Rising Bull market may give us an illusion of wealth in the stock market and made us feel richer. Falling Bear market may make us feel uneasy or sick or even depression depending on the strength of our financial security during those time! What is real and what is illusion?
Read? 2 Reasons I Find It Difficult to Invest in Keppel Corporation Limited The Foolish bottom line I think Keppel Corporation is still a worthwhile company to study further, mainly because of the diversity of its income sources. But personally, I find its declining financial performance and volatile dividend payout hard to stomach. Lumpy dividends payout hard to stomach??? It is NOT until you have personally experienced and taken these Panadols into your stomach. How bad is the stomach upset??? How bad can it be? The Past is NOT Present. The Present is NOT the Future. Tough to be buy and hold for Panadols!
Berkshire's cash pile is worth nearly 60% of its $208 billion portfolio of public companies. In the past 32 years, the group held more cash as a percentage of its portfolio only in the years leading up to the financial crisis of 2008, according to Bloomberg. Hmm ... So you are also holding large war chest like Warren Buffet to be learning to invest like Warren Buffet?
temperament 22 September 2019 at 19:54:00 GMT+8 Yes, which of the companies will survive? Real solid businesses which people will need no matter what will happens with the economy or market? ReplyDelete Read? Fundamental Analysis : As Outsiders How Far Into The Future Can We Analyze Company Business? Coming to two years soon!. What he observed how bigger F&B businesses can have better resources or/and capability to strive for survival across cycle of boom and doom and tough F&B competition and changing consumer taste buds. From 16 down to 12 and then slowly recovered at 1 outlet at a time to current 15 outlets. 1. Four outlets had closed shop and vacated. 2. Two outlets have re-branded themselves; but after a few months also closed shop and vacated. 3. One has re-branded and still surviving 4. Five new brand outlets started. Hmm ... bigger is better? Invest in small cap, mid cap or large cap or blue chips? You decide!
Rainbowcoin 21 September 2019 at 22:51:00 GMT+8 Hi Uncle8888 If you can relive the 07-08 period, what would you have done differently to prevent a plunge from 157% to 15%? How did you derive the projected plunge value (41%)? Seeking some enlightenments. :) Uncle8888 started his journey in Jan 2000 at age 44 to pursue Financial Independence at Sep 2011 @ 55 years old through short-term trading and long-term investing. He then spent days and nights following news and forums. He read books on investing and trading books from NLB. Read? Books from NLB Who are we in the Market? Young ones may want to check out their older relatives, colleagues, friends or whoever who are veterans in the market. Uncle8888 with his hindsight wisdom and 20 years of data points will say it out : Mr Market will make us to think who we are in the Market and make us looking smart and act smart. A multi-years of general rising Bull market will float many boats to multi-years high; and same as multi-years rising Bull sectors too. Currently; in this low or near negative interest rate environment; Mr Market is making which sector as King?
A good place to witness such exhibiting behaviour of Mr Market making retails proud, smart and mastery is to go to investing (trading) forums. Below STI chart Only look closely at Mr Market from 2003 to 2007
Finally, he reached FI two years later in 2013 instead of 2011 as targeted. Who has helped him to reach FI in 2013? Mr Market!
Going down the Mountain is never same as climbing up Mountain so his bench-marking is different. Going down Mountain, Uncle8888 is focusing on sustainable retirement income for life at net worth level i.e interests, dividends and divestment/draw-down of assets.
Read? How to know you have achieved Mastery? How do I know? Uncle8888 has been tracking and measuring so he has 20 years worth of data points to review. He also has his war chest deployment plan ready for the next bear market. He then stress tested his investment portfolio for the next crisis! Compare the last crisis actual with the stress test result for the next crisis and se what is difference? Mastery is the difference! Hee hee!
Read? TEDxSingapore: The meaning of life Singaporeans in search for happiness beyond the material Sep 20, 2019 5:50 AM by HELMI YUSOFhelmibt@gmail.com@HelmiBT AT THE END of one group session, participants of the recent TEDxSingapore Salon event each wrote on a piece of paper what made them happy. These included things such as “Riding a bicycle”, “Hugging a dog/cat/any large enough pet”, “Going to Bhutan” and “Calling my Dad”. They were then asked to crush the paper into a ball and throw it in any direction in the room. Subsequently each of them had to pick up one of these balls, read what was written, and carry out the activity when they could. Melanie Yong took out her phone immediately and called her Dad. “I got an easy one,” she said with a grin. Before the groups dispersed, they pondered the 10 large boards on which all of them had earlier scribbled the things that deeply mattered to them. These included ‘Unconditional Love’, ‘Compassion’, ‘Dreams’, ‘Travel’, ‘Comfort’, ‘Courage To Evolve’ and ‘Simplicity’. Perhaps naively, no one wrote ‘Money’ – even though this may be needed for ‘Travel’, ‘Comfort’ and ‘Dreams’. But the thrust of the TEDxSingapore’s event, which marked its 10th anniversary this year, was to think of life beyond money and the material. As Dave Lim, founder of TEDxSingapore, put it: “Singapore needs to think about how we can fulfill the ‘happiness’ part of our pledge that goes: ‘So as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation’. Many of us recited the pledge in school, but it’s become rote. We talk about ‘prosperity and progress’ all the time. But we don’t talk about what makes us happy. As a result, we commit all sorts of mistakes and misactions when we search for happiness and fulfilment.” On the Marina One stage one Saturday afternoon, four expert speakers shared words of wisdom on how to lead a good, meaningful life. Angela Ng, a corporate consultant and “human experience designer”, explained: “There is no one form or standard of happiness. We define what happiness is to us, and what that looks like changes at different phases of our lives.” Founder of positive psychology firm Happiness Scientists, Yeo Sha-En, gave insights into the science of happiness. Psychiatrist Christopher Cheok examined addictions as “thieves of happiness”. HR expert Deborah Peterson explored how to make work work better for us. A common thread in their observations is that many Singaporeans can lead happy, meaningful lives if we can define what we really want, temper our expectations of what we can and cannot achieve, and accept the full range of experiences that life has to offer – including failure, loss, grief, disappointment and heartache.
Happiness is not a one-size-fits-all descriptor. Meaning cannot be manufactured for you by someone else. Only you can determine what a good, meaningful life looks like for yourself. DESIGN YOUR LIFE Dr Cheok, president of Singapore Psychiatric Association, gave a grave assessment of Singaporeans’ love of the material: “Consumerism has crept into Singaporean lives, making us spend our money as we try to buy more and more. But these things don’t contribute to our well-being as much as we think they do. Society tells us that getting the 5 Cs (car, condominium, credit card, cash and club membership) would make us happy. But I think that is a myth... “While I’d be the first to say that it’s everyone’s responsibility to be economically stable... I think you don’t need (the 5 Cs) to make you happy. We all come from such diverse backgrounds and have such diverse personalities. And the things that can make us happy are just as diverse.” Ms Ng, a longtime corporate consultant, has been using the design thinking approach to help people discover what gives them joy and fulfillment. Design thinking is a business methodology of observing and understanding the target user, conceptualising new products and services for the user, and then testing them to see if they have lasting appeal. “But after studying it for 20 years, I realise the process can also be used for our lives,” she said. “We start by examining ourselves and developing insights into our personality. We then draw up the different options that we can pursue to improve our well-being. Subsequently we draw out a tentative life map. We experiment with different parts of it to see how well they work. We tweak some parts until we get the map right. And even years after that, we keep tweaking it because our personalities and needs will change.” A happy and meaningful life doesn’t fall into your lap. It needs to be purposefully constructed and repeatedly challenged. “But the difficulty of designing your happiness,” warned Ms Ng, “ is that we don’t always read our emotions accurately. We have blindspots that stop us from discovering greater meaning and satisfaction. For instance, we might fear doing certain things, even if that fear is just courage waiting to surface when we face up to it.” How then to see past one’s blindspots? Does one need a therapist or counsellor? Ms Yeo said: “Not necessarily. You can turn to someone who knows you well, such as a friend or a family member, for their honest opinions. Alternatively there are psychological tests out there that you could do to find out your strengths and weaknesses.” The experts agreed that everyone needs to find their own path towards hope, meaning and purpose. But the journey will likely be long and winding. MAKING WORK WORK On the topic of work, Ms Peterson drew chortles from the audience when she told them to just ignore their bosses when they’re being unreasonable. She said: “Don't give away your ability to be happy to somebody else, in the mistaken hope that he or she – such as your boss – can make you happy… If your boss tells you that you are responsible for his happiness, you should tell them that you were not born to make him happy.” Ms Peterson, who’s held senior HR positions in several companies such as Hilton Worldwide and the Carlson Rezidor Hotel Group (now rebranded as the Radisson Hotel Group), said many workers face mounting pressures at work such as increased workload, challenging targets, the lack of staff and the fear of being made redundant. As businesses go global, many executives straddle time-zones, making their work hours even longer. Ms Peterson said the antidote to these challenges is learning to compartmentalise one’s life so that one task doesn’t bleed into another – for instance, having a strict practice of not checking email on Sundays or not picking up calls during a family meal. She also said it’s crucial to always question what value and meaning you’re bringing to your work – “there are too many executives who burn out trying to deliver goals which turn out to have very little value and meaning to the organisation…. So if you sense you’re burning out – as I once did – you have to have a conversation with your management about sustainability. You have to negotiate for a better work-life balance. You have to help the organisation remember that productivity has a framework. “We spend a significant chunk of our lives at work, so why shouldn't we be invested in wanting that chunk to be happy and meaningful? Help the organisation help you make that a reality.” She admitted, though, not everyone is lucky enough to find a profession or a workplace they enjoy. In the worst-case scenarios, she suggested seeking options that can make you “less unhappy”. She said: “Take a leaf from Meik Wiking, CEO of The Happiness Research Institute in Denmark, which is frequently named the world’s happiest country. When he was interviewed, he said: It’s probably more accurate and more helpful to think of Denmark as the least unhappy country... Now to me, that’s not semantics. One should explore the ways that can make one less unhappy – especially where work is concerned.” THE ELUSIVE ‘MEANING’ In a 2017 feature published in National Geographic titled These Are The World’s Happiest Places, Singapore, Denmark and Costa Rica were singled out as three very happy countries. But each scored quite differently on the five categories of well-being polled by Gallup in 2015/2016. Costa Rica, for instance, scored low in the “financial” category, with a GDP per capita of US$11,895 (compared to Singapore’s US$65,627), and only 25 percent of its population consider themselves financially secure. However, it scored high in the other four categories, namely “social”, “community”, “purpose” and “physical”, with almost half of the population reportedly thriving in these categories. The poll suggests that many Costa Ricans have strong ties with family and friends, enjoy their work and hobbies, and are generally active and healthy – despite being less wealthy than Singaporeans and the Danes. Singapore, on the other hand, had the opposite results. It did very well in the “financial” category with 56 percent of its population considering themselves financially secure. However, it scored low in all the other categories, namely “social” (24 percent), “community” (27 percent), “physical” (21 percent) and “purpose” (17 percent). The poll suggests that Singapore’s pursuit of wealth comes at some cost to other well-being factors – in particular “purpose”, where only 17 percent of Singaporeans think they have a clear purpose in life. According to Gallup, people who score high in the “purpose” category “like what they do each day and are motivated to achieve their goals… whether they work for a company, are self-employed, care for family members, pursue education, work on a farm, or engage in charity work. They also tend to be highly engaged in their work, are emotionally invested in what they do and focus on creating value through their efforts.” According to Dr Cheok, many Singaporeans today pursue what society expects of them, from the right schools and the right jobs, to the latest fashion and food fads. “But if we don’t spend time examining ourselves to discover who we really are and what makes us tick, we might not feel a sense of well-being because what we’ve achieved is not in harmony with the person that we are. Happiness comes when what we’re doing is in sync with our intrinsic personality, we feel connected to the world around you, and we don’t feel false, forced or non-authentic.” The clearly-defined path to success that all Singaporeans know like the back of their hands may not be right for everyone – but many walk on it anyway even if they don’t like it. This could explain why over 80 percent of Singaporeans don’t have a clear purpose in life. But if you fall into this majority, what can you do? Ms Yeo of Happiness Scientists said: “It’s not uncommon for people not to know their purpose. Some people are fortunate enough to be in touch with their emotions, needs and wants; others not so much… For the latter group, I suggest you take your first steps towards introspection. “You begin by asking yourself after each experience: ‘What did I get out of it? How do I feel about it? What strengths or weaknesses did the experience bring out in me?’ This will gradually help you understand yourself more intimately. “Eventually, you will have a better sense of who you are and what you want. And the awareness of what you’re good or bad at takes you closer to what you want to pursue in life (because people tend to pursue activities they’re naturally good at). And when you can use that ability in service of something bigger than yourself, that’s when you find your purpose in life.”
Towards the close of the TedxSingapore event, Mr Lim projected a word cloud created by the participants who listed all the things that bring meaning to their lives. The words appearing in the biggest fonts (suggesting these were most commonly cited by participants) were ‘love’, ‘family’, ‘people’ and ‘connecting’. Meanwhile ‘work’, ‘success’ and ‘achieving’ were featured in smaller fonts. At least for the participants of TedxSingapore, they knew what mattered most.
Read? Walk and Walk (2) Don't track. Don't measure. How do we know the real happening? All these years; Uncle8888 has been thinking that fishing is a physically "lazy" activity. But; he was wrong for so many years! Every step walking to fishing rods and back will finally add up at the end of a fishing day! This fishing trip from Sun to Wed steps count statistics taught him one important lesson. To know the real happening; we have to track and measure.
Read? Unlocking SRS At 62 And Avoiding Being Taxed (2) Last Friday was Uncle8888's second year of unlocking cash flow from his SRS account. Guessing only! May be this time was a repeated transaction and transfer of cash from SRS to saving account was fast!
Uncle8888 has went through a few market cycles in the last 20 years. He understands the truth behind "Warren Buffett's be greedy when others are fearful" The truth is ... Can you afford to be greedy when others are fearful? Past three market crashes : 1. Sep 11 2001 WTC Attack, 2. SARS 2003 3. GFC 2008/2009 For the first two market crashes; Uncle8888 didn't feel that fearful. But, for GFC 2008/2009, it was bloody different! It was when Greedy --> Fearful --> Panic Read? Market Cycles of What???
Why he felt so fearful and then panic by end Nov 2008? When he realized he couldn't afford to be greedy; so he became so fearful! Simple mind flip! LOL! 1. Fear of losing his job! 2. In 2008, when every other day, he read bad news and prediction of Great Depression 2.0 coming. It could last more 10 years! His thought of Ah Boi and Ah Ger going to university in August 2009 getting him more worries. Where is the money?
But, this time is different! For the next market crash; he believe he can afford to be greedy. 1. No more fear of losing his job as he is retrenchment proof now! 2. No more financial burden of supporting his children university education. 3. His war chest is rotting so badly!
Read? Workfare Payouts (2) The Government will enhance the Workfare Income Supplement (WIS) Scheme to uplift the incomes and CPF savings of lower-wage workers, as well as to encourage them to work regularly
Hmm ... May be WIS should be renamed as Medisavefare since since 90% of the payout goes to Medisave. LOL!
Out of curiosity; Uncle8888 went to search that email which is offending FAs and then .... LOL!
Our proprietary growth investing strategy to spot 100% - 300% profit per growth stock How to avoid dangerous stocks like Hyflux Walau! Snake oil marketing at the best! Whoever can spot potential dangerous stocks like Hyflux should be shorting big time and become millionaire! Read? The Hyflux story so far Whoever can foresee Hyflux woes is God of Investors!
Alamak! To every retail investor; theory and practical and reality on ground is so much difference.
How scary is the real cost and risk of cash to catch the next big Bear? Once we track our investment portfolio and its cash flow generation; we will roughly know its real cost and risk of cash. Personal Actual
Read? So hard to sell! Read? How to Hold a multi-bagger? Buy, Right and Hold and then becomes so hard to sell! Uncle8888 also find so hard to sell his Three Little Pigs to the Wolf! Why like that? Lacking in ... TA FA FATA Freehold. So can bo chap? Endowment bias is far too strong? "Passive" income at MINIMUM yield on cost @ 6.3% p.a. for life over 42 years till 85 age old. It is better than his RA Minimum Sum yearly payout with variable higher payout. Hmm .. RA Minimum Sum: A lifetime of CPF contributions till 55 after 34 years as employee Three Little Pigs : 20 years as retail investor taking emotional roller coaster ride up and down through market cycles and periodically hearing bad news and then time to sell and finding so hard to sell! Sigh! Are we smart trader or dumb investor?
Can we really become mutually inclusive as smart trader and smart investor at the same time? Can we still find potential multi-baggers with implementation of trailing stops to protect profits over market and economic cycles?
Read? SGX (7) : Closing @ new 52 WH at $8.35 Hmm .. are BBs doing again like the last peak at $8.50 and then dump all the way down to retails who may be buying more on pull back and correction? Buyers/Sellers = 3,164,700/1,628,500 = 194%
Market timing is applicable to attending investment training course too! If you happened to attend any investment training course in 2006; you have won shiok shiok till end 2007. Walau! My trainers bagus man! You see how much money I have made! Highly recommended! Here is testimonial! Someone told Uncle8888 during his kopi session that he made $200K profits in 2007; but lost back that $200K profits and currently sitting on total net $300K losses in his investment portfolio. What if you happened to attend any investment training course in mid 2008. You hosey liao! You can proudly produce your testimonial to prove that the course is really bagus! Got multi-baggers some more! Who still say market timing is not important?
2. Companies Risk Select top tier blue chips that are likely to be rescued by Temasek. Limit your exposure to any stock to less than 10%, and for bigger account size less than 5% Limit your exposure to any sector to less than 20%, and for bigger account size less than 10% 3. Currency Risk Invest in Singapore only 4. Lack of Knowledge and Skills Read? Investing Knowledge and Skills 5. No Time for Research and Monitoring You mean other people got more than 24 hours? Time is the fairest commodity of all and everybody has the same amount of time, no more or no less. 24 hours a day! Wake up if you don't have time and stop dreaming! 6. Liquidity Risk This risk is associated with the ability to sell out our stocks easily without depressing the price level further and causing potential buyers to retreat to sideline in anticipation of more fire sales coming.
It is true that when we buy stocks which have low liquidity; we can have all the time in the world to buy slowly. I am not sure if the opposite is true when you need to sell? Do you really have the time in the world to sell slowly? Probably, you may have urgent need to raise money; otherwise, why would you be selling? This Great Bear of 2008 taught me there is another risk to think about: 7. Dilution Risk Even if you only invest in blue chips that are strategically important to Singapore and the government will never allow them to fail. So there is very little risk of complete failure but you are still expose to the dilution risk i.e. your interests in your holding get diluted by these companies injecting more capitals to strengthen up their balance sheets by raising more capitals through private placement or right issues. Private Placement to Institutions You either get out or get diluted. If you have decided to hold on; then it may take a long while for your current holding to get even. Right Issues Same here. You can choose to get out or exercise your option to prevent your current holding been diluted by subscribing to all your entitled right issues to hold it at higher investment cost.
If you don't, then your interests will take a long while to get even. Do you have war chest for right issues and especially true for those heavily into S-REITs when their business model for raising right isses is BAU?
Last updated : 14 Sep 2019
I am 63 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and finally retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee on 1 Oct 2016.
Single household income since 1995 with three children.
Currently, two sons and one daughter are working.
I have been doing 20 years of long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that so-called Panda or Koala in the investment world.
I am currently executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2041 @ 85 yrs old.
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