As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

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Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

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Value Investing
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Wednesday, 30 January 2019

My Three Little Pigs (Good, Bad And Ugly) vs STI ETF


It is about market timing for good, bad and ugly investment performance.

If we managed to buy STI ETF at $1.49 which was lowest in 2009. Good!


34 comments:

  1. Alamak like that ahh....

    i remember i got IPO SGX@ 1$ and DBS LAND too.

    And when Bei Kaming me sold happily an old man i came to know accumulated also happily.

    No should be gleefully.

    So no matter "OLD GINGER IS ALWAYS MORE PUNGENT.

    i still remembered till this day.

    Did i learn anything?

    Don't think so.

    i am a cycle trader.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi CreateWealth8888, what are your thoughts about using annuity as an alternative divestment during retirement?
    https://thekaching.com/risk-management-during-retirement/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What the FA recommended is more of an endowment than annuity.

      Anyway, the XIRR of that insurance product if sustained till maturity (20 years) is 2.8%pa.

      This is based on the assumption of the non-guaranteed maturity portion ($624,087) being achieved using the upper limit of 4.75% as in the Benefit Illustration.

      If use the lower limit of 3.25% being achieved by the insurance company in their Par Fund, then the non-guaranteed amount will be $467,698.

      This will reduce the overall XIRR to 2.2% :)

      Now, some people are willing to accept 2.2%-2.8% for "peace of mind". But even then I don't think it should involve 80% of your assets as told by the FA in his story ($1.2M out of $1.5M).

      The fact that your XIRR is 2.8% even if the insurance company achieves 4.75% CAGR in it's Par Fund means that a VERY LARGE amount is makaned by the insurance company/insurance agent. ;)

      You already have a good annuity via CPF Life. If you want annuity, you can max CPF out first. For sure the XIRR as well as the amount "makaned" by CPF is much better than commercial insurance companies! LOL!!

      Delete
    2. Commercial or government is the lesser evil for social pooling insurance scheme?

      Delete
    3. Hi Uncle8888,

      Let's see how much CPF makaned from CPF Life shall we? ;) ;)

      Assume 55 this year and willing to go for Enhanced Retirement Sum ($264,000) and go for Standard Plan.

      CPF Life Calculator shows monthly payout from 65 of $1972-$2178 (based on 3.75%-4.25% CAGR of pooled fund).

      Let's take middle road of $2075 per month i.e. CAGR of 4% by pooled fund.

      Assume live until 85 yrs ... hence collect $24,900 per year for 20 yrs. By 85 zero bequest.

      XIRR is 3.4% p.a.

      Hence 0.6% p.a. chooried by CPF Life ... still better than commercial lah LOL!

      Delete
  3. Hi Spur,
    The article actually did mentioned that Mr Tan has already max out his CPF-SA i.e. CPF Life. Thus, I am very curious what you guys think about adding the annuity / endowment as a form of diversification. If it's a good alternative, what is a right % distribution in a portfolio of 1.5 mil. Also, I think the difference between an annuity / endowment is the bequest / death benefit. Commercial gives better death benefit / bequest? CPF Life is a drawdown?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The endowment shld have some death benefit but since not spelled out in FA's story hence cannot calculate "returns" if die prematurely. :P

      Annuity including CPF Life means pay until die, even if it's 150 yrs old. :)

      Both commercial annuity and CPF Life will have bequest if die within XX years. XX depends on how big the initial premium & how big the monthly payouts & the projected CAGR of pooled funds & mortality of annuitants. This vary from company to company, and plan to plan.

      XIRR is the best way to compare financial returns by different products on apple to apple basis. ;)

      Frankly with IRR of 2.2%-2.8%, might as well max out OA, SA, RA, CPF Life with interests from 2.5% to 6%? ;) ;)

      Sometimes Occam's Razor is the best. Lol!

      Seriously, if the amounts involved are 100s of thousands or millions, better to pay $2k for an independent advisor (who won't get commission/reward whether you buy or not) to analyse the insurance/investment products together in the context of your financial situation. ;)

      Delete
    2. For the last part, the question has to be directed back to the consumer , whether anot are they willing to pay such fee(supposingly the advisor is competent in such area.)

      Fee based advisory is growing in sg, and still it may not be suitable for most retail customers.

      Delete
  4. Meaning, if you have 1.5 million, you will deposit all into CPF OA / RA then draw down from there from 65 onwards? How easy is the draw down process? Can treat it like a banking account during retirement?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let's just say that if I'm as uncertain of managing my money as Mr Tan (otherwise he wouldn't be putting $1.2M into an endowment with expense ratio of 1.95%), I'd rather have built up the $1.2M in CPF LOL!

      As for ease & using it like bank a/c, I'm sure you know ;)

      It's only those who can't even meet the Retirement Sum who would say it's hard! :P

      Delete
  5. Sharing something I read from www.areyouready.sg.

    A bequest refers to the unused annuity premium and retirement account savings, if any after death. This will be paid to your beneficiaries along with your remaining CPF savings.
    However, interest earned on annuity premiums does not form part of the individual member’s bequest as it is paid into the lifelong income fund to provide lifelong monthly payouts to all members under CPF Life

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yup, that's the socialist price you pay for CPF Life to give you higher payouts than comparable commercial annuities. ;)

      Delete
    2. Hi Spur, correct me if I am wrong. Means if I have 256K at age 55 in my CPF-SA, it would be used to pay the CPF Life annuity premiums. I get 1.9K - 2K per mth from 65 until I die, but the 4% interest earned on the CPF-SA will not be passed on to my kids when I die. Means my kids will only get whatever I have drawn down from 256K ? i.e. the bequest amount will only be < 256K ?

      Delete
    3. All money leftover after meeting FRS in CPF OA and SA are yours and can be withdraw at anytime

      Delete
    4. At 55, $x will be xfer from SA & OA to RA. $x depends whether you opt for BRS, FRS or ERS.

      From 55 to 65, your initial $x in RA will still earn the 4+% p.a.

      At 65, your (initial $x + compounded interests) in RA will be used to "buy" CPF Life. From this time on, the interests generated by CPF Life will not be part of your bequest.

      Your nominees entitled to whatever unused portion of (initial $x + compounded interests).

      Delete
    5. You can use the CPFLife estimator to view how much payout and bequest.

      https://www.cpf.gov.sg/eSvc/Web/Schemes/LifePayoutEstimator/LifePayoutEstimator

      Delete
  6. Hi CreateWealth8888,

    All the money leftover after meeting FRS sitting in CPF OA and SA, do they still continue to enjoy the 2.x interest rate? How do you go about withdrawing? e.g. if u want to draw 2k per month from it? Electronic transfer or ATM?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can do it online or visit CPF branch.

      Online

      My Requests --> Retirement (eg. Retirement Sum & Age 55 applications) -->

      Withdraw my CPF (For members 55 and above) - Payment via Interbank GIRO

      Withdraw my CPF (For members 55 and above) - Payment via PayNow New!

      Applicable only if you have registered under PayNow and linked your Singapore NRIC as your proxy. To learn more about PayNow, please click here.


      Delete
    2. My first year withdrawal of $23K was done at CPF branch.

      Second year withdrawal of $24K was done via online by Paynow. Received $24K to bank account almost instant. Instant Cash!

      Delete
    3. Learning at first hand is the best learning experience

      Delete
    4. Thanks for the generous sharing :)

      Delete
    5. Feel free to ask here.

      You can see the reply from Spur! Great sharing!

      Delete
    6. Uncle8888 .... LOL Instant 💰Cash💰 ... I like!! 👍🤑

      I can't convince my elder relatives to use Paynow with mobile app ... I teach them use online via Giro already vomit blood! 😜

      Delete
  7. BTW..I have one more question..how do you plan to pass your stock portfolio to your kids. Did you give them some investing coaching to make sure they can inherit your portfolio ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carpe Diem,

      Great question! How to handover investment portfolio to loved ones if they're not so savvy or interested in investing? Even if you provide instructions e.g. don't panic sell, don't draw out more than 4% annually, do annual re-balancing, they may not follow. 🤔

      Unless you have Uncle8888's yield of dreams portfolio then no worries .... just tell your family to sit back & collect fat ultra-strong panadols! LOL!

      Delete
    2. If family is to sit back & collect fat ultra strong panadols, is the estate portfolio( aka any
      assets) needed to be converted into a trust first?

      I think setting up a trust is no problem.

      Finding a suitable trustee/s is a problem for many people.

      Delete
    3. Setting a private trust is a $5m question

      Delete
  8. We should ask NTUC to set up low cost social enterprise private trust for us

    ReplyDelete
  9. Setting your own personal trust with your own trustee/s, i think is recognized in Singapore Trust Laws.

    I have been pondering whether can appoint a church or temple as trustee for a personal's trust for your family?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Temperament, if u appoint a Kong hee church to become a trustee, then Gong Xi Fa Cai liao :-)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Er...

    Which is more likely to abdicate the trust U set up for your family?

    An appointed individual trustee or an organisation?

    Is bank an organisation?

    Is church an organisation?

    Is trust company an organisation or institution?

    The problem is estate is not large enough to be managed by Trust company or bank.

    Who don't know it is safer to be managed a professional institutions like bank or trust company?

    Can't afford, so must crack your grey matters to look for suitable alternatives ma!?

    No?

    ReplyDelete

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