Market Cycles of What??? (2)

STI is still high at 3,324!

But, what happen to Uncle8888's Hard Truth Portfolio?

It dips below 2007 Peak level last Friday. 

It is more likely to dip down further as crude oil is still in the downtrend with no sign of price stability.

In 2007, the banks took the lead to the Bear Market so Uncle8888 did the "right" thing to cut his exposure to DBS, sold all OCBC and UOB and switched to other horses to ride the recovery.

It is common sense in long-term investing. Cut the rotting and smelly ones. Right?



Read? Market Cycles of What???


This time, will he cut his exposure to these smelly and oily men as they are currently leading him to Hell?


Mr Market will Give and Take! It is sector rotation at work!


It is up to us to see what we can do with our investment portfolio to re-balance and to achieve better investment performance result than the last market cycle.


Looking back at his own History in the market.




What happened in 2007?

Lacking of planning for War Chest as he was thinking that the Party was not going to end so soon.

Small war chest at 5%. Staying invested is the way to go!

Collecting dividends couldn't be bad thing to do. Right?

What happened in 2008/2009?

At the lowest, Mr Market took back 38.3% of his paper profit from his portfolio at Oct 2007 Portfolio Peak Value.



With a small war chest of just 5% at 2007 Peak Bull, he couldn't do much and probably missed once upon his lifetime chance to make it much bigger!

In 2008/2009, he was just busy cutting losses and switching horses.

Is this productive in the market?

Cutting losses and locking in negative returns to achieve better investment performance?


The Outcome of lack of Planning?


"The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat; how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose."  - Sun Tze




On 5 Dec 2014,

 

1. Paper profit lost back to Mr. Market: - 9.8% from the Portfolio Peak Value on 31 Jul 2014. It can easily lose back another 10 - 15% if Mr. Bankers decide to join the Crash.

2. Too much planning for building up War Chest as we tend to live with the nightmares from past bad nights?

3. Who is right over market cycles? 

Staying invested for dividend income 


or 

Seize potential opportunities to grow much bigger.