As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth and Gifts for your loved ones!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Monday, 25 July 2016

Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash! (3)


Read? Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash! (2)


Many retail investors are trapped by their by own emotions so doing the Maths matters!

The Real case for the Maths!
 
 
 
 
 
Assuming 50% dividends cut from FY 15 H2, FY 16 full year dividend payout for Kep Corp = $0.08 + $0.11 = $0.19.
 
 
HOLDING: Yield on investment cost for position held @ $9.67 is about 2% yield.
 
CUT LOSS INTO CASH WHILE WAITING: Less than 1% yield.
 
 
The Maths showed that cut losses into cash does little to help the investor's wallet; but it may heal frustrated or broken heart.
 
Cut loss to immediately switch to another Horse is a different matter!
 
 
See the difference!
 
Overheard someone after learning this strategy from Uncle8888; she has significantly recovered her losses after the recent sales of some switched Horses.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 






Sunday, 24 July 2016

Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash! (2)


Read? Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash!


True Story!

This debate happened many years ago at one cbox.

Why don't you cut losses?

What is the reason?

To recover back some capital to re-invest.

Hmmm ....

What if we have plenty of capital in the War Chest, we still need to cut losses to raise more cash to follow the Street's advice?

Dumb or Smart?

What you think?














Feel like eating then go and eat! (2)


Read? Feel like eating then go and eat!


Back to Hiap Joo's Banana cake shop again last Friday; this time he went early to grab those fast selling out and limited buns. You can get banana cakes most of time as they keep topping up stocks but not for buns. How come? Lower margins for buns.

Otah and Tau Sar buns are solid.

Bought some and ate them while they were still hot at the opposite coffeeshop's with your kopi, kopi and Teh. :-)


Quote : "Saw one nearby eating outlet, Triple K selling Pepper Root & Oxtail soup. Next time at JB Central will try this one."

We went to Triple K for Pepper Root & Oxtail soup but was told that the soup was still cooking and expected to be ready in one hour time for lunch. Sianz! Got to come again next time.










All About Market Timing and Time In The Market


After a few market cycles; Uncle8888 is rather convinced that for retail investors it is about Market Timing and Time in the Market for healing and rewarding.

The last GFC in 2008/2009, it was about financial crisis. This crisis is about O&G crisis.

Those have invested in O&G stocks in the recent years are in for rude shock and years of pains!

Uncle8888 has overheard the pain felt by some retail investors in Kep Corp. It was that bad and they have lost so much!

How about Uncle8888's feeling on his Kep Corp since it is his largest holding in his portfolio, longest holding period, highest yield and highest rounds of trading.


Read? How we made 468% returns on Kep Corp on dividends only

Read? Kep Corp : Bought @ $9.64 for Round 95

As retail investors; we are on our own and remember there is no Holy Grail method that will fit into us. Yes, we can search for ideas and references but still there is no Holy Gail method. Stop believing! You think Value Investing sure made money? You must quickly go and learn har.

When market crashes; value investing made simple. Get it?

Is this market timing and time in the market to get into Value Investing?

How different from value investing that are normally advocated in the printed and cyber world?

When market crashes; we get the right "Value" stocks and spend enough time to get the value from them. Not Value Investing? Then what?

When we get our market timing wrong on our positions and then we spend the rest of our time in the market feeling the pain, losses and frustration and then start or re-start to believe in Value Investing may be the way to go.

The Real Person. The Real Market Timing and Time in the Market. The Real Outcome. The Joy and The Pain in the Ass!

See for yourself closely and see whether you get it?














Saturday, 23 July 2016

One veteran sent me this note last night ... (2)



Thursday, 25 June 2015

Read? One veteran sent me this note last night ...


Even veterans can find it so difficult to time the Market after years of riding market cycles.

Time flies!

It was more than one year when he sent me that note on 25 Jun 2015. Since then, Market didn't crash or drop much.

Last check with him few weeks ago; he is still 100% out of equity market and collecting interests from short term notes.










Financial Independence = Passive Income > Household Expenses???



With Kep Corp 50% cut in dividends in 2016 H1 from $0.12 in 2015 to $0.08; he is expecting similar cut in 2016 H2. Uncle88888 is also expecting weaker dividends from SCI.

He has revised his number for 2016 and 2017 and more homework is expected in 1st two years of his retirement to close the gap.







$1.2M Cash At 63 Still Not Sure Enough To Retire???


The Real Person with conversation with real person on his retirement adequacy.

He is 63. Currently, he is re-employed by his company on yearly basis and he is still thinking of retiring sooner; but he doesn't trust Mr. Stock Market to invest for income as retirement cash flow. So how?

He is thinking hard and harder!

He bought landed property in the early days and down graded two years ago to fully paid condo. He made net profit of $1.2M cash to prepare for his retirement.

We often read that investing for income is not difficult; but on case by case basis; the real person with lots of money and the FEAR of losing large sum of money is also real has made investing so much harder. Right?







Thursday, 21 July 2016

How we made 468% returns on Kep Corp on dividends only


The Real Person!

We use this method to invest on Kep Corp. In fact, this method was successfully used by Jessie Livermore.

In the famous book entitled Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Jessie Livermore said: “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit.

And their experience invariably matched mine -- that is, they made no real money out of it.

I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.



It is more commonly known as Timing the Market and Time in Market method.

The Real Person. The Real Method. The Real Outcome.








US stocks end higher with 7 straight record closes for the Dow


U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday, with the Dow ending at a record high for the seventh day in a row as better-than-expected earnings boosted optimism on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones industrial average extended gains for nine consecutive days for the first time since 2013, with Microsoft contributing most to the upside.
 
The S&P 500 closed at a new record level, led by technology which had its best day in 16 years.

The Nasdaq composite had its highest close of the year, helped by a 2 percent gain in biotech.






Wednesday, 20 July 2016

What Recent Retirees Wish They Had (or Had Not) Done


Read? What Recent Retirees Wish They Had (or Had Not) Done

Although many retirees (66%) reported that they were living the lifestyle that they wanted in retirement, a little more than half (57%) looked back on the years before retirement and wish they had done more to prepare, according to a study by Fidelity Investments.

There’s a lesson here for people who have not yet retired but are thinking about it.

“Workers approaching retirement often look to their peers who have already gone through the process for valuable lessons learned,” said Steve Deschenes, executive vice President of Fidelity Institutional Retirement Services Company, in a news release.

“Those living in retirement now can provide valuable insight to people getting ready to make that transition, from knowledge of the basic fundamentals such as the key elements of a successful income plan, to identifying resources that can help with critical decisions that need to be made.”
“This can have a dramatic impact on the quality of life today’s pre-retirees will experience when they retire.”


Uncle8888 is an Ant who follows China's Ancient Wise Man's words ...

"The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought."

Sun Tzu said:
Those who understand these fundamentals will win.
Those who don't will be defeated.
 
 
 
Preparing for retirement is like preparing for a long battle so he has made many calculations again and over again assuming different scenarios.
 
So far, after many years of reading books and articles on retirement planning; he has found that this model has very good chance of meeting his retirement goals and doesn't depend too much on the Mood of Mr. Market. He has transformed the Myth Of Passive Income into Reality with his Three Taps Solution.
 
 
The execution of this Plan will kick off on 1 Oct 2016!
 
 
 

 
 
 
 

US: Dow edges to new record

[NEW YORK] The Dow finished at another record on Tuesday, but disappointing earnings from Netflix weighed on the tech-rich Nasdaq.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.1 per cent to 18,559.01, to set a record for the sixth straight day.

The broad-based S&P 500 lost 0.1 per cent at 2,163.78, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.4 per cent to 5,036.37.


Tuesday, 19 July 2016

Leave A Few Eggs In One Basket???


You often read or read these advices from investment Gurus:

Don't Put all your eggs into one basket

or

Don’t Put all your eggs into one basket

How about something new to digest?


How about Leave A Few Eggs In One Basket?


Read? Uncle8888, how do you find multi-bagger stock? (Re-visit)

Updated with GLP; the new number is 56!


How do we put our eggs in the basket?


Put all eggs or Don't Pull all eggs in one basket?

How did Uncle8888 put all his eggs into one basket?


He went out to find as many eggs as he could find. As of now, he has found 56 eggs!

He threw away most of his eggs and leave a few eggs in one basket and watch it closely.

The Moral Of Story ...

Start with Diversification and then end with Concentration.

Too Chim?


















Put all your eggs into one basket???


An early morning smile after reading this by one of those investment gurus teaching retail investors in blogosphere.


How many retail investors think that they have the investing capital to accumulate up to 35 stocks in their portfolio and STILL think they are not diversified?

Don’t Put all your eggs into one basket .......

Quote : "Teng, one of Singapore’s most successful boutique fund managers, is famous for “putting all his eggs into one basket”.

During his tenure at Target Asset Management, he only invested in 35 stocks."


Teaching method and executing method are two different skills - CW8888





US stocks close at record highs, Dow hits 7th straight day of gains

U.S. stocks closed at all-time highs Monday as Bank of America's quarterly results helped investor confidence going into earnings season.
The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 15 points higher, with Goldman Sachs and Home Depot contributing the most gains. The blue-chips index extended its winning streak to seven days, with a fifth straight day of record closes.
 
The S&P 500 also ended up about a quarter of a percent at a record high, led by information technology and consumer discretionary sectors.


Monday, 18 July 2016

DBS Bulls Are Coming???



GLP - Sold @ $1.915 at ROC 18.2%



Read? GLP : Bought @ $1.605 for Round 1



Round 1: ROC 18.2%, 59 day, B $1.605 S $1.915

Sunday, 17 July 2016

Most Of Us Will Have A Few Financial Bombs Ahead Of Us And We ourselves ASK for them


We are among those many brave ones who have travelled the normal path . We have chosen to be bombed a few times over our life. 

Some of us might be bombed just one or two times at most while the rest of us are bombed until Chow Ta; but we just restart our finance all over again!

No regret! Life is not just about having MORE and MORE money!

At the end of our bombing journey; many of us still manage to be quite OK financially.

Sometime, Uncle8888 is wondering how he did it?

HURRAY!

Well done. Folks!

Give yourself a HIGH FIVE if you have completed your bombing Journey!

We are the Role Models for our future generations!




Investment Marathon Race: His Previous 10 Years Goals vs Current 10 Years Goals



From the two charts, it is quite obvious after the last GFC in 2008/2009; Uncle8888's Lam Par has somehow shrunk!

Can carry on like this and still meet 2021 Goal Target?
 
First 5 years comparison: Brave vs. Timid
 
Cham liao!
 
How?






Looking back; what unlikely to happen again?

The falling back of achieved Goals and returning part of realized gains back to Mr. Bear.

How come?

No more Contra trading so no more Forced losses.

No more Realized (or Cut) losses for lousy stocks to switch horses as he has already taken back all his investing capital and more for his War Chest.

Read? Cut Losses And Hide Into Cash? Think It Is Difficult To Recover Our Realized Losses With Cash!



 
Read? The Four Phases Of Saving And Investing For Retirement

Now, in PRESERVE phase, his portfolio has to be more focus on risk control to avoid large losses by not taking higher betting.


Saturday, 16 July 2016

Add One New Member to Group ToTo


He didn't know about Group ToTo until he had lunch with Uncle8888's ToTo Gang last Wed and decided to be part of the Gang.

Created a new Whatapps group for this Focus Group. :-)

Wah! Group ToTo is not commonly know to ToTo punters or many punters don't wish to share. Which is which?

Uncle8888 is damn serious when ToTo Jackpot prize hits $4m and above.

Group ToTo in action!




His Lifetime Of Earned Income After Tax (Aug 1977 to 15 Sep 2016) vs Net Investment Gains Since Jan 2000


Read? Count Down To Retire@60

With Uncle8888's fixed monthly salary; it is simple to compute his lifetime of earned income after tax from Aug 1977 to 15 Sep 2016; it is over 38 years of using his Human Asset to generate cash flow comparing to over 16 years of using his Financial Assets to build up another source of wealth and cash flow for the rest of his life.


One consolation prize after spending more than 16 years in SGX, our local stock market; he realized and quite confident on his current investing strategy and war chest; he should be able to survive for the next 5 to 10 years in the stock market unless he becomes dementia before 65 to 70.


 
 
 
 
Wealth Accumulation Rate P.A. From
Human Asset vs. Financial Assets:
 
Over 38 years: 68% as of 15 Sep 2016
 
Over 16 years: 32% as of 15 Jul 2016
 
 




 
The most important thing that he realized that it is better to avoid large losses than trying to win big by taking higher bet. Recovering from large losses is painful and may take a very long time just to breakeven.
 
 




Dow ends big week of gains at fresh record

Strong US retail sales lifted the Dow to a fourth straight record Friday as global equity markets finished a big week of gains on a muted note.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average record came after a robust June US retail sales report gave further evidence of momentum in the world's biggest economy.

US stocks otherwise showed signs of fatigue, with the S&P 500 ending modestly lower, snapping a streak of four straight records.


Friday, 15 July 2016

DBS : One More Attempt By The Bulls


The Four Phases Of Saving And Investing For Retirement


Read? The Four Phases Of Saving And Investing For Retirement


Passive Income is NOT a Myth!


Read? Passive Income is a Myth


Do anyone think that Uncle8888 is a crazy man who is going survive for his next 1 to 2 decades based on a Myth?

It is up to us to build up our own model of Sustainable Retirement Income For Life to make it as passive as possible and doesn't turn this activity into another form of part-time job working on a full time work-week.

CW8888's Three Taps Solution



 
 

 









Hawker galore on Michelin's Bib list


Banks lead as Dow, S&P 500 push to fresh records

US stocks pushed to new records Thursday, lifted by JPMorgan Chase's strong earnings and hopes for more stimulus from central banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7 percent at 18,506.41, its third straight all-time high.

The broad-market S&P 500 extended its record streak to a fourth day, advancing 0.5 percent to 2,163.75. The tech-rich Nasdaq rose 0.6 percent to 5,034.06.

Equity markets shrugged off the Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates and stimulus unchanged in its first meeting after Britain voted to leave the European Union. The bank though signalled it could come at its August meeting.





Thursday, 14 July 2016

Losing Is Part Of The Game. Don't Give Up Yet! (2)


Read? Losing Is Part Of The Game. Don't Give Up Yet!

Read? Book: The Education of Value Investor






Singaporeans have to 'save longer for retirement'

 
 
 
Singaporean: 21% vs. Global 6%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Generally savvy savers but lack of knowledge in investment options
 
 
 
 

Dow notches 4-day winning streak, closes at record high

U.S. stocks closed near the flatline Wednesday but managed to eke further into record territory.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed about 24 points higher, at an all-time high, and notching a four-day winning streak.

The S&P 500 set all-time intraday highs, along with the Dow shortly after the open, and closed barely above the flatline. The Nasdaq composite lagged, closing about 17 points lower.

Wednesday, 13 July 2016

Trading for "passive income" using leverage vs Long-term investing for passive income using our own capital. (Time to Refresh it)


Friday, 31 January 2014

Read? Trading for "passive income" using leverage vs Long-term investing for passive income using our own capital.


When you have spend enough time reading, reading and reading many finance and investment blog postings over the years; but forget about those blog posts that have commercial interests in selling you courses.
 
Do you realise that Mr Market will always have his way to show us the right way to build our wealth from the stock market is through investing in companies growing their business revenues, cash flow and profits either through expanding, enhancing or innovating their products and services offering to their global consumers and producers?
 
 

Losing Is Part Of The Game. Don't Give Up Yet!



Yesterday, Uncle8888 was talking to this 62+ old years colleague who has been re-employed this year for another year on one-year contract basis.

He has given up on stock market after losing so much money in the past bear markets with a few ZERO baggers and expecting one more coming soon, EZRA.

He asked me about EZRA as he got large position in it. When we looked at the chart; it is quite obvious!


Most of us will lose money in the stock market. That is the only truth! Losing is part of the Game. Don't Give Up Yet!

What we read and hear in newspaper ads and in the cyber world are just advertisement. Not any different like slimming and six-pack ads in one easy way.

The truth, "Gurus" who are making money from investment courses don't lose money. Teaching method and executing method are two different skills.

Uncle8888 lost money; but he never has any doubt that he will give up on stocks and even stick to just stocks listed in SGX.

No global equities diversification.

No Gold.

No Silver.

No investment properties.

Just local stocks and Sing dollars.

He is still surviving. Let see for how long he can stay in this mode.

Simple may not be equal to ineffective.

Uncle8888 knew it in his heart as he tracks every details; count and measure everything that can be effectively pointed to his performance and strategy for revision and improvement. 

No illusion!












Dow Jones industrial average closed at a new all-time high, up 120.74 points, or 0.66 percent, at 18,347.67

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a new all-time high, up 120.74 points, or 0.66 percent, at 18,347.67. The S&P 500, which closed at a new high on Monday, rose 14.98 points, or 0.7 percent, to 2,152.14. The Nasdaq composite added 34.18 points, or 0.69 percent, to 5,022.82. 


Tuesday, 12 July 2016

Monday, 11 July 2016

Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? (5) - Refreshing It!



Read? Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? (5)


"When I told some colleagues that I dumped all available CPF money to pay up and took up only 5-year housing loan. I believe some of them might think that I was stupid not to take advantage of the cheapest loan available." - Createwealth8888

I know that the housing loan is the cheapest loan in town and I also heard many times from Mr Property Guru and Mr Banker that housing loan is GOOD DEBT if you are a savvy investor. Really ah?



The Past is not the Present. The Present is not the Future.

When will we know that we have made the right decision and bear the consequences and opportunities from this decision?

The next Crisis is of the equivalent magnitude of GFC or AFC will teach us great lesson for the rest of our time in the market, economy and our jobs.

Younger ones should ask your parents what are in their mind during AFC and GFC? What have they regretted not doing it?






Sunday, 10 July 2016

Fitting And Recycle Into Teenagers' Bermuda Pants


This is definitely frugality!

This morning; Auntie8888 was sorting out some children old clothing's for collection by  one Welfare Home.

Auntie8888: Think you can fit into these pants now. Go and try out!

Wah! Uncle8888's waist really shrunk into his youth again!

No Italy!

He has the waist size of his children when they were teenagers. :-)






Conversation on retirement to an Entrepreneur (SME IT Vendor)



CW8888: I have already submitted Notice of Retirement. Last working day is 15 Sep 2016. The day after my 60th birthday.

Entrepreneur: Congratulations!  You will embark on the wonderful and peaceful golden years. I wish I could retire now. I just had my 61 birthday. I am dreaming of the golden years to come.

CW8888: Our GCTO, 67 is still working. :-)

Entrepreneur: That is different.  He is high up and surrounded by bright young and energetic and capable fellow managers.  His mind is the gold mine. But the world is changing so fast it is hard to catch-up all the time.
 

Something to think about on retirement, ACHIEVEMENT and IDENTITY relating to our jobs and role in an organization.

Now, who are those talking about retirement and WILL retire?

Check around?







It is RELATIVE. It Is All About Living Below Our Earned Income!!! How Difficult Can It Be?



Financial and retirement planning begins when we are living below our earned income.

How difficult can it be?
 

It is RELATIVE!

Consumerism is RELATIVE too!

Whether Single, DINK, DIWK, or SIWK.


With another 2.5 months of earned income and that will end Uncle8888's history of earned income (including employer and employee CPF contribution) in 15 Sep 2016.

A lifetime of earned income as salaried employee and soon it will be become his History!


Earned Income after Tax, Investment Portfolio Income (Dividends & net trading P/L) and household expenses






Saturday, 9 July 2016

Old But Not Weak!


Have enough wealth but weak body is not the right way to go.

Old but not Weak is the better option to choose.

No free lunch. We will reap what we sow!

Uncle8888 has changed his night jogging for two weeks and looked like it is sustainable.

Instead of jogging to Lor Halus Bridge and back to Punggol Park.

 
 
 
 
Now, he changed his nightly routine to Jog one round Punggol Park and follows by Pull Ups. After each round; his pull up will be down from 3 to 2.X
 
Slowly; over time he will add on Sit Up next and then add on others.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 





Real Long Term Investing For This Life???

 
 
 
Looking at Temasek's Year-to-Year Income.
 
There is something to learn from it.
 
It is NOT just about dividends as portfolio income.
 
As real long-term retail investors looking for growth and not just income; this is a model to consider as income generation for life.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CW8888: This model is workable. Divestment as part of income streams.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Friday, 8 July 2016

Consumerism is NOT the Problem. Over and Under Consume is the Issue!!!


Over consume than our earning; it is not sustainable over long run and then we will not have enough to retire.

Under consume?

"When we are in heaven, our money will still be in the bank."

"We don't seem to have enough money to spend; but, when we are gone; there's still lots of money not spent.

 
Our money can never disappear when we are gone; someone else will get their hands on our own money and happily spend it!



Book: The Education of Value Investor


Guy Spier is a Zurich-based investor and author of a book on investing entitled The Education of a Value Investor.[1] He is well known for bidding US$650,100 with Mohnish Pabrai for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett in June 2007.[2] In 2009, he was featured in "the Checklist Manifesto", by Atul Gawande regarding his use of checklists as part of his investment process.[3]

Spier manages the Aquamarine Fund, an investment partnership inspired by, and styled after Warren Buffett's 1950s investment partnerships. He is also an occasional financial commentator in the media.[


 
 
After reading this book, Uncle8888 is more convinced that Losing is part of the Game.
 
How much can you stomach your paper losses in this Game?
 
These two guys paid USD650K to learn investment lessons directly from Warren Buffet.
 
They are investment Masters too!
 
What happened in 2008/2009 to these two investment Masters?
 
 
 
Guy: Down - 46.7%
 
Monash: Down -5X%???
 (since his paper loss was worse than Guy)
 
CW8888: Down -53%
 
Losing is part of the Game.
Even for investment Masters too.
 
Right?
 
The Take Away: The Key Test is our investment portfolio able to recover to pre-crisis level and beyond then our portfolio management, investing strategy and stocks pick should be okay.
 
 
 
 
 
If a Stock tumbles after you buy it; don't sell it for two years.
 
CW8888: How many retail investors can stomach it?
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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