One Good Reason To Invest ....

 

Other than reaching FIRE,  most of us after the official retirement age, we will still have that many years to support ourselves and our passion. Our passion may not be another career!

 

 

... "Ultimately, investing is a path to freedom. You can basically do anything you want to if you have enough wealth to underpin your lifestyle"

 

 

 

 

Singapore is an Island But .....

Singapore is an island but still lack of fishing spots. 

That is an amazing Joke!

So many past fishing spots are banned now.

From North to South.

From East to West.

 
 
 

Investing in O&G: Past, Present, and Future!

Kep Corp and SembCorp Ind are not pure O & G play.

Uncle8888 has been in them long enough for active long and short plays to tell the real story behind them. 

No concept or theory whatsoever!

It is Real People, Real Holding and Real Pain in the Ass when they are the top 2 holding in his portfolio with their daily stock price movement!

Kep Corp since Sep 2001 after Sep 11 WTC Attack and SCI since Dec 2002 after Solitaire case caused its stock price to tumble.

How bad after so many years of Buy and Hold?

How great is trading in and out?


See for yourself and deduce your conclusion ...

Market timing and Time in the Market?

or Both?

No Right Method Ever?

Stop looking for one?


Read? Kep Corp : Bought @ $9.64 for Round 95

Read? SembCorp Industries (SCI): Bought @ $4.97 for Round 54

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

We are fans of Batman and Superman!

Life: The role reversal!

Father brought sons to movie; but now is son brought father to movie.

Jog To Waterway Point (3)

Read? Jog To Waterway Point (2)

Where next after Waterway Point?


After 1 hr and 40 mins of jogging; Uncle8888 came to Lor Buangkok and stopped out at Yio Chu Kang road and then walked to Hougang Point mall for 100 Plus drink to cool down.

So he has completed both Serangoon and Punggol Waterway.

These two waterways are part of Singapore's Four Taps water solution. Massive amount of water when he realized it while jogging along these two waterways.

Thumb up!

Time, Effort and Knowledge Doesn't Really Make Us Successful Retail Investors??? (2)

Read? Time, Effort and Knowledge Doesn't Really Make Us Successful Retail Investors???

 

Game198026 March 2016 at 11:34:00 GMT+8

 

This is so vague
What did he buy?
If he bought index fund, he would at least perform with the index

So what is the issue?

 

CW8888:

 

His fault?

 

Really?

 

No. But, can blame his Horoscope not aligned to the Investing Star when he decided to start investing!

 

Remembered that he has started in 2006.

 

 

The Luck Factor in Investing!

 

That is TRUE! This is NOT joking or kidding!

 

Who still don't believe in market timing? See the chart!

 

How was the investing climate in 2006?

 

FOMO in action?

 

Buying on the way up.

 

How was the investing climate in 2008?

 

Incredible bargain hunting season!

 

Averaging down for those have bought higher in 2006 and 2007. Why not?

 

But, how many RETAIL investors with deep pocket who could still be in the Game of Investing after 2 to 3 years of actions in the stock market?

 

 

But, whoever has JUST started in 2009 or 2010 would tell a different story on Real People, Real Story?

 

Will that Man said something here?

 

If not wrong, he came in 2010 with large Pot of Gold from his earned income?

 

The rest of his History is about Leisure!

 

 

The Luck Factor (Market Timing?)

 

 

On Blog Leave : 29 Mar 16 to 1 Apr 2016

Three nights and four days of JUST FISHING!

Losses: Realized or Paper Losses. Be Ourselves And Fill Our Own Wallet!!!

Stop loss?

Cut loss?

Realized losses!

Paper losses!

Real or imaginary losses?

What is Uncle8888's thinking on real or imaginary losses?

 

 

 

By his past 16 years with Depth (9.x cm) and Weight (3.5 Kg), all commonly understood points, theory or concepts on stop loss, cut loss, real or imaginary losses are well taken and noted. Most importantly; he understood it financially!

ALL losses whether REAL or IMAGINARY were financially accounted on daily basis and marked to the last stock market closing price.

No illusion!

 

Financially and Mathematically accounted!

 

 

 

Stop losses are for traders. Cut losses are for investors - CW8888

Can anyhow say meh?

The two components of 3Ms - Method, Mind, and Money Management i.e. Mind and Money management.

It is all in our mind and money management.



For traders who are trading for a living; they may have little choice but to trade as often they SHOULD in order to make money from the stock market; otherwise they will be eating Wind. 

With such frequency of trades can they still survive without stop loss strategy in place?

For traders, the so-called "cut losses" are actually poorly executed stop loss.

Be clear about it. Are you trading or investing for long run and you have no doubt that your war chest will be growing too?


For retail investors who are into wealth building phase over year after year of market cycles and keeps pumping new money into your war chest; it is should be how long and how deep can you stay in this Game of Investing?


Do you continue to add more new money on top of old money in your war chest?

Do you still need to add new money from the stock market on top of old money in our war chest?

Is your war chest is running too low?



Losses: Realized or Paper Losses.

Be Ourselves And Fill Our Own Wallet!!!

BUT, no illusion over losses!

Most importantly, you shouldn't come to the stock market with your new money that you need them over the next 5 to 7 years.

This type of new money; you better keep it safe somewhere.

Two cents view from this Old Man!



 

How Much Is Enough? Knowing and Validating It Is Enough?

We can't never be sure that we will have enough for the future. Of course, the more money we have we may have more secure financial future!

But, in life there always be trade off.

We reap what we sow.

It will be Give and Take!

Take back more time freedom to be on our own but we have to give back our earned income as employees and survive on non-earned income.

So far, there are two thoughts coming from meeting or bumping into colleagues and ex-colleagues in the organization ..

(1) Why retire when we can work till 62/65 or coming up to 67?

(2) Share with me how to retire?


Knowing and validating it is enough.

Putting thing together financially!

Time, Effort and Knowledge Doesn't Really Make Us Successful Retail Investors???

Real People. Real Story!

He started in his 40 with a sizeable investing capital in 2006, after more than 10 years of reading many books on investing, reading tons of analysts reports, doing TA and FA, reading blogs, forums and including frequent visits to CW8888 blog, etc.

He did all he could to improve his investment portfolio performance; but he is still sitting on net loss of more than 60% in his investment portfolio.

What went wrong?


Is investing somehow unique unlike other life skills, activities or sports, where we can improve ourselves over time if we put in more time, effort and determination to learn?

So how?

GLP

Getting interesting!

Read? GLP : Bought @ $1.605 for Round 1

Assessing Company Management???

Just another Motherhood statement. In fact, it is useless at execution level.

After 40 years with the company, Uncle8888 still have not much clues on assessing his company management; but some folks think that after attending AGM for 1 to 2 hours a year can do that. Amazing!

What Is Frugality Really Look Like?

Uncle8888 doesn't spend MORE than his net earned income after tax as he has been budgeting for his yearly spending.

He will be spending his LAST year's bonus in according to the following year economic forecast. He has picked up this habit after 1998 AFC when his variable bonus for that year was zero and his pay were cut for the first time since he started working in Aug 1977.

Our bonus and pay can never be seen as safe!

When time is looking bad ahead; he will stretch his last year's bonus over the next two years.

From his monthly and yearly spending trend, can this be frugality too?

If not, what is really frugality?

Hougang’s waterways to be revamped

A 1.3 km section of the canal along Hougang Avenue 10, and from Hougang Avenue 4 to Buangkok Drive, will have more greenery.


CW8888: Ho Seh liao! Will be direct view from his flat for this greenery canal under ABC Waters projects.

What Should You Be Doing During Recent STI Rally?

Quite a number of bloggers have posted on this topic.

Ok lah lor. Uncle8888 has to join in the fun.

Asking "same" in another way.

(1) How deep is your pocket now?

(2) How strong is your belief in market cycle?


Look at these two images closely and visualize them in your mind!

 

 

 

 

Now close your eyes for 5 minutes.

Breath slowly and relax your mind.

Find your own answers. LOL!

Investing Made Simple By Uncle8888 (39)

Read? Investing Made Simple By Uncle8888 (38)


3Ms in investing. Method, Mind and Money Management.

Focus more on Mind and Money Management!

Simply ....

1. Track. Track. Track.

2. Measure. Measure. Measure.

3. Evaluate. Evaluate. Evaluate.

4. Ask yourself! Is this SUSTAINABLE and meeting your investing GOALS?

5. If NO, CHANGE! Revise your investing strategy and Method.

6. If YES, be YOURSELF!

DBS : V Price Recovery!

Uncle8888 is big fan of "loon" instead of cut loss to relieve pain!

The Past is not the Present and the Present is not the Future!

The best is to size our positions correctly at our investment portfolio LEVEL to avoid any damaging financial consequences due to a few bad decisions or grave mistakes.

Cut loss at the wrong turn is equally painful!

Do or do not. There is no try - Master Yoda

STI Update

Is This Sustainable Retirement Income For Life?

Read? Sustainable Retirement Income For Life - Three Taps Solution - Revised slides


After Uncle8888's 60th birthday, he will UNJOB himself from the corporate world from minding Bosses' KPIs to minding his own money and receives cash flow as follows:


(1) Basic Annual Pay (It is more like fixed income with small variation on year-to-year) : Interests


(2) Variable Bonus: Dividends from his local SGX stocks portfolio.

(3) Performance Incentive or Claw back: Trading P/L. This is 100% performance based on his trading skill or craft. It is either incentive or claw back.


 

Knowing his annual household living expenses

Knowing the sources of Cash Flow

Implementing strategy: Simple but may not be easy!

 

His Retirement Income

Real People. Real Story!

This 61 years old colleague came to Uncle8888 to talk about his retirement income and seek advice on how to prepare for his retirement @ 65 or 67 if re-employment age changed to 67.

We came out with this retirement income tracking worksheet for him to start in Apr 2016.

Look closely. Like that also can meh? 

OK lah! Happy can liao.

What did you see?


SUMMARY PAGE

Bloggers taken by surprise by IRAS letter on taxable income

Read? Bloggers taken by surprise by IRAS letter on taxable income


For IRAS to plug this revenue loophole, these bloggers must be making tons of money to attract Taxman attention.

SGX: Sold @ $7.76

Read? SGX : Bought @ $6.87


Round 1: ROC 12.3%, 61 day, B $6.87 S $7.76

Beware of Self-enhancing transmission bias Among Us - The Investment and Finance Bloggers! (2)

Read? Beware of Self-enhancing transmission bias Among Us - The Investment and Finance Bloggers!


Uncle8888 has been following two local Gurus (investment blogger or cyber investment influencer) for years till their RIP.

One of them poked until his RIP also no answer from him. It is simple Yes or No. But it is damn morally difficult to answer!

Did you make your millions from your investment portfolio's gains or from your business?


How did they make EVEN MUCH MORE money after becoming successful retail investor as influencer?


They become Business Owner!

Beware of Self-enhancing transmission bias Among Us - The Investment and Finance Bloggers!

Read? It happened again – Self-enhancing transmission bias


Know the difference between accumulating $1M Investment Portfolio to generate passive income and building up $1M Investment Portfolio with XX% CAGR.

Knowing this CAGR number and the size of investment portfolio will tell us the true story in the world of investment i.e. Return on Human Asset vs. Financial Assets - The Absolute and Real Contributor of our wealth.

Don't get it wrong right at the initial phase of our working life.

The return on our human asset is still the solid foundation to the return on our investment portfolio. For the younger ones, don't ever get it wrong!

BTW, Uncle8888's two working children haven't started their stock picking yet. The reason is quite clear. No hurry. Build up their human asset and save well.

It is not an early start that will win the race. It is starting right with the reasonable amount of resources at the right time that will help them to win the race.

Human Asset vs. Financial Assets - No Illusion on Return!

It happened again – Self-enhancing transmission bias

Read? It happened again – Self-enhancing transmission bias

Quote:

The good news is:  Apparently everyone shares their successes more than their failures.

The bad news is:  This Self-Enhancing Transmission Bias leads to a false perception of reality and inability to accurately assess situations.



CW8888: Well said. Good one!

Hope more hobbyist bloggers will share more reality on investing and trading. It is not like those bloggers with vested interests sharing that you follow this and that. You will get XX% annualized return.

Not that easy folks!

But, it is still okay if you treat your course fees like losing your money in ToTo or 4D.

When Uncle8888 showed these images to some of his younger colleagues who think that long-term investing is the path to financial independence. He hopes that these images will strike them hard enough. Long-term investing may NOT necessary end up with more wealth if they got it seriously wrong somewhere along their investing journey.

Look careful. What it takes to be successful but bulk of the time is NOT!

Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Ind?

They are NOT just O&G!

You think you know how to analyse them properly? Uncle8888 doesn't. So no point asking him!


They are far too big and too complex for retail investors to analyse.


You think those research reports do?

Uncle8888 bought Keppel Corp and SembCorp Ind when they are down deeply based on chart. Of course, their yield on investment cost are reasonably good enough.

Approach investing like buying durians

Tuesday, 7 December 2010

Read? Stock Picking is like Choosing your own durians?

LOL!

Different approach but same durian theory!

SGX : Can you break it?

Where does Egg Come From?

We all know the Answer once we reach certain age in our life! Right?


Where does our dividends and interests come from?


Size of our capital!


Be better at increasing the size of our capital then the size of dividends will naturally follow. It is no different from eggs. When chicken become hens, we naturally will have more eggs.

In investing and saving, our account size really matters!

How to get special treatment from our friendly Bankers?

Size matters!

What Happen To Our Investment Portfolio After Us??? (2)

Read? What Happen To Our Investment Portfolio After Us???


When we are Lao Jiao in the stock market; we can ride the price volatility in our investment portfolio like nothing has happened. But can our successor to our investment portfolio behave like us in the stock market?

Can he go and tell Auntie8888 that Warren Buffet said ..

Price Volatility is not risk.

Risk is permanent loss of capital.


When our investment portfolio reaches certain level; the daily price movement or volatility in portfolio may be damaging or scary to untested investing mind.

May go into depression. Right? Especially in the Land of Retirement.

What Happen To Our Investment Portfolio After Us???

Read? Mortality - Are We Well Protected?)

High chance of Uncle8888's investment portfolio under joint account will be rotting for dividends if any and may be forgotten.

The main reason for his kind of net worth assets allocation is that his spouse is not interested in investing so there is no points talking about it; but she will know to count interests as collecting them is stress free. LOL!

After Decades Of Investing In The Stock Market Are You Still Staring at Trees Or Looking At Forest???

Uncle8888 has been there before staring bitterly at a few rotten trees. There is no way to feel good!

But, after decades of riding the stock market cycles and becoming a veteran in the stock market; he has came to term. He has learnt to look at Forest and not at Trees.


In the Forest, there will always be no shortage of rotten Trees. We can never escape; but we learn to accept them and move on.

The Forest is still so greenish.  No worry! Right.

Investment Portfolio Benchmarking Among The World's Well Known Investors - Updated on Warren Buffet for 2015

Read? Investment Portfolio Benchmarking Among The World's Well Known Investors 


How to be like Warren Buffet?


Steady, Steady. Pom Pi Pi.

19.2% CAGR over 51 years!

Asset Return: Home (Unrealized Capital Gains from Government Subsidized 4-Room HDB Flat) vs. Stocks (Local stocks in SGX)

Read? Asset Return: Home (Unrealized Capital Gains from Government Subsidized 4-Room HDB Flat) vs. Stocks (Local stocks in SGX)

Somewhat different for residential home as investment return vs. stock portfolio is that for stocks once we sold for investment return; it is not necessary we need to find replacement. But for home, we will need replacement. After discounting the cost of replacement, likely to a few % below 7.8%

Ron Sim Makes Unconditional Cash Offer to privatise

Offer Price of S$1.32 represents a 31.8% premium over 1-month VWAP and a 33.5%

premium over 3-month VWAP


WTF: One round tio suck finger!

1.32 + 0.05 (Panadol) = 1.37. Lost $0.06+ brokerage!

 Net loss @ -4.5%

SGX and GLP : Fortune Telling Next Week?

Learn How To Invest Like Warren Buffet or Charlie Munger?

Of course, you can to attend a course to teach you value investing and learn to invest like Warren Buffet or Charlie Munger or read a few books on Warren Buffet investing. 



Read? You Want to Invest Like Warren Buffet?


Read? What are you waiting for?


 SMK ....  remember, Mr Buffett is not a value investor, not a growth investor, not a dividend investor, he is a businessman.


CW8888: Well said!


Warren Buffet doesn't buy shares. He bought businesses and influence them or employ his people to influence or manage them directly.

Read this news ... Still catch no ball?

DBS : He Didn't Get Them Right But Not Judgement Day To Condemn Him To Hell!

Read? DBS: Bought Back @ $16.01


In trading for a living, they have to be right and wrong to make money to survive; but for retail investors with full time job, they just need to have plenty of gut and patience and most importantly NO EMPTY wallet to be right once again to make money. See the difference?

Headache?

No worry! Reasonable dose of Panadols will ease the pain.

Who influence you into investing? (4)

Read? Who influence you into investing? (3)


Once we fully understand how market cycles happen; we may be smart enough to make money from the stock market. It is matter of winning it bigger or smaller at every market cycle.

Look closely at the image! 


What did you see?

What did you learn so that you too can benefit from future market cycles?


We will love both Bull and Bear. We love them all as there are limited editions in our investing lifetime. Recognize and don't waste them!

Who influence you into investing? (3)

Read? Who influence you into investing? (2)

The Secret To Uncle8888's Retirement Income for life ....

No large number!

For many average income earners like Uncle8888; it is not necessary about accumulating $XXX,XXX investment income from $X,XXX,XXX portfolio so that he can retire comfortably. If that is the case, then he can forget about retirement or earlier retirement.

It is about knowing how much is enough to cover his historical HIGHEST annual household expenses and also war chest to fight future inflation.

Simple investing strategy to love The Bull and The Bear to build up retirement income for life.

Catch Falling Knives??? Must Have Strong Heart and No Empty Wallet!

Riding The Local Stock Market STI Up and Down With The Wealth Formula.

Wealth = Asset Value + Cash Flow


The market will make us feel richer or poorer; but the volatile ride may not actually feel us any poorer even though our asset value clearly indicate so.

We see we know it ...

Feeling richer or feeling poorer!

 

 

Feeling cash is rotting

 

 

 

 

But counting interests, counting dividends, and taking partial profit are not really affected by the up and down of the market!

 

The Past. The Present and The Coming Up!