As Retail Investor Do You Stress Test Your Investment Portfolio???

Read? "How Singapore Manages its Reserves"


MAS employs a comprehensive range of stress tests to assess the risks to the portfolio on an ongoing basis and establish whether the portfolio remains resilient to potential tail risk events over the medium term.

Three types of stress tests are conducted:

Historical: Shocks are applied to the portfolio using asset price movements seen in historical stressed episodes, such as the Global Financial Crisis, 2000 dot-com bust, 1994 bond market selloff, etc.
Vulnerability-based: The portfolio is subject to hypothetical scenarios which stress in turn each of the portfolio’s risk factors such as equity, interest rate, credit, inflation, and foreign exchange.
Thematic: These are forward-looking stress tests and are designed by taking into account prevailing market conditions and potential risk events on the horizon.
Depending on the stress test results, MAS will consider appropriate responses and portfolio adjustments when needed.

The risk management framework is reviewed on a regular basis to ensure it remains fit-for-purpose.

What Is The Real Cause Of Low CPF Payout In Some Mederka Generation???

Read? Josephine Teo’s data of Singapore Elderly’s Low CPF Payout is Depressing. Still, it meets the CPF’s Expectations of how much in our CPF we Should have


Hmm ...

Read? Chop Fingers liao!!! (2)

Read? More posts related to AFC

Have You Took The National Steps Challenge Season 4?

Read? National Steps Challenge Season 4 (2)


Uncle8888 is very late to this Game; but it still better late than never!

Tracker is free and still can collect voucher while walking as daily exercise. Okay leh!

Completed Tier 1 MPVA and earned another $5 NTUC voucher!

Total rewards from HPB : $20

Kopi kosong money!

How Soon Should You Start Investing Your CPFIS?

Read? How Soon Should You Start Investing Your CPFIS And SRS?


Read? Did CPF Savers Really Lose Out To AVERAGE CPFIS Investor?


How soon?

How do you know you already have competency to beat 2.5% compounding interests Wonder?

See for yourself!

Average CPFIS return from 2011 to 2018.

That guy mentioned in the earlier blog post is 6 years into investing his CPFIS i.e. starting in 2013.

Here is the truth and fact:

How much opportunity cost did CPFIS market timer really lose out from 2011 to 2018 waiting for market crash in SGX?

How Soon Should You Start Investing Your CPFIS And SRS?

We often hear from those "Gurus" or commercially vested bloggers. Start early and let compounding works wonder for you!

Chun bo?

Here in this blog, Uncle8888 will share with you what real life retail investors had shared with him.

In the investment blogophere; you are most likely to hear successful investing stories or how much dividend income they are receiving. Oh! How tough can it be?

Very seldom do we hear about pain in the ass on their real life investing experience on the ground.


One more real life story:

Saving pennies on his tax relief in SRS; but losing dollars in investing his SRS.

He is not happy with CPF OA 2.5% compound interests; but losing X times 2.5% negative compounding return in his CPFIS.

Six years into investing his SRS and CPFIS; and also he has spent his time and effort reading many investment books and daily visits to investing forum e.g. currently IN (Hmm.. it is more like TN) to improve his investing knowledge and skill

You can judge for yourself.

Investing is tough as we will never believe that we can lose so much when we started investing. Right?

Read? Minimum You Have To Go Through One Full Market Cycle: Bull-Bear-Bull or Bear-Bull-Bear. If Not Don't Talk Too Loud!

Investing your CPFIS is even tougher. Why not happy with compounding interests of 2.5%?

Stewed Duck???

What is stewed duck?

Hmm ..

How is this stewed duck different from Teochew Braised duck or 潮州卤鸭 ?

 Okay .. must try!

 Arh .. instead of kway chap type of kway in soup form; it is dry kway teow!

 $5.50 + $0.70 = $6.20

cpf 1m google search

Hmm .. Top google search and even beating dollarsandsense. 

Hee hee!

FIRE Is That Easy AS We Have Thought

Real People who have tried FIRE or manage to really FIRE!


Case 1 : Just after three weeks of retirement, he was back to work. Lucky his vacancy was not filled and he got back his old day job.

Read? You think it is so easy to retire early???


Case 2 : He took one year no pay leave; but after three months he gave up and went back to work.

Case 3 : He took one year no pay leave and finally he realized that working routinely is still better than having to find activities to pass time.

Case 4 : She took 6 months no pay leave and went back to work to fulfill the one month notice for retirement. During her 6 months no pay leave; she managed to find some other activities to pass time and survived the six months test.

Case 5 : Last chat with him seems that he has finally came to term with boring. No more irregular heart beats that his previous job gave him!

Read? "Early" Retirement??? (2)

SGX (2)

Read? In The Market; There Is Always Buyers And Sellers

Wah!

BBs continue to buy SGX while retails are selling!

Read? SGX


Testing $8!

This should be psychological strong resistance!

National Steps Challenge Season 4 (2)

Read? National Steps Challenge Season 4


He received another two $5 NTUC voucher for completing Tier 2 - Steps Healthpoints.

Total rewards from HPB : $15

Now he has formalized his daily walk with statistics. LOL!

Did CPF Savers Really Lose Out To AVERAGE CPFIS Investor?

Read? Market decline drags CPFIS-included funds into losses in 2018

Assuming CPF SA, OA savers and AVERAGE CPFIS investors each has $100K on 1 Jan 2011

CPF Shifting Goal Posts. Did Merdeka Generation See It Coming???

Read? The Credibility a Stage Lends You

Quote : 

Naturally, his talk on CPF’s structural risk was also woefully inadequate. If he had been a Financial Advisor, he would be penalized or sacked. I’ve written on it a couple of times, like this one. 


CW8888:

Hmm ... What if Mr 1M65 is in the Merdeka Generation and he was shouting loud and clear on his 1M55 movement to those Merdeka peers who were in their 20s and 30s to top up their CPF to reach 1M55 and retire at 55 as millionaires. 

Remember those days in 1970s and 1980s; the official retirement age for Merdeka generation was 55 and CPF withdrawal at 55!

20 years later, those Merdeka generation folks who have listen to Mr 1M55 movement would scream or f.. him instead of thanking him big time!


Shifting CPF Goal Posts for Merdeka generation from 55 to 60 to 62 to 65!

Did Merdeka generation see it coming? NO? Right?

In those days in 1970s, Mr 1M55 might be shouting loud and clear ......

Top up your CPF to earn risk free 6.5% and let 8th wonder of the world compounding interests help you to reach 1M55! 

Top up liao. Mai tan!

See for yourself what happen after that!

Why like that?

Walan!

Did Merdeka generation tio screwed? No?

Government policies can change!

Government can also change in the future too!

Remember this Hokkien phase .. Kiang Jiu Jo, Mai Ge Kiang which means smart can already but don't  act to be too smart!

Hmm ...  Luckily, Mr 1M65 is not in Merdeka generation for his 1M55 movement!

Planning For Taiwan Round 5 - 10D9N in Apr 2019

10D9N: Xiao Liu Qiu (2N), Kaohsiung (1N), Green Island (2N), Chiayi (1N), Alishan (2N) and Kaohsiung (1N)

After Auntie8888 has hinted that it is about time to go for vacation; over the next few days, he would be busy scanning the cyber for tips. Same like investing???

Next to book flight to Taiwan!

Probably, one more last trip i.e. Round 6 for Taiwan and bye bye to Taiwan!

Market decline drags CPFIS-included funds into losses in 2018

FUNDS included in the CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS) posted losses in 2018, pulled down by a sharp downdraft in global markets towards the end of the year.

CW8888: We are still in Bull Run phase. No worry!

In The Market; There Is Always Buyers And Sellers

Look at the diagram!

Who are net buyers and net sellers?

BBs buy from Retails and BBs sell to Retails. 

Who are the Smart Money?

Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (5)

Read? Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (4)


Uncle8888 met him again when roaming the street of Orchard Rd. He is regular roamer except he is decently dressed with long pant and shoe unlike Uncle8888 in short and slippers. LOL!


Once kena 1997/1998 AFC storm; he chopped fingers and never touch any investing or lending of any kind. All investment and lending is nature is risky.

As he has plenty of free time as single; every month he hunts for better FD interests and renew his FDs. He not even interested in SSB as it is marketed as Bond! Bond is lending money! LOL!


He said he has more than enough to retire and will follow Uncle8888's foot steps to roam across the island since he is also strong walker himself!

To fight inflation; you just make sure you have plenty of bullets to fire!

Do everybody need to invest to fight inflation?

never risk getting caught short of cash

Berkshire will forever remain a financial fortress. In managing, I will make expensive mistakes of commission and will also miss many opportunities, some of which should have been obvious to me. At times, our stock will tumble as investors flee from equities. But I will never risk getting caught short of cash."


Don't poke me for parroting!

Uncle8888 will NOT risk getting caught short of cash like in 2009 again!

Saving, Lending and Investing (6)

Read? Saving, Lending and Investing (6)


SINGAPORE - The High Court has approved an application by embattled water treatment firm Hyflux and three of its subsidiaries for leave to convene a scheme meeting with all its creditors over its proposed restructuring.

It can now proceed with a scheme meeting on April 5 with unsecured creditors including noteholders and 29 banks, which make up one creditor class, as well as perpetual securities and preference shareholders, who make up another creditor class.

Under the reorganisation plan, filed with the High Court last week, some 34,000 registered holders of Hyflux perpetual securities and preference shares, which are owed $900 million, will receive a total of $27 million in cash and a 10.26 per cent share of the reorganised company.



CW8888:


This Hyflux has re-enforced Uncle8888' own belief in lending and investing.

As retail, we have control over lending and investing; till now he never believe in lending his money in hope of Return of Capital and get caught in the illusion of safety of money. 

In the market; by nature nothing is safe from predators wiping out helpless minority to enrich themselves!


Lehman Brothers minibond; and Hyflux Perf and Perp will go into History to show that no one can see that far into future to ensure safety of our money. At least in investing; there is still some hope for multi-baggers :-)

Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A, BRK-B) shareholders

Read? Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A, BRK-B) shareholders is out, and it’s different this time


CW8888: Walau! Buffet Warren now also looks at market pricing. Mr Market is always right! LOL! 

Where is the intrinsic value and value investing? LOL!

 No counting in percentage!


Long-time readers of our annual reports will have spotted the different way in which I opened this letter. For nearly three decades, the initial paragraph featured the percentage change in Berkshire’s per-share book value. It’s now time to abandon that practice.

The fact is that the annual change in Berkshire’s book value – which makes its farewell appearance on page 2 – is a metric that has lost the relevance it once had. Three circumstances have made that so. First, Berkshire has gradually morphed from a company whose assets are concentrated in marketable stocks into one whose major value resides in operating businesses. Charlie and I expect that reshaping to continue in an irregular manner. 

Second, while our equity holdings are valued at market prices, accounting rules require our collection of operating companies to be included in book value at an amount far below their current value, a mismark that has grown in recent years. 

Third, it is likely that – over time – Berkshire will be a significant repurchaser of its shares, transactions that will take place at prices above book value but below our estimate of intrinsic value. 

The math of such purchases is simple: Each transaction makes per-share intrinsic value go up, while per-share book value goes down. That combination causes the book-value scorecard to become increasingly out of touch with economic reality.


In future tabulations of our financial results, we expect to focus on Berkshire’s market price. Markets can be extremely capricious: Just look at the 54-year history laid out on page 2. Over time, however, Berkshire’s stock price will provide the best measure of business performance.

Your Money Or Your Life???

It Is NOT Buy And Hold That Made Money In The Stock Market

Never mistaken!

It is NOT Buy and Hold!

Buy and hold may be just taking Panadols to ease your heartache and hopefully over long periods of taking Panadols you are immune! Pain no more!

Those who made money from Time in the Market is that they are "lucky" in market timing or having beginner's luck! 

Buy, Right and Hold and then smiling every time when they received CDP statement!

This is joyful investing where you are getting cheerful eggs instead of bitter Panadols!

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway loses more than $3 billion in single day on Kraft Heinz plunge

Read?Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway loses more than $3 billion in single day on Kraft Heinz plunge


Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is set to lose more than $3 billion in a single day after Kraft Heinz revealed a string of disappointing news.

Stock of the packaged food giant, whose products include Heinz Tomato Ketchup and Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, plunged more than 24 percent before the bell.

And for Berkshire — which owned more than 325 million shares at the end of 2018 — the losses will be steep.

"They're still very, very good businesses," Buffett said of his consumer staple holdings Kraft Heinz and Coca-Cola as recently as May 2018.

Singapore should re-position Sentosa as the 'new Bali', says CDL chairman Kwek Leng Beng

Read? Singapore should re-position Sentosa as the 'new Bali', says CDL chairman Kwek Leng Beng

Singapore's second-largest developer has a suggestion for the government: re-position the billionaire enclave of Sentosa as a tourism mecca like Bali.

Property values at Sentosa Cove, a residential area nestled on a tiny island off the south coast, have been hit particularly hard, with home prices down about 30 per cent from the highs seen in 2010.

Even as the rest of the nation's residential market staged a recovery in the first half of last year, Sentosa remained stubbornly in the doldrums.

"Sentosa was touted when it first started for the rich and famous," Mr Kwek said on Thursday (Feb 21) at the release of the company's fourth-quarter earnings. "Subsequently, her parents just forgot about this young lady. I would like to suggest that they should re-position it as the new Bali."

THE BILLIONAIRE HAVEN IN SINGAPORE SUFFERING A LOST DECADE

What was previously Sentosa Cove's main strength has become a liability.

The island is the only place in Singapore where foreigners can buy landed property. But with stamp duties doubling to 20 per cent since 2011 for international buyers compared with just 3 per cent for locals, the waterfront oasis is suffering. Multimillion-dollar homes sit empty, and along Quayside Isle, a stretch of restaurants near the marina, businesses have been shutting shop.

Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (7)

Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (6)


After 16 years of receiving more than 6% yield on cost; this little Pig finally cracks the yield of dream. KNS!

Sembcorp Ind declared final dividend of 2 cts and taking full year dividend FY 18 to 4 cts. i.e. 4.7% which is currently the lowest since he bought in 2002 and holds this position.

Highest, Lowest, Average and Total Yield

The Good, Bad And Ugly


This is all about market timing. Your Buy price had already decided whether you are going to make or lose money for HOW LONG.

Who still say market timing is not critical?

19 years across market cycles and he still haven't learnt about market timing and time in the market; then something is seriously wrong with his investing mind!

How To Be Good And Great Investors???

Read? Short money rules

If we strongly believe the truth of the combination :

3. Good investing is 50% psychology, 48% history, 2% finance.

AND

“Superior investors are people who have a better sense for what tickets are in the bowl, and thus for whether it’s worth participating in the lottery. In other words, while superior investors — like everyone else — don’t know exactly what the future holds, they do have an above-average understanding of future tendencies.”

– Howard Marks, Mastering the Market Cycle


Good investing is 48% history and above-average understanding of future tendencies.

Is that simply mean we should be waiting most of the time for market cycles to turn into opportunities to deploy larger war chest?

4 Great investing is 40% skill, 20% luck, 40% inability to tell which is which.


You should already have that 40% skill if you are good investor!

What you need is that 20% luck!


For those JUST started investing near market low of that market cycle; should we say that they are lucky i.e. 20% luck!

But; for those are already in the market across market cycles; then how to get lucky as those in the future who have JUST started investing near market low at the next market cycle?


Think hard!

How to get lucky and make luck with your own hand?

You know how?

Merdeka Generation Package: What you need to know

1. S$100 TOP-UP TO PASSION SILVER CARDS

Seniors will get a one-time S$100 top-up to their PAssion Silver cards. This can be used to pay for activities and facilities at community clubs, entry to public swimming pools and public transport, among other things.

2. MEDISAVE TOP-UPS

Starting this year, Merdeka Generation seniors will get a MediSave top-up of S$200 every year for five years until 2023, to help them save more for healthcare needs.

3. ADDITIONAL OUTPATIENT CARE SUBSIDIES, FOR LIFE

Special Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) subsidies will be available for package recipients, geared towards common illnesses, chronic conditions and dental procedures. All Merdeka Generation seniors will receive these regardless of income, including those without a CHAS card at the moment.

They will also get an additional 25 per cent off subsidised bills at polyclinics and public specialist outpatient clinics.

4. ADDITIONAL MEDISHIELD LIFE PREMIUM SUBSIDIES

Also for life. 

These subsidies will start from 5 per cent of MediShield Life premiums and increase to 10 per cent after seniors hit the age of 75.

This translates to a discount of between S$31.50 and S$918, depending on the premium amount.

5. ANOTHER “PARTICIPATION INCENTIVE” TO JOIN CARESHIELD LIFE

Seniors who join CareShield Life will get an extra S$1,500 (when the scheme becomes available for existing cohorts in 2021).

This is on top of a previously announced S$2,500 sum, meaning that all Merdeka Generation seniors who join the scheme will end up getting S$4,000 of participation incentives.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/merdeka-generation-package-what-you-need-to-know-budget-2019-11253480

Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (6)

Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (5)


DBS declared final dividend of 60 cts and taking full year dividend FY 18 to $1.20

Since he has first invested in DBS in 14 Apr 2003 during SARS; every year since 2003 he is happy with the dividend yield or so called "passive" income.

That year in 2003 he has invested is still the lowest dividend yield over the past 15 years of holding this stock! 

15 years is a long time that is long-term investing that provides free lunch!

Setting Stop Loss Is False Risk Control In Extreme Volatile Market

Option trading for passive income?

Those "Guru" or Trainers who are earning trading courses are telling you that option trading for passive income. Have they told real person, real blow out and chopped fingers?


The term `picking up pennies in front of a steamroller' is linked to Nassim Taleb, an acclaimed author on randomness and risk, whose books describe an investment strategy that has a high probability to yield a small return (pennies), and a small probability of a very large loss (steamroller).

Read? Picking Up Nickels In Front Of A Steam Roller


Last night gathering of two veteran bloggers and two veteran ex bloggers in 2005/2006; we can say that we are the pioneers in this investment blogoshere in Sinagpore.

Real life example of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller'  and killed by steamroller.

Steamroller is slow mover and definitely we have more than sufficient time to pick up pennies and duck safely. Right?

One of them shared how he blew out from option trading and whatever theories and practices he knew are all thrown out!

Setting stop loss is workable and effective in an orderly market and you can get out safely at your stop loss; but in extreme volatile market; your stop loss is NOT REAL!

It can't never control your risk! You may blow out in just one trading day (night in Singapore)! Extreme gap up or gap down. You are gone! Your stop loss is useless!

He lost $160K in one night and giving back all he had earned and more! 

Now; he adopted retiree investing strategy of 80% bonds and 20% equities and focus on earning more to build up even larger capital base when he finally retires in his 50s from his full-time job.

Beyond Position Sizing; It Is Growth Dividend Across Volatile Market Cycles To Keep Your Winners In The Game

Read? Execution, Position Sizing and Financially Irresponsible Stock Positions

"You give some people whose job is to invest money, and by a lot of standards they are good at it. 

Shockingly only 49% of their picks made money. Some of them was successful only 30% of the time. 

At the end of these, almost non of them lost money. They still made a lot of money out of it. "



Uncle8888 also has losers like Noble And Hyflux; but overall he is still surviving as of today!

Position sizing may save us from destruction of our portfolio when we are wrong; but as retail investors who are full of emotions of greed and fear over volatile market cycles; we need something more than just beyond position sizing when we are right. 

Some investing strategy that is inherent to keep us in the Game.

Luckily; Uncle8888 somehow managed to seize it and profit from it. 

Growth-dividend investing strategy? 

and NOT those income stocks that keep coming back for right issues as part of their business model and rarely give out special dividends to reward loyal shareholders!


Outsize special dividends are damn shiok to earlier investors who have bought at much lower price.

SGX

Read? SGX : Bought @ $7.46


After more than two years of consuming 11% of Panadols; SGX is seeing some light as of now and Panadols no more?

Last sold @ $7.76

A New Record Every Month From 2009 to Oct 2016

Every month set a new record for donkey years till Oct 2016!

Every month smiling when Uncle8888 looked at his CPF accounts!

Read? My CPF OA Is The Real And True Wealth Compounding Machine (2)

My Free Lunch Investment Portfolio In SGX

No capital at risk to receive free lunch!

142% war chest is waiting patiently to build up the next batch of free lunch!

Singapore household incomes grew in 2018, income inequality stable

Read? Singapore household incomes grew in 2018, income inequality stable


CW8888: How much is enough to retire comfortably in Singapore for a couple without housing loans and children all independence?

When you NO need to save for your retirement anymore and also debt free; $4,000 to $6,000 is enough???

Among households headed by a Singapore citizen or permanent resident which had at least one working person, the median monthly income last year grew by 3 per cent in nominal terms to S$9,293, up from $9,023 in 2017.

The Real Problem Of Agak Agak (Guess/Estimate) In Investing

Especially true to those investing for income or yield as they MAY not include paper losses and/or paper gains disappearing from the table.

When we calculate to precision of two decimal points and including paper gains disappearing from the table; then investing is not easy. 

It is damn bloody tough to grab those extra % gains on the table to realize it. Bang head! Alamak!

It Is Not Purple

Quite often he ordered the purple ones as vege item for his cai fan!

Hmm ... not purple!

What You Can Absolutely Control In Your Trading Or Investing???

Your position sizing!

The rest of other factors in investing or trading - 3M's Method, Mind and Money Management are just an illusion of you having control!

First HDB Blocks In Singapore

Today. SundayTimes got this news and old photo.

Yesterday, Uncle8888 happened to be there . Ha ha!

Super lucky generation. Landed Properties at HDB price!