Market decline drags CPFIS-included funds into losses in 2018

FUNDS included in the CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS) posted losses in 2018, pulled down by a sharp downdraft in global markets towards the end of the year.

CW8888: We are still in Bull Run phase. No worry!

In The Market; There Is Always Buyers And Sellers

Look at the diagram!

Who are net buyers and net sellers?

BBs buy from Retails and BBs sell to Retails. 

Who are the Smart Money?

Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (5)

Read? Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (4)


Uncle8888 met him again when roaming the street of Orchard Rd. He is regular roamer except he is decently dressed with long pant and shoe unlike Uncle8888 in short and slippers. LOL!


Once kena 1997/1998 AFC storm; he chopped fingers and never touch any investing or lending of any kind. All investment and lending is nature is risky.

As he has plenty of free time as single; every month he hunts for better FD interests and renew his FDs. He not even interested in SSB as it is marketed as Bond! Bond is lending money! LOL!


He said he has more than enough to retire and will follow Uncle8888's foot steps to roam across the island since he is also strong walker himself!

To fight inflation; you just make sure you have plenty of bullets to fire!

Do everybody need to invest to fight inflation?

never risk getting caught short of cash

Berkshire will forever remain a financial fortress. In managing, I will make expensive mistakes of commission and will also miss many opportunities, some of which should have been obvious to me. At times, our stock will tumble as investors flee from equities. But I will never risk getting caught short of cash."


Don't poke me for parroting!

Uncle8888 will NOT risk getting caught short of cash like in 2009 again!

Saving, Lending and Investing (6)

Read? Saving, Lending and Investing (6)


SINGAPORE - The High Court has approved an application by embattled water treatment firm Hyflux and three of its subsidiaries for leave to convene a scheme meeting with all its creditors over its proposed restructuring.

It can now proceed with a scheme meeting on April 5 with unsecured creditors including noteholders and 29 banks, which make up one creditor class, as well as perpetual securities and preference shareholders, who make up another creditor class.

Under the reorganisation plan, filed with the High Court last week, some 34,000 registered holders of Hyflux perpetual securities and preference shares, which are owed $900 million, will receive a total of $27 million in cash and a 10.26 per cent share of the reorganised company.



CW8888:


This Hyflux has re-enforced Uncle8888' own belief in lending and investing.

As retail, we have control over lending and investing; till now he never believe in lending his money in hope of Return of Capital and get caught in the illusion of safety of money. 

In the market; by nature nothing is safe from predators wiping out helpless minority to enrich themselves!


Lehman Brothers minibond; and Hyflux Perf and Perp will go into History to show that no one can see that far into future to ensure safety of our money. At least in investing; there is still some hope for multi-baggers :-)

Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A, BRK-B) shareholders

Read? Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A, BRK-B) shareholders is out, and it’s different this time


CW8888: Walau! Buffet Warren now also looks at market pricing. Mr Market is always right! LOL! 

Where is the intrinsic value and value investing? LOL!

 No counting in percentage!


Long-time readers of our annual reports will have spotted the different way in which I opened this letter. For nearly three decades, the initial paragraph featured the percentage change in Berkshire’s per-share book value. It’s now time to abandon that practice.

The fact is that the annual change in Berkshire’s book value – which makes its farewell appearance on page 2 – is a metric that has lost the relevance it once had. Three circumstances have made that so. First, Berkshire has gradually morphed from a company whose assets are concentrated in marketable stocks into one whose major value resides in operating businesses. Charlie and I expect that reshaping to continue in an irregular manner. 

Second, while our equity holdings are valued at market prices, accounting rules require our collection of operating companies to be included in book value at an amount far below their current value, a mismark that has grown in recent years. 

Third, it is likely that – over time – Berkshire will be a significant repurchaser of its shares, transactions that will take place at prices above book value but below our estimate of intrinsic value. 

The math of such purchases is simple: Each transaction makes per-share intrinsic value go up, while per-share book value goes down. That combination causes the book-value scorecard to become increasingly out of touch with economic reality.


In future tabulations of our financial results, we expect to focus on Berkshire’s market price. Markets can be extremely capricious: Just look at the 54-year history laid out on page 2. Over time, however, Berkshire’s stock price will provide the best measure of business performance.

Your Money Or Your Life???

It Is NOT Buy And Hold That Made Money In The Stock Market

Never mistaken!

It is NOT Buy and Hold!

Buy and hold may be just taking Panadols to ease your heartache and hopefully over long periods of taking Panadols you are immune! Pain no more!

Those who made money from Time in the Market is that they are "lucky" in market timing or having beginner's luck! 

Buy, Right and Hold and then smiling every time when they received CDP statement!

This is joyful investing where you are getting cheerful eggs instead of bitter Panadols!

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway loses more than $3 billion in single day on Kraft Heinz plunge

Read?Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway loses more than $3 billion in single day on Kraft Heinz plunge


Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is set to lose more than $3 billion in a single day after Kraft Heinz revealed a string of disappointing news.

Stock of the packaged food giant, whose products include Heinz Tomato Ketchup and Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, plunged more than 24 percent before the bell.

And for Berkshire — which owned more than 325 million shares at the end of 2018 — the losses will be steep.

"They're still very, very good businesses," Buffett said of his consumer staple holdings Kraft Heinz and Coca-Cola as recently as May 2018.

Singapore should re-position Sentosa as the 'new Bali', says CDL chairman Kwek Leng Beng

Read? Singapore should re-position Sentosa as the 'new Bali', says CDL chairman Kwek Leng Beng

Singapore's second-largest developer has a suggestion for the government: re-position the billionaire enclave of Sentosa as a tourism mecca like Bali.

Property values at Sentosa Cove, a residential area nestled on a tiny island off the south coast, have been hit particularly hard, with home prices down about 30 per cent from the highs seen in 2010.

Even as the rest of the nation's residential market staged a recovery in the first half of last year, Sentosa remained stubbornly in the doldrums.

"Sentosa was touted when it first started for the rich and famous," Mr Kwek said on Thursday (Feb 21) at the release of the company's fourth-quarter earnings. "Subsequently, her parents just forgot about this young lady. I would like to suggest that they should re-position it as the new Bali."

THE BILLIONAIRE HAVEN IN SINGAPORE SUFFERING A LOST DECADE

What was previously Sentosa Cove's main strength has become a liability.

The island is the only place in Singapore where foreigners can buy landed property. But with stamp duties doubling to 20 per cent since 2011 for international buyers compared with just 3 per cent for locals, the waterfront oasis is suffering. Multimillion-dollar homes sit empty, and along Quayside Isle, a stretch of restaurants near the marina, businesses have been shutting shop.

Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (7)

Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (6)


After 16 years of receiving more than 6% yield on cost; this little Pig finally cracks the yield of dream. KNS!

Sembcorp Ind declared final dividend of 2 cts and taking full year dividend FY 18 to 4 cts. i.e. 4.7% which is currently the lowest since he bought in 2002 and holds this position.

Highest, Lowest, Average and Total Yield

The Good, Bad And Ugly


This is all about market timing. Your Buy price had already decided whether you are going to make or lose money for HOW LONG.

Who still say market timing is not critical?

19 years across market cycles and he still haven't learnt about market timing and time in the market; then something is seriously wrong with his investing mind!

How To Be Good And Great Investors???

Read? Short money rules

If we strongly believe the truth of the combination :

3. Good investing is 50% psychology, 48% history, 2% finance.

AND

“Superior investors are people who have a better sense for what tickets are in the bowl, and thus for whether it’s worth participating in the lottery. In other words, while superior investors — like everyone else — don’t know exactly what the future holds, they do have an above-average understanding of future tendencies.”

– Howard Marks, Mastering the Market Cycle


Good investing is 48% history and above-average understanding of future tendencies.

Is that simply mean we should be waiting most of the time for market cycles to turn into opportunities to deploy larger war chest?

4 Great investing is 40% skill, 20% luck, 40% inability to tell which is which.


You should already have that 40% skill if you are good investor!

What you need is that 20% luck!


For those JUST started investing near market low of that market cycle; should we say that they are lucky i.e. 20% luck!

But; for those are already in the market across market cycles; then how to get lucky as those in the future who have JUST started investing near market low at the next market cycle?


Think hard!

How to get lucky and make luck with your own hand?

You know how?

Merdeka Generation Package: What you need to know

1. S$100 TOP-UP TO PASSION SILVER CARDS

Seniors will get a one-time S$100 top-up to their PAssion Silver cards. This can be used to pay for activities and facilities at community clubs, entry to public swimming pools and public transport, among other things.

2. MEDISAVE TOP-UPS

Starting this year, Merdeka Generation seniors will get a MediSave top-up of S$200 every year for five years until 2023, to help them save more for healthcare needs.

3. ADDITIONAL OUTPATIENT CARE SUBSIDIES, FOR LIFE

Special Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) subsidies will be available for package recipients, geared towards common illnesses, chronic conditions and dental procedures. All Merdeka Generation seniors will receive these regardless of income, including those without a CHAS card at the moment.

They will also get an additional 25 per cent off subsidised bills at polyclinics and public specialist outpatient clinics.

4. ADDITIONAL MEDISHIELD LIFE PREMIUM SUBSIDIES

Also for life. 

These subsidies will start from 5 per cent of MediShield Life premiums and increase to 10 per cent after seniors hit the age of 75.

This translates to a discount of between S$31.50 and S$918, depending on the premium amount.

5. ANOTHER “PARTICIPATION INCENTIVE” TO JOIN CARESHIELD LIFE

Seniors who join CareShield Life will get an extra S$1,500 (when the scheme becomes available for existing cohorts in 2021).

This is on top of a previously announced S$2,500 sum, meaning that all Merdeka Generation seniors who join the scheme will end up getting S$4,000 of participation incentives.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/merdeka-generation-package-what-you-need-to-know-budget-2019-11253480

Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (6)

Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (5)


DBS declared final dividend of 60 cts and taking full year dividend FY 18 to $1.20

Since he has first invested in DBS in 14 Apr 2003 during SARS; every year since 2003 he is happy with the dividend yield or so called "passive" income.

That year in 2003 he has invested is still the lowest dividend yield over the past 15 years of holding this stock! 

15 years is a long time that is long-term investing that provides free lunch!

Setting Stop Loss Is False Risk Control In Extreme Volatile Market

Option trading for passive income?

Those "Guru" or Trainers who are earning trading courses are telling you that option trading for passive income. Have they told real person, real blow out and chopped fingers?


The term `picking up pennies in front of a steamroller' is linked to Nassim Taleb, an acclaimed author on randomness and risk, whose books describe an investment strategy that has a high probability to yield a small return (pennies), and a small probability of a very large loss (steamroller).

Read? Picking Up Nickels In Front Of A Steam Roller


Last night gathering of two veteran bloggers and two veteran ex bloggers in 2005/2006; we can say that we are the pioneers in this investment blogoshere in Sinagpore.

Real life example of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller'  and killed by steamroller.

Steamroller is slow mover and definitely we have more than sufficient time to pick up pennies and duck safely. Right?

One of them shared how he blew out from option trading and whatever theories and practices he knew are all thrown out!

Setting stop loss is workable and effective in an orderly market and you can get out safely at your stop loss; but in extreme volatile market; your stop loss is NOT REAL!

It can't never control your risk! You may blow out in just one trading day (night in Singapore)! Extreme gap up or gap down. You are gone! Your stop loss is useless!

He lost $160K in one night and giving back all he had earned and more! 

Now; he adopted retiree investing strategy of 80% bonds and 20% equities and focus on earning more to build up even larger capital base when he finally retires in his 50s from his full-time job.

Beyond Position Sizing; It Is Growth Dividend Across Volatile Market Cycles To Keep Your Winners In The Game

Read? Execution, Position Sizing and Financially Irresponsible Stock Positions

"You give some people whose job is to invest money, and by a lot of standards they are good at it. 

Shockingly only 49% of their picks made money. Some of them was successful only 30% of the time. 

At the end of these, almost non of them lost money. They still made a lot of money out of it. "



Uncle8888 also has losers like Noble And Hyflux; but overall he is still surviving as of today!

Position sizing may save us from destruction of our portfolio when we are wrong; but as retail investors who are full of emotions of greed and fear over volatile market cycles; we need something more than just beyond position sizing when we are right. 

Some investing strategy that is inherent to keep us in the Game.

Luckily; Uncle8888 somehow managed to seize it and profit from it. 

Growth-dividend investing strategy? 

and NOT those income stocks that keep coming back for right issues as part of their business model and rarely give out special dividends to reward loyal shareholders!


Outsize special dividends are damn shiok to earlier investors who have bought at much lower price.

SGX

Read? SGX : Bought @ $7.46


After more than two years of consuming 11% of Panadols; SGX is seeing some light as of now and Panadols no more?

Last sold @ $7.76

A New Record Every Month From 2009 to Oct 2016

Every month set a new record for donkey years till Oct 2016!

Every month smiling when Uncle8888 looked at his CPF accounts!

Read? My CPF OA Is The Real And True Wealth Compounding Machine (2)

My Free Lunch Investment Portfolio In SGX

No capital at risk to receive free lunch!

142% war chest is waiting patiently to build up the next batch of free lunch!

Singapore household incomes grew in 2018, income inequality stable

Read? Singapore household incomes grew in 2018, income inequality stable


CW8888: How much is enough to retire comfortably in Singapore for a couple without housing loans and children all independence?

When you NO need to save for your retirement anymore and also debt free; $4,000 to $6,000 is enough???

Among households headed by a Singapore citizen or permanent resident which had at least one working person, the median monthly income last year grew by 3 per cent in nominal terms to S$9,293, up from $9,023 in 2017.

The Real Problem Of Agak Agak (Guess/Estimate) In Investing

Especially true to those investing for income or yield as they MAY not include paper losses and/or paper gains disappearing from the table.

When we calculate to precision of two decimal points and including paper gains disappearing from the table; then investing is not easy. 

It is damn bloody tough to grab those extra % gains on the table to realize it. Bang head! Alamak!

It Is Not Purple

Quite often he ordered the purple ones as vege item for his cai fan!

Hmm ... not purple!

What You Can Absolutely Control In Your Trading Or Investing???

Your position sizing!

The rest of other factors in investing or trading - 3M's Method, Mind and Money Management are just an illusion of you having control!

First HDB Blocks In Singapore

Today. SundayTimes got this news and old photo.

Yesterday, Uncle8888 happened to be there . Ha ha!

Super lucky generation. Landed Properties at HDB price!

Why You Must Be Better At Selling, Buying, Holding, Buying Back And War Chest??? All Are Equally Important!!!

Read? Mind-blowing math animation explains why stock market wealth is an ILLUSION that vanishes in a crash

Almost no one really understands the basics of how the stock market works, and they suffer under the illusion that EVERY stock share is worth the same price as the last share that was traded. (If you’re confused why this isn’t the case, you’ve been lied to… watch the animation below to learn the truth that Wall Street doesn’t want you to ever realize.)

Thus, in a rising stock market bubble, people who hold shares that were purchased at far lower prices suffer under the illusion that all those shares are “worth” the current high price.

As my animation video reveals below, that idea is nothing but illusion. In truth, share prices are only transmuted into real wealth when they are SOLD. Yet it is impossible for all the holders of the shares to all sell at the current price for the simple reason that selling shares causes their price to fall.

Thus, the mathematical reality is that all the outstanding shares of any given public company are really only worth a fraction of the current market price. This is easily demonstrated in any given market correction or crash where share prices plummet. Ignorant investors falsely believe their “wealth” is being “destroyed” when, in reality, that wealth never existed in the first place.



CW8888:

Taming that Illusion and getting nearer to real and lesser illusion of wealth or net worth in the Land of Distribution or going down Mountain.

We can't eat on Illusion of wealth in the stock market!

What I Did Over The Last 19 Years Across Market Cycles And How I Am Preparing For The Next Market Crash

Normalizing these parameters to common denominator of 100% for STI, war chest, cash-flow, stock value and portfolio value (including cash not invested).

This can help him to visualize these parameters relatively. No free lunch. It is about trade off and opportunities.


1) War chest at inception of investment portfolio on Jan 2000 as 100%

2) Stock value at Oct 2007 as 100%

3) Portfolio value at Oct 2017 as 100%

4) Cash-flow in 2007 as 100%

5) STI at Oct 2007 as 100%


Inception --> 2007 Bull High --> 2009 Bear Low --> 2018 New Portfolio Value High --> Feb 2019 


                   STI : 67% -->  100% --> 38%     --> 93% --> 83%

        War Chest : 100% --> 12%  --> 3%      --> 142% --> 142%

 Portfolio Value : 41%  --> 100%  --> 47%    --> 112% --> 103%

      Stock Value : 0%   --> 100% --> 48%     --> 49%  --> 38%

         Cash-flow : 0%   --> 100% --> -116%  --> 21%  --> 11%

Let see how Uncle8888 is doing over the next market cycle.

How Long-term Market Cycles Retail Investors Should Be Measuring Their Investing Performance???

How long-term market cycles retail investors should be measuring their investing performance across many market cycles???

Ownself beats ownself?


Last Bull at Oct 2007 vs Historical Peak and Current

Last Bear at Mar 2009 vs Next Bear (2019/2X) and Current


How much is the opportunity cost in this market timing game?


Climbing up wealth Mountain during wealth accumulation has to be different from going down wealth Mountain during wealth sustainability or decummulation.


Let see!

Second Pot Of Gold Is So Sexy???

Uncle8888 has been following investment forums, chat zones and blogs for decades and he realized that seldom people bother to ask those who have inspired them on seond Pot of Gold this question : 

"How did you get your first Pot of Gold to be so sexy with your second Pot of Gold?"

When you realized how they get their first Pot of Gold; you may shiver at the amount of time, effort, energies and intensity of sacrifices they have made over the years; you may have second thought. They can! I can???

First Pot of Gold really matters!

How do you intend to get yours? Team earn more or team save more?

Have you seriously think about it before dreaming of second Pot of Gold?

新年快乐

Having RESIDENTIAL housing debts on negative net worth in your late 40s or 50s???

Read? Clearing debts early for a "Peace of Mind" is Overrated - Here's why???

Uncle8888 has seen through major recessions and retrenchment in his ex company and had seen his ex-colleague crying in front of him eyes when he lost his job.

Meederka generation could have easily being debt free; but most love the idea of second bite or more of the cherries. 


Huge difference between "Having debts" and "Having debts on negative net worth"

Having debts doesn't means negative net worth. Know the difference!

Having debts on negative net worth is potentially troubled mind when you are retrenched in your late 40s or 50s. OMG! I am retrenched!

Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (6)

Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (5)

Singapore Man of Leisure 3 February 2019 at 10:29:00 GMT+8

CW,

I'll take that as a sign of capitulation that you no longer confident of securing new 10 baggers in the future ;)

Those days of glory are probably behind you...

Fully understand. 

Walking down the mountain...


CW8888 :

Time passed fast!

19 years (Jan 2000 to 3 Feb 2019) as Panda or Koala kind of investor only investing and speculating in local SGX and after so many years in the market he never acquire the wisdom of becoming global investor for diversification and safety. 

Luckily; he didn't become extinct or starve to death after 19 years of fighting Mr Market with only one arm. He was badly wounded a few times; but he didn't died from infections from bad wound. 

Good doses of Panadols can help to ease pains; and after decades he became immune. LOL!

Portfolio Management Concentrate (Verb) or Concentrate (Noun) - Refresh

In investing; we have the following ...

1) Noun and Adjective

2) Noun and Verb

Read? Noun And Adjective As In Investing

Read? CONCENTRATION VS DIVERSIFICATION – LESSONS FROM A FUND MANAGER WHO BLEW UP


Lessons learned. So what did I learn from my plight? First, that I took a big risk when I created a portfolio that was wildly different from Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. That was especially problematic in 2014, when hardly anyone beat the index. Magnifying the problem was my decision to put too much money into my favorite ideas. I totally bought into the notion that it was foolish to invest in my 60th-best idea. What I overlooked was how bad things could get if I was wrong about my second-best, third-best and fifth-best ideas at the same time.

So now I plan to invest a chunk of the family portfolio in index funds—oh, the horror!—and put most of the rest into companies that should do at least okay no matter how the world changes. In other words, I’m buying the kinds of companies owned by Warren Buffett, who has long recommended owning stocks you’d be happy to hold even if the markets were closed for five years. But, as wise as that advice is, I generally ignored it because it would keep me out of stocks that could double in two years. No longer.

My wife is elated that I’m quitting, which should clue you in to the impact she thought lagging the market was having on my life. I’m looking forward to not following the market every day and finishing my second novel. Investing doesn’t have to make you rich, but it shouldn’t make you miserable.


Read? Portfolio Management Concentrate (Verb) or Concentrate (Noun)


How should we describe a competent retail investor?


By adjective and verb?
By adjective and noun?

Read? Laws that can be applicable to our investing strategies and portfolio management

National Steps Challenge Season 4 (2)

Read? National Steps Challenge Season 4

One ex-colleague was suspicious on the accuracy of the Tracker as he didn't think that by random walking across the island could reach more than 100 Km per week and once he reached 40 Km in a day. Ex-colleague said that is a Marathon Race! Chun bo???

Hor?

Trust but verify - SMOL

So this morning, Uncle8888 went to Punggol Park to verify!

The Tracker is quite accurate in reporting the 1 Km distance!

My CPF OA Is The Real And True Wealth Compounding Machine (2)

Read? My CPF OA Is The Real And True Wealth Compounding Machine


I love my CPF interests as it is truly passive income!

In life; all good thing may one day come to a stop! Bo pian!

World's biggest pension fund from Japan reports record $183b loss amid market turmoil

Read? World's biggest pension fund from Japan reports record $183b loss amid market turmoil

TOKYO (BLOOMBERG) - The world's biggest pension fund posted a record loss after a global equity rout last quarter pummeled an asset class that made up about half of its investments.

Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund lost 9.1 per cent, or 14.8 trillion yen (S$183.34 billion), in the three months ended Dec 31, it said in Tokyo on Friday (Feb 1). The decline in value was the steepest based on comparable data back to April 2008. Domestic stocks were the fund's worst performing investment, followed by foreign equities.

While stocks helped the GPIF generate returns for the previous two fiscal years, December's global rout underscored the risks facing the fund since it revamped strategy in 2014 to accumulate stocks and pare domestic bonds.


The GPIF may have little choice but to invest in equities as fixed-income yields, especially those of Japanese government debt, are too low, said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co in Tokyo.

"It makes a sense for the GPIF to hold some risk assets in this environment because yields are low globally and bond investments don't give good returns," Fujiwara said. "Yet from a pensioner's point of view, it takes too much risk on its investments."

More than US$10 trillion in equity value was wiped out from the global markets last quarter as an ongoing trade spat between the US and China raised concern over a slowdown in growth.

The Topix index plunged 18 per cent in the October-December period, the biggest quarterly decline since 2008, while the S&P 500 Index dropped 14 per cent, the most since 2011. Japan's currency strengthened 3.7 per cent against the dollar in the quarter.