Your current size of War Chest relative to total investment costs in your stock portfolio may determine your current style as retail investor. War Chest > 50% of total investment costs : Aggressive Attacker War Chest < 10% of total investment costs : Aggressive Defender Are you playing to attack or to defend in this current local market i.e. SGX?
Mr Market is like Dr M who unexpectedly returned to threat our Water Tap. We will be in deep shit if we only have one tap solution for our water need! Do you depend significantly on your investment income to pay your household living expenses for many more future years across market cycles and be threatened by Mr. Market?
TEMASEK Holdings warned of increased near-term downside risks even as buoyant stock markets lifted its portfolio to a 12.19 per cent one-year return for the financial year ended March 31, 2018. The Singapore government-owned investment firm's net portfolio value grew to a record S$308 billion, up from S$275 billion a year ago, according to its annual report released on Tuesday. A year ago, the portfolio returned 13 per cent. The latest results came as key listed holdings posted strong gains over the year; market capitalisation grew 44 per cent for DBS Group Holdings, 91 per cent for Ping An Insurance and 73 per cent for Alibaba Group Holding. Annualised returns over 20 years was 7 per cent, up from 6 per cent a year ago. Dividend income was S$9 billion for the year. Net profit improved to S$21 billion from S$14 billion a year earlier, Temasek said.
5. Public Bank has paid an increasing dividend since 2013. Dividend per share has increased from 58.0 sen in 2016 to 61.0 sen in 2017. Public Bank returned a total of 24% in 2017 including capital gains and dividends. If a shareholder bought 1,000 shares of Public Bank in 1967 and subscribed to all subsequent rights issues, his stake would now be worth RM4.6 million (148,938 shares at RM22.50 per share plus RM1.3 million in gross dividends) – a compound annual growth rate of 19% over the last 50 years. CW8888: RM1.3 million in gross dividends over last 50 years Average gross dividend per year = RM 26K Average gross dividend per year per share = RM 26 or about S$8.67 Amazing! Just one stock! In real life, such retail investors are outliers? Anyone who has relatives still holding Public Bank and now millionaire based on just one stock? How about Uncle8888's dream stock Kep Corp? Over 50 years; may be half a millionaire? Millionaire will be miracle. LOL!
This compounding investment return pornography illustration diagram on how to become rich from investment often shown by many investment writers? No periodic dips in investment portfolio value across market cycles? Not pornographic? Then what! Never confuse compounding interests - 8th Wonder of the World with compounding investment return!
How many marginal retirees (NOT those spending 50% of their investment income) seriously re-think their investing strategy to factor in de-compounding of their investment portfolio towards their last phase of their investing journey?
Time for Uncle8888 to re-think!
What is the acceptable yearly Return on Capital during de-compounding phase and how much improvement is required to sustain this ROC?
CW8888: Fully agreed! This, most of us can do it after FIRE or FIRe! To me, success isn't about money, it's about peace.
I just want to feel a peace. I want to feel calm and present. I want to feel alive. I want to feel at one with the world and myself. I don't want to be shackled by worry about money or the future. I want to feel at ease. Like I've found my rhythm. Like I'm in the right place. That "peaceful easy feeling." CW8888: When we reach FI; we can choose to escape from corporate noises that we cannot control from creeping into our inner shelf and disturb our peace and those moment of angers or frustration when corporate responsibilities and burdens that are imposed upon on us due to our role and position. Man in the middle gets hit, affected or impacted by both lower and upper layers. :-)
How are you feeling now with your investment portfolio? One leg or both legs in our local stock market? Uncle8888's investment portfolio is slipping into Correction soon. Currently; it has slipped 9% from the peak on Jan 2018
We can voluntary downgrade our residential home for more money to fund our retirement and we can also voluntary downgrade our full time job to part-time or free lance for more free time or more non-monetized time to pursue other interests.
Downgrading = More money and/or more free (non-monetized) time! Time is fairest of all. Everyone has just 24 hours no matters who you are!
What I learnt from my neighbour who is taxi uncle! Cannot suka suka don't drive! For example, self employed like home-based tutors can sing song and sip coconut juice on whichever day they wish; but rental-based tuition centre tutors have to work at least X or XX hours for "free" before they do same like home based tutors who can sing song and sip coconut juice. Read? Hey! Not All Self-Employed (Own Boss) Can Suka Suka! (2)
The moral of the story ... Nature of works made hell of difference!
Read? Part-Time And Free Lance Jobs If you think that 14 to 21 days of annual leaves are good enough to pursue your leisure, vacations or travels throughout your lifetime; by all mean you don't have to retire from your full-time job. Why retire from full-time job? More free time without having approval from bosses! Primary reason. No?
Singtel is also our local investment bloggers favorite yield stock too. Big name! Singapore Government did give Singaporean a tiny stake in asset ownership by giving large discount but now scared already and dare not do it anymore. During AFC, sitting on paper losses on this asset ownership from Government; so many Singaporean KPKB on their paper losses even though it is tiny stake at risks! Time to join the Panadaol Party? Uncle8888's way of simple TA to determine his own entry price. This thing on TA is you see what you saw and I see what I saw! Everyone is loser and winner in TA!
Walter Schloss 1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value. 2. Try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share of stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper. 3. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity. (Capital and surplus for the common stock). 4. Have patience. Stocks don’t go up immediately. 5. Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that, if they can. Don’t sell on bad news. 6. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgement. You can’t be 100% certain by try to look for weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale down and sell on a scale up. 7. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision. 8. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it. The above is a way that I’ve found successful. 9. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to sell. If the stock reaches a price that you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often because a stock goes up 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit. Before selling try to reevaluate the company again and see where the stock sells in relation to its book value. Be aware of the level of the stock market. Are yields low and P/E rations high? Is the stock market historically high? Are people very optimistic? etc… 10. When buying a stock, I find it helpful to buy near the low of the past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and you think it attractive. 3 years before the stock sold at 20, which shows that there is some vulnerability in it. 11. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earnings can change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly. One has to know much more about a company if one buys earnings. 12. Listen to suggestions from people you respect. This doesn’t mean you have to accept them. Remember it’s your money and generally it is harder to keep money than to make it. Once you lose a lot of money it is hard to make it back. 13. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgment. Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions to have in connection with the purchase and sale of stocks. 14. Remember the work of compounding. For example, if you can make 12% a year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 years, taxes excluded. Remember the rule of 72. Your rate of return into 72 will tell you the number of years to double your money. 15. Prefer stocks over bonds. Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reduce your purchasing power. 16. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you. Schloss was a high school graduate who never graduated college, but learned from the best (Ben Graham) and all he did was implement Graham’s basic concepts over 5 decades and produced one of the greatest investment track records ever.
We have been reading on super huat retail investors in USA like Agnes Plumb, Margaret Dickson, Paul Navone, Ronald Read and Anne Scheiber. How about Singapore's super huat retail investor? Uncle Chua. Do you happen to know any other retail investors in Singapore who also super huat in their stock portfolio?
Walau! One outlet closed shop this month now. They truly practice cut losses to stop bleeding more cash! Now back to 16 outlets in 9 shopping malls; the same number when he started on Jan 2017. Can PWM really work in F&B when shops easily closed, open or re-opened under different brand or owner? New hires will reset to lower pay? Hmm ...
In our life-cycle of investing; we should be investing largely based on our needs and wants in respect of tight and discipline money management and estimated future cash flow to avoid liquidating any part of our investment portfolio to fund shortfall to meet future years of household expenses. Low return is not ZERO return and it is far better than negative return when we are NOT in the position to inject monthly capital to our investment portfolio anymore. We often hear bloggers in the investment blogosphere warning us about impact of future inflation eroding our cash. So what? Uncle8888 has been living through years of inflation and same as generations before him. The generations before him have survived and so we will survive inflation too. But, we will NOT survive years of negative investment return and followed by years of partial cash draw-down to fund household expenses under negative investment return! Inflation may be painful; but negative return will kill us faster when we are not capable of any capital injection any more! Get it?
Revised method to track investment portfolio management and cash withdrawal to fund household expenses across future volatile market cycles without the support of earned income from full time job and finding how to survive future market cycles.
My Singapore equity consisting of mainly blue chip stocks of the STI component stocks declined over the past weeks. As a whole, it declined 23.6% from my costs of purchases. Some stocks were bought as far back as in 2008. I am of the opinion that to pick stocks for investments is harder with the volatility of stock markets. After buying them, I see them declining later. Holding cash seems to be an option for now. If inflation is benign, then cash will not be eroded due to inflation. Sometimes one wonders whether it is far better to spend money than to invest and then see one’s investments losing values. That is the stage I am at. I have no confidence in investing right now. In personal investment blogosphere; we need more hobbyist bloggers like him without any vested commercial interests. Personal investing with our hard earned saving is tougher than we think after surfacing the cyber world coming across on daily tons of vested interests articles telling investing and trading is simple and easy. You just require their proven methods either FA, TA or FATA or HA
DBS accounts for almost half of total payout, Singtel S$2.8b and the rest S$2.2b Sigh! Uncle8888 sold way too early for Singtel, SATS and STE. Cut losses for DBS during GFC! Hindsight still pain; but good investing lesson forward on how to mitigate emotional pain on psychology of money by exercising strict and tight money management and positioning sizing! Losing smaller and losing bigger! Hell of difference in tahan!
Investing for dividend yield is painful!!! Panadols may not be enough to ease the pain! How possible for Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Ind to rise back to 2007 stock price? Same now for M1, Starhub and Singtel! How possible? Why UOB, OCBC and DBS overshoot 2007 stock price? Business diversification and regional?
Why misers still give away their money? Hmm .. Why arh?
When we don't spend our money on ourselves or our loved ones before we die; someone else at somewhere will be there to happily spend on our behalf as our money cannot disappear by itself.
While Anne Scheiber gave $22 million away, she might have led a more fulfilled life by actually spending some of it on herself and others during her lifetime. Would you rather have $22 million at your death and have frugality be your God or would you rather enjoy your life, cultivate relationships while being generous in the present and have $5 million in the end? I’d rather have the latter. The sin of obsessive frugality is just as bad as the sin of greed. Both are sins of selfishness. Life is More than Compounding Money.
The tail end of compounding interests effect of 2.5% in CPFIS without re-investing of dividends into the stock market. The Turtle is slow but it is still moving forward one step at a time; and over the decades that slowness is nicely compensated without having future nightmares.
Real People. Real Losses CW8888: Time-sharing scam; one ex-colleage lost money his money. One agency stepped in and called for a meeting for investors to put up $5K each and collectively the agency would have enough fund to fight the case and retrieve some lost money. The Agency subsequently also disappeared. Beware! There are scammers looking for a kill and scavengers looking for your dead bodies too. ----------------------------- The ugly truth about grabbing money; even we have lost money to scam. There is nothing to stop another group looking at how to take some more money from us since we have showed our hand openly that we have money to lose and we are also dumb! Dumb can be dumber?
Singtel expects to maintain its ordinary dividend for FY2019 and FY2020 at S$0.175 per share, before it reverts to paying a dividend that comes in at 60% to 75% of its underlying net profit. 52WH : $4.00 52WL: $3.16 Currently at more than 5% yield for the next two years as indicated by Singtel! XD $0.107 on 26 Jul 2018
The Federal Reserve hikes its benchmark short-term interest rate a quarter percentage point. The Fed says in a statement that economic growth has been "rising at a solid rate," an upgrade from "moderate" in May. The central bank points to two more hikes, which would bring the 2018 total to four increases.
CW8888: How can retail investors fully practice this position sizing well across volatile market cycles?
9. Position sizing (maximizing the payoff from edge). Puggy Pearson was a cigar-chomping gambling legend who won the World Series of Poker and was one of the world’s best pool players. When asked about his success, Pearson said, “Ain’t only three things to gambling: Knowin’ the 60-40 end of a proposition, money management, and knowin’ yourself.” Great investors take to heart all three of Pearson’s points, but money management is the one that gets the least attention in the discourse on investment practice. The book Bringing Down the House by Ben Mezrich tells the story of a half dozen students from MIT who deployed a card counting system to make lots of money in Las Vegas. Their system had two parts. The first was the method for counting cards. Here, members of the team fanned out to different tables and developed a signal to indicate when the odds looked good. But the second part of the system is commonly overlooked. The team members knew exactly how much to bet given the odds at the table and the size of their bankroll. Similarly, success in investing has two parts: finding edge and fully taking advantage of it through proper position sizing. Almost all investment firms focus on edge, while position sizing generally gets much less attention. (CW8888: It can be easily understood across market cycles by common wisdom in the investment sphere that it is never wrong to take good profits and leave a smaller position to ride the future market. Position sizing is never easy when we are sitting on giant gains. We will start feeling the emotional pain when market turns against us as we don't like losing! Read? When a Giant Gain Causes Pain (4) Position sizing is far more difficult in practice for retail investors as it is more than just the theoretical or Mathematical part of limiting your position sizing to 10% or less to control risks and damage. How do we sit on giant gains without worrying too much of losing back? High doses of Panadols to cause illusion of not losing or simply don't bother anymore since we will never lose our hard earned saving or compartmentalize our money e.g. house money effect/OPM Read? House Money Effect Bias : The Little Lie We Tell Ourselves. It Helps To Calm Our Investing Mind Across Market Cycles )
Let see how Uncle8888 will be performing in the next Bear. His performance matrix to measure his current investing strategy by not hunting for yield as he is not yield hungry yet! It is on hindsight bias and genius on what he didn't do and what he should have done in 2007. Let see what will be the next drawn-down, the rate of recovery and the next peak portfolio value? Like it or not. Investing is a Game of Strategies!
Walau! Keep reading buying bond is investing in the investment blogopshere and even saw this by invest editor.
Uncle8888 is odd blogger making fuss over classification of investing and lending. He doesn't mind lending his money when the charging rate is closer to credit card late payment charging rate and better will be Ah Long's rate. :-)
Issued at $100 apiece, the stock closes at $103.02 on first trading day
By JAMIE LEE
HYFLUX'S preference shares, issued at $100 apiece, surged as much as $3.10 or 3.1 per cent to $103.10 on its trading debut yesterday. The stock, traded in board lots of 10 shares each, closed the day at $103.02. It attracted attention for its annual 6 per cent dividend rate. Hyflux has the option to redeem the shares on or after April 25, 2018. If not redeemed then, the dividend rate will step up to 8 per cent.
With the minimum purchase under the public offer of 100 shares, retail investors who missed out on the shares in the ballot would have had to fork out some $300 more yesterday for the same number of shares.
They would also have to accept a smaller yield. The dividend yield of the shares at their closing price yesterday stood at 5.82 per cent.
Hyflux sold $400 million worth of preference shares, with $200 million of the shares set aside for retail investors, $190 million placed to institutional players, and the remaining $10 million for its directors, management and employees, and its subsidiaries under the reserve offer.
The offer of these Class A shares - the first batch of preference shares offered by the company - was double its original subscription size of $200 million.
The public offer attracted a subscription rate of five times.
According to the balloting results, about 10,000 applicants who applied for 100 shares each - or put up $10,000 upfront - received 30 shares each.
Five individuals who put up at least $2 million upfront for at least 20,000 shares received 3,170 shares each, costing $317,000. (CW8888: Bao Jiak!)
Hyflux received about $1.4 billion in applications under the placement offer. Under the placement, more than 70 per cent of the preference shares went to private banks.
The rest of the shares were sold to asset managers and banks.
The non-convertible shares are perpetual in nature, which means that they have no expiry date but can be redeemed by the company.
Since Uncle8888 has no intention to close his CPFIS soon; he will have to tap his dividend income from CPFIS through yearly CPF SA/OA interests withdrawal scheme. He will be 62 on Sep 2018 and it is time to unlock his SRS over the next few years.
Investors can invest in Temasek's first retail bond to boostretirement income: Ho Ching Wow! Steady! BUT .... You CANNOT use your CPF or SRS funds to apply for this bond. CPF and SRS are Government initiated retirement tool or facility for our retirement. As of now; can start thinking .. You CANNOT use your CPF or SRS funds to apply for this bond. Why like that? Temasek doesn't represent Government view on the better mean to build up more wealth for retirement through CPFIS and SRS?
With CPF OA $1M, we can apply 5% withdrawal rule i.e. starting with $50K and annual inflation rate @ 2.5%; it can last 20 years. Accumulate $1M in your CPF OA @ 65 and can retire without too much financial worry!
I am 61 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee.
Single household income since 1995 with three children. Eldest son and daughter are now working and youngest son still in his 2nd year uni in SUTD.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I am now executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038.
Last updated: 3 Sep 2017
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