Just For Thinking ....
Read? Multi-baggers
Peter Lych:
You don't need a lot in your lifetime. You only need a few good stocks in your lifetime. I mean how many times do you need a stock to go up ten-fold to make a lot of money? Not a lot.
I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks,
some will do mediocre,
some will do okay, and
if one of two of 'em go up big time,
you produce a fabulous result.
And I think that's the promise to some people.
Some stocks go up 20-30 percent and they get rid of it and they hold onto the dogs. And it's sort of like watering the weeds and cutting out the flowers. You want to let the winners run.
When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one winner, you basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need.
I mean stocks are out there. When I ran Magellan, I wrote a book. I think I listed over a hundred stocks that went up over ten-fold when I ran Magellan and I owned thousands of stocks. I owned none of these stocks.
I missed every one of these stocks that went up over ten-fold. I didn't own a share of them. And I still managed to do well with Magellan. So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes.
In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten. This is not like pure science where you go, "Aha" and you've got the answer. By the time you've got "Aha," Chrysler's already quadrupled or Boeing's quadrupled. You have to take a little bit of risk.
CW8888:
Can this be true for long only retail investors in Singapore?
What happen to Uncle8888 since Jan 2000 when he became deadly serious with investing and trading in Singapore stock market?
Peter Lych's Secret:
I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks,
some will do mediocre,
some will do okay, and
if one of two of 'em go up big time,
you produce a fabulous result.
Uncle8888's Secret:
Read? Uncle8888, how do you find multi-bagger stock? (Re-visit)
Can 54 different stocks in SGX mean a lot of stocks?
Two ZERO baggers! Deadly painful!!!
18 Bleeding Hearts!!! Even with doses of Panadols couldn't stop the sharp pain from these bleeding hearts.
Just a few multi-baggers will help to forget all the past pain and be wise enough to avoid picking up future ZERO baggers is enough for him.
A few multi-baggers may do the magic.
The Losers and winners
What we have in the market is never ours yet!!!
Did you notice what was taken back by Mr. Market?
Posts
You understand the Moral of the Story?
ReplyDeleteHa! Ha!
ReplyDeleteThe moral of the story is:-
Tail Risks - An Ode to the Joy of Cash
http://trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/JM_...sk_611.pdf
A Value Investor’s Perspective on Tail Risk Protection:
An Ode to the Joy of Cash
James Montier
///////////////
Conclusions
Tail risk protection appears to be one of many investment fads du jour. All too often those seeking tail risk protection
appear to be motivated by the fear of missing out (not fear at all, but greed). However, the surge of tail risk products
may well not be the hoped-for panacea. Indeed, they may even contain the seeds of their own destruction (something
we often encounter in finance – witness portfolio insurance, etc). If the price of tail risk insurance is driven up too
high, it simply won’t benefit its purchasers.
When considering tail risk protection, investors must start by defining the tail risk they are seeking to protect
themselves against. This sounds obvious, but often seems to get scant attention in the tail risk discussion. Once you
have identified the risk, you can start to think about how you would like to protect yourself against that risk. In many
situations, cash is a severely under appreciated tail risk hedge. The hardest element of tail risk protection is likely to
be timing. It is clear that a permanent allocation is likely to do more harm than good in many situations.
When it comes to timing tail risk protection, a long-term value-based approach and an emphasis on absolute standards
of value, coupled with a broad mandate (a wide opportunity set, or, investment flexibility, if you prefer) seems to offer
the best hope.
Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of James Montier and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an
offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative
purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
Copyright 2011 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved.
NB:-
Very "cheem" for me. Anyone like to say it as simple as possible? For people like me (Bo Tak Chet one).
The moral of the story for me is no matter how you look at it, "CASH is still KING."
Shalom.
WB:-
I am lucky once, got Cosco at $0.52, 1:1 split, and sold all at $7.30.
ReplyDeleteWah! Super, super shiok!
DeleteCongrat! But investment size counts.
Delete