As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Since 2017 after retiring from full-time job as employee; I am moving towards Investing Nirvana - Freehold Investment Income for Life investing strategy where 100% of investment income from portfolio investment is cashed out to support household expenses i.e. not a single cent of re-investing!

Currently; it about 54% to destination!

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This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

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Value Investing
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Thursday, 11 June 2020

STI Down by -3.4% to 2,704

From FOMO buying to Panic selling???


  1. Another round of massacre like in March starting tonight is coming?

    Why FED. RES. PEP TALK can not work anymore?

    Or the market has been a bullish trap for Bei Kamings, recently?

    1. Get ready to execute our plan to fresh up rotting cash

  2. Ya!

    But got some cash rotting in Stocks bought in 2019 too.

    They are worse in terms of loss than those i bought in March this year, 2020.

    The question is how much capital one still have to try into market?

    No capital, no talk, no matter what happens in the market.

    Like U said, got panadols from them but can tahan long-term or not?

    iMHO - No one should be in the market if can not tahan at least 5 years.

    Of course longer the better.

    In fact no time limiting when to sell is the best.

    The only factor to me can the stock survives and recovers above it's mean price?

    i am really very 牛 in the market hoh?

  3. Trading Against The Crowd

    I will borrow a little Nassim Taleb for a paragraph—it’s about the difference between building portfolios that are fragile versus those that are antifragile. As most people have found out in the past few weeks, they had fragile portfolios. Most people did.
    You want to build a portfolio that gains from disorder. Not many people did that, outside of some vol funds and the tail risk guys, who do that sort of thing for a living.
    You can’t be a tail risk fund, so don’t even think about it.
    The reality is that we are all more or less long-only investors, and once every 12 years we are going to get clubbed over the head with a baton. You can take steps to mitigate this (like the 35/65 portfolio), but the tradeoff is lower returns. So, is there no hope?
    Let me speak briefly about sentiment trading and asymmetry. One of the cool things about being a sentiment trader is that you are always betting against the crowd. If people are excessively bearish, you’re bullish, and vice versa.
    The nice thing about this is that it frequently puts you in low-risk trades where there is significant asymmetry—you can make more than you can lose.
    Of course, none of us know what the real probability distribution is, but if you have some experience and a nose for crowd psychology, you will be risking a little to make a lot, rather than risking a lot to make a little.
    Whenever I trade, I think about this asymmetry (which some people might call optionality). It’s one of the reasons I’ve been short Canadian banks all these years—even in the best-case scenario for the Canadian banks, I never perceived a lot of upside. And that was the right call.
    Value investors do this, too—they invest in things with a margin of safety. Sentiment trading is a distant cousin of value investing.
    When you invest this way, you tend to be less exposed to large shocks. Oftentimes you will have built a portfolio that gains from disorder. And it always helps to have a hedge—buying a few deep out-of-the-money puts is never a bad idea, as long as you remember to sell them.
    If you didn’t get it right this time, for the killer virus, make sure you get it right for next time, when the asteroid hits.

    Jared Dillian


    Buying Puts is the same as buying shorts in the market?

    What's the difference?

    How best to buy them?

    In SGX?

  4. So base on the above article, i know i am a Sentiment investor much , much more than a value investor.
    i know, i know nuts about the intrinsic value of a stock.

    Err... what is DCF means?
    Catch no balls lah.
    i understand most people have their own DCF value of the same stock.

    My maths is only counting with 10 fingers.
    Maybe together with my 10 toes, will help?

    Analyse less, invest more is good advice or not?
    (Aka if 4Ks will never invest one. i admit i am 4Ks too, at times)
    Like in time like this(Covid19, FED RES unlimited printing of money, Trump wants to COLD WAR with China, etc....)

    Analyse less, Invest more!



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