Curry Chicken

Wednesday, 7 December 2016

Read? Jog The Singapore's Park Connectors - Round 9


Time has passed very fast since 7 Dec 2016 when Uncle8888 stepped into the shopping centre to look for toilet to pang jio when he saw this stall was so crowded and got queue. 

Curry chicken! 

He will come back one day to try!

$4.50

You Can't Smoke Doctor At Another Clinic Anymore.

Read? The day when doctor brings bad news. It can happen to anyone. (2)

Since western medicine has run out of remedies for his persistent cough and nose mucus; he now switched to TCM. Bo pian! He can't be doing nothing. Right?

The true reason for switching to TCM

When his specialist at NCC has stopped prescribing cough mixture and nasal congestion medicine as his specialist doctor suspected that he might has developed into drug resistance against cough and nose congestion medicine and continuous treatment with the same medicine would not improve his condition. The doctor has suggested more nose flushing as alternative to medicine. 

Walau. Sianz leh!

Two days later; he went to Hougang polyclinic to try to smoke the young doctor to prescribe cough mixture and nasal spray. The doctor asked him why his specialist doctor didn't prescribe any medicine during his last visit two days ago?

Game over!

With centralized medical history of records; we can't smoke doctors anymore by clinic hopping!

Switch to TCM play!

LOL!

On top of TCM; he also on home remedy using hundreds years of TCM anti throat soothing and anti cough pill.

Doing nothing is not an option. SMOL likes to say "Hole in the Heart"

The day when doctor brings bad news. It can happen to anyone. (2)

Read? The day when doctor brings bad news. It can happen to anyone.

Since western medicine has run out of remedies for his persistent cough and nose mucus; he now switched to TCM. Bo pian! He can't be doing nothing. Right?

Sunday, 3 September 2017

Wah! Uncle8888 has been consulting TCM on weekly basis and TCM sinseh has been changing and mixing different herbal mixtures to find a cure or remedy for his excessive nose mucus and back drip triggering the cough!

TCM sinseh has yet to say no cure but keep trying!

How many combinations of herbs to find that magic formula mixtures? 10, 20, 30?

On Blog Leave 29 Mar to 4 Apr 2018

Read? Korea’s Cherry Blossoms 2018 Forecast: When & Where to Catch Them?


Uncle8888 has previously missed the one at Taiwan when they arrived it was already near the end of cherry blossom season.

Forecast : 26 March to 2 April.

We planned based on the above forecast and actual is ...

Period: April 1-10, 2018 

Venue: Area of Jinhae-gu, Changwon-si, Gyeongsangnam-do 
Description: This festival takes place in early April when the cherry blossoms are in full bloom. Jinhae Gunhangje Festival draws in more than 2 million tourists every year, and visitors are greeted by showers of cherry blossom petals as they pass through a tunnel of cherry trees. There are various events not to be missed, such as the Jinhae International Military Band & Honor Guard Festival and fireworks show.


We will fly to Seoul and then  ...

May be some of you may have seen these ads in MRT trains

Counting The Opportunity Cost Of Rotting Cash (3)

Read? Counting The Opportunity Cost Of Rotting Cash (2)


How to count?

Assuming Uncle8888 has stayed fully invested for 5% dividend yield since he is only interested in STI blue chips from 2012 to 2028 (10 years from now). 

How much realized gains must he made before 2028 over future market cycles to break even with accumulated dividends from 2012 to 2028?

It is about 74% realized investment gains over current War Chest.

He will have to achieve at least 74% to 180% ROC over current war chest by 2028!

Not really that bad on holding larger war chest to time the market.

Current War Chest is 56% more than the initial capital at the inception of investment portfolio when he seriously began his investing journey on Jan 2000 to get out of rat race and achieving financial independence at age of 55 on Sep 2011.

Example Of Endowment Effect : Sell Your $7M ToTo Ticket You Have Just Bought For One Bagger Gain???

You don't sell. You are stupid!

Chun bo???

That $7M ToTo ticket is potentially and extremely rare chance of XXXXX multi-baggers!

Sold your winning ticket for one bagger gain may land you into Woodbridge IMH if you can't get out from depression! LOL!

You Love Your Job But Your Company Doesn't!!! (3)

Read? You Love Your Job But Your Company Doesn't!!! (2)

As usual, Uncle8888 went for his "free" coffee black and before he could sit down. Someone came over to his seat and tapped his shoulder and called out his IC name!

One ex-colleague whom he has never met for more than 20 years.

He was retrenched at 43 during AFC 1998. After two years of looking for job, he finally landed Project Manager job with MOE; but he has to work long hours; and sometime has to burn weekends too.  

After  one and an half year; he gave up after thinking why he has to work so hard for others (bosses?) and decided to become full time property agent working hard for himself. 

Then came SARS; property market crashed big time!

He bought two properties at very good price for himself instead of finding clients to buy them. 

These two properties finally leaded him to financial independence. 

Both properties, one in Botanical Garden and other one in Tiong Bahru went enbloc!

His third property is currently in the process of enbloc!


Luck or unlucky to be retrenched?

Luck or unlucky to have sucky job?

Only hindsight then we know. 

How To Become A Better Investor With Ray Dalio’s 5 Investing Principles

Read? How To Become A Better Investor With Ray Dalio’s 5 Investing Principles

Two of the five investing principles listed, Uncle8888 can relate them well. LOL!


3. Constantly compare your outcomes to your goals

Do you diligently compare your investment outcomes to your investment goals? It is common to see investors boasting about their investment goals without having a real measure to evaluate how close they are. Without a clear measure in place, you are unable to receive feedback on whether your investment decisions are right or wrong. This deprives you of the opportunity to improve your investment decision. After all, if you don’t measure your outcome, you are just living in denial that every decision that you make is correct, isn’t it?

CW8888:  Read? Setting Investing Goals and measuring investment outcome and performance


5. Pareto principle: Knowing where the 20% lies

Regardless of how successful you are as an investor, it is unlikely that every stock that you picked will be a winner. Successful investors have recognised that 80% of their portfolio’s return is attributable to 20% of the portfolio. Rather than diversifying their effort to find multiple stocks with mediocre returns, investors like Ray Dalio focus a great deal of time researching for great businesses to become that 20% in their portfolio.

Read? Laws that are applicable to investing

What Is Your Nature Of Your Job?

Read? He's 23, and out to change the way we think of bus drivers


Uncle8888 roams across the island of Singapore and many times he may be roaming in those "ulu" bus route where there is only one bus service plying in those roads. Only one bus service!

This is the true test of a bus driver!

While waiting for bus at the bus stop; many time he will be browsing his mobile while watching out for his bus service; a number of times while he was paying attention to his mobile rather than looking out for in-coming bus; the approaching bus drivers may horn him that bus is arriving at the bus stop when he was not paying attention!


For those bus drivers who horn him clearly tell him that their jobs are to pick up passengers and NOT driving bus!

Counting The Opportunity Cost Of Rotting Cash (2)

Read? Counting The Opportunity Cost Of Rotting Cash

How to count?

One method is to look back at his past investment portfolio performance and achievement.

Best period from 2000 to 2007 (Bull) : 12% CAGR

Worst period from 2000 to 2009 (Bear) : 1.6% CAGR

Current period from 2000 to 2018 : 7% CAGR

Future period from 2000 to 2028 : 7% CAGR

To achieve and maintain 7% CAGR till 2028; Total Return (ROC) on his current War Chest has to be at least 180% over the next 10 years!

Bonds vs Stocks. Age is not the important factor, money is

Read? Bonds vs Stocks. Age is not the important factor, money is


As you can see in these examples, age is not the most important factor. The amount of money is the most important factor.

Where do you fit in? What are your special circumstances? How much money do you have to support the life you want to live? How much money do you want to leave behind?


Hmm ... in Uncle8888's plain and simple thinking on long-term investing is ...

In investing, your account size really matters - CW8888

Fruit Trees Neighbourhood

Not at Kranji Fruit farm for visitors!

Our Bosses Are Always Right??? (2)

Read? Our Bosses Are Always Right???

sibei chun. Right?

Trump Fires Rex Tillerson and Will Replace Him With C.I.A. Chief Pompeo

Risk and Leverage are subjective. Knowing Enough!!!

Read? Risk is subjective


Uncle8888 doesn't fight Mr Market with both arms. He is one arm swordsman. Why need leveraged instrument in margin trading for shorting or leverage up for higher yield on own investing capital e.g. assets pledging to open overdraft trading with brokers.

He doesn't have to polish his trading Craft for better Entries and Exits. He is Panda or Koala in the stock market; but his food is still not extinct yet!


Knowing enough!

Money is enough! Capital is enough! Risk is enough!

Parroting Buffet .... it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need.”

Uncle8888 is already practicing it years ahead of his 2018 annual letter. :-)

We take calculated risks and leverages to meet our objectives, wants or needs. 

It is like that! Right?

Risk and Leverage are subjective. Knowing enough!

Illusive Profits During Bullish Market But Permanent Losses In Bear Market

If you have NOT been through at least one full market cycle of Bull-Bear-Bull or Bear-Bull-Bear; you may not understand what Uncle8888 is saying ... Illusive profits during Bullish market but permanent losses in Bear market.

Over the years Uncle8888 have many coffee sessions with Readers/Starfishes who form the two groups of retail investors:

One group are newbies who have started out investing/trading for one or more years; but they didn't not achieve the investment return as expected. So they want to find out from veterans who have been in the market; and hopefully they can learn from veterans' experiences in the market; and see how to correct, revise or adapt their own investing method or strategies to achieve better performance.

The other group have been performing well during bullish market; but they couldn't clearly identify the phases of pull back, correction and stayed over-invested till market crash. Finally panic selling and locked in permanent losses to save whatever capital left on the table. They want to know how to survive market cycles and build sustainable retirement income or wealth for retirement.

Bak Tuk Teh

$4 Bak Tuk Teh (Frugal meal but not Song Fa or Ng Ah Sio soup standard)

$1 Nonya chap chye

5% co-payment for new Integrated Shield Plan riders to help address over-consumption of medical services

Updated with two charts contribution from Raymond Ng. Thank you!

Medishield Life Cost vs GE Platinum P+ Premium

Co-payment is the right move!

Personal reason here!

Frugal even when one is sick and that is frugal at its best. No?

Read? Medical Bill Shock???

Top Up CPF SA From CPF OA? Depending On Who You Ask! (10) - Refresh

Read? Top Up CPF SA From CPF OA? Depending On Who You Ask! (10)

Many younger retail investors will have this dilemma!

Among the practicing investment bloggers in Singapore; it is also split!

Listen to who when we are lost ourselves!

Counting The Opportunity Cost Of Rotting Cash

Read? Investment Portfolio Draw-down Across Market Cycles


Cash is rotting due to inflation so the opportunity cost of holding is to beat inflation rate. Uncle8888 is assuming 2.5% yearly inflation rate.

His opportunity cost for rotting cash in his war chest is .... 


the number doesn't look too scary to beat it. To generate at least 68% ROC on war chest by 2030 i.e. another 12 years for the next Big Bear!

Your Parents Or Grand Parents Prized Assets

Read? Changes proposed to help build retirement savings

CW8888

Look like Uncle8888's observation and what he knew from conversation with many of his peers in the last few years is getting momentum from the Government's concern on current parents' or grandparents' retirement adequacy. The next decade or 1.5 decades we may see flood of housing downgrade and rental vacancy. 

Conviction? Hoot Tua Tua Or Let Them Grow Slowly And Steady To Tua Tua???

Read? No One Can Teach You Conviction. You need to Acquire It Yourself

Ask any retail investors who have average down their stocks until recovery to break even is near impossible. Are they ever short of conviction?

Uncle8888's money management and risk management limited exposure to any single stock to not more than 10% of his total capital since inception in Jan 2000.

From the chart below; where is his conviction over the last 18 years?

Hoot tua tua or Let it be and then tua tua?

Investment Portfolio Draw-down Across Market Cycles

Let see how Uncle8888's investment portfolio performs in the next Bull-Bear-Bull cycle with his rotting cash strategy to time the market?

How Scary Is Inflation??? (2)

Read? How Scary Is Inflation???


Ask your parents, grand-parents or great grand-parents how did they survive years and years of inflation?

Did they break down due to inflation?

Ask your parents or grand-parents who were serious retail investors pre AFC days and did they break down due to their investment losses and chopped fingers and never never touch the stock market ever again?

No Hindsight Genius!!!

It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit - Jessie Livermore