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Sunday, 13 December 2015

US oil settles at $35.62 a barrel, plunges over 10% for week

U.S. oil futures settled lower on Friday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oversupply of crude could worsen next year.

Brent and U.S. crude's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell as much as 5 percent on the day and 12 percent on the week as mild pre-winter weather and a plummeting U.S. stock market added to the toll on oil prices.

Oil traders and analysts were perplexed by the intensity of the decline, coming exactly a week after Dec. 4 meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all but abandoned price support for crude after removing its production ceiling in an oversupplied.

Crude awakeningU.S. oil rig count (monthly average) and crude production (in thousands of barrels a day).Rig countDaily productionFeb 2011May 2011Aug 2011Nov 2011Feb 2012May 2012Aug 2012Nov 2012Feb 2013May 2013Aug 2013Nov 2013Feb 2014May 2014Aug 2014Nov 2014Feb 2015May 2015Aug 2015Nov 201550006000700080009000100005007501000125015001750Baker Hughes (rig count); U.S. Energy Information Administration (production)

The IEA, which advises developed nations on energy, warned that demand growth was starting to slow.
"Consumption is likely to have peaked in the third quarter and demand growth is expected to slow to a still-healthy 1.2 million bpd (barrels per day) in 2016, as support from sharply falling oil prices begins to fade," the energy watchdog said in its monthly oil report.

Crude prices have fallen with little restraint since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' meeting last week. Data also showed OPEC pumped 31.7 million bpd in November, more oil than any month since late 2008.

Banks such as Goldman Sachs have said oil could fall to $20 a barrel if the world runs out of capacity to store unwanted supply.

"The WTI and Brent markets are trending at this point with no real interest from anyone to buy," said Scott Shelton, broker and commodities specialist at ICAP in Durham, North Carolina.

"The forecast remains incredibly warm for the U.S. That's a large drag on demand and means less demand for distillates and more for export, which drags down the rest of the world as well."

U.S. weather forecasts call for warmer-than-normal temperatures through Christmas that would curb heating demand, boosting U.S. gasoline futures higher than heating oil prices in December for the first time in at least five years.

Gasoline's premium to heating oil for the January contracts widened as the heating oil contract slumped almost 6 percent while gasoline fell 0.4 percent.

1 comment:

  1. Joseph's 7 Year Cycle is about to play out in the oil market. The worst is nearer to its end soon.


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