As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Sunday, 30 August 2020

COVID-19 may have shown us our own basic household income for living


One positive on COVID-19 is .... we may now know what is our own basic household income for living without overseas vacations and also providing clue to the amount of investment income that is needed to supplement CPF Life above our own basic living in Singapore.














Saturday, 29 August 2020

Investment , Tech Stocks, Medical Stocks FOMO and CPF Top, OA to SA Transfer FOMO



What is FOMO?

Fear of missing out is a social anxiety stemmed from the belief that others might be having fun while the person experiencing the anxiety is not present. It is characterized by a desire to stay continually connected with what others are doing. Wikipedia

FOMO

/ˈfəʊməʊ/

Learn to pronounce

noun INFORMAL

anxiety that an exciting or interesting event may currently be happening elsewhere, often aroused by posts seen on social media.

"I realized I was a lifelong sufferer of FOMO"


How to overcome investment FOMO

Hmm .. so investment FOMO is really bad???

Why nobody talks about How to overcome CPF FOMO?

CPF Top Up or CPF OA transfer to SA to become 1M65 FOMO in your 20s or 30s is really good!

CPF FOMO is okay but investment FOMO is not okay? Not biased opinion?

LOL!








Investor bet on Hang Seng Tech ETF goes south


Walau! Anything can happen in the market! FOMO!

Read? Investor bet on Hang Seng Tech ETF goes south

CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (3033), Hong Kong’s first exchange-traded fund that tracks the  tech index, gained by 1.5 percent on debut to HK$7.615 per unit, while a group of investors lost 60 percent buying the units at HK$20.

The ETF once surged by 1.67 times in the pre-opening session from its offer price of HK$7.5 per unit.

The group of retail investors made their offer on Valuable Capital’s platform under mainland Sina Corporation, local media reported.

The Hang Seng Tech Index hit a record high of 7,745 points before paring the gains to close at 7,580 points today.

A spokesman from CSOP Asset Management denied that there was no mispricing of the ETF and the net asset value of the ETF has not changed a lot, but there could be significant differences between the price and the net asset value in a short period before the market opened, due to the difference between demand and supply during the bidding session.

The investment house reminded investors to pay attention to price fluctuations of newly-listed securities and make investment decisions based on the net asset value. The ETF recorded a turnover of HK$3.05 billion.


Big losses on Day 1

Uncle8888's friend went in to join the Tech Bloom ...










Large volume change hand during the falling off the cliff!




Thursday, 27 August 2020

BTO as investment asset class. 92% ROC i.e. close to 2 baggers profits over 12 years

Read? Punggol HDB loft unit sold for S$900,000 to couple who viewed it only once

A HDB loft at Punggol Sapphire estate was recently sold for S$900,000.

The previous owner had purchased the flat directly from HDB for S$468,000 in May 2008





Wednesday, 26 August 2020

Time in the Market > Timing the Market???


Someone in BIGS World FB asked this :

 "It's often said that time in the market > timing market. Are there concrete studies done on this & what were the returns assumption on the non-invested capital?"

But, received no response yet!

Read? Is Time in the Market and Timing the Market mutually Exclusive??? (2)

Hmm .. okay!

No concrete studies ! Just data points of two to check on curiosity of favorite quote at personal level.

 Time in the market  or Timing the market?

Uncle8888's two recently traded rounds for DBS and SGX

DBS

1. Time in Market i.e. Buy and Hold for Panadols/Golden Eggs

Hold for 17 years since SARS in 2003. TSR over 17 years is 355%




2 Timing the Market

After Round 3, TSR is 344%. Buy and hold win at the current moment!




SGX

1. Time in Market i.e. Buy and Hold for Panadols/Golden Eggs

If still holding SGX, TSR over 5 years is 45%



2 Timing the Market

The initial position in SGX sold at $7.46 was split into 2 Rounds for buying back as follows

TSR for Round 5 and 6 is not much different at 41% and 46%  between Time in the market and Timing the market






Personal observation over this quote : Time in the Market or Timing the Market

It is never about the Method and which one is superior!

It will always be the person behind executing the 3Ms - Method, Mind and Money Management that matters most!





 

Monday, 24 August 2020

Return On Human Capital vs Return on Financial Assets???


Read? Rolf’s Salary And Income Report Analysis – 2004 To C2020

Uncle8888 adds on one more data point to the above blog post!

Read? Beating Year on Year Inflation - Earned Income or Investment Income???

Read? I Am Still Entitled To Official Retirement Award @ 62 After Two Years Of Voluntary Early Retirement @ 60 in Sep 2016

Seriously What Are You Going To Do??? (2)

Invest on our human asset or human capital to generate multibagger return!

Hmm .. Uncle8888 decided to voluntary early retire@60 at his highest annual income after tax ever. Alamak! What a waste!


SMOL: Quitting when we are ahead is not the same as quitting. LOL!


Which one is easier?

Focus on your earned income or investment income?

Uncle8888's earned income after tax from 1985 to 2015.

His earned income has beaten the sea of inflation.

His earned income after tax was the highest before quitting the Rat Race and that is 4x the lowest income in 1986.




Saturday, 22 August 2020

Retiring in Comfort in Singapore - Replacement Income


Read? Retiring in Comfort - An SGX and Oliver Wyman paper on retirement savings

Singaporeans face a retirement challenge – how to ensure a desirable lifestyle post retirement
without overreliance on external sources. Historically, many retired Singaporeans have relied on
their children as the main source of financial support. However, shifting demographics due to
increases in life expectancy and low birth rates put limitations on the extent to which this model is
sustainable. It is therefore paramount that Singaporeans can adequately plan, save and invest for
retirement.

The CPF plays a central role in addressing this challenge and has established a mandatory
retirement saving scheme for Singaporeans, bringing together employers and employees to
contribute up to 36% of income into the scheme for retirement, housing and healthcare purposes.

According to the analysis used in this paper, the average Singaporean in full time employment
today can expect an income replacement ratio (expected post retirement income vs. pre-retirement income) of around 68%. This is within the range recommended by the World Bank and comparable to those seen in OECD countries. However, some Singaporeans may aspire to a higher replacement ratio. This can be achieved through both increasing savings rates and/or targeting
higher rates of return on these savings.

Case study of Uncle8888's Replacement Income vs Average Singaporean of 68%

Yearly Household Expenses

Read? Historical Lowest Annual Household Expenses Was Bad For Health Or Life Threatening Environment!!!


Replacement Income : CPF, Investment Income and Mini freelance income (Ad hoc)

Average replacement income over 4 years = 66%

Average pre-retirement yearly household expenses since 2002 = 58%

Average post-retirement yearly household expenses over 4 years = 54%









Friday, 21 August 2020

2 Investing Tips From Peter Lynch That I like Best And Lucky To Be Able To Follow Them!

Read?  Why do we often make fair but not excellent investment decisions


9. "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don't work out."


10. "If you're lucky enough to have been rewarded in life to the degree that I have, there comes a point at which you have to decide whether to become a slave to your net worth by devoting the rest of your life to increasing it or to let what you've accumulated begin to serve you."


Right!  Cashing out to serve to me i.e. 100% cash payouts from stock operation to Cash Reservoir. 

Read? From Growth To Income Stock Operator in SGX




Thursday, 20 August 2020

From Growth To Income Stock Operator in SGX


Uncle8888 has transited from Growth to Income stock operator since 2017.

Growth Investment Portfolio

Cash from stock operation were all re-invested to try to grow the investment portfolio from 2000 to 2016 i.e. 0% Cash payout as "dividend"!

Income Investment Portfolio

100% cash payouts as "dividends". Investment portfolio will have to survive on its own across future market cycles and daily market volatility. 

From 2017 to 2020; the total "dividends" he has received is equal to 35% Capital Reduction exercise in his Investment portfolio. 





Wednesday, 19 August 2020

Romantic Squirrel

 

Tuesday, 18 August 2020

When Golden Geese didn't lay Golden Eggs Anymore. How???

Read?  Our Stock Dividends Are Either Panadols Or Eggs

Definitely it is NOT Panadols but no more Golden eggs!

Kill the old Golden geese?

or 

Keep them as loving pets and let them die naturally. They deserved it after decades of laying Eggs. 

Wrong?

Old Grandmother's Tale : We shouldn't eat old mother hens as their meat is very toxic! Now I know why old grandmother said this when she looked at old mother hen! Toxic???








Saturday, 15 August 2020

15th Year Anniversary


Read?  Tasteless For So Many Months .....

Survival rate is 70% at 5th year.

Cleared 10th year.

Now, cleared 15th year and add 1 to the number of cancer survivors statistics in Singapore.

Time on Earth is limited and can also pass faster before than we knew it! It is over!






Friday, 14 August 2020

End of H1 2020 Reporting Season. Harvesting for Raindrops into my Cash Reservoir should also be over.

 End of H1 2020 Reporting season and harvesting for Raindrops into my Cash Reservoir should also be over too in 2020; unless there are thunder storms over the next few months. See how!

Looking forward how to harvest more Raindrops as dividends may be cut deeper in 2021. More pain ahead!

Read? Real Life Lessons Learnt During Market And Economics Crisis

Calibrated Cash Flow in 2020 is about 9% ROC after deploying 32% of War Chest to make up those lost dividends from 2019 due to cut!









Monday, 10 August 2020

CPFIS after 55. To close or NOT to close? (3)


Read? CPFIS after 55. To close or NOT to close? (2)

Read? Uniquely Singapore Sources Of Passive Income For Koala/Panda Retail Investors Only

For CDP,  it is quite straight forward under low interest rate environment and with more years to come under such low rate. 

Most retail investors may not be able to tahan holding cash as war chest earning low yield; and are more likely to invest asap!

But for CPFIS, it is a different ball game of investing strategy. 

2.5% compound interests is a decent return on capital protection and liquid asset after 55

Your war chest in CPFIS is earning 2.5% compound interests while waiting to fight the next battles or war!

The question to ask ourselves. 

Are we so confident of our investing skills and investment return?

If yes, then CPF OA and SA after 55 doesn't exist any more as all money in OA and SA have been withdrawn!




Kep Corp : How bad will be the drop tmr?


Kyanite will Not Proceed with Partial Offer for Keppel Corporation Limited

SML right issues couldn't got through???





One Uncommon Act Of Kindness! (9)


Read? One Uncommon Act Of Kindness! (8)

Read? Something Behind Our Luck Factor And Chance In Randomness Environment Where We Have No Control (3)


Uncle8888 was the only one approaching the empty bus stop shelter and he saw .....























Gotcha???

Quickly look around for Gotcha moment. 

Nobody leh!

He opened the purse. Got few red packets, tissue paper and some money. No ID!

Jialiat! How to return to the owner?

Pick up coin or note can keep. Right?

Lost property like wallet etc. has to report to Police. Right?

BTW; Uncle8888 was free and has some spare time to spend. He also had strong feeling that owner could have hurried up to the bus and left the purse behind and might come back to look for it.

So Uncle8888 sat very close to purse to give an impression that purse is his and continued to surf his mobile to pass time.

Not long; two old ladies stopped in front of him and spoke in Chinese "My purse".

Uncle8888 told her he has waited for her to come back; and lucky she came or else he has to go to Police post to report lost and found item and create paperwork for Police as it is unlikely for Police to find the owner of the purse. LOL!

Bus came! We took the same bus! Ha ha!

















Sunday, 9 August 2020

COVID-19 - Another Lesson Learnt- My Ringgit Is Rotting at Zero Rate

Alamak! Uncle8888 has NEVER expected not to spend his Ringgit cash reservoir.  

He likes to build up more Ringgit cash reservoir when Ringgit exchange hits RM 3.05 or more. Good rate mah!

But; not this time! LOL!

Got Ringgit also can't spend! Sianz!

No curry fish head. No RM 2 shopping at Kota Tinggi

No Banana cake, Otah and Tau Sa buns at Joo Seng Bakery. 

LOL!


Saturday, 8 August 2020

CPFIS after 55. To close or NOT to close? (2)

Read?  CPFIS after 55. To close or NOT to close?


The decision to close CPFIS after 55 can be based on dollar and cents in order to make financial sense.

Every counter held in your  CPFIS account incurs $8.56 custodian fee per year so there is cost or saving involved to compute.

How to decide to close or not after 55?

Your size of CPFIS really matters!

Any money refund from your CPFIS will earn 2.5% interest p.a. Does annual interest earned far exceeded the total custodian fees?

Yes or no?

You need to do your own Maths! Bo pian!














Real Life Lessons Learnt During Market And Economics Crisis

 

What Uncle8888 has learnt from past crisis 1997/1998 AFC, Sep 11 WTC, SARS, GFC and COVID-19?

As full-time Employee; he feared the most i.e. losing his job especially when he was a single household income with five mouths to feed and three school going children. 

How much expenses could he really cut during crisis?

To prepare and to survive over future crisis; he NOT only prepared emergency fund; but in fact he dare NOT injected any more cash into his investment portfolio as he always like to think that he has injected enough cash capital into his bank account dedicated for investing and his CPFIS as additional chest war.

Now, as retiree from full-time job without monthly salary and medical benefits; he knew the impact of cut in dividends in his investment portfolio facing Sequence risk during crisis time.  

COVID-19 came in time to teach him good real life investing lesson learnt on the ground and to validate his investing strategies to move forward in that direction.

Sequence Risk

Sequence Risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will have a negative impact on the overall rate of return available to the investor. ... Sequence risk is also called sequence-of-returns risk.

For retirees, when Cash is King during crisis; then Cash Reservoir will be the Queen who is always there supporting the King.

War Chest as calibrating tool to sustain cash flow across market and economics cycles for retirees

Read? Cut In Dividends In 2020 - Painful Experience for retirees

It is time when Cash is King came to ease the pain of a retiree and no more kpkb Cash is rotting!







Banks Cut Dividends And Front Loaded Q2 For More Provisions

 

Thursday, 6 August 2020

Fu Yu - One small Baby Step Up

Read? Fu Yu



Keppel Corp Is Always Seen As Smelly And Oily Stock By Some Investment Writers. Why leh???



Lim Chee Onn, Executive Chairman, Keppel Corporation Ltd, Singapore, 2000 to 2008

Mr Lim graduated with First Class Honours in Naval Architecture from Glasgow
University

A naval architect specializes in every facet of maritime activities such as dredging, shipment and transportation, offshore drilling etc. This is the field that caters to discipline of the shipping industry right from the research and development, designing, building and repairing of all above-mentioned machines. The naval architect is not only responsible for the development aspect, but also for the economic feasibility, values and safety of the marine vessels and related units.


Mr Choo Chiau Beng was Chief Executive Officer of Keppel Corporation from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Before that, he was CEO of Keppel FELS from 1983 to 2008 and Chairman & CEO of Keppel Offshore & Marine from 2002 to 2008. He was Executive Director of Keppel Corporation since 1983 and Senior Executive Director since 2005. Upon his retirement on 1 January 2014, Mr Choo was appointed Senior Advisor to the Board of Keppel Corporation until 31 December 2015. He was the Chairman of M1 Limited from 2015 till 2017.

Past two CEOs have maritime experience and expertise; but current CEO is NOT from marine background! 

Mr Loh has over 25 years of experience in real estate investing and fund
management spanning the USA, Europe and Asia. He joined the Keppel Group in
2002 and founded Alpha Investment Partners Ltd. Under his charge as Managing
Director, he grew its Asset under Management to over S$12 billion today. Prior to
this, he was the Managing Director at Prudential Investment Inc leading its Asian
real estate fund management business and overseeing all investment and asset
management for the real estate funds managed out of Asia.

He began his career with the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation
(GIC), where he held key appointments in its San Francisco office and was head
of the European real estate group in London before returning to Singapore to head
the Asian real estate group. 

How did the Board or Temasek saying it out on the future of Keppel as smelly and oily stock with appointment this CEO?

Wednesday, 5 August 2020

Keppel Corp is Unsuitable as a Dividend Stock??? For whom?


Read? 3 Reasons Why Keppel Corp is Unsuitable as a Dividend Stock


Patchy track record of dividend payments

A hallmark of a good dividend stock is the consistency of dividend payments.

Unfortunately, Keppel Corporation’s dividend history has been patchy as the conglomerate was badly impacted by the oil and gas bust back in 2014.


Wah. Chun bo???

That why long-term Investing is always personal investing. It is always about you and your long-term annualized return! 

One man's investing return is another man's poison!

All investment returns are judged on hindsight after Point X

Ask those senior citizens who are still holding Keppel Corp.

Read? Keppel Corporation Retail Shareholders' Day.

Too bad. This year won't be any on site Keppel Corp Retail Shareholders' Day to check out.

Are Patchy track record of dividend payments necessary BAD?

So bad meh?

7 years of harvest and followed by 7 years of famine!
















Tuesday, 4 August 2020

Fintech Digital Banking is a Threat to local Big Three banks???


Read? Grab announces new investment, consumer loan products as part of financial services drive

The strategy will also see the group launch "buy-now-pay-later" payment plans for select e-commerce websites and a third-party loan platform to allow users to obtain consumer loans. 


Hmm .. sounds like US Subprime in the making under the name of fintech financing this time i.e. lending to those who can't under current normal banking services.


SGX : Retails vs BBs


BBs don't always win!

Quarterly dose of $0.08 Panadol for retails to ease heartache.




Sunday, 2 August 2020

Bitcoin and Ethereum crash by more than 12% in 6 minutes as more than $1B of positions gets liquidated

Read? Bitcoin and Ethereum crash by more than 12% in 6 minutes as more than $1B of positions gets liquidated

Walan!

About $1.1 billion worth of futures positions of more than 70,000 traders were liquidated across all exchanges, according to market data site Bybt. Nearly $400 million was liquidated on each OKEx and Huobi; followed by BitMEX ($164M) and Binance ($86M).


Saturday, 1 August 2020

50-50 Bet On Temasek Not Walking Away


Read? Kep Corp : Bought @ $5.36 for Round 97

Read? Temasek on Keppel MAC Pre condition


It is clear-cut  that MAC Pre condition is NOT met and Temasek should have walked away on Monday.

Why wait up to 31 Aug to decide?

Likely $7.35 will NOT hold and Temasek needs time to revise $7.35 downward. That new number has to be juicy enough for minority shareholders to sell to reach 51% under current depressed stock price.








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