How about those have started investing so much earlier before the next crisis? How many of us may be doing this? How many of us may be avoiding it? Read? After 17 Years In The Stock Market What Is My Greatest Regret? The greatest regret of 2008/2009 GFC by Uncle8888 for missing the truly great opportunity in the market to create wealth through short-term trading and long term investing to generate cash flow for the next decade or more. But; foolishly he has missed that one. Will the next crisis be near the similar scale?
Do we invest to break even or recover from past losses?
Lets return to the HDB heartlands. Even without a 2nd investment/rental property, those who treat the humble HDB flat as an investment would play the 2 bites of the cherry, upgrade, downgrade game. Look around your relatives, neighbours, colleagues and classmates. There are lots of annecdotal evidence. Verify for yourself! See?
The Mind or psychological part of investing is quite powerful, isn't it. CW8888: Hmmm ... Back to real person, real people in his ex-office cubicle Verifying! Residential Property as Retirement Fund
Both of them took the path of their residential property as their retirement fund.
57 stopped speculating in stocks and took the property path. He has upgraded from three room HDB to 5 room HDB and currently still have a few years of mortgage to go.
He couldn't meet his MSS (BRS) at age of 55 and automatically has to pledge 50% of his HDB flat to meet MSS (BRS). CW8888 vs. 57 Senior
CW8888 with no second bite of cherry but allows his CPF OA to compound at 2.5% rate while 57 Senior took second bite of cherry by upgrading to 5 RM HDB Sengkang.
Even this 57 Senior finally took down downgrade game. Since it is not million dollar property; Uncle8888 doing the Maths doesn't think that he is going to have fatter retirement fund.
Read? Renting a home can be a savvy decision Quote : "I looked to investment guru Robert Kiyosaki's Rich Dad Poor Dad blog, in which he wrote: "Repeat after me, your house is not an asset." His line of thinking is that it matters little how much a property appreciates in price. What matters more is "whether it provides cash flow every month". "The key is to make your money on the buy, not the sell," he said, so that one does not have to worry about whether the asset value goes up. Cash flow from a house would therefore come from the rent. So if you live in your own house, it cannot be considered an asset." CW8888: How about holding a few stocks on good buy for cash flow and does not have to worry about the asset value up or down? Fact or Fiction : The key is to make your money on the buy, not the sell
If you haven't personally experience it through your own investing journey; it is very hard to understand fact or fiction. After more than one decade of receiving cash flow from these free hold stocks and Mathematically Infinity gains; what else could he probably complain or unhappy about? One time investing effort; not good as passive income for more years to come?
A few Point X for most of them .... 1. Fully pay off yourresidential housing loan 2. Having your first and last child 3. Reaching financial independence 4. Fulfilling your dream activities 5.Life insurance is not necessary
There are some saving on job related expenses; entertainment and gifts expenses related to office colleagues; but these saving may NOT be significant to lower the annual household expenses. If we really want to lower household expenses; STOP travelling. We will see significant drop in annual household expenses. Think of early retirement and travel more and can still lower annual household expenses. Think again! It is just another myth!
F.I.R.E before 40 onjust investment portfolio income? With another 40 to 50 years of inflation ahead of them; can dependency on just investment income be sustainable? May be single it is still possible; but for those married with kids and that will mean more wild cards to manage. Wild cards are unpredictable! How much is enough? Uncle8888 shivered at doing the Maths. Or F.I.R.E before 40 just means doing other sort of activities with less emphasis on compensation, rewards or pay.
For the past donkey years; Papa was the one paying for Mother's Day Get Together Dinner. But; actually whose Mother's Day? Now; it is truly Mother's Day dinner as mother's children is the one paying for her dinner not her spouse. LOL!
Saving money vs. Saving time Unlce8888 has initially planned for Taiwan Round 4 in March 2017; but it was cancelled due to his Hernia operations in March so he postponed to August to visit Cairns and avoiding Taiwan due to Typhoon season beginning in August. Flight fare to Cairns Australia is more costly as compared to flight to Taiwan so must do some airfare comparison! Skyscanner shows: (a) Direct flight by SilkAir : $1.5K, 6 hrs 45 mins (b) 1 Stopover by BA+Qantas : $960 19 hrs 55 mins Both ways saving for two persons: $1,080 Time spent at airport during two stopovers : 26 hours When Uncle8888 was working and his annual leaves are limited so the choice of saving money vs. saving time is simpler. Saving time is better than saving money.
Save $1K or spend 26 hours? Walau! Now; the choice is not so straight forward as he has plenty of spare time to lose. Think think think. Saving money or saving time? LOL! Spending 13 hours at airport may be too much even he has lots of spare time to burn so he booked direct flight by SilkAir and burnt $1K away. :-)
Same as the CPF Talk. Initially; the topic suggested was Maximizing CPF For Your Retirement when he was first approached to participate in the talk. If it is about Maximizing; then don't find him. LOL! So do you want to maximize or optimize your wealth in younger years by monetizing all your available free time? Any time lost in your younger years can never be recovered with whatever large quantity of money that you have maximized. For those who wish to have spouse in their life; it is better to find one when you are poorer and not richer. When you are richer; you may become too cautious whenever someone gets too close to you. Love me or my money. Hmm ... Arh. Think and think! Soon senior citizens!
Uncle8888 is trying to avoid the repeat of what has happened in 2007 - 2009 where his investment portfolio plunged from 12.2% to 1.6% It has been super long wait! A fall from larger stock exposure will take a lots just to get back to the previous peak. How about a larger war chest instead of larger stock exposure? How will the investment portfolio perform?
1. When you have goal, the route to it becomes a labour. Put it another way, it is too linear and anything linear is hardly fun or interesting.
2. The imagination becomes closed to other possibilities. A goal limits your actions. There isn't room to explore other pathways.
3. The goal usually need to be precise and has time-limit. This is exact reason why goals backfire - they encourage us to focus narrowly.
As retail investors; you are answerable to nobody except yourself and also there are no bosses to set S.M.A.R.T Goals or KPIs for you to achieve and reward you accordingly. Why do you have to set S.M.A.R.T investing goals for yourself? For investing goals; you avoid acting smart and be dumb by setting Stretch Goals or Band Range Goals. Like Uncle8888 setting his 10-years investing goals
For his F.I.R.E Goal; when he made it! Of course; he Bom Pi Pi and tells everybody it is the way he has made it. Once you are successful; you can say whatever way you like it and how you have made it. Goals or No Goal is irrelevant! Just show your big number. You are likely to get Wow! So you either set F.I.R.E Goal for yourself or naturally you will get fired when time comes. You will one day be fired from your full-time job either involuntarily through retrenchment or statutory on your official retirement age. Of course; you can set F.I.R.E Goal; when you made it you Bom Pi Pi; but when you don't. You still naturally be fired! This is no big deal as you don't have to answer to anybody. Right?
Read? More Articles Many different views if you ask around and get confused with often conflicting views: Good debt or Bad debt? Housing loan is the cheapest loan in town and you don't know how to leverage on it. You are dumb! Right? So you ask Uncle8888 how? Uncle8888 always thinks that his residential home is consumption item and never was an investment instrument. All consumption loans are bad debts which to be avoided if possible or otherwise pay off ASAP! Simple man. Simple thinking! When our company started to rumor on pending retrenchment; then those who are debt free may say: Heng ah!
So by now; you may read many version and definitions of what's the edge for successful retail "investors"? First thing first; he doesn't add a single cent as additional capital since Jan 2000 when he became a very determined DIY retail investors. So what is Uncle8888's edge? 10 years yearly Goals; plan and re-plan; think and re-think; strategize and re-strategize; refine and refine; track, measure and see its performance. He answered to nobody! At the end of day; the outcome and result truly matters. The rest is just theories and concepts and good for teaching and earning some teaching fees.
How about self-employed without bosses to point their third finger? Without bosses; who else can make self-employed buay song? Today; Uncle8888 has hokkien mee for lunch! The famous one with his written rule clearly showed in front of his stall when you are ordering. One plate for one person!
Saturday, 21 March 2015 Our Desired Investing Outcome: The Pareto Principle (80/20) Read? The Pareto Principle (80/20) Investing Strategy Uncle8888 wrote this in .. Sunday, 2 September 2012 Investors. Know at least Pareto's Principle Pareto Principle ~ “20% of the effort generates 80% of the results.” Market Timing vs. Time in Market??? Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis? Short-term Trading vs. Long-term Investing??? For long-term investors, we should be observing Pareto's Principle. 80% patiently waiting for Market Timing and then spend 80% Time in Market with 20% of our effort will generate 80% of the results. And then we spend another 80% market timing for next cycle. Diversify and then naturally keep the large winners as Concentrate for its liquid cash and cut off the rest of not so good ones. Pareto Principle in action! The outcome as on 8 May 2017
"I hate cash," Buffett said in an interview that aired Friday on "Squawk Box," one day before Berkshire's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. "I mean we are investing," he said. "But [cash] is a holding position until you find something else. But the very fact that interest rates are that low makes it hard for us to buy other things because other people buy things with borrowed money, and borrowed money is so cheap." He added: "If we are competing with equity money against slim equity plus a lot of debt, we're at a disadvantage." Buffett said he thought Berkshire was doing well with $90 billion cash until he saw this week that Apple's cash pile swelled to $256.8 billion in its fiscal second-quarter. "I'm very jealous," he laughed. "I thought I was doing OK until I looked at their balance sheet." "On the other hand," he said. "We've got ours here in the United States." Apple keeps most of its cash outside the U.S. for tax purposes. CW8888: Is sitting on pile of cash waiting for opportunities is doing well? Hmm ... like that arh! Then based on Buffet's wisdom on cash; Uncle8888 should be doing fine too.
... Such investment scams are usually managed by people who hold meetings in posh offices and hotels, which boosts their public image and lend credence to their products. Some investments appear to provide some form of insurance, which investors wrongly believed could protect their capital. Many of these investors then invited family members and friends to participate, partly because there are commissions to be earned when they refer fresh candidates and partly because they truly believed the schemes were bona fide. Real People. Real Losses CW8888: Oilpods scam; one ex-colleage's spouse, siblings and close relatives all die together! ..... One 55-year-old investor who put almost $40,000 into an oil bunkering scheme, expecting 15 per cent monthly returns over eight months, recalled how stressful the experience had been for her. In her case, her nightmare began after receiving just two payouts. When the payouts dried up, dark thoughts consumed her mind and she went through an emotional roller coaster with feelings of anger, rage and depression, and countless sleepless nights. She also despaired as it was a friend who had referred her to the scheme. She was subsequently diagnosed with Stage 2 breast cancer. After surgery and six weeks of radiotherapy, she counted herself fortunate that her condition has stabilised and she is on a five-year anti-hormonal pills regime. INVESTING WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE A 45-year-old investor borrowed $400,000 from a credit line as the principal sum for her investment in a scheme. When the scheme collapsed, the monthly interest portion of the debt was a staggering $8,000, which devastated her. Another took a loan from his 25-year endowment insurance plan to fund an investment. If he had not taken the loan against the policy, the potential maturity proceeds would have been about $100,000 when it matured last year. Instead, his maturity proceeds were just $20,000. This means that the premiums he had saved in his insurance policy for the past 25 years had gone down the drain. ONCE BITTEN BUT NOT TWICE SHY The adage "once bitten twice shy" does not hold true for some retail investors. One medical doctor admitted to me that he had lost his money twice to schemes that turned out to be run in a Ponzi-like manner. In a Ponzi scheme, people are enticed into investing by the promise of high returns. The returns, however, are paid out of funds from new investors entering the scheme. It all goes swimmingly until the flow of funds dries up when the operator is unable to get enough new investors to pay off the older ones, and he flees with the money. Another investor in her 60s had parked more than $500,000 in binary options but has not been able to withdraw any returns nor her capital. To make matters worse, she lost more money when she tried to retrieve her money through an overseas agency that claimed to have helped other binary option investors trapped like her. Real People. Real Losses CW8888: Time-sharing scam; one ex-colleage lost money his money. One agency stepped in and called for a meeting for investors to put up $5K each and collectively the agency would have enough fund to fight the case and retrieve some lost money. The Agency subsequently also disappeared. Beware! There are scammers looking for a kill and scavengers looking for your dead bodies too.
In her bid to recover her retirement savings, she had responded to an individual who claimed to work for an international police agency who linked her up with a hacker. She forked out $10,000 on the hacking software but nothing has materialised. In addition, she is considering legal help from the US but has been told to pay a high initial fee. BACK TO BASICS A former classmate has been encouraging me to sign up for an overseas-based scheme where so-called professional traders will deal in blue-chip US stocks on my behalf. It is not regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The initial investment sum is US$10,000 (S$14,035) and my friend claimed the trades have made him richer by achieving about 7 per cent monthly net returns.
He also earns commissions by referring investors to the scheme; his parents and siblings have joined. CW8888: Why it can happen to retail investors? Fear of losing OUT is the Greed that is even more fearful!
Until they have close friends or relatives whom they can trust to be financially savvy and competent to seek for alternative views before investing. Many more sad cases will continue to happen! You may read; but it may NOT hit your heart hard enough to truly understand it! Bo pian!
No free lunch. Not much different from hiring domestic helper to do the dirty jobs without getting our hands dirty. Right? Retail investing will require our time or effort to learn over market cycles; if not willing to spend some time and effort to learn this craft; then outsource to institutional based index investing. Alternative to index investing? How about? Less Analyzing. More Investing- CW8888 But it is NOT less stressful investing! Not same hor!
Singapore Man of Leisure5 May 2017 at 19:44 Sillyinvestor, You may discover it one day ;) 2 hunters in the forest surprised by a menacing bear. An edge is knowing you can outrun the other hunter ;)
Hmm.... Discovered! Uncle8888 doesn't need to outrun anybody else in the market; his edge is knowing his estimated future household expenses for 2+ based on his highest historical household expenses of five and his Tap 1 can outrun his future household expenses. An edge in investing for sustainable retirement income for life is knowing his Tap 1 can outrun his life and not competing against others. You mean after other hunters losing once; but they never learn to find their edge to outrun you the next time?
Uncle8888's edge is simply knowing his money can outrun his life.
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Read? Consolidating My New Chapter of Life Can we measure happiness purely from the perspective of money? I was told that there was a blogger telling people not to start a family until one is FI. If this is told on my face, I would ask the person to go and fly kite, because human being may go into existence for that reason. How many people can give birth in the 40s or 50s? Old man marrying young wife? Perhaps. But, that ruler of measuring a relationship by money itself is a joke. Read? Our Life: The Past is not the Present. The Present is not Future!
It is far better to find your spouse when you are poorer. At least you reduce the probability of your money attracting the wrong spouse. Real Story. Real Person! Uncle8888's older relative has successfully started his family based restaurant business in US, expanded his restaurant business and became rich. When his son wanted to find his spouse; his son came to Singapore to work as factory worker in one of electronic companies where there were many female workers. From there; he began to beo the right woman and courted her. He finally found that right woman and married her and went back to US to continue with his family restaurant business. That man who was willing to take time off and disguise himself as poor working class to look for his spouse. What is the Moral of the Story?
Did you notice most successful people like to talk loudly about their past mistakes and how they have learned from these mistakes?
When you are NOT yet successful and you keep mentioning or talking about your mistakes; some may laugh at you when you turned your back? Walau! This fellow never learn from his or her mistakes or this fellow chopped fingers liao. Same same as after point X on having Goals or No Goal!
The way we talk is far different from the way many years before we are successful or have achieved. 人家说你就信？ When we listen to some smart talk; we should judge the speaker is talking at which stage?
I am 60+ yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has retired @ 60 on 30 Sep 2016.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 and now becoming full-time retail investor. So I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I have two sons and one daughter; two working adult children and the youngest son is currently in his 1st year SUTD.
I am currently executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038
Last updated: 16 Oct 2016
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