Financial advisers love to scare their potential clients on inflation! So scary meh? For younger folks; did you see your parents, grand-parents and great-grand-parents broke down due to inflation? Honestly; Uncle8888 since started working in Aug 1977 till Sep 2016; he didn't really feel the pains of inflation hitting him hard; but the real heartache came from seeing his investment portfolio collapsing so fast! LOL!
Losses in your investment portfolio is far more scary than year on year inflation.
We need language Master like SMOL know the difference. Right?
If you look closely from left to right year on year and always wishing for more to come. Seductive yield trap or yield hog? After 14 years; DBS also becoming sexy yield of 16% from 2018 and sustainable for the next few years. On the other hand; we have When a Giant Gain Causes Pain (4) . Investing may be simple but never easy to handle emotionally! It will be continuous struggle even in winning game! Why? Many of us are not so mechanical or Automatic. Time for Robo investing? LOL! But; that is outsourcing like buying a Robo floor sweeper to do the job; but Robo can't lift or move away your chairs to sweep it.
These three quotes; Uncle8888 can relate better. No parroting! Really doing them! 2. “But Charlie and I sleep well. Both of us believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need.” Buffett and Charlie Munger’s aversion to using leverage may have “dampened” their returns over the last 53 years, but the long-term focused investors don’t seem all that bothered by it. 5. “When major declines occur, however, they offer extraordinary opportunities to those who are not handicapped by debt.” Leverage might boost returns when prices go up, but it’s devastating when prices go down, which is when solvent investors are able buy cheaply. 6. “Though markets are generally rational, they occasionally do crazy things. Seizing the opportunities then offered does not require great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon such as alpha and beta.”
SMOL prefers Verb than Noun in his trading if Uncle8888 is not mistaken.
For investment portfolio management; many Gurus are advising retail investors not to concentrate (Verb) as it is very risky since most retail investors don't have that level of competency to concentrate (Verb) yet. But; for Uncle8888's portfolio management it is currently concentrate (Noun) with a few freehold core holding and a large war chest. How risky? Concentrate as verb or noun? See any difference? Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (6)
CW8888: Even you are the world's greatest investor; Mr. Market no hew you during market crash!
Warren Buffett believes investors should avoid using borrowed money to outperform.
The Oracle of Omaha explained the perils of using debt and leverage in his 2017 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders released on Saturday.
"Berkshire, itself, provides some vivid examples of how price randomness in the short term can obscure long-term growth in value. For the last 53 years, the company has built value by reinvesting its earnings and letting compound interest work its magic. Year by year, we have moved forward. Yet Berkshire shares have suffered four truly major dips," he wrote.
The investor shared the data which revealed Berkshire Hathaway's stock declined by a range of 37 percent to 59 percent multiple times over the last five decades.
"This table offers the strongest argument I can muster against ever using borrowed money to own stocks. There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period," he wrote. "Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren't immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions."
Buffett predicted the company's stock will fall again by similar large declines in the next 53 years.
"No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow," he wrote. "When major declines occur, however, they offer extraordinary opportunities to those who are not handicapped by debt."
The investor shared an excerpt from British Nobel laureate Rudyard Kipling's 1895 poem "If—" to illuminate the investing lesson:
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs . . . If you can wait and not be tired by waiting . . . If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim . . . If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you... Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it."
Buffett blasted the belief that bonds were a lower risk investment over the long-term. He recommended investors stay in equities due to negative impact from inflation on the purchasing power of fixed income holdings.
"I want to quickly acknowledge that in any upcoming day, week or even year, stocks will be riskier – far riskier – than short-term U.S. bonds. As an investor's investment horizon lengthens, however, a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities becomes progressively less risky than bonds, assuming that the stocks are purchased at a sensible multiple of earnings relative to then-prevailing interest rates," he wrote. "It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons – among them, pension funds, college endowments and savings-minded individuals – to measure their investment 'risk' by their portfolio's ratio of bonds to stocks. Often, high-grade bonds in an investment portfolio increase its risk."
Peter Lynch: You don't need a lot in your lifetime. You only need a few good stocks in your lifetime. I mean how many times do you need a stock to go up ten-fold to make a lot of money? Not a lot.
I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks, some will do mediocre, some will do okay, and if one of two of 'em go up big time, you produce a fabulous result. And I think that's the promise to some people. Some stocks go up 20-30 percent and they get rid of it and they hold onto the dogs. And it's sort of like watering the weeds and cutting out the flowers. You want to let the winners run. When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one winner, you basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need. (CW8888: That few fun ones; just hoot and hoot. Rounds after rounds until game over! Pillow stocks!) ---------------------- CW8888: Chun bo? Uncle8888 is lousy stock picker! Total stock pick : 56 No of losers : 26 or 46% His success rate for positive stock pick is just over 50%! In long-term investing; it is all about 3Ms - Method, Mind and Money Management! and yet Uncle8888 over heard in the investing forums, chat rooms or Facebook so many retails keep on debating on the best or right Method.
This small boy came up alone to enjoy his double decker bus ride. Hmm ... nowadays Uncle8888 is also behaving like this small boy whenever he takes double decker; he will take the front seat when they are not occupied. No hurry and nothing much to think or worry about. Just enjoy the full screen ahead!
SembCorp Ind cuts its final dividend from last year $0.04 to $0.02. Total dividend = $0.05 Over the last 17 years as Dividend "Warrior" or "Lover" or "Patient"??? The lowest dividend yield on investment cost is still at the time of purchase through out the past economics and market cycles. Kep Corp (2001/2002) : 11.4% SemCorp Ind: (2002) : 6.1% DBS: (2003) : 3.5% Uncle8888 believes in himself that is BOTH market timing and time in the market are NOT mutually exclusive and are indeed important as long wrong term retail investor. Always look at dividend yield and dividend payout ratio as a pair!
This afternoon; Uncle8888 has kopi session with one new Starfish who wanted to restart her investing journey at the next Bear market and wanted to hear directly from Uncle8888's mouth on surviving market cycles and of course with paper and pen. Here is the real investing lesson on market cycle for newbies! Starfish started trading (investing) in 2015 and winning easy money and progressed into contra trading and winning easy money all way to 2007. More or less like Uncle8888. LOL!
Doesn't matter DCA or VCA or simple average down. Don't try it on single stock! If your single stock price doesn't hit the bottom and does price reversal on up trend; you are going to collect dozens of Panadols to ease your heartache over the next decade or more just to break even. You may still like to call it wrong long-term investing!
Real Positioning Simple average down in 2014 @ $9.67 which is 20% lower than $12.14 @ 2007. The difference in taking doses of Panadol in 2007 position is 7 years more. The one in 2007 has already break even while other one in 2014 which is 20% cheaper is still sitting on paper loss. The Moral of Story ... When you bought any dividend stock; it has already being decided whether you will be taking Panadols or receiving passive income. You either pom pi pi or sibei sainz! LOL!
CW8888: Look like the fight in Singapore is between Grab and Comfortdelgro. Did Comfortdelgro got screwed by Uber? Uber is preparing to sell its Southeast Asia business to Singapore's Grab in exchange for a sizable stake in the company, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter. No deal has been reached yet, and the timing of any such deal is uncertain. Grab provides private car, motorbike, taxi and carpooling services in more than 100 cities across Southeast Asia. The company claimed to have 95 percent market share in taxi ride-hailing when it announced plans to raise more than $2.5 billion from SoftBank and other investors in 2017. The move would mimic Uber's strategy in China, where the company sold its ride-hailing operation to Didi for 20 percent ownership, and Russia, where the company merged its local business with Yandex's ride-hailing business for a 37 percent stake. The objective would be to help Uber reel in its costs in preparation for an IPO as soon as next year, said the sources, who asked not to be named because the discussions are confidential. Since taking over for co-founder Travis Kalanick in August, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has focused on cleaning up the company's battered reputation and instilling financial discipline to push toward profitability. Uber's loss surged 61 percent in 2017 to $4.5 billion, according to numbers released this week, though its loss in the fourth quarter narrowed from the prior period. A tie-up with Grab would also play into SoftBank's efforts to exert greater control over the global ride-sharing market. In January, the Japanese tech conglomerate bought about a 15 percent stake in Uber, mostly buying shares from existing investors. SoftBank also owns shares in Grab, Didi, India's Ola and Brazil's 99, and has publicly expressed interest in Lyft, Uber's main U.S. rival. At the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference in San Francisco this week, Khosrowshahi said that competing against local players is very hard. "I think the team ran through an inventory of where we competed, and if we compete on let's say even on a dollar-for-dollar basis against the local player, paying the same amount to drivers, collecting the same amount from riders, in general where we are now is, if both players are kind of spending equally we tend to win share. We've got a better brand, we've got better technology, better network, etc. Whatever it is, we tend to win share. There's certain markets, China and Russia, where that wasn't true. And if your only competitive advantage, or the only reason you can be in a market is because you can spend money, that's not exactly a reasonable proposition." Reuters reported in November, citing industry sources, that a SoftBank investment in Uber would make it possible for the company to consolidate some of its ride-hailing assets across Asia. An Uber investor told Reuters that shutting its Southeast Asia unit would allow the company to "print money" and make an IPO more realistic.
You can call it index investing or passive or outsourcing. When you outsource the task; you don't feel the heat, dirt or the heavy lifting; but you got to pay some fee. Worth paying this fee to managers or pay ourselves when we get our own hand dirty in the market? Can we DIY mini subset of STI ETF as blue chips uncles or aunties?
Updated in response to Singapore Man of Leisure17 February 2018 at 13:45:00 GMT+8 CW, You sneaky, sneaky ;) Your example is a good test on whether one can read "numbers"; especially if readers call themselves "fundamental investors". 1) Right off the bat, someone who invested in unit trusts or ETFs (and know what they are buying into) would know your percentages were off. Where got management fees 8.9% one!!!??? Management fees are usually charged as a % of AUM (asset under management) - usually in the 1-2% range ;) Most people who "invest" in unit trusts and ETFs are in it for the capital gains. 2) On the other hand, your example is great for those who "invests" in unit trusts and ETFs for income. Yup, its like buying a rental property but you too lazy to deal with the tenants. So you hired a property firm to handle the tenants for you - no free lunch - at 8.9% commission of your rentals ;) Ar ber then? Passive what? LOL! From the number below; how many retail investors are trading their STI ETF shares for capital gains?
Read? Randomness, Chance, Luck And Co-incidence??? (4) Is this a small world or what? The window of opportunity to bump against someone is just 10 to 20 seconds! This morning; while Uncle8888 was heading to tap out of security gate in the lift lobby; someone was seen stopping him and called him. He looked familiar; but Uncle8888's old brain cells was trying hard to recall who? Another Starfish! :-) Let see on records how many will happen in the future. Are randomness, chance, luck and co-incidence co-related to the Law of Large Number? Uncle8888 tends to believe so! If that is true; it will be like investing. Randomness in the stock market and how we should seize that very short window of opportunities to accumulate high single or double digits yield and multi-bagger stocks.
Read? The Power of Saving Read? Do you have $30K? If he doesn't have that financial discipline or resources to meet that saving goal of $30K. How to learn investing from Uncle8888? Never mind! He can still look for that few local bloggers who say you can early start to invest with $10,000. Go, go and learn from them!
Those Hero stocks of 2009 - 2011 that helped to recover from 2007 to 2009 draw-down of - 53% Top two past heroes are dead! Noble (Wrote off) Olam (All sold) Kep Corp (Top 1 holding) Semb Corp (Top 2 holding) Semb Marine(All sold) Hyflux (Wrote off) Biosensors(Taken Private) CPL (Reduce to minor holding)
Heroes will come and go! So next Bear; new heroes will emerge to save Uncle8888! He will have to look out for them!
Can we define crash as bear market i.e. technically STI drops 20% from its recent high? Every time when Uncle8888 read investment writers brushing off market timing. Uncle8888 smiles! :-) Of course; you can say this may be you haven't start practicing RIGHT at top of the market and then the market started to crash over time! Unlucky? Uncle8888 started practicing from Jan 2000 and what happened then ... 3 Jan 2000 to 24 Sep 2001 : -53% (This will require more than 100% rise to break even) 24 Sep 2001 to 05 Mar 2002 : +54% 05 Mar 2002 to 11 Mar 2003 : -35% (Crashed again!) Not scare meh? Still don't believe in market timing meh?
Read? On why sound investing principles will always work??? Real People. Real Story on DBS! This ex-colleague who was some time also Uncle8888's lunch kaki. During GFC 2008/2009; he was very keen to invest bigger on DBS; but in Mar 2009 he was still waiting for DBS to reach $6 before accumulating slowly! When the market recovered he regretted big time; but; he did learn important lesson on investing! This time in Jan 2016; when DBS went below $15; he started to accumulate slowly using his CPF fund as he has already reached 55 (Feeling rich with his bigger War Chest? How often can we beat CPF OA 2.5% with blue chip yield?) In Investing; Your Account Size Really Matters! - CW8888
When DBS has crossed $19; he began to divest slowly. Uncle8888 last heard that he has fully divested all his DBS. ------------------------------------------- Now; he sianz! Real life example of retail investing. It is never easy! Who can analyze that DBS drastically raises its dividend from past year of 66 cts to $1.20 from 2018 onwards! Institutions invest along with their rules and policies; but for retails it is all in their Mind and Heart! Less Analyzing. More Investing - CW8888 Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (5)
Read? What did I share with a guy called Noobz on our first meeting? We don't have to learn or re-learn on how to retain losers till zero-baggers! This is already naturally in us as retail investors. Recently; Uncle8888 happened to chat with one very senior uncle in his 70s during drinking free coffee and reading Business Times when he asked him : "You retired? You invest?". Later, he said he gave up investing as he has lost too much. Few of his stock holding were consolidated and will never recover his losses! The moral of the story : Once your stocks have been consolidated; it is extremely difficult to recover your paper losses! Why retail investing is so difficult? Selling! The Art of Selling and at the same time The Art of Holding as well for cash flow! This is CONTRADICTING Art! Paper gains are NOT real; but dividends are real and NOT ALL type of dividends are for you to spend. Beware of some types of dividends that are put temporary in your hand; and after sometime you may have to return some past years dividends which you have received. Read? When a Giant Gain Causes Pain (4)
Terribly NOT easy! Touchstones, Pillow stocks, really high yield, dividend payout ratio, retained earning and growth dividend story line! Simple FATA may be even more helpful over market cycles. No need for fanciful stuff! Know them well! Read? You Know Company's Balance Sheet In Its Simplest Form???
See Jesse Livermore's single largest regret for paying enough attention to his own money managment rules. So don't poke at Uncle8888's rotting cash as he is paying attention to rules up to two decimal places.
But slower household income growth, especially for the bottom 50 per cent of households, raise some concerns, economists say.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-s-household-income-grew-in-2017-income-inequality-9939710
SINGAPORE: Resident households saw earnings from work increase in 2017, while income inequality in Singapore held near the lowest level in a decade, according to official data released on Thursday (Feb 8).
Among households headed by a Singapore citizen or permanent resident which had at least one working person, the median monthly income grew 2 per cent in nominal terms to S$9,023 last year, from S$8,846 in 2016.
Factoring in inflation, the increase was 1.5 per cent in real terms, the Key Household Income Trends report from the Singapore Department of Statistics showed.
After accounting for household size, the median monthly income per household member rose 4.5 per cent in nominal terms, or 3.9 per cent in real terms, to S$2,699 in 2017.
The annual report also noted that households across all income groups enjoyed real growth in average work earnings per member last year.
Households in the 51st to 90th percentile income group saw the quickest growth rates, with income from work for each family member rising 3.7 to 4.5 per cent after taking into account inflation.
That income grew by 2.6 per cent in real terms for households in the top 10 per cent, while the lowest-earning households in the bottom 50 per cent recorded real income growth of 2.1 to 3.6 per cent.
For 2017, Singapore’s Gini coefficient – a measure of income inequality from 0 to 1, with 0 representing total income equality – held near 2016 levels.
It stood at 0.459 before taking into account Government transfers and taxes – little changed from 2016’s 0.458 and remained among the lowest in a decade.
After including Government transfers and taxes, the Gini coefficient for 2017 was reduced to 0.401, unchanged from the year before.
Families staying in one-room and two-room HDB flats received more government transfers than those in other housing types, the report showed.
On average, resident households in one-room and two-room HDB flats received S$10,245 per household member from various Government schemes last year. This was more than double the average of S$4,433 received per household member across all housing types.
However, experts that Channel NewsAsia spoke to noted some areas of concern within the annual report.
For one, the increase in the median monthly household income was the slowest since 2009 when households registered a decrease in earnings from work. Then, the median monthly household income fell 1.5 per cent in nominal terms and 2.4 per cent in real terms.
The slowdown in income growth rate came despite a pick-up in Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) over the course of 2017, propelled by a stellar run in the manufacturing sector.
Maybank economist Chua Hak Bin said this boils down to the “weak and slow” recovery in the job market, which is still playing catch-up with the brighter prospects in the broader economy.
Nomura economist Brian Tan agreed, noting that the boost in GDP growth last year was levered on certain segments, namely the semiconductor sector, with limited spill-over effects on the rest of the economy.
“The labour market, and in turn wage growth, has not experienced as good a year as the headline GDP number suggested,” he told Channel NewsAsia. “Bearing in mind how weak the labour market was, it is not surprising that it has translated into a slowdown in the household incomes.”
Moving forward, overall job prospects will likely improve amid a broadening economic recovery, but wage growth in 2018 could be muted.
“The fourth quarter’s unemployment rate seems to be coming down further, which gives you some hope that the labour market is recovering,” said Mr Tan. “There is a possibility in wage growth going up but the rate of improvement won’t be as large as we hope.”
Meanwhile, the slower pace of income growth for the bottom 50 per cent households hinted at a “widening” gap between the poor and the rich, said Mr Leonard Lim from the Institute of Policy Studies.
“It is a point of concern because it shows that the income gap is widening between certain groups – the bottom half versus the 50th to 90th percentile – and it shows the increasing importance of the role of Government transfers to mitigate this,” the research associate added, referring to how the Gini coefficient in 2017 remained unchanged from the year before after including Government transfers.
In the longer run, more efforts should be directed to up-skilling and retraining low-wage workers for them to move on to higher-paying jobs, said Dr Chua.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-s-household-income-grew-in-2017-income-inequality-9939710
For the fourth quarter, net profit reached a new quarterly record of SGD 1.22 billion, up 33% from a year ago. Total income rose 10% to SGD 3.06 billion, staying above the SGD 3 billion mark for the second consecutive quarter, as net interest income rose 15% to cross the SGD 2 billion mark for the first time. Total allowances halved. The recent finalisation of Basel capital reforms has provided clarity on future regulatory requirements. They have a benign impact on DBS, enabling its capital requirements to be rationalised. In view of this, the Board suspended the scrip dividend with immediate effect. It also determined that ordinary dividends can be sustained at higher levels and affirmed the policy of increasing them over time in line with earnings growth. For the final dividend of 2017, it proposed a payout of 60 cents per share, which will bring the full-year ordinary dividend to 93 cents per share, an increase of 55% over the previous year. In addition, it proposed a special dividend of 50 cents per share as a one-time return of the capital buffers that had been built up and to mark the fiftieth anniversary of DBS. CW8888: $0.93 full year dividend. Shiok for blue chip like bank! 1. Average yield over 15 years for this freehold blue chip is about 9%. Comparable to 90% dividend payout S-REIT! 2. ROC on dividends only is 135% or 2 bagger in the pocket!
Createwealth8888 till today can still remember clearly when two very experienced cyber investing kakis in the stock market who believed in their favourite and trusted Guru's view in Mar 2009 were congratulating themselves for staying very cash rich in Mar 2009. One was 90% cash and the other 100% cash!!!
The Dow also broke below 25,000 and dipped into correction territory. The S&P 500 closed down more than 7 percent from a record set last month. "This sell-off, in the bigger scheme of things, is not that big. But it is very important in psychological terms," says one strategist. CW8888: Today will be interesting day for newbies!
Read? Grand old investor and gambler??? (Refresh) Gambling in the market on stocks, Forex, Gold and Crude oil, and Bitcoin. LOL! If grand old man knows about Bitcoin. How many SG bloggers have sold and made tons of money from their bitcoins to become millionaires? Remember those days of many millionaires employees before dotcom bubble burst!
Like it or not. Uncle8888 is quite sure that over your lifetime; your human asset will return the best ROC. Whatever you earned from human asset is always POSITIVE and for you to keep forever and ever. You don't have to return them unless you have obtained them illegally e.g. corruption! LOL!
But; your investment return over future market cycles MAY be negative and whatever you have now in your investment portfolio may NOT be for you to keep forever and ever until you decided to quit investing! Investment return over market cycles can unexpectedly be RETURNED to Mr. Market. Young ones should focus on your best ROC i.e. your job! in the first half of working life and by 40s you should be able to know your job progression destiny and then shift all your energy to investing. By that time if you are already a good saver; you should have sizeable capital to make real impact in wealth building for retirement. In investing; your account size really matters! - CW8888
Interesting to see how STI is responding to this rare drop on Monday? CNBC: The last time the Dow Jones industrial average posted a drop of more than 600 points was June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit vote. Before Friday, the Dow has only closed more than 600 points lower eight times in history, with all occurrences taking place in the last 18 years. To be sure, as the Dow has soared over its nearly 122-year history, point drops increasingly represent a smaller percentage change. Evelyn Cheng| @chengevelyn Published 14 Hours Ago Updated 13 Hours Ago
Read? Bitcoin is not an investment we would advise, UBS chairman says The decline followed reports that raised worries about increased regulation in India and potential price manipulation at a major exchange. Fundstrat's Tom Lee, the only major Wall Street strategist to issue formal price targets on bitcoin, said two weeks ago that $9,000 is a "major low" for bitcoin and "the biggest buying opportunity in 2018." The $9,000 to $10,000 price range has been a difficult one for bitcoin to break below since first topping $10,000 in late November. Evelyn Cheng| @chengevelyn
The more practical and realistic approach is ask yourself this question : How much have you been spending for your annual household expenses and what was the highest ever spent? Next monthly expenses will be higher due to ang pow money to be given out!
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