Focus Group Discussion

So far; Uncle8888 has participated in three focus group discussion sessions earning $80, $100 and $120 i.e. total $300 since his retirement from full-time job in Sep 2016. 

Previously; he was not keen in monetizing his half day annual leave to attend such session; but nowadays it is different story when he has plenty of free time to burn and also with no additional transport cost by leveraging on his $60 monthly concession pass. Okay lah! 

He has earned more than 60 cai fun! 

On Blog Leave 24 May to 2 Jun 2018

3 nights each in Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka

Since this is one way trip flying into Tokyo and bullet train from Tokyo to Kyoto, and then train from Kyoto to Osaka and flying back home from Osaka. 7 days JR Rail pass of JPY 29,110 doesn't seen cheaper?

Someone previously on this one way trip and using 7 days JR Rail pass?

The Open Secret to 'Multi-Baggers' (100% to 300% ROI and even more!)

This is an open secret ... nothing secret about it!


Sunday, 30 October 2011

Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (29)

Add on chart contributed by Spur ..

Great Inequality? Where? Stock Market?

Hmm ... stock market!

Great inequality happens in the stock market!

Inequality in account size! 

Inequality in access to financial materials, insiders and Management!

Inequality in access to high quality and timely financial reports

Inequality in access to ... blah blah blah

As retail traders or investors; we don't have any serious doubts with these inequalities in the market.

We believe we can made more and more money in the stock market. Some may even power up their investment return through leverages.

OPM : Other People's Money

Leverage (using OPM) through borrowing or margin is fun as you may achieve higher ROC on your own capital invested after  deducting the cost of leverages. But; leverage is also known as double edged sword! 

Another way of using OPM and feeling shiok and without the threat of double edged sword is ....

Read? Free Shares From ComfortDelGro

Take back your own invested capital and let the profits or OPM from the market continue to run and collect dividends.

Shiok man!

When your account size gets larger; lagi lagi shiok or sibei shiok as it is OPM in the market! 

How to scare of market volatility?

That is passive income! 

No capital at risk! 

Ho ho!

Fundamental Analysis : As Outsiders How Far Into The Future Can We Analyze Company Business?

Read? Part-Time And Free Lance Jobs (2)


Somehow this thought came into Uncle8888's investing mind on fundamental analysis as retail investors.

As outsiders how far into the future can we as retail investors analyze company's business/fundamental based on publicly disclosed materials and quarterly financial reports.

We can analyze the past but how far into the future?

Uncle8888 started this 8 HWW (Hours Work Week) last June 2017with 16 outlets in 8 retail malls in Hougang, Orchard, Bugis+, Doby Ghaut and Raffles City. 

In less than one year into this job; he realized tough competition in F&B space.


Jun 2017 : 16 outlets in 8 shopping malls

3th month: Aug 2017

1 outlet closed shop and left with 15 outlets in 8 shopping malls

4th month : Sep 2017 

1 outlet closed shop and left with 14 outlets in 8 shopping malls


As outsider he has started seeing the fundamental of this company is deteriorating and business is slowing down and going nowhere.



10th month: Mar 2018

1 outlet closed shop and left with 13 outlets in 8 shopping malls

11th month: Apr 2018

1 outlet closed shop and left with 12 outlets in 8 shopping malls

11th month: Apr 2018

After renovation; the same owner re-opened with new branding  and back with 13 outlets in 8 shopping malls

12th month: May 2018

The owner acquired three outlets by one of the famous bak tu teh chains ; two in the same shopping malls and one outlet in another mall in Orchard and add the 4th outlet with new brand in the same mall.

Now 17 outlets in 9 shopping malls.

All of the sudden; this fundamental turned around and looking good. The weekly revenue from the three bak tu teh easily double the previous three closed outlets.

Has the owner over paid for the four outlets?

As outsider; it is not possible to know. Right?

The moral of story?

As outsiders how far into the future can we as retail investors analyze company's business/fundamental based on publicly disclosed materials and quarterly financial reports.

Inspired By Outliers???

Most of us are inspired by life stories of outliers; but most of  us will not be able to move into outliers segment no matters how hard we can try! 

Bell curve! 

Outliers have extraordinary or exceptional talents AND/OR they have spent extraordinary or exceptional time and effort to reach that level. Most of us don't!

Aim for the Median if we are below the median and it is achievable. 

When we are above the median; give ourselves thumb up since we have done well!

Another Reason To F.I.R.E or F.I.R.e After 40s

According to one of the 3 authors of the study, Colin McKenzie, professor at Keio University, the level of intellectual stimulation could depend on working hours. Even though work is a double-edged sword that stimulates brain activity, working more than forty hours per week can result in stress and fatigue that may have a detrimental impact on cognitive functions.


To sum up, full-time work can have a negative impact on the brain of people aged over forty.


Read? Experts Claim that People Over 40 Shouldn’t Work More than 40 Hours per Week!



CW8888: Is that the reason that many want to reach FI ASAP at younger age? :-)

Dumb Or Patient Investor???

Read? Our Desired Investing Outcome: The Pareto Principle (80/20)


Pareto Law : 80% of the time waiting for 20% of the stocks in the investment portfolio to generate 80% investment return at portfolio level.

Business Leverages And Personal Leverages. (2)

Read? Business Leverages And Personal Leverages.

It is world between personal bankruptcy and private limited/limited company bankruptcy!

Don't anyhow hor!

Personal bankruptcy may drag in the whole family together to suffer!


What do we know about Donald Trump's four bankruptcies?

Trump describes these bankruptcies as if no one was hurt in the process, except high rollers and sharks. He says that he has started hundreds of companies, but only used bankruptcy proceedings four times


He and his family were never hurt by any of these four bankruptcies!

Unlocking SRS At 62 And Avoiding Being Taxed

Now Uncle8888 becomes low income earner  who doesn't have to pay any tax!

This Sep 2018 he will unlock his SRS and draws out $12K per year over the next few years to avoid paying any tax. 

That is the primary objective of SRS! Tax deduction! 

SRS will be his source of fixed income upon 62 and then RA upon 65.

$12K from SRS and $24K from CPF OA & SA


Fixed income for 2019 will be $36K!

He also into assets allocation! Hee hee!

Warren Buffet On Market Timing???

Hmm ... what can retail investors learn from him on market timing?

Companies in deep shit that need cash injection to survive will know who has that cash resources to save them.

At 2018 AGM; he mentioned he is still waiting for phone calls to deploy cash. 

Market looks for him and that why he no need to bother with market timing. Naturally market timing at its best!

My Own Psychology Of Losses: Losing Money And Deploying Cash Is Not The Same!

From 2000 to 2003 - two crises Sep 11 WTC Attack in 2001 and SARS in 2003

Uncle8888 came to the stock market at the wrong market timing with his large war chest i.e. 23 years of saving including CPFIS at age of 44.

STI was at its peak in Jan 2000 and then crashed towards its low in Sep 2001. The market recovered in 2002 and then crashed again in 2003 due to SARS.


Those days from Jan 2000 to 2003; he didn't have ill or bad feeling on paper losses as he was in mindset of deploying his rotting cash in his war chest into the stock market to create wealth. In his mind; he was deploying cash and not losing money!


But from 2007 to 2009; his feeling of falling market and paper losses was totally different. Towards end 2008; he has developed that ill feeling of losing money in the stock market. 

WTF and bang his head! Why like that!

Now he understands his own psychology of losses!

Losing money and deploying cash is not the same!

Why he must have larger war chest for the next market crash?

Mind Flip (6)

Read? Mind Flip (5)

Yes. This book Rich Dad. Poor Dad has flipped his mind into pursuing financial independence and get out of rat race!

No parroting Robert into property investment. That is how Robert got rich; but Uncle8888 believe in himself and invest as Panda or Koala in local stock market. SGX only. 

Only local stocks! 

No Gold or Silver. 

Of course; no bitcoins!

So risky since no assets diversification!

The Most Important Rule of Investing???

This Rule :

Never invest money that you can't afford to lose or willing to lose!


Sound investment advice???

Hmm ....  


What if you have already lost what you can afford or willing to lose?


Do you have adequate capital to recover from these losses?

How about changing to this Rule?

Never invest money that you can't afford to lose or willing to lose until you have adequate war chest to recover.

We need a few potential big winners to recover. Do you have those capital to find these few winners after losing?

Can We Learn From Warren Buffet In His 2018 AGM???

In his annual letter to shareholders in February, Buffett warned that the new reporting rule would produce some "truly wild and capricious swings." He also noted that "gyrations of that magnitude will swamp the truly important numbers that describe our performance." 

In a statement accompanying today's earnings report, Buffett, the firm's chairman and CEO, urged investors to focus on Berkshire's operating businesses and not earnings results based on fluctuations in its nearly $173 billion stock portfolio. He says the stock portfolio can see fluctuations of up to $10 billion in any given quarter.



Focus on operating business i.e operating income and not volatility in investment value.

Warren Buffer is business owner investor while most of us are retail investor as either employee or self-employed owning a job.


Business owner can focus on operating income or business and can ignore paper losses without feeling very bad!


How about us?


Business owners: Business operating income and investment portfolio

Job owners: Earned income and investment portfolio

Can we really focus on earned income after tax and ignore paper losses in our investment portfolio?

Inject monthly capital into our investment portfolio while sitting on large paper losses and receiving dividends as Panadols and still feeling great as investor?

Focus on earned income and don't bother with paper losses due to market volality

Wah!

Steady man!

Now Warren Buffet is affected by market volatility???

Read? Berkshire Hathaway reports 48.7% first quarter operating gain as shareholders prepare to meet


CW8888: Hmm ... Now Warren Buffet is affected by market volatility as the Rule of the Game has changed. 


Because of accounting rule changes, however, the conglomerate recorded a first quarter loss of $1.1 billion, compared to net income of $4 billion in last year's first quarter

The accounting changes meant Berkshire had to write down the value of its investment portfolio by $6.3 billion in the first quarter

Berkshire Hathaway reported a 48.7 percent first quarter gain in operating earnings, to $5.3 billion, as its insurance underwriting business swung back into the green and railroads, utility and other businesses posted gains.

Because of accounting rule changes that apply to its $170 billion stock portfolio, however, the conglomerate recorded a first quarter loss of $1.1 billion compared to net income of $4 billion in last year's first quarter.

Berkshire marked down the value of those investments nearly $6.3 billion.

Warren Buffett had already warned shareholders in his annual letter about the accounting changes, saying the new rule could "produce some truly wild and capricious swings" in the value of the stock portfolio that would "swamp the truly important numbers that describe our operating performance."


Buffett, who is preparing to lead the company's annual shareholder meeting later on Saturday morning, told CNBC on Friday the company acquired another 75 million shares of Apple during the first quarter, adding to its already large holdings. It also exited its remaining holdings of IBM.

Counting The Opportunity Cost Of Rotting Cash (2)

Read? Counting The Opportunity Cost Of Rotting Cash



” If you have a worry problem, do these three things: 

1. Ask yourself: “What is the worst that can possibly happen?” 

2. Prepare to accept it if you have to. 

3. Then calmly proceed to improve on the worst.” 

(Carnegie 49)


Is having a large war chest a serious drag on our investment portfolio performance?

Look left. Look right. Look centre. Left, right, and centre.

Uncle888 can't really figure out how serious is rotting cash affecting his investment portfolio performance?

His investment performance is largely determined by Mr. Market at Point X over any measuring period.

Market timing is important???

We Can Learn To Invest Like Warren Buffet In Value Investing???

Of course. We can!

There are quite a number of trainers in Singapore can train you in value investing and then you on your way to become nano value investor like Warren Buffet.

Since Jan 2000 when Uncle8888 became interested and serious in long -term investing and short-term trading; he has been following financial news day and nights and definitely news on Warren Buffet is a must read.

One thing for sure on Warren Buffet that catches his eyes!

Warren Buffet can talk UP the market and talk DOWN the market!

You can meh?

What did you read on Warren Buffet on his latest talk on his investment?

How Much Is Enough To Replace Earned Income From Full Time Employment In Singapore? F.I, F.I.R.E or F.I.R.e

Title   : Table 19A. Average and Median Monthly Household Income from Work Per Household Member (Excluding Employer CPF Contributions) Among Resident and Resident Employed Households, 2000 - 2017

CW8888: More than $2K per month per household member should be comfortable enough to live in Singapore.  But, we still need assets growth to generate future cash flow to meet years of inflation down the F.I. road. This may be the hardest part for those seeking assets growth while spending on portfolio income generated by current assets.

As Long Term Investors; We Will Do Well??? (2)

Read? As Long Term Investors; We Will Do Well???


Bruce3 May 2018 at 10:48:00 GMT+8

Uncle8888, 7.3% over 18years, HUAT!

from the info i have:
a) STI started Jan 2000 at 2231, 3573@2018/04/16, CAGR=2.6% (this however w/o dividend contribution, if assume there is so-called 'pseudo' 3% yield avg, CAGR is 5.6%)
Uncle8888's skill not bad, beat index a lot.

b) STI ETF started in 2002 April(when STI stood at 1730), based on its website info:
till 2018/04/12, 10y, 4.36%, 
since inception(11 Apr 2002) 16yr,7.52%(this includes dividend contribution)
it shows it is difficult to beat ETF fund, even though it is not time horizon exactly aligned comparison.



How to achieve 16 yr,7.52% (this includes dividend contribution) in STI ETF?

This performance of 16 yrs, 7.52% is achieved by lump sum investing at its inception or market timing at Point X. For real investing on the ground by retail investors over market cycles since 2002 by buying high and selling low or buying low and selling high over the measuring period; it is most unlikely to be able to achieve 7.52%.

Lump sum investing at the right buy price and add on accumulation of good yield over the measuring period will achieve superior return.

As Long Term Investors; We Will Do Well???

Updated for those Gurus are still active and their performance result up to 2017

What Do You Need To Achieve During A Lifetime Of Successful Investing?

These are the wise words from Peter Lynch ...

All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out. - Peter Lynch

Total no of different stocks still holding or already sold : 56

Spending Less During Retirement???

This month, May will be another higher expenses with an unplanned trip to Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka for 9 nights to tag along with his son's trip to Japan.

When Is The Next STI Crash?

STI closed at 3,614.

If you don't have any significant positions in DBS, OCC and UOB. 

There is nothing to be happy! 

Super sianz if you have sold way too early. 

Bang head for cutting losses during GFC!


The DBS, OCBC and UOB together is 42% of STI!