At today closing
SCI + 4.911 SML = $2.23 + 4.911 X $0.2 = $3.21
To those who are still holding smelly SML and green SCI by sucking Panadols; probably the worst is over!
Uncle8888's retirement planning on future inflation rate @ 2.5% looking reasonable based on past 20 yrs back-testing data points!
Taking highest inflation rate that will hit him badly is the cost of health care at $1.58 in 2020 to $1 in 2000.
The inflation rate for 20 yrs is about 2.2%
This article was updated on 30 May 2021.
We’ve all heard our parents and/or grandparents lament over how expensive things have gotten in Singapore over the years. The main culprit for this is inflation – the higher the inflation, the more expensive things become compared to the previous year.
No matter how frugal we may try to be, we will see ourselves gradually spending more as inflation will increase the prices of even the most basic daily necessities.
The Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStats) keeps a detailed record for price changes in goods and services that are important aspects of life in Singapore on a yearly basis. These include:
Saturday, 24 July 2010
Read? Get Rich Courses or Coaching? - II
The trainers themselves are millionaires so we can trust them on good will to educate us and not seeing us as their source of revenues to make more money for themselves?
Uncle8888 once also think like that. So naive!
Spur29 May 2021 at 04:05:00 GMT+8
Uncle8888,
In the spirit of refresh, here's an interview couple days ago with Stanley Druckenmiller.
Lots of good stuff about how he invests & what he thinks makes a good investor. Also talks a fair bit about cryptos & tech.
Some of the stuff he says are similar to Jim Rogers; no surprise as both worked under George Soros.
Enjoy!
PS: shld be a treat for Smol :)
Reply Delete
Read? Stanley Druckenmiller interview; Buffett on diversification; Phishing text messages
You can laugh or poke at Panda/Koala retail investors! No problem as they don't deserve to be Millionaires from the market! They don't learn to catch up with the latest and savvy investing trends! They deserve to be left behind and become extinct!
Read? Blog posts relating to Concentrate
On making concentrated, high-conviction bets:
When I’ve looked at all the investors [that] have very large reputations – Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, George Soros – they all only have one thing in common.
And it’s the exact opposite of what they teach in a business school. It is to make large, concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction.
They’re not buying 35 or 40 names and diversifying.
I don’t know whether you remember that Icahn a few years ago put $5 billion into Apple. I don’t think he was worth more than $10 billion when he did that.
[In 1992] when I went in to tell Soros that I was going to short 100% of the fund in the British pound against the Deutschmark, he looked at me with great disdain.
He thought the story was good enough that I should be doing 200%, because it was sort of a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
So, [these investors] concentrate their holdings. This is very counterintuitive.
In my thinking, [concentrating your bets] decreases your overall risk because where you tend to be in trouble is if you have 35 or 40 names.
If you start paying attention to one. If you have a big, massive position, it has your attention.
My favorite quote of all time is maybe Mark Twain: “Put all your eggs in one basket and watch the basket carefully.”
I tend to think that’s what great investors do.
On knowing when to sell and using stop losses:
The other thing to me [that makes a good investor] is you have to know how and when to take a loss. I’ve been in business since 1976 as a money manager.
I’ve never used the stop loss. Not once. It’s the dumbest concept I’ve ever heard. [If a stock goes down 15%] I’m automatically out.
But I’ve also never hung onto a security if the reason I bought it has changed. That’s when you need to sell.
If I buy X security for A, B, C, and D reasons, and those reasons are no longer valid, [I sell].
Whether I have a loss or a gain, that stock doesn’t know whether you have a loss or a gain.
You know, it is not important. Your ego is not what this is about. What this is about is you’re making money.
So, if I have a thesis and it doesn’t bear out – which happens often with me, I’m often wrong – just get out and move on.
Because I said earlier: if you’re using the most disciplined approach, you can find something else. There’s no reason to hang on to any security where you don’t have great conviction
3Ms in Investing - Method, Mind and Money Management!
Our account size really matters in long-term investing - CW8888
Newbie continues to do well!
Another data point to show that Luck Factor AND market timing; and psychology of losing money and deploying cash is NOT the same!
Read? Unexpected Token Of Appreciation From Follower (Ex-colleague)!
Uncle8888 also believes in the element of Luck factor and our Account Size really matters!
Read? Lucky Or Unlucky When You First Get Started Investing Over Market Cycles (2)
Investing is a Game of Capital. No capital then Game over! Read? My Own Psychology Of Losses: Losing Money And Deploying Cash Is Not The Same! (3)
Read? Sell In May And Go Away???
One more trading day on next Monday in May!
Not happening for May 2021! :-)
This morning read the case of police officers and dementia woman at Yishun and reminded him that dementia is scary and can be unavoidable!
Uncle8888 has been through with his late parents-in-law with Dementia and more understanding and alerts to elderly folks and try to help whenever he could help.
More folks should watch out for those dementia and try to help them if possible.
Hopefully; when Uncle8888 is one of those dementia folks and kindness may come to him.
Uncle8888 is paying forward!
Read? Blog posts relating to Dementia
Hmm ... reading this in investment blogoshere reminded Uncle8888 who has also personally lost money on audited fraudulent s-chips where fixed deposits and cash balances in "banks" were also fake!
Quote : "I try to put my money at the top platform/dapp (decentralized application) that has undergone audit(s) but when it happens"
Read? SMOL: Trust But Verify???
"Gurus" are gurus. They are not stupid. They are very good at words, sweet talking, clever marketing and counter objections; otherwise they should have long gone.
Like those Snake Oil men in the past; if we kept seeing the same bunch of snake oil men at every Chinese Wayang Show that meant they have became successful businessmen selling some snake oil to willing buyers. Right?
This was how late Guru would counter back and Uncle8888 learned something from him.
Trust; but You can't really verify!
Late Guru's counter argument.
We trust audited statements from the Big Four. Right?
But it doesn't mean auditors have verified there is no uncovered fakes or fraud! We have seen some audited and listed companies have been faking or fraud so well until one day they were uncovered and start failing.
Trust is far more important than audited statements?
Trust! That is all you need to do. Soon easy money will come to your pocket. Trust me! I am here to help you. Why? Because I have made millions!
Our human weakness is that we will tend to trust more when it sounds so easy, so sweet and so promising; and especially when these came from the mouth of millionaires or from someone who are appearing so rich!
Read? S$3 billion in CPF top-ups made last year, 40% more than 2019
Wah! Juicy pots of Gold in CPF waiting for fund managers to convince CPF members that they are generally not good at DIY investing!
Come, come, come to us to secure your retirement planning.
Did you see more such Big Ads to invest your CPF at many MRT stations?
What we can't really cut down or save on these health care or medical expenses in COVID-19!
No travelling expenses; but medical expenses will always be there and rising as we are getting older and body resistance and immunity getting weaker. New health issues may also slowly surfacing up for medical attention.
Health is wealth!
Read? When Your Bank RM Called??? (7)
6 months of lower loan interest rate and then for how long will it stay below or around the projected 23 yrs loan duration of average rate @ 2.5%?
Read? When Your Bank RM Called??? (6)
Read? Non Consistent Stream of Retirement Income From Investment Portfolio In Local SGX Stock Market
Like any good Sales person or Snake Oil; they can bring out the Greed/Fear in us or fill up the Hole in the Heart?
It is nothing but an illusion of wealth when the Bull charged ahead!
A short moment of happiness of hitting All Time High; and then the mood in the market changed so fast! Bear coming? LOL!
COVID-19 Round 2 War Chest deployment akan datang?
STI falls 2.18 per cent to 9-week low as Singapore imposes social curbs
FRI, MAY 14, 2021 - 6:05 PM
ANITA GABRIELanitag@sph.com.sg@AnitaGabrielBT
SINGAPORE'S key Straits Times Index fell more than 3 per cent mid-Friday as fresh lockdown rules to fight rising Covid-19 cases raised concerns about the mending economy.
The STI plunged the most in nearly a year by 68.24 points or 2.18 per cent to finish at a nine-week low of 3,055.02 on Friday. The losses made the local bourse an outlier in the region as its major peers finished the week on a higher note following modest gains overnight in Wall Street as inflation worries eased.
Week-on-week, the STI has lost 145.2 points or 4.5 per cent after closing red every day in a holiday-shortened trading week.
The emergence of major clusters at the airport and a local hospital, which prompted the latest round of restrictions, serves as a stark reminder on how delicate the recovery from the pandemic is, albeit fortified by the ongoing vaccine rollout.
"Tightened social restrictions will effectively freeze the recovery of private consumption in the short term," remarked Yu Liuqing of The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU), adding however that disruption to businesses will be less pronounced than the circuit breaker period last year as businesses have adapted to working from home.
Turnover was high with 3.52 billion units worth S$3.22 billion changing hands. In the broader market, decliners outpaced gainers with 467 counters down and 127 up.
Singtel retreated 9 Singapore cents or 3.7 per cent to S$2.32 and was the day's seventh most actively traded with 72 million shares worth S$168 million done. The telco said on Friday morning that it was launching a strategic review of two key units and warned that its second half and full year ended-March results are expected to include net exceptional losses of S$839 million and S$1.21 billion respectively owing to impairments.
Frencken Group closed unchanged at S$1.42. The company released a stellar first quarter update earlier this week on better product mix and margins. DBS Group Research issued a buy rating on the counter with a 12-month target price of S$1.98 given its resilient earnings, thanks to its diversified portfolio, and higher contribution from the semiconductor segment.
Read? Coasting Financial Independence / Barista FI – More Realistic, Attainable and Balance
When Uncle8888 read the above! Ha! Ha!
He has been there doing it for years before finally closed his 10 yrs planned KPI!
When our company is into Bell Curve performance appraisal i.e. someone has to be at the other end of the Bell Curve but it can be us willingly; our immediate boss may appreciate our contribution to "fair" bonus distribution in his/her team without any resentment from you! "Fair" compensation for a willing Coaster! Why not? LOL!
Read? Why Pursue Financial Freedom? (6)
CW8888: When someone has huge commercially vested interests into their own pocket. They can both play God and Devil! When they played God, Believers may come and join the Party; and then they turned Devil to suck Believers' money
In the market, there are always be matched sellers to buyers and Spur said : Always sellers that matched buyers -- but not necessarily at the price you like to sell or buy LOL.
Same. Same. Snake Oil always around in the Investment Blogoshere, social medias and forums to suck in Bei Kambing!
Always remember this; when we are in the market; we are always Competitiors in Buy and Sell Queue! Our own money is Real and we have to make real money from other real players in the market!
Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (6) - About time to refresh it!
Read? Where does the money come from??? (2)
[BENGALURU] Tesla Inc has suspended the use of bitcoin to purchase its vehicles, chief executive officer Elon Musk said in a tweet on Wednesday, citing concerns about the use of fossil fuel for bitcoin mining.
Bitcoin, the world's biggest digital currency, fell more than 7 per cent after the tweet and was trading at US$52,669.
Mr Musk said Tesla would not sell any bitcoin, and intends to use bitcoin for transactions as soon as mining transitions to more sustainable energy.
"We are also looking at other cryptocurrencies that use 1 per cent of bitcoin's energy/transaction," Mr Musk said.
Mr Musk said in March Tesla that customers can buy its electric vehicles with bitcoin.
If we depend too much on investment income from our investment portfolio during our retirement; it can be quite disruptive and not sustainable across market and economic cycles. We really need to have other sources of stable income before entering retirement or FIRE. It is NOT like when our investment income exceeds household expenses; we are ready to FIRE! Chun bo?
2021 H1 dividends are all counted and also includes some trading income. It is about 6.7% and hope that 2021 will NOT be setting a new low below 8%. A new low in the retirement will be super sianz!
There are always Sellers that matched Buyers!
Sell in May and go away will then match Buy in May and hold till next Apr? LOL!
Let see what happen at end May!
Any investing quotes from non-commercially vested Gurus and even wise words from your personally known or close investing sifus cannot sink into our investing mind until we are hit by deep shit in the market and learnt them in the hard way! Same as Uncle8888 and finally understood his Sifu's wise words.
It took a deep shit of pains of losing the sight of reaching FI in 1 to 2 years time to finally learnt!
Read? Chasing the last $100K (last mile) and may fall hard! (2)
Read? My dream of pursuing financial independence by 55 in 2011!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
So my sifu is right!
It is far better to regret not making more money than to feel sorry of losing your hard earned money.
My sifu started trading and investing at age of 18 following the foot-steps of his father into the stock market.
Choose Regret or Sorry?
It is in our own hands. It is our own making!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Uncle8888's Sifu wise words: "It is far better to REGRET not making more than to feel SORRY of losing our hard earned money!".
This is definitely aligned to our human nature and biasness.
When we cannot resist it then we should follow it!
Be like rain water; follow it down stream to whatever it goes!
Read? Are Future Market Crises Our Opportunities???
Finally; COVID-19 has pushed GLC companies like SPH, CPL, SCI, Keppel etc to improve shareholder value by cutting rotting parts!
Read? You See That Room Over There Full of Millionaires!
Anyone personally knows any Cisco employees managed to sell to become real millionaire during Dotcom bubble?
Illusionary wealth in the stock market can unexpectedly shrink very quickly while we are still hoping that it will recover to its past glory.
Currently; which room in which company is full of millionaires?
Telsa?
SEA?
Read? Time in the Market > Timing the Market??? (4)
Read? No Blog Post On Investing??? (2)
Many times hearing DBS CIO mentioning Barbell investing strategy!
Barbell?
Is Timing the market is also another form of long-term Barbell investing strategy for patient retail i.e. earning low interests without losing any money in the war chest and crossing over to higher risk in expectation of higher return and nothing in between before the Bull-Bear cycle?
Right?
Hmm ... do we really spend less after retirement if based on per headcount instead of using total household expenses for married couples with children?
Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (14)
Kep Corp, Sembcorp Ind and DBS all XD liao!
Timing the market and then time in the market for passive income
From Panadols to ease heartache across market cycles of Bulls and Bears with smiles, regrets, hope and illusion over two decades in the market until his hairs turned completely grey. LOL!
1. Kep Corp (Sep 2001) : 20 yrs, average yearly 26% yield on cost (Freehold)
2. Sembcorp Ind (Dec 2002) : 19 yrs, average yearly 20% yield on cost (Freehold)
3. DBS (Apr 2003) : 18 yrs, average yearly 9% yield on cost (Freehold)
4. Sembcorp Ind (Sep 2003) : 18 yrs, average yearly 10% yield on cost (Freehold)
5. Sembcorp Ind (Oct 2005) : 16 yrs, average yearly 5% yield on cost (83%) - another 4 to 5 yrs to Freehold
Sharing the truth on example of Rich Assets and Good Assets through real life experience!
So what when you are younger in Rich Assets e.g. CPF Millionaire! Know the difference between Good Assets and Rich Assets before we realized it too late! The moral of the story, can we just follow the best example of building retirement wealth without seriously knowing the depth of buffering of our Rich Assets and Good Assets in our net worth. Life crisis may happen when we are not expecting it to happen!
With several insurance policies, CPF saving, investment portfolio and a fully paid 4 room HDB flat; the counting of money showed that it was not that bad. His family should be able to "tong" through the next 15 years without too much financial hardship.
In fact his CPF saving, investment portfolio and a fully paid 4 room HDB flat already made him a Millionaire in assets value; but he couldn't afford to take 1 to 2 months no-pay leave after using up his 90 days hospitalization leaves. This life experience has taught him experiential wisdom to see the difference between Rich and Wealthy.
A million dollar in asset value can make us feel rich; but not necessary we are wealthy enough to afford thing that we want even it is just about $X,XXX in value.
Read? The Difference Between Smart Financial Advice and Smart Financial Advice For You (3)
Read? Counting So Hard On How Much Money Is Enough? (2)
Read? 15th Year Anniversary
In the recent years in social media and investment blogosphere in Singapore; so many loud voices on how to be better CPF savers to become CPF Millionaires before 65!
Lack of alternative voices from successful CPFIS members who have made it as investors or they are smiling in the background when they read those articles???
Read? The Dilemma Of Young Personal Financial Investment Influencers (Refresh)
Lucky, lucky, lucky and most lucky is Uncle8888 did CPF OA to SA transfer ONLY ONCE; otherwise his CPFIS net investment return will definitely be smaller!
The $125K or $250K or $500K Question is ....
Is leaving 35% of CPF OA to earn 2.5% compounded interests as CPFIS War Chest worth the opportunity costs of waiting for Great Singapore Sales in SGX?
Read? Second New Record Set in 2021 For Investment Portfolio!!!
Enjoy another moment of shiokness as Koala/Panda investor in local SGX!
Read? Bernie Madoff, mastermind of giant Ponzi scheme, dies in US prison
Read? Singapore Trader’s Lavish Lifestyle Allegedly Fueled By $740 Million Fraud
Read? Posts relating to frauds and scams
Real People, Real Ex-colleagues into Sunshine, Oilpods, Land-banking (one of them even resigned to become full-time agent to get more other colleagues into this land-banking fraud. More died together! It had to be really good because someone has gone full-time!)
End of crisis or too much cash or leverage up rotting on hand so better to FOMO then letting it rot farther???
Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading on Thursday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 34,000 threshold for the first time ever.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10 points. S&P 500 futures traded near the flatline and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.2%.
During regular trading hours, the blue-chip Dow rose 300 points to top the 34,000 milestone amid blowout economic data. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gained more than 1% each on Thursday.
“The Dow’s push through 34,000 is a signal that investor appetite for future growth prospects is spilling over into more value-oriented names,” said Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network. “The demand for industrials and more cyclically-oriented areas should continue as the vaccines take hold and earnings potentially come in higher than originally expected.”
Investor sentiment was boosted by economic data on Thursday that pointed to a rebound in consumer spending and the jobs market.
Retail sales jumped 9.8% in March as additional stimulus sent consumer spending soaring, topping the Dow Jones estimate of a 6.1% gain.
Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since March 2020. The Labor Department reported 576,000 first-time filings for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 10. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a total of 710,000
Nowadays; more and more Fund Managers are thinking on ways to fatten their commissions or AUM/AUA fees by telling you investing CPF fund is so easy and PASSIVE! Show you the fund performance! Bom pi pi return as we are still in secular Bull Run since 2009 GFC!
Uncle8888 fully agreed! Read this? Your CPF Investment Account : Uncle8888's foolish advice again!!! (5)
Proved to yourself that you can consistently perform better than CPFIS 2.5% CAGR interests growth with your cash investment before touching your CPFIS!
CPF money is paper money before 55; but when you reach 55 this or next year you smile. CPF OA 2.5% is currently the best FD without any lock up period. Anytime you want to withdraw interests to spend freely; CPF can PayNow! Within 15 sec! Money into your pocket now! Hee Hee!
Read? Posts relating to CPFIS
Walan! Gap widen up! Can STI Bulls FOMO to catch up with Uncle DOW?
U.S. stocks climbed to record levels and closed out Friday at their session highs as Wall Street wrapped up the week with solid gains amid rising reopening optimism.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 297.03 points to 33,800.60, notching a record closing high. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 4,128.80, hitting its third straight record close. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.5% to 13,900.19.
Stocks linked to the recovering economy led the gains again amid the accelerating vaccine rollout. Carnival Corp rose 2.6% after getting two upgrades on Wall street amid pent-up demand and potential summer restart. General Electric climbed more than 1%. JPMorgan added 0.8%.
Read? Venture Corp : Bought $19.18 for Round 2
Round 2 : ROC +6.4%, 40 days, B $19.18 S $20.48
Round 1 : ROC +1.3%, 16 days, B $19.88 S $19.20
Look like STI is closing up with Uncle DOW!
Did you see it?
U.S. stocks climbed to record highs on Monday as a strong bounce in U.S. job growth and solid data in the services sector raised expectations for a swift economic recovery from the pandemic.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 373.98 points to 33,527.19, a record closing high. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% to 4,077.91, also hitting a new record close. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also climbed 1.7% to 13,705.59.
The Labor Department reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 in March, the highest since August 2020, while the unemployment rate fell to 6%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting an increase of 675,000 and a jobless rate of 6%.
Meanwhile, a measure of U.S. services industry activity soared to a record high in March. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing activity index jumped to a reading of 63.7 last month, the highest level in the survey’s history.
Read? Second New Record Set in 2018 For Investment Portfolio!!! (2)
STI cheong ah!
Another new records breaking year in 2021?
22 years across market cycles of Bulls and Bears; Uncle8888 is wise enough to recognize it is just another moment to enjoy the shiokness of illusionary wealth in the stock market. The real investment income from dividends and trading gains from 2017 to 2021 has been transferred to his bank spending account and won't be surrendered back to the next Bear. Retiree liao! Bo pian!
Read? Compound Interest is not the same as Compound Returns (4)
Read? What Is The Real Cause Of Low CPF Payout In Some Mederka Generation???
Read? Who Are CPF Members Who Lost Their Money??? (2)
Read? Compounding Investment Return Pornography???
Read? How Soon Should You Start Investing Your CPFIS And SRS?
Read? Turnaround from your chart 2008-2012?
Two sets of data points to validate personal investing strategy on 3M's - Method, Mind and Money Management.
Money management has changed from re-investing investment income for compounding investment return to spending off 100% of yearly investment since 2017. But, unfortunately; Uncle88888 has missed the opportunity to compound his investment income from 2010 to 2019 as his war chest is rotting in the bank and CPF OA for 10 years!
Similar or different pattern between 22 years and 15 months in local SGX market doing DIY stock pick?
22 years (Jan 2000 to Apr 2021) - Total number of different stocks bought and sold; or still holding = 59
15 months (Feb 2020 to Apr 2021)- Total number of different stocks bought and sold; or still holding = 13
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