This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!
"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder
"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle
It is here where I share with you how I did it!
FREE Education in stock market wisdom.
Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down
Rolf Suey16 June 2017 at 00:40:00 GMT+8
ReplyDeletemaybe our money leave for our loved ones may not be as good an idea after all, bcos there r times that they may not only squander it and may even will become taking things for granted.
Another reason to include asset draw-down strategy
DeleteCW,
DeleteIf the so called "experts" don't make it "complicated", how to convince people to PAY them for their "advice"?
"Free" advice can be the most EXPENSIVE...
P.S. You poke on those who espouse a frugal and minimalistic lifestyle, yet when it comes to integrated policies... LOL!
Reminds me of the old joke. Everyone wants to go to heaven. But no one wants to die first...
Uncle SMOL,
ReplyDeleteExperts == > Complicated == > Charge $$$
You hit it right on the nail!! I was thinking exactly the same thing when I read the 1st sentence of Uncle CW's blog post. Hahaha!!!
Anyway, this is not new. Backtest, monte carlo simulations, wooly calculations, black magic, hocus pocus, academic research etc has been done on this for at least 25 years in Ivy League ivory towers liao. Even got Nobel laureates economic professors also jump in & provide their Greek alphabet integration differentiation calculus formulas.
(BTW, the simple PV / FV formula is actually an integration calculus formula)
I first read about this in the mid-1990s. To make it simplistic, the basic conclusion for fixed drawdown is to start off with 4% of portfolio value (this is annual amount), and then increase the drawdown by inflation rate annually, say 3%.
To have good probability (e.g. >80% chance) of portfolio lasting till 95 yrs old, there should still be significant asset allocation to stocks e.g. 30%.
But all these based on black magic chanting, paper back-testing and probability analysis using monte carlo simulations, and some blood sacrifices.
In recent years, because of the "new normal" with 2 big market declines in early 2000s and 2008, people are saying that portfolio returns in future will not be so good as in the past, and so initial withdrawal of 3% will be safer.
The paper that Uncle CW linked is saying that after all their black magic mumbo jumbo, that initial 4% still OK lah. Although the experts cover their ass by saying DEPENDs on whether retirees are "flexible", can "downgrade" or "downsize", whether got guaranteed pension or annuity or not. Wah Lao!!!
PS: For those scared their descendants will squander their inheritance, just put into trust. Can specify monthly withdrawals on fixed or percentage amounts. Can also specify certain conditions when & how much large amounts of money released e.g. medical emergencies, when children reach 50 yrs old, etc etc.
Spur,
DeleteLet's keep it casual and informal here - just call me SMOL or Jared ;)
If you call me "yan eh", I'll buy coffee!
Uncle is equal to senior citizen?
Deletehahahaha.... SMOL got promoted!
DeleteFor children who REALLY need Trust e.g. physically or mentally handicapped.
ReplyDeleteThere is Special Needs Trust Company which is supported by Ministry of Social & Family Development and National Council of Social Services.
https://www.sntc.org.sg/
Principal value of the trust funds is guaranteed by SG govt.
Fees are 90% to 100% subsidized by MSF.
But for rich spoilt brats, SORRY HORRR!!! Go set up your billion dollar trust fund with HSBC Trustees or something. Hahahaha!!!!
Min $5m to setup private trust
ReplyDelete