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Thursday, 17 May 2018

Fundamental Analysis : As Outsiders How Far Into The Future Can We Analyze Company Business?


Read? Part-Time And Free Lance Jobs (2)


Somehow this thought came into Uncle8888's investing mind on fundamental analysis as retail investors.

As outsiders how far into the future can we as retail investors analyze company's business/fundamental based on publicly disclosed materials and quarterly financial reports.

We can analyze the past but how far into the future?

Uncle8888 started this 8 HWW (Hours Work Week) last June 2017with 16 outlets in 8 retail malls in Hougang, Orchard, Bugis+, Doby Ghaut and Raffles City. 

In less than one year into this job; he realized tough competition in F&B space.


Jun 2017 : 16 outlets in 8 shopping malls

3th month: Aug 2017

1 outlet closed shop and left with 15 outlets in 8 shopping malls

4th month : Sep 2017 

1 outlet closed shop and left with 14 outlets in 8 shopping malls


As outsider he has started seeing the fundamental of this company is deteriorating and business is slowing down and going nowhere.



10th month: Mar 2018

1 outlet closed shop and left with 13 outlets in 8 shopping malls


11th month: Apr 2018

1 outlet closed shop and left with 12 outlets in 8 shopping malls

11th month: Apr 2018

After renovation; the same owner re-opened with new branding  and back with 13 outlets in 8 shopping malls

12th month: May 2018

The owner acquired three outlets by one of the famous bak tu teh chains ; two in the same shopping malls and one outlet in another mall in Orchard and add the 4th outlet with new brand in the same mall.

Now 17 outlets in 9 shopping malls.

All of the sudden; this fundamental turned around and looking good. The weekly revenue from the three bak tu teh easily double the previous three closed outlets.

Has the owner over paid for the four outlets?

As outsider; it is not possible to know. Right?

The moral of story?

As outsiders how far into the future can we as retail investors analyze company's business/fundamental based on publicly disclosed materials and quarterly financial reports.





7 comments:

  1. For how long should we give Mgmt to improve company performance before cutting losses on our share holdings? Few quarters or 1 to 2 years bearing the pain of paper losses and consuming small doses of Panadols to ease heartache?

    As retail investors; we have no access to Mgmt thinking and planning before these materials are publicly disclosed.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Just go with the flow ;)

    Let the bosses & top mgmt do the hard thinking.

    Hang onto their coattails & enjoy the ride when Mr Market agrees with them. Haha!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi bro cw

    U have turn to an investigator liao :)
    I wish I can be like u if I can retire... Worry will need to work after age 65... Sigh

    Btw, Is this company boss start up with the very 1st makan shop at old Seiyu Bugis last time?

    Thanks :)
    Sy

    ReplyDelete
  4. Me just trying to figure out which company is that... hehehe
    Is this a listed company?
    If yes, then this company doesn't sell bread or Vietnam food right?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete

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