As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth and Gifts for your loved ones!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down


Get your Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers here!


Simply with no high rental overheads, we pass the cost saving back to you!

We offer a varied selection of Corsages, Boutonniere, Gift of Flowers, Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers

We also do flower/fruit arrangements in baskets, along with other items that customers bring in. We charge from S$15 onwards for that.

F1 C1 BH 1 H1

Click here and then scroll down to view more hampers ...

Email CreateWealth8888 to order your gifts

When you have made more and more money from the stock market, please remember to send beautiful gifts to your beloved ones.


Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Friday, 31 October 2014

War Chest Again??? (2)


Read? War Chest Again???


War Chest comes from where?

Some saving from earned income.

Right!!!

Absolutely!!!


But, it tends to be slow and incremental.



Then how?


One of the 3M's in Investing  ....


Money!!!

Your portfolio management is the sure way to re-build your war chest.


Seriously think about it.

Learn from Uncle8888. 

His biggest mistake and regrets in 2009 for NOT taking it seriously in 2007!

He will avoid repeating this mistake for the next Bear.



Read more? Portfolio Management




War Chest Again???



The stock market is a highly dangerous place to build up your wealth. It is not a level playing field. 

There is no such thing as amateur!


You come into the stock market immediately as a Pro if you decided to play in the stock market competing in the same market as the professionals.


 Read? Stock Market Is War - Part 4



Why War Chest again?




Defensive as offensive attacks.


No money fight what war.

Go back to your office desk. 

Open your eyes wide and continue dreaming!



 



 


 

DBS' Q3 net profit up 17%

DBS Group on Friday said its net profit for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2014 was at S$1 billion, up 17 per cent from S$862 million a year ago.





Thursday, 30 October 2014

How to explain what is shit in investing???



You will need at least 15 to 20 years to understand it!




Realistically investment return on your portfolio. 4% or 8% CAGR???



What is your projected CAGR for your retirement planning or financial independence?



 4% or 8% CAGR?





What is the impact?



4%???



Earn more income from your human asset. 

Save more.

Build bigger and bigger war chest for the next few Bear!


Buying fish from NTUC Fairprice???



Just For Thinking ....



How does Fisherman's auntie buy fish from NTUC Fairprice?



Walk up and down once or twice along the fresh fish stall.



No really fresh fish selling at bargain?

So

Look for chicken, pork, or ..... be vegetarian for the day with eggs and tofu!

Some others may be selling at bargain.


Who says fisherman die die must eat fish?


So you are the fishy retail investors?

Die die you must eat fish har!






Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Uncle8888, how do you find multi-bagger stock? (Re-visit)



Like it or not. 

It is a number game once you realize it!


Read? Uncle8888, how do you find multi-bagger stock?



Dow back above 17,000 on higher consumer confidence









NEW YORK: The Dow jumped back above 17,000 on Tuesday (Oct 28) following a strong report on US consumer confidence and another round of mostly solid corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 187.81 points (1.12 per cent) to 17,005.75, its first close above 17,000 since Oct 3. The broad-based S&P 500 gained 23.42 points (1.19 per cent) to 1,985.05, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index soared 78.36 points (1.75 per cent) to 4,564.29.

The Conference Board said the consumer confidence index leaped to 94.5 in October from 89.0 in September, a cheery sign for the upcoming holiday shopping season.

Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Unpacking the 4% Rule for Retirement-Portfolio Withdrawals



Note: This article is part of Morningstar's October 2014 5 Keys to Retirement Investing special report (http://www.morningstar.com/goto/5Keys). An earlier version of this article appeared Jan. 26, 2012. 

The so-called 4% rule has been in vogue for almost 20 years now, taking off in popularity since financial planner William Bengen introduced his research in 1994. This rule back-tested data to demonstrate that retirees withdrawing 4% of their portfolios per year for 30 years had a low probability of running out of money during their lifetimes. Several years later, the Trinity study, so named because it was authored by three professors at Trinity University in 1998, looked back at market data and generally corroborated Bengen's findings. The study concluded that retirees using a 3% to 4% withdrawal rate, combined with annual inflation adjustments, had a good chance of not running out of money during a 30-year period.

Some critics, notably William Sharpe and a team of researchers from Stanford, have since assailed the 4% rule as being too simplistic; others have asserted that Bengen's assumptions about asset allocation were too aggressive for many retirees. Financial planner Michael Kitces has argued in favor of a withdrawal rate that's sensitive to market valuations, an approach that he discusses in this video. More recently, critics have called the 4% rule too ambitious given the feeble return expectations for the bond market as foretold by today's tiny yields. 

Although the debate about safe withdrawal rates is alive and well, I'd argue that the 4% rule isn't an unreasonable starting point for retirees and soon-to-be retirees attempting to gauge whether their spending is sustainable. Importantly, the rule is intuitive--you don't have to be a pocket-protector-wearing owner of a financial calculator to see if your nest egg and spending rate are close to where they need to be. And, to the extent that 4% is a fairly conservative withdrawal rate, it helps shield against the biggest of all risks that retirees face: running out of money during their lifetimes.

That said, successfully employing the 4% rule requires that you understand the assumptions behind it, including the following.

Where Is the Money Coming From?

When it comes to the 4% rule, "withdrawal rate" is something of a misnomer, because you're not necessarily invading your principal to generate the entire 4%. Instead, the 4% can come from bond and dividend income, capital gains distributed by your mutual funds, or selling securities. 

Say, for example, you're about to retire with a $1.5 million portfolio, 40% of which is in bonds and the rest in stocks. Using the 4% rule, your initial withdrawal in year one of retirement would be $60,000. Assuming a 3% income distribution from your $600,000 bond portfolio ($18,000) and a 1.5% dividend yield from your $900,000 in stocks ($13,500), that's $31,500 in bond and dividend income that you could tap before touching your principal. The flexibility to draw your money from a variety of sources--and to not take sides in the income versus total return debate--is one reason that a "bucket" approach to retirement income can make sense for so many retirees. 

The Role of Asset Allocation 

In addition to understanding that the 4% rule doesn't always necessitate selling off assets, investors should also be aware that a 4% withdrawal rate won't automatically be sustainable for each and every asset allocation, particularly ultraconservative stock/bond mixes that generate low real returns. Both Bengen's research and the Trinity study found that portfolios with a mix of both stocks and bonds had the highest probability of long-term sustainability. The reason? Even though retirees may have to tap capital to arrive at their 4% payout, appreciation from the stock component could help offset inflation and periodic invasions of principal, while bonds provide ballast for the equity piece. 

Bengen's original research asserted that an optimal starting allocation when applying a 4% withdrawal rate was 50% to 75% equity, whereas the Trinity study authors, in an update to their original study, corroborated that a starting asset allocation of 50% or more in large-cap stocks helped retiree portfolios achieve the best probability of not running of money. Making room for a healthy component of equities looks especially important right now, given increased longevity as well as the ultralow yields available from fixed-income securities. 

Time Horizon

Like asset allocation, a retiree's time horizon also plays a critical role in the sustainability of a withdrawal rate. Bengen's research looked at the viability of various withdrawal rates and asset allocations over drawdown periods of 30 years, whereas the Trinity study evaluated withdrawal rates over periods of 15, 20, 25, and 30 years. In general, the Trinity study showed that investors with shorter holding periods could employ a higher withdrawal rate than those with longer holding periods. That finding has implications for those who have longevity on their side (they'd want to be more conservative about their withdrawal rates), as well as for those who have reason to believe they have shorter time horizons. (Such individuals could reasonably employ more aggressive withdrawals.) 

Goals : Anyhow strike???



Goals: Do you think star strikers anyhow shoot at the goal post without aiming for a goal?


Year end coming, your bosses are going to set S.M.A.R.T Goals for you to determine your next year salary increment, bonuses, and promotion and review your KPIs achievement for this year.


Ants set Goals for the community (family). Grasshopper dances around and then whispers to the Ants one day ... "Alamak, I forgot about How will the Future You thank you? (2)"


How to set Goals like Ants and still do it like Grasshopper?

Track, measure, visualize, review and revise and revise. 

Quarter by quarter. 

Year by year. 

We may be late in our journey; but we will do our best to arrive.

Read? Q3 2014 Investment Performance Report 

Read? 14 Years of Personal Journey towards Financial Independence when staying employed becomes an option!


How?

Learn from the star strikers!

The Team, The Manager, The Club, and The Fans will thank them!

Who thank us for our own financial goals?

Future Us!!!

 
Goals: Do you think star strikers anyhow shoot at the goal post without aiming for a goal?






Monday, 27 October 2014

Crude and Keppel Corp: Don't ask me leh!!! (2)


Read? Crude and Keppel Corp: Don't ask me leh!!!


Painful?

It is still nothing comparing to the pain in Round 94 hor!

Got Panadol in May 2015.



Crude and Keppel Corp: Don't ask me leh!!!



See for yourself leh!

Uncle8888 also just read charts and follows news too.

That is about all!
 
 



Sunday, 26 October 2014

Yin and Yang of Portfolio
















For long only, retail investors, Bull is Yang. Bear is Yin.

Stocks are Yang in Bull and Yin in Bear. 

Cash is Yin in Bull and Yang in Bear.

In portfolio management across market cycles of Yin and Yang; we will need to counter the Yang with Yin and Yin with Yang.


Uncle8888's Yin and Yang of Portfolio Management

 

 


 








d’Leedon condominium marks its completion

SINGAPORE: Singapore's largest condominium project d'Leedon, near Farrer Road, marked its completion on Saturday (Oct 25). But the 1,715-unit development, which was launched for sale two years ago, still has 254 unsold units - comprising mostly four-bedroom units - as of last month.

And to move sales, its developer CapitaLand Singapore said it will be refurbishing 30 units with additional designer furnishings. Those units will be re-launched next month. 

Wong Heang Fine, CEO of CapitaLand Singapore Residential, said: "The focus is really on buyers who do not want to have the hassle of doing the interior decoration after they buy the units, they just want to move in. So literally, all the 30 units are such that you can just bring your suitcase and move in tomorrow after you purchased the units."

Last month, the developer gave 30 units at its The Interlace condominium a makeover to attract buyers. CapitaLand said it is marketing the units and none have been sold yet. The 1,040-unit development was completed in September 2013 but still has about 170 unsold units as of August 2014.

Saturday, 25 October 2014

As retail investors can we supplement our earned income through active (DIY) investment strategy? Worth the time and effort doing it??? (2)



Read? As retail investors can we supplement our earned income through active (DIY) investment strategy? Worth the time and effort doing it???


Realistically, many of us may have to depend on our earned income from our human asset as it provides good return. 

Right?

Measure CAGR on your human asset and see how?

Uncle8888's CAGR on earned income from his human asset and earning return from his investment portfolio since Jan 2000


Earned Income on Human Asset:  CAGR @ 19.3%

Earning return from investment (Financial Asset) : CAGR @ 8.8%



Full Time vs. Part Time

 Okay?

Worth the effort and time doing it?

 


 





In Investing, which comes first??? (2)


Read? In Investing, which comes first???

A) Know yourself

B) Know your wallet

In investing, which comes first?



The answer is B. Know your wallet!

 

You strongly disagree?



Show you something......















 
CW,

That's similar to how I did it ;)

If not for my increased in ACTIVE earned income, I would not have been able to save 3 times more while working overseas than in Singapore.

7 years tour of duty turned out to be equivalent of 21 years thread milling in Singapore.

Then came 2008/09 and the rest is history...

No goals, no planning.

Just the awareness to scale into the markets late 2009 onwards.

One day I realised I had "enough", and here I am!

(Try to quantify "enough". It's more a state of mind than numbers. Hence most people just move the goal posts as they never ever will reach "enough")



What we will be in the future may depend more on the decisions and actions we do (or did not do) today - than the plans and goals we wrote on a piece of paper ;)

Think less; do more.

For Taoists, its "think less; do less". But that's on another whole philosophical plane...
 



 






















Do you tend to agree now?

Still No?






You got ticket?

Can clarify during Q & A on 17 Jan 2015














Crude Oil. Last 10 years!




Timing the Market??? (2)



Read? Timing the Market???


What wrong with Uncle8888's Timing the Market?




Last six months to Mar 2009 ....

Buy. Buy. Buy!


WTF. Down again!

 







Can buy?

Buy. Buy. Buy!


WTF. Down again!


Can buy?

Run out of money to buy! 
















Last two years till now ....



















Cash is rotting in the bank!


Common mistake ah???


Friday, 24 October 2014

Timing the Market???


One Person said that one of five common mistakes stock investors made is Timing the market.


Chun bo???


For long only retail investors, are you still waiting for Bear market to become rich in stocks?


Mistake meh!!!

Don't anyhow say!!!




Kep Corp: Once it was sold to the level of penny stock.


Wondering any retail investors who have bought Kep Corp when it was once a penny stock (in sunset industry building ships) and still holding it and laughing to the bank just on dividends only.


Do you know anyone?





Thursday, 23 October 2014

Less Talking; More Doing???



Less analyzing. More investing - CW8888


Less thinking; more doing - SMOL



Add one more ...



Less Talking; More Doing - CW8888



Why Uncle8888 has stopped visiting forums for so many years and still doesn't miss them anymore?


Most of the time, there are just too many "good" and convincing talking; but very hard to determine how well they are doing from these "good" talking.


Don't just listen to their talks but watch very close what they are actually doing.




How Chess Players Can Win at Personal Finance


Read? Time Can Change Many Things Including Passion, Love and Hobby (2)


CW8888: Probably the reason why Uncle8888 can win at personal finance. LOL!








One well known, but seldom practiced, strategy in chess is to think a few moves ahead. Chess players are able to increase their odds of success by simply planning for a variety of possible outcomes in the near future. 

The ability to anticipate future problems and opportunities, a skill that chess players often develop, can also help your personal finances tremendously if you apply those abilities to your investments. 

Your financial situation can be improved if you keep an eye toward the future. When you think a bit further down the road you are more likely to make the decision that has the maximum benefit over the long term. Here's how a chess master would approach some common financial situations. 

A chess master buys when demand is low. Are you looking at Halloween costumes? You could have saved a good chunk of money if you bought the outfit last year at the beginning of November. And speaking of clothing, winter clothes like jackets and coats are always on sale in the spring and short sleeves in the fall. Those who think ahead know that they will eventually wear the clothes when the correct season rolls around again and buy them now at a huge discount. The same strategy works for traveling. Everyone likes to go at peak season, but shoulder season trips are typically cheaper and are often a better trip because there are fewer crowds. 

A chess master carefully picks the best college and major. With college costs skyrocketing, it's becoming more and more important to go to a sensible college that doesn't leave you in a massive amount of debt just as you are starting your career. There are certainly cases where a high cost private college is worth the money, but smart chess players weigh the options and pick the path that gives them the most bang for their buck. They consider the type of job they are going to be able to get by getting a degree at a specific school and how long it will take to pay off the loan if they need to take on debt to finish school. It's certainly worth considering if the fame that accompanies going to a more prestigious school is worth the extra financial hardship. Some high schoolers might even ponder whether they need a four-year degree for their chosen career field. Every high school graduate should contemplate all of their higher education options so they don't graduate from college with so much debt that it will crush their financial life for decades

A chess master stays the course because he is able to invest rationally. One of the most damaging moves inexperienced investors make is bailing out when stocks significantly decline in value. Staying the course is difficult when everyone is panicking and making you fear that you'll lose everything if you don't sell your investments. Yet, investing should be based on expected returns. When volatile investments go down, the expected return generally goes up. If anything, there's now a higher chance the investments you own will generate a higher return. A smart chess player might even buy more when the market is low so they can reap the rewards of the recovery. 

 
A chess master will maximize tax-advantaged accounts. Many people have taxable investments earmarked for the long term even while not contributing the maximum possible amount to retirement accounts, which means they are paying more tax than they need to. If you know you don't need the money in the short term, you can get tax perks by contributing to traditional and Roth 401(k)s and IRAs. Long-term investors will come out ahead by stashing as much as they can in tax-preferred retirement accounts. 


With a bit of practice, chess players develop the discipline to think ahead. Start planning a few moves ahead and your finances will benefit too. 


BTW, Uncle8888 is fisherman too. Patience. 

Chess and Fishing!

Planning and Patience hor!

 

 


David Ning is the founder of MoneyNing.com .

Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Retirement Income For Life Planning Model (2)



Read? Retirement Income For Life Planning Model

Read? Long only investors. The Truth of your strategy.



CW,

I think you must be smiling like me when you see straight line extrapolation excel files with X% constant compound returns year after year - unrealistic goal setting and/or delusional planning?



Did SMOL smile again today?



 

Uncle8888 is not planning to depend on the volatile market to fight against future inflation and to provide bulk of the cash flow for living and lifestyle expenses from his passive income investing strategy.

No!


Do you know why SMOL and Uncle8888 smile when we see straight line extrapolation excel files with X% constant compound returns year after year - unrealistic goal setting and/or delusional planning?


Uncle8888 is planning to do this for his Retirement Income For Life strategy.











Can we really depend on volatility of the stock market for our survival without having many sleepless nights?







 


In Investing, which comes first???



Just For Thinking ...


Some may have encounter their first fear and others are seeing more nightmares coming soon after the past week of "horrors".

A) Know yourself

B) Know your wallet

In investing, which comes first?

You tend to agree with A or B?

But, don't tell me it is Chicken and Egg debate.

It is either A or B. Okay?





Investors Pile Into Oil Funds at Fastest Pace in 2 Years


Investors are putting money into funds that track oil prices at the fastest rate in two years, betting that crude will rebound from a bear market. 

The four biggest oil exchange-traded products listed in the U.S. have received a combined $334 million so far this month, the most since October 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Shares outstanding of the funds, including the United States Oil Fund (DBO) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil, rose to 55 million yesterday, a nine-month high. 



Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Kep Corp THIRD QUARTER & NINE MONTHS 2014 REPORT CARD


1. 3Q 2014 Net Profit of S$414 million is 9% lower than 3Q 2013's S$457 million.
 
2. 9M 2014 Net Profit of S$1,159 million is comparable to 9M 2013's S$1,161 million.

3. Earnings per Share of 63.9 cents is comparable to 9M 2013's 64.3 cents.

4. Annualised Return on Equity of 14.5%.

5. 9M 2014 Economic Value Added increased to S$1,032 million from S$736 million YoY.

6. Cash outflow of S$127 million.

7. Net gearing of 0.19x.

 Read? ADDRESS BY MR LOH CHIN HUA, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER






























Since 65% of Kep Corp's Net Profit is from O & M, we will need to look closely at its net order book, operating and net margin to have an idea whether it can survive the gloomy years ahead of falling orders.










Net Order Book at 30 Sep 2014:

S$12.7B, with visibility into 2019





































How to cope with inflation in Singapore?


Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (4)



Read? Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (3)


Uncle8888 told you. Right?

 
Look like Early Birds Discount is irrelevant now.

Late birds are denied entry. LOL!
















 是老的辣





Monday, 20 October 2014

Warren Buffett just lost $1B on this

Warren Buffett does not like to lose money in general, so losing $1 billion before lunch on a Monday morning can not be going down well.

The plunge in IBM shares Monday after its weak earnings results cost the Oracle of Omaha dearly.

The stock fell $15.05 at the open, and Buffett held about 70.2 million shares as of June 30, according to the most recent SEC filings.

That means the sharp decline cost him $1.06 billion—a drop in the Berkshire Hathaway bucket, to be sure, but still noteworthy.

In April, after a prior weak earnings report, Buffett told CNBC he had not "soured" on IBM, that he had bought more stock this year and that he had not sold a share.
The stock was recently the third-largest holding in Buffett's portfolio, trailing only Wells Fargo and Coca-Cola.

Some things to remember about market plunges

Morgan Housel, The Motley Fool 


The funniest thing about markets is that all past crashes are viewed as an opportunity, but all current and future crashes are viewed as a risk.

CW8888:

 








For months, investors have been saying a pullback is inevitable, healthy, and should be welcomed. Now, it's here, with the Standard & Poor's 500 down about 10% from last month's highs.

Enter the maniacs.

"Carnage."

"Slaughter."

"Chaos."

Those are words I read in finance blogs this morning.

By my count, this is the 90th 10% correction the market has experienced since 1928. That's about once every 11 months, on average. It's been three years since the last 10% correction, but you would think something so normal wouldn't be so shocking.

But losing money hurts more than it should, and more than you think it will. In his book Where Are the Customers' Yachts?, Fred Schwed wrote:

There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin either by words or pictures. Not can any description I might offer here ever approximate what it feels like to lose a chunk of money that you used to own.

That's fair. One lesson I learned after 2008 is that it's much easier to say you'll be greedy when others are fearful than it is to actually do it.

Regardless, this is a critical time to pay attention as an investor. One of my favorite quotes is Napoleon's definition of a military genius: "The man who can do the average thing when all those around him are going crazy." It's the same in investing. You don't have to be a genius to do well in investing. You just have to not go crazy when everyone else is, like they are now.

Here are a few things to keep in mind to help you along.

Unless you're impatient, innumerate or an idiot, lower prices are your friend

You're supposed to like market plunges because you can buy good companies at lower prices. Before long, those prices rise and you'll be rewarded.

But you've heard that a thousand times.

There's a more compelling reason to like market plunges even if stocks never recover.

The psuedoanonymous blogger Jesse Livermore asked a smart question this year: Would you rather stocks soared 200%, or fell 66% and stayed there forever? Literally, never recovering.

If you're a long-term investor, the second option is actually more lucrative.

That's because so much of the market's long-term returns come from reinvesting dividends. When share prices fall, dividend yields rise, and the compounding effect of reinvesting dividends becomes more powerful. After 30 years, the plunge-and-no-recovery scenario beats out boom-and-normal-growth market by a quarter of a percentage point per year.

On that note, the S&P 500's dividend yield rose from 1.71% in September to 1.82% this week.

Whohoo!

Plunges are why stocks return more than other assets

Imagine if stocks weren't volatile. Imagine they went up 8% a year, every year, with no volatility.

Nice and stable.

What would happen in this world?

Nobody would own bonds or cash, which return about zero percent. Why would you if you could earn a steady, stable 8% return in stocks?

In this world, stock prices would surge until they offered a return closer to bonds and cash. If stocks really had no volatility, prices would rise until they yielded the same amount as FDIC-insured savings accounts.

But then -- priced for perfection with no room for error -- the first whiff of real-world realities like disappointing earnings, rising interest rates, recessions, terrorism, ebola, and political theater sends them plunging.

So, if stocks never crashed, prices would rise so high that a new crash was pretty much guaranteed. That's why the whole history of the stock market is boom to bust, rinse, repeat. Volatility is the price you have to be willing to pay to earn higher returns than other assets.

They're not indicative of the crowd

It's easy to watch the market fall 500 points and think, "Wow, everyone is panicking. Everyone is selling. They know something I don't."

That's not true at all.

Market prices reflect the last trade made. It shows the views of marginal buyers and marginal sellers -- whoever was willing to buy at highest price and sell at the lowest price. The most recent price can represent one share traded, or 100,000 shares traded. Whatever it is, it doesn't reflect the views of the vast majority of shareholders, who just sit there doing nothing.

Consider: The S&P fell almost 20% in the summer of 2011. That's a big fall. But at Vanguard -- one of the largest money managers, with more than $3 trillion -- 98% of investors didn't make a single change to their portfolios. "Ninety-eight percent took the long-term view," wrote Vanguard's Steve Utkus. "Those trading are a very small subset of investors."

A lot of what moves day-to-day prices are computers playing pat-a-cake with themselves. You shouldn't read into it for meaning.

They don't tell you anything about the economy

It's easy to look at plunging markets and think it's foretelling something bad in the economy, like a recession.

But that's not always the case.

As my friend Ben Carlson showed yesterday, there have been 13 corrections of 10% or more since World War II that were not followed by a recession. Stocks fell 35% in 1987 with no subsequent recession.

There is a huge disconnect between stocks and the economy. The correlation between GDP growth and subsequent five-year market returns is -0.06 -- as in no correlation whatsoever, basically.

Vanguard once showed that rainfall -- yes, rainfall -- is a better predictor of future market returns than trend GDP growth, earnings growth, interest rates, or analyst forecasts. They all tell you effectively nothing about what stocks might do next.

So, breathe. Go to the beach. Hang out with your friends. Stop checking your portfolio. Life will go on.

Majority of Singaporeans worried about saving for retirement: Survey


SINGAPORE: The majority of Singaporeans are concerned about not saving enough for retirement, according to a survey of the middle class commissioned by insurer AIA.

About 55 per cent of Singaporeans said they are concerned, compared with the overall figure of 44 per cent across Southeast Asia, the AIA survey, released on Friday (Oct 20), revealed. The survey also found that Singaporeans think they need about US$900,000 (S$1.15 million) on average in savings for retirement - the highest in the region.

Additionally,  67 per cent of Singaporeans indicated that healthcare was the top cost concern, and the top goal among Singaporeans is to be healthy. About 76 per cent of Singaporeans also said they believe children should be responsible for financially supporting their parents, which is above the regional figure of 70 per cent.

Also revealed in the survey was 74 per cent of Singaporeans indicating they are satisfied with their lives, with older respondents - those 55 years old and above – more likely to be satisfied.

About 500 Singaporeans were involved in the survey, which spanned six countries in Southeast Asia.

Sunday, 19 October 2014

Kep Corp's Order Book and Net Order Book



How bad can it be?

Can tahan?



Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (3)


Read? Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (2)


Update as on 1: 50 pm, 19 Oct 14, Sunday

80% SOLD within a week!


 
Uncle8888's friendly advice. 

Don't think too much whether your time schedule permits or not. 

Buy first! Think later.

There can be ONLY one way to zero.



Uncle8888 is supporting Roland in his effort to organize this event so Uncle8888's readers will get 50% off list price (during early bird period).


17th January 2015,
12:30pm to 5:50pm

NTUC Auditorium

 
Discount code for Uncle8888's readers! 


It is CWFRIEND

$8 only!


BTW, Uncle8888 bought three tickets to go with left and right investment kaki bodyguard.




Don't Just Listen To Their Talks. Watch Closely What They Actually Doing!!!


Read? Super Group


 
CW,

Some people just can''t see recurring patterns.

They either too proud to look at charts, or they keep chanting what you have written before:

Sit tight and patiently wait for multi-baggers?
(Having goals for multi-baggers wrong meh?)


That's the interesting part of investing - knowing when to hold them, when to fold,them.

Wait! That The Gambler song by Kenny Rogers ;)



Don't just listen to Uncle8888's chanting.

Watch closely what he actually did.


Uncle8888 is Black and White man in the stock market?

 






Can we sit tight and still move?

Can we be Black and White at the same time but not Grey?

Can we be Yin and Yang at the same time? 

Sit tight?

Really?

So what is Round 95 and Round 54?



 



 



Sit really tight and still can move.

The Yin and Yang of Long-term Investing?

What are you thinking now?


 Confused?



 

Saturday, 18 October 2014

Super Group : Case Study. Real Person. Real Three shots at Super.



Read? Super Group


Uncle8888 has filled up this chart on Super Group for him and asked him to do his own analysis. 


This is Uncle8888's Way of TA. It is about you and the Market!


Study your own History and think for yourself.

It is looking backward and learning from it.

It is clearly shown in the chart what you have done in the market.




Taking dividends as Panadol???



Wah!

More than 7 years taking dividends as Panadol to ease heartache or headache.


How to feel good about it?

Benchmark to bank interest rate.
 

Really!





The Long and Short side of a trade on Dividend Paying Stocks???



Just For Thinking ...




Long

1. You may be sitting on paper losses; but collecting your dividends as Panadol to ease your heartache or headache. No other overhead charges!

2. You may be sitting on paper gains and happily collecting cash flow and laughing to bank with no overhead charges.

3. You can don't bother as there is no other external pressure upon you to do so. Time may be your friend. No?


Short

1. You may be sitting on paper losses; but still paying out cash flow on daily interest charges and future dividends.

2. You may be sitting on paper gains; but in the meantime "happily"  paying out cash flow on daily interest charges and future dividends.

3. You need to constantly watch out for your payback or cut back as there is an element of time pressure on you to reduce your overhead charges. Time is not your friend. Right?


What is the difference in Long and short of a trade?

Some cannot take pressure and don't like the idea of paying overhead charges while waiting.


Don't try!

It is not going to be fun.









US inequality near highest levels in 100 years: Yellen

WASHINGTON: Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen warned on Friday (Oct 17) that the gap between the rich and poor in the United States is widening and has reached a near 100-year high.

In a speech at a conference on inequality in Boston, the Fed chair did not mention monetary policy nor the current turmoil in financial markets.

Instead, she focused on the widening wealth disparity and how that impacts economic opportunity. "By some estimates, income and wealth inequality are near their highest levels in the past hundred years," Yellen said, noting the gap has grown steadily over recent decades, despite a brief pause during the 2008 crisis.

During the recession, the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the richest Americans lost money, and increased government spending helped offset losses for the less wealthy.

"But widening inequality resumed in the recovery, as the stock market rebounded," Yellen said, noting that "wage growth and the healing of the labour market have been slow, and the increase in home prices has not fully restored the housing wealth lost by the large majority of households for which it is their primary asset." (CW8888: Residential home as primary asset doesn't produce any cash flow to build up wealth. Wealth formula is Wealth = Asset Value + Cash flow. Lacking of cash flow is the missing key in wealth building.)

The Fed chief said that wide wealth disparities can make it harder for the poor to move up the income ladder, and also warned of the burden of student loan debt, which quadrupled between 2004 and 2014. (CW8888: Poor got to borrow and firstly locked into negative growth instead creating wealth from cash flow)

"I think it is appropriate to ask whether this trend is compatible with values rooted in our nation's history, among them the high value Americans have traditionally placed on equality of opportunity," she said.

FALLING LIVING STANDARDS

Yellen said "some degree of inequality" is natural and indeed "arguably contributes to economic growth, because it creates incentives to work hard, get an education, save, invest, and undertake risk."

However, that same inequality can limit access to economic resources for those lower on the ladder, "thereby perpetuating a trend of increasing inequality." Yellen offered no remedies for decreasing the rich-poor gap, but welcomed discussion on ways to better promote "equality of economic opportunity."

She said two "cornerstones of opportunity" are resources available to children and access to higher education, but added that ownership of a family business and inherited wealth can also be important sources of economic opportunity.

"For families below the top, public funding plays an important role in providing resources to children that influence future levels of income and wealth," Yellen said, citing programs like unemployment, welfare, and early childhood education.

She said college degrees also offer a net benefit, despite escalating tuition costs that have contributed to a dramatic increase in student loan debt - the outstanding balance quadrupled from US$260 billion in 2004 to US$1.1 trillion this year. This debt is disproportionately, and increasingly, affecting poorer families and may put college and graduate degrees out of reach for some, she said.

Globally, the gap between the haves and have-nots has reached levels not seen since the 1820s, the OECD said earlier this month, in a report that looked at trends in health, education, inequality, the environment and personal security.

The report said, however, that overall well-being has improved over the past 200 years, despite the enormous increase in income inequality, in part because factors like life expectancy and literacy, which have risen dramatically over the last 200 years.

Yellen said that the trend in recent years in the United States has seen "stagnant or falling living standards for many families."
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