As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Wednesday, 28 October 2020

DBS Bank Is Planning to Launch a Digital Asset Exchange

Read? DBS Bank Is Planning to Launch a Digital Asset Exchange

Like that; can say Uncle8888 also has one toe in this Bitcoin craze through his long-term 2-bagger DBS holding since 2003???



Tuesday, 27 October 2020

STI No Panic Selling

Dow closes 650 points lower, as concerns mount over rise in coronavirus infections

 STI steady! 

Show Uncle DOW your Ball!





Sunday, 25 October 2020

When Your Bank RM Called??? (3)

Read?  When Your Bank RM Called??? (2)

Spur 24 October 2020 at 21:46:00 GMT+8

Hi Uncle8888,

The interesting part is the 2 statements of the "Disclaimer" in very fine print. ;)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Read? Singapore Three Month Interbank Rate1995-2020 Data



After 55, money in CPF is Uncle8888 Best Saving Bank while money in POSB is his Worst Saving Bank.

To continue leaving extra cash in his Worst Saving Bank or having 27% more fixed income on top of his CPF RSS since the gross return is same as 2.5% CPF OA CAGR?

In the worst case; just redeem the $144K loan and paid penalty. The penalty may or may not end up with cut losses after X or XX yrs.

Ant really thinking too much on Maths! LOL!





Saturday, 24 October 2020

When Your Bank RM Called??? (2)

 Saturday, 21 March 2015

Read? When Your Bank RM Called???

Wah! The last call from bank RM was 5 years ago! 

This time, bank RM introduced him Premium Financing to increase his retirement income by leveraging on the next decade of possible lower interests rate environment of 1% to 3%.

Gross XIRR over 20 years Annuity Plan is 2.5% CAGR without leverage!

2.5% CAGR is comparable to CPF OA! Decent return for fixed income with death benefits. Right?

Time to take advantage of low interest rate environment and leverage up?




Thursday, 22 October 2020

Wilmar : Bought @ $4.16 for Round 12

Read? Wilmar

Read? Wilmar: 10 : 1

Hand sibei itchy!













Wednesday, 21 October 2020

More CPF top-ups, people below 35 saving for retirement: CPF

 Read? More CPF top-ups, people below 35 saving for retirement: CPF

CW8888 : SA/RA  4% compound interest is too juicy to ignore. 

SINGAPORE: More people made top-ups to their Central Provident Fund (CPF) accounts despite the challenging economic conditions this year, including a growing number of first-timers and young adults.

The CPF Board said in a news release on Wednesday (Oct 21) that more than 198,000 top-ups were made under the Retirement Sum Topping-Up scheme between January and September, an increase of 34 per cent from the same period last year.

The top-ups amounted to S$1.81 billion, up 23 per cent from the same period last year.

There were close to 148,000 top-ups totalling S$1.47 billion during the January to September period in 2019.



SGX : Bought Back @ $9.08 for Round 7-1

 Read? SGX : Partial Sold @ $9.28 for Round 5-2

Round 5 - 2 : ROC +9.1%,  112 days, B $8.48 S $9.28

Round 5 - 1 : ROC +5.9%,  102 days, B $8.48 S $9.01

Round 4 : ROC +8.5%, 6 days, B $8.01 S $8.74

Round 3 : ROC +8.8%, 12 days, B $8.21 S $8.99

Round 2 : ROC +13.6%, 3 days, B $7.46 S $8.52

Round 1 : ROC +12.3%, 61 days, B $6.87 S $7.76






Sunday, 18 October 2020

I am on Retirement Sum Scheme (RSS) (4)

Read?  I am on Retirement Sum Scheme (RSS) (3)

Does CPF RSS or CPF Life provide decent return on your forced savings for retirement?













Decent return on savings over 33 yrs?

Do we still hate or dislike CPF?






Stocks Only Go Up.

Read? Stocks Only Go Up. Wait!?

True la!

Stocks only go up!

You don't believe. You can go and check on those investment bloggers in Singapore Investment Blogosphere who have posted their Sep 20 month ending stocks investment performance charts.

What do you see from their charts?

Mostly, Over long term; stocks only go up!

True right?

So you know how to do to achieve that?






Saturday, 17 October 2020

Depending on Investment Portfolio As Retirement Income - Next Year May Be Hit Harder! (2)

Read?  Depending on Investment Portfolio As Retirement Income - Next Year May Be Hit Harder!




Quick! Which is Easier? Properties or Stocks? The Fisherman and The Investment Banker???

Read? Quick! Which is Easier? Properties or Stocks?

Read? The Fisherman and The Investment Banker

Quick! Which is Easier? Properties or Stocks?

Is the Moral of the Story same as the Fisherman and Investment Banker?

Fisherman started off fishing at jetty and continues catching small fishes (yearly dividend income not so impressive) as you can't catch big fishes at the Jetty!

While the Investment Banker making so much money and has huge capital to invest in stocks. His yearly dividend income is impressive 6 digits! $XXX,XXX

The Fisherman fishing at Jetty for small fishes while the Investment Banker fishing at his yacht for big fishes. Which is easier for you?

Properties, high income with high saving rate or stocks (TA, FA, or FATA)?





Thursday, 15 October 2020

Wilmar

 


SGX

 


Tuesday, 13 October 2020

DBS - Time in the market or Timing the Market?

 Real retail investors on DBS. 

Time in the market or timing the market?  Either  one also NOT easy to do! 

Investor A

Ex-colleague:  Heard you very good at investing?

blah blah

Ex-colleague: How is the market?

CW: Banks and properties are cheonging! DBS at record high!

Ex-colleague: Sianz! I sold my DBS @ $14+

blah blah

CW: I am still holding some DBS bought at $7+ since SARS time.

blah blah

Ex-colleague : When are you going to teach me how to make money?


Investor B

Last night; one ex-vendor and ex-colleague jio Uncle8888 for dinner at the famous Clementi Satay. Of course; when they have dinner with Uncle8888; one of the thing to talk about will be on investing.

This ex-vendor is amazed at Uncle8888's decades of holding multi-bagger stocks and seriously he wanted to learn from him on how to hold multi-bagger stocks over the next market cycles.

His biggest regret of unable to hold winning stocks and this he must learn from Uncle8888 for the next bear market.

Uncle8888 bought DBS at $7.53; but he bought DBS at lower than Uncle8888 at $6+.

The biggest regret is that he sold DBS far too early; otherwise he will be the one telling better story of high yield of 9% multi-bagger blue chip - DBS.



Investor C













Monday, 12 October 2020

DBS - Will more Bulls come and make it Happen???

 


How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation??? (3)

Saturday, 3 November 2018

Read?  How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation??? (2)

Updated with two years of data points i.e. total 19 years of  data points on household expenses 

How to overcome yearly inflation?

NOT though investing!

It is through 

Get married and have more children!

In your retirement phase; you may not feel the impact of yearly inflation when your children started working and you no longer need to support them financially. LOL!

Any proof?

Retirement sum for married couple with children is NOT same as single person!

See for yourself! LOL!









110km, five days, two reporters: CNA sets out to explore Singapore on foot

Read? 110km, five days, two reporters: CNA sets out to explore Singapore on foot


Ha Ha! Nice!

Hope that more local walkers joining to walk one round the coast of Singapore!

Read? New central green corridor connecting East Coast Park and Changi Beach Park to be created: Heng Swee Keat

SINGAPORE: "It's really no big deal," insisted my editor as we made what we thought was an entirely reasonable request to cycle rather than walk 110km on a journey to explore Singapore.

His justification for making us walk? Cycling the route wouldn't give me and my fellow journalist Gaya Chandramohan the time to savour the sights of Singapore - which is the point of this somewhat unusual assignment.

(CW8888: Walking allows us to pause anytime along the way to have real close look at any things that attract our attention.)

Our discussions initially centred around doing a complete loop of Singapore, sticking as close to the coast as possible. However, logistically this would prove to be a bit of a challenge, and so we decided to scale down sections of the route. (CW8888 : No worry lah! There are bus services even along ulu areas in Singapore! You can take whichever bus to next makan place for lunch or dinner! DON'T forget your TransitLink card!)

We've included some of Singapore's best sights along the coast - so West Coast and East Coast parks, Coney Island and Sungei Buloh nature reserve should feature prominently along our journey.

At the same time, we'll also be making it a point to try our best to savour the journey, so there should be stops at some of Singapore's most beloved foodie haunts - East Coast Lagoon food village, Hong Lim market and food centre among other places.

Our plan is put up in hotels as close as possible to the route, before continuing on our journey the next day.

A WALK TO REMEMBER

My colleague Gaya and I are by no means in great physical shape. 

Full disclosure, the loop covers more ground than I've run this year. In fact, the last time I've covered a distance more than 20km was a decade ago when I wore green, carried a field pack and swore never to do it again.

But here we are, and because passing out on camera is not an option, I have been going on a number of walks in preparation. These walks took me from my home in Simei to East Coast and Changi Village - covering a distance 15km each time.

There is undoubtedly a sense of accomplishment that comes with completing each of these walks, and there is an element of enjoyment, even for somebody who is not an avid walker.

But we're well aware of the challenges that could lie en route. For one, the sweltering heat could potentially be a problem - we aim to begin each leg of the journey at 6am every morning and try to beat the afternoon heat by completing the distance for the day within eight hours.

There are also practical concerns - plotting out a course online and actually navigating the route in reality are two completely different things. 

Also, what if there are no toilets? (CW8888: Not an issue. Whenever you come across the next toilet after sometime; visit it. LOL!)  (If real urgent; hide behind the bush)

But this is part of the adventure, which we will be updating you regularly on over the next 5 days.

And we will press on, and welcome any and all suggestions on what we can do on the way. Hopefully our walk will be able to pique your interest to get out there and explore.

To quote poet T.S. Eliot: “We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time.”

In our case, that place would be Taman Jurong Hawker Centre.

(CW8888: Remember to watch out pack of wild/house dogs along quiet road of Lim Chu Kang. These dogs probably don't often people walking along the road towards them. From far; Uncle8888 saw them; cross the road to opposite side to avoid walking pass the dogs and his long umbrella ready to fight and defend against a pack of dogs. Bo pian! Dogs barking non-stop. One big brother dog wanted to cross the road to chase Uncle8888 but stopped when it heard an ongoing car approaching it!)





Sunday, 11 October 2020

Investing Your CPFIS - Not So Easy! (2)

Read?  Investing Your CPFIS - Not So Easy!

Ha ha! Now article on SundayTimes.
















Saturday, 10 October 2020

Investing Your CPFIS - Not So Easy!

Read?  New CPFIS fee caps should mean better investment outcomes


Over $27B in 2008 and under $17B in Q2 2020. 

A drastic drop of more than 37% despites CPF member balances have grown significantly!

Probably; more and more CPFIS investors learnt through hard investing lesson. It is NOT easy to beat 2.5% compounding interests over market cycles!

Read? What you will never hear at any investment seminars?




Depending on Investment Portfolio As Retirement Income - Next Year May Be Hit Harder!

 

Next year, those have dividend income coming from our three local banks may be hit harder with full year impact of dividend cap imposed by MAS! Sianz!

Uncle8888 has to plan ahead! More trading income and more deployment of war chest in 2021!

COVID-19 teaches real life FIRE lesson on investment income.

What can actually happen! Even part-timers and free-lancers can lose lose their jobs!




Thursday, 8 October 2020

Our Three Local Banks in SGX

You bet on all three banks or pick the best one?

So far; Uncle8888 has no position in UOB yet!













Tuesday, 6 October 2020

DBS : ONE STEP CLOSER TO SGD 6.00 (3)

Read?  DBS : ONE STEP CLOSER TO SGD 6.00 (2)

Strong resistance ahead!































Can STI recover towards 2,600?

 


Sunday, 4 October 2020

Same Like Stock Market. We can become their lunch when we thought we are safe!

 


DBS : ONE STEP CLOSER TO SGD 6.00 (2)

Read?  DBS : ONE STEP CLOSER TO SGD 6.00 (and followers paid subscription $$$ to follow this step closer to $6. LOL!)

Read? Round 24 - 1 : Bought back @ $19.68

or one step closer to $21?





Saturday, 3 October 2020

Financially Me, It is about Earning, Spending, Saving and Investing (3)

Read?  Financially Me, It is about Earning, Spending, Saving and Investing (2)

Read? Your Investment Portfolio is your Accelerator on the Road to Financial Independence!

Sound like broken Word Repeater!

The road to FI, FIRE or Semi or Full Retirement is NOT just based on our investing skills and starting as early as possible. How much capital we can inject periodically always matter!

When you look at Uncle8888's investment portfolio after 21 years without a single cent of capital injection since inception of investment portfolio in Jan 2000. It is flat! He was kiasi since 2000 as he thought that as single household income with five mouths to feed; he could not afford to lose any more money down the road as household expenses were expected to increase and retrenchment was always few years ahead of him! Sigh!

No uptrend compounding investment portfolio like we often see in long-term investment portfolio articles found in investment cyberspace! Super sianz!












Thursday, 1 October 2020

Financially Me, It is about Earning, Spending, Saving and Investing (2)

Read? Financially Me, It is about Earning, Spending, Saving and Investing

The investment portfolio performance outcome after 21 years of long-term investing and short-term trading across market cycles from Jan 2000 to Sep 2020.

Sigh!

He didn't make $1M from the stock market! Sianz!

Bagus! 

Blame himself for NOT taking up investment courses and be guided by "Gurus" to become Millionaire from stock market and FIRE???











Wednesday, 30 September 2020

Monkeys At Bus-stop

 


Hmm .. should I proceed? LOL!














4 Years Post-Retirement as Full-time Employee

Thursday, 29 September 2016

Read? Round The Coast Of Singapore Walking Trail (1)

4 years already!

Time passed so fast! 

Sometime, Uncle8888 came across the similar places that he had walked or jog before and smiled at the image of a senior walking sometime under hot sun! LOL!

Uncle8888 started his retirement journey as Johnny Walker to keep himself occupied and also at that Pokemon Go was still hot in him. Catch Them All! Walk and Catch them!

After walking the coast of Singapore; he then continued to jog all the six Park Connectors! This is how he replaced his previous working time in office cubicle with walking and jogging time in the open space and quite often returning home at night! "Work" far longer hours than in office cubicle!

Read? Revamped Pang Sua Pond in Bukit Panjang reopens

Read? Retiring in Comfort in Singapore - Replacement Income

Financially, 4 years post-retirement

COVID-19 really validated the sustainable retirement income for life strategy - Three Taps Solution model with Cash Reservoir to minimize any asset draw-down or sequence risks during market low cycle !

Read? My All-Weather Income Streams As Singaporean Retiree































Monday, 28 September 2020

SGX : Partial Sold @ $9.28 for Round 5-2

 Read? SGX : Partial Sold @ $9.01 for Round 5-1

Last highest sold is $9.01 in Round 5-1

Round 5 - 2 : ROC +9.1%,  112 days, B $8.48 S $9.28

Round 5 - 1 : ROC +5.9%,  102 days, B $8.48 S $9.01

Round 4 : ROC +8.5%, 6 days, B $8.01 S $8.74

Round 3 : ROC +8.8%, 12 days, B $8.21 S $8.99

Round 2 : ROC +13.6%, 3 days, B $7.46 S $8.52

Round 1 : ROC +12.3%, 61 days, B $6.87 S $7.76



DBS : ONE STEP CLOSER TO SGD 6.00

 From Cyberspace ...

September 26, 2020, 23:30•

4.2K

ONE STEP CLOSER TO SGD 6.00

 $DBS(D05.SI)  ...OIL BAD DEBTS!

------------------------------------------------------------

LOL!

Real person. Real waiting for $6 in GFC!

Read? On why sound investing principles will always work???

Real People. Real Story on DBS!

This ex-colleague who was some time also Uncle8888's lunch kaki.

During GFC 2008/2009; he was very keen to invest bigger on DBS; but in Mar 2009 he was still waiting for DBS to reach $6 before accumulating slowly!

When the market recovered he regretted big time; but; he did learn important lesson on investing!

This time in Jan 2016; when DBS went below $15; he started to accumulate slowly using his CPF fund as he has already reached 55 (Feeling rich with his bigger War Chest? How often can we beat CPF OA 2.5% with blue chip yield?)

In Investing; Your Account Size Really Matters! - CW8888

When DBS has crossed $19; he began to divest slowly. Uncle8888 last heard that he has fully divested all his DBS.




Sunday, 27 September 2020

Is “NOW” The Right Time To Invest in SGX market?

 Interesting question!

Somehow this time was about that Right or Wrong Time when Uncle8888 believe that Investing is the way to reach FI and get out of Rat Race after reading this book : Rich Dad. Poor Dad!

LOL!






New central green corridor connecting East Coast Park and Changi Beach Park to be created: Heng Swee Keat

 New central green corridor connecting East Coast Park and Changi Beach Park to be created: Heng Swee Keat


There are currently 34 Nature Ways in Singapore, stretching 130km in total. Over the next 10 years, National Parks Board (NParks) hopes to create 300km of Nature Ways, and to make every road a Nature Way in the long-term.

NParks will be engaging the community on these plans and will work with residents to develop programmes for these green spaces.

New nature-based amenities will also be built and connected to the network of corridors, Mr Heng said. These include more community gardens, more therapeutic gardens in parks, and nature play gardens for children, said Mr Heng, who visited Pulau Ubin on Saturday with Minister for National Development Desmond Lee.

The visit by Mr Heng and Mr Lee marked the 9th edition of Ubin Day, which was first held in 2002. Ubin Day aims to celebrate the rich heritage of the island, with its associated activities shifted online this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

---------------------

Hmm .. when this is completed; Uncle8888 still got power legs to walk or not???

Read? Jog The Singapore's Park Connectors - Round 7

Read? Round The Coast (ACCESSIBLE) Of Singapore Walking Trail (7)





Financially Me, It is about Earning, Spending, Saving and Investing


 From Past to Present, financially me is about earning, spending, saving and investing!


Investment Portfolio from Jan 2000 to Sep 2020 (21 yrs). Just SGX stocks!












Discounting the future investment income based on current state of investing mind; but our mind is NOT something we have control when we are aging farther down the retirement road! 





Friday, 25 September 2020

Buy & Hold for Golden Eggs or Trading Buy Back and Sell? Which strategy works better?

 Uncle8888's own data point of ONE for DBS

1) Buy and hold for Golden Eggs i.e passive income surviving the emotional roller coaster ride through market cycle.

2) Trading through buy back and sell and also collecting Panadols for X Rounds.

DBS at today closing price.

Hmm ... showed that he is a lousy trader or what?







Thursday, 24 September 2020

Dow closes more than 500 points lower as tech pressure mounts, Apple slides 4%

 Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, adding to September’s struggles, as tech shares took another leg lower and investors fretted over uncertainty around the coronavirus pandemic and further stimulus. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 525.05 points lower, or 1.9%, at 26,763.13. Earlier in the session, the Dow was up 176 points. The S&P 500 slid 2.4% to 3,236.92 and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back by 3% to close at 10,632.99.

“Investors are being whipsawed by conflicting COVID headlines and the growth vs. cyclical debate,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a note. “The result is sentiment souring on both growth and cyclical for the moment (which obviously means stocks are for sale broadly).”

Shares of Amazon and Netflix dropped 4.1% and 4.2%, respectively, to lead Big Tech lower. Facebook slid 2.3%. Alphabet closed 3.5% lower. Apple ended the day down 4.2% and Microsoft dipped 3.3%.

Shares of Tesla fell 10.3% after Elon Musk offered new delivery predictions for 2020 and detailed a new battery design that he claims will make Tesla’s cars cheaper to produce. The stock was also under pressure after Tesla sued the U.S. government to overturn tariffs on China. 

--------------------------------------------

Panic selling of banks in SGX?

See got chance to buy back DBS 24-2? :-)








Wednesday, 23 September 2020

Warren Buffet's Rule 1 & 2

 Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1. - Warren Buffett

Parroting Warren Buffet's Rule 1 & 2 here!

Currently, meeting 35% of Rule 1 & 2, another 6 to 8 years to fully meet 100%! 

Never lose money ever again as Mr Market can't never take back what has been spent! LOL!







Tuesday, 22 September 2020

Round 24 - 1 : Bought back @ $19.68

 Read? DBS : Sold @ $19.88

Last sold @ $19.88 was an Alamak sale!

Today bought back @ $19.68.  Another Alamak?







Stock futures rise in overnight trading after S&P 500 posts 4-day losing streak

 Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading on Monday following a steep sell-off on Wall Street.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 100 points. The S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.5%.

The market’s September sell-off intensified on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 500 points, suffering its worst day since Sept. 8. The S&P 500 lost 1.2%, posting its first four-day losing streak since February. The Nasdaq Composite dipped just 0.1% after a late-day comeback rally.

Hmm... can continue fishing in STI?

Got chance to buy back SGX and DBS?










Monday, 21 September 2020

Sunday, 20 September 2020

Made 10,000 People Millionaires??? (2)

When Uncle8888 read this in the morning, he smiled!

That was more than one decade ago when he poked late local "Guru" whose life goal was to make 10,000 people millionaires through his investment training course! But, Uncle8888 still respected late "Guru" who had never ban or moderated him in his forum despites occasional poking - Chun bo?

Read? Made 10,000 People Millionaires???










Saturday, 19 September 2020

Lack of Entrepreneurship Or Money Earned Enough or Money Can't Never Earn Enough Why Try or Bother?



















1. The only stall in Singapore i.e. no other branch. No franchise! Why?

2. No fixed rest days or SOLD out and close early! If you are coming from elsewhere to eat his prawn mee and to avoid disappointment and waste your travelling, you call the mobile to check first! You have been advised. LOL!

What is the moral of the story?

Lack of entrepreneurship?

Money earned enough?

Money can't never earn enough why try or bother or slog?

Others?

When Uncle8888 started working at Robinson Rd in 1977; almost every workday morning he would have breakfast at Lau Pat Sat and drank Ya Kun Kopi-O made by old man Ah Koon himself!

Old man Ah Koon was lack of entrepreneurship?

Old man Ah Koon was a Loser?

His son is an entrepreneur and turned Ya Kun into business owner model.  

Today; Uncle8888 saw the prawn mee boss's son helping out at the stall. May be one day; when old man gone; his son may go into franchise model.



I am the Free Rider in SGX on investment income after 11 Years of Short-term Trading and Long-term Investing as Panda/Koala Retail Investor

SGX : The Past is not bad. The Present is lousy! The Future is uncertain?

So how?

What if you have became a free rider from the past SGX and most likely continue to receive yearly and relatively "passive" income? You still go and bang your head against Wall Street?

What is the Secret to become to become Free Rider in SGX?

Hmm ..

Be addicted to continuous doses of Panadols until your heart and brain becoming immune to emotional pains; and then one day you realized OMG, I am a Free Rider now!



Read?The income edge in the stock market

Chances of losing money after a decade is 25%; when dividends are included, it is cut to just 2%

I HAVE a simple rule about investing. I put any cash that I don't need for at least the next five years into the stock market. I don't pay too much attention to pundits who warn about markets being dizzyingly-high or worryingly-low that could drop further. That's because over any rolling five years, the stock market should be higher at the end of the period than at the beginning.

Don't just take my word for it. If you look at the Straits Times Index at any point in time and go back five years, there is a 40 per cent chance that the index would have been lower. That might not seem too alluring. But that's because dividends haven't been accounted for, yet. When the payouts are included, the probability that the investment would be worth more after any rolling five years jumps to 83 per cent.

Is 10 years an eternity?

What is even more remarkable is that the chances of losing money over any ten-year period after including dividends are reduced even further. Some might think of 10 years as an eternity. But it's not, if we plan to invest for decades.

Many of us will need to do that if we are putting money aside for our retirements. If we invest with a 10-year time horizon in mind, the chances of losing money after a decade is 25 per cent. When dividends are included, it is cut to just 2 per cent.

To put that into perspective, if we put our money into shares every month for 10 years, we would be making 120 separate deposits. Of those discrete investments, only two would be lower after a decade. With the odds so overwhelmingly in our favour, why would we want to miss out. Additionally, the more often we invest, the greater could be our chances of success.


A ten-year investing horizon is a convenient period to consider because we generally benchmark investments against risk-free assets such as 10-year Treasuries. This is where investing in shares really comes into its own. The average total return in the stock market over 10 years is 70 per cent, which equates to an annualised rate of 5.5 per cent. That compares favourably with a risk-free return rate of 0.25 per cent.


Comfort and joy


What is undeniable, though, is that it can be uncomfortable (or it could even be exhilarating) over any ten-year period from the moment an investment is made.


If we had invested in 1998, the return after 10 years would be 143 per cent. But if we had done the same in 1999, the return would have been a meagre 52 per cent after a decade. That is part and parcel of investing. But nobody ever buys shares just the once and never goes back into the market ever again.


At least, we shouldn't. We should try to develop a routine of investing regular amounts frequently. We should also take with a pinch of salt what experts might have to say about valuations.


Peter Lynch said the secret of successful investing is to never trust our gut feelings but discipline ourselves to ignore them. We should also learn to stand firm if the fundamental story of the company we invest in hasn't changed.


The market, incidentally, is not a great place to check the fundamentals of a business. But it can be a good place to see if anyone is doing something foolish.


Crystal clear


The alternative to the stock market could be to buy some of those risk-free 10-year Treasuries. That way, we are at least guaranteed to get our money back intact. But with an investment in the stock market, there is a risk that our investment could go down as well as up.


However, the loss is only crystallised if we don't stay the course. If we can hang on through the tough times, the chances of losing money over ten years is almost negligible.


Unfortunately, some people can't tolerate the roller-coaster ride that stock markets can take us on.


Or as Mr Lynch said: "Everyone has the brainpower to make money from stocks. Not everyone has the stomach."


The income edge

This is where income investors have a distinct edge. We focus on the income that a share could produce, rather than its share price. The problem with share prices is that they can be a function of market sentiment. When more people want to buy shares, prices will probably rise. But when there are more sellers than buyers, prices could fall. However, the dividends paid by a company don't change with market sentiment.

Instead, they are a function of the fundamentals of the business. So, market highs, market lows, market corrections and market crashes are irrelevant to income investors. We are guided by how much we pay for every dollar of income a share can deliver.

There can be times when we might have to pay more, and times when we could pay less. But we are continually buying tomorrow's income with today's money because one day that will be the only income that we will have to live off.


The writer is co-founder, The Smart Investor

Friday, 18 September 2020

SGX : Partial Sold @ $9.01 for Round 5-1

Read?  SGX : Bought @ $8.21 for Round 6

Last highest sold is $8.99 in Round 3

Round 5 - 1 : ROC +5.9%,  102 days, B $8.48 S $9.01

Round 4 : ROC +8.5%, 6 days, B $8.01 S $8.74

Round 3 : ROC +8.8%, 12 days, B $8.21 S $8.99

Round 2 : ROC +13.6%, 3 days, B $7.46 S $8.52

Round 1 : ROC +12.3%, 61 days, B $6.87 S $7.76



Why You Should Use Your CPF To Pay For Your Property And Mortgage

 Uncle8888 also joins in the Fun!

Assuming you have the flexibility to pay home mortgage with either CPF or Cash; Uncle8888 will vote for CPF. Why?

If you are decades away from 55; your CPF is just Rich Asset making you feeling good! Every year you smile when you login into CPF online to check CPF interests. Passive income!

Passive income?

Chun bo?

Unfortunately; you kena retrenched and month after month still cannot find a job. Your CPF interests still passive income?

Before 55; CPF is NOT King. Your Cash is King!

You can use your Cash to invest 100% or less! Up to you! Your skills and investment outcome should be telling you whether you should continue to be investing MORE or saving MORE!

During emergency or unfortunately kena retrenched; your Cash is Handsome King!

When your investment outcome clearly indicates that you should be taking up the Saver route; then you start to refund your housing loan back to CPF OA. Finally, one day you realized your mistakes of listening to investment warriors in the cyber world to invest to become rich. Instead of becoming rich in the market; you are slaves in the market making them richer!

By this time of awakening; you should be nearer to 55 when you started to refund your housing loan to CPF OA.

When you reach 55; your CPF is Handsome King!


 








Thursday, 17 September 2020

Who influence you into investing? (3)


Read?  Who influence you into investing? (2)

Read? Should I be very disappointed by STI poor performance since last Bull market in 2007 to grow my Net Worth?

Recent debate in investing forum and social media.

STI or Overseas markets?

Are you a devotee or one of eight immortals?

"The Eight Immortals cross the sea, each reveals its divine powers" (八仙過海,各顯神通; bā xiān guò hǎi, gè xiǎn shén tōng) indicates the situation that everybody shows off their skills and expertise to achieve a common goal.

Similarly. every retail investors need to find your own skills and expertise in whichever market you have decided to achieve your investing goals and safely cross over the Sea to the Land of Financial Independence! 

Once you arrived at Land of Financial Independence then you can chart your own journey to FIRE, Semi-Retirement or Retirement. You may not have  to worry financially; but still have to worry over physical health, mental health and aging. LOL!

Uncle8888's crossed the Sea with Panda and Koala in Singapore Zoo! 



















Wednesday, 16 September 2020

Is Temasek Better Off As Panda/Koala Investor in Singapore???

Read? Temasek’s net portfolio value drops from record high after COVID-19 ‘cut short’ promising year

Our initial portfolio in 1974 reflected Singapore's early stages of industrialisation. Some of these companies, and others added since, have grown into iconic Singapore brands, such as DBS and the Singapore Zoo. Others, like Singtel, Singapore Airlines and PSA, have transformed into regional and global champions.

In recent years, we have been investing in several trends driven by social progress, demographic shifts and changing consumption patterns, enabled by technological advances.

We continue to seek innovative companies at the forefront of developing new, sometimes disruptive, solutions that create new opportunities, while addressing the growing needs of the world's population.

As at 31 March 2020, our net portfolio value was S$306 billion.



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