Lucky Or Unlucky When You First Get Started Investing Over Market Cycles

Read?  How Much Luck in Investing Success? My Experience in 2008/09

Hmm ... like that then Uncle8888 was unlucky to read that book Rich Dad. Poor Dad at the wrong time and triggered him to seriously started his journey to Get Out of Rat Race when STI was near its high at 2583 and then crashed down to 1198.

He was lucky or unlucky? Not sure but he did learn something very important and practically true!

Do you recall any other successful retail investors telling you this?


In investing, your account size really matters; but it takes time for you to grow your account size through saving from your earned income.


How often you hear this : Start investing when you are young and let the magic of compounding works for you!


Read? Your Account Size Really Matters! (2)

Investment Portfolio Benchmarking Among The World's Well Known Investors - Updated on Warren Buffet for 2016

Read? Investment Portfolio Benchmarking Among The World's Well Known Investors - Updated on Warren Buffet for 2015

How to be like Warren Buffet?

Steady, Steady. Pom Pi Pi.

19.0% CAGR over 52 years!

Buffett: 'Widespread Fear Is Your Friend as an Investor'

25 Feb 2017 : Warren Buffett’s Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders

Some years, the gains in underlying earning power we achieve will be minor; very occasionally, the cash register will ring loud. Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, dark
clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do.


Many companies, of course, will fall behind, and some will fail. Winnowing of that sort is a product of market dynamism. Moreover, the years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines – even panics – that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur – not me, not Charlie, not economists, not the media. Meg McConnell of the New York Fed aptly described the reality of panics: “We spend a lot of time looking for systemic risk; in truth, however, it tends to find us.”

During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well.



A few, however – these are serious blunders I made in my job of capital allocation – produce very poor returns. In most cases, I was wrong when I originally sized up the economic characteristics of these companies or the industries in which they operate, and we are now paying the price for my misjudgments. In a couple of instances, I stumbled in assessing either the fidelity or ability of incumbent managers or ones I later put in place. I will commit more errors; you can count on that. Fortunately, Charlie – never bashful – is around to say “no” to my worst ideas.

Do You Know What Is Market Cycle and Sector Cycle??? (2)

Read? Do You Know What Is Market Cycle and Sector Cycle???

Read? No Cut Losses & Multi-baggers For Long Time (2)


Cut losses fast and live to fight another day!

It could be true for trading for a living as they depend on cash flow to put food on the table. But; for retail investors who put food on the table from their earned income ; it is a different story!

Depending on who you ask?

Cut losses fast and live to fight ANOTHER day! 

For traders, they have to fight every other day and definitely have to fight another day; otherwise they will starve!

But; for retail investors over market cycles and sector; how true is cutting losses into holding MORE cash when you have war chest?

Do you have to live and fight another day? or every other day?

It is more likely when retail investors panic and cut losses into holding MORE CASH; they are more likely to stay away from the market for a long time. 

Once we cut losses into realized losses; it is very hard to recover by holding cash. We can't never recover from holding cash. The cash has to be invested again to recover from losses.

But; what Uncle8888 has observed so far that many retail investors after cut losses; they will stay away from the market far too long to recover.

Two Bank Accounts? No, You may need Four! - (5)

Read? Retirement Income for Life??? (14) - How much is enough for retirement?

If you are NOT into detailed household expenses tracking in view of controlling and tightening expenses; you may like to review Uncle8888's method of tracking household expenses for the purpose of knowing the Number and don't bother with its details to control expenses. It is just few minutes effort every moth to populate the Excel worksheet with the latest monthly number.

One dedicated bank account for all household expenses and to be funded by other sources of income e.g. salary

Since Uncle8888 has retired without earned income; this bank account is fully funded by dividends and trading P/L from investment portfolio, CPF and FD interests. 2017 has been fully funded. In Dec 2017; this bank account will be refilled by CPF interests, dividends and trading in 2017 for 2018.

The big idea here is to spend what has been earned and not to spend future money that is not earned!

Read? No More Year End Bonus!!!

With one dedicated bank account for household expenses; whenever he looked at the account balance; he won't feel rich enough to overspend or feel that poor to under spend. He will naturally adjust and adapt to the remaining account balance to ensure that he doesn't spend until the account drop below the minimum sum and get charged by the bank. So far; it works naturally well for him for decades!

When Are You Going Into Trading Like Many Other Retirees???

During afternoon's lunch with one ex-colleague; she asked when is Uncle8888 going into trading like many other retirees whom she knows.

Actually; it is quite true that many retirees some time after their retirement may go into day trading as either part-time or pastime job to kill off bulk of their abundant time or to put it nicely to perfect their trading craft.

Do You Know What Is Market Cycle and Sector Cycle???

Real Person. Real Portfolio

From deep pain in the heart over large losses with exposure to O&G sector; but now feeling much better after some trimming down with realized profits.


Uncle

Market recovery and my portfolio also doing fine

Thank for your guidance. After add in the dividend and some of realise profit. I actually got earn.

Sembcorp Ind : 334% ROC Just Based On Total Dividends Received And Still Counting!!!

Read? Kep Corp : 478% ROC And Still Counting!!!

For yield investing; it is about our Entry Price!

Even with full year 2016 dividend cut to $0.08. It is still decent 10.9%!

Less Analyzing. More Investing - CW8888

A few minutes encounter with an "unknown" face on something unrelated to investing matter. So it is quite unexpected. LOL!

Someone : Uncle, can I ask you something?

Uncle8888 : OK

Someone : I don't understand your Less Analyzing. More Investing.

Uncle8888 : Wah! To explain, we need one whole session on it. :-) Now; it is not the right time. Simply, it is .... blah blah!

Someone : Now, can I still invest?

Uncle8888 : You got see my STI chart?

Someone : Uncle's chart very cheem! I don't get it!

Uncle8888: You can go and schedule kopi session. Bring along pen and papers!

Someone: Ya Kun?

LOL!


Less Analyzing. More Investing - CW8888

It is simple four words; but Uncle8888 didn't anyhow pluck it from the sky. 

To understand why he said it? 

It is after more than a decade in the stock market; then he said it

A few pieces of paper may be not enough. LOL!

It is about 3M's - Method. Mind and Money Management

A4 Clear Holders To Give Away

Email Uncle8888 if you want to take them!

Roaming The Streets Of Singapore With BMW (Bus, MRT, and Walk)

Read? Two Months After Not Doing Anything To Increase GDP As Jobless Man! (2)


With Uncle8888's eyes wide open with an unhurried mind; what he actually saw and got him thinking and thinking ...

What is physically external to our body; we can do something preventive to at least slow down the weakness; but what is internal in our body; we can't really do much. Even with stronger financial resources; it doesn't really help.

Our organ and tissues inside our body. Our our mind - Dementia!!!

Scary thought!

Read?  One Uncommon Act Of Kindness!

Now, Uncle8888 is paying back this act of kindness by watching out to help especially when old folks seen lost at MRT transfer station.

True Story!

This old man with a piece of SGH hospital bill seen lost at Bishan station and asking around how to get to SGH to see doctor so Uncle8888 told him how to get to Outram station via NE line and asked him to follow as Uncle8888 was transferring from NS to NE line to Hougang.

But; along the way; this old man asked him for $2 to drink coffee. Immediately; Uncle8888's Red Flag raised - people who asked for direction will not ask for money. Right?

Uncle8888 told him: I also No Money! :-(

Median household income from work in Singapore up 2.6% in real terms in 2016

Read? Median household income from work in Singapore up 2.6% in real terms in 2016

THE median household income from work among resident employed households in Singapore rose to S$8,846 in 2016 from S$8,666 in 2015, up 2.6 per cent in real terms, Singapore's Department of Statistics (DOS) said on Thursday.

This is a drop from the 4.9 per cent increase in real median household income from work in 2015, said DOS's latest paper, Key Household Income Trends, 2016.

After factoring in household size, the median monthly household income from work per household member rose 3.8 per cent in real terms, lower than l2015's 5.4 per cent growth in real terms.

While households experienced real growth in average household income from work per household member in 2016, the growth has slowed down across the board.

In 2016, the top 10 per cent of households saw the slowest growth with a marginal 0.2 per cent real growth in average household income from work per household member, while it grew 7.2 per cent in 2015.

The bottom 10 per cent of households saw a growth of 1.4 per cent in 2016, when the average household income from work per household member grew 10.7 per cent in real terms in 2015, attributable to the shrinking household size and thus fewer working persons per household, said DOS.

The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, fell to 0.458 in 2016 from 0.463 in 2015. After taking into account the redistributive effect of government transfers, the Gini coefficient fell to 0.402 in 2016 from 0.409 in 2015.

Blue Chip DBS Is Yield Play For Those Who Bought At The Right Time!

Read? Kep Corp : 478% ROC And Still Counting!!!


For yield investing; it is about our Entry Price!

Blue chips can also be yield play for some retail.

DBS has maintained $0.60 dividend for 2016 and that translated to 116% Return on initial investment cost just on total dividends received since 2003 and still counting!

You may see the reason why Uncle8888 has strong view on market timing!

Once we get it right we can relax for long long time! That is long term investing for cash flow.

Now, waiting for Sembcorp Ind FY 16 result and FY 16 H2 dividend

Most Full-Time Employees Want To Retire

The message is MOST!!!

Few employees can reach high level position in the corporate ladder that they will find it so purposeful and empowering not to retire as they feel that they are still contributing much; but most employees from the lower level won't feel the same. 

Why would they don't want to retire earlier when they have enough financial resources not to carry on.

See who you ask!

Higher level or lower level employees!

More Bloggers Are Promoting Or Endorsing!!!

Recently, Uncle8888 has been reading through some blog posts convincingly and then towards the end section then he realized that the true message sent is Reading is not enough. You have to attend courses to actually learn the right process of investing. It is hard to be DIY retail investors hor!

With such an ending; Uncle8888 has doubt on what he has read earlier. Real or not?


Funny is when they were shouting the message last time: I can. You can! 

No more arh?

You need mentors! *sigh*

Is Mr. STI Making Many Of Us Feeling Good??? (2)

Read? Is Mr. STI Making Many Of Us Feeling Good???


CW,

I agree and like your chart. But you had to include the word "daily" in the chart heading when its a multi-year chart ;)

In statistics, we filter out the "noise" by having moving averages :)

SMOL win liao!

Without "noise" by having 365 Trading days moving averages; what we can know about long-term performance over daily market volatility.

Income Investing For Cash Flow???

It is quite common that Uncle8888 heard from retail investors when talking about investing ..


"I invest in S-REITs for income!"

Hmm ..

Does it really matter the cash flow from our ASSETS is Black Cat or White Cat?


As retiree, Uncle8888's cash flow come from dividends, interests, trading, and when necessary some SMALL asset draw-down from those interests generating assets to supplement any short fall in annual cash flow. 

Anyway; these interest generating assets don't produce higher return so any small draw-down to this asset base is not significant and it is not going to be alarming or damaging to the gross cash flow.

In investing; it does matter when we are right we want to win bigger to over-ride and stay longer!

This is long-term investing strategy!

Patience and discipline with our eyes always watching the Ball!

Is Mr. STI Making Many Of Us Feeling Good???

Hmm .. Don't bother with two decimal places for XIRR. It is no different from the Price Tag on Good showing $X.99!

Are Price Tag like $X.99 going to disappear when someone poking that 1 cts lesser is how much cheaper?

Same. Same!

Don't worry!

Keep posting that two decimal point like price tag of $X.99. LOL!

SGX

The Risk of CPF Accrued Interest So Scary Meh???

Not when our housing loan is for our residential home till our grave!

Because a dead body doesn't need to fund RA anymore!

Many of us don't have to bother about CPF Accrued Interest as this is non-event!


Read? Is CPF Accrued Interest for our housing loan increasing and we have to pay back one day when we sell our house?

Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (7)

Read? Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (6)


Why there are still ACTIVE financial and investment bloggers?

Where were those who have disappeared after GFC?

Winners continue to talk loud!

Losers shut up and stay away!

That is why we only hear and read about successful investing.

The Matrix of Savers and Investors

Planning For Retirement Early Voluntarily OR Locking Up For Retirement Way Ahead Of Our Times Under Incentives???

How many folks seriously know the difference?


Voluntarily Or Incentives

Same but different!

The difference is clearly when it is shared on paper and pen with illustrations!

Reading may be harder to visualize something that is decades away!

Can You Beat STI ETF DCA Passive Investing???

This young ex-colleague with small capital has taken the common investing advice to start investing early via STI ETF monthly DCA through our local bank Invest-Saver account. 

A few bloggers even suggested for those who have smaller capital they can start investing early through this way.

He started on 23 Mar 2015 when the stock price STI ETF closed at $3.42.

CW8888: Who says market timing is not important! You listen to whom?


This young investor has been happily doing this monthly DCA passive investing until he has met Uncle8888 for a few investing lessons and began to open his eyes and get his hand dirty doing his own mini version of STI stocks.

Passive or active? There is No free lunch! Why do you want to pay for someone's lunch? Not one; it could be a dozen of lunches. Total expense ratio for this STI ETF fund is 0.42%! 

Finally; after close to two years of passive investing; he sold all his Nikko STI ETF stocks on 31 Jan 2017 and he will now fully focus on his own mini STI portfolio.

After many months has passed; finally; he has validated Uncle8888's investing lessons that he can make more managing the fund himself and decided to give Uncle8888 lunch treat.

LOL!

DBS

Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (6)

Read? Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (5)

So far if it not wrong; only two bloggers said loud and clear that NOT everybody need to become retail investors to beat inflation. 

Good savers who are risk averse and don't want to ride the emotion of losses or even paper losses can choose not to invest.

Good savers can beat inflation by having more than enough assets for draw-down to last their lifetime.


Read? He Has Retired At 58!

His ex-boss told Uncle8888 that he doesn't invest in stock market anymore as he can't afford to lose anymore!

Not Just Financial Independence. Build Sustainable Retirement Income For Life!!!

Two key question posed to Uncle8888 during by younger and older relatives during this CNY:


(1) How to pass your time?

(2) Is your retirement life sustainable over next few decades?


Uncle8888 over the past one decade has been thinking about it. It is not just about reaching the edge of Financial Independence and declaring freedom. 

There is still some serious works to be completed to build sustainable retirement income for life model. It may not be wise to build this model based on too much leverage as leverage is always one double edge sword. As retiree depending on tight cash flow, he has to seriously weigh on cash-back model like S-REITs. No money back!