I believe SML has been in the prolong oversold. For the past months, there is no indication of any further orders cancelling. Quite quiet in term of bad news and that could mean relatively good news. And with crude staying above USD50, probably the uptrend could be sustainable. Cheers!. No deal.
One honest Guru said that (still many gurus are not telling us much about their losses in shorting the market), he gave back huge bulk of his profits built thus far from the last plunge.
The only Gurus that never lose anything are those who no longer trade; but, just continue to sell and advise Magic Stone.
I always like to remind myself on this ...
Stock picking is part science, part art, part luck, part intuition, and always uncertain - "not precisely knowing."
There is no Holy Grail and Magic Stone on stock picking and will NEVER be as everybody has enough money to buy Magic Stone (but Sharks and Lions have plenty of automated computer aided Magic Stones), and once many people have the Magic Stone, it is not going to be effective as the Sharks and Lions are at the top of food chain will finally eat up those below the food chain such as sardines and zebras; and that is Law of the Jungle and Law of the Sea.
So those who does not know the skills of shorting, are you really worse off???? Think about it.
I think I am better off to be an American cockroach in active investing. Eat when there is "food" to be found, and can survive without "water" for 1 month and without "food" for 3 months. Have strong stomach to go empty and high level of pain threshold will help me through for years to come.
Or alternatively, think like property investors (not flippers) who will never see any unrealized losses throughout their holding period.
or like my late father-in-law he never, ever lost anything in his leftover share holding, and in fact his sons made some nice profit as they got these shares FOC from his will.
Since STI has recovered 20.7% from its low on 9 Mar 09 at 1,457 , it is technically just at the gate of the BULL market. Let more bullies come and push the herd in. Is the rise mainly due to end of quarter Window Dressing? We shall see after next week.
One thing is that in forums we heard many shortlists Bear Paws were BBQ yesterday and some began to join the Bull camp.
Is the last low on 9 Mar 09 at 1,457 the bottom or temporary bottom? How STI ends this week will provide the important clue? So watch out, and also end of Quarter window dressing too? Very exciting week liao.
Hope to gather more feathers for the pillow soon ...
Round 7: ROC 5.7%, 10 day, B 1.02 S 1.09
Round 6: ROC 3.8%, 1 day, B 1.01 S 1.06 Round 5: ROC 12%, 27 days, B 0.965 S 1.08, (2nd Half) Round 4: ROC 14%, 8 days, B 0.965 S 1.11, (1st Half) Round 3: ROC 7.1%, 8 days, B 0.830 S 0.895 Round 2: ROC 31.6%, 20 days, B 0.800 S 1.05 Round 1: ROC 16.3%, 28 days B 0.910 S 1.08
Here in SG, we also have few of these smart money grabbers over dummy investors promising these dummy investors Magic Stones that can generate money if you faithfully rub the magic stones everyday. If you didn't generate $$$, they will tell you that you didn't rub the Magic Stones at the right angle or at the right spots.
It is always your fault if you can't get the Magic Stones to puke out $$$$.
If someone really have Magic Stones that can puke out $$$ so easily, why they are selling at $X,XXX. They should have secretly pass the Magic Stones to their family members to generate plenty of $$$ themselves and become one of the richest family in Singapore.
Why would someone who has Magic Stone that can generate so much $$$$$$$$$$$ in days, would want to burn their weekends teaching seminar instead of enjoying their life fully.
If you really come across any Gurus, challenge them to post their trades (buy and sell price) online in near real time in their blog, and let us judge their performance for ourselves.
Most of them will just tell you I "long" this and I "short" that. If they can't do it, they are just selling Magic Stone.
Open your eyes, there is always another Clemen Chiang somewhere.
In a bull market, there is an overall positive perception of the market's ability to keep producing and creating. Because this perception would not exist were it not for some evidence that something is being or will be created, everyone in a bull market can be making money. Of course, the exact opposite can happen in a bear market. To sum it all up, you can think of the stock market as a huge vehicle for wealth creation and destruction
Here in SG, we also have few of these smart money grabbers over dummy investors promising these dummy investors magic stones that can generate money if you faithfully rub the magic stones everyday. If you didn't generate $$$, they will tell you that you didn't rub the magic stones at the right angle or at the right spots.
It is always your fault if you can't get the magic stones to puke out $$$$.
If someone really have magic stones that can puke out $$$ so easily, why they are selling at $X,XXX. They should have secretly pass the magic stones to their family members to generate plenty of $$$ themselves and become one of richest family in Singapore.
Open your eyes, there is always another Bernard Madoff somewhere
....................................... NEW YORK - Court documents released Friday show that Bernard Madoff and his wife Ruth lived a life of high luxury, with exclusive homes, yachts and other assets worth 823 million dollars.
The revelations came in documents filed with the US Court of Appeals due March 19 to hear Madoff's appeal to be granted bail. He was jailed on Thursday after pleading guilty to a multi-billion-dollar investment fraud.
The documents, filed by Madoff's lawyer, show the Wall Street con man and his wife had 22 million dollars worth of real estate at the end of 2008.
PiggyBank asked: anyone of you investors are winning or losing?
Well, it depends on the value of time - your time frame.
If you are day trader, at the end of each trading day, you will know whether you win or lose.
If you are not a day trader, probably, at the end of each month, you will either win or lose.
But, if you are die hard value investor, probably, you will have 8-10 years to know whether you make it or not.
You set your own time frame. Only at the end of the time frame, you will know you make it or not. In between you are just fine-tuning your strategies to progress towards your investing goals or depleting your wealth and working for free; or alternatively your opportunity cost is putting your money in fixed deposits.
For me, another 2.5 years will be the final answer for $1M question: What will you be in another 2.5 years:
A) Reach Financial Independence, out of rat race and become a SUPER PIG. B) Still a PIG lost somewhere in the financial maze. C) Revert from PIG to RAT or COW. D) Becoming a BEGGAR
Opportunity cost or economic opportunity loss is the value of the next best alternative foregone as the result of making a decision.
So you have future cash (those extras not needed in 7-10 years time) and should you stay invest now. What is your opportunity cost?
Well. Putting the cash in a Fixed Deposit to protect capital, and the opportunity cost is about 0.5-0.8%, probably going forward is likely to be less than 3-8%. Banks are more risk averse going forward, and unlikely they will be giving better return to you for taking more risks for you.
Now, the tough decision. Is the opportunity cost of 0.5-0.8% ROC worth taking up the risks and emotion stress of seeing a falling asset value day after day for better return in years to come, or fear of missing the boat, or regretting investing TOO EARLY.
If you can meet with triumph and disaster And treat those two impostors just the same; - Rudyard Kipling
If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never breath a word about your loss; If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew To serve your turn long after they are gone, And so hold on when there is nothing in you Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on"; - Rudyard Kipling
Do you understand how to relate to your investing or trading?
You can meet with triumph and disaster in your investing/trading and both are just the same impostors. You may win big now, but may give back all and more later. You may stare at great losses now, but you win back all plus more. Both are just impostors, and you just need to know that and don't unnecessarily increase your emotional stresses.
Have WILL to HOLD ON and you will see LIGHT within years and probably not decades. Cheers!
If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too; If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies, Or, being hated, don't give way to hating, And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master; If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim; If you can meet with triumph and disaster And treat those two imposters just the same; If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools, Or watch the things you gave your life to broken, And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never breath a word about your loss; If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew To serve your turn long after they are gone, And so hold on when there is nothing in you Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue, Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch; If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you; If all men count with you, but none too much; If you can fill the unforgiving minute With sixty seconds' worth of distance run - Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it, And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!
Let review with a low STI at 1513, what will happen to portfolio value?
STI 1600 on 24 Oct 08: portfolio value is the lowest STI 1595 on 20 Feb 09: STI down -0.3% from 24 Oct 08, portfolio value +19% STI 1513 on 06 Mar 09: STI down -5.4% from 24 Oct 08, portfolio value +17.6%
The review is telling me that one should think of re-balancing, swapping counters to diversify or replacing "dead" counters in the portfolio, as not all counters will fall to new lows or better still some may recover from the previous lows.
So be brave and control your emotion over losses. During the time of market depression, it will also present you with better opportunity for you to re-balance, swapping counters to diversify or replacing "dead" counters in the portfolio at current reasonable price level.
MY FRIEND from Singapore just emailed me with the dreaded news: She has been retrenched. She could see it coming but even so, it still came as a shock, she said.
Her situation is not so bad, she admitted, with a rich boyfriend and parents to support her. Even so, she said, it felt weird to have no cash in hand. “What I wouldn’t do to be you now,” she continued. “You never had to worry about money.”
How wrong she was. I know poor because I’ve been there.
Being poor doesn’t just mean living in a rented one-room flat with barely enough money to buy one meal a day. It can also mean owning a private condo and a car and still not being able to afford a meal a day.
Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary John Tsang recently came under fire from white-collar workers because the government’s latest budget didn’t make many provisions for them. He defended the decision by saying they could just re-mortgage their homes or live on savings. But what he failed to realise was that you can come from the middle class and still be poorer than a blue-collar worker.
Poor is not being able to sell your assets because their values have fallen so much that selling them would mean getting into bigger debt. And you can’t remortgage your home because no bank would give a loan to the jobless. So you end up living in a condo where you can’t afford to pay even the management fee and owning a car you can’t drive because you cannot afford the petrol.
Poor is when every bill strikes you like a body blow and you cross the road to avoid being seen by your usual bubble-tea seller because that $2 can buy you a meal.
I faced poverty during the Sars period, when my husband’s firm went bust and we were left with no savings and debt of over $200,000. Thankfully, I was still working, but my pay was just enough to service the monthly debt repayments.
It was a miserable time. With no jobs to be found, my husband plunged into despair.
No one wanted to rent my studio apartment. I wanted to sell it but the price had plunged so much that I would be owing the bank another $50,000 at least if I had done that. Keeping it and servicing the mortgage was, ironically, the cheaper option. We couldn’t afford to move back to it for a few months because we couldn’t raise enough money to hire a van.
The worst was praying my husband wouldn’t fall ill because we had no medical insurance. We couldn’t fork out the thousands needed to pay for his premiums.
When I tell people my story, they think I am exaggerating the difficulties. “Why didn’t you borrow from your family and friends?” they ask. Well, we would have were it not for pride (having been brought up by our parents never to beg) and the fact that we knew they didn’t have that much to spare anyway.
It was a time to find out who our real friends were. Some quietly paid for our dinners and offered help in a roundabout way. One pretended it would be a favour to her if we took a bunch of toiletries off her hands as “they were cluttering up my bathroom”.
But there were those who stopped calling us up for fear we would ask them for money. Some lent us money then chased us for repayment so aggressively I sold my only shares at 10 per cent their value so that we wouldn’t be beholden to them.
As the middle-income noveau poor, we were in limbo — we earned too much to qualify for any assistance but not enough to pay off our debts. But declaring bankruptcy was not an option, not if my husband wanted to start another business again.
We tightened our belts, ate lots of egg, vegetables and rice and somehow made it through the year, until my husband found a job again.
Even now, we still don’t have much to show for our 20 years of working but we are debt-free — and that, to me, is richness enough.
Tabitha Wang still gets annoyed when her husband leaves the light on even though they can now afford to pay the bill.
Round 5:(2nd Half) ROC 12%, 27 days, B 0.965 S 1.08 Round 4:(1st Half) ROC 14%, 8 days, B 0.965 S 1.11 Round 3: ROC 7.1%, 8 days, B 0.830 S 0.895 Round 2: ROC 31.6%, 20 days, B 0.800 S 1.05 Round 1: ROC 16.3%, 28 days B 0.910 S 1.08
I just naturally want to do things that make sense. In my personal life too, I don’t care what other rich people are doing. I don’t want a 405 foot boat just because someone else has a 400 foot boat. - Warren Buffett
Find happiness in simple pleasures
I have simple pleasures. I play bridge online for 12 hours a week. Bill and I play, he’s “chalengr” and I’m “tbone”. - Warren Buffett
If one of the richest men in the world is doing it, why aren't we?
1. Learn not to be so materialistic because not everything must be of high prices.
2. Learn to strike a balance in life and decide between wants and needs. Needs are easily met, but wants can be unlimited, you probably have to struggle very hard, and spend long hours earning more money to meet your wants.
3. Simplicity is the key to your early financial independence path, but, you don’t have to be a miser to lead simple life
Mar 1, 2009, the sundaytimes, article by Lee Wei Ling
Don't put off till tomorrow what you can do today, for there may be no tomorrow. (by wei ling)
I strongly agree with the writer.
Enjoy your life each day but do remember to plan today for your loved ones. We can't really mitigate emotional shock but for financial shock, we can by all means to mitigate or better to leave behind no debts.
So don't give shock, and better NOT to shock your loved ones and takes out your calculator today and compute the amount of the debts payable by them. Take care of the debts payable while you still can, if possible adequately covered by insurance.
Never put off till tomorrow something that one can and should do today. There may be no tomorrow. (by wei ling)
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