Sunday, 30 August 2020
One positive on COVID-19 is .... we may now know what is our own basic household income for living without overseas vacations and also providing clue to the amount of investment income that is needed to supplement CPF Life above our own basic living in Singapore.
Saturday, 29 August 2020
What is FOMO?
Fear of missing out is a social anxiety stemmed from the belief that others might be having fun while the person experiencing the anxiety is not present. It is characterized by a desire to stay continually connected with what others are doing. Wikipedia
Learn to pronounce
anxiety that an exciting or interesting event may currently be happening elsewhere, often aroused by posts seen on social media.
"I realized I was a lifelong sufferer of FOMO"
How to overcome investment FOMO
Hmm .. so investment FOMO is really bad???
Why nobody talks about How to overcome CPF FOMO?
CPF Top Up or CPF OA transfer to SA to become 1M65 FOMO in your 20s or 30s is really good!
CPF FOMO is okay but investment FOMO is not okay? Not biased opinion?
Walau! Anything can happen in the market! FOMO!
Read? Investor bet on Hang Seng Tech ETF goes south
CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (3033), Hong Kong’s first exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech index, gained by 1.5 percent on debut to HK$7.615 per unit, while a group of investors lost 60 percent buying the units at HK$20.
The ETF once surged by 1.67 times in the pre-opening session from its offer price of HK$7.5 per unit.
The group of retail investors made their offer on Valuable Capital’s platform under mainland Sina Corporation, local media reported.
The Hang Seng Tech Index hit a record high of 7,745 points before paring the gains to close at 7,580 points today.
A spokesman from CSOP Asset Management denied that there was no mispricing of the ETF and the net asset value of the ETF has not changed a lot, but there could be significant differences between the price and the net asset value in a short period before the market opened, due to the difference between demand and supply during the bidding session.
The investment house reminded investors to pay attention to price fluctuations of newly-listed securities and make investment decisions based on the net asset value. The ETF recorded a turnover of HK$3.05 billion.
Big losses on Day 1
Uncle8888's friend went in to join the Tech Bloom ...
Large volume change hand during the falling off the cliff!
Thursday, 27 August 2020
A HDB loft at Punggol Sapphire estate was recently sold for S$900,000.
The previous owner had purchased the flat directly from HDB for S$468,000 in May 2008
Wednesday, 26 August 2020
Someone in BIGS World FB asked this :
"It's often said that time in the market > timing market. Are there concrete studies done on this & what were the returns assumption on the non-invested capital?"
But, received no response yet!
Hmm .. okay!
No concrete studies ! Just data points of two to check on curiosity of favorite quote at personal level.
Time in the market or Timing the market?
Uncle8888's two recently traded rounds for DBS and SGX
1. Time in Market i.e. Buy and Hold for Panadols/Golden Eggs
Hold for 17 years since SARS in 2003. TSR over 17 years is 355%
2 Timing the Market
After Round 3, TSR is 344%. Buy and hold win at the current moment!
1. Time in Market i.e. Buy and Hold for Panadols/Golden Eggs
If still holding SGX, TSR over 5 years is 45%
2 Timing the Market
The initial position in SGX sold at $7.46 was split into 2 Rounds for buying back as follows
TSR for Round 5 and 6 is not much different at 41% and 46% between Time in the market and Timing the market
Personal observation over this quote : Time in the Market or Timing the Market
It is never about the Method and which one is superior!
It will always be the person behind executing the 3Ms - Method, Mind and Money Management that matters most!
Monday, 24 August 2020
Uncle8888 adds on one more data point to the above blog post!
Invest on our human asset or human capital to generate multibagger return!
Hmm .. Uncle8888 decided to voluntary early retire@60 at his highest annual income after tax ever. Alamak! What a waste!
SMOL: Quitting when we are ahead is not the same as quitting. LOL!
Which one is easier?
Focus on your earned income or investment income?
Uncle8888's earned income after tax from 1985 to 2015.
His earned income has beaten the sea of inflation.
His earned income after tax was the highest before quitting the Rat Race and that is 4x the lowest income in 1986.
Saturday, 22 August 2020
Read? Retiring in Comfort - An SGX and Oliver Wyman paper on retirement savings
Singaporeans face a retirement challenge – how to ensure a desirable lifestyle post retirement
without overreliance on external sources. Historically, many retired Singaporeans have relied on
their children as the main source of financial support. However, shifting demographics due to
increases in life expectancy and low birth rates put limitations on the extent to which this model is
sustainable. It is therefore paramount that Singaporeans can adequately plan, save and invest for
The CPF plays a central role in addressing this challenge and has established a mandatory
retirement saving scheme for Singaporeans, bringing together employers and employees to
contribute up to 36% of income into the scheme for retirement, housing and healthcare purposes.
According to the analysis used in this paper, the average Singaporean in full time employment
today can expect an income replacement ratio (expected post retirement income vs. pre-retirement income) of around 68%. This is within the range recommended by the World Bank and comparable to those seen in OECD countries. However, some Singaporeans may aspire to a higher replacement ratio. This can be achieved through both increasing savings rates and/or targeting
higher rates of return on these savings.
Case study of Uncle8888's Replacement Income vs Average Singaporean of 68%
Yearly Household Expenses
Read? Historical Lowest Annual Household Expenses Was Bad For Health Or Life Threatening Environment!!!
Replacement Income : CPF, Investment Income and Mini freelance income (Ad hoc)
Average replacement income over 4 years = 66%
Average pre-retirement yearly household expenses since 2002 = 58%
Average post-retirement yearly household expenses over 4 years = 54%
Friday, 21 August 2020
9. "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don't work out."
10. "If you're lucky enough to have been rewarded in life to the degree that I have, there comes a point at which you have to decide whether to become a slave to your net worth by devoting the rest of your life to increasing it or to let what you've accumulated begin to serve you."
Right! Cashing out to serve to me i.e. 100% cash payouts from stock operation to Cash Reservoir.
Thursday, 20 August 2020
Uncle8888 has transited from Growth to Income stock operator since 2017.
Growth Investment Portfolio
Cash from stock operation were all re-invested to try to grow the investment portfolio from 2000 to 2016 i.e. 0% Cash payout as "dividend"!
Income Investment Portfolio
100% cash payouts as "dividends". Investment portfolio will have to survive on its own across future market cycles and daily market volatility.
From 2017 to 2020; the total "dividends" he has received is equal to 35% Capital Reduction exercise in his Investment portfolio.
Wednesday, 19 August 2020
Tuesday, 18 August 2020
Definitely it is NOT Panadols but no more Golden eggs!
Kill the old Golden geese?
Keep them as loving pets and let them die naturally. They deserved it after decades of laying Eggs.
Old Grandmother's Tale : We shouldn't eat old mother hens as their meat is very toxic! Now I know why old grandmother said this when she looked at old mother hen! Toxic???
Saturday, 15 August 2020
Survival rate is 70% at 5th year.
Cleared 10th year.
Now, cleared 15th year and add 1 to the number of cancer survivors statistics in Singapore.
Time on Earth is limited and can also pass faster before than we knew it! It is over!
Friday, 14 August 2020
End of H1 2020 Reporting Season. Harvesting for Raindrops into my Cash Reservoir should also be over.
End of H1 2020 Reporting season and harvesting for Raindrops into my Cash Reservoir should also be over too in 2020; unless there are thunder storms over the next few months. See how!
Looking forward how to harvest more Raindrops as dividends may be cut deeper in 2021. More pain ahead!
Calibrated Cash Flow in 2020 is about 9% ROC after deploying 32% of War Chest to make up those lost dividends from 2019 due to cut!
Monday, 10 August 2020
Read? CPFIS after 55. To close or NOT to close? (2)
Read? Uniquely Singapore Sources Of Passive Income For Koala/Panda Retail Investors Only
For CDP, it is quite straight forward under low interest rate environment and with more years to come under such low rate.
Most retail investors may not be able to tahan holding cash as war chest earning low yield; and are more likely to invest asap!
But for CPFIS, it is a different ball game of investing strategy.
2.5% compound interests is a decent return on capital protection and liquid asset after 55
Your war chest in CPFIS is earning 2.5% compound interests while waiting to fight the next battles or war!
The question to ask ourselves.
Are we so confident of our investing skills and investment return?
If yes, then CPF OA and SA after 55 doesn't exist any more as all money in OA and SA have been withdrawn!
Read? One Uncommon Act Of Kindness! (8)
Read? Something Behind Our Luck Factor And Chance In Randomness Environment Where We Have No Control (3)
Uncle8888 was the only one approaching the empty bus stop shelter and he saw .....
Quickly look around for Gotcha moment.
He opened the purse. Got few red packets, tissue paper and some money. No ID!
Jialiat! How to return to the owner?
Pick up coin or note can keep. Right?
Lost property like wallet etc. has to report to Police. Right?
BTW; Uncle8888 was free and has some spare time to spend. He also had strong feeling that owner could have hurried up to the bus and left the purse behind and might come back to look for it.
So Uncle8888 sat very close to purse to give an impression that purse is his and continued to surf his mobile to pass time.
Not long; two old ladies stopped in front of him and spoke in Chinese "My purse".
Uncle8888 told her he has waited for her to come back; and lucky she came or else he has to go to Police post to report lost and found item and create paperwork for Police as it is unlikely for Police to find the owner of the purse. LOL!
Bus came! We took the same bus! Ha ha!
Sunday, 9 August 2020
Saturday, 8 August 2020
The decision to close CPFIS after 55 can be based on dollar and cents in order to make financial sense.
Every counter held in your CPFIS account incurs $8.56 custodian fee per year so there is cost or saving involved to compute.
How to decide to close or not after 55?
Your size of CPFIS really matters!
Any money refund from your CPFIS will earn 2.5% interest p.a. Does annual interest earned far exceeded the total custodian fees?
Yes or no?
You need to do your own Maths! Bo pian!
What Uncle8888 has learnt from past crisis 1997/1998 AFC, Sep 11 WTC, SARS, GFC and COVID-19?
As full-time Employee; he feared the most i.e. losing his job especially when he was a single household income with five mouths to feed and three school going children.
How much expenses could he really cut during crisis?
To prepare and to survive over future crisis; he NOT only prepared emergency fund; but in fact he dare NOT injected any more cash into his investment portfolio as he always like to think that he has injected enough cash capital into his bank account dedicated for investing and his CPFIS as additional chest war.
Now, as retiree from full-time job without monthly salary and medical benefits; he knew the impact of cut in dividends in his investment portfolio facing Sequence risk during crisis time.
COVID-19 came in time to teach him good real life investing lesson learnt on the ground and to validate his investing strategies to move forward in that direction.
Sequence Risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will have a negative impact on the overall rate of return available to the investor. ... Sequence risk is also called sequence-of-returns risk.
For retirees, when Cash is King during crisis; then Cash Reservoir will be the Queen who is always there supporting the King.
War Chest as calibrating tool to sustain cash flow across market and economics cycles for retirees
It is time when Cash is King came to ease the pain of a retiree and no more kpkb Cash is rotting!
Thursday, 6 August 2020
Lim Chee Onn, Executive Chairman, Keppel Corporation Ltd, Singapore, 2000 to 2008
Mr Lim graduated with First Class Honours in Naval Architecture from Glasgow
A naval architect specializes in every facet of maritime activities such as dredging, shipment and transportation, offshore drilling etc. This is the field that caters to discipline of the shipping industry right from the research and development, designing, building and repairing of all above-mentioned machines. The naval architect is not only responsible for the development aspect, but also for the economic feasibility, values and safety of the marine vessels and related units.
Mr Choo Chiau Beng was Chief Executive Officer of Keppel Corporation from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Before that, he was CEO of Keppel FELS from 1983 to 2008 and Chairman & CEO of Keppel Offshore & Marine from 2002 to 2008. He was Executive Director of Keppel Corporation since 1983 and Senior Executive Director since 2005. Upon his retirement on 1 January 2014, Mr Choo was appointed Senior Advisor to the Board of Keppel Corporation until 31 December 2015. He was the Chairman of M1 Limited from 2015 till 2017.
Past two CEOs have maritime experience and expertise; but current CEO is NOT from marine background!
Wednesday, 5 August 2020
Read? 3 Reasons Why Keppel Corp is Unsuitable as a Dividend Stock
Patchy track record of dividend payments
A hallmark of a good dividend stock is the consistency of dividend payments.
Unfortunately, Keppel Corporation’s dividend history has been patchy as the conglomerate was badly impacted by the oil and gas bust back in 2014.
Wah. Chun bo???
That why long-term Investing is always personal investing. It is always about you and your long-term annualized return!
One man's investing return is another man's poison!
All investment returns are judged on hindsight after Point X
Ask those senior citizens who are still holding Keppel Corp.
Read? Keppel Corporation Retail Shareholders' Day.
Too bad. This year won't be any on site Keppel Corp Retail Shareholders' Day to check out.
Are Patchy track record of dividend payments necessary BAD?
So bad meh?
7 years of harvest and followed by 7 years of famine!
Tuesday, 4 August 2020
Read? Grab announces new investment, consumer loan products as part of financial services drive
The strategy will also see the group launch "buy-now-pay-later" payment plans for select e-commerce websites and a third-party loan platform to allow users to obtain consumer loans.
Hmm .. sounds like US Subprime in the making under the name of fintech financing this time i.e. lending to those who can't under current normal banking services.
Sunday, 2 August 2020
Bitcoin and Ethereum crash by more than 12% in 6 minutes as more than $1B of positions gets liquidated
About $1.1 billion worth of futures positions of more than 70,000 traders were liquidated across all exchanges, according to market data site Bybt. Nearly $400 million was liquidated on each OKEx and Huobi; followed by BitMEX ($164M) and Binance ($86M).
Saturday, 1 August 2020
Read? Kep Corp : Bought @ $5.36 for Round 97
Read? Temasek on Keppel MAC Pre condition
It is clear-cut that MAC Pre condition is NOT met and Temasek should have walked away on Monday.
Why wait up to 31 Aug to decide?
Likely $7.35 will NOT hold and Temasek needs time to revise $7.35 downward. That new number has to be juicy enough for minority shareholders to sell to reach 51% under current depressed stock price.