Read? Time in the Market > Timing the Market??? (4)
Read? No Blog Post On Investing??? (2)
Many times hearing DBS CIO mentioning Barbell investing strategy!
Barbell?
Is Timing the market is also another form of long-term Barbell investing strategy for patient retail i.e. earning low interests without losing any money in the war chest and crossing over to higher risk in expectation of higher return and nothing in between before the Bull-Bear cycle?
Right?
Posts
CW,
ReplyDeleteI think as you get "younger", you are becoming more "grey"; less precision in 2 decimal places ;)
Hey! If it makes you happy, why not?
But in case you forget, a Barbell is TWO big round round things, left and right. No, not the ones on a women! The carry weights thingy you see in the gym!
Market timing is moving from left to right, and from right to left. There's only ONE big round thingy. Like a pendulum?
You sit in cash rotting. When opportunity comes, you go all-in show hand! Then when bei kambings are excited, you get out and sit on cash again ;)
At the gym, I think I'll stay clear of you. Most of us would pump Barbells UP and DOWN. You? You'll swing it LEFT to RIGHT!?
LOL!
Lol, that's a brilliant analogy SMOL!
DeleteHow barbell strategy work is - on the bar you put a set of low risk assets on one end and a set of high risk / growth assets on the other (nothing like regular stocks eg. Keppel in between). Low risk ones take up higher weightage than high risk ones, cos we assume the high risk ones will GROW and weigh up with time.
;)
Rainbow girl,
DeleteAt least one person appreciate my humour ;)
Barbell and Risk Parity failed BIG TIME during March 2020 last year.
Even gold got sold down which broke the hearts of many gold bugs - so much for safe assets...
When everyone wants to get out, EVERYTHING got sold down :(
The only safe assets were CASH and those with short positions ;)
A lot of strategies and tactics in investing/trading work; until they don't.
The trick is we must match our Method with Money Management ;)
When the US family office Archegos blew up, not all investment banks had the same losses. Some lost big time, some got out with just a paper cut.
The secret sauce?
Risk Management.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteHi SMOL,
DeleteTreasury bonds for a moment shot up like mad. They were my "safe asset" when everything else crashed last year that time.
Then when things bottomed, they started to plummet. Good thing got "stop loss" to take money off.
Ehhh .... Uncle8888's barbell still got 2 big things mah .... stocks & cash.
ReplyDeleteOk ok, his is still a bit lopsided, but you get the picture.
PS: DBS CIO's idea was having lots of Reits/some bonds on one hand & lots of tech/growth on the other. He maintained this for the past few years ... not sure about his latest thoughts though.
For market timing using dual momentum amongst STI, S&P500, Nasdaq, China, India, Europe --- STI and Europe stocks are currently the strongest. The sick men of yesterday are leading today.
Spur,
DeleteAll sell-side vested interest will not "advocate" or "recognise" cash as part of their "strategies" to clients.
You can only charge fees Assets Under Management.
In the old days, just say "Long Term" was enough for clients to quiet, quiet suffer losses and still pay fees for AUM ;)
Now customers a little bit more sophisticated. So must come out with "sexier" spin to keep clients 100% vested at ALL TIMES. If Barbell not sexy enough, there's always Risk Parity ;)
The moment clients withdraw and stay in cash, the bank eat what?
Even more painful is when clients deposit the cash into savings accounts with the same bank; now its cash flow out through bank interests to clients.
NO!!!
Time in the market, timing the market, both can make money. Each individual got to decide for himself which style fits him best.
ReplyDeleteTiming the market, if done well, will lead to lower draw-down in a bear market Time in the market can save the investor much more time because he does not need to spend time deciding when, what, how much to move in and out of the market.
"Timing the market" suits people who have a keen interest in the markets.