As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Thursday, 15 November 2018

What is good Financial Planning? (2)



Wednesday, 15 June 2011

Read? What is good Financial Planning?


Uncle8888 has been following the current hot debate on financial/retirement planning arising from this news article

SINGAPORE - New financial advisory firm MoneyOwl, as its name suggests, wants to help Singaporeans make wise financial decisions that include integrating schemes such as the Central Provident Fund (CPF).


Hmm .. so Uncle8888 has made wise financial decisions with his
Three Taps Solution model for sustainable retirement income for life! LOL!


The Golden Formula for a good financial planning


Good Financial Planning = Saving + Insurance + Investment

Tap 1 : Savings in CPF OA & Cash

Tap 2 : Self-insured medical and health care fund on top of Medishield Life. ( His last life insurance matured at age of 60 as planned donkey years ago in his 30s to retire from full-time employment latest by 60. Since he is no longer human asset generating income after 60 so there is no need to cover human liability with life insurance after 60)

Tap 3 : Investment




Read? Three Little Pigs Net Worth - Assets & Wolf



Many Years No Eat This Dried Chilli Prawn Mee


$4 Dry Chilli Prawn mee is quite different from other prawn mee



Wednesday, 14 November 2018

Leverage For Higher Income???


Asian Pay Television Trust

SGX: S7OU

0.16 SGD −0.16 (49.21%)


With this type of drop of 49% in one day; how does margin calls work for this scenario?

Forced selling?





Tuesday, 13 November 2018

You think it is so easy to retire early??? (Refresh)


Read? You think it is so easy to retire early???


For those joining FIRE movement.

Something for you to think beyond FIRE!

Real people. Real misFIRE!









Monday, 12 November 2018

He Doesn't Want To Retire


Real Person. Real ex-colleague!

He was on his annual leave; but he still went back to office to "tidy" up his desk except that he was wearing casually since he was officially on annual leave and not working.

He loves his job so much???

You can guess why he doesn't want to retire!




Just Spend Below Our Means During Our Wealth Accumulation Phase We Should Be Financially Secured (2)


Read? Just Spend Below Our Means During Our Wealth Accumulation Phase We Should Be Financially Secured
























Next, based on his 15 years of real savings at Dec 2016, Uncle8888 will do simplified version of retirement planning for his retirement income starting from 2017 (age 61) under portfolio return and its associated withdrawal rate and period.


Assuming yearly inflation rate is at 2.5%


A) 3% Yield, 5% Withdrawal rate, 21 years @ 81


B) 4% Yield, 6% Withdrawal rate, 19 years @ 79


C) 5% Yield, 7% Withdrawal rate, 18 years @ 78



Option A can be achieved by index investing e.g. STI ETF.

He can afford to retire simply as local and JB tourist with his monthly Senior citizen Silver concession pass.




Sunday, 11 November 2018

Just Spend Below Our Means During Our Wealth Accumulation Phase We Should Be Financially Secured


Since Jan 2002; Uncle8888 has been downloading his bank monthly statement and tracked them diligently till now.


Monthly




















Yearly
















A real life example of single household income earner since 1995 who has supported a family of 5 members including expenses for his three children's university study.

(1) Total earned income after tax from his full-time job as employee from Jan 2002 to Sep 2016

(2) Total mandatory CPF contributions from Jan 2002 to Sep 2016

(3) Total earned income after tax and CPF from Jan 2002 to Sep 2016

(4) Total household expenses from Jan 2002 to Dec 2016








Saturday, 10 November 2018

The Next Market Cycle Of Bear To Bull To Prove My Investing Strategy Right Or Wrong!


Read the Past and Forecast the Future!

Let see whether the next Great SGX Sales is worth more than 10 years of rotting cash waiting for it to happen. 

Super long wait!

Super test of endurance and patience in receiving low return from war chest!







STI Compounded Return From 1996 to 2017































Thursday, 8 November 2018

Advising Or Teaching Financial or Investing Is A Different Animal Who Doesn't Putting Bulk Of Their Net Worth Into It


Read? Why your Financial Adviser Might be Right to Have Most of Her Net Worth in Real Estate


More than a decade ago; this direct question has been asked ...

Read? SMOL: Trust But Verify???

Do you have more than 70% of your skin in it or just token sum to show show?



Wednesday, 7 November 2018

Clearing debts early for a "Peace of Mind" is Overrated - Here's why???

That peace of mind will happen in late 40s or 50s when rumours start flying around that retrenchment exercise is coming - CW8888


Uncle8888 has lived long enough to meet real people who have been retrenched in their late 40s and 50s.

Their difference when they are retrenched:

Worry less or worry more

Concern less or concern more

Peace of mind or Troubled mind

Read? Key word Retrenched


Huge difference between "Having debts" and "Having debts on negative net worth"

Having debts doesn't means negative net worth. Know the difference!

Having debts on negative net worth is potentially troubled mind when you are retrenched in your late 40s or 50s. OMG! I am retrenched!










Another form of retirement planning for Singaporeans and PRs - 3 or more Taps Solution model



SG Physiotherapist6 November 2018 at 17:48:00 GMT+8

Hi there,

May I know which author’s form of retirement planning/ drawdown do you subscribe to?

ReplyDelete


Uncle8888 happened to see these :






Let us see for ourselves the comparison table :

Uncle8888's Three Taps Solution model for sustainable retirement income for life 


Tuesday, 6 November 2018

Surprise To See So Many Chickens In HDB Heartland


Top Senior Citizen Using Public Transport On PAssion Silver Concession Card (2)


One Indian ex-colleague asked what is the news about Uncle8888 when one of them posted in the chat group.





















Uncle888 tried his hand at translating this news. Pardon from any errors in translation. :-)

Bought monthly pass.  Within two months completed walking around the coast of the island

Uncle cleverly used public transport concession to walk around the coast of the island and only spent $120


Active uncle cleverly used public transport concession and less than two months only spent $120 to complete walking around the coast of the island!

Once he read about the news that in Taiwan one retiree cycled around the coast of Taiwan. Freelance delivery agent, Jacob Ng (62) got that inspiration, two years ago at his 60th birthday, he started to use senior citizen concession card and bought $60 monthly pass, the next day started  (planned) "round the coast tour".

Jacob said : "I often go for overseas tour; but never really tour much in Singapore; might as well make use of this opportunity (in retirement) to do round the coast of island walking trail.

His first stop was at Punggol by following the walking path along the coast of Punggol. When it was getting too dark or it was going to rain; he would stop his walking trail and took MRT and bus back home. The next day; he would resume his walking trail from the last stop point.


By MRT, bus and walk; Jacob spent about two months to complete round the coast of island walking trail. But, because he couldn't really "rest" his feet; he continued to jog the Park Connectors after that.

Last January; he took up freelance delivery job. He took MRT and bus to deliver documents.

He worked about 6 hours daily, one day taking about 15 trips of MRT and bus; because of purchasing monthly pass he has unlimited travel on public transport.

With PAssion Silver concession card; he also shopped at Cold Storage to accumulate points.

Jacob said : " I feel that this card is very good to use and the monthly pass gave him the push (incentive or NO transport cost restriction) to move around and by moving around a lots is also a form of walking exercise.

Due to heavy usage of PAssion Silver concession pass; this morning he received Goodie Bag at Tampines North CC PA event from Guest of Honour, MP Baey Yam Keng, Senior Parliamentary Secretary Ministry of Transport, Culture, Community and Youth.

Another recipient, Chua (65, retiree) also received the Goodie Bag. He said : " I everyday took about 6 MRT and bus trips to walk around and to meet friends. Because I bought the monthy pass; I saved some money on transport. cost As retiree; can save, better save!










Monday, 5 November 2018

Investing vs Trading (6) - Frequency and level of Risk Taking (Refresh)


Read? Investing vs Trading (6) - Frequency and level of Risk Taking


Top Senior Citizen Using Public Transport On PAssion Silver Concession Card


Thursday, 15 September 2016

Read? Unlimited Tavel on MRT & Buses in Singapore and SBS 170 to JB as senior citizen!

Read? Walk One Round The Coastal Singapore And Jog All PCNs of Singapore


Two years later; Uncle8888 totally unexpectedly was recognized by LTA for becoming the top senior citizen using public transport on PAssion Silver concession via $60 unlimited monthly pass. 

Yesterday he received Goodie bag as appreciation for using public trasnport from MP Baey Yam Keng, Senior Parliamentary Secretary for Transport.







Saturday, 3 November 2018

How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation??? (2)


Read? How Do We Know Or Feel The Financial Impact/Burden Of Yearly Inflation After Two Decades Of Inflation???


Beware of inflation, inflation and inflation! 

It is what financial planners and bloggers have been chanting on preparing for retirement!

Looking at Uncle8888's own past 16 years of data points since 2002; not sure why it didn't match up any closer to inflation theory. 

May be he needs more data points in the next one or two decades to finally see the financial impact/burden of yearly inflation!








Friday, 2 November 2018

Thursday, 1 November 2018

STI : Rebounding Off Strong support. Bear Still Sleeping???



Workfare Payouts


After successful appeal for Auntie8888 workfare eligibility last month since Uncle8888 has already retired from his full-time job and no longer earning more than $70K. Auntie8888 has began to receive monthly workfare payouts and also another lump sum for 2017 of same amount.

Workfare payout is good enough to cover daily coffee and also yearly Medi-shield premium.

Uncle8888 will appeal for his eligibility for 2018 workfare next year in Jan 2019 after submitting earned income from his free lance as self-employed to IRAS.



Wednesday, 31 October 2018

As Retail Investors We Can Count Our Chickens Before They Are Hatched!!!


As retail investors we can conservatively count our chickens before they are hatched. Not only we can conservatively count our chickens; we can even set Goal to achieve them despite not having any control over the market. 

We just need Process and War Chest full of bullets to achieve that Goal. 

How important is our War Chest i.e. full of bullets?






Tuesday, 30 October 2018

Portfolio Management Cross Market Cycles Of Bulls And Bears. Last Bull-Bear vs. Current Bull - Next Bear





Current Portfolio value ($) as of 30 Oct 2018 at closing market stock prices.







Monday, 29 October 2018

To Escape Or To Achieve???

It doesn't matters! Don't take it too seriously!

This you must understand it seriously; then it doesn't matters whether to escape or to achieve. Once you have wealth formula in your good hand; you are okay!

Read? Earned Income and Earning From Investment???



Sunday, 28 October 2018

Focus On Your Human Asset First As It Always Pays More And More Dividends


Read? Earn More, Save More And Invest Well???


Do you happen to know any investment bloggers in Singapore who have made their first million from the stock market way before they made their first million from their job?

Post their blog link here!

Read? Climbing your investing or corporate ladder? (4)


Saturday, 27 October 2018

SGX


Quarterly Panadol at $0.075 cents to ease heartache. 

It is about 4% yield if you have headache over some other yield instrument.



Value Meal - Single plate but cheaper!

$5.90


Friday, 26 October 2018

STI ETF


Is STI going to Rebound or Entering Bear Market???


Rebound or Bear akan datang?

What did you see on the chart?
























Thursday, 25 October 2018

Dow erases gains for the year, tumbles more than 600 points as stocks extend October swoon


CW8888: Few more trading days to go before October Effect ended.


Stocks plummeted on Wednesday as a sharp drop in tech shares and worries about corporate earnings added fuel to this month's steep pullback.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 608.01 points at 24,583.42 and erased all of its gains for 2018. The S&P 500 dropped 3.1 percent to 2,656.10 and also turned negative for the year. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.4 percent to 7,108.40— entering correction territory — as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet all traded lower.

"An increasingly murky macro picture is clouding the 2019 earnings outlook leaving investors to largely shrug off a solid start to the third quarter earnings season," said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell. "While valuations have certainly come down in recent weeks, at 16 times forward earnings for the Russell 1000 index, they aren't in the bargain basement by any means, especially if earnings growth slows more than expected next year."

Stocks have taken a beating this month. The Dow has dropped 7.1 percent in October, while the S&P 500 has pulled back 8.9 percent. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has tumbled 11.7 percent.

Netflix tumbled 9.4 percent as investors second-guessed valuations for the once high-flying video streamer. Facebook and Alphabet both fell more than 5 percent, while Apple dropped 3.4 percent. AT&T, meanwhile, dropped more than 8.1 percent after releasing its quarterly results.

Worries about a slowing economy under pressure from rising interest rates grew after the Commerce Department said new home sales fell to a two-year low. The data also hit homebuilder stocks.The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) dropped 3.5 percent.

"The housing numbers were not good," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "There's a lot of uncertainty heading into the end of the year. It just feels like people feel more comfortable spending short-term rather than long term."

Bank shares fell on fears of slowing growth for mortgage and other loans. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) dropped 4.1 percent. Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup both pulled back more than 1.5 percent. Bank of America's stock dropped 3.1 percent.

Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Temasek's first public bond offer more than 8 times subscribed


Read? Temasek's first public bond offer more than 8 times subscribed

SINGAPORE: Temasek Holdings' first public bond offer for retail investors was more than eight times subscribed, said the Singapore state investment firm on Tuesday (Oct 23) after the close of the offer. 

Valid applications of around S$1.68 billion were received for S$200 million worth of bonds offered to the public, said Temasek.


CW : Hmm ... lots of cash not going to the stock market to invest?

So many retail investors/savers prefer Return of Capital than Return on Capital.






Yes or No Answer???



Following this AHTC trial and read how PRPTC counsel Davinder Singh persistently pressing for Yes or No answer!

We should always ask direct question with expectation of yes or no answer.  LOL!



E.g. at investment seminar ...

Did you make more than $1M from the stock market?

If yes; what is your size of own capital?









Earn More, Save More And Invest Well???


Where should we honestly and diligently focus before reaching FI, FIRE or FIRe?

If more investment bloggers in Sinagpore are upfront and more transparent to show the their ratio of their earned income, saving vs net investment gains up to date.

It is quite clear where should we focus once we see that picture?

Invest/trade to achieve or escape?

Earn more to achieve or escape?

Some time; Uncle8888 feels that too many investment bloggers in Singapore have over rated on the investing and not on the earning part. Earn more then only we can work on the saving part to invest well.


In long-term investing, your ACCOUNT SIZE really MATTERS - CW8888


Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (17)





Sunday, 21 October 2018

Do You Need 2.7% T2023-S$ Temasek Bonds After 55?


The answer is No!




Investment Income From Tap 3 For 2018


Read? De-compounding Of Investment Portfolio

Read? How I Fund My Living Expenses After Retirement From Full Time Pay?


With zero divestment income from stocks; 2018 will end as follows against historical data points and another year of under performing as investment blogger.

Achieving 8.2% yield on Own Capital in 2018 - Under-perform!


















Saturday, 20 October 2018

It's a long way down for China stocks as slump burns investors.













































How much endurance do you have as retail investors?

Market timing is as important as time in market as both timing are NOT mutually exclusive.

You have already win or lose at your entry price. Your entry price just needed to be verified months or years farther down the road.

Who are those people who tells you that market timing is not a critical success factor?



WHY PEOPLE LOSE MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET???


Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (6)


Less Analyzing. More Investing - CW8888


It is NOT until; you have learnt and discover what works for you in the stock market; you are more likely to continue to lose money in the stock market.

It is not much different from playing Mahjong!

You lose to others who are winning and better at the Money Game!


Thursday, 18 October 2018

Keppel's Multi-baggers stock M1

Walau!

45. M1 is not a new business for Keppel. Keppel was one of the founding shareholders in 1994, before its telephone service was launched in 1997, and the IPO in 2002. We have worked with and supported M1 for over 20 years, and it has yielded very good
returns.

46. Keppel has invested S$170 million over the years, and in return received S$737 million of dividends and proceeds from the sale of some shares. In addition, Keppel’s present 19.33% stake, held through Keppel T&T, had a market value of S$291 million as at 21 September 2018, before we announced our offer.

47. In short, M1 has been a good investment for Keppel. We believe that with the necessary transformation, it can continue to be a valuable asset for the Group. But we have no illusion that the transformation journey will be quick or easy. It will take at least a few years. In the meantime, subject to the approval of IMDA, we are offering a compelling premium to minority shareholders of M1, who are not prepared to wait and bear the related risks, to realise their investment in M1 upfront. 


Is CPF OA 2.5% Compound Interests A Low Return On Capital???


Read? Salutation To This Warrior: 17 Years Long Service And Outstanding Award For Bringing Food To Monks In The Temple Of Capital


No re-investing of dividends from Kep Corp which was bought in Sep 2001 at $1.32 till now. All dividends were refunded through CPFIS back to CPF OA to earn 2.5% compound interest since Dec 2001.

After 17 years, ROC based on total compounded interests from Dec 2001 to Dec 2018 = 135%

Average ROC per year = 7.9%

The beauty of compounding will only happen near the tail end and then it will make the Average looks attractive.

Compounding interest separates the rich from the broke. The great Albert Einstein once said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn't … pays it.”


The 1st decade of dividends sitting in CPF OA  earning 2.5% return was boring!

Any difference from ugly duckling or ugly caterpillar?




Wednesday, 17 October 2018

Real Challenge To Assumption By FI, FIRE or FIRe Investment Bloggers


Read? Singaporeans’ average life expectancy forecast to rise to 85.4 years in 2040: Study


CW8888: Did you get your FI, FIRE or FIRe number right based on your assumption?



SINGAPORE: Singaporeans will be living longer lives in 2040, according to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

The result of the study released on Wednesday (Oct 17), ranks Singapore third in the world, with an average life expectancy of 85.4 years in the year 2040.

Those living in Spain are forecast to have the longest life expectancy, at 85.8 years, followed closely by Japan at 85.7 years.

The United States is forecast to drop the most in ranking among high-income countries, from 43 in 2016, to 64 in 2040. Average lifespans in the US is only expected to increase 1.1 years.

Overall, all countries are "likely to experience at least a slight increase in lifespans", says the report.

The increase in Singaporeans' life expectancy can be attributed to its health system and how key health issues are addressed, says the study on health and life expectancy.


“The future of the world’s health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories,” said Dr. Kyle Foreman, Director of Data Science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and lead author on the study. “But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.”

The top six health drivers that explain most of the future trajectory for premature mortality are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, tobacco use, alcohol use and air pollution.

CAUSES OF PREMATURE DEATH

The study, published on Tuesday in the international medical journal The Lancet, projects a significant increase in deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, and lung cancer, as well as worsening health outcomes linked to obesity.

In 2016, the top 10 causes of premature death in Singapore were ischemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, stroke, colon and rectum cancer, suicide, chronic kidney disease, liver cancer, and breast cancer.

In 2040, however, the leading causes are expected to be lower respiratory infections, ischemic heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease, lung cancer, chronic kidney disease, liver cancer, colon and rectum cancer, stroke, hypertensive heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases.

ALTERNATIVE 'BETTER' AND 'WORSE' SCENARIOS POSSIBLE

The study is unprecedented in scope, Dr Foreman said, and provides more robust statistical modeling and more comprehensive and detailed estimates of risk factors and diseases than previous forecasts from the United Nations and other population studies institutes.

IHME researchers leveraged data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to produce forecasts and alternative “better” and “worse” scenarios for life expectancy and mortality due to 250 causes of death for 195 countries and territories.

Researchers produced forecasts of independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income, and years of education, along with 79 independent drivers of health such as smoking, high body mass index, and lack of clean water and sanitation. They then used information on how each of these independent drivers affects specific causes of death to develop forecasts of mortality.

“Inequalities will continue to be large,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.

“The gap between the ‘better’ and ‘worse’ scenarios will narrow but will still be significant. In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely. But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet.”

In a “worse” scenario, life expectancy decreases in nearly half of all countries over the next generation. Specifically, 87 countries will experience a decline, and 57 will see an increase of one year or more. In contrast, in the “better” scenario, 158 countries will see life expectancy gains of at least five years, while 46 nations may see gains of 10 years or more.


Monday, 15 October 2018

Salutation To This Warrior: 17 Years Long Service And Outstanding Award For Bringing Food To Monks In The Temple Of Capital



17 years long service and outstanding award to Keppel Corp (Sep 2001 to Oct 2018)

About 14.7% CAGR over 17 years


Average dividend yield on cost is about 2.5% per month or 30% per year









Read? Just a few multi-baggers may be enough for your kid's university fund - Updated


What is the moral of story for retail investors?















Sunday, 14 October 2018

Trekking from Tuas to Tanah Merah


Read? The Last Longest Wooden Jetty In Singapore


CW8888: For those who can trek; you can consider local trekking as local tourist especially when you have just recently retired. A sure way to pass your time quickly while you  transit from your full-time job routine to something else.

You have days, weeks or months to think about it!

Nicholas Walton : A 53km walk from Tuas to Tanah Merah ferry port in one day shows Singapore in a new light.


A three-way test for your portfolio??? (2)


Read? A three-way test for your portfolio???

Read?  ‘Studying hard’ not a sure-win to investment success


4. Practise diversification (having a portfolio made up solely of Singapore stocks is not proper diversification) and don't keep actively trading around.


Every time when Uncle8888 reads something like this :

Diversify, diversify, diversify . 

Don't be Panda or Koala in the stock market; you will be become extinct very soon!

Chun bo; after more than 17 years with only Singapore socks in SGX; Uncle8888 still haven't become extinct!

It is never about the Method! There is no such thing as the right Method for anyone. It is about your own outcome. You choose your own Poison and let your own experience and outcome determine your own right Method!


Method is over-rated!























Take Risks Now And Reap Rewards Or Remain Status Quo And Wait For Eastern Wind???



Can pictures really hint us on what to do?

Take risks and reap rewards or remain status quo and wait for Eastern Wind to win the battle!

It is all about the price to pay; the risks we take and the rewards we reap. How bad is our status quo?



























Friday, 12 October 2018

My Investment Portfolio : A Few Warriors At The Battlefield And An Army Of Monks Chanting At The Temple Of Capital


What sort of investing strategies is this?

Just a few Warriors out there at the battlefield fighting hard to bring back food yield at about 8% to feed an army of Monks doing nothing but chanting for the next Bear market to come at the Temple of Capital


Like that can survive meh?









Seafood Soup (2)


Read? Seafood Soup


This time is the right stall at Blk 127 coffeeshop.

Fish soup and rice sold out so you eat whatever is available when your turn come. 

Sliced pork, pork ball and fish maw Ee Mee soup with one slice of fish.











What FIRE people do when the market’s on fire


Read? What FIRE people do when the market’s on fire

I suppose you’ve heard by now that the stock market DJIA, -2.13% SPX, -2.06%  dropped big-time Wednesday. Thursday wasn’t so great, either.

As usual, a move like this has caused quite a bit of angst, worry, and pandemonium on social media and in the news. People are downright fearful and upset.

Want to know how I responded as an early retiree? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Oh, I worked out, took a walk in an early Colorado snow, and played some video games. But I didn’t panic. In fact, I didn’t even know the market was heading down until I saw it later on Twitter TWTR, +0.85%  . I don’t watch the market much and I’m certainly not living my life based on whether it goes up or down. On a daily basis I give it less thought than what I’m having for dinner that night.


So how did I get to the point where I don’t care about the market? And more important, how can you get to that point and retire early no matter what the market does? Well, that’s what I want to share with you today.

Before I get started, let me say that much of this article might seem like I’m boasting. I’m hopeful you’ll read it as it’s meant: as advice from a good friend who’s been there and who’s willing to tell you the truth even if it stings a bit.

This is the one (yes, ONE) thing you need to do to retire early without fear that a market drop will kill your finances:

You must build in some margin of safety into your retirement plan.

And the more margin and number of ways you build it in, the better.

To explain a bit, you need to develop several efforts that will protect you in case something bad happens—you get sick, your property is destroyed or stolen, you get sued, or the market drops big time. Any of these (and more) can happen to you in retirement. If you’re prepared for them in advance, you will sleep as sound as a baby despite the challenges.

There are lots of options for creating margins of safety, but here are the five most useful.

1. Invest your assets to generate multiple streams of income

CW8888's version is Three Taps Solution model for sustainable retirement income for income



Retirement is less about building assets and living on them than it is about generating a livable income in retirement.

To illustrate this, let’s assume you need $50,000 a year to live on in retirement. Which of these two options do you think is better?

• You have $1. 25 million in investments which you can withdraw at 4% a year to get to $50,000.

• You have $600,000 invested in rental real estate that throws off $50,000 in income per year.

Now you could argue that the first is “better” because you own more, but the fact is that you make $50,000 in both scenarios. It’s the income that’s most important, not the size of the assets.

Given that you want/need income, isn’t it better to have multiple sources coming in? Of course it is.

This is why I have structured our assets to include income from rental real estate and dividends in addition to being able to draw from assets. In fact, if you invest correctly you can earn enough off your assets that you never need to draw them down (which is where we are). In this case, the market’s performance is a non-factor. As long as the income keeps flowing, you’re fine no matter the value of your assets.

In addition, by having multiple streams flowing in, you know that if one goes away or is severely constrained, you have others to pick up the slack. One is good, two is better, three even better, and so on.

2. Create additional income separate from investments

Besides arranging assets to churn off income, consider other ways to grow income. Developing a side hustle is a great option. Two amazing benefits to developing a side hustle include:

• Helping you get to retirement much faster. In fact, a side hustle can be the vital part to allowing you to retire in 10 years or less.

• Providing yet another stream of income in retirement so you both earn more and have an even more diversified sources of income.

And if you pick the right side hustle, one that you enjoy, you can earn extra income and it will never feel like work.

After a year of retirement I bought a business and can truly say I’ve enjoyed working on it. It gives me a fun, creative outlet and something to challenge me a couple of hours every day. It’s not burdensome and yet it does provide a need to keep active mentally. After all, you do not want to retire then crawl into a hole. This side business allows me to keep “in the game” without being too taxing. It also provides a very nice extra income.

3. Build a bigger nest egg than you need


One of the biggest issues early retirees have with a market drop is with a situation like this:

• You need $50,000 per year in income from your assets in retirement.

• You have $1.25 million in assets, so at 4% you can withdraw $50,000 per year.

• Then your assets fall to $1.1 million and now you have $44,000 per year.

Oops.

The problem here is that the retiree is playing it too close with their funds. Everything has to go right for the numbers to work.

Here’s a news flash: everything NEVER goes right. Something always happens. Income is lower than expected. Expenses are higher than expected. And so on.

It’s easy to combat this by saving more than enough for your needs. Consider this scenario:

• You need $50k per year in income from your assets in retirement.

• You have $1,750,000 in assets, so at 4% you can withdraw $70,000 per year, more than enough to cover your spending and add to your next egg.

• Then your assets fall to $1.25 million and now you have $50,000 per year.

You’re still OK even after your assets fell by almost 30%.

See how this margin of safety can be so powerful?

4. Earn some extra income

CW8888: OMG! This is low income job! Even lower than landscape and security jobs. Okay. okay.

Cannot like that and anyhow compare to full-time or part-time employment class of job. Understand that clear difference between part-time and free-lance job:-)

Read? One Year After Retirement From Full-time Job As Employee

Read? Sources Of Cash Flow In 2018 


Once you retire you’ll find that the thought of going back to work is close to being as painful as pulling out your fingernails. It’s just something you don’t want to do.

But if push comes to shove, you could go back to work either as part of your retirement plan or as a safety measure in case the market leaves you with a shortfall.

A simple $15 an hour job for two days a week (16 hours) will earn you $12,480 a year. At 4%, that’s equal to investments of $312,000.

This is why having a part-time job (or a side hustle) is so great for retirement. Which is easier, working two days a week or saving an extra $312,000? I think you know the answer.

And the truth is that most people retiring early or even considering it could earn significantly more than $15 an hour. We’re talking teachers, business people, doctors, and so forth with many valuable and marketable skills. It would quite easy for them to earn much more than $15 per hour, making this suggestion even more beneficial.

If you don’t want to go back to work, you can always sell some things to provide temporary income relief. Most American households are so crammed with stuff that having a sale would actually make life more pleasant.

I walk by homes where people park outside their garages for the simple fact that the garages are filled with “stuff”. And these are 3,000 square foot homes. When you fill up a house that big with so much stuff that it takes over your garage, you need to sell some stuff. And don’t even get me started on those who rent storage units long term to keep stuff they will never use.

Sell your stuff, declutter your life, and make some extra money along the way to tide you over.

5. Cut back on spending

Even a retirement budget can be trimmed in most cases, so if the market collapses and your income suffers, get out the chopping block.

The most likely categories for cutting back include travel, entertainment, eating out, and the like—all the discretionary expenses that many Americans consider needs but are really luxuries.

And if things get really drastic, you can permanently lower some large expenses by downsizing your home. You’ll save on so many expenses that almost any market drop can be compensated for.

So you can see how each of these suggestions can provide a margin of safety to protect you when bad things happen. Even better than having one of them is having multiple ones so you have backup plan after backup plan. That’s how you can live in retirement peace and not even pay attention to the market.

How to get margins of safety

This raises the question, how do you get these margins of safety? Here are some thoughts:

First of all, it’s personal finance 101. You need to earn as much as you can, save as much as you can, and invest for growth initially and then income. I break this down into the simple acronym E-S-I. Do these for 20 to 30 years and you’ll be set.

Second, consider developing a side hustle along the way. Even an extra $10,000 per year can make a big difference. If you don’t want to “trouble” of creating a side business, consider getting a part-time job when you retire to help ease the financial pressure a bit.

Third, as you get closer to retirement (5-10 years out or so), look for ways to invest that generate higher returns than the 4% withdrawal rate allows. Real estate is a great example of this.

Finally, consider postponing retirement a year or two if it allows you to accumulate extra assets for a needed buffer.

If you do these things now in preparation for retirement, you, too, can then ignore the stock market drops and withstand many other calamities that might come your way.

Then you can spend more time on the really important stuff—like wondering what’s for dinner.

Dow tumbles over 500 points, bringing 2-day losses to more than 1,300 points

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday in a second straight scary day on Wall Street as investors dumped equities around the globe because of fears of rapidly rising interest rates, a possible global economic slowdown and overly ambitious tech valuations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 545.91 points lower at 25,052.83, bringing its two-day losses to more than 1,300 points. The S&P 500 dropped 2.1 percent to 2,728.37 and posted its sixth straight decline. The broad index also closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. The Nasdaq Composite pulled back 1.3 percent to 7,329.06 and briefly entered correction territory at its lows on Thursday.

The Dow fell as much as 698.97 points at its lows of the day. The indexes bounced after a report said President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet at next month's G-20 summit, briefly giving traders hope a full-blown trade war with the country could be avoided.

CW8888: October Effect really arh in 2018?

October, a month known for major market sell-offs in the past, has been a brutal month for investors so far. The S&P 500 has lost 6 percent during the month so far and is now higher by just 2 percent for 2018.


Thursday, 11 October 2018

Dow plunges more than 800 points in worst drop since February, Amazon and tech shares lead the rout

Stocks sank on Wednesday as a steep decline in tech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates sent Wall Street on pace for its worst day in eight months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 831.83 points lower at 25,598.74 as Intel and Microsoft fell more than 3.5 percent each. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 4 percent to 7,422.05.


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