As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth and Gifts for your loved ones!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down


Get your Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers here!


Simply with no high rental overheads, we pass the cost saving back to you!

We offer a varied selection of Corsages, Boutonniere, Gift of Flowers, Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers

We also do flower/fruit arrangements in baskets, along with other items that customers bring in. We charge from S$15 onwards for that.

F1 C1 BH 1 H1

Click here and then scroll down to view more hampers ...

Email CreateWealth8888 to order your gifts

When you have made more and more money from the stock market, please remember to send beautiful gifts to your beloved ones.


Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Monday, 30 March 2015

Q1 2015 Investment Performance Report


Read? Full Year 2014 Investment Performance Report

A Goal-based Approach Investing Strategy

Uncle8888 has adopted a Goal-based Approach investing strategy by setting for himself a 10-year progressive Goal Targets to be achieved for each year from 2012 to 2021.

Our investing journey is not Horse Race or Rat Race where we compete against others. 

No! It is our investment Marathon Race where we set our own pace and compete against ourselves to win our own race.


 Year 4: Q1 2015 Result for Tap No 3 (Cash Flow from Investment Portfolio)

 Achieved 28.5% against 34% of 2021 Goal Targets.





















Investment Portfolio XIRR

Track, Measure and Visualize!


Without doing it; how to revise investing strategies and to improve year-on-year investing performance?



Investment Portfolio's XIRR includes all investable cash plus the current stocks value at market closing price as on 30 Mar 2015.

Since one year ago: -1.6%
Since 1 Nov 2008: +2.3%
Since 1 Jan 2003: +9.2%
Since 1 Jan 2000: +8.5%






































The reality of riding market cycles of Bull and Bear








 



This reality cannot be anyhow extrapolated in any form of theoretical knowledge including the most popular form of compounding interests - the Eight Wonder of the World.

No. You can't!




Embracing Three Taps Solutions to Retirement Income For Life Model









































Uncle8888's Wealth's Formula:

Wealth = Asset Value + Cash Flow

Where Sustainable Cash Flow = Tap 1 + Tap 2 + Tap 3

and volatile market pricing of Asset Value becoming less significant.


 Since Tap No 3 is enough to supply the liquidity needs; Tap No 1 will remain shut.
 
 



Return On Human Asset vs Return On Financial Assets??? (2)


Read? Return On Human Asset vs Return On Financial Assets???


Are we really that good (with FA, TA, or combined FA+TA) in generating good return on our financial assets through our investing knowledge and skills?

or 

We just rise and fall with the tide of market cycles of bulls and bears?


You can see that Uncle8888's yearly Return on his human asset is more favorable across economic cycles of booms and dooms. 

Living on investment income when we are much younger? 

You can make your judgement call after reading this post. 

Which is more reliable source of income for MOST of us?


The rise of Big Bull may have made us feel like Gu Shen and thinking that we may have finally got it "Right"! We are ON THE WAY!



But, the follow-up Big Bear will teach us what is truly the "Right" thing to do after sensing the rising power of earning investment Return during a Bull Run.


His Yearly Break Down chart will show the true picture of his last 15 years of investing journey. The Rise and Fall across market cycles.

Now, he is planning on how to better ride the tide of future market cycles of Bulls and Bears.


Read?  You Can't Predict. You Can Prepare - Updated on 25 Jul 2014





Sunday, 29 March 2015

On Blog Leave from 31 Mar to 3 Apr 15













He will spend 4 days and 3 nights fishing.

Lots of patience. Plenty of luck factors. With some commonly known essential fishing skills.

Hoping for one Lucky Man and his many Unlucky Fishes!


Saturday, 28 March 2015

Return On Human Asset vs Return On Financial Assets???


The Road to Financial Independence may actually be shorter and faster via higher return on human asset WITH higher saving rate.

Shouldn't the younger ones be more focus on generating higher return on their human asset with higher saving rate?

You can see Uncle8888's Return on his human asset vs. Return on his financial assets over the last 15 years since Jan 2000 and make your own judgement.

But, we must also be fully aware that our human asset may have limited growth capability. One day we might not even notice that our human asset has started depreciating and will depreciate down to zero value.

In our working life, in the 1st half we should focus more on our human asset and in the 2nd half we can let our financial assets supplement the return on our human asset. Finally, one day our financial assets will be able to take over the role of providing us the cash flow for life.





Fed's Yellen sees gradual rate hikes starting this year


(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled that the U.S. central bank will likely start raising borrowing costs later this year, even before inflation and wages have returned to health, but emphasized the return to normal interest rates will be gradual.

A downturn in core inflation or wage growth could force the Fed to delay the first increase to borrowing costs since 2006, the central bank's chief said on Friday, but policymakers should not wait for inflation to near the Fed's 2-percent goal before tightening monetary policy. The Fed has held short-term borrowing costs near zero since December 2008.

After the first rate increase, Yellen said, a further, gradual tightening in monetary policy will likely be warranted. If incoming data fails to support the Fed's economic forecast, the path of policy will be adjusted, she said.

"With continued improvement in economic conditions, an increase in the target range for that rate may well be warranted later this year," Yellen said at a monetary policy conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Yellen added that while the Fed is giving "serious consideration" to beginning to reduce its accommodative monetary policy, the timing and the path of a Fed hike would depend on the incoming economic data.

"The actual path of policy will evolve as economic conditions evolve, and policy tightening could speed up, slow down, pause, or even reverse course depending on actual and expected developments in real activity and inflation," Yellen said.

U.S. Treasury yields fell and held near session lows on Friday after the mildly hawkish comments and as investors bought bonds ahead of month-end rebalancing.

Still, traders of U.S. rate futures kept their bets that the Fed will wait until October to raise rates.

Friday, 27 March 2015

Your Brain Is Rigged to Panic in the Next Correction



By now, you're no doubt familiar with the claim by author Michael Lewis in his book, "Flash Boys." Lewis believes high-frequency traders have rigged the stock market, causing harm to Main Street investors. Many respected financial commentators disagree. They believe high-frequency trading is only harmful to day traders, and not to the average investor who is holding stocks for the long term.

Personally, I do not believe high-frequency trading rigs the market against average investors. However, this debate misses the point. The securities industry, together with much of the financial media, has rigged the market, just not in the way claimed by Lewis. They do so by skewing financial news toward negative information. The impact of negative financial news disposes your brain to panic when the market declines.

When investors panic and become anxious, they seek the guidance of "experts," whose financial interest is often conflicted. If these experts are not registered investment advisors, or RIAs, they have no obligation to provide advice that is solely in your best interest. Instead, they are held to the lower standard of providing advice that is "suitable." This loophole gives brokers legal cover to generate commissions by encouraging unnecessary trading at precisely the time when you are panicking.

The prevalence of negative news. As I write this blog post , I am staring at this March 16 headline from CNBC: "Hedge fund manager: It's a 'truly scary time.'" The article features the warnings of Andy Redleaf, the CEO of $4.2 billion hedge fund and mutual fund manager Whitebox Advisors, and his case for why a stock market correction, and perhaps a global recession, may occur.

He may turn out to be right or wrong. I have no idea. I do know the financial media's emphasis on negative financial news preconditions our brains to panic and make short-term investing decisions, which are often not in our best interest. And negative financial news is everywhere. Here's a small sampling of headlines:

-- Dec. 27, 2014: Predictions for 2015: U.S. Stock Market Crash Debated, But The Rich Will Be Richer In This Economy

-- Jan. 14, 2015: Stocks lower on growth concerns, copper plunges
-- Jan. 19, 2015: China seen posting weakest annual growth in 24 years, will spur more stimulus
-- March 16, 2015: Bull market is 'closer to the end' than investors think
For each of the positions asserted in these articles, there's a flip side. They could easily have been presented with a positive spin.

The impact of negative financial news on your brain. There is compelling evidence that exposure to negative information can make you significantly more anxious and sad. According to a 2012 Psychology Today article, "The Psychological Effects of TV News," it also causes you to obsess over your personal concerns, in ways unrelated to the information that initially created your anxiety.

Investors consistently exposed to negative news may be inclined to imagine all kinds of doomsday scenarios, including losing all of their money, a worldwide financial panic and being homeless and destitute. Clearly, when you are in that state of mind, you are in no position to make intelligent, rational and objective investment decisions. 

Prepare your brain. Fortunately, you can take steps to avoid succumbing to negative financial news and panicking about your finances. An article by Gail Schneider, written in October 2008 and published in Positive Psychology News Daily, "The Economic Sky is Falling: Can Positive Psychology Help?" suggests you should put the news in perspective, exercise, meditate and cultivate positive and supportive relationships.

Put the news in perspective. Write down your worst-case and best-case scenarios and estimate the probability each will occur. Be as objective as possible in estimating the most likely outcomes. This process will help you put negative news into perspective

(CW8888: Now, you may know why Uncle8888 likes to stress test his portfolio for the next big Bear or when big negative news hit him hard. When Iceberg hit Noble he wrote down the value of Noble to $0.10 as suggested. Read? Hurray for redundancy. )




The financial media isn't going to do this work for you. Although you can't control negative financial news, or predict the timing of a market correction, recognizing your brain is rigged to panic may help you avoid making poor, short-term financial decisions


Dan Solin is the director of investor advocacy for the BAM ALLIANCE and a wealth advisor with Buckingham. He is a New York Times best-selling author of the Smartest series of books. His latest book is "The Smartest Sales Book You'll Ever Read."

Actionable Advice???



Buy evenly weighted basket of assorted blue chips that drop more than 30% when STI falls below 2,000.


Thursday, 26 March 2015

New savings bonds for individual investors to be introduced

SINGAPORE: The Government and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) are planning to introduce a new type of bonds to help individual investors get a better return on their savings, Senior Minister of State for Finance Josephine Teo said on Thursday (Mar 26).

Speaking at the annual conference of the Investment Management Association of Singapore (IMAS), Ms Teo said the planned Singapore Savings Bonds will be safe investments with principal guaranteed by the Government.

These bonds will have two features to make them more attractive for individual investors: The ability to get his or her money back in any given month with no penalty, and interest rates that are linked to long-term Singapore Government Securities rates.

Unlike bonds that pay the same coupon each year, the Singapore Savings Bonds will pay coupons that “step-up” or increase over time, providing investors with a higher return the longer they hold the bonds, she added.

"In short, the Singapore Savings Bonds will offer the higher returns of a long-term bond and give what investors call a term premium, while retaining the flexibility of a shorter-term deposit, and the safety of an instrument guaranteed by the Government," she said.

Ms Teo said the Government and MAS are still working on the details and will release more information later.

Wednesday, 25 March 2015

My Final Respects To Mr. Lee Kuan Yew at Parliament House


Thank you so much for what you have done for Singapore!

Father of Singapore as a Nation. Father of PAP as the Ruling Party!

Rest In Peace. Amen!

I have been voting for PAP since 21 and will vote for PAP in the next GE in Aljuined GRC!

----------------


This morning, I reached the Parliament House at about 09:15. A large crowd was there much earlier than me so I have to settle for a spot somewhere near the bridge; but close enough to see the entrance to the Parliament House.

Those people at the front were asked to squat or sit so the back row can have their view too. I am sitting behind the man in black shirt. 

Old man cannot squat too long so I have to sit down and wait. 

First time in my life sitting on a road side. OMG!


 


































I walked to the opposite side via underground tunnel to join the Queue at the Parliament House.
































I joined the Queue at 09:58



















Under the hot sun for hours, WOW! We appreciate the kindness from Fullerton Hotel for a cup of ice cool water.

Thank you. Fullerton Hotel!




















The not so nice one. You see what? Why I said so.



















I left the Parliament House at 14:06

So it is slightly more than 4 hours in the Queue under hot Sun. It is hot until I no need to go to Gent for more than 4 hours despite drinking one bottle of water and one cup of ice cold water. LOL!





















In Investing, ACCOUNT SIZE really MATTERS! Why???


Someone asked me these questions:

1) You kept mentioning about

"In investing, ACCOUNT SIZE really MATTERS!"

What's consider a sizeable account size?

$500k and above?

2) Quote,

"It took me 23 years to ACCUMULATE SIZE-ABLE capital to have Real impact on net worth,
Another 16 years of real SOAKING myself in the world of financial news over day and nights."

That means you conceive the plan to get rich at age 20?
But why wait for 16 years later? Aren't there bulls and bears in between?

Excessive fears and greeds that hinder your plan towards earlier success.

Uncle8888's post edited version of  this reply:


Our account size? How much is enough?
Our final objective or goal in long term investing is to have enough cash flow from our financial assets to replace the loss of earned income from our human asset when we retire or choose to retire earlier than Singapore official retirement age at 62/65
How much is enough for this cash flow? $3K, $4K or $5K?
A more realistic or practical way to know how much is enough is to know our historical household expenses or  70% - 80% of last earned income as most financial planners will recommend.
Once we know how much is enough then we can estimate the our account size to sustain this level of cash flow across market cycles.
(1) How much portfolio RETURN can we reasonably expect if we are educated and active retail investors?
5% to 6% is achievable for most of us if we are active in tracking closely our market and companies that we have invested. We should be able to win more than our losses. Dividends will be of great help.

When we are still growing our portfolio we should try to focus more on growth dividend stocks.
(2) We must be aware of market cycles of bulls and bears. We want to ride the market cycles to grow our portfolio so we CANNOT afford stay 90-100% invested just for dividends or cash flow. 
 
We will need to slowly liquidate 30% to 40% of our portfolio as war chest and we can be waiting for years. We will need some growth in our portfolio to offset future inflationary impact to our cash flow. 
 
Our cash flow must also be able to grow higher with the injection of war chest during bear market. Our injection must win more than losses; otherwise we are doom.
(3) After leaving that amount as war chest, is the remaining size of our portfolio still be able to generate our desired level of cash flow at 5% to 6% return?
If the answer is no; then we will need to increase our account size as current account size may not be large enough to be sustainable across market cycles.

On question for
 
"It took me 23 years to ACCUMULATE SIZE-ABLE capital to have Real impact on net worth",
When I got very serious to invest in the stock market to get out of rat race after reading Rich Dad. Poor Dad. At that time, I strongly believe it is possible to achieve as I have already accumulated sizable account size from past 23 years of cash saving and CPF investment account to slowly deploy my investing capital till when Sep 11 WTC attack happened.  I still have nice war chest to deploy in the stock market.
 
If then my account size was not large enough, I could have already used up most of my investing capital before WTC event. I would not have enough investing capital or war chest to buy Keppel corp, SIA, SIA Eng, ST Eng, etc. 
 
May be I was lucky to meet such market opportunity; but most important is that I still have nice war chest to buy during that crisis. 
 
But, "unfortunately" or most likely it is my stupidity in 2007/early 2008 and caused me me to be too low in my war chest in early 2009. By Mar 2009, my balls has shrunk too much and became too fearful to take advantage of that market crisis. The fear of STI at 1,200 became too real!
 
This I shall not repeat it in the next bear.

On question for ..

That means you conceive the plan to get rich at age 20?
But why wait for 16 years later? Aren't there bulls and bears in between?

Excessive fears and greeds that hinder your plan towards earlier success.


When I personally witnessed my close relatives almost went bankrupt in the stock market during 1998 AFC; would anyone think that I would not be affected by this event?  
 
In fact, my wife forbid me in investing stocks. Stock market is highly dangerous place to make money? Right?
 
Recently; I have been probing those colleagues who are in their late 50s and early 60s why they are not active in the market. You can read those recent posts.


Tuesday, 24 March 2015

Uncle Chua's School of Long-term Investing??? (2)


Read? Uncle Chua's School of Long-term Investing???


Did late Uncle Chua, an illiterate taught us something that we don't often read it from books or heard it from our investing seminar Gurus?


In mid-1997, when Asian Financial crisis started sweeping across regional markets like hurricane destroying every single object in its path, Uncle Chua started calling his broker more often than usual to enquire about stocks prices. Contrary to most of my clients, who began panicking and dumping their shares to preserve what they had left, he did not sell a single share. Instead, he started buying blue chips only. He bought bit by bit as the STI broke one low after another.

Uncle Chua's portfolio consisted of nothing else but blue chips stocks only!I asked him about his philosophy of selecting good stocks. How did he pick those blue chips? Uncle Chua, explained: " I bought some of them as early as in the 60s. I was then in my 50s and retired.I reckoned that I neeeded to have some sort of passive income and so I made a simple comparison between bank fixed deposits and stock dividends. I decided that latter offered a better return, and so based on this very simple reasoning, I looked for companies which consistently paid good dividends is naturally a profitable company,management team of the companies that value shareholder interests and entering market with equanimity and grasping opportunities to buy good and resilient stocks at " super discounts" where only , the contrarians, dare to do so. 


Uncle Chua passed away at the age of 85 in the year 2000.This is true story, but rare, example of a successful investor whose winning strategy was simple, direct, clear-cut,straightforward and hassle free.


Is this the clue behind his success during AFC?

He bought bit by bit as the STI broke one low after another.

His large War Chest that enabled him to keep on buying during AFC?


In investing, Your Account Size Really Matters?





 

Monday, 23 March 2015

Discovering Johore by Bus and Walk - Mersing


 Read? On BLog Leave from 22 to 23 Mar 15



















A fishing town with many fishing boats.


















Uncle8888 chooses to stay in Fishing Bay Resort than Mersing Beach Resort so that he can easily walk to the Fishing Jetty in Air Papan to watch fishermen unloading their catch










































































One 16 Kg giant Sting Ray!

































Instead of taking aircon bus MAJU Larkin - Mersing Express back to JB, Uncle8888 did something different by travelling to Kota Tinggi.  He wanted to re-call his experience of old days bus travel in 60s/early 70s in Singapore i.e. no air-con bus with driver and bus Conductor. For this experience, he has to pay a bit more. :-( 

Sound silly?

Mersing - Kota Tinggi RM 9 and Kota Tinggi - Larkin RM 4.80. Total is RM 13.80

Direct MAJU Larkin - Mersing Express back to JB is only RM 12.50


It has been long, long time when wind is blowing directly into his face during a bus ride. LOL!




Saturday, 21 March 2015

How To Reduce Portfolio Volatility???


Permanent Portfolio?


Not really!

How?

Build up your cash flow and liquidity that is so large and portfolio volatility becomes immaterial.

No?



When Your Bank RM Called???


Many times in the past, when Uncle8888's Bank RM called him, he usually rejected the call for making an appointment to listen to their financial advice. After so many years of rejecting calls from RMs, somehow this time is different. May be he was in good mood to take an appointment on Saturday morning. Anyway, nowadays, he is so Eng!

OK! Uncle8888 knows what you are thinking?

You think her voice is so sweat. Right?


She offered 9 am appointment; but Uncle8888 said 10 am.

He went to Hougang Central POSB early at 9+ and observed her at Cubicle 13.

She is busy at works. Wah! Got many lobang.

Time for Uncle8888 to listen to his RM; but told her to cut short all introductory talks and goes straight into the subject matter. 

Uncle8888 told her that he is a savvy investor! No bluffing. LOL!

She introduced 5 + 5 Endowment product. 

Later back home, Uncle8888 tabulated XIRR for this product to compare it to CPF OA 2.5% rate.

We have to be mindful that Return mentioned for such product is always projected return so we need to evaluate such product to consdier 5% to 10% off the projected rate of return too.


XIRR for 10 years holding period (5+5)







For this product, you "invest" or save for 5 years and hold for another 5 years. Total 10 years of holding period.

It is about 1.3% to 2.67%

Suitable for whom?

Hmmm ...

For those who is thinking of ....


1) Your child University Fund in 10 years? Your child currently in Primary school and you don't want to mess up your child's Uni Fund in the volatile stock market.

2) Your Wedding Fund in 10 years, you got attached during your Uni days and getting married in your early 30s?

3) Building up your own Emergency Fund in 10 years time as you can't keep depending on your Bank of Papa or Bank of Mama for bailout.

4) ??


In the real investing world, some of our money will be rotting. Some will be earning much lower return than expected.


What do you think?






Our Desired Investing Outcome: The Pareto Principle (80/20)


Read? The Pareto Principle (80/20) Investing Strategy


Uncle8888 wrote this in ..

Sunday, 2 September 2012

Investors. Know at least Pareto's Principle


Pareto Principle ~ “20% of the effort generates 80% of the results.”

Market Timing vs. Time in Market???
Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis?
Short-term Trading vs.  Long-term Investing???

For long-term investors, we should be observing Pareto's Principle.

80% patiently waiting for Market Timing and then spend 80% Time in Market with 20% of our effort will generate 80% of the results.

And then we spend another 80% market timing for next cycle.

Read?  Laws Applicable To Investing

------------------------------------

Quoting the wisdom from this man, Rolf SueyMarch 20, 2015 at 9:48 AM

@Investment

this principle applies, but it is an outcome. It cannot be use as a strategy.

Since every investment before u press the buy button is ur top priority. If u have 5 stocks, u cannot say my priority is only 1 or 2 out of the rest.

I guess that maybe what B is trying to say is now he is only focusing on few stocks only with higher amt vested in each stock. And this is good enough for him getting good rtn.

but if 20/80 strategy applies... then out of ur 10 stocks, only 2 will give u good money. then how sure are u that it will comes from ur top holdings?


--------------------------------------

Uncle8888 fully agreed. It is an outcome and NOT a strategy.

BUT, this should be our desired investment outcome after XX years of investing in the stock market. We should be proving this principle RIGHT!


How?




Uncle88888 is quite sure that we are going to prove this principle WRONG by selling our winners sooner; but holding on our losers for the longest possible time before we are forced to sell.


Our investing strategy will likely to determine our investment performance outcome after X decades in the stock market. When our strategies are NOT rightly executed; they will NOT lead us to our desired outcome - The Pareto Principle ~ 20% of the effort generates 80% of the results.”

 




Friday, 20 March 2015

To Enjoy Life???


We need Time, Money, and will be much better together with your beloved ones. 

Simple enough?

So don't wait too long to do it. Right? 














ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN : The Moral Story Of Dividend Yield???







Dividend Yield is just part of the whole picture but easy to understand for most retail investors.


Cheem?










Emergency Fund. How Much Is Enough???


Depending on whom you ask?

If you happen to ask Uncle8888 who has been through "dark hours" of his time; you get unexpected answer from him.

It is in the magnitude of XX% of his net worth!

















Suitors circle Noble after commodity trader's $1.8 billion plunge

REUTERS

Singapore-listed Noble Group's 30 percent share-slump over the past month has thrust it onto the radar screens of Asian companies that want a bigger clout in global commodities trading, people familiar with the matter said.

Chinese and Japanese companies have held informal talks with investment banks about potentially making approaches to Hong Kong-headquartered Noble, a Singapore-based banker aware of the matter told Reuters, even though founder and top shareholder Richard Elman has been keen on the group staying independent.

Noble's market value has shrunk by $1.8 billion since little-known Iceberg Research accused it in mid-February of inflating asset values by billions of dollars through aggressive accounting. Noble has rejected the claim and linked Iceberg to an employee it fired in 2013.

Large companies that control the supply chain in raw materials such as Noble appeal to Chinese and Japanese firms that are looking to increase their pricing power and control costs in the commodities industry.

 "The stock slump is flushing out buyers," said the banker. "Noble has been very focused on staying independent but it's hard to see it staying that way now after the price fall and accounting issues," he said.

The banker declined to name the potential suitors as the talks were confidential. Other M&A bankers who have worked with Chinese state-owned companies mentioned China Minmetals, Brightoil Petroleum and Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings as potentially interested parties in acquiring Noble.

Bankers cautioned though that there were no active discussions between Noble and potential suitors and it was unclear whether any interested parties would actually proceed with a proposal.

The sources declined to be identified as the discussions are confidential. Brightoil declined to comment, while a Beijing-based spokesman for China Minmetals said he was not aware of any such plans. Temasek declined to comment on "speculation".

Read MoreWho's behind this company's share price drop?

Noble, in response to questions from Reuters, declined to comment on any likely suitors, adding its focus remained on "ensuring that we run our day to day business as efficiently as possible".

Scarcity value
 
Elman, 75, who began his career in a scrap yard in England at the age of 15, has transformed Noble into one of the world's biggest suppliers of commodities from coal and iron ore to coffee. The energy business accounts for the bulk of its revenue and profits.

"There is a scarcity value attached to Noble because there are hardly any listed commodity players," said the Singapore banker.

Last year, a Temasek-led consortium made a buyout offer for agricultural commodities trader Olam International , more than a year after short seller Muddy Waters raised questions about Olam's finances, sparking a stock slump.

Elman, who has recently raised his stake to nearly 21 percent in Noble, though is unlikely to be pressured into a sale, despite the slump in prices of several commodities, people familiar with his thinking said.

"Elman is known to hold a multi-decade view on commodity prices. He is not the one to sell at the bottom of the cycle," said one person who has previously advised Noble.

It was not immediately clear what Noble's other significant shareholders think about a sale. China Investment (CIC), Orbis Investment, Templeton and INVESCO cumulatively own more than 27 percent of the company, Reuters data shows. 

Bankers say CIC's 9.4 percent stake in Noble would make it easier for a Chinese state-owned company to propose an offer. 

CIC and Templeton didn't respond to a Reuters query, while INVESCO and Orbis declined to comment.

On BLog Leave from 22 to 23 Mar 15


Read? Discovering Johore by Bus and Walk!

Continue to explore our nearest neighbour, Johore.

Going up farther North.

Mersing! 

Uncle8888 has been to Mersing, Kelong Aceh for fishing; but this time he will be staying in Mersing, Fishing Bay Resort; but not fishing for a change.

Soon he will be able to meet his Goal to explore and discover all major towns and attractions in Johore.


 




Thursday, 19 March 2015

How Much Is Enough To Retire???


One practical approach is to track our household expenses and then estimate the total projected household expenses for the desired number of years in retirement.


Workable?


For example, Uncle8888's past years household expenses ...

 

Wednesday, 18 March 2015

Little Money vs. Saving More???


Many current old folks last time worried over their little money. 

Current many young folks are concerned over their saving and investment.

Now, whose life is better?

Stop complaining life is tough?


Chop Fingers liao!!!


Read? Six Zero Beggars???

Uncle8888 continues to probe for real people, real retail trader/investor around his workplace (a large herd of zebras)

He sees how to get those white hair zebras to open up and talk about their past trading/investing experience.

He is 59+ this year!

He has chopped his fingers few year after AFC as he could no longer take more nagging from his wife for his heavy losses in CPF OA and putting their retirement life at risk (prior to AFC, Govt never control the money in CPF OA for investing/trading/punting)
 
E.g. He lost heavily in heavy-weight stocks like NOL, ST Assembly, UOBKayHian, etc

He made some money in SIA, MCL, OCBC, etc

He is still holding on to his old socks; but gave up hope of seeing any recovery. 

Don't think. Can already!




Monday, 16 March 2015

Your War Chest For The Next Big Bear???



Deploying your big war chest for the next big Bear?


Hmm ....



 













Let Uncle8888 shares his thought based on real experience on the ground with some real retail investors in those cyber encounters ....


Depending on you how build up your big War Chest?

1. Bulk of it comes from your saving  

or 

2. Bulk of it came from fear of market crashing and liquidating your holding as War Chest. Cash is King!

Thinking ..

If it is 1, most likely you can deploy your War Chest 

But if it is 2, not sure how many can actually do it.


Read? What was I thinking and feeling in Mar 2009 Bear market low? (2)




Sunday, 15 March 2015

Gu Shen Feeling???























With STI still well above 3,000 and currently only O&G and commodity sectors getting badly hit, there will be investment bloggers who felt like Gu Shen with their large following!

 

Uncle8888 has been there before so he is not surprised at all!




"Some of my favourite bloggers were doing so well and they became my online superheroes in investing/trading. I visited their blog days and nights. Sometime, I might join in comments or chats to clarify; but most of the times, I was lurking behind reading, taking mental notes and trying to learn from them."



Read? Following My Superheroes!


Uncle8888 once also felt like Gu Shen in 2006 - 2007!



Read? Chasing the last $100K (last mile) and may fall hard!

Read? Uncle8888's Secret in making money from stock market!!! (2)


For those folks who are in their late 40s and above, be extra careful of following your Superheroes or Gu Shens too closely. Your Superheroes or Gu Shens can fall and pick up to continue.

But, can you?


Uncle8888 has learnt from Mr. Market himself. What he gave he can take back without early warning!

So be well prepared in advance to give back as little as possible by eliminating that feeling of Gu Shen as soon as possible.

Following Gu Shen is safe?
 
















 



Hotel Safe Deposit???


Even when Uncle8888 is looking for hotel for his vacation, he prefers his money to be in safe deposit and choose pay a little more for three stars with ...














Same as investing his money. Some money will be in "Safe Deposit".


Saturday, 14 March 2015

Future Inflationary Impact On Our Household Expenses???


How bad without housing inflation?



In Theory, Uncle8888 has projected his future household expenses @ 2.5% inflation rate, his chart will look like this:






















But, in Practice, his actual monthly household expenses for five persons since Oct 2001 is like this:























Blur!

Thinking out!


Without the housing inflation, we can adjust reasonably well to future inflationary impact by varying our consumption and expenditures.



What do you think?




Friday, 13 March 2015

Your Investment Portfolio is your Accelerator on the Road to Financial Independence! (3)


Read? Your Investment Portfolio is your Accelerator on the Road to Financial Independence! (2)


Uncle8888 confessed and come clean about it. 

What was not told by him?


It took him 23 years to accumulate size-able capital to have real impact on net worth. In investing, our account size really matters! 

Revised Road map. 

Now the true picture of lifelong investing of a retail investor in HDB heartland!

23 + 16 = 39 years! 



 
 



Paying Whole Life Insurance Premiums Way Into Our Retirement Life??? (2)


Read? Paying Whole Life Insurance Premiums Way Into Our Retirement Life???

 Read? My last life insurance policy maturing on Mar 2016 and no more for me!



Last annual life insurance premium paid!


No more dealing with life insurance agents for the remaining time of his time on Earth on the value of his human asset.
 

Ants are unlike Grasshoppers. We have Goals! We plan well ahead of our times. With carefully planning, foresight and some emotion check and balance, we can arrive there safety and on time at our own terms.

It is not good idea to go into retirement having persistent cash outflow of $XX,XXX to pay for annual life insurance premiums when our human asset value is much nearer to zero for protection. 

Value for money?





 




Thursday, 12 March 2015

Your Life In Short???


How many balls do you want to juggle in your life without dropping it?

Relationship, family, leisure, spending, insurance, saving, investing etc

Choose your own poison!









Transfer From CPF OA to CPF SA???


Uncle8888 only did once for that 1.5% difference!


But, don't ask him why? 

He won't tell you!


You have to think for yourself and find your own answer.

Who are you? Where you were? Where you want to be?


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