As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth and Gifts for your loved ones!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down


Get your Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers here!


Simply with no high rental overheads, we pass the cost saving back to you!

We offer a varied selection of Corsages, Boutonniere, Gift of Flowers, Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers

We also do flower/fruit arrangements in baskets, along with other items that customers bring in. We charge from S$15 onwards for that.

F1 C1 BH 1 H1

Click here and then scroll down to view more hampers ...

Email CreateWealth8888 to order your gifts

When you have made more and more money from the stock market, please remember to send beautiful gifts to your beloved ones.


Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Wednesday, 1 October 2014

On Blog Leave from 3 to 7 Oct 14


Read? On Blog Leave from 7 to 10 Aug 14

Round 3 on BMW-C 

Bus, MTR, Walk and Cycle.





Discovering New Territories.







Tuesday, 30 September 2014

Planning is useless??? (4) Revised

 

 Read? Planning is useless??? (4)

 

Live blog of the latest in #OccupyCentral, where protestors have dug in for a third day of demonstrations, refusing to budge until Beijing agrees to free elections.

 

Last night, Uncle8888 LL has changed his hotel from Jordan to Sha Tin to avoid Kowloon and Hong Kong's island completely. 

 



 

 

 

 

 


Planning is useless???



 

Third update: Noble shares tumble, traders fear CIC could sell more shares

By anita gabriel
 
THE sharp fall in Noble Group's shares on Tuesday signalled that investors fear there could be more share sale ahead by the commodity trader's major shareholder China Investment Corp (CIC), said Maybank Kim Eng Research.

Noble shares fell 10 Singapore cents or over 7 per cent to S$1.295 on Tuesday on news reports that CIC is looking to raise as much as S$405 million by selling about a third of its shares in the commodity firm via a married deal.

The company drew a trading activity query from the Singapore Exchange as a result of the steep fall. The counter jumped to the top active list in the morning session with some 390 million shares worth some S$511 million done.

It is not positive that China's largest sovereign wealth fund is actually cutting losses on their long-term investment based on their original cost. This is especially so considering that Noble was supposed to be a strategic investment for CIC, indirectly helping China manage their raw material requirements," said Maybank Kim Eng.
 

Q3 2014 Investment Performance Report


A Goal-based Approach Investing Strategy

Uncle8888 has adopted a Goal-based Approach investing strategy by setting for himself a 10-year progressive Goal Targets to be achieved for each year from 2012 to 2021.


Our investing journey is not Horse Race or Rat Race where we compete against others. It is our investment Marathon Race where we set our own pace and compete against ourselves to win our own race.

Year 3: Q3 2014 Result

Achieved 22.2% against 25% of 2021 Goal Targets.


(Too much cash rotting in the bank as war chest)















 Investment Portfolio XIRR

Track, Measure and Visualize!



Without doing it; how to revise investing strategies and to improve year-on-year investing performance?



















Investment Portfolio's XIRR includes all investable cash plus the current stocks value at market closing price as on 30 Sep 2014.


Since one year ago: +1.9%
Since 1 Nov 2008: +5.8%
Since 1 Jan 2003: +10.0%
Since 1 Jan 2000: +9.2%




Riding the market cycles of Bull and Bear






























Liquidity and Permanency
 

We have to maintain Liquidity of Capital (War Chest) for the Next Bear and Permanency of staying Invested for the next Bull since we can never be able to effectively time the market.

After taken back 100% of his Investing Capital and some profits off the table for his War Chest; it is going to be like Year 2000 restart; except this time Uncle8888 is armed with Master Degree in Stock Market and going for his PhD. in Stock Market.

It is going to be more exciting in the next Bear!

This time, regular readers will be able to watch "Full Time" actions on how investing lessons for PhD course are conducted here.

In the last two courses, readers could only watch "Half Time" actions since Uncle8888 has only started to blog in 2006.
 
When will Mr Bear come?
 






















































































Retirement Income for Life

The model:











Tap 1: Survival Money

The cash flow from Tap 1 doesn't depend on stock market condition.

Current: 65.2%   vs. Target: 67%

Still Work In Progress ...
 
 
 
 
 

Sunday, 28 September 2014

Famous Failures As In Human Assets vs Financial Assets: The Great Divide!!!



Read? Famous Failures

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." -  Thomas A. Edison


"I have lost money on 999 but win 1 ten-baggers. I have not failed!"  -  Anonymous retail Investor

Here are a list of quotes to overcome your fear of failure:

“You’ll always miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
Wayne Gretzky
“I really don’t think life is about the I-could-have-beens. Life is only about the I-tried-to-do. I don’t mind the failure but I can’t imagine that I’d forgive myself if I didn’t try.”
Nikki Giovanni
“No man ever achieved worth-while success who did not, at one time or other, find himself with at least one foot hanging well over the brink of failure.”
Napoleon Hill
“Success is often achieved by those who don’t know that failure is inevitable.”
Coco Chanel
“Defeat is not the worst of failures. Not to have tried is the true failure.”
George Edward Woodberry
“You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don’t try to forget the mistakes, but you don’t dwell on it. You don’t let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.”
Johnny Cash
“Do not fear mistakes. You will know failure. Continue to reach out.”
Benjamin Franklin
“Forget about the consequences of failure. Failure is only a temporary change in direction to set you straight for your next success.”
Denis Waitley
“I honestly think it is better to be a failure at something you love than to be a success at something you hate.”
George Burns
“I’ve come to believe that all my past failure and frustration were actually laying the foundation for the understandings that have created the new level of living I now enjoy.”
Tony Robbins
“What would life be if we had no courage to attempt anything?”
Vincent van Gogh
“I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody.”
Bill Cosby
“One who fears failure limits his activities. Failure is only the opportunity to more intelligently begin again.”
Henry Ford
- See more at: http://quotivee.com/2013/articles/failure-is-the-mother-of-success/#sthash.2Q4v1Yhd.dpuf
Famous Failures As In Human Assets vs Financial Assets: The Great Divide!!!


Where???


Failures as in Human Assets


Yesterday, you have failed or you have even failed the worst that you have never see before. The worst failure ever!

So what?

You can still go to sleep. May be sleepless night. May be wide awaken till the next morning sun rises.

When tomorrow arrives, you learn more, gain more insights, have better ideas, ............more of this  ....some more of that .....


You have another brand new 24 hours to work on your past failures and continue forward. What is there in yesterday to hold you back?


Do you have to "recover" your yesterday's failure and pay back on your past mistakes?  No?

Failed again Today. Never mind! There will always be
Tomorrows. In fact, there are many tomorrows if tomorrow can still come.
Failures as in Financial Assets

Lehman Brother became Lemons
Geniuses in Long Term Capital became idiots
Today famous failures as in financial assets. Tomorrow will become History!
In investing, we can't afford to keep making mistakes and thinking that we can learn from 999 losses and win 1 ten-baggers.
In investing, yesterday's losses will add on to your bigger recovery baggage to do much more just to break even.
In investing, should we listen to this man?


"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." -  Thomas A. Edison

or listen to this man ....


Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1 - Warren Buffett
  
How many 9s can you afford to fail?
One 9, double 99, or triple 999?
Me?
Just one 9 already half dead!
Why?
Uncle8888 is not Cat!
 
Cats got 9 lives!



How will the Future You thank you?




























Uncle8888 said Thank You! You have done well for your financial planning.


1. You have cut losses on your ILP and avoid this time bomb.

2. For many years, you have resisted your wife for upgrading to bigger and spacious 5-room HDB or Executive. Now, you have plenty of cash in CPF OA earning the best interest rate in Singapore @ 2.5% CAGR.

3. You have two low cost group insurance coverages.

4. You have three endowment policies for your three children to fund their university education. The last endowment policy will mature before the age of 60 as the escalation cost of premiums from the age of 60 is significant! This was the best advice coming from my life insurance agent.  It is good that you got yourself educated earlier in your life that once you are retired you are not an valuable asset that will need protection by life insurance. You just need comprehensive medical insurances and self-insured funding to get through the rest of your life.



5. You have awaken not too late at early 40s and seriously started to plan and taken short-term trading and long-term investing investing as the road to reach financial independence by 55; but you have missed the target by 1.5 years. It is better late than never. LOL!

6. Against the common wisdom of housing loan as good debt, you thought that it was better to fully paid up your HDB housing loan as early as possible. Consequently, being debt-free, you were in better position to support your wife's idea of becoming full time housewife to look after her three kids. Wife happy. Man peace. LOL!
















Saturday, 27 September 2014

Shocking Discovery On My ILP. This is timeless blog post since ILP will be around for a long time!



Do you need to learn from your shock?


Read? Shocking Discovery On My ILP (Re-posting)



Diversified or Concentrated Investment Portfolio of stocks???



Me?

Diversified or Concentrated Investment Portfolio of stocks???

























Me?


Just a portfolio of pillow stocks, some rotten stocks waiting to be swapped out and plenty of rotting cash waiting to find potential pillows to sleep better for the rest of the retirement life.

Just one more cycle should be more than enough to get good night rest!
 
Leave the market to younger folks to slog it out?






Wilmar: 10 : 1



Wilmar: 11 Rounds

10 (Win) : 1 (Loss)

Since then, Uncle8888 has admitted defeat and retired from the Ring fighting Wilmar.




























Luckily, Uncle8888 is not addicted to buying back for Round 12!

You look at the above chart again. You may understand what he meant.


Some stock prices may not recover to our purchase price in our lifetime. Dividends may not be helpful in easing our headache and heartache.

 








Some words of wisdom by SMOL:

Investing and trading can be an addiction no different from addiction to sex, gambling, drugs, alcohol, computer gaming, etc.

So money don't matter if you''re an addict.

Most don't make money at the end of this journey - on hindsight, they would have wished they had bought whole life insurance instead....

"Buy term, invest the rest" sounds intelligent; not so if you have lost most of your investment money...

Most investors knew??? the markets is where the majority subsidise the few.







Interesting comments?


Createwealth8888September 26, 2014 at 1:50 PM 

Now do you think you may have made a mistake?






  • CW8888 : hahaha, I am waiting for your comment. To be frank, not yet regret, I think I will regret only when I realise the loss! Let's see how it goes in 10 years time as I intended to hold it till 55 remember? Hehe
  • My cure is very simple. Use dividends to ease headache. LOL!
  • CW8888, hahaha, ya, I still remember your vitamins (Dividend) analogy... 

  • Dividends for Super is not that high right? By the time it covers maybe we are in heaven liao LOL 
  • B : hahahaha, ya, not high... so, to answer you : yes, we might already be in heaven liao lol


  •  


    Wednesday, 24 September 2014

    5 Things You Should Know About Risk and Your Investments




    Risk is an integral part of investing. Generally speaking, it is the counterbalance to return. Although we hear many money managers and advisors talk about "risk management," it is a rather ambiguous phrase. Today, risk and volatility are often used interchangeably, which is an overly simplistic definition promoted by academia. However, a recent memo published by Howard Marks, the Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, does a fantastic job at providing a more accurate description. 

    Marks may not be familiar to the average investor but he is highly respected among the world's best money managers, including Warren Buffett. In short, risk carries many different forms and cannot be completely quantified. Here are a few key points I took from his memo, titled, "Risk Revisited."

    1. Volatility is not risk. Academia has defined risk as volatility because it can be measured. It is a foundational concept underlying the majority of financial models. Stocks are often assessed using their betas, or their fluctuations, in relationship to the market. In fact, beta has become perversely ubiquitous with risk.

    This fallacy often lulls investors into a false sense of security and is usually coupled with a woeful lack of understanding of risk. For example, the utility sector's beta is about half that of the Standard & Poor's 500 index (depending on the time frame measured). It would be a grave mistake to assume that by purchasing a utility, one is exposed to half of the risk of the market.

    2. Risk is the potential to lose money permanently. Continuing with the utility company example, there are a plethora of risks associated with stocks. Volatility may provide a modicum of insight into the overall risks. However, it dupes the investor by failing to account for anything company specific. If the market were to drop 10 percent because of a geopolitical conflict, volatility or beta might do an admirable job of forecasting the utility company to decline roughly 5 percent.

    Yet, it fails to predict the impact falling natural gas prices or a change in legislation may have on any particular company. Additionally, if the entire market declines from a global macro event, capital is not permanently lost. A patient investor can usually wait for a recovery. Only when you sell the investment do you realize an actual loss. When something fundamentally alters a company's business, the risk has the potential to be permanent. 

    Think about what the iPhone did to BlackBerry or what the iPad has done to personal computers, or PCs. Beta, volatility and even crystal balls failed to predict these fundamental shifts.

    3. Risk is necessary. Attempts to predict the future will most often lead to failure. However, an investor can understand how the risks relate to each company without necessarily predicting the exact outcome. Great investors are astute at thinking of a range of possible outcomes and selecting investments that have more ways to win than lose.

    If I own a company that sells natural gas, I have to consider the range of outcomes if gas prices will rise, fall, or remain flat over coming years. Clearly, there is risk should prices fall or even stay flat. However, if I feel the stock is appropriately accounting for this risk, and I can envision a number of paths toward higher prices in the future, my downside could be limited and potential reward attractive. As the popular adage goes, "There is no such thing as a free lunch." Smart investors take on a measured amount of risks, which cannot be captured by a stock's historical volatility. 

    4. Nobody knows the unknown, but some investors don't know this. If beta is a reasonable indication of market risk, then one can reasonably estimate performance given a forecast of the overall market. However, most investors realize this is a loser's game, as nobody knows where the market will be in the near and long term. Unlike the earlier gas price example, there are an infinite number of interconnected and complex unknowns or "black swans" that could impact the market. These could be wars, terrorist attacks and disease epidemics, among other possibilities. None of these risks can be captured by historical volatility metrics like beta.

    5. Prudent acceptance of risk is superior to shunning the unknown. Given the widespread reliance on beta as a measurement of risk, modern portfolio theorists have concluded that certain asset classes and subsets of asset classes offer higher returns, while others offer more safety. Eugene Fama and Kenneth French famously touted their three-factor model used to predict expected returns while they were both professors at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Small-cap stocks are considered risky and thought to offer long-term returns in excess of safer large-cap stocks. If this theory were accurate, though, shouldn't every investor allocate a large portion of a portfolio to small caps

    Of course, the answer is "No." Return is not guaranteed. It is merely possible. A smaller company may face more risks than a larger company, none of which can be precisely known. If the smaller company successfully mitigates those risks while growing their business, the investor ought to be more handsomely rewarded. Regardless of the expected return, the risks remain immeasurable and the outcomes unknowable.

    Some investors are highly conservative and often shun risk. However, this leaves an investor vulnerable to the risk of missed opportunities. Just as it would be imprudent to place all of one's eggs in the proverbial small-cap basket, it would be a mistake to shun risk all together. A far more logical approach is to assess the returns needed by the individual and expose the portfolio to risks the investor can tolerate.

    Risk must be taken or there will be no return. If an investor has a short time horizon, they should wish to avoid illiquidity risk, but they may be comfortable with leverage risk or credit risk. On the other hand, just because an investor has a high risk tolerance does not mean it is smart to take unnecessary risk. The ideal portfolio manager should have a ceaseless desire to understand the risks facing his or her investments, while simultaneously acknowledging he or she can only be sure the future is unknown.

    Tuesday, 23 September 2014

    Discovering Johore by Bus and Walk!


    Read? Planning is useless??? (4)

    A Day Trip to Pontian Kechil



    1. Maju Bus No 96 from JB, Larkin Terminal to Pontian Kechil Bus Terminal: RM 5.40 (S$2.20)



    2. Took bus ride to Pontian Kechil in the morning @ 10 AM and arrived at 11.15 AM


    3. Early lunch at SF Restaurant:

    Walking distance about 5-7 mins from Pontian Kechil Bus Terminal.


     Very near to the seaside.





















    Fresh sea Red Snapper @ RM 90/Kg

    Steam in Teochew style @ RM 72 (S$28.80)




















    Total lunch bill for two : RM 87 (S$34.80)


    4. Pontian Wholesale Fish Market



    Address: Off Jalan Pontian in the direction of Kukup
    Hours: 10:00am plus to around 1:00pm plus



    Walking distance about 10-15 mins from SF Restaurant.

    You can ask for direction from SF Restaurant's cashier when you pay your bill.

     :-)























    4. Pontian "Retail" Fish Market


    This stall sells only fishes that were caught in Pontian's area.

    The sea bass is at least two feet!



























    5. Walking around the town.














    Discovering Johore by Bus and Walk



    More to go ...







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