I started serious Investing Journey in Jan 2000 to create wealth through long-term investing and short-term trading; but as from April 2013 my Journey in Investing has changed to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Since 2017 after retiring from full-time job as employee; I am moving towards Investing Nirvana - Freehold Investment Income for Life investing strategy where 100% of investment income from portfolio investment is cashed out to support household expenses i.e. not a single cent of re-investing!

It is 57% (2017 to Aug 2022) to the Land of Investing Nirvana - Freehold Income for Life!


Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

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Showing posts with label Education - Retirement - Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Education - Retirement - Inflation. Show all posts

Monday, 31 May 2021

Singapore Inflation Rate In 2020: Here’s How Much Prices Of Everyday Goods And Services Have Increased

Uncle8888's retirement planning on future inflation rate @ 2.5% looking reasonable based on past 20 yrs back-testing data points!

Taking highest inflation rate that will hit him badly is the cost of health care at $1.58 in 2020 to $1 in 2000.

The inflation rate for 20 yrs is about 2.2%











Read? Singapore Inflation Rate In 2020: Here’s How Much Prices Of Everyday Goods And Services Have Increased

This article was updated on 30 May 2021.

We’ve all heard our parents and/or grandparents lament over how expensive things have gotten in Singapore over the years. The main culprit for this is inflation – the higher the inflation, the more expensive things become compared to the previous year.

No matter how frugal we may try to be, we will see ourselves gradually spending more as inflation will increase the prices of even the most basic daily necessities.

The Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStats) keeps a detailed record for price changes in goods and services that are important aspects of life in Singapore on a yearly basis. These include:



Saturday, 5 September 2020

How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation??? (3)

 Read? How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation??? (2)

It is more important to track our own personal and household expenses to have on the ground true feeling of year-on-year inflationary impact as we don't spend based on nation's statistical inflation numbers. We all spend differently based on our lifestyle inflation!

19 years of data points for projecting future household expenses

It is unlikely to be travelling to overseas for vacation so the next four monthly household expenses should not change much.

Our practical concerns should be on health care inflation where it is difficult to find other cheaper alternatives. 











Sunday, 31 May 2020

War Chest As Calibrator To Regulate Cash Flow Across Market And Economics Cycle During Retirement


calibrator

Also found in: Thesaurus, Medical, Encyclopedia.
cal·i·brate  (kăl′ə-brāt′)

tr.v. cal·i·brat·ed, cal·i·brat·ing, cal·i·brates

1. To check, adjust, or determine by comparison with a standard (the graduations of a quantitative measuring instrument): calibrate a thermometer.

2.a. To make corrections in; adjust: calibrated the polling procedures to ensure objectivity.


How many of us as retail investors planning our cash flow as retirees thinking on the role of our War Chest?


What else can War Chest do other than seizing opportunity costs during market crashes ?

War Chest as Calibrator of cash flow across market and economic cycles when dividends are cut during bad times? 

Anyone?

Companies set to deliver $20.1b this year following circuit breaker measures: Report

Singapore companies are expected to deliver US$14.2 billion (S$20.1 billion) in dividends this year, down 4.5 per cent from the US$14.8 billion shelled out last year, a report noted yesterday.

It said the decline comes amid a stark outlook following the implementation of circuit breaker measures on April 7, which are projected to shrink gross domestic product by more than 4 per cent.

COVID-19 has offered Uncle8888 good insight into his War Chest as Calibrator to manage future cash flow as retiree!























Tuesday, 7 January 2020

Is Inflation More Scary Than Losses In The Stock Market???


We invest so we can overcome year on year inflation! Right?

But ....

Which is more scary???

Inflation or losses if you are not that good in investing over market cycles.

Which one kills your money faster?








Sunday, 30 December 2018

Have We truly Understand How Inflation Affects Us And Our Retirement Planning? (2)


Read? Have We truly Understand How Inflation Affects Us And Our Retirement Planning?

So far based on Uncle8888's past 17 years (2002 to 2018) actual data points; he is not too concerned on inflationary impact on future household expenses as he still has some fat to trim during those difficult years.

He is actually spending 8% below the projected multi-years inflationary rate at 2.5% over 17 years since 2002.

Probably, inflation will impact more on those who are already spending at their lowest possible living costs so there is not much fat to trim during hard times.

How to beat inflation?

Spending a bit more to build up those extra fat during good years. LOL!





Sunday, 25 November 2018

Have We truly Understand How Inflation Affects Us And Our Retirement Planning?


Read? How Inflation Affects Your Cost of Living

When the Going Gets Expensive

It’s easy for most people to feel the effects of cost-of-living increases in their daily life. But rising prices hit the lower and middle classes especially hard. Higher food, gasoline and utility costs mean less money remains once these necessities are paid for, leaving little for savings or discretionary spending. To compensate for the rise in prices, consumers tend to buy less, switch to less-expensive substitutes or drive farther to find bargains.


Uncle8888 is still trying hard to understand how (1) past inflationary rate has actually affected his household living expenses as compared to theoretical extrapolation based on 2.5% yearly inflationary rate; and (2) future yearly 2.5% inflationary rate starting from 2019.















Saturday, 3 November 2018

How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation??? (2)


Read? How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation???


Beware of inflation, inflation and inflation! 

It is what financial planners and bloggers have been chanting on preparing for retirement!

Looking at Uncle8888's own past 16 years of data points since 2002; not sure why it didn't match up any closer to inflation theory. 

May be he needs more data points in the next one or two decades to finally see the financial impact/burden of yearly inflation!








Friday, 2 November 2018

Monday, 11 December 2017

Turning 55 - and enjoying financial freedom (7)


Read? Turning 55 - and enjoying financial freedom (6)


CONFIRMED!

We can withdraw our MONTHLY accumulated interests from Jan to Nov in CPF SA first; and then followed by CPF OA in the month of Dec!










Friday, 8 December 2017

Turning 55 - and enjoying financial freedom (6)


Thursday, 22 December 2016

Read? Turning 55 - and enjoying financial freedom (5)


One year has passed so fast!

To confirm below understanding in Dec 2016

For retirees thinking of using their CPF to build fixed income annuity; the best time to withdraw all these interests from SA, OA and MA is at first two weeks in every December after 5th December when interests for November has been credited. You will have 11 months of interests to withdraw. That is max and leaving interests for Dec to become principal in the following year. We will have perceptual fixed income annuities for life with our principal intact for beneficiaries. Good? Right?


Uncle8888 today went to CPF Branch to apply for withdrawal of interests in CPF SA and CPF OA from Jan to Nov 2017. The counter staff repeated several time before the actual application of withdrawal of CPF interests is ESTIMATED to be $23,XXX. LOL!

Uncle8888 told her he will just withdraw $23,000. Ha ha!

Uncle8888 told her next month he will come again to withdraw interests for Dec 2017. She replied that he can't withdraw any interests next month as in Jan 2018. All interests in CPF for 2017 will be credited and become principal in Jan 2018.



Monday, 13 March 2017

Some CPF Matters : Understanding It Better By Actually Going Through The ProcessTo Do It (2)


Read? Turning 55 - and enjoying financial freedom (5)


Today, Uncle8888 eng eng made another trip to Bishan CPF Branch.


Last year. Thursday, 22 December 2016

It was like that ....

CPF : You can withdraw interests from SA, OA and MA too.

CW: Pls help to check how much interests I can draw out without touching my SA and OA.

CPF: Wah! You have lots of interests to draw out. It is $XX,XXX. Do you want to draw out now?

CW: :-)


CW: No. Not now. I will withdraw next year on January.


So last year at Dec 2016 was like that ...

Interests from SA+OA+MA from Jan 16 to Nov 16 = $XX,XXX (5 figure number)


Today, 13 Mar 2017, it is like this ....

After passing Q ticket and IC to CPF lady and before she could ask ..

CW : I want to withdraw interests from all my CPF accounts.

Uncle8888 also passed to her this notepad.



CW: Pls help to write down the number. Principal and interests. Thank you!


When CPF lady has written down all the numbers and handed over Uncle8888's note pad.

CW: No MA interest?

CPF: This year MA limit is raised to $52,000. Your MA has not reach the limit so you can't withdraw MA interest.


At 13 Mar 2017

Ant will like this CPF Lady. Two decimal places precision!

Let see Grasshopper dares to laugh or not?

Interests from SA+OA from Jan 17 to Feb 17 $X,XXX.XX (4 figure number)

CPF : Do you want to withdraw your interests?

CW: No. Thank you. Have a nice day!

Uncle8888 went to sit down and verify the interests with mobile phone's calculator.

VERIFIED!


Only when it comes to the actual process of withdrawing monies from CPF; then the understanding is clear!

Is CPF Board doing lousy job of educating the Public with their different understanding by different CPF staff?



Tuesday, 27 December 2016

Senior Citizen : Minor Drop In Some Expenses


Transportation : Fixed at $60 per month

Weekly Purchase at NTUC Fairprice on Tuesday : 2% discount

Hair cut : $8 -> $7 so save $1 per cut every 1.5 months





Thursday, 22 December 2016

Turning 55 - and enjoying financial freedom (5)


Read? Turning 55 - and enjoying financial freedom (4)

Uncle8888 is so eng and went to Bishan CPF branch again and then next to Bishan NLB to read newspapers. 

This time he wanted to find out more for his CPF withdrawal strategies for 2017/2018 onward to build sustainable retirement income for life - His Three Taps solution model.

CPF OA forms bulk of his Tap 1!

This time, he is an expert visitor to CPF branch. He passed his Q ticket and IC together to counter staff to save one step in their SOP.

IMPORTANT to note if you are going to withdraw your CPF money for the FIRST time after your retirement.

betta man21 December 2016 at 08:45:00 GMT+8


Regarding withdrawal of CPF after 55, here is what CPF board wrote to me in black and white:

CPF Withdrawal

After setting aside the FRS in your RA, you can withdraw the remaining CPF balances in your OA,SA. When you withdraw your CPF savings, the Board processes all withdrawals of members who are 55 and above, using the deduction sequence as follows:

1) the interest earned in the Special Account (SA) then Ordinary Account (OA) from the beginning of the year up to the month before the withdrawal, followed by 

2) the contribution/refunds credited to the SA then OA in the same month of the withdrawal, and lastly, 


3) Monies in the SA then monies in the OA.


CPF : What can I do for you?

CW : I want to confirm my understanding that I can withdraw all interests from CPF SA and OA.


CPF : You can withdraw interests from SA, OA and MA too.

CW: Pls help to check how much interests I can draw out without touching my SA and OA.

CPF: Wah! You have lots of interests to draw out. It is $XX,XXX. Do you want to draw out now?

CW: :-)

CW: No. Not now. I will withdraw next year on January.

CPF: No. You can't withdraw your interests on January. Your interests credited on January will become your principal. You have no more interests to withdraw. You have to be careful as you will be withdrawing your principal in CPF SA first and then principal in CPF OA. CPF SA is 4% interests. Be careful! You better withdraw now in December. Your interests for November has been credited! Do you want to withdraw now?

CW: No. I will withdraw next year in December.

CPF : You no need the money now?

CW: No need!

Hmmm  ... may be CPF counter staff is thinking ... Rich CPF Uncle doesn't need his CPF money now. :-)


For retirees thinking of using their CPF to build fixed income annuity; the best time to withdraw all these interests from SA, OA and MA is at first two weeks in every December after 5th December when interests for November has been credited. You will have 11 months of interests to withdraw. That is max and leaving interests for Dec to become principal in the following year. We will have perceptual fixed income annuities for life with our principal intact for beneficiaries. Good? Right?
















Saturday, 14 March 2015

Future Inflationary Impact On Our Household Expenses???


How bad without housing inflation?



In Theory, Uncle8888 has projected his future household expenses @ 2.5% inflation rate, his chart will look like this:






















But, in Practice, his actual monthly household expenses for five persons since Oct 2001 is like this:























Blur!

Thinking out!


Without the housing inflation, we can adjust reasonably well to future inflationary impact by varying our consumption and expenditures.



What do you think?




Sunday, 1 March 2015

Worry about future inflation? Are we getting it right???



Uncle8888 is no different from anyone else. He is also worried about future inflation so he projected his future annual expenses @ 2.5 % inflation rate from Jan 2015 to Jan 2040 and look like this chart below:

























But, in reality, when he looked back at his family of five past years monthly expenses from Oct 2001 to Feb 201; from the chart it looked so differently.

Where is the past years inflationary impact shown in the chart? 

To smooth out those spikes in monthly expenses, he added in a 6-month Moving Averages; but still it did not show a clear indication of any up trend in monthly expenses due to inflationary impact.

This is not what he expected to see.



So what went wrong?

Has he grossly over-estimated the impact of inflation on his future living expenses till 2040?







Tuesday, 4 February 2014

CPF Minimum Sum - The Inflation Rate?



Read? Reaching 55


How much is the Minimum Sum?

Setting aside the Minimum Sum (MS) when you reach 55 ensures that you have some regular income from age 65 to live on in your retirement.

The MS was set at $80,000 in 2003 and will be raised gradually until it reaches $120,000 (in 2003 dollars) in 2015. These amounts will be adjusted yearly for inflation.


If you are unable to set aside your full MS in cash, your property, bought with your CPF savings, will be automatically pledged for up to half of your MS.
 










































CW8888's calculated inflation rate based on the above table for $115K in 2003 dollar value to the actual minimum sum required at 1 Jul 2013 of $148K is 2.6% annual compounded over 10 years.










Monday, 12 November 2012

Retiree inflation rate will be different. Likely to be lower than national average.

Read? Personal Inflation Rate and Market Inflation Rate - Revisit


Most retirees are not affected by inflationary pressure coming coming from housing, children education, children expenses, and etc.

So don't overly scared by your FI using typical 5% inflationary rate. It is too scary!

Uncle8888 used 3% inflation rate for his retirement planning. Reasonable or not???





Sunday, 6 March 2011

Hey, investors in Singapore. Inflation has shrunk your money!

The inflation rate in Singapore was last reported at 5.5 percent in January of 2011. From 1962 until 2010, the average inflation rate in Singapore was 2.73 percent reaching an historical high of 34.00 percent in March of 1974 and a record low of -3.10 percent in September of 1976. Inflation rate refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power. The most well known measures of Inflation are the CPI which measures consumer prices, and the GDP deflator, which measures inflation in the whole of the domestic economy.


If the inflation rate in Singapore continues to remain high e.g. 5.5%, for the rest of 2011, it is going to be a huge investing challenge for me to beat it as not all my money are into inflation-fighting capable type of returns.

Assuming inflation rate in 2011 is 5.5%

  • Money in CPF OA earning returns of 2.5% (negative returns after inflation is -3.0%)
  • Money in Bank FD earning returns of 0.5% (negative returns after inflation is -5.0%)
I have calculated that the Total Returns on my current portfolio value as on 6 Mar 2011 must be at least 14% in order for me to offset the negative returns in CPF OA and bank FD to match the inflation rate of 5.5% this year. This can be a challenging task in the side way trading stock market.

Thursday, 17 February 2011

Singapore sees 2011 inflation peaking near 6 pct

Createwealth88888: It is getting tougher for retail investors to get Returns on their investment better than 6%! It will hit less savvy retail investors harder e.g. investing in 2-yrs short term bonds of 2% yield.


SINGAPORE (AP) -- Singapore raised its 2011 inflation forecast Thursday as a booming economy and surging global food and energy costs boost prices.


Prices will likely rise between 3 and 4 percent this year, one percentage point higher than the previous estimate, the Trade and Industry Ministry said. The government said it expects inflation to peak as high as 6 percent in the first half before dropping in the second half.

A jump in food and fuel costs and robust economic growth have helped push prices higher throughout Asia, leading many of the region's central banks to raise interest rates in a bid to ease consumer demand and economic activity.

"The inflationary concerns in Asia may prompt further monetary tightening," the ministry said. "Domestically, the economy is also facing a tighter labor market."

Singapore's economy soared 14.5 percent last year, rebounding from a 0.8 contraction in 2009, as global demand for the city-state's exports recovered from a slump the previous year, the ministry said.

Gross domestic product expanded 12 percent in the fourth quarter from a year ago, compared with 10.5 percent in the third quarter, the ministry said.

Manufacturing soared 26 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous year while services gained 8.8 percent and construction dropped 2 percent, the ministry said. Visitor arrivals and tourism revenue jumped to record highs last year as Singapore's first two casino resorts opened.

The economy grew an annualized, seasonally adjusted 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter after contracting 16.7 percent in the third.

The ministry said in a preliminary report last month that GDP had jumped 12.5 percent last quarter from a year earlier and grown 6.9 percent from the previous quarter.

The ministry left this year's growth forecast of 4 to 6 percent unchanged.

"The steady pace of growth in the advanced economies is expected to lend support to Singapore's manufacturing activities," it said. "Strong visitor arrivals will continue to underpin growth in Singapore's tourism-related services sectors."

Thursday, 24 June 2010

Inflation in Singapore stood at 3.2%

Inflation in Singapore stood at 3.2% for the second month in a row - as the increase in prices of goods and services remained at a 14-month high.

--------------------------------------------------------------

This means that your compounded returns on all your saving and investment must be more than 3.2% for this year or else you will be having negative growth.
Personal Inflation Rate and Market Inflation Rate
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