CW8888: How much is enough to retire comfortably in Singapore for a couple without housing loans and children all independence? When you NO need to save for your retirement anymore and also debt free; $4,000 to $6,000 is enough??? Among households headed by a Singapore citizen or permanent resident which had at least one working person, the median monthly income last year grew by 3 per cent in nominal terms to S$9,293, up from $9,023 in 2017.
Especially true to those investing for income or yield as they MAY not include paper losses and/or paper gains disappearing from the table. When we calculate to precision of two decimal points and including paper gains disappearing from the table; then investing is not easy. It is damn bloody tough to grab those extra % gains on the table to realize it. Bang head! Alamak!
Almost no one really understands the basics of how the stock market works, and they suffer under the illusion that EVERY stock share is worth the same price as the last share that was traded. (If you’re confused why this isn’t the case, you’ve been lied to… watch the animation below to learn the truth that Wall Street doesn’t want you to ever realize.) Thus, in a rising stock market bubble, people who hold shares that were purchased at far lower prices suffer under the illusion that all those shares are “worth” the current high price. As my animation video reveals below, that idea is nothing but illusion. In truth, share prices are only transmuted into real wealth when they are SOLD. Yet it is impossible for all the holders of the shares to all sell at the current price for the simple reason that selling shares causes their price to fall. Thus, the mathematical reality is that all the outstanding shares of any given public company are really only worth a fraction of the current market price. This is easily demonstrated in any given market correction or crash where share prices plummet. Ignorant investors falsely believe their “wealth” is being “destroyed” when, in reality, that wealth never existed in the first place. CW8888: Taming that Illusion and getting nearer to real and lesser illusion of wealth or net worth in the Land of Distribution or going down Mountain. We can't eat on Illusion of wealth in the stock market!
Normalizing these parameters to common denominator of 100% for STI, war chest, cash-flow, stock value and portfolio value (including cash not invested). This can help him to visualize these parameters relatively. No free lunch. It is about trade off and opportunities. 1) War chest at inception of investment portfolio on Jan 2000 as 100% 2) Stock value at Oct 2007 as 100% 3) Portfolio value at Oct 2017 as 100% 4) Cash-flow in 2007 as 100% 5) STI at Oct 2007 as 100% Inception --> 2007 Bull High --> 2009 Bear Low --> 2018 New Portfolio Value High --> Feb 2019 STI : 67% --> 100% --> 38% --> 93% --> 83% War Chest : 100% --> 12% --> 3% --> 142% --> 142% Portfolio Value : 41% --> 100% --> 47% --> 112% --> 103% Stock Value : 0% --> 100% --> 48% --> 49% --> 38% Cash-flow : 0% --> 100% --> -116% --> 21% --> 11%
Let see how Uncle8888 is doing over the next market cycle.
How long-term market cycles retail investors should be measuring their investing performance across many market cycles??? Ownself beats ownself? Last Bull at Oct 2007 vs Historical Peak and Current
Last Bear at Mar 2009 vs Next Bear (2019/2X) and Current How much is the opportunity cost in this market timing game? Climbing up wealth Mountain during wealth accumulation has to be different from going down wealth Mountain during wealth sustainability or decummulation. Let see!
Uncle8888 has been following investment forums, chat zones and blogs for decades and he realized that seldom people bother to ask those who have inspired them on seond Pot of Gold this question : "How did you get your first Pot of Gold to be so sexy with your second Pot of Gold?" When you realized how they get their first Pot of Gold; you may shiver at the amount of time, effort, energies and intensity of sacrifices they have made over the years; you may have second thought. They can! I can??? First Pot of Gold really matters! How do you intend to get yours? Team earn more or team save more? Have you seriously think about it before dreaming of second Pot of Gold?
Read? Clearing debts early for a "Peace of Mind" is Overrated - Here's why??? Uncle8888 has seen through major recessions and retrenchment in his ex company and had seen his ex-colleague crying in front of him eyes when he lost his job. Meederka generation could have easily being debt free; but most love the idea of second bite or more of the cherries. Huge difference between "Having debts" and "Having debts on negative net worth" Having debts doesn't means negative net worth. Know the difference! Having debts on negative net worth is potentially troubled mind when you are retrenched in your late 40s or 50s. OMG! I am retrenched!
Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (5) Singapore Man of Leisure 3 February 2019 at 10:29:00 GMT+8 CW, I'll take that as a sign of capitulation that you no longer confident of securing new 10 baggers in the future ;) Those days of glory are probably behind you... Fully understand. Walking down the mountain... CW8888 : Time passed fast! 19 years (Jan 2000 to 3 Feb 2019) as Panda or Koala kind of investor only investing and speculating in local SGX and after so many years in the market he never acquire the wisdom of becoming global investor for diversification and safety. Luckily; he didn't become extinct or starve to death after 19 years of fighting Mr Market with only one arm. He was badly wounded a few times; but he didn't died from infections from bad wound. Good doses of Panadols can help to ease pains; and after decades he became immune. LOL!
Lessons learned. So what did I learn from my plight? First, that I took a big risk when I created a portfolio that was wildly different from Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. That was especially problematic in 2014, when hardly anyone beat the index. Magnifying the problem was my decision to put too much money into my favorite ideas. I totally bought into the notion that it was foolish to invest in my 60th-best idea. What I overlooked was how bad things could get if I was wrong about my second-best, third-best and fifth-best ideas at the same time. So now I plan to invest a chunk of the family portfolio in index funds—oh, the horror!—and put most of the rest into companies that should do at least okay no matter how the world changes. In other words, I’m buying the kinds of companies owned by Warren Buffett, who has long recommended owning stocks you’d be happy to hold even if the markets were closed for five years. But, as wise as that advice is, I generally ignored it because it would keep me out of stocks that could double in two years. No longer. My wife is elated that I’m quitting, which should clue you in to the impact she thought lagging the market was having on my life. I’m looking forward to not following the market every day and finishing my second novel. Investing doesn’t have to make you rich, but it shouldn’t make you miserable. Read? Portfolio Management Concentrate (Verb) or Concentrate (Noun)
Read? National Steps Challenge Season 4 One ex-colleague was suspicious on the accuracy of the Tracker as he didn't think that by random walking across the island could reach more than 100 Km per week and once he reached 40 Km in a day. Ex-colleague said that is a Marathon Race! Chun bo??? Hor?
Trust but verify - SMOL
So this morning, Uncle8888 went to Punggol Park to verify!
The Tracker is quite accurate in reporting the 1 Km distance!
TOKYO (BLOOMBERG) - The world's biggest pension fund posted a record loss after a global equity rout last quarter pummeled an asset class that made up about half of its investments.
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund lost 9.1 per cent, or 14.8 trillion yen (S$183.34 billion), in the three months ended Dec 31, it said in Tokyo on Friday (Feb 1). The decline in value was the steepest based on comparable data back to April 2008. Domestic stocks were the fund's worst performing investment, followed by foreign equities.
While stocks helped the GPIF generate returns for the previous two fiscal years, December's global rout underscored the risks facing the fund since it revamped strategy in 2014 to accumulate stocks and pare domestic bonds.
The GPIF may have little choice but to invest in equities as fixed-income yields, especially those of Japanese government debt, are too low, said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co in Tokyo.
"It makes a sense for the GPIF to hold some risk assets in this environment because yields are low globally and bond investments don't give good returns," Fujiwara said. "Yet from a pensioner's point of view, it takes too much risk on its investments."
More than US$10 trillion in equity value was wiped out from the global markets last quarter as an ongoing trade spat between the US and China raised concern over a slowdown in growth.
The Topix index plunged 18 per cent in the October-December period, the biggest quarterly decline since 2008, while the S&P 500 Index dropped 14 per cent, the most since 2011. Japan's currency strengthened 3.7 per cent against the dollar in the quarter.
2018 Median Gross Monthly Income From Work (Including Employer CPF Contributions) of Full-Time Employed Residents is $4,437
2018 median monthly net take home pay before tax is about $3K to 3.9K depending on age group i.. below 55, above 55 to 60, above 60 to 65 and above 65. How much is enough from your net worth's cash flow for FIRE, FIRe, semi, quasi or fully retire @ 62 in Singapore? Assuming residential home has been fully paid.
adjective a word naming an attribute of a noun, such as sweet, red, or technical. noun
a word (other than a pronoun) used to identify any of a class of people, places, or things ( common noun ), or to name a particular one of these ( proper noun ). Singapore Man of Leisure28 January 2019 at 19:17 temperament, That's why I don't let myself get caught with "labelling". Calling oneself a "Christian" - that's a noun. But to be "Christ-like" in your actions... that's an adjective. Nouns are easy (anyone and everyone can call themselves whatever they like); adjectives are much harder to live up to :( CW8888 Hmm ... I am multi-bagger stocks investor I am more than 150% profitable investor. Adjective investor? I am long-term investor! Also adjective???
Our holding power in term of money will ease our heartache while receiving doses of Panadols during bad times and smiling during good times and giving us the right to brag during CNY gathering among friends and relatives - "I told you to invest! You no listen" 2) Our yield on investment cost e.g. high single digit or double digits dividend yield on cost During good times in our FIRE, FIRe or retirement phase; we can't live off those paper gains in our investment portfolio; but during bad times; we will still be receiving dividends but just smaller! What is our true holding power across volatile market cycles? Money or yield?
Keppel Corp declared final dividend of 15 cts and taking full year dividend FY 18 to 30 cts i.e 10+5+15 = 30
Since he has first invested in Kep Corp in 18 Sep 2001; every year since 2001 he is happy with the dividend yield or so called "passive" income. That year in 2001 he has invested is still the lowest dividend yield over the past 17 years of holding this stock! 17 years is a long time that is long-term investing! Read? Just a few multi-baggers may be enough for your kid's university fund - Updated
In 2017 H1 ..... he was wondering what would happen in 2017 H2 and 2018?
Read? Stock-Pickers Don’t Know How to Sell Uncle8888's own experience on short-term trading long-term investing is mixed feeling. Buy, Hold or Sell? There is no right Method in the market; but your net profit after spending decades in the stock market must be RIGHT in your bank account! Theory is just theory. So don't crack your head so hard to see which theory is the best. Counting your winning $ is real thing and that is the best outcome! Holding for decades!
Read? Compound Interest is not the same as Compound Returns (3) Every time when Uncle8888 read something similar like this in the cyber world .. he smiles! "However, many forget the power of compounding when it comes to investing, helping you achieve financial freedom at an earlier age. Enjoy your retirement, start investing today!" Some folks need to learn from Crash Got Sound that compounding investment return is NEVER the same as compounding interest as savers! Albert Einstein reportedly said it. “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.”
Uncle8888 has small chats with more than dozen of senior uncles and aunties in their late 60s and early 70s working freelance about 2 to 3 hrs per work day and 2 to 4 work days per week for their daily meals and some pocket money. Their freelance jobs are not back breaking tasks so it is not an issue for seniors. How much food can we eat?
LOL! Next time, you hear any "Gurus" boasting to you about their Method and Return! So huat arh! Put more skin in the Game. Show us how much skin in the Game. More than 50% of your net worth in the Game?
You won't know this through investment forums and FB investing groups e.g. BIGS World Those big losers won't go to such forums or FB investing to share their huge losses and lost so much until they have chopped fingers. After that they become faithfully savers. Losing to future years of inflation is far less painful! Read? Chop fingers Talk to your mederka relatives this CNY and find out more and share!
Read? How Rich Was Warren Buffett at Your Age? Read? Warren Buffet Has Huge War Chest CW8888: Warren Buffet was in the Earn More camp! What did you really learn from Warren Buffet? Next time; any "Gurus" who are smoking you on Warren Buffet's investing techniques. Show them this blog post. LOL! Even in our local investment blogopshere; those bloggers who showed you big fat dividends are or were from earn more camp.
After graduating college, Buffett tried repeatedly to land a job with mentor Benjamin Graham — even offering to work for free — but had to return to Omaha to work for his father as a stock broker after Graham’s repeated rejections. At age 21, his net worth was just $20,000. However, after he kept sending investment ideas to Graham, the legendary investor relented and hired Buffett a couple of years later for an annual salary of $12,000 — almost three times the annual median income for the average family in 1954. When Graham retired just two years later, Buffett took what he had learned and started applying it to an investment partnership he formed with friends and relatives. By the time Buffett reached 26, his net worth was between $140,000 and $174,000.
The big idea here is to spend what has been "earned" and not to spend future money that is not "earned"!
Cash in this bank account has been "earned" and will be rotting to fund household expenses for 2019/2020
With one dedicated bank account for household expenses; whenever he looked at the account balance; he won't feel rich enough to overspend or feel that poor to under spend. He will naturally adjust and adapt to the remaining account balance to ensure that he doesn't spend until the account drop below the minimum sum and get charged by the bank. So far; it works naturally well for him for decades!
Read? How To Make Long Term Investing Works For You??? Fear of losing back REAL money on the table has far exceeded the slow yearly yield. We want fast money and not slow one. How often we have this struggle inside us and how to over ride this fear?
To have "skin in the game" is to have incurred risk (monetary or otherwise) by being involved in achieving a goal. In the phrase, "skin" is a synecdoche for the person involved, and "game" is the metaphor for actions on the field of play under discussion. How much skin you have in the Game? When you failed; what is the degree of skin burn you will suffer? It is 3rd degree or more skin burn when you failed that is skin in the Game!
Sometime Uncle8888 will ask questions and the replies from some investment bloggers or retail investors: " I am lazy .. blah blah" Of course; they can afford to be lazy depending how much skin in the Game. When you know that you are going to suffer 3rd degree skin burn or more; you can still afford to be lazy? LOL!
Since the creation of CPF RA with FRS of $131K upon reaching 55 on Sep 2011; Uncle8888 has received total of $51K of interests in his CPF RA over past 7 yrs. CPF RA Interest Growth Rate 1. $30K @ 6% 2. Next $30K @ 5% 3. Balance of RA @ 4%
It is possible to succeed as an investor or trader, but I believe it is much better to be an investor. This has always been a contentious point – investing vs trading. Investing is usually defined as having a long-term horizon while using fundamental analysis as a core investing approach. Trading on the other hand often refers to short-term, higher frequency of entries and exits from the markets. Traders rely mainly on technical analysis or chart reading to make their decisions. Having been on both sides of the spectrum, I can tell you that my experience and results showed that it is easier to be an investor than a trader. I have achieved far better results as an investor. I have also observed more successful investors than traders in my past decade of interaction with market participants. Successful investors probably outnumbered the successful traders 5:1. Maybe I have a biased sample but it doesn’t stop you from observing your circle and verifying if this is accurate. CW8888: Uncle8888's experience in short-term trading and long-term investing since Jan 2000 i.e. over 19 years is ... As long-term retail investors; we just need to be lucky and be right at right time with the right position to enjoy long term success with yearly harvest for next decades! Uncle8888 has taken back 100% of his own capital out of the stock market to protect himself from drastic drawdown in the next Bear and he still have yearly cash flow from the stock market without having to do anything more to receive it. He is expecting to receive about 7.5% yield on own capital in 2019.
Relax and still have money coming in How to be lucky?
After clarifying with WIS back-end staff' on his eligibility for 2018 WIS; CPF counter staff finally accepted Uncle8888's appeal for 2018 WIS as self-employed low income worker. WIS payout as follows: $200 per month kopi money in 2018! So Uncle8888 officially contributed +1 to that number of low income workers in Singapore.
Last updated : 15 Sep 2018
I am 62 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and finally retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee on 1 Oct 2016.
Single household income since 1995 with three children. Eldest son and daughter are now working and youngest son still in his 3nd year Uni in SUTD.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I am now executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038.
Disclaimer: Stock trading involves significant risks. Create Wealth trader is not a licensed Investment Adviser and will not be responsible for any losses which you incurred. You are advised to always do your own homework before making any trading decision.