Avoid speculating; own blue chips: What did he buy? He owned
95 stocks, with many blue chips among them: Procter & Gamble,
JPMorgan Chase, General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Dow Chemical.
He also owned consumer names such as J.M. Smucker and CVS Health. Like
an investor named Warren Buffett, he avoided technology stocks and the
hot stocks of the moment. He did not own a concentrated
portfolio; instead, he had a diversified portfolio with lots of
companies in many sectors. This diversification allowed him to spread
the risk broadly. Even owning failures such as Lehman Brothers had only a
modest impact on his returns.
SINGAPORE: DBS Group’s net profit rose 10 per cent
year-on-year to a record S$1.27 billion in the first quarter of 2015,
the bank announced on Monday (Apr 27).
Said Chief Executive
Officer Piyush Gupta: “DBS started the year on a solid footing, with
strong all-round performance yet again. Despite a slowdown in trade
volumes, the bank’s first-quarter earnings reached a record high. This
is testament to the strength and resilience of the DBS franchise. We
will continue to grow our business, while keeping a watchful eye on the
The spike in profit came as DBS’ total income grew 12
per cent to S$2.74 billion, amid net interest income and non-interest
income reaching new highs. The growth was broad-based across all
business units, the bank said in a news release.
income increased 14 per cent to S$1.69 billion. Loans grew by 11 per
cent to S$281 billion, as an increase in regional corporate borrowing
and secured consumer loans was partially offset by a decline in trade
loans, DBS said.
The bank’s non-interest income crossed S$1
billion for the first time, rising 9 per cent to S$1.05 billion. The fee
income increased 10 per cent to S$560 million. Meanwhile, contributions
from wealth management rose 43 per cent from higher unit trust and
insurance sales, and fees from credit and debit cards rose 23 per cent.
non-interest income grew 7 per cent to S$486 million. Income from
investment securities tripled to S$103 million amid profits from
All business units also attained record
income, said DBS. The Consumer Banking/Wealth Management income rose 29
per cent to S$861 million, and income from Institutional Banking came
in at 5 per cent higher, at S$1.35 billion. Meanwhile, Treasury income
rose 38 per cent to S$386 million.
There was also a one-time gain of S$136 million during the quarter, from the disposal of a property investment in Hong Kong.
total expenses rose 13 per cent to S$1.18 billion, in line with income
growth. Profit before allowances were up 10 per cent to S$1.56 billion.
Total allowances were 20 per cent higher at S$181 million, but general allowances of S$21 million were lower than a year ago.
Not exactly how to fix his investing strategy into the commonly known investing theme - Diversify or Concentrate? Uncle8888 is more of Diversify into rounds after rounds and leaving behind some Concentrate for storage like fake orange or apple juice.
His top three holding value of Kep Corp, Sembcorp Ind, and DBS at last Friday market closing price plus all past realized short-term P/L and accumulated dividends as percentage of his net worth.
Recently, he has been selling down his stake in DBS to return money to His CPF.
This colleague said Uncle8888's CPF sibei solid. He still have a few more years to go with his housing loan. He have upgraded; but Uncle8888 is still living in his 28 years old 4-room HDB flat. In life, we will have to live with some trade off since most of us have limited capability and ability. We will live under those decisions which we have made in the past for a long time. If Uncle8888 hasn't fought off his wife over the years not to upgrade, today his CPF will be jialiat too!
A bigger house is a bigger asset; but we have to make a U-Turn to monetize the net value. There is no free lunch!
Luckily, when Uncle8888 seriously started his short-term trading and long-term investing journey to his financial independence there were LESSER financial educators trying to make some money from small retail traders/investors like him than making big monies themselves from Mr. Market.
Even listening to some investors telling their personal investing stories also need to pay $1XX.
Join SIAS as associate members with no membership cost and you can attend many free seminars. This is what Uncle8888 was doing in those past years.
Go to SIAS website and find out more yourself. One important thing to do as retail investors is proactive. You go and search for your own information instead of waiting for someone to spoon feed you with details.
We can be seriously distracted by too many testimonials, loud shouting in cyber space and lost ourselves when searching for better mouse traps. Who can we believe now?
Two persons have came back to tell Uncle8888 after their simulation they can't retire at 62 when they have initially thought so. They have to cut their assumed living expenses farther in order to retire at 62 or hopefully their retirement age will be extended to 65 by Govt.
SEMBCORP Industries has made its foray into Myanmar's power market.
Friday, its wholly owned subsidiary, Sembcorp Utilities, received the
notice of award to develop and operate a 225-megawatt gas-fired power
plant in central Myanmar by the Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise
(MEPE), a division under the Ministry of Electric Power of Myanmar.
US$300 million power plant, located in the Myingyan district of
Mandalay division, is set to be the largest gas-fired independent power
plant in Myanmar.
The plant is expected to be completed in 2017
and will supply power to MEPE under a 22-year power-purchase agreement.
Sembcorp will have at least an 80 per cent stake in the project.
you would sell bonds for a living, for the sheer joy itself – the act
of efficiently allocating capital or whatever you tell yourself – then
you don’t care what your actual bonus is today from Goldman. So what if
you’re down 25% from last year, or you’re up 100%? Who cares? You
love it! If you’d do it anyway, and you can afford to do it, then you
are a wealthy person. - See more at:
It is about value, not price? Is not wrong; but exactly right!
It is about value. It is aboutprice! It is about position size.
For small retail long-RUN investors with limited investing capital, lower price means more shares acquired at the same investment cost. In holding stocks in our portfolio, a larger position at the same cost is easier to manage during its life-cycle in our portfolio. We can pyramid them out and in across market cycles and still grow Money Trees!
A larger stock position will enable meaningful partial profit taking strategy over rounds after rounds and we still have large enough position size leaving behind to have meaningful impact to our net worth.
How much impact to our net worth when we only have 1,000 or 2,000 shares for our rare multi-baggers?
Uncle8888 would have keep his big mouth shut if his position size in Kep Corp is not his No 1 Top holding in his portfolio.
This is reverse engineering to your investing. After this simulation, you will know:
(1) How much is enough for you? (2) How much more you will need to build up your war chest? (3) What is your expected ROC for your new investment? (4) Review whether your expected ROC is realistic to achieve? (5) If no, you have to save harder for a bigger war chest.
When Chairman or CEO who is also the largest shareholder ... retail shareholders are not their customers. Bo Hew. LOL! The Moral of the Story ... look for GLC's owned stocks where CEOs are just employees with imposed KPIs from the Board. :-)
Some of us may like to sell part of of our position to take partial profit in the bull market e.g. sell XX% as our profit taking strategy.
Uncle8888 doesn't like to downsize on his initial positions when these stocks are sitting on wide margin of safety with dream of yield.
In our lifetime in investing; how often can we get that many stocks so right!
Not many. Right? So we happily cut some because the stock market volatility has made us so nervous and lose our sleep. When is stock market NEVER volatile? We must be mentally and financially prepared for market volatility throughout our lifetime in investing.
We remember these wise words "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much
money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're
wrong." ~George Soros
How does Uncle like to take his profit during the Bull market?
Buy more of itbut at much smaller position during Bull marketto take partial profit!
An improved version for us to simulate and know (1) how much is enough to retire and (2) how hard we have to make our investment portfolio work for us?
Not everybody needs $50K passive income from our investment income to live our lifestyle.
For example, like Uncle8888's colleague who doesn't like overseas travel and vacation so he doesn't see the need for Passport.
Ordinary retirees in Singapore are likely to depend on combination of their investment portfolio, CPF OA, CPF SA and CPF Life and supported by some level of emergency cash and adequate medical coverage that fix our daily lifestyle. Everyday, we treat ourselves 365 days a year and year after year in B1, B2 or C Ward; but when we are suddenly sick; we "demand" A ward treatment.
That is strange! Guilty conscience at play or what?
Hardly any investment or financial bloggers seriously talk about Human Asset as part of financial education.
But, here. Uncle8888 keeps mentioning it. He realized it should be part of financial education. We can become rich and achieve financial independence through our human asset and NOT necessary through financial assets.
When we are younger, our human asset is the most important asset that keeps producing sustainable and growing cash flow in the form of salaries, commissions, fees, bonuses, etc.
Younger folks in their 20s; don't get overly excited over financial asset as your road to financial independence. Who knows you have been identified as the talent to be developed for your company's future leadership position.
When we reach our late 30s or early 40s, most of us should already know deep in our heart that option of our human asset to achieve financial independence has expired as we cannot see ourselves climbing higher up the corporate ladder to earn million dollars pay package.
BTW, we must not think that other people in our office are not watching what we are doing above our assigned activities. Remember, we are their competitor when come to distribution of annual rewards, bonus, compensation and recommendation for promotion.
Don't play play in the office. Eyes are watching and walls have ears!
First, you must try to understand Uncle8888's Wealth Formula:
Wealth = Asset Value + Cash Flow
We create wealth from the stock market from high appreciating asset value (best are those multi-baggers) and receive (1) year after year of cash flow from dividends from these assets or (2) cash flow by taking small profitand return the asset back to the market and kill off future cash flow. Cash is King only when we can safely buy back similar asset value with the same level of cash flow.
Buying back is not difficult. You may like to think so.
How many times have you try to do it?
Uncle8888 has tried to buy back so many times. Try until sianz!
So he knows what he is talking. Remember his Round X or Round XX. But, after 15 years, he still haven't hit his first Round 100 announcement. Sianz! Self consolation. He is not full time trader!
Next, you must try to understand when you should be taking small profits and when you should NOT even try to take small profits.
Hard to understand? So cheem?
Profiting from the Bull market and profiting from the Bear market is never the same.
Buying in the late Bull and don't know how to take profits; soon you are going to regret and feel sorry!
When we buy in the Bull and especially buying in the late Bull, we must make our money from cash flow by realizing profits and even small profits; but buying in the late Bear, it is different story.
Knowing that difference is how you can become richer from stocks.
No BS! No Snake Oil Selling here! Based on his personal experience from last GFC as PART-TIME retail investor and after so many years; he finally realized that it is not that easy to become rich from cash flow by taking small profits. Those who can they will trade full time for a living. Some also "can"; but teach full-time to show you can do it part-time. Here is the case study on his Kep Corp. Walan!
Keep talking about Keppel.
Sianz bo Uncle!
Some tulan folks may start to Twit or comment in their Facebook to show their displeasure!
But never mind. Old man likes "Wa Ka Li Kong!" Bo hew!
What happened when he never sell for 13.6 years since Sep 2001?
407% or 12.7% CAGR from cash flow over 13.6 yrs and add in value asset into Wealth Formula. BTW, it is not including $0.36 that will be XD on 22 Apr 15. It is 1,009% or 19.9% CAGR over 13.6 years as of 17 Apr 15 market closing price.
What happened when he buy and sell over 13.6 years since Sep 2001 for 94 rounds?
His total cash flow by taking small profits is about 564% and that is an average of about 6% per round.
If he takes 1,009% from "Never sell but receive cash flow from dividends" and divided by 94 rounds and that is an average of about 11% per round of earnING and earnED.
Did you see the difference?
One is doing nothing more. Shake leg and collect money dropping from Money Tree. The other one is analyzing hard to find where to collect money. Siao bo?
Buying in the Bull or especially in late Bull you better learn to take small profit fast and survive.
But, how do know we are in late Bull?
So, just sell and take small profit. It is that simple. Is never wrong to take profit in the Bull.
But; buying in the late Bear and by taking small profit in the Bull or especially in the early Bull, it is quite certain that you are going to miss out the rare opportunity of becoming richer from stocks.
Cash flow by taking small profit and Cash flow from collecting dividends is different. We must try to understand how our mind think of cash flow.
One is "scare to lose". Take first! The other one is "no scare". Why scare? Got cash flow coming. Scare for what?
How to become rich from stocks? Back to Uncle8888's Wealth Formula again. Stock Wealth = Sitting on volatile unrealized high asset value (best are those multi-baggers) + growing cash flow. (growth dividend stocks) Repeating it over long run by adding more stocks soon you will become richer and richer and then become rich enough to change to Sustainable Retirement Income For Life investing strategy.
How do we know it is buying in late Bear and selling in the early Bull? This is the precisely the reason why not many retail investors become richer from stocks. Right?
Most can write with one hand. How about writing with both hand at the same time?
You can see the recent rise in DBS stock price has made its dividend @ $0.58 not so attractive as cash flow for volatile asset comparing to the 2.5% interest earned in CPF OA as fixed asset. It is a small premium paid to trade off for a peace of mind on the road to the next Bear market.
The Most Important Question to clarify with your "Guru" at investment seminars or events? Next time when your Gurus are talking about their great investment return, you should ask them the most important question.
Is this stock of your BEST investment return also your TOP holding for many year across market cycles?
From their answers, you do your own thinking? Luck or Conviction? See the difference!
Who don't want to make more money as investors or traders when they are so convicted of their stock pick?
SINGAPORE: Sembcorp Industries said on Wednesday (Apr
15) it will build a 150-megawatt wind farm in the Hebei province,
further expanding its renewable energy business in China.
of the wind farm in Laoshibeihe will start this year, with completion
expected by the second half of 2017. The wind farm will cost about
around S$300 million and Sembcorp’s share of the equity investment will
amount to around S$45 million.
Separately, another wind farm in
Jiedijianhe with a 48-megawatt power capacity has commenced operation
and is supplying power to the Hebei South grid.
facilities include a biomass station and an energy-from-waste facility
in the UK, energy-from-waste operations in Singapore and wind power
assets in China. The Singapore firm also co-owns and operates wind and
solar power assets in India.
That "Gu Shen" feeling is back again! We are now seeing more bloggers exhibiting that "Gu Shen" feeling.
We can also see some of their followers openly praising and thanking their "Shen" for helping them to make money. STI is at the highest since Oct 2007. Soon there will more "Shens" showing off as there are definitely many more investment bloggers now than in 2007.
9MFY2015 revenue up 6.3% to S$569.9 million mainly due to higher revenue from construction segment from the on-going and new construction projects, despite the substantial revenue recognition from industrial project M-Space in 9MFY2014
Construction order book stood at approximately S$640 million as at 28 February 2015, providing sustainable flow activities through FY2017
Group’s cash and cash equivalents stood at S$153.6 million as at 28 February 2015, ready to fund potential investment opportunities Co-development of workers’ dormitory and training centre for ASPRI expected to complete in mid-2016, contributing to Group’s recurring income thereafter
1. Cash generated from operations was $13.5 million for 1Q 2015
compared to $14.4 million for 1Q 2014. The lower cash generated from
operations was mainly due to the transaction costs paid in relation to
the proposed transaction with CitySpring Infrastructure Trust and the
acquisition of a 51% stake in Keppel Merlimau Cogen Pte Ltd.
2. Group revenue for 1Q 2015 was $16.6 million, 1.1% lower than 1Q
2014. Operation and maintenance income was $12.8 million, 0.5% higher
compared to 1Q 2014.
3. Profit after tax for 1Q 2015 was $4.3 million, resulting in
earnings per unit (EPU) of 0.68 cents for the quarter, which was 21.4%
higher compared to 1Q 2014 due to lower electricity costs and lower
4. Net asset value per unit as at 31 March 2015 was $0.90 compared to
$0.94 as at 31 December 2014, mainly due to the distribution payment of
4.69 cents per unit on 13 February 2015.
Keppel REIT's 1Q 2015 distribution income up approximately 18% q-o-q
Achieves DPU growth of 13% q-o-q, Upward trend of office rental reversion gathers momentum with 19% growth in rental rates in 1Q 2015
Sustained level of distributable income year-on-year ("y-o-y")
notwithstanding the expiry of rental support from the 87.5% interest in
Ocean Financial Centre in January 2015, the absence of income
contribution from Prudential Tower and the absence of rental support
from Marina Bay Financial Centre ("MBFC") Phase One
Distribution per Unit ("DPU") grew 13% quarter-on-quarter ("q-o-q")
to 1.70 cents due to a full-quarter contribution from MBFC Tower 3 and
stronger performance from Bugis Junction Towers
Successfully reviewed two-thirds of the leases due in 2015, all with positive rent reversions
Achieved positive rental rate reversion of 19% for all office leases signed, renewed and reviewed in 1Q 2015
High tenant retention rate of approximately 96% in 1Q 2015
Close to 80% of total leases are not due for renewal till 2017 and beyond
Maintained high committed portfolio occupancy of 99.3%, with nine of
11 completed office towers in Singapore and Australia fully committed
Proactive capital management strategy saw the maiden issuance of a
seven-year $50 million fixed-rate Medium Term Notes, which is due in
Over 80% of borrowings are not due for repayment till 2017 and beyond
Continuing the upward trend of office rental reversions, Keppel
REIT's current strong portfolio will continue to deliver sustainable
distributions for FY2015
Of course, Uncle8888 knows you love your works/job so much that you are NOT keen to pursue financial independence when staying employed becomes an option.
You also don't care about freedom of time and don't mind being scheduled for most of your time.
BUT. Like it or not. We all need to learn to become wealthy. Being wealthy, we don't have to worry about paying our next bills.
The Most Important financial education image which has been shared with many by Uncle8888 ... Not pursuing financial independence? Never mind. It is okay! But, at least you can be inspired and learn to become wealthy.
Looking back on hindsight and learning from past experience.
A larger war chest with spread out buying when the market down at least 20% i.e. technically enter into a bear market.
A larger war chest is something Uncle8888 regretted not preparing for it in 2007. Let see how far off in his market timing when he had a larger war chest to spread out his buying before GFC for his top three holding - Kep Corp, Sembcorp, and DBS.
Last week, Uncle8888 visited his 84 years old relative who has suffered heart attack but manage to recover from the attack to stay alive.
His doctor has advised him to go for heart by-pass, stent, or balloon; or else he will die soon. He refused to do anything. He said nobody is going to change his mind. He said he is 84 and lives long enough to face his Lord!
When his doctor told him that he will die if he chooses to do nothing.
He told me that he replied to his doctor: "You die. I die. Doctors also die!". His doctor said: : "Ya." and smiled.
Uncle8888 has been probing those white-hair Zebras around in his office; but his probing results didn't show that experience with past market cycles made us wiser and profitable. Once we were badly burnt; we are likely to chop our fingers and stay away from the market.
He is 55+. He couldn't meet his CPF Minimum Sum so his 5-Rm HDB flat was automatically pledged. He confessed he lost heavily during AFC and especially in CLOB saga. He still remember those days of just watching TeleText and made easy money doing active contra trading.
One particular stock, he could remember so well - Van Horst. (Oldies may know this stock). He "contra-ed" for seven times in one week and made lots of money. In pre-AFC days, CPF members could draw out their profits to spend; but losses were retained in their CPF investment account. This was how CPF members hold on their losses but spent away their profits on expenses. Shiok? Read? In Investing, ACCOUNT SIZE really MATTERS! Why???
till today can still remember clearly when two very experienced cyber
investing kakis in the stock market who believed in their favourite and
trusted Guru's view in Mar 2009 were congratulating themselves for
staying very cash rich in Mar 2009. One was 90% cash and the other 100%
SINGAPORE: DBS Bank and Manulife Financial Asia on
Wednesday (Apr 8) announced a 15-year regional distribution agreement
whereby the Canadian insurance group will pay the Singapore lender an
initial US$1.2 billion (S$1.6 billion). The exclusive life
partnership, which takes effect on Jan 1, 2016, will cover Singapore,
Hong Kong, China and Indonesia. DBS' current bancassurance agreement
with Aviva will conclude at the end of 2015.
Manulife will gain
access to DBS' large and growing retail, wealth and small and medium
enterprise (SME) customer base of 6 million, while DBS will be able to
sell a suite of life and health insurance solutions from Manulife
through its branch network as well as via its internet and mobile
banking platforms. Besides the initial payment of US$1.2
billion, Manulife will also make ongoing, variable payments to DBS
"based on the success of the partnership", the two firms said in a joint
statement. The bancassurance model - which involves selling
insurance through banks as opposed to the traditional agency - is
lucrative for commercial banks in Asia because global insurers are
willing to pay hefty fees for access to lenders' branch networks. According
to Reuters, AIA Group struck a 15-year exclusive deal with Citibank in
Asia in 2013, for which AIA made a US$800 million upfront payment. UK
insurer Prudential also struck an agreement last year with Standard
Chartered, agreeing to pay US$1.25 billion in fees to extend its current
agreement for 15 years. DBS CEO Mr Piyush Gupta said:
“Bancassurance is a key focus for DBS and an important part of our
overall customer value proposition." Manulife is the world's
sixth-largest life insurer with principal operations in Asia, Canada and
the United States, where it operates under the John Hancock name. The
company first established a presence in Singapore in 1898 while its Hong
Kong operations began in 1897. Assets under management by Manulife and
its subsidiaries were approximately C$691 billion (S$753 billion) as at
Dec 31, 2014.
Whenever we read in the cyber world that someone said this: "I nimble." They are practicing sound Mind and Money principle. They won't feel sorry when the stock price drops farther and farther as their Money will help to keep them in the game longer than expected.
With 100 shares lot size, many retail can nimble?
Yes. We can.
But, it can be costly affair to nimble that many rounds. Why in investing our account size really matters? So that we can nimble. Sound Mind and Money!
"I only did it once contrary to the common wisdom as advised by many investment bloggers and advisers"
Think, Think, Think and think above the common wisdom of compounding interests of 4%.
Mr. Market rarely gives us his opportunity; but over the next 10 to 20 years when he did. Can we after so many years in the stock market as active learners and inspiring to be "savvy" investors in our lifetime beat this 4% compounding wonder?
Book: Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing by Charles D. Ellis The loser’s game is about sticking to fundamentals, avoiding mistakes and minimizing unnecessary risks.
After paying for very costly real life investing lessons in GFC, Uncle8888 truly knows that he is playing The Loser's Game in the stock market. It is more about avoiding forced selling. Going forward he doesn't expect his current investing and money management strategy to end up with any forced selling to stay alive.
Whenever he looked at this chart; it will tell him that he should be playing The Loser's Game. It is very clear where has gone wrong!
Uncle8888 has been there before. If you are doing it too. He can understand. It is quite normal as newbies to follow our "Gu Shen" or "Gurus". One lesson that he learned as follower ...
Beware of following any illiquid stocks initiated by your "Gu Shen" because it is NOT that difficult to buy as you can buy slightly higher price; but it is very difficult to sell at your expected price to the selling price of "Gu Shen" or "Guru".
Uncle8888 used to follow this well known "Guru" who has retired as millionaire. But it is still not so clear whether he came millionaire from selling his business or investment portfolio.
Quite a number of times, after he has sold his entire holding, he would announce he has sold; stated his reason for selling and wished us good luck. You can guess what happened after his public announcement for those illiquid stocks. Beware of illiquid stocks! Your "Guru" may be quietly and patiently bought or sold these illiquid stocks; BUT, the rest of us will be buying and selling these illiquid stocks NOT quietly.
I am 58+ yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only.
I am still making my way to an early retirement by 2016 at 60 yrs old. Official retirement age in Singapore is 62; but can be re-employed up to 65.
I have two sons and one daughter. Two working adult children and the youngest son is in NS.
My wife is a home CEO without income. There are two mouths counting on me for financial support, so I have to do well in this investing journey. There is little room for failure!
Last updated: 22 May 2014
Disclaimer: Stock trading involves significant risks. Create Wealth trader is not a licensed Investment Adviser and will not be responsible for any losses which you incurred. You are advised to always do your own homework before making any trading decision.