At today closing
SCI + 4.911 SML = $2.23 + 4.911 X $0.2 = $3.21
To those who are still holding smelly SML and green SCI by sucking Panadols; probably the worst is over!
Uncle8888's retirement planning on future inflation rate @ 2.5% looking reasonable based on past 20 yrs back-testing data points!
Taking highest inflation rate that will hit him badly is the cost of health care at $1.58 in 2020 to $1 in 2000.
The inflation rate for 20 yrs is about 2.2%
This article was updated on 30 May 2021.
We’ve all heard our parents and/or grandparents lament over how expensive things have gotten in Singapore over the years. The main culprit for this is inflation – the higher the inflation, the more expensive things become compared to the previous year.
No matter how frugal we may try to be, we will see ourselves gradually spending more as inflation will increase the prices of even the most basic daily necessities.
The Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStats) keeps a detailed record for price changes in goods and services that are important aspects of life in Singapore on a yearly basis. These include:
Saturday, 24 July 2010
Read? Get Rich Courses or Coaching? - II
The trainers themselves are millionaires so we can trust them on good will to educate us and not seeing us as their source of revenues to make more money for themselves?
Uncle8888 once also think like that. So naive!
Spur29 May 2021 at 04:05:00 GMT+8
Uncle8888,
In the spirit of refresh, here's an interview couple days ago with Stanley Druckenmiller.
Lots of good stuff about how he invests & what he thinks makes a good investor. Also talks a fair bit about cryptos & tech.
Some of the stuff he says are similar to Jim Rogers; no surprise as both worked under George Soros.
Enjoy!
PS: shld be a treat for Smol :)
Reply Delete
Read? Stanley Druckenmiller interview; Buffett on diversification; Phishing text messages
You can laugh or poke at Panda/Koala retail investors! No problem as they don't deserve to be Millionaires from the market! They don't learn to catch up with the latest and savvy investing trends! They deserve to be left behind and become extinct!
Read? Blog posts relating to Concentrate
On making concentrated, high-conviction bets:
When I’ve looked at all the investors [that] have very large reputations – Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, George Soros – they all only have one thing in common.
And it’s the exact opposite of what they teach in a business school. It is to make large, concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction.
They’re not buying 35 or 40 names and diversifying.
I don’t know whether you remember that Icahn a few years ago put $5 billion into Apple. I don’t think he was worth more than $10 billion when he did that.
[In 1992] when I went in to tell Soros that I was going to short 100% of the fund in the British pound against the Deutschmark, he looked at me with great disdain.
He thought the story was good enough that I should be doing 200%, because it was sort of a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
So, [these investors] concentrate their holdings. This is very counterintuitive.
In my thinking, [concentrating your bets] decreases your overall risk because where you tend to be in trouble is if you have 35 or 40 names.
If you start paying attention to one. If you have a big, massive position, it has your attention.
My favorite quote of all time is maybe Mark Twain: “Put all your eggs in one basket and watch the basket carefully.”
I tend to think that’s what great investors do.
On knowing when to sell and using stop losses:
The other thing to me [that makes a good investor] is you have to know how and when to take a loss. I’ve been in business since 1976 as a money manager.
I’ve never used the stop loss. Not once. It’s the dumbest concept I’ve ever heard. [If a stock goes down 15%] I’m automatically out.
But I’ve also never hung onto a security if the reason I bought it has changed. That’s when you need to sell.
If I buy X security for A, B, C, and D reasons, and those reasons are no longer valid, [I sell].
Whether I have a loss or a gain, that stock doesn’t know whether you have a loss or a gain.
You know, it is not important. Your ego is not what this is about. What this is about is you’re making money.
So, if I have a thesis and it doesn’t bear out – which happens often with me, I’m often wrong – just get out and move on.
Because I said earlier: if you’re using the most disciplined approach, you can find something else. There’s no reason to hang on to any security where you don’t have great conviction
3Ms in Investing - Method, Mind and Money Management!
Our account size really matters in long-term investing - CW8888
Newbie continues to do well!
Another data point to show that Luck Factor AND market timing; and psychology of losing money and deploying cash is NOT the same!
Read? Unexpected Token Of Appreciation From Follower (Ex-colleague)!
Uncle8888 also believes in the element of Luck factor and our Account Size really matters!
Read? Lucky Or Unlucky When You First Get Started Investing Over Market Cycles (2)
Investing is a Game of Capital. No capital then Game over! Read? My Own Psychology Of Losses: Losing Money And Deploying Cash Is Not The Same! (3)
Read? Sell In May And Go Away???
One more trading day on next Monday in May!
Not happening for May 2021! :-)
This morning read the case of police officers and dementia woman at Yishun and reminded him that dementia is scary and can be unavoidable!
Uncle8888 has been through with his late parents-in-law with Dementia and more understanding and alerts to elderly folks and try to help whenever he could help.
More folks should watch out for those dementia and try to help them if possible.
Hopefully; when Uncle8888 is one of those dementia folks and kindness may come to him.
Uncle8888 is paying forward!
Read? Blog posts relating to Dementia
Hmm ... reading this in investment blogoshere reminded Uncle8888 who has also personally lost money on audited fraudulent s-chips where fixed deposits and cash balances in "banks" were also fake!
Quote : "I try to put my money at the top platform/dapp (decentralized application) that has undergone audit(s) but when it happens"
Read? SMOL: Trust But Verify???
"Gurus" are gurus. They are not stupid. They are very good at words, sweet talking, clever marketing and counter objections; otherwise they should have long gone.
Like those Snake Oil men in the past; if we kept seeing the same bunch of snake oil men at every Chinese Wayang Show that meant they have became successful businessmen selling some snake oil to willing buyers. Right?
This was how late Guru would counter back and Uncle8888 learned something from him.
Trust; but You can't really verify!
Late Guru's counter argument.
We trust audited statements from the Big Four. Right?
But it doesn't mean auditors have verified there is no uncovered fakes or fraud! We have seen some audited and listed companies have been faking or fraud so well until one day they were uncovered and start failing.
Trust is far more important than audited statements?
Trust! That is all you need to do. Soon easy money will come to your pocket. Trust me! I am here to help you. Why? Because I have made millions!
Our human weakness is that we will tend to trust more when it sounds so easy, so sweet and so promising; and especially when these came from the mouth of millionaires or from someone who are appearing so rich!
Read? S$3 billion in CPF top-ups made last year, 40% more than 2019
Wah! Juicy pots of Gold in CPF waiting for fund managers to convince CPF members that they are generally not good at DIY investing!
Come, come, come to us to secure your retirement planning.
Did you see more such Big Ads to invest your CPF at many MRT stations?
What we can't really cut down or save on these health care or medical expenses in COVID-19!
No travelling expenses; but medical expenses will always be there and rising as we are getting older and body resistance and immunity getting weaker. New health issues may also slowly surfacing up for medical attention.
Health is wealth!
Read? When Your Bank RM Called??? (7)
6 months of lower loan interest rate and then for how long will it stay below or around the projected 23 yrs loan duration of average rate @ 2.5%?
Read? When Your Bank RM Called??? (6)
Read? Non Consistent Stream of Retirement Income From Investment Portfolio In Local SGX Stock Market
Like any good Sales person or Snake Oil; they can bring out the Greed/Fear in us or fill up the Hole in the Heart?
It is nothing but an illusion of wealth when the Bull charged ahead!
A short moment of happiness of hitting All Time High; and then the mood in the market changed so fast! Bear coming? LOL!
COVID-19 Round 2 War Chest deployment akan datang?
STI falls 2.18 per cent to 9-week low as Singapore imposes social curbs
FRI, MAY 14, 2021 - 6:05 PM
ANITA GABRIELanitag@sph.com.sg@AnitaGabrielBT
SINGAPORE'S key Straits Times Index fell more than 3 per cent mid-Friday as fresh lockdown rules to fight rising Covid-19 cases raised concerns about the mending economy.
The STI plunged the most in nearly a year by 68.24 points or 2.18 per cent to finish at a nine-week low of 3,055.02 on Friday. The losses made the local bourse an outlier in the region as its major peers finished the week on a higher note following modest gains overnight in Wall Street as inflation worries eased.
Week-on-week, the STI has lost 145.2 points or 4.5 per cent after closing red every day in a holiday-shortened trading week.
The emergence of major clusters at the airport and a local hospital, which prompted the latest round of restrictions, serves as a stark reminder on how delicate the recovery from the pandemic is, albeit fortified by the ongoing vaccine rollout.
"Tightened social restrictions will effectively freeze the recovery of private consumption in the short term," remarked Yu Liuqing of The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU), adding however that disruption to businesses will be less pronounced than the circuit breaker period last year as businesses have adapted to working from home.
Turnover was high with 3.52 billion units worth S$3.22 billion changing hands. In the broader market, decliners outpaced gainers with 467 counters down and 127 up.
Singtel retreated 9 Singapore cents or 3.7 per cent to S$2.32 and was the day's seventh most actively traded with 72 million shares worth S$168 million done. The telco said on Friday morning that it was launching a strategic review of two key units and warned that its second half and full year ended-March results are expected to include net exceptional losses of S$839 million and S$1.21 billion respectively owing to impairments.
Frencken Group closed unchanged at S$1.42. The company released a stellar first quarter update earlier this week on better product mix and margins. DBS Group Research issued a buy rating on the counter with a 12-month target price of S$1.98 given its resilient earnings, thanks to its diversified portfolio, and higher contribution from the semiconductor segment.
Read? Coasting Financial Independence / Barista FI – More Realistic, Attainable and Balance
When Uncle8888 read the above! Ha! Ha!
He has been there doing it for years before finally closed his 10 yrs planned KPI!
When our company is into Bell Curve performance appraisal i.e. someone has to be at the other end of the Bell Curve but it can be us willingly; our immediate boss may appreciate our contribution to "fair" bonus distribution in his/her team without any resentment from you! "Fair" compensation for a willing Coaster! Why not? LOL!
Read? Why Pursue Financial Freedom? (6)
CW8888: When someone has huge commercially vested interests into their own pocket. They can both play God and Devil! When they played God, Believers may come and join the Party; and then they turned Devil to suck Believers' money
In the market, there are always be matched sellers to buyers and Spur said : Always sellers that matched buyers -- but not necessarily at the price you like to sell or buy LOL.
Same. Same. Snake Oil always around in the Investment Blogoshere, social medias and forums to suck in Bei Kambing!
Always remember this; when we are in the market; we are always Competitiors in Buy and Sell Queue! Our own money is Real and we have to make real money from other real players in the market!
Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (6) - About time to refresh it!
Read? Where does the money come from??? (2)
[BENGALURU] Tesla Inc has suspended the use of bitcoin to purchase its vehicles, chief executive officer Elon Musk said in a tweet on Wednesday, citing concerns about the use of fossil fuel for bitcoin mining.
Bitcoin, the world's biggest digital currency, fell more than 7 per cent after the tweet and was trading at US$52,669.
Mr Musk said Tesla would not sell any bitcoin, and intends to use bitcoin for transactions as soon as mining transitions to more sustainable energy.
"We are also looking at other cryptocurrencies that use 1 per cent of bitcoin's energy/transaction," Mr Musk said.
Mr Musk said in March Tesla that customers can buy its electric vehicles with bitcoin.
If we depend too much on investment income from our investment portfolio during our retirement; it can be quite disruptive and not sustainable across market and economic cycles. We really need to have other sources of stable income before entering retirement or FIRE. It is NOT like when our investment income exceeds household expenses; we are ready to FIRE! Chun bo?
2021 H1 dividends are all counted and also includes some trading income. It is about 6.7% and hope that 2021 will NOT be setting a new low below 8%. A new low in the retirement will be super sianz!
There are always Sellers that matched Buyers!
Sell in May and go away will then match Buy in May and hold till next Apr? LOL!
Let see what happen at end May!
Any investing quotes from non-commercially vested Gurus and even wise words from your personally known or close investing sifus cannot sink into our investing mind until we are hit by deep shit in the market and learnt them in the hard way! Same as Uncle8888 and finally understood his Sifu's wise words.
It took a deep shit of pains of losing the sight of reaching FI in 1 to 2 years time to finally learnt!
Read? Chasing the last $100K (last mile) and may fall hard! (2)
Read? My dream of pursuing financial independence by 55 in 2011!
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So my sifu is right!
It is far better to regret not making more money than to feel sorry of losing your hard earned money.
My sifu started trading and investing at age of 18 following the foot-steps of his father into the stock market.
Choose Regret or Sorry?
It is in our own hands. It is our own making!
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Uncle8888's Sifu wise words: "It is far better to REGRET not making more than to feel SORRY of losing our hard earned money!".
This is definitely aligned to our human nature and biasness.
When we cannot resist it then we should follow it!
Be like rain water; follow it down stream to whatever it goes!
Read? Are Future Market Crises Our Opportunities???
Finally; COVID-19 has pushed GLC companies like SPH, CPL, SCI, Keppel etc to improve shareholder value by cutting rotting parts!
Read? You See That Room Over There Full of Millionaires!
Anyone personally knows any Cisco employees managed to sell to become real millionaire during Dotcom bubble?
Illusionary wealth in the stock market can unexpectedly shrink very quickly while we are still hoping that it will recover to its past glory.
Currently; which room in which company is full of millionaires?
Telsa?
SEA?
Read? Time in the Market > Timing the Market??? (4)
Read? No Blog Post On Investing??? (2)
Many times hearing DBS CIO mentioning Barbell investing strategy!
Barbell?
Is Timing the market is also another form of long-term Barbell investing strategy for patient retail i.e. earning low interests without losing any money in the war chest and crossing over to higher risk in expectation of higher return and nothing in between before the Bull-Bear cycle?
Right?
Hmm ... do we really spend less after retirement if based on per headcount instead of using total household expenses for married couples with children?
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