Read? When a Giant Gain Causes Pain (5)
M1 still defensive in view of incoming stronger competitor?
It is not unexpectedly to talk about M1 when they have the chance to ask your fellow retail investor.
Uncle8888 is not vetted in any Telcos yet.
Market is up, up and UP; but M1 is down, down and DOWN!
This is NOT emotional selling from retail; but systematic selling by BBs. Right?
Posts
This the challenge of investing in individual stocks. Need to keep in-touch with business/company prospects, management capabilities, management changes, management plans, company financials, topline/bottomline trends, debt levels, payout ratios, competitors, industry trends, certain economic & social events around the world that may impact, etc.
ReplyDeleteI'm too dumb & lazy to do so much work. So I just invest in broad ETFs and funds. Easier for me to apply & follow trend following & momentum strategies too. Can move large amounts in and out of markets no prob, and sometimes no transaction costs too.
But better to do it in large overseas markets. More liquid & easier to get the price you want. And becoz markets so big, even if you move $1M in & out at 1 shot also don't really affect the prices much, if at all.
The main prob is knowing how much slack to give to various asset classes. Too tight and you will get whipsawed especially when markets are mild +/- 5%. Too loose and you will give a big chunk to the Bear Bear in the initial stage. I find using the 200 day EMA is quite acceptable for most asset classes in timing the in's and out's.
I'm too dumb to know what is the correct price .... to me all current prices are correct .... Whether can make money or not .... that's another question!!! Hahahaha!!!
ReplyDeleteFor me .... the trend is my friend .... until it is NOT!!! Hohohoho!!!!
Spur,
ReplyDeleteAh! Good to know another Trend Follower here ;)
ETFs are the nicest thing since sliced bread!
Great trading vehicle especially for global macro or those who are into thematic plays.
Free I must write some trading posts so we can "banter" a bit ;)
Heheheh!! I only became a serious trendie after GFC .... Sob! Sob!
ReplyDeleteBefore that I was into proper asset allocation, globally diversified, annual rebalancing, have your emergency fund setup, monthly DCA thru thick & thin, and being fully invested all the time. The standard Harry Markowitz, Fama-French, EMT, efficient frontier yada yada.
Which saw my portfolio going down almost -50% during by Mar 2009. After that thinking there must be better way especially if no further luxury of good salary to make up portfolio drawdowns or to be able to keep pumping in aggressively during extended market lows.
Experimented with momentum & trend following from 2010 onwards. Hence was out of the markets during 2011 correction, and out of Asia during the 2015 Asian downturn. But also had to bear with whipsaws especially during 2013 (very frustrating then!) .... last "whipsaw" was in Nov/Dec 2016 for my Asian funds.
I still (kind of) believe in the traditional "proper" global asset allocation fully invested approach, but only if starting at a young age, and definitely with glide path to reducing risk exposure as they wind down in the last 10 years before retirement.
Spur,
ReplyDeleteAh! You educated one; not no study one like me ;)
Sound like you either have studied Business Finance or got CFA.
You know your stuffs. You are not one of those who attended a few workshops and start parroting the platitudes to anyone and everyone...
Give your contact to CW.
Free we have a cup of kopi and we can "debate" a bit why I think there is no "safe" or "proper" asset allocation strategies. Just look at Risk Parity now ;)
Every strategy will work; until it doesn't.
LOL!
SMOL,
ReplyDeleteNo lah .... me so-called educated but still dumb ... and still feeling my way thru trial & error!! Hahaha!!!
I also dunno how I scrapped thru Uni .... did Comp Sci using IBM mainframes & DEC (not so)mini-computers just before the Web & HTML was so rudely thrown upon us. In my time, Comp Sci was the dumping ground ... apart from Arts .... Hahahaha!!!!
Risk Parity ... too much work for a lazy ass like me!! Kekeke!!! Now everybody blames market convulsions (especially in the bond markets) on everybody and his dog using Risk Parity...
Layman Risk Parity now is buying long-dated Treasuries or LEAPS puts. Pros of course have their supercomputers constantly calculating asset covariances & risks and doing real-time rebalancing and leveraging.