As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth and Gifts for your loved ones!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down

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Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Retirement Income For Life Planning Model (2)

Read? Retirement Income For Life Planning Model

Read? Long only investors. The Truth of your strategy.


I think you must be smiling like me when you see straight line extrapolation excel files with X% constant compound returns year after year - unrealistic goal setting and/or delusional planning?

Did SMOL smile again today?


Uncle8888 is not planning to depend on the volatile market to fight against future inflation and to provide bulk of the cash flow for living and lifestyle expenses from his passive income investing strategy.


Do you know why SMOL and Uncle8888 smile when we see straight line extrapolation excel files with X% constant compound returns year after year - unrealistic goal setting and/or delusional planning?

Uncle8888 is planning to do this for his Retirement Income For Life strategy.

Can we really depend on volatility of the stock market for our survival without having many sleepless nights?


In Investing, which comes first???

Just For Thinking ...

Some may have encounter their first fear and others are seeing more nightmares coming soon after the past week of "horrors".

A) Know yourself

B) Know your wallet

In investing, which comes first?

You tend to agree with A or B?

But, don't tell me it is Chicken and Egg debate.

It is either A or B. Okay?

Investors Pile Into Oil Funds at Fastest Pace in 2 Years

Investors are putting money into funds that track oil prices at the fastest rate in two years, betting that crude will rebound from a bear market. 

The four biggest oil exchange-traded products listed in the U.S. have received a combined $334 million so far this month, the most since October 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Shares outstanding of the funds, including the United States Oil Fund (DBO) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil, rose to 55 million yesterday, a nine-month high. 

Tuesday, 21 October 2014


1. 3Q 2014 Net Profit of S$414 million is 9% lower than 3Q 2013's S$457 million.
2. 9M 2014 Net Profit of S$1,159 million is comparable to 9M 2013's S$1,161 million.

3. Earnings per Share of 63.9 cents is comparable to 9M 2013's 64.3 cents.

4. Annualised Return on Equity of 14.5%.

5. 9M 2014 Economic Value Added increased to S$1,032 million from S$736 million YoY.

6. Cash outflow of S$127 million.

7. Net gearing of 0.19x.


Since 65% of Kep Corp's Net Profit is from O & M, we will need to look closely at its net order book, operating and net margin to have an idea whether it can survive the gloomy years ahead of falling orders.

Net Order Book at 30 Sep 2014:

S$12.7B, with visibility into 2019

How to cope with inflation in Singapore?

Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (4)

Read? Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (3)

Uncle8888 told you. Right?

Look like Early Birds Discount is irrelevant now.

Late birds are denied entry. LOL!


Monday, 20 October 2014

Warren Buffett just lost $1B on this

Warren Buffett does not like to lose money in general, so losing $1 billion before lunch on a Monday morning can not be going down well.

The plunge in IBM shares Monday after its weak earnings results cost the Oracle of Omaha dearly.

The stock fell $15.05 at the open, and Buffett held about 70.2 million shares as of June 30, according to the most recent SEC filings.

That means the sharp decline cost him $1.06 billion—a drop in the Berkshire Hathaway bucket, to be sure, but still noteworthy.

In April, after a prior weak earnings report, Buffett told CNBC he had not "soured" on IBM, that he had bought more stock this year and that he had not sold a share.
The stock was recently the third-largest holding in Buffett's portfolio, trailing only Wells Fargo and Coca-Cola.

Some things to remember about market plunges

Morgan Housel, The Motley Fool 

The funniest thing about markets is that all past crashes are viewed as an opportunity, but all current and future crashes are viewed as a risk.



For months, investors have been saying a pullback is inevitable, healthy, and should be welcomed. Now, it's here, with the Standard & Poor's 500 down about 10% from last month's highs.

Enter the maniacs.




Those are words I read in finance blogs this morning.

By my count, this is the 90th 10% correction the market has experienced since 1928. That's about once every 11 months, on average. It's been three years since the last 10% correction, but you would think something so normal wouldn't be so shocking.

But losing money hurts more than it should, and more than you think it will. In his book Where Are the Customers' Yachts?, Fred Schwed wrote:

There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin either by words or pictures. Not can any description I might offer here ever approximate what it feels like to lose a chunk of money that you used to own.

That's fair. One lesson I learned after 2008 is that it's much easier to say you'll be greedy when others are fearful than it is to actually do it.

Regardless, this is a critical time to pay attention as an investor. One of my favorite quotes is Napoleon's definition of a military genius: "The man who can do the average thing when all those around him are going crazy." It's the same in investing. You don't have to be a genius to do well in investing. You just have to not go crazy when everyone else is, like they are now.

Here are a few things to keep in mind to help you along.

Unless you're impatient, innumerate or an idiot, lower prices are your friend

You're supposed to like market plunges because you can buy good companies at lower prices. Before long, those prices rise and you'll be rewarded.

But you've heard that a thousand times.

There's a more compelling reason to like market plunges even if stocks never recover.

The psuedoanonymous blogger Jesse Livermore asked a smart question this year: Would you rather stocks soared 200%, or fell 66% and stayed there forever? Literally, never recovering.

If you're a long-term investor, the second option is actually more lucrative.

That's because so much of the market's long-term returns come from reinvesting dividends. When share prices fall, dividend yields rise, and the compounding effect of reinvesting dividends becomes more powerful. After 30 years, the plunge-and-no-recovery scenario beats out boom-and-normal-growth market by a quarter of a percentage point per year.

On that note, the S&P 500's dividend yield rose from 1.71% in September to 1.82% this week.


Plunges are why stocks return more than other assets

Imagine if stocks weren't volatile. Imagine they went up 8% a year, every year, with no volatility.

Nice and stable.

What would happen in this world?

Nobody would own bonds or cash, which return about zero percent. Why would you if you could earn a steady, stable 8% return in stocks?

In this world, stock prices would surge until they offered a return closer to bonds and cash. If stocks really had no volatility, prices would rise until they yielded the same amount as FDIC-insured savings accounts.

But then -- priced for perfection with no room for error -- the first whiff of real-world realities like disappointing earnings, rising interest rates, recessions, terrorism, ebola, and political theater sends them plunging.

So, if stocks never crashed, prices would rise so high that a new crash was pretty much guaranteed. That's why the whole history of the stock market is boom to bust, rinse, repeat. Volatility is the price you have to be willing to pay to earn higher returns than other assets.

They're not indicative of the crowd

It's easy to watch the market fall 500 points and think, "Wow, everyone is panicking. Everyone is selling. They know something I don't."

That's not true at all.

Market prices reflect the last trade made. It shows the views of marginal buyers and marginal sellers -- whoever was willing to buy at highest price and sell at the lowest price. The most recent price can represent one share traded, or 100,000 shares traded. Whatever it is, it doesn't reflect the views of the vast majority of shareholders, who just sit there doing nothing.

Consider: The S&P fell almost 20% in the summer of 2011. That's a big fall. But at Vanguard -- one of the largest money managers, with more than $3 trillion -- 98% of investors didn't make a single change to their portfolios. "Ninety-eight percent took the long-term view," wrote Vanguard's Steve Utkus. "Those trading are a very small subset of investors."

A lot of what moves day-to-day prices are computers playing pat-a-cake with themselves. You shouldn't read into it for meaning.

They don't tell you anything about the economy

It's easy to look at plunging markets and think it's foretelling something bad in the economy, like a recession.

But that's not always the case.

As my friend Ben Carlson showed yesterday, there have been 13 corrections of 10% or more since World War II that were not followed by a recession. Stocks fell 35% in 1987 with no subsequent recession.

There is a huge disconnect between stocks and the economy. The correlation between GDP growth and subsequent five-year market returns is -0.06 -- as in no correlation whatsoever, basically.

Vanguard once showed that rainfall -- yes, rainfall -- is a better predictor of future market returns than trend GDP growth, earnings growth, interest rates, or analyst forecasts. They all tell you effectively nothing about what stocks might do next.

So, breathe. Go to the beach. Hang out with your friends. Stop checking your portfolio. Life will go on.

Majority of Singaporeans worried about saving for retirement: Survey

SINGAPORE: The majority of Singaporeans are concerned about not saving enough for retirement, according to a survey of the middle class commissioned by insurer AIA.

About 55 per cent of Singaporeans said they are concerned, compared with the overall figure of 44 per cent across Southeast Asia, the AIA survey, released on Friday (Oct 20), revealed. The survey also found that Singaporeans think they need about US$900,000 (S$1.15 million) on average in savings for retirement - the highest in the region.

Additionally,  67 per cent of Singaporeans indicated that healthcare was the top cost concern, and the top goal among Singaporeans is to be healthy. About 76 per cent of Singaporeans also said they believe children should be responsible for financially supporting their parents, which is above the regional figure of 70 per cent.

Also revealed in the survey was 74 per cent of Singaporeans indicating they are satisfied with their lives, with older respondents - those 55 years old and above – more likely to be satisfied.

About 500 Singaporeans were involved in the survey, which spanned six countries in Southeast Asia.

Sunday, 19 October 2014

Kep Corp's Order Book and Net Order Book

How bad can it be?

Can tahan?

Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (3)

Read? Meet your favorite local financial Influencers live! (2)

Update as on 1: 50 pm, 19 Oct 14, Sunday

80% SOLD within a week!

Uncle8888's friendly advice. 

Don't think too much whether your time schedule permits or not. 

Buy first! Think later.

There can be ONLY one way to zero.

Uncle8888 is supporting Roland in his effort to organize this event so Uncle8888's readers will get 50% off list price (during early bird period).

17th January 2015,
12:30pm to 5:50pm

NTUC Auditorium

Discount code for Uncle8888's readers! 


$8 only!

BTW, Uncle8888 bought three tickets to go with left and right investment kaki bodyguard.

Don't Just Listen To Their Talks. Watch Closely What They Actually Doing!!!

Read? Super Group


Some people just can''t see recurring patterns.

They either too proud to look at charts, or they keep chanting what you have written before:

Sit tight and patiently wait for multi-baggers?
(Having goals for multi-baggers wrong meh?)

That's the interesting part of investing - knowing when to hold them, when to fold,them.

Wait! That The Gambler song by Kenny Rogers ;)

Don't just listen to Uncle8888's chanting.

Watch closely what he actually did.

Uncle8888 is Black and White man in the stock market?


Can we sit tight and still move?

Can we be Black and White at the same time but not Grey?

Can we be Yin and Yang at the same time? 

Sit tight?


So what is Round 95 and Round 54?



Sit really tight and still can move.

The Yin and Yang of Long-term Investing?

What are you thinking now?



Saturday, 18 October 2014

Super Group : Case Study. Real Person. Real Three shots at Super.

Read? Super Group

Uncle8888 has filled up this chart on Super Group for him and asked him to do his own analysis. 

This is Uncle8888's Way of TA. It is about you and the Market!

Study your own History and think for yourself.

It is looking backward and learning from it.

It is clearly shown in the chart what you have done in the market.

Taking dividends as Panadol???


More than 7 years taking dividends as Panadol to ease heartache or headache.

How to feel good about it?

Benchmark to bank interest rate.


The Long and Short side of a trade on Dividend Paying Stocks???

Just For Thinking ...


1. You may be sitting on paper losses; but collecting your dividends as Panadol to ease your heartache or headache. No other overhead charges!

2. You may be sitting on paper gains and happily collecting cash flow and laughing to bank with no overhead charges.

3. You can don't bother as there is no other external pressure upon you to do so. Time may be your friend. No?


1. You may be sitting on paper losses; but still paying out cash flow on daily interest charges and future dividends.

2. You may be sitting on paper gains; but in the meantime "happily"  paying out cash flow on daily interest charges and future dividends.

3. You need to constantly watch out for your payback or cut back as there is an element of time pressure on you to reduce your overhead charges. Time is not your friend. Right?

What is the difference in Long and short of a trade?

Some cannot take pressure and don't like the idea of paying overhead charges while waiting.

Don't try!

It is not going to be fun.

US inequality near highest levels in 100 years: Yellen

WASHINGTON: Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen warned on Friday (Oct 17) that the gap between the rich and poor in the United States is widening and has reached a near 100-year high.

In a speech at a conference on inequality in Boston, the Fed chair did not mention monetary policy nor the current turmoil in financial markets.

Instead, she focused on the widening wealth disparity and how that impacts economic opportunity. "By some estimates, income and wealth inequality are near their highest levels in the past hundred years," Yellen said, noting the gap has grown steadily over recent decades, despite a brief pause during the 2008 crisis.

During the recession, the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the richest Americans lost money, and increased government spending helped offset losses for the less wealthy.

"But widening inequality resumed in the recovery, as the stock market rebounded," Yellen said, noting that "wage growth and the healing of the labour market have been slow, and the increase in home prices has not fully restored the housing wealth lost by the large majority of households for which it is their primary asset." (CW8888: Residential home as primary asset doesn't produce any cash flow to build up wealth. Wealth formula is Wealth = Asset Value + Cash flow. Lacking of cash flow is the missing key in wealth building.)

The Fed chief said that wide wealth disparities can make it harder for the poor to move up the income ladder, and also warned of the burden of student loan debt, which quadrupled between 2004 and 2014. (CW8888: Poor got to borrow and firstly locked into negative growth instead creating wealth from cash flow)

"I think it is appropriate to ask whether this trend is compatible with values rooted in our nation's history, among them the high value Americans have traditionally placed on equality of opportunity," she said.


Yellen said "some degree of inequality" is natural and indeed "arguably contributes to economic growth, because it creates incentives to work hard, get an education, save, invest, and undertake risk."

However, that same inequality can limit access to economic resources for those lower on the ladder, "thereby perpetuating a trend of increasing inequality." Yellen offered no remedies for decreasing the rich-poor gap, but welcomed discussion on ways to better promote "equality of economic opportunity."

She said two "cornerstones of opportunity" are resources available to children and access to higher education, but added that ownership of a family business and inherited wealth can also be important sources of economic opportunity.

"For families below the top, public funding plays an important role in providing resources to children that influence future levels of income and wealth," Yellen said, citing programs like unemployment, welfare, and early childhood education.

She said college degrees also offer a net benefit, despite escalating tuition costs that have contributed to a dramatic increase in student loan debt - the outstanding balance quadrupled from US$260 billion in 2004 to US$1.1 trillion this year. This debt is disproportionately, and increasingly, affecting poorer families and may put college and graduate degrees out of reach for some, she said.

Globally, the gap between the haves and have-nots has reached levels not seen since the 1820s, the OECD said earlier this month, in a report that looked at trends in health, education, inequality, the environment and personal security.

The report said, however, that overall well-being has improved over the past 200 years, despite the enormous increase in income inequality, in part because factors like life expectancy and literacy, which have risen dramatically over the last 200 years.

Yellen said that the trend in recent years in the United States has seen "stagnant or falling living standards for many families."

Kep Corp : Mass cut losses???

Looking at the two charts closely and the past two days trading volume

It is more like massive loss cutting after long accumulation/distribution???

Stop-loss trigger by system trading???

Falling off the cliff!

What do you think?

Long only investors. The Truth of your strategy.

It is really slow!

Slow and steady?


Not so!

See the truth. 

Don't just listen to talks!


Friday, 17 October 2014

Reading this won't make you great! (Think it is a good time to re-read)

CW88888: Reading this won't make us great but may make our mind stronger. No?

Click? Reading this won't make you great!

And finally the most important, and rarest, trait of all: the ability to live through volatility without changing your investment thought process.

This, said Mr Sellers, is almost impossible for most people to do; when the chips are down they have a terrible time not selling their stocks at a loss. They have a really hard time getting themselves to average down or to put any money into stocks at all when the market is going down.

'People don't like short-term pain even if it would result in better long-term results, he said. Very few investors can handle the volatility required for high portfolio returns. They equate short-term volatility with risk.

'This is irrational; risk means that if you are wrong about a bet you make, you lose money. A swing up or down over a relatively short time period is not a loss and therefore not risk, unless you are prone to panicking at the bottom and locking in the loss.

'But most people just can't see it that way; their brains won't let them. Their panic instinct steps in and shuts down the normal brain function.'

STI further down???

You click it bigger and see for yourself.

Tell me what you see.

STI further down?

DBS, Bank of Singapore among top 10 private banks in Asia

SINGAPORE: Local wealth managers, DBS Private Bank and Bank of Singapore, kept their top 10 rankings among private banks in Asia as the industry notched another strong performance in 2013, according to a widely followed industry publication.

Private Banker International (PBI) said on Friday (Oct 17) that DBS Private Bank kept its ninth place in the ranking of wealth managers for the rich, with assets under management (AUM) of US$54 billion (S$68.7 billion) as at December 2013, up from US$46 billion the year before.

Bank of Singapore, the private banking arm of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC), stayed at number 10, with AUM of US$46 billion at the end of 2013, an increase from US$43 billion at end-2012.

PBI estimated that total AUM in Asia rose 18 per cent to a record US$1.387 trillion in 2013 from US$ 1.173 trillion in 2012.
The annual study – which ranks the top 20 private banks in Asia by AUM – saw Swiss bank UBS clinch top spot for the second year in the row with US$245 billion, followed by Citi with US$238 billion.

Uncle, Your TA Chun Bo???

Just For Thinking ....

Hmmm .....

Not exactly chun!

But, after sometime, quite sometime or long time, chun chun!

How to survive round after round?

Bo chun?

You say!

Support and Resistance works!

Only time matters. 

As long as we don't feel it. One day, we certainly don't feel it and 100% sure!

You have?

Thursday, 16 October 2014

What is capitulation? CNBC Explains

Traditionally, the word capitulation describes a surrender between fighting armies. What is capitulation when it's used on Wall Street? What does it signify? We explain.

What is capitulation?

In simple terms, capitulation is when investors try to get out of the stock market as quickly as possible and look for less risky investments. It's also described as panic selling. It's usually based on investor fears that stock prices will fall further than they have. 

Capitulation is usually signaled by a decline in the markets of at least 10% in one day.
In getting out of the market, investors give up any previous gains in stock price. That means they take a financial loss, just to get out of stocks. The thinking is: take a smaller loss now rather than a bigger one later.

Real capitulation involves extremely high volume-or high numbers of traded shares-and sharp declines in stock prices.

Why do investors capitulate?

Suppose a stock starts dropping in price. There are two choices. Investors stick it out and hope the stock begins to appreciate-or they can take the loss by selling the stock.
If the majority of investors decide to wait it out, then the stock price will probably remain stable. But if the majority of investors decide to capitulate and give up on a stock, they start selling and that starts a sharp decline in a stock's price. 

Are there any benefits from capitulation?

Only for those buyers ready to swoop in. After capitulation selling, common wisdom has it that there are great bargains to be had in the stock market. Why? Because everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason, has sold it. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lowest price of the stock.
In other words, some investors believe that capitulation is the sign of a bottom and a chance to get stocks at a cheaper price than before the capitulation took place.

Is capitulation a way to gauge the markets?

Not at all.Capitulation is very difficult to forecast and use as a way to buy or sell stocks. There is no magical price at which capitulation takes place. Certainly during the trading day, stock prices and volumes are monitored and some measurement is used to determine if a capitulation is taking place and will remain so at the end of the day. 

But most often, investors and market watchers look back to determine when the markets actually capitulated and see how far stocks have fallen in price for that one day of trading.

When have there been capitulations?

The stock market crash of 1929 that helped lead to the Great Depression, is a capitulation. In fact, it had more than one day of it.

On Oct. 24, 1929-what's known as Black Thursday-share prices on the New York Stock Exchange collapsed. A then-record number of 12.9 million shares was traded.
But more was to follow. Oct. 28, the first "Black Monday," more investors decided to get out of the market, and the slide continued with a record loss in the Dow for the day of 38 points, or 13 percent.
The next day, "Black Tuesday," Oct. 29, 1929, about 16 million shares were traded, and the Dow lost an additional 30 points. 

More recently, there was a massive sell off or panic selling of stocks on Oct. 10, 2008, in what can be considered a capitulation. Not only U.S. stocks, but global markets had major declines of 10 percent or more on one day. 

Investors flooded exchanges with sell orders, dragging all benchmarks sharply lower. It's believed fears of a global recession and the U.S. housing slump sparked the sell-off.

Keppel Infrastructure Trust NINE MONTHS FY2014 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Group revenue for 9M 2014 was $49.3 million. Operation and maintenance income was $37.2 million, 2.2% lower compared to 9M 2013.
  2. Profit after tax for 9M 2014 was $10.2 million, resulting in earnings per unit (EPU) of 1.61 cents for the period, which was 6.4% lower compared to 9M 2013.
  3. Cash generated from operations was $40.9 million for 9M 2014, 11.3% higher compared to 9M 2013.
  4. Net asset value per unit as at 30 September 2014 was tiny_mce_marker.93 compared to $1.00 as at 31 December 2013, mainly due to the distribution payment of 7.82 cents per unit during the year.
  5. On 26 September 2014, KIT entered into an agreement with NEA to provide additional incineration capacity to the Senoko Waste-to-Energy plant. The upgrade is currently planned to take place between 3Q 2015 and 3Q 2016 and will progressively increase the contracted incineration of the plant by up to 10% from 2,100 tonnes per day. This is expected to increase the operating cash flows from the plant.

Keppel REIT's Net Property Income grows 16.1% year-on-year Achieves positive rental reversion of 32.3% in 3Q 2014 and Maintains healthy annualised distribution yield of 6.4%

  • Net property income for the first nine months of 2014 ("YTD Sept 2014") rose 16.1% year-on-year ("y-o-y") to $117.2 million
  • Achieved positive rental reversion of 32.3% in 3Q 2014
  • Attained high tenant retention rate of 92% in 3Q 2014
  • Strategic rejuvenation of property portfolio with the proposed acquisition of a one-third interest in Marina Bay Financial Centre ("MBFC") Tower 3 on 18 September 2014 and the successful divestment of its 92.8% stake in Prudential Tower on 26 September 2014
  • With the portfolio upgrade, credit rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's have both reaffirmed Keppel REIT's rating at "Baa2" and "BBB" respectively with a stable outlook
  • All-in interest rate remains at 2.2%
  • Proactive leasing strategy with forward renewals of approximately 175,000 sf for YTD Sept 2014
  • Maintained strong committed portfolio occupancy of 99.3%, with seven of 11 office towers fully committed

Oct 2014 Bear Akan Datang???

Kep Corp : Bought @ $9.64 for Round 95

Read? Kep Corp: Sold $10.14

Round 94: ROC 2.3%, 154 days, B $9.85 S $10.14 (Bought back at higher price. Last sold @ $9.05)
Round 93: ROC 5.7%, 67 days, B $8.50 S $9.05

Round 92: ROC 10.6%, 166 days, B $7.98 S $8.89

Oil Drop Makes Drillers Own Worst Enemy; Gas Offers Haven

U.S. oil producers that saw profits soar on the North American shale boom are feeling the downside of success: falling prices and shrinking cash are threatening to slow development.

At the same time, as crude prices approach four-year lows, natural gas companies are experiencing a reversal of fortune after having been shunned by many investors when a supply glut drove the fuel to a decade-low. Gas producers are now viewed as a safer haven than oil companies.
Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL) hit an all-time high in August after striking a deal to become the biggest oil producer in North Dakota, the state with the second-largest output. It has since lost more than $4 billion in value as its shares plunged 38 percent. Meanwhile, Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN), an independent producer whose output is 99 percent gas, has fallen just 13 percent.
“Natural gas is becalmed through this,” Donald Coxe, who manages about $200 million at Coxe Advisors LLC in Chicago, said in an interview. “It is Walden Pond compared to a hurricane in Florida.”

Whiting is one of 26 companies on the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Select Industry Index that have declined more than 30 percent in the past month. Shale producers had shifted their focus to more profitable oil as gas prices fell. Now a growing glut of crude has deflated the price of the U.S. benchmark by 18 percent in the past three months, as gas futures dropped 7.2 percent.

“We’re running into a wall,” said Scott Hanold, an Austin, Texas-based analyst for RBC Capital Markets LLC. “We’re producing more light, sweet crude than we need.”
West Texas Intermediate touched $80.01 a barrel, the lowest since June 2012, on the New York Mercantile Exchange today. Brent prices, an international benchmark, fell to the lowest price since November 2010.

Continuing to Drill

Exploration and production companies “just drill and produce and all at once say, ‘My God, we’ve oversupplied the market,’” T. Boone Pickens, chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said in an Oct. 9 interview. If crude prices stay below $80 a barrel for three months, they “are going to sober up.”

Most companies with strong balance sheets will continue to drill through the downturn as long as prices don’t fall below $80, Scott Sheffield, chairman and CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co., said at a forum in Washington yesterday.

Below $70, “you will see a significant curtailment,” he said. “You’ll see job loss, rig loss, job loss extending into service companies.” 

That’s prompting investors to take a fresh look at companies like Southwestern and Fort Worth, Texas-based Range Resources Corp. because they focus on gas, which many forecasters see as having steady or rising prices with the onset of winter.

Low Costs

Southwestern, based in Houston, has also benefited from operating in a lower-cost area, hedging against future prices and from a spending plan that’s kept cash flow positive.

Southwestern has been spending about $2.75 to produce a thousand cubic feet of gas, well below the average price of $4.45 it sees over the next few years, Michael Hancock, a company spokesman, said today in an interview. “Low costs have become our calling card.”

While the break-even price for oil production can be as low as $50 a barrel in some areas, companies that rely most heavily on debt to fund drilling will be the first to cut back, said Manuj Nikhanj, managing director and head of energy research at ITG Investment Research.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is one of the better ways to evaluate which producers will face the greatest pressure to scale back spending if lower prices continue, he said.

Prices at $80 a barrel through 2015 will reduce cash flow per share at major producers by an average of 17 percent, according to an analysis published yesterday by RBC Capital Markets. Among companies with significant U.S. shale drilling operations, Marathon Oil Corp., Encana Corp, Talisman Energy Inc., Whiting and Ultra Petroleum Corp. will see the most pronounced declines, the analysis shows.

Higher Costs

The past six weeks haven’t been kind to Whiting and others that concentrate on the Bakken Shale, where oil fell below $75 a barrel today, just $7 away from the price producers need to break even, according to ITG. Bakken prices are lower in part because of bottlenecks in getting the oil to refiners.
Once among the hottest drilling regions in the world, activity in North Dakota is looking increasingly at risk as a higher-cost area that may be the first to see cutbacks.

Making matters worse for Whiting, almost 80 percent of the company’s output is oil. Other producers that drill more for natural gas have seen less of an impact. Whiting is also one of the least aggressive among peers in using hedging contracts to lock in prices, which cushion the blow on many producers in the coming months. That leaves the company among the most exposed, according to analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.

In July, Whiting announced plans to acquire Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. for $3.8 billion in stock, a deal that would create the premier oil supplier in North Dakota. Kodiak has hedged about 67 percent of its production for 2014 and 13 percent for next year. Whiting has hedged 2 percent of its 2015 oil output, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chairman and CEO James Volker has said Whiting can make money on two-thirds of its acreage with an oil price of $70 a barrel. The company declined to comment for this story.

“I’m not trying to deny that there would be some shrinkage in our capital budget, but I could see scenarios where we would be down to $60 a barrel and we’d still be drilling,” Volker said in September.

SBM, Teekay in race for Atlanta FPSO

Dutch contractor SBM Offshore and Norwegian rival Teekay Offshore are racing to supply Brazilian independent Queiroz Galvao Exploration & Production (QGEP) with a floating production, storage and offloading vessel to be deployed at the Atlanta heavy oil field.

Oct 2014 Bear Akan Datang???

NEW YORK: US stocks on Wednesday (Oct 15) finished a turbulent day in the red, rallying somewhat from a huge midday drop spurred by worries over global economic weakness and the Ebola epidemic.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.45 points (1.06 percent) to 16,141.74. The blue-chip index had fallen more than 400 points earlier in the session.

The broad-based S&P 500 dropped 15.21 points (0.81 percent) to 1,862.49, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 11.85 points (0.28 percent) at 4,215.32.

The main indices were in negative territory throughout the session, with swings in stocks accompanied by big moves in other markets. Equity markets in Britain, France and Germany closed more than two percent lower, while yields on US Treasury bonds also sank below key benchmarks before rallying.

"We haven't seen this level of volatility since 2011," said Tyson McCabe, senior director of advisory services at Nasdaq. "There are so many different data points coming in, being Ebola or some of the weak US data points, that market participants are really struggling with where to get their read from."

Stocks fell sharply soon after the markets opened following disappointing reports on US retail sales and producer prices. Equity markets then cut their losses but plunged again midday soon after US health officials warned of more potential Ebola cases after a second health care worker in Dallas was diagnosed with the virus.

Stocks began paring their losses again soon after the Federal Reserve's Beige Book said the US economy continues to grow at about the same modest pace of recent months. The market's lurches lifted some investments, such as the Russell 2000, a closely watched small cap index, which rose 1.0 percent.

But "there is more negative than positive," McCabe said. Bank of America fell 4.6 percent after it reported a US$70 million third-quarter loss due to a US$5.3 billion charge on legal expenses following a mortgage-securities settlement.

Other financial equities suffered deep losses, including Dow member JPMorgan Chase (-4.2 percent), Citigroup (-3.5 percent) and Wells Fargo (-2.0 percent).

Dow member Wal-Mart Stores fell 3.6 percent after cutting its full-year sales forecast to two-three percent from the previous range of three-five percent.

Bond prices leaped higher. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury dropped to 2.09 percent from 2.21 percent on Tuesday after earlier falling below two percent for the first time during a trading session since June 2013. The 30-year Treasury fell to 2.88 percent from 2.96 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

Wednesday, 15 October 2014

Super Group

Forming enormous Head and Shoulder?

This one is one of my colleague's favourite stock. 

His investment success story told over lunches and tea breaks.

Now, he is sitting on big losses and too painful to do anything. All his past realized and unrealized gains returned back to the market.

Who says long-term investing will huat and patience will pay off?

Investing like a Cat???

17 hours/day : SLEEPING in the market

Half an hour waking hours : GROOMING for lobangs

Three and half hours : Reading financial, world, local, economy, news, ... news and blog posts. Poking other bloggers and get poked too.

BUT, don't do this in the market. 

It may not worth it. 

It is your heart that is going to die faster and sooner. No?

Tuesday, 14 October 2014

Expect higher food, services costs in 2015: MAS


Blame it higher wages. 

The Monetary Authority of Singapore today stated that the country’s Core Inflation is projected to stay above its historical average over the next few quarters, even as CPI-All Items inflation remains subdued.

MAS Core Inflation, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, averaged 2.2% y-o-y in July–August, similar to Q2 and up from 2.0% in Q1 2014. This relatively firm outcome was largely due to continued pass-through of higher wages and other business costs to the prices of consumer services.

The MAS noted that domestic food inflation could be impacted by higher prices of regional food supplies. At the same time, with the economy at full employment, wages should continue to increase and filter through to prices, in particular, of services items for which demand remains firm, such as healthcare and education.

On a year-ago basis, MAS Core Inflation is projected to pick up gradually into early next year, before easing in the second half of 2015. MAS Core Inflation is forecast to average 2–2.5% in 2014 and 2–3% in 2015.

Oct 2014 Market Crash? Will History repeat itself?

NEW YORK: US stocks finished sharply lower again on Monday (Oct 13) as worries about global growth weighed on the market a day ahead of major company earnings releases.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 223.03 points (1.35 percent) to 16,321.07. The broad-based S&P 500 sank 31.39 points (1.65 percent) to 1,874.74, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index slumped 62.58 points (1.46 percent) to 4,213.66.

After choppy trade earlier, Wall Street stocks turned decisively negative in the last hour or so of the session. The decline was "follow-through selling from last week," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. "It's a continuation of concerns about global growth."

US stocks suffered a massive sell-off last week, with the S&P 500 shedding more than three percent on global growth fears and the Dow ending in negative territory for the year. On Monday, the volatility index, often seen as a measure of anxiety in the market, finished at 24.64, the highest level since June 2012.

Third-quarter earnings season picks up considerably on Tuesday with reports from Dow members JPMorgan Chase and Johnson & Johnson, as well as big banks Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Reports later in the week are due from Intel and Google.

Investors are watching for commentary from multinationals on whether they see weakening conditions overseas will hit fourth-quarter results, Hogan said.
Airline stocks suffered another bad day in the wake of the second confirmed diagnosis of Ebola infection in the United States. American Airlines dropped 7.2 percent, Delta Air Lines fell 6.1 percent and United Airlines lost 7.3 percent.

Petroleum stocks lost ground as US crude prices fell to their lowest level since December 2012. Dow member Chevron fell 1.6 percent, ConocoPhillips lost 3.3 percent and Anadarko Petroleum declined 3.5 percent.

Freight rail company CSX shot up 5.9 percent following reports it was approached by Canadian Pacific about a merger. Canadian Pacific fell 2.3 percent.

Targa Resources Partners will buy fellow midstream company Atlas Pipeline Partners and Atlas Energy for US$7.7 billion, the companies announced. Targa fell 7.4 percent, while Atlas Pipeline Partners advanced 1.3 percent and Atlas Energy jumped 14.9 percent.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles fell in its first day of Wall Street trade. The newly merged Italian auto giant debuted on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol FCAU at US$9.00 a share. Shares closed at US$8.92, after hitting a peak of US$9.55. The US bond market was closed in observance of Columbus Day.

Monday, 13 October 2014

Lian Beng’s 1Q FY2015 profit to shareholders up 58.5% to S$12.0 million

1Q FY2015 revenue increased 10.8% to S$167.6 million on higher revenue from construction segment and workers’ dormitory business

Share of results of associates and JVs improved to S$5 million on recognition of profits from development projects NEWest, KAP Residences, The Midtown and Midtown Residences

Construction order book stood at approximately S$1.0 billion to provide sustainable flow of activities through FY2017

Group’s cash and cash equivalent stood at S$150.9 million as at 31 August 2014, ready to fund potential business opportunities

Group expects core construction business to continue to drive revenue growth and recognition of profits from property development projects to continue to contribute positively to earnings

SembCorp Industries (SCI): Bought @ $4.97 for Round 54

Round 53: ROC 4.1%, 444 days, B $5.24 S $5.49 (Bought back higher for short-term trading) 

Round 52: ROC 5.0%, 65 days, B $3.99 S $4.25 (Bought back higher for short-term trading)
Round 51: ROC 9.6%, 34 days, B $3.47 S $3.83 (Bought back higher for short-term trading)

Round 50: ROC 3.1%, 6 days, B $3.22 S $3.34

Round 49: ROC 7.9%, 91 day, B $3.14 S $3.41

Read?  SembCorp Industries: My 12 Years Story!!!

Sunday, 12 October 2014

Kep Corp

Read? Kep Corp Round 94

Round 94: ROC 2.3%, 154 days, B $9.85 S $10.14 (Bought back at higher price. Last sold @ $9.05)

Occupy Central. Occupy Mong Kok

Occupy Seat!

How will the Future You thank you? (2)

Read? How will the Future You thank you?

Case study for young ones for Future You!

He is 54 yrs old this year.

After reading a few times on CPF Reaching 55 booklet he is still not so clear.

He came to lim kopi with Uncle8888 after someone recommended him to talk to old man. 

Uncle8888 helped to explain and illustrate it on the white board. 

He belongs to one of those CPF Money Not Enough group.


For simple reason.

He has upgraded to 5-room HDB and still has 9 years of outstanding housing loan. His CPF OA balance is not enough to cover his outstanding housing loan.

He doesn't like the idea of down-grading or renting out one room.

Privacy to him is very important.

He has bigger worry now as he has heart illness and currently on long-term medication and may not be eligible for re-employment at 62 based on health reason. 

HR may just retire him at 62.


How will the Future You thank you?

Some planning is not useless!

Saturday, 11 October 2014

STI's Major Data Points since 1990

October Bear?


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