As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

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Sunday, 25 April 2021

Luckily For Me In Those Days; There Was No Investment Bloggers, No 1M65 Movement, No Social Media Shouting on 1.5% Compounding Interests in SA Is The Magical Formula To CPF Wealth Building

In the recent years in social media and investment blogosphere in Singapore; so many loud voices  on how to be better CPF savers to become CPF Millionaires before 65!

Lack of  alternative voices from successful CPFIS members who have made it as investors or they are smiling in the background when they read those articles???

Read? Young CPF Members Should You Transfer CPF OA TO SA For additional 1.5% Compounding Interests Over Next Few Decades?

Read? The Dilemma Of Young Personal Financial Investment Influencers (Refresh)

Lucky, lucky, lucky and most lucky is Uncle8888 did CPF OA to SA transfer ONLY ONCE; otherwise his CPFIS net investment return will definitely be smaller!

The  $125K or $250K or $500K Question is ....

Is leaving 35% of CPF OA to earn 2.5% compounded interests as CPFIS War Chest worth the opportunity costs of waiting for Great Singapore Sales in SGX?




 










18 comments:

  1. Hi Uncle CW8888,
    Wow !! Congrats !! more than $324K profit from CPFIS ! not many people can achieve that , easily beat the 2.5% of OA interest rate ( and even 4% SA interest rate), beating most of the fund manager out there...
    Cheers !! :D

    ReplyDelete
  2. i think your case is very rare...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Uncle, I started holding SG bank stocks using OA since CB last year. Leaving some behind in OA in the event stocks go around CB again. Not sure if I ever have the guts to press the nuclear button when a major crisis comes gain

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Uncle8888,

    Every generation needs to learn for themselves! LOL!

    But it is very surprising that today with better CPFIS options, and lower-cost access to probably better products ... the call for simply more CPF saving is getting louder.

    It doesn't take a genius to figure out that consistent & regular investing of CPF monies into well diversified portfolio over 30 years will beat the 4% benchmark.

    However 3 things stand in the way:
    1) Too emotional i.e. will sell low. Or stop investing whenever market corrects or crashes.

    2) Go for fads, so portfolio is too concentrated in the "hottest" things, usually bought at high prices.

    3) Over focus on property & upgrading, so all or most of OA is used up for mortgage.

    If people have a macro view of their networth, it's still OK not to do CPFIS & instead do OA-to-SA transfer and top-ups to SA.

    Just treat CPF as the bond portion of your networth. And then have the confidence & fortitude to put more of your cash into stocks & other risk assets.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Alas for every one having success in CPFIS, how many have failed.

    Those who having success are blessed indeed.

    In de-accumulation phase, hope don't have to try CPFIS again.

    If CPF can be used as "Perpetual Annuity"-Hope Ah Kong doesn't have to change CPF's goal post drastically.

    Closed mine long ago but wify still intact.

    Shalom, Amen.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "Is leaving 35% of CPF OA to earn 2.5% compounded interests as CPFIS War Chest worth the opportunity costs of waiting for Great Singapore Sales in SGX?"

    For me is 101% lol.

    In fact tempted to withdraw the whole amount of OA after 55 (more than once) when Calamity Jane visited the Stock market. LOL.

    Still think the same but leave it alone because of "Perpetual Annuity".

    ReplyDelete
  7. Well, I will never know what its like to invest our CPF money in stocks because we (wife and I) have never done it. In our younger years, we almost used up our OA money for properties but now, all the money including accrued interests are back in our OA.

    So far, we are happy with the interests that our CPF accounts are giving us. Last year it was $86,900 combined for both of us. This year, expecting about $93,000.

    Think, to earn this kind of returns yearly in stocks consistently will be quite a challenge, not to mention the risk and the amount one would be exposing to the vagaries of the market.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Uncle8888, you are also lucky to be in Singapore, not Japan

    ReplyDelete
  9. Uncle 8888 is a got balls ant, no guts no glory!

    ReplyDelete
  10. CW,

    LOL! Real people, real story!

    You know what I really think about the 1M65 movement?

    I suspect big daddy had a change of heart after the "not fit for purpose" moment.

    Once the genie is out of the bottle, can't say ban CPFIS... The minority of us who benefitted from CPFIS would cry foul!!!

    And they still need to take care of our wealth management industry. With more family office setting up shop in Singapore, I don't think its just to park funds in CPF... (Like that create family office for what?)

    So how to "encourage" the majority of CPF members not to tap CPFIS without hurting their pride and ego? Others can; but they can't join the party?

    My conspiracy theory is someone got tapped on the shoulder, "You, you go and repackage and promote the strategy we use for widows and orphans SEXY!"

    Of course, the trick is to not let the new "converts" - who think CPF is the best new thing since sliced bread - come into contact with those who made money using CPF to invest/trade/speculate in properties and stocks ;)

    But definitely bring up and highlight those real people, real story cases whenever CPF members lost money using CPF to "gamble" in properties and stocks!

    Look! If its not sure win, its GAMBLING with your retirement!!!




    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi SMOL, to be fair, "followers" of the 1M65 movement have seen the benefits of shoring up their CPF to earn steady, consistent, decent and almost risk free interest from the CPF. With CPF savings, they can calculate and project the interests they will be "reaping" years down the road, not to mention seeing their principal grow into a little mountain by the time they retire.

    Already CPF savers who are "knowledgeable" of the various hacks to maximise the CPF benefits are looking at 2M60, that is $2M in their CPF accounts by 60 indivually! For a savvy couple that would be 4M60!! With 4M60, they can expect to receive $120,000 in interest every year! No need to hope that Mr Market will be kind to you year in, year out. Over 10 years, that would be $1.2M in interest from Ah Gong without exposing any money to market risk. Whats not to like?

    And the 1M65 movement has shown mathematically, it is possible to grow one's CPF savings to a whopping $10M by 65 (10M65), if you start off right and from birth ;-). While the 10M65 is probably just a mathematical possibility, there are 10 individuals who are 0.5M25. That is, they have $500,000 in their CPF at 25 years old.

    For my wife and I, we are fortunate to be able to test out three different approaches simultaneously:
    1. The CPF savings way
    2. Stocks investment way
    3. Property investment

    Of the three, CPF gives us the most steady and dependable income and growth. Most important of all, it gives us peace of mind when Mr Market goes into depression. But the returns is the lowest. Our interest income from CPF is increasing year on year and we can literally just depend on it for our retirement.

    Our stocks investment gave us better returns than the CPF over the long term. But the dividends we get from our stock investment is not consistent. It went steadily up to a high of $78.8K in 2019 and then retreated to just $64,000 last year (2020) and looks like going down further this year, even as the stocks prices recovered. So we learned quickly not to put dividends as one of the pillars to lean on in our retirement. We now look at dividend income as bonus income.

    Property investment gave us the best ROI for the capital investment primarily because of leverage and the low loan interest rate environment. We enjoy both capital appreciation and rental income. The rental income helped cover the loan installment so its really like another pair of hands (the tenant) is contributing to your income. Rental market was hit last year during the circuit breaker last year, but we still fortunate to have a tenant albeit at lower rental rate. But market seems to be picking up again this year.

    So to conclude, the CPF pillar should not be discounted. Build it up well and one can have a decent retirement lifestyle without watching Mr Market nervously in our golden years.

    By the way, I took up the challenge from my younger colleagues and have gone into the US market (via the Moomoo platform) and also started investing in cryptos. Embarked on both last month (March).

    So far, have put in $30,000 into US stocks and $8,000 into cryptos. Enjoying the ride at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. mysecretinvestment,

      LOL!

      In the trading community, its also "mathematically" possible to turn $1K into a $1 million within 12 months ;)

      You think how they sucker in bei kambings otherwise? (Yup, some lucky traders have done it in real life. Really!)


      Let me guess. All your "maximise" CPF examples in on condition you don't use CPF to buy your OWN property, don't use CPF to invest/trade stocks/properties right?

      But your experience is property investing has the best ROI... OK...

      Would you advise your own children to maximise their own CPF?

      Or do what you did? Try all three options and let "crash got sound" decide which ones worked the best for them?

      Different strokes for different folks?


      I've seen quite a few of these "look ma, no brains needed" CPF hacks examples from bloggers. A recent one showed how someone who earned $3K per month can be a CPF millionaire by age 65 just by hacking and "maximising" CPF.

      Of course the elephant in the room not addressed is how would someone - who earns $3K per month - pay for his OWN HDB flat if don't use CPF?

      Eat "soft rice" and ask wife to pay for their HDB flat? Shhh...

      Or just parasite on parents forever and ever and never move out?

      And I thought I'm the man-whore in the community!


      No, I'm not discounting CPF. I've benefitted from it. Although my hacks were more about getting CPF money out than in... Especially when track record (its more luck than skill actually) shows I can do better on my own ;)

      Save More people focus on the 1, 2, 10 millions at age 65.

      Earn More people focus on the age 35, 45, 55 ;)

      We can't call retire at age 65 "early" retirement today.

      We'll have to wait till the retirement goal posts have moved to age 75 before "selling" retiring at age 65 as "early" retirement :)






      Delete
    2. LOL Smol!

      Panchance the CPF savers leh!

      It IS still possible for a couple earning $6K to afford a 4-rm BTO (with all the additional grants & subsidies) and to raise 1 kid (with all the childcare subsidies). Using cash to service the mortgage & transferring OA-to-SA, while doing a bit of SA top ups with annual bonuses.

      Ok, that means govt needs to open up more foreigner floodgates, but whatever...

      It won't be a luxurious lifestyle, but likely what you & me experienced growing up in the 1970s. "Ok lah" standard.

      And that's provided that couple don't get any promotions or never upgrade in their careers. For 40 years.

      Hey even the 1M65 guy (or izit 4M65 now) focused on career and high salary first & foremost. No money no need to talk about CPF, property, trading, or investing lol.


      But you're right in one thing. Retirement will be in the 60s, not 30s or 40s. We're looking at FIRN movement ... financial independence, retire normally. 🤣

      And that's about the best that govt can hope for the population. 😉

      Delete
    3. Spur,

      No lah. Just having fun arguing with the STOP sign ;)


      1. One person earning $3K options more limited; two persons earning $3K each horizon expands. So get married!

      And yes, getting married is part of "Earn More" if you didn't already see it between the lines. Some lucky ones
      became financially independent the moment they said, "Yes."


      2. Austerity and saving money to build up capital to start own business, or to invest/trade for riches when we are
      young is one thing. Saving "sex" till we hit age 65 is another thing altogether.


      3. 1M65 assumes we'll be as lucky as Dr Mahatir. It will be a bummer if we go sell salted eggs at age 70 or earlier...
      Wait! I haven't spent all my money yet!!! What if tomorrow never comes?


      4. Big daddy tried to offer CPF members a better than "normal" retirement through CPFIS. That backfired into
      "not fit for purpose"...

      Through HDB flat upgrading and asset enhancement schemes, that helped increased the property values of the 80%
      who stayed in public housing (daddy loves those who loves daddy back; wink, wink). So far so good!

      Then to big daddy's horror, there are those who don't understand what 99 year leases meant... So had to drop the
      "zero" value bombshell...

      Those who followed the 1M65 with "OK lah" standard of living from age 25 today to age 65, see what they say
      in 40 years' time when they discover all $1 million can buy is a new 3 room HDB BTO flat in the future...

      I'm sure my dad who bought his HDB 3 room flat at $7K never expects 50 years later its now worth $300K!?

      Imagine if he had put that $7K never touched in CPF for 50 years... Ouch!


      OK, OK, I stop twisting the bayonet now ;)







      Delete
  12. Hi SMOL, its a big conundrum. Both for the not-so-high income earners and the government.

    For the not-so-high income earners, it is really dicey for them to take the risk and invest. Think CW had shared enough stories of people that "chopped hands" and declaring never to touch stocks again. And people who invested / upgraded their abode only to end up asset rich and cash poor. The 35% rule for the CPFIS was implemented after many lost their CPF savings no?

    So really, for these people, sometimes the slow and long CPF savings route is the way to go. Sacrifices in the earlier years to reap the rewards in retirement. And no, they may not achieve 1M65 but at least have some decent amount in their RA for a monthly stipend.

    You asked what advise would I give my children. This was what I told them.

    1. Study hard and get a good job. This is because they are their best asset. They will be their best income generator for a long while.

    2. Dont just save, but to start investing. This is mainly because the savings interest rates is very low.

    3. Do the CPF hacks. Beef up their MA as early as possible followed by the SA. Here, they are getting a bit of leg up from their biological daddy and some more from Big Daddy (thru interest and tax reliefs)

    4. Go for BTO when qualified.

    Among my closest friends, the above advise / steps are common. Some even used their children to invest in 3rd properties. My two children didnt agree on this, as they didnt want to lose their chance for a BTO flat. So there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. mysecretinvestment,

      I've thoroughly enjoyed our conversation!

      I've always said investing/trading is not for everyone and anyone. But I would never tell someone this is best or that is what I think is best for them.

      I not them; they not me.

      Somethings people have to figure it out for themselves.


      As for big daddy? I'm a small govt guy.

      I hope big daddy will learn to let children figure things out for themselves. Stop with the micro-managing...


      Those bloggers who have their own FIRE goals to retire at age 35 or 40, yet have no problem "strongly" recommending 1M65 to "anyone and everyone", probably don't realize how patronizing that is...


      I like your children's mature attitude!

      The strawberries ones will not say no. If daddy puts a house in my name, hey! Its mine then!

      Your children have stronger spine and pride.

      They probably thinking, "Look, if daddy can amass 3 properties, so can we! Don't take the THRILL of the hunt away from us!"

      And they are financially literate enough to know the HDB loophole:

      HDB owners can invest in private property; private property owners must sell theirs if they want to downgrade to a HDB flat.

      2 bites of the cherry is free money. Don't eat "white" don't eat!

      LOL!


      Delete
  13. cut our coats according to the cloth then it should be fine, Amen.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thank you for sharing such great information also i came across this link which provide access to wide range of investments such as Private Equity Market

    ReplyDelete

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