This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!
"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder
"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle
It is here where I share with you how I did it!
FREE Education in stock market wisdom.
Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down
Hi Uncle8888,
ReplyDeleteCash shield, yield shield, bond shield.
I think very hard for negative sequence of returns risk to penetrate your triple shields! LOL!
Based on your 3 Taps pie chart, roughly 14% of your total portfolio in risk assets (stocks).
Using SG large caps as proxy for your stocks positions, the maximum drawdowns over past 22 years if 14% Singapore stocks and 86% cash:-
1) -8.6% (GFC)
2) -7.5% (AFC)
3) -4.5% (2015 China / Oil Crisis)
4) -3.1% (Dotcom / SARS, but a long frustrating 3 years of +/- 3% up & down sideways sandpaper grinding)
Do note that all above drawdowns recovered ... but of course take time & patience (which depending on personal circumstances & goals, may or may not have).
Total gains of 85.3% or CAGR of 2.76% over 22 years LOL.
Using Monte Carlo statistical projections for the above 14:86 asset allocation:-
Worst case drawdown (Great Depression style) -- -11.5% (i.e. stocks position almost wiped out!)
Median "big bear" drawdown -- -8.1%
Super kiasi. LoL
DeleteIf we know when to go then retirement planning will be simpler
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