Active vs. Passive Investing and the “Suckers at the Poker Table” Fallacy Who are the real suckers? Uncle8888's has heard many time when he encountered new faces/starfishes that his slides are so cheem!
What is the real debate behind Active (DIY) vs. Passive (Index investing)?
One statement to clearly differentiate it: It is about building up one's own investing competency beyond self doubt! Self-doubt? No?
Unless it is your own company or your father's company. The day will come that the company thinks that it has given him enough grace or Face to "force" him to retire. No more extension for him. Now he became ex-GCTO of Uncle8888's ex-company. We can love our job and want to work till our death; but; the company can't love us till our death to part!
Uncle8888 doesn't! That is why he has Tap 2 as self-insured medical and health care fund in addition to coverage by medical insurance.
"We have bought insurances coverage on good faith; but don't ever expect the insurance companies to pay our claims on good faith as they are not our father or mother who helps to pour milk into our mouth as they exist to make money for their Management and their shareholders." - Createwealth8888
Uncle8888 was flipping the pages of SundayTimes at NLB when he came to read on ME & MY MONEY.
Vicom was one "Guru" stock pick. BreadTalk was the other late "Guru" stock pick. He was very curious to know what was or is that multi-bagger stock pick by this value investing "Guru".
But, he was shocked, arh and walau at the answer! When he recovered from the initial shock; he thinks deeper why like that! Yeap! "Guru" was right! He is actually running a training school business making much more money than investment return from personal financial investment from stocks picking. Now "Guru" answer made real sense to Uncle8888. Truly honest answer! Fully agreed! "Guru" best investment is Msc (e-business).
2. Maximum CPF allocation to CPF OA is 23% of wage 3. The Ordinary Wage (OW) Ceiling limits the amount of OW that would attract CPF contributions. The OW Ceiling is capped at $6,000 currently. (Before 1 Jan 2016, OW Ceiling was $5,000) 4. Assuming 3 months year end bonus. 5. Median gross monthly income in 2016 is $4,056 and i.e. 68% of OW Ceiling of $6,000
How much can we possibly have in our CPFIS as war chest? By simplifying the Maths Maximummandatory contribution to CPF OA as employees at OW Ceiling = 23% x $6,000 x 15 = $20,700 per year For 10 years : $207,000 in CPFOA or 35% for CPFIS = $72, 450 For 20 years : $414,000 in CFP OA or 35% for CPFIS = $144,900 For many of us, if not most of us as employees will not have large CPFIS as war chest. Right? So how to win this CPFIS war game? Understand their wise words
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." ~ George Soros In the famous book entitled Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Jessie Livermore said: “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine -- that is, they made no real money out of it. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.” Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Many financial investment writers out there in the cyber world like to share on theories and concepts so it is about time for Uncle8888 to share with you the story of Coca Cola - The Real Thing! Hmm .. may be too young to know this past long running advertisement of Coca Cola. It is harder to tune to the whisper of lone voice among the loud Pipers' call in the social media of investing circus showing amazing acts with CPF accounts for retirement; but finally we still have to choose our own poison to act!
That is equivalent of $17.8K top up to his CPF OA per year for 17 years since Uncle8888 started as serious retail investor from Jan 2000 to 2017. On top of $303K, each refund back to CPF OA will continue to earn 2.5% compound interests for X to 1X years. Total investment gains will include another $XX,XXX interests and the best part is that counting of investment gains is not ending soon. For how many more good years to count? Don't know!
PS: The current CPF Annual Limit is $37,740 since 2016. Hmm .. Effective top up to his CPF OA = $20,700 + 17,836 = $38,536. Whoa! CPF OA has exceeded CPF Annual Limit of $37,740 for voluntary CPF Top up!
Depending on who we ask? Those earlier years investors who have stayed invested decades ago or those recent years investors? Those earlier years investors who have been laughing to the bank year on year for a long time may now tell you this ... Okay lah. Now earn lesser la! Our investment outcome is always relative to the time frame of reference.
No more eating snake during office hours e.g. extended tea breaks and lunch breaks, chatting in forums and cboxes, surfing the web for financial stuff, etc Actually as employees; eating snake is quite shiok as you still get paid for it!
1. Kep Corp (Still have) 2. SembCorp (Still have) 3. SPC (Delisted) 4. ComfortDelgro (All sold) 5. DBS (Still have) 6. Semb Marine (All sold) 7. Noble (Still have) 8. Kep Capital (Delisted) 9. Olam (All sold) 10. ST Engg (All sold) This ComfortDelgro is NOT the last comfort anymore so Mr. Market has to give out big discount to attract new buyers! It is getting interesting now!
"A margin of safety is achievedwhen securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.” – Seth Klarman
How to achieve this kind of margin of safety? We can't possibly analyze it! Only Mr. Market will indicate to us over the next few market cycles whether we have achieved this kind of margin of safety.
Less analyzing. More investing - CW8888 Leave it to Mr. Market as he has the final call!
How many households married with kid(s)/kid(s) and dependent parents can accumulate from their saving to build investment portfolio of $500K to $1M to generate passive (investment) income of $3K to $5K per month? How long will it take for them to retire on investment portfolio? Do you think those investment bloggers in Singapore showing you large investment income fall on the left or right side of Medianhousehold income statistics? With that answer; what young investors should do to be on the right path on their investing journey?
With more young personal financial investment influencers coming on board the investment blogosphere. We are seeing this dilemma exhibited quite clearly in the cyber space! The wonder of compounding interests of additional 1.5% over the next 30 to 40 years in CPF SA to secure retirement well in advance vs the potent power of investment return in CPFIS across market cycles. This potent power of investment return in CPFIS can generate either gigantic return or destroy wealth. With CPFIS, CPF members may be better off doing Bar Bell investing approach across market cycles by earning compounding interests at 2.5% safely during peace times and when opportunity arises; they take higher risk and moves over to the other end of the Barbell for investing return. Of course; it all depends on your investing skills; but have you put in 10,000 hours before the next opportunity arises? BUT; many CPF members may wrongly treat CPFIS as money paper; and hence have no patience for investment return. Since Government have already put in place hard limit as risk control and management i.e. 65% at 2.5% and 35% from negative to positive return so the ball is at our court. May be this is why we have this dilemma. Uncle8888 also once had this dilemma. But; somehow he has managed to overcome it since he was very determined to become an active competent investor over market cycles even though he didn't have 30 years ahead of him as he was already 40+; but he still managed to kill his dilemma! He has to arrive richer to retire earlier or poorer to continue to work until dead!
The most famous, of course, is the legendary financial guru Warren Buffett, whose company, Berkshire Hathaway, sits pretty on a war chest of US$70 billion (S$94 billion) as at the end of last year.
His partner, fellow billionaire Charlie Munger, reputedly advised investors: "There are worse situations than drowning in cash and sitting, sitting, sitting. I remember when I wasn't awash in cash - and I don't want to go back.
And they are hardly outliers in that sense. A study of nearly two million households with investment portfolios of US$3 million or more in 2015 by United States Trust Company, one of oldest trustee companies in the US, showed that eight of every 100 respondents held at least 50 per cent of their portfolios in cash. A further 14 in 100 had at least 25 per cent in cash, while another 40 out of 100 held between 10 and 24 per cent of their portfolios in cash. CW8888 For the rich, there may be no urgency of cash flow to meet yearly household expenses so it is NOT the case of financial independence when passive income just exceeds household expenses with the need of staying mainly invested for investment income.
Uncle8888 after reading this in the investment bogosphere ...
At the same time, I do get feedback from more savvy active investors telling me REITs are financial engineered vehicles, they are low return, a dumping ground for parent companies. We should steer clear of them. Are these savvy investors correct? I think the primary basis of sustainable investment is adequate respect given to price you pay versus the intrinsic value. Saturday, 27 April 2013 Read? REITs. Simply explained! (6) - Revisit
Caution alone is not an investment strategy, so Marks penned a follow-up memo last week to give investors six options for how to invest in a low-return world:
1. Invest as you always have and expect your historic returns. 2. Invest as you always have and settle for today’s low returns. 3. Reduce risk to prepare for a correction and accept still lower returns. 4. Go to cash at near-zero return and wait for a better environment. 5. Increase risk in pursuit of higher returns. 6. Put more into special niches and special investment managers. (CW8888: Why many will fail at market timing?) 3. Reduce risk to prepare for a correction and accept still lower-returns. Pros: Reducing risk can give you valuable dry powder to take advantage of future opportunities. The hope is that you can put money to work at lower valuations or higher yields if and when things eventually go wrong. Cash is a position even if it doesn’t pay much in terms of interest income at the moment. Reducing risk offers optionality.
Cons: You could be waiting a long time to put your money back to work, so extreme patience is required. In the latest streak the S&P 500 Index hasn’t had a double-digit decline since February 2016. There have been no 5 percent downturns since June 2016. And it’s been 10 months since the last 3 percent correction. Timing the market is also a gateway investment to a cash addiction. There are always good reasons to wait for another buying opportunity. When stocks go up you tell yourself you’ll wait for a correction, and when a correction comes you tell yourself you’ll wait until they drop just a little further. There are no all-clears when things are going down, so you must incorporate rules to guide your actions. Going to cash also means you have to be right twice -- once when you get out and again when you get back in. There are no right or wrong answers here, but Marks’ idea of combining different strategies seems like a prudent form of risk management. Investing is a form of regret minimization, so a diversification by strategy is an intelligent way to minimize the probability of making the wrong choice. Read? Separating the Dos From the Don'ts of Investing
Four bank accounts are for ease of tracking and monthly downloading of Excel file; and particularly the Investment account is important for us to PHYSICALLY and MENTALLY separate our investment from all other needs and wants. This setup will help us to ride the emotional roller coaster rides across market cycles without worrying too much about meeting living expenses. Uncle8888 over the last 17 years hasn't touch a single cent in his investment account; but next year onward will be different as he is now a retiree depending on sustainable retirement income for life! Where are the money taps to fund four bank accounts?
Firstly; max out CPFIS and stay fully invested before considering HDB housing loan as option. In later years can sell stocks and refund back to CPF OA to service housing loan when necessary. (CW8888 : Hmm ... really arh. Sound like retail investing by CPF members over market cycles is not that difficult hor OR you are damn lucky at the right time!) Secondly; max out transfer from CPF OA to CPF SA. (CW8888 : Still ok!)
Uncle8888 has received one-time rebate to offset his premium payable for 2017 renewal due to ElderShield claims have been lower than projected in last 5 years of the scheme. Uncle8888 and his spouse actually don't need ElderShield; but they didn't opt out since Eldershield is social insurance pool. Just treat as charity contributions to pool and hopefully help to make it sustainable.
Once married or worse married with kid(s); we are never that one and ONLY person. Your spouse doesn't have your DNA. Your children also don't inherit 100% of your DNA! How to be "miserly" without any whispers of unhappiness?
Stay single! Five days no change of underwear. Nobody care!
Singapore Man of LeisureSeptember 10, 2017 at 6:53 PM
Sillyinvestor, Have you noticed in documentaries about Master Chefs or Ah Ma's home cooking, the way they cooked is "agar agar" and a bit any-o-how? Fusion this, mix-and-match that? But for cooking class programs for beginners, everything is measured in EXACT proportions, French is French, Cantonese is Cantonese, Korean is Korean? Step by step and no short-cuts (even though there are)!
How many audiences believe they can learn by watching agar agar Ah Ma's home cooking and then can cook the similar meals close to that standard? You can even watch many times on slow motion. You may not even guess or get the amount of agar agar right! You may have to cook together with Ah Ma a few more time under supervision by Ah Ma to get it ABOUT RIGHT! For same reason; many will flock to those have secret recipes with measurement and clear description. No agar agar hor! Same for investing. Many are willing to pay for Secret Manual with formula and worksheets as measuring tools. Who have the time and patience to listen to agar agar investors? Too difficult to understand! What is agar agar?
Unlike those days of sword fighting; they couldn't purchase those secret manual of sword fighting or supreme kung fu to become the best sword-man or sword-woman; or pugilistic master. No matter how much Gold or Silver they could afford. These Secret Manuals were not for SALE! They had to either steal; rob or became the most beloved disciples to get those Manual. But; now you can easily purchase these secret manual to become better sword-man or sword-woman in the stock market if NOT the best. You got $X,XXX to spare? No? Never mind. You can get cheaper e-manual at $XXX through e-learning to become somehow lesser master. Self-learning mah!
For a long, long time; Uncle8888 has seen many time on top of this dry-rising main inlet Red cabinet is a plastic bag of food stuff; or sometime a bag of fruits like oranges, apples, etc. Who are they putting these items and for whom?
These days Uncle8888 is sibei eng and seen loitering somewhere doing people watching while surfing the cyberworld on his mobile to consume up his data plan and don't waste it.
Who place these items? The mystery was solved today! The item was placed there by one senior woman who was walking with her little grandson(?). When she turned the corner and walked back to the other side of the flat; Uncle8888 looked at her and she looked back as she might have noticed Uncle8888 was watching her action.
Next, Uncle8888 was wondering who will take this item? He stayed longer there to find out who? One old lady staying in the block checked the item in the plastic bag and immediately took it away with her!
Is this an anonymous act of charity of food distribution to anyone care to take the gift? What do you think?
Most investment bloggers in Singapore don't seen to mention it! How come like that? Adding second parameter will make yield comparison tedious and difficult to shout headline number to attract people by big number? Read? Second Public Talk (4)
sleepydevil 7 September 2017 at 13:37 Hi KPO, Thank you for the kind advises and motivation !! :) I'd love to secretly play some PSP too... those days with PSP... But nonetheless, I believe you're still on task and working diligently towards your goals too with CZM :p
KPO9 September 2017 at 11:41 Haha. You can find a gf to accumulate wealth with you too. Double the speed ;) When Uncle8888 read it. LOL! What is the secret to getting rich? 1. Born Rich 2. Marry Rich 3. Start your business 4. Climb Corporate Ladder
“Once upon a time, there was a wise man who used to go to the ocean to do his writing. He had a habit of walking on the beach before he began his work.
One day, as he was walking along the shore, he looked down the beach and saw a human figure moving like a dancer. He smiled to himself at the thought of someone who would dance to the day, and so, he walked faster to catch up.
As he got closer, he noticed that the figure was that of a young man, and that what he was doing was not dancing at all. The young man was reaching down to the shore, picking up small objects, and throwing them into the ocean.
He came closer still and called out "Good morning! May I ask what it is that you are doing?"
The young man paused, looked up, and replied "Throwing starfish into the ocean."
"I must ask, then, why are you throwing starfish into the ocean?" asked the somewhat startled wise man.
To this, the young man replied, "The sun is up and the tide is going out. If I don't throw them in, they'll die."
Upon hearing this, the wise man commented, "But, young man, do you not realize that there are miles and miles of beach and there are starfish all along every mile? You can't possibly make a difference!"
At this, the young man bent down, picked up yet another starfish, and threw it into the ocean. As it met the water, he said, "It made a difference for that one.”
Don't laugh or poke at some Buy and Hold folks for their passive income. Just one time effort on clicking on the Buy button and many years of passive income of dividends, interests on dividends and then interests on interests. See the effect of compounding interests in CPF OA through CPFIS's yearly dividends contribution. Ah Gong's near risk free money in CPF OA as Uncle8888 has read some folks in the cyber world are smiling when they are voluntarily topping up CPF OA for this 2.5% compounding interests. How about through CPFIS? Better right? Compounding Interests in CPF OA through CPFIS = Interests on dividends + Interests on interests. Position 1 : $1.32 on 26 Mar 2004 Compounding interests over 16 years on investment cost = 120% or Average yearly yield on investment cost = 7% Total yield with dividends, interests on dividends and interests on interests for 16 years = 599% Average yearly yield on investment cost = 37% Position 2 : $3.22 on 18 Sep 2001 Compounding interests over 13 years on investment cost = 81% or Average yearly yield on investment cost = 5.8% Total yield with dividends, interests on dividends and interests on interests for 13 years = 256% Average yearly yield on investment cost = 18%
Singapore Man of Leisure7 September 2017 at 12:01:00 GMT+8
Have fun at your talk!
I guess your message will resonate with those who have an "Ah Q" bias - "It is about the option with the capability to slow down and letting your peers get ahead of you."
Maybe its my DNA or what. I tend to see things from "land owner" perspective.
I read Rich Dad Poor Dad as plugging the benefits of being a "business owner".
That's why MLM marketers often give this book to their underlings, opps, I meant downlines!
Its like ink blots; we see what we want to see.
The poor "employee" CEO with his multi-million salary and bonuses will probably read Rich Dad Poor Dad with a wry smile and chuckle!
(1) a wry smile and chuckle!
Do you have an ideal job? I believe many don't; but the job still provide a steady stream of income and help you to make a living and pay bills. From CEO's Mouth themselves
Do you think that CEO is an ideal job? My ex-boss was a very ambitious man and worked his way up the corporate ladder and one day was head-hunted to become CEO of another company.
At one Chinese New Year gathering of old colleagues, he said that how he wish he could retire early and doesn't have to face the stupid board?
Read?The Real World A wry smile and chuckle probably happen at every pay day; but not necessary at every year end review and performance appraisal when these CEOs are NOT business owner with 100% shares as Pte Ltd. When CEOs have boss or bosses who will set KPIs; do performance review and performance appraisal for their bonuses and salary adjustment; they are never business owner but employees or self-employed. When they didn't meet the Mark; they get f.... for not performing. When their ego are badly hurt then they may be thinking of getting out of rat race or retire! Another CEO of listed company in SGX said publicly at SIAS seminar that he has regretted taking his company public. You can guess why?
(2) Business Owner That is the dream of many day dreamers! The fact is only few of us will become CEO or business owner! FEW!!! Don't confuse business owner and self-employed. Business owner can employ hire guns do the heavy lifting while they just need to lift the net profits. Self-employed have to do heavy lifting themselves! ESBI Why Investment? Can we become competent investor? Why not? Many, many, many more can become competent investors. We just need more and more capital and our account size really matters. Capital comes from our saving through our earned income! That is why more and more people are seeking financial independence!
The Top 3 Most “Overrated” Finance Books The most-mentioned overrated book by far (and it wasn’t even close) was Rich Dad, Poor Dad. What’s really interesting, though, is that it had roughly the same number of “favorite” votes, and so finished near the top of that list as well, as you saw before. Of all the books we’ve seen, this is the one that sits squarely in the “you love it or you hate it” category. CW8888 If you have read this book many years back and still hate or doubt it! Come and lim kopi! You may have missed the idea behind this book to seek financial independence or financial freedom; and get out of Rat Race either as employee or self-employee as early as possible. Getting of Rat Race is NOT retiring from you day job. It is about the option with the capability to slow down and letting your peers get ahead of you. Let them spin the wheel harder; and relatively you can slow down; but the team as whole is still ahead. Bosses are happier when come to year end appraisal as you have made their jobs easier. Over the years; Uncle8888 has many kopi sessions with some doubters or haters e.g. many of them are his ex- colleagues, suppliers; friends and cyber kakis. He illustrated what he has learnt from the idea of this book - Rich Dad. Poor Dad. It is NOT about his Method! It is about Assets and Cash Flow and Uncle8888 illustrated the idea from this book with his Wealth Formula. Read? Blog Posts related to Rich Dad . Poor Dad
In the next public talk; he also has one slide ...
Read? Rich Man, Poor Man RULE 3: RICH MAN, POOR MAN: In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN'T NEED THE MARKETS. I can't begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one's mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one's money.
The wealthy investor doesn't need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. (CW8888's Three Taps Solution Model for sustainable retirement income for life so that he doesn't have to feel the urge to stay invested for dividend income and he can afford to wait) He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money market funds, stocks and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to "make money" in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds.
When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks.(CW8888: Sad that he only knows how to do this. Some more just SGX stocks) When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the "give away" table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait.He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly.The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn't mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience). (CW8888's Three Taps Solution Model for sustainable retirement income for life so that he doesn't have to feel the urge to stay invested for dividend income and he can afford to wait)
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to "make money." And in return he's always pressuring the market to "do something" for him. But sadly, the market isn't interested.
The true test of defensiveness is after the next few market cycles and you realize that you will never and ever lose your hard earned capital on those stocks and still receiving cash flow from these stocks. They are truly defensive stocks.
You cannot possibly analyze defensive stocks as defensiveness by nature are born out of market cycles.
Less Analyzing. More Investing - CW8888
It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit -
Jessie Livermore (1877 to 1940)
How to nimble?
In Investing; your account size really matters! - CW8888
Uncle, chun bo?
Can you name the investment blogger(s) who pom pi pi and shout loud in the investment blogosphere with just $30K investment portfolio?
I am 61 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee.
Single household income since 1995 with three children. Eldest son and daughter are now working and youngest son still in his 2nd year uni in SUTD.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I am now executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038.
Last updated: 3 Sep 2017
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