I started serious Investing Journey in Jan 2000 to create wealth through long-term investing and short-term trading; but as from April 2013 my Journey in Investing has changed to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Since 2017 after retiring from full-time job as employee; I am moving towards Investing Nirvana - Freehold Investment Income for Life investing strategy where 100% of investment income from portfolio investment is cashed out to support household expenses i.e. not a single cent of re-investing!

It is 57% (2017 to Aug 2022) to the Land of Investing Nirvana - Freehold Income for Life!


Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Showing posts with label Education - Trading - Stop Loss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Education - Trading - Stop Loss. Show all posts

Saturday, 14 January 2023

Stop-loss, Cut-loss for Switching Horses and Position Sizing and NO Leverage! (2)

Wah! Uncle8888 was very surprised when he read  If I am a dividend investor, this is what I would do….

4. No earn no sell especially for dividend stock. Keep long term, no stop loss policy because point 1 is followed.

This rule is contrary to what most people would do. No cut loss policy.

I have learnt this rule from Createwealth8888. If you didn’t do any leverage/plan allocation well (Rule 3) and only buy good stocks that let you sleep well (Rule 1), there is no need for you to cut loss.

Price drop, just hold and collect dividends as Panadols. Throughout the years, treat the dividend (or simply use the Trading around Core Strategy – Rule 5 below) to reduce the average cost of your shares. The worst case is stock goes to zero or in most case, your average cost will be reduced over time.

Read? Stop-loss, Cut-loss for Switching Horses and Position Sizing and NO Leverage!


Saturday, 25 September 2021

Stop-loss, Cut-loss for Switching Horses and Position Sizing and NO Leverage!

 Hi Bro CW8888

What do you think of Venture, kept dropping after I bought at $19.77 but collected 2 rounds of dividen d at $500 & $250.

Should cut?

Thanks for your advice.

-------------------------------------

Read? Posts relating to Stop Loss

Stop-loss is for traders and cut-loss is for investor to switch horses. 

Are you in pain of seeing escalating paper losses; then you should sell to relieve your pains. 

Pains no more! Only regrets after that!

Choose Pain or Regret?

Got Panadols to ease pain? 













Saturday, 25 February 2017

Do You Know What Is Market Cycle and Sector Cycle??? (2)


Read? Do You Know What Is Market Cycle and Sector Cycle???

Read? No Cut Losses & Multi-baggers For Long Time (2)


Cut losses fast and live to fight another day!

It could be true for trading for a living as they depend on cash flow to put food on the table. But; for retail investors who put food on the table from their earned income ; it is a different story!

Depending on who you ask?

Cut losses fast and live to fight ANOTHER day! 

For traders, they have to fight every other day and definitely have to fight another day; otherwise they will starve!

But; for retail investors over market cycles and sector; how true is cutting losses into holding MORE cash when you have war chest?

Do you have to live and fight another day? or every other day?

It is more likely when retail investors panic and cut losses into holding MORE CASH; they are more likely to stay away from the market for a long time. 

Once we cut losses into realized losses; it is very hard to recover by holding cash. We can't never recover from holding cash. The cash has to be invested again to recover from losses.

But; what Uncle8888 has observed so far that many retail investors after cut losses; they will stay away from the market far too long to recover.


Thursday, 29 September 2016

The Law of Large Losses!


Read? Don't lose too much even it is paper losses as it can be very hard to recover those paper losses without pumping in more new capital from your saving.


After soaking in both realized and paper losses for more than 16 years in pain until he became so seasoned; now he fully understand the Law of Large Losses and manage to find a less stressful or painful way to mitigate it. LOL!



Wednesday, 3 August 2016

No Cut Losses & Multi-baggers For Long Time (2)



Read? No Cut Losses & Multi-baggers For Long Time

In RETAIL investing; where we ALONE and OURSELVES are fully responsible for our own money but there will be full of  CONVENTIONAL market wisdom folks offering their free advice thinking they are "smarter" in their portfolio and management without proving their strategy is so superior.

Conventional market wisdom : Cut loss to preserve capital to fight again!

Conventional market wisdom will generally work well for the mass.


What if we are not those who are on this path of conventional market wisdom?

Doom? Die?

Uncle8888 made Hay while Sun shines and avoid having to pull out any Winter weeds. He has plenty of Hays to survive long and harsh; why he needs to worry over those smaller Weeds that won't kill him?

He doesn't need to eat Water Melon into the Green as he can afford to waste some juicy Red without feeling much pain.

In investing; it is all about 3Ms- method, MIND, and MONEY MANAGEMENT.

Money management is NOT just about CUT LOSSES. It is more than those conventional thinking.














Tuesday, 2 August 2016

No Cut Losses & Multi-baggers For Long Time


There is no such thing as the Right Tool for everyone in the stock market; but only the person himself or herself delivering his or her own "RIGHT" tool whatever they deem it is correct to reach their investing goals.

Zero beggars and Mulit-baggers are twin sisters at both side of the same coin.


Read? Patience In The Stock Market??? (3)

Monday, 25 July 2016

Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash! (3)


Read? Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash! (2)


Many retail investors are trapped by their by own emotions so doing the Maths matters!

The Real case for the Maths!
 
 
 
 
 
Assuming 50% dividends cut from FY 15 H2, FY 16 full year dividend payout for Kep Corp = $0.08 + $0.11 = $0.19.
 
 
HOLDING: Yield on investment cost for position held @ $9.67 is about 2% yield.
 
CUT LOSS INTO CASH WHILE WAITING: Less than 1% yield.
 
 
The Maths showed that cut losses into cash does little to help the investor's wallet; but it may heal frustrated or broken heart.
 
Cut loss to immediately switch to another Horse is a different matter!
 
 
See the difference!
 
Overheard someone after learning this strategy from Uncle8888; she has significantly recovered her losses after the recent sales of some switched Horses.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 






Sunday, 24 July 2016

Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash! (2)


Read? Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash!


True Story!

This debate happened many years ago at one cbox.

Why don't you cut losses?

What is the reason?

To recover back some capital to re-invest.

Hmmm ....

What if we have plenty of capital in the War Chest, we still need to cut losses to raise more cash to follow the Street's advice?

Dumb or Smart?

What you think?














Friday, 11 December 2015

Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash!



Wah a straight line from 2009 onwards. Now Uncle is waiting for the big bear to come :D

ReplyDelete


Did you also see what B saw?

See what B saw? Is Our Net Worth Sustainable Across Market and Economics Cycles?



(1) Cut losses and lock in negative return. Stay in cold hard cash while waiting to get back to the market?


(2) Hold the great pain and wait for market opportunity to cut losses and switch horses?


What B saw now is what Uncle8888 has done towards the end 2008.  As market dropped farther our balls shrunk even faster and farther. We may even try to preserve the little leftover cash that we have! It is damn irrational!

No free lunch. We will reap what we sow in the market!

What did you see in 2008?

Is the reason for B's observation in the image?

How did he manage to recover?





















Read? Cut losses - The Truth, The Pain, and The Chance!






Monday, 14 September 2015

No Stop Loss. How???


 Someone said ...

See the portfolio drop quite alot, actually v should be patient right? But then when v should re- balance our portfolio? Read alot people cut loss to increase their cash balance. Think v shld sell when market is doing well, mayb should control our mind.

Uncle8888 said ...

Either you have stop loss strategy or none. Avoid doing late cut losses!

LATE cut losses into cash is another form of market timing. Once we have locked in negative return; it is very difficult to recover with cash only. We need to get back to stocks to recover. How many people are good at market timing to get back into stocks?


Read? Keynes Way To Wealth

Read? No Stop-Loss strategies

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Switching Horses Is Not Same As Cut Losses Into Cash???


Old man loves to repeat the same old stories over again and again to younger ones. You listen until sianz; but not the old man who does the talking.





Cutting losses is also market timing. Are we really good at market timing?

Cutting losses into cash (Exits)  is not the same as switching horses. When we have locked in negative return by cutting losses into cash it becomes very hard to recover from cash position as it will require another market timing to get the right Entries. How good are we?

What Uncle8888 did at last GFC ...


Read? No Stop losses 

Bleeding heart when we have large paper losses as the more we look at them the more it becomes so real and bleeding!

Super sianz!


 











Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Cut loss or Write it off???



Just For Thinking ...



Are you struggling with yourself constantly whether to cut loss or not?


One way to overcome your emotion and stop struggling any more.


Do you still have plenty of cash rotting in the bank as War Chest?

If yes, write it down to one cent per share and move on.

Now when you look at that stock again. It is a winning stock. Right?

Only when you run short of money, then start thinking about this "winning" stock. Cut loss for capital!

It is all in the Mind!






Sunday, 15 September 2013

Who is the Other Twin Sister of Stop-loss who is not commonly known???




 
Read? Uncle8888 does not practise Stop Loss!









Who is the Other Twin Sister of Stop-loss who is not commonly known to retail traders or investors???



You are in some profit but when your stock price turns quickly against you.






You hit the Sell button! Think later.

Taking profit is never wrong hor!




It is never wise to love One Twin deeply and hate the Other Twin easily.



Who is the Other Twin Sister?

Too cheam???

Time to buy Uncle8888?


















Sunday, 12 May 2013

Realized or unrealized losses??? Does it seriously matter??? (2)



Read? Realized or unrealized losses??? Does it seriously matter???


No stop loss!


Is Uncle8888 suffering from loss aversion and disposition effect too?


No stop loss?

If you have a worry problem, do these three things:

1. Ask yourself: “What is the worst that can possibly happen?”
2. Prepare to accept it if you have to.
3. Then calmly proceed to improve on the worst.”

(Carnegie 49)


1. Ask yourself: “What is the worst that can possibly happen?”

Lost 100%

2. Prepare to accept it if you have to.


Only invest those money that is not required over next 3 - 5 years

3. Then calmly proceed to improve on the worst.”

We are seldom right in our stock pick.

So when we are lucky to be right. Be brave. Sit tight and win big!

We must win more XXX% to offset few 100% losses.


Let your winning spirit takeover and huat!





Thursday, 12 April 2012

Realized or unrealized losses??? Does it seriously matter???

Read? No stop loss??? The truth behind Uncle8888's no stop loss strategy. Know what you are doing!

"Track, measure, and visualise investment performance" - Createwealth8888

Realised or unrealised losses?

The way that I track, measure, and visualise my investment performance and doing cash and portfolio management will  determine the relevance and significance of realising losses to recover cash for investing i.e. opportunity cost.

I measure Portfolio XIRR to visualise performance.

Portfolio = Current stocks value +  Investible Cash  = Capital + Realised P/L + Unrealised P/L

By just moving from Unrealised P/L to Realised P/L it will not significantly change the Portfolio XIRR unless I have the market wisdom of seeing a huge Bear appearing at the horizon soon.

Cash, Opportunity cost and Recovery

Cash rotting in the bank will NOT help me to recover my locked in negative return. We cannot recover losses in stocks by holding cash. No way!

Powerful ways to overcome your emotions in the stock market. Truly understand how you manage your cash and  portfolio is the key!

Read? More post on Portfolio Management





Sunday, 26 February 2012

No stop loss??? The truth behind Uncle8888's no stop loss strategy. Know what you are doing!

Cut losses - The Truth, The Pain, and The Chance! (2)

The truth behind Uncle8888's no stop loss!

Uncle8888 has no-stop loss and he knows what he is doing. But, are you absolutely sure that no stop-loss strategy is actually right for you in the long run? Think about it seriously.

It is critical that you fully understand this!!!

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." ~ George Soros

Any capital losses whether it is realised or unrealised losses are capital invested with NEGATIVE GROWTH and over long run you are going to be badly hit by inflationary impact. So it is not a simple matter of holding power or not! You must carefully evaluate you own investing performance and determine whether is no stop loss strategy is still right for you? For how long can you continue to take on negative growth?

What happen if no stop loss?

In the worst case, you will lose 100% of your invested capital. If you are prepared to lose 100% of your capital; then are you equally capable of holding multi-baggers to offset losses. If you think your emotions and personal psychology doesn't allow you to do it; then you better think twice of no stop loss stratgey as it may not be actually right for you.

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." ~ George Soros


Wise words from George Soros!!!















Saturday, 13 August 2011

Cut losses - The Truth, The Pain, and The Chance! (2)

Read? Cut losses - The Truth, The Pain, and The Chance!

For the past two weeks, have you been cutting your losses in the stock market or you are preparing to cut losses soon and then stay sideline to wait for clearer confirmation of rebounding to re-enter. I am not sure how many of us are that technically savvy and seasoned enough now to spot that clear market reversal signal.

What looks like a Rebound may actually be a Dead Cat Bounce too.

In a full blown Bearish market, there will be several instances of Dead Cat bounces.

Cutting losses

Classic textbooks advice that you should cut your losses fast and live to fight another day. Paper losses are real and they may cause you opportunity cost in the stock market.

But, how sound are these classic advices?

Actually, it will depend who are you in the stock market and your stocks pick strategy. By locking in those negative returns through cutting losses and thinking that you can get back in time for stock recovery. But, when you have missed it and coming back to the stock market too late. It may create bad outcomes in your investment portfolio recovery.

Who are you in the stock market and your stocks pick?
  1. Do you have a long-term investing goals?
  2. You DO NOT need to withdraw significant amount from your current investment portfolio in the next 2-3 years to meet some big expenses?
  3. Does your stocks still expected to pay you decent dividend yield of at least 3-4% in coming 2-3 years?
  4. Does your stocks have past history of staging strong stock price recovery in the bull market?
If your answers to 1-4 are all YES, you may want to think again of cutting losses. It may be better for you to leave your stocks alone to recover from paper losses while taking your next stock dividends payment as pain killer.


Wednesday, 1 June 2011

Cut losses - The Truth, The Pain, and The Chance!

I hate losses in stocks so I don't have stop-loss; but that HATE doesn't prevent me from cutting losses in stocks.  Painfully, I did it a few times! Bo pian.


Stop Loss


Stop loss is when you pre-determine your own exit price to take the loss and walk away. It is just one of those bad trades and it is not that painful as the loss tends to be smaller.

Cut Loss

Cut loss is different from Stop Loss. Cut loss is when you felt so hopeless at the falling stock price and it has reached your threshold of pain. You bite your finger and sell it and move to the sideline for a while. Cut loss is usually bigger and more painful.


Read? More posts related to stop losses

When to cut losses?

When you still have some fund left to invest in other stocks; your opportunity cost for staying in paper losses is actually very low i.e. you are just missing out the saving rate of less than 1% in the bank.

But, when you run OUT of cash to invest; then it has become a different story. Your opportunity cost are now costly as you are potentially missing out some promising stocks in the market that can help you to make a meaningful recovery in your portfolio.

No Money. No New Stocks.
No New Stocks. No Chance for Recovery.

How to change Horse?

Only when you have spotted a potential promising horse (oops, don't be wrong again) that may help you to recover faster; then you cut losses. This is Change Horse strategy. You can't expect your dying horse to suddenly wake up and start running.  When you switch horse, you have to ensure that the quantity of shares remain the same or more; otherwise the rate of recovery will be slower.

For example, you are cutting losses on 10,000 shares of HW; then you have to switch to a better horse of 10,000 or more to retain the rate of recovery with the new horse. Get it?

Sunday, 21 November 2010

To make money fight 'fleeing instinct'

Read? Stop loss or Cut loss?

By Philips Loh, invest, Nov 21, 2010, the sundaytimes

Some key points noted in the articles:

  • The urge to cut loss when stocks fall works against 'buy low, sell high' tactic
  • Qualities of a good investor - The most successful investors are those who are able to overcome their innate fear and greed during wild market gyrations, and discern real risks, as opposed to perceived ones. They have a keen awareness of their limitations and predictive powers.
  • Associating the wrong reasons with a profitable trade can be damaging to our investment quotient in the longer run.
  • We must not forget that the markets are full of predatory players who make a living out of having small investors for lunch. These professionals do so well because they are experts at tricking retail investors into reaching wrong conclusions. Therefore to do well in the investment game, investors must be keenly aware of their instinctive ability to detect a pattern and react accordingly, overcome this instinct. Only then can they raise the probability of scoring gains in the game.

Read more? Portfolio Management - Stop Losses?

Wednesday, 26 May 2010

Stop loss or Cut loss?

Createwealth8888:

Stop Loss

Stop loss is when you pre-determine your own exit price to take the loss and walk away. It is just one of those bad trades and it is not that painful as the loss tends to be smaller.

Cut Loss

Cut loss is different from Stop Loss. Cut loss is when you felt so hopeless at the falling stock price and it has reached your threshold of pain. You bite your finger and sell it and move to the sideline for a while.  Cut loss is usually bigger and more painful.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BT, Wed, May 26, 2010, Singapore

Resisting the urge to sell low


When stock markets lurch, hasty decisions taken at anxious moments can be extremely costly to investors


IF you've got money in the stock market, take a deep breath: It's one of those moments. The market is lurching, and that is precisely when impulsive behavior can hurt the most. Investing can be a delightful pastime when stocks are rising. When they are falling - which has often been the case lately - it can be excruciating. But hasty decisions taken at anxious moments can be extremely costly.

'When a lot of people reach their threshold of pain, they sell their stocks and try to move to more secure holdings.'

'When a lot of people reach their threshold of pain, they sell their stocks and try to move to more secure holdings - cash, bonds, Treasuries,' said Louis S Harvey, president of Dalbar, a fund research firm in Boston. 'These decisions don't work out very well for most people.' Over the long haul, the average investor has badly underperformed the overall stock market: Through December, over the last 20 years, the average stock fund investor has had annualised returns of only 3.2 per cent, compared with 8.2 per cent for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, according to Dalbar. Short-sighted moves in down periods account for much of the deficit, Mr Harvey said.

Lately, anxiety among investors undoubtedly has been rising. The flash crash of May 6 - the biggest intraday swing in market history - didn't help. Shortly after 2.30pm that day, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1,000 points - and then came most of the way back, all in a matter of minutes.

The causes of that sharp drop aren't yet entirely clear, although they appear to be related in part to glitches in the connections of lightning-quick computerised stock trading across the United States.

In response, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last week said it would temporarily impose 'circuit breakers' on stocks in the S&P 500 when they have fallen 10 per cent or more in a five-minute period. The SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission say they are still studying the crash, but don't yet understand it. And then there's the Greek crisis. Since the announcement of a nearly US$1 trillion bailout package for Greece and other fiscally strained eurozone countries, turmoil in global markets has not abated. Despite an upturn on Friday, stocks have been choppy; the dollar, Treasury bonds and gold prices have risen; and oil and the euro have plummeted.

Professional asset managers have been responding as best they can.

Robert C Doll, vice-chairman and global chief investment officer for equities at BlackRock, the investment management firm, says he thinks the American market is likely to remain relatively volatile for an extended period - and then resume its climb.

In addition to the angst caused by the flash crash, and the problems in Europe, Doll points to the bear market in China and the threat of economic slowdown there, as well as domestic issues in the United States. These include continuing uncertainty about regulatory reform, investigations into the activities of Goldman Sachs and other banks, and the unsettled state of the American economy. He says two other 'scenarios' are possible, but much less likely.

One is a global meltdown, with the Greek crisis morphing into 'Lehman II', the probability of which has been reduced by prompt action by European authorities. And the other is a quick resumption of the roaring bull market that took the S&P 500 up 80 per cent. But there are too many problems for that to be very likely in the next month or two, he said.

For long-term diversified investors, he said, it probably makes sense to ride out the storm, and, maybe, add to your holdings. 'Keep your shoulder harness on, and your seatbelt secured, and your life should be OK,' he said.

There are even reasons to be encouraged by the health of the global economy, said Larry Hatheway, chief economist and chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank. While he acknowledged the negative effects of the 'sovereign debt crisis' in Europe and myriad problems elsewhere, he also said: 'Signs of growth are very strong and incoming data is beating expectations, and this is true in all major economies, in all major regions around the world.'

Corporate profits are surging, Mr Hatheway said. Firms that cut costs in the recession are reaping immediate bottom-line benefits as revenue rises in a global recovery. And, finally, he said, central banks in Europe, the United States and Japan have kept short-term rates 'extraordinarily low, near zero.' 'We've got low rates, strong profits and strong growth,' he said.

'That's a pretty powerful combination to boost stock prices.' It makes sense for big institutions to engage in tactical manoeuvres - buying stocks that seem cheap because of a market drop, for example, and emphasising sectors that may benefit from economic shifts, said Derek L Young, chief investment officer at Fidelity's global asset allocation group. Fidelity is analysing the implications of a possible 'prolonged period of weakness in the eurozone'.

One thing you don't want to do, he said, 'whether you're a professional or an individual investor, is to make an emotional judgment about the marketplace.' - NYT


"When you are emotional, you make unwise decisions rapidly." - Warren Buffet
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