2015 Investment Performance Report

Read? 9M 2015 Investment Performance Report

A Goal-based Approach Investing Strategy 

Uncle8888 has adopted a Goal-based Approach investing strategy by setting for himself a 10-year progressive Goal Targets to be achieved for each year from 2012 to 2021.

Our investing journey is not Horse Race or Rat Race where we compete against others.  No! It is our investment Marathon Race where we set our own pace and compete against ourselves to win our own race.


Year 4: Full Year 2015 Result for Tap No 3 (Cash Flow from Investment Portfolio)

Achieved 33.0% against 34% of 2021 Goal Targets.

Investment Portfolio XIRR
 
Track, Measure and Visualize!

Without doing it; how to revise investing strategies and to improve year-on-year investing performance?

Investment Portfolio's XIRR includes all investable cash plus the current stocks value at market closing price as on 31 Dec 2015.

Since one year ago: -8.6%
Since 1 Nov 2008: -1.5%
Since 1 Jan 2003: +7.6%
Since 1 Jan 2000: +7.1%

 The reality of riding market cycles of Bull and Bear
 

 




This reality cannot be anyhow extrapolated in any form of theoretical knowledge including the most popular form of compounding interests - the Eight Wonder of the World.

No. You can't!

Embracing Three Taps Solutions to Retirement Income For Life Model

 









Uncle8888's Wealth's Formula:

Wealth = Asset Value + Cash Flow

Where Sustainable Cash Flow = Tap 1 + Tap 2 + Tap 3

and volatile market pricing of Asset Value becoming less significant.

Since Tap No 3 is enough to supply the liquidity needs; Tap No 1 will remain shut.

Uncle8888's Tap 1 can sustain up to 2037 and covering up to 89% of his past highest annual household expenses since 2002 using asset-down strategy when it is necessary to supplement any shortfall in his Tap 3 (Investment Income)

Now, he will have a peace of mind of passing over these non-market volatile assets to his spouse, an investing idiot.

 
 

16 Years of doing short-term trading and long-term investing in SGX. The Records!!! (2)

 Read? 16 Years of doing short-term trading and long-term investing in SGX. The Records!!!

From 1 Jan 2000 to 31 Dec 2015, Uncle8888 has spent 16 years in SGX local stock market and has kept this pile of 9.X cm of records.

How much worth of dollar value of stock transactions (i.e. both Bought and Sold stock transactions) has he generated for his brokers with this pile of records?



 


 











Total worth of dollar value of stock transactions (Bought and Sold transactions) generated to his brokers over 16 years = $12,422,239 

or 

Average of $776,390 per year.

His 2015 Household Expenses When His Three Children Don't Eat His Money!!!

Happy New Year 2016!

With two working adult children and one is doing his NS, 2015 is a special year for Uncle8888 as this is the year that his three children don't eat much of his money. He will be able to estimate how much is the yearly household expenses for a couple like during his retirement.


His household expenses in 2015 has significantly reduced; but next year onward it will re-bound back as his youngest will ORD and continue with his uni study at SUTD.

 

Losing Is Part Of The Game. No Shame!

How often do you hear it from preview seminars?

How Does He Know The Right Answer While Many Have Given The Reasonable Right But Wrong Answer? (2)

Read? How Does He Know The Right Answer While Many Have Given The Reasonable Right But Wrong Answer?

The Moral of the Story when you are retail investors ....

We are like most students we will know what is the reasonable right answer to invest. It is either through FA, TA, or combing both FA and TA or by following closely your trusted sources. 

We trust our analysis. 

We trust other experts' analysis. 

We trust our sources but we still put in effort and time to verify. 

When we poke them! They will tell you this. 

I DO MY HOMEWORK HOR! NOT BLINDLY FOLLOW! OK!

There will be plenty of reasonable right answers in investing but just few right answers that are coming right out from our own investing experience. 

Look back to our past years of investing experience and find them.

How many reasonable right answers that you have guessed; but Mr. Market said they are not RIGHT.





 

Keppel Offshore & Marine secures contracts worth S$125 million from repeat customers

Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M)'s local and overseas subsidiaries continue to win strong support from repeat customers by securing four contracts worth a total of about S$125 million.

In Singapore, Keppel O&M's wholly-owned subsidiary Keppel Shipyard Ltd (Keppel Shipyard) secured two conversion contracts - the first is for a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Floating Storage Unit (FSU) vessel awarded by Armada Floating Gas Storage Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bumi Armada Berhad (Bumi Armada); the second is for a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel awarded by Yinson Production (West Africa) Pte Ltd (Yinson), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yinson Holdings Berhad.

Work on the LNG FSU conversion for Bumi Armada is scheduled to be completed in 3Q 2016. Upon completion, the LNG FSU vessel will operate at the Delimara LNG Regasification Terminal in Malta.

As for the FPSO conversion for Yinson, work is expected to commence in 1Q 2016. The work scope includes modification work, new equipment installation complete with associated piping, electrical and instrumentation systems as well as installation and integration of the FPSO process topsides. Upon completion, the FPSO will be deployed to the Offshore Cape Three Point block located in offshore Ghana.

Mr Chow Yew Yuen, Chief Executive Officer of Keppel O&M, said, "Even in challenging market conditions, we are glad to be the choice yard for operators. This is the 14th conversion/upgrading project that we are undertaking for Bumi Armada. It is also their first LNG FSU conversion project and we are proud to be their trusted partner again. The confidence shown in us is a reflection of Keppel's proven track record in delivering quality products competitively, with high standards of safety and to customers' satisfaction.

"We are also grateful for the opportunity to support Yinson again on a conversion project. Having worked with them on an FPSO project in 2012, we will be able to leverage the past experience and close relationship to fast track this project to meet their requirements."

As for Keppel O&M's overseas yards, Keppel FELS Brasil SA's (Keppel FELS Brasil) BrasFELS shipyard in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, secured a FPSO integration contract awarded by MODEC Offshore Production Systems (Singapore) Pte Ltd. (MODEC), while Caspian Shipyard Company LLC (Caspian Shipyard Company) in Baku, Azerbaijan, secured a barge enhancement contract awarded by BP Exploration (Shah Deniz) Limited (BP), operator of the Shah Deniz gas field development.

For MODEC's contract, BrasFELS will be carrying out integration and commissioning works on the FPSO vessel, Cidade de Caraguatatuba MV27. Cidade de Caraguatatuba MV27, which is to be deployed in the Lapa field, Santos Basin, Brazil, will depart from Keppel Shipyard and arrive at BrasFELS in 2Q 2016. In the past five years, BrasFELS has successfully completed five FPSO projects safely and ahead of schedule, of which three were for companies affiliated to MODEC.

For BP's contract, Caspian Shipyard Company will be strengthening the steel structure of the hull of STB-1 Vessel, a purpose-built jacket transportation and launch barge. This is the third time that Caspian Shipyard Company has been chosen to carry out refurbishment or enhancement works for STB-1 Vessel. Once the hull strengthening work is completed, STB-1 Vessel will be deployed to transport and launch two jackets for the Stage 2 development of the Shah Deniz field.

Mr Chow said, "With our wide spectrum of offshore and marine solutions, we are able to serve the various needs of the industry, be it in oil production or offshore support services. Leveraging our long track record in delivering projects on time and within budget, we will continue building on the good relationships formed over the years with our existing global network of customers to support them in their operations."

The above contracts are not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

- End -

CW8888:

New order book in 2015 is lower than in 2008 so this time is worse off.

Did you see the similarity from 2006 to 2008 vs. 2013 t0 2015?

Measuring Our Investment Portfolio?

How often does Uncle8888 receive email query or request on portfolio measurement from his blog's silent readers?


The last two queries ...

28 Dec and 6 Sep 2015


Read? Education - Trading - Measuring


Measuring is still alive. He He!





 

How Does He Know The Right Answer While Many Have Given The Reasonable Right But Wrong Answer?

Nice article from the cyber world:
 
A cruise ship met with an incident at sea, on the ship was a pair of couple, after having made their way to the lifeboat, they realized that there was only space for one person left. 

At this moment, the man pushed the woman behind him and jumped onto the lifeboat himself.

The lady stood on the sinking ship and shouted one sentence to her husband.

The teacher stopped and asked, "What do you think she shouted?"

Most of the students excitedly answered, "I hate you! I was blind!"

Now, the teacher noticed a boy who was silent throughout, she got him to answer and he replied, "Teacher, I believe she would have shouted - Take care of our child!"

The teacher was surprised, asking "Have you heard this story before?"

The boy shook his head, "Nope, but that was what my mum told my dad before she died to disease".

The teacher lamented, "The answer is right".

The cruise sunk, the man went home and brought up their daughter single-handedly.

Many years later after the death of the man, their daughter found his diary while tidying his belongings.

It turns out that when parents went onto the cruise ship, the mother was already diagnosed with a terminal illness. 

At the critical moment, the father rushed to the only chance of survival. 

He wrote in his diary, "How I wished to sink to the bottom of the ocean with you, but for the sake of our daughter, I can only let you lie forever below the sea alone".

The story is finished, the class was silent. 

The teacher knows that the student has understood the moral of the story, that of the good and the evil in the world, there are many complications behind them which are hard to understand. 

Which is why we should never only focus on the surface and judge others without understanding them first.


CW8888:

The Moral of The Story from the only student who gave the right answer.

In life, many right answers will be found and come from our own life experience. It is no different from investing. Ask the right person for the right answer. How do they know?


The boy shook his head, "Nope, but that was what my mum told my dad before she died to disease".

The teacher lamented, "The answer is right".

Singapore Man of Leisure24 December 2015 at 21:27:00 GMT+8

 

Sometimes its better to ask those coming down the mountain than those who are still climbing the mountain ;)

Asset Return: Home (Unrealized Capital Gains from Government Subsidized 4-Room HDB Flat) vs. Stocks (Local stocks in SGX)

Based on similar unit's selling price in the same neighbour in Hougang Ave 10 near Hougang MRT station:


(1) Since the date of purchase i.e. over 30 years, XIRR over capital gain is about 6.5%


(2) Since the completion of 5-year HDB loan i.e. over 25 years, XIRR over capital gain is about 7.8%



Current stock portfolio performance since inception in Jan 2000 as of 24 Dec 2015 market closing price, i.e. over 16 years, XIRR is about 7.1%



The nice thing coming from Home as an Asset is we are profiting from it without sweating for it or having nightmares. LOL!



 

HOW TO RETIRE? (6)

Read? HOW TO RETIRE? (5)

Again at one colleague's new born 100th day party, Uncle888 was asked how could he possibly spent his retirement life more meaningfully as 60 is not that old to retire in current job market.

For most of us, our job have been defining our life since the day we have started working. We are generally known by our Job Title!

One thing is certain, he will have more time to focus on his personal wellness and then wait to recognize the next open door.

“When one door closes, another opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the one which has opened for us.” - Alexander Graham Bell

Uncle8888 has chosen to close this door so that he may have the opportunity to see the next open door. The next open door may not necessary be the path for more financial gains or benefits; but it has to be something worth doing it.

Read? Earned Income From Human Asset vs. Create Wealth From the stock market (SGX)

Tracking Your Monthly and Yearly Household Expenses?

Uncle88888 doesn't use any budgeting software. He also dislikes the hassle of tracking every single detail of expenses. 

He made his tracking KISS! 

He just need to know how much is his cash outflow per month and how much per year and then he will know how much is enough to to reach the edge of his financial independence state and from there how to build sustainable retirement income for life at 2.5% inflationary rate with assets draw-down strategy.

Read? Two Bank Accounts? No, You may need Four! - (4)


With his Household Expenses Tracking MS Excel worksheet and one dedicated Bank Account to hold all his household expenses, he just needs less than 20 minutes per month to download the bank statement, copy and paste, and then manually update each category of items of expenses.

See the three images ...

On Your Net Worth Calculation, Did You Include Cash Flow Yield For Each Respective Asset In Your Balance Sheet?

Many of us will know how to compute our net worth i.e. Assets and Liabilities.

Net Worth = Assets Value - Liabilities

But, are you aware of Wealth Formula?


Wealth = Assets Value + Cash Flow


In Uncle8888's Net Worth Balance Sheet, he included another column to capture the cash flow and cash flow yield per annum for each and every asset that is listed in his net worth balance sheet e.g. investment portfolio, CPF OA, SA, RA, FDs, cash, and etc

We will have to manage our future cash flow well to avoid having to sell our assets during market low to meet future liquidity needs. 

Once we have locked in negative return  through these realized losses; it will become harder for us to break even and recover with a lesser portfolio. Simple Maths!


On Cash Flow

Since every asset in the Balance sheet is tracked for its forecast or estimated cash flow, he will be able to conservatively forecast or estimate his total cash flow over the next 2 to 3 years.

Buy Slowly But Still Lose!!! So How?

How often do we hear investment bloggers shouting that they are buying slowly?

We may buy slowly but we can still lose!

The last 4 stocks were bought slowly; but they were bought at the wrong market timing so they are still losing till now!

Slow but not necessary steady.

 

 
 

Investment Portfolio Benchmarking Among The World's Well Known Investors

Uncle8888 was reading an article on Temasek's investment return in the cyber space. 

How did Temasek perform among the world's well known investors over the past decades?

Really that bad?


Highlighted in Pink is for Temasek's investment return over the past years.

How about CW8888?


Okay lah! 

At least CW8888 is not at the bottom of the table. 


  

Romance of retirement very much alive

A36, FORUM, ST, 25 Dec 2015

Uncle8888 agreed with the writer's view!

Uncle8888 has been reading books on retirement planning from  NLB to prepare for his own retirement. 

This is one of the better models that he has discovered so far ...


Read? Future Cash Flow For Retirement Life???


We shouldn't worry too much over asset-draw strategy as we certainly deserve to spend our own money in our lifetime and just leave behind whatever unspent. 


He is planning in terms of future Cash Flow for his retirement life without leaving lots of money not spent.

The sources of his future cash flow will come from:

1) An investment portfolio that is generating just 4% yield p.a. at flat rate and non compounding. It is far better to be conservative when planning for future.

2) Yearly partial asset drawn on CPF OA and cash FDs till the last withdrawal on 2036

3) CPF RA, SA, MA and cash of $XX, XXX as self insured fund for medical and health care and also covered by enhanced medical shield. Here he will assume zero interest growth as it is very hard to predict future draw-down and even harder to calculate future interests growth. Zero is an accurate prediction. LOL!

4) Leaving behind a fully paid asset called home and investment portfolio for selling as guarantee "profits."
 

Using actuarial present value of his future cash flow (but, excluding the asset value of his investment portfolio and 4-rm HDB flat near Hougang MRT station) and total liabilities @ 2.5% year inflationary rate.



Latest update:

STI : Since Santa No Come in Dec 2015; then we shall wait for Capricon in Jan 2016?

If Capricorn no come in Jan 2016, what did we see from KISS STI chart?

Is CPF Accrued Interest for our housing loan increasing and we have to pay back one day when we sell our house?

Before 55 ....



 





No. Once we reach 55, this CPF accrued interest is game over!

 

Wealth Formula : On Cash Flow Part - Counting Interests!!!

Wealth = Assets Value + Cash Flow


Counting interests is not bad too when we are 55 and above!



Now, Uncle8888 has realized during this prolong period of bearish market environment that counting his interests for his non-market volatile assets is not stressful. Bulk of these expected interests can be easily counted during his lifetime. 

With the past highest annual household expenses since 2001 is already known, it just required simple Maths to count future interests receivable and assets draw-down to meet the highest expected annual household expenses at 2.5% inflation rate p.a. No other additional or complicated evaluation tool is required.




Currently, his Tap 1 has cash flow capacity to manage up to 89% of his past highest annual household expenses at 2.5% inflation rate p.a. using assets draw-down and future interests receivable strategy.

Unless ugly Black Swan happens, it should be quite comfortable for the rest of his lifetime on Earth.