H1 FY 2011 Performance Report : Down -4.8% from H1 2010

Year Goal Hit Rate

(In 2003, I set some bullish progressive year goals from 2003 to 2011; and 2011 Year Goal is 76.8% of 2010 Total Salary including all CPF contributions. Quite a big goal to achieve!)

Year Goal Hit Rate for 2011 fell by -4.8% from 35.5% in H1 FY 10 to 30.7% in H1 FY 11.

The poor goal hit was due to lack of new trading positions in the quarter and rolling forward the realization of profits to next quarter for Olam and Noble.

Active Investing Performance

Since Nov 08 after I have given up active contra trading and revised my active investing/trading strategies.

Performance indicators are as follows:

Current CAGR is 16.8% as on 30 Jun 2011 market closing price over 2.61 years since Nov 2008

But at one stage in this quarter, CAGR has dropped to a new low at 16.3%

Historical ROC per Trade Distribution

54% of the total completed trades are in range of 6-10% ROC and the next 13% in the range of 11-15% ROC.

I will need to improve the % share in the ROC Pie in the second segment i.e. 11-15% ROC per trade.

STI

Straits Times 3,120.44 +40.70 +1.32%

DOW - higher for a third-consecutive

Dow 12,261.42 +72.73 +0.60%

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

Stocks closed higher for a third-consecutive session Wednesday, led by banks, amid end-of-quarter window dressing and after the Greek parliament approved austerity measures to avoid a debt default.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 72.73 points, or 0.60 percent, to close at 12,261.42. The blue-chip index dipped into negative territory at the beginning of the session.

The S&P 500 rose 10.74 points, or 0.83 percent, to end at 1,307.41.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 11.18 points, or 0.41 percent, to finish at 2,740.49.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, tumbled 10 percent to end near 17.

The Dow and Nasdaq are on track for their best weekly gains in three months, while the S&P is on pace for its biggest one-week gain since Nov. 2010. However, all three major indices are still on pace for their biggest monthly loss since last August.

Volume was still on the lighter side with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 3.37 billion shares, while 892 million shares changed hands on the floor.

Greece's parliament approved a five-year austerity plan with 155 votes in favor and 138 votes against. It must now win approval on Thursday for legislation detailing specific implementation measures for the 28 billion austerity package.

If the second vote passes, release of the loan tranche could be approved by finance ministers on Sunday. The euro gained against the dollar.

Noble - Possible breakout?

DBS applies to tap $30b currency swap with China

By JASMINE NG


DBS Bank announced on Wednesday that it has applied to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tap the bilateral currency swap agreement established between the central banks of Singapore and China.

Under an agreement signed in July last year, the MAS and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) had established a S$30 billion bilateral currency swap arrangement to promote bilateral trade and direct investments between the two countries.

By tapping the swap line facility, DBS is able to provide customers with the option of settling their trades in yuan, instead of in more conventional US$ terms.

'The swap facility presents interesting opportunities to the market, providing an alternative source of RMB funding outside China, which will boost two-way trade flows and investments between Singapore and China,' manager of DBS Singapore, Sim S. Lim said.

Keppel clinches Brazilian shipbuilding contracts worth S$140 million

KSM Brasil draws flow of new orders ahead of its anticipated opening in 1Q2012.


Keppel Singmarine Brasil (KSM Brasil), Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M)'s new 7.6-ha shipbuilding facility in the state of Santa Catarina, has secured two newbuild contracts worth about S$140 million from fleet operators in Brazil.

The first contract entails building a series of six 45-tonne bollard pull twin-screw Azimuth Stern Drive (ASD) harbour tugboats, for REBRAS - Rebocadores do Brasil S.A. (SMIT Rebras).

In the second contract, the yard will construct a large-sized 4500dwt Platform Supply Vessel (PSV) based on its proprietary MTD 9045P-DE design for Keppel O&M's Brazilian ship-owning arm, Guanabara Navegacao Ltda (GNL).This is the first vessel constructed under the business model to build Offshore Support Vessels in anticipation of demand in Brazil, and such vessels will be offered for bare-boat charter or sale upon completion.

KSM Brasil specialises in constructing Offshore Support Vessels such as Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessels, PSVs, Oil Recovery Support Vessels and harbour/terminal tugboats.

The new facility in Brazil is also able to fabricate offshore steel structures and support major projects undertaken by Keppel's BrasFELS yard in Angra dos Reis.

Mr Hoe Eng Hock, Executive Director of KSM Brasil shared, "Petrobras will need over 100 Brazilian-built offshore support vessels by 2020, to facilitate the exploration and development of the Santos Basin's deep water pre-salt fields. We see a growing market for purpose-built support vessels that can operate safely and efficiently offshore Brazil.

"Keppel Singmarine has been building harbour tugs for the global fleet of Smit in Singapore and China Nantong for the past 20 years. With the award of six harbour tugs contract, the relationship and partnership between Smit and Keppel has deepened and expanded to the new frontier in Brazil."

KSM Brasil's scope for the six tugboats includes detailed design and engineering work and the purchase of all equipment. The first tugboat will be delivered in 4Q2012, followed by the remaining five at three-month intervals. These Robert Allan-designed tugboats will be deployed by SMIT Rebras to work at key ports across Brazil.

Meanwhile, GNL's 4500 dwt PSV is slated for completion in 2013. The PSV is custom-designed by Keppel's Marine Technology Development unit to meet the stringent requirements of Petrobras. The unique arrangement of the PSV's internal tanks and systems enable it to transport a wide combination of oil-based and water-based bulk cargoes for offshore exploration and production.

This ABS Classed PSV spans 94.2m long and 19.8m wide. It features a large deadweight capacity in excess of 4,500 tonne and a deck space of 1000sqm which can accommodate 26 crew members. Equipped with a diesel-electric propulsion system and dynamic positioning (DP) 2 capability, this PSV is well suited to operate in different offshore conditions.

The above contracts are not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

STI

Straits Times 3,079.74 +28.95 +0.95%

Spotting Olam's Bull rally 6 days before it happens

Just For Laugh ....

From time to time, I will receive email from School Of Kung Fu Charting e.g.

See Uncle8888's Simple Charting on Olam

School of Kung Fu will charge you $2-$3K+ for you to learn how to spot it.

Here, you see it at near real time for FREE.

In Investing - difference between committed and involved

Read? Bacon and eggs - difference between committed and involved

SMOL asked:

Can you see the difference between being committed and involved?

The pig is committed, while the hen is involved.

Do you see parallels between the above story and you?


1) Your relationship?
2) Your business partner?
3) Your work place?
4) Your investing/trading journey?

In investing, how many retail investors are involved with their investing by getting their hands dirty and sometime bloody. Often, most retail investors forget that in the stock market there is no place for newbies and amateurs. Once you are in the market, you are expected to play like a pro.

I observe that even young retail investors in their 20s and 30s are likely to be involved rather than committed to their investing as they seen to have soft investing goals like receiving dividends and fighting inflation.

In your investing journey, you must get involved by getting your hands dirty and get committed to your harder long-term investing goals. But, at first, you may want to be more realistic by setting flat goals for the initial years and setting progressive goals over the later years.

So Get Involved and Get Committed too!

DOW - Are Bulls dressing up the H1 window?

Dow 12,188.69 +145.13 +1.21%

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

Stocks finished more than 1 percent higher across the board Tuesday, extending the previous day's rally, amid optimism over a solution for Greece's debt crisis and ahead of the quarter's end.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 145.13 points, or 1.21 percent, to finish at 12,188.69, marking another triple-digit gain to log its best day in over two months.

The S&P 500 advanced 16.57 points, or 1.29 percent, to close at 1,296.67. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 41.03 points, or 1.53 percent, to end at 2,729.31.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, slipped near 19.

Among key S&P 500 sectors, energy and consumer discretionary were the top gainers.

However, volume was on the lighter side with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 3.19 billion shares, while 804 million shares changed hands on the floor.


RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 04:24:18 28 Jun 2011
LinksList Documentid: 43560626
Markets: What Charts Say BofA Is 'Massively Undervalued'2 Restaurants Stocks to OwnRotation into Stocks to Drive S&P?
Despite the day's gains, some strategists still remain skeptical that the correction has come to an end.

"I'd like to see another 2-percent move in the Nasdaq and S&P and then I'll be more inclined to be a buyer on the strength," Matthew Cheslock, senior specialist of Cohen Capital Group told CNBC. "Right now, you can sell into this rally as you should be prone to do when there is buying."

Greek lawmakers are expected to vote Wednesday and Thursday on the austerity measures, which must be passed in order to receive the next payment of its bailout.

If the government does not get the next tranche, analysts said Greece could default on its debt, possibly sparking a Europe-wide crisis and potential credit market freeze.

Meanwhile, demonstrators gathered in central Athens at the start of a 48-hour strike to protest the vote.

Legg Mason’s Miller Sells Kodak Stake

Createwealth8888:

Another great investor lost money.

------------------------------------------------

Bill Miller, who estimated a decade ago that Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) was worth about $100 a share, sold his flagship fund’s stake in the imaging company for a lot less.


Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust (LMVTX), run by Miller since 1982, disclosed in a semi-annual report last week that the fund sold 18.2 million Kodak shares late last year and during this year’s first quarter for about $3.89 each on average. The fund realized a $551 million loss through the divestiture, according to the report.

Miller, 61, began loading up on Kodak shares in 2000 and, by the end of 2005, his firm owned as much as 25 percent of the Rochester, New York, company. Value Trust, one of several Legg Mason funds and accounts to hold Kodak stock, kept the bulk of its stake for more than a decade, only to sell after the film company had lost more than 90 percent of its market value.

“Part of it was just this mentality that this was just a temporary setback and Kodak would be able to get quickly back on track,” said Bridget Hughes, an analyst at Morningstar Inc., a Chicago-based stock and fund research firm. “It was not only a mistake, it was also causing a lot of client angst.”

The $3.4 billion Value Trust has declined about 2.3 percent this year, a performance that ranks it behind 94 percent of rival funds that follow a similar strategy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Miller and his colleague Sam Peters are plowing more of the fund’s assets into companies with large market capitalizations.

Large Cap Investor

Miller gained fame for beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for a record 15 straight years through 2005, only to trail the U.S. benchmark during the next three years as he invested in beaten down banks and homebuilders. Miller outperformed peers in 2009 as the stock market rebounded.

During the six months ended April 30, Value Trust invested in Apple Inc. (AAPL), Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and Chevron Corp., according to the semi-annual report filed last week with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. At the same time, the fund has been selling or reducing its holdings in companies with smaller market values, including Amgen Inc., AES Corp. and Kodak.

As a result, the average market value of companies held by the fund rose about $30 billion during the six months ended April 30 to $94 billion, the SEC filing shows. The moves also left the Value Trust holding stocks with a lower price-to- earnings ratio, about 9.9 times estimated earnings for 2012, the filing said.

“They do see the best value in large cap and Kodak’s market cap was inconsistent with that,” Mary Athridge, a Legg Mason spokeswoman, said in an e-mail response to questions.

The Legg Mason Opportunity Trust, a smaller fund managed by Miller, continued to hold 17.8 million Kodak shares as of March 31, according to regulatory data compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Building a Company’

“Both the board and long term investors understand we are building a new company and they know that this isn’t accomplished overnight,” said Gerard Meuchner, a Kodak spokesman, adding that Legg Mason remains one of the company’s largest shareholders. “They also believe our strategy will deliver sustainable profitable growth.”

Now valued at $923 million, Kodak was once much bigger, ranking as the third-largest company in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in June 1974 with a market capitalization of $17 billion, said Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at New York-based S&P. After reaching a peak of $26.7 billion at the end of 1996, the company’s market value began shrinking, and in December Kodak was removed from the S&P 500 along with the New York Times Co., he said.

“It was a commentary to some degree on the newspaper and film industries,” Silverblatt said in an interview. “That was more of a macro change, looking at the way the economy has shifted.”

Loyal Shareholder

Miller, the chief investment officer at Legg Mason Capital Management Inc., began buying Kodak shares for Value Trust during the second quarter of 2000. In a shareholder report for the period, Miller said that concerns about the impact of digital photography on the company’s film business were tempered by continued growth in conventional camera sales and picture taking.

“We think Kodak, currently selling around $56, is worth close to $100,” Miller said in the report, adding that he expected the company to generate free cash equal to almost half of its market capitalization over the next five years.

By the end of 2005, Legg Mason funds and accounts owned a combined 24.9 percent stake comprised of 71.5 million Kodak shares, according to the film company’s annual proxy statement. That included 23 million shares held by Value Trust.

Share Price Decline

Kodak shares closed at $3.43 yesterday, down from $66.25 at the end of 1999. Revenue totaled $7.19 billion last year, down from $14.3 billion in 2005, according to Bloomberg data.

The company is now competing with Hewlett-Packard Co. in providing digital printing technology to consumers and commercial enterprises, according to Mark Kaufman, an analyst at Rafferty Capital Markets Inc. in New York. Kaufman rates Kodak shares a buy, citing the prospects for the new digital printers as well as the company’s ability to continue churning out money, even at reduced revenue levels.

“Their old film business, which everyone abhors and denigrates, has been generating cash over the years consistently,” Kaufman said in an interview. “The other big cash generator has been their licensing fees from their patent portfolio.”

COMPLETION OF REDEMPTION OF US$700,000,000 6.625% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2015

Noble Group Limited wishes to announce that, pursuant to the terms of the indenture dated 17 March 2005 in respect of the US$700,000,000 6.625% Senior Notes due 2015 (“Notes”) and its exercise of the optional redemption provisions therein, it has completed the redemption of all of the outstanding Notes on 28 June 2011.


“The redemption of these Notes reiterates our focus on and proactive management of our capital structure.” said Robert van der Zalm, CFO of Noble Group.

Before the above redemption, there was US$191,859,000 aggregate principal amount of the Notes outstanding. The total interest cost saving for Noble Group resulting from the early redemption of the Notes is estimated to be around US$17.6 million.

STI - No energy

Straits Times 3,050.79 +2.51 +0.08%

DOW - Back above 12,000 again!

Dow 12,043.56 +108.98 +0.91%

Market Update

4:30 pm : Broad-based buying in thin volume helped stocks score strong gains this session. The action precedes a pivotal vote by Greece's parliament tomorrow.

There weren't many headlines to act as cues for traders this morning. Participants even dismissed the day's only data, which featured news that personal income for May increased by 0.3%, but spending was flat. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a 0.4% increase in income and a 0.1% increase in spending. However, core personal consumption expenditures for the month increased by 0.3%, which is greater than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly anticipated.

After hovering near the neutral line for the first few minutes of trade, stocks began to stage a strong climb. Financials led the early effort with a quick sprint up to a gain of more than 1%. The sector spent the rest of the session sporting that gain.

Tech stocks eventually rallied to replace financials as the top performing sector. Tech, which is also the largest sector by market weight, settled with a 1.4% gain. Tech's strength helped give the Nasdaq an added lift.

Gains weren't limited to cyclical plays, though. Instead, all 10 major sectors ended the day in positive territory. Half of them had gains of nearly 1% or more.

The breadth and size of the move was partly made possible by the lack of share volume, which gave each trade greater relative weight than it would have had during a day of even average share volume. At just 835 million shares on the NYSE, total volume today was among the lightest of the year. Such paltry participation will likely persist ahead of the long, holiday weekend (U.S. markets will be closed next Monday for the observance of Independence Day).

Even though vacation plans are expected to pull many off of their trading in coming days, plenty of attention will be paid to Greece's progress in putting its fiscal house in order. Another step comes tomorrow, when the country's parliament votes on whether or not to accept the austerity plan that country officials agreed upon last week with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Biosensors eyes stent markets in China, Japan

SINGAPORE - The Chinese market for drug-eluting stents, used to treat blocked arteries, is estimated to be worth more than US$1 billion by 2014, and Singapore's Biosensors International aims to increase its current 27-30 per cent share as a rival firm exits the sector, its chairman said.

Biosensors is also eyeing a 20 per cent market share in Japan by May 2012 through its licensee Terumo Corp, which makes the Nobori stent using the Singapore company's technology in exchange for royalty payments.

US$500-600 million is more or less what I see is the market that is being served in China (currently),' Biosensors chairman Yoh-Chie Lu told Reuters. 'In terms of number of cases or procedures, according to the estimates, by 2014 it would be double.'

Drug-eluting stents (DES) have a medicated coating to help prevent the reclogging of arteries after the stents are inserted in angioplasty procedures.

According to the World Health Organisation, an estimated 17 million people die of cardiovascular diseases, particularly heart attacks and strokes, every year.

Mr Lu said that the Chinese DES market will grow in coming years because of the government's healthcare initiative, which reimburses stent treatments, as well as by the ageing population.

Biosensors announced earlier this month it plans to buy the remaining 50 per cent stake in Chinese stent maker JW Medical Systems (JWMS) from Hong Kong-listed Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer for S$625.4 million (US$506.8 million).

Biosensors is estimated to have a 27-30 per cent share of the overall DES market in China through JWMS and this could increase following the withdrawal of competitor Johnson & Johnson from the DES business, Mr Lu said.

'With Johnson & Johnson pulling out, it's for us to grab.

Just like everybody in the market, we have the ability to replace their business with ours,' he said. However, he declined to disclose Biosensors' market share target in China.

J&J announced earlier this month it will stop selling drug-eluting stents, a former profit driver for the diversified healthcare company that has stumbled due to safety concerns and fierce competition from rival products.

Nomura wrote in a report that Biosensors could gain market share from J&J's pullout and it could also benefit from hiring the sales and technical staff affected. The brokerage has a buy call and S$1.50 target price on Biosensors.

In China, Biosensors competes through JWMS with local players such as MicroPort Scientific and Lepu Medical, as well as foreign companies like Boston Scientific and Medtronic.

In Japan, analysts noted that the market share of Nobori - the first locally-made DES by a Japanese medical technology firm following the approval by authorities - could be significant given Japanese physicians' loyalty to local companies.

'Our licensee Terumo has never sold DES into the Japanese market until now, after the approval. In the first 12 months from May this year, they expect to get around 20 per cent share of the DES market by volumes in Japan,' Mr Lu said.

He added that Biosensors is open in the next 3-5 years to acquiring companies with technologies that are complementary to the DES business, as well as a strong distribution network in global markets, particularly Asia and Latin America. -- REUTERS

Straits Times 3,048.28 -18.57 -0.61%

In investing/trading, lessons will be learnt from your most painful losses.

Just For Thinking ...

In investing/trading, can you really remember and learn from your small losses here and there. I don't think so. These small losses may annoy or disturb you for a little while; but it will never hurt you much. You are likely to brush aside these small losses either as overheads or loose changes. You may be back to the same old way again.

It is only through huge losses and painful experience that lessons taught by Mr. Market are learnt and well remembered. Mr. Market likes to charge you costly tuition fee when you take lessons from him.

Who influence you into investing?

invest, me & my money, june 26, 2011 thesunday,

He was influenced by a former colleague who was making huge profits in the stock market.

Read? The truths behind the ideas of making money in the stock market.

Somehow, I was quite re-assured and confident after knowing that these Lao Jiao ex-colleagues have make it big in the stock market. I began to believe that I am the promising Eagle. I can fly!

May be you should open your eyes wide and look around your office. As we spend lots of our precious time in the office and if we can find people in the office who are successful in making money in the stock market. It can be truly influencing and believing as you see them with your own eyes everyday.

They will only share with you unless they can trust you not to back-stab them. LOL!

Noble

Possible H1 window dressing next week to dress up nicely for commodity related funds since commodities related stocks have been beaten so badly in this quarter.

Must break out $1.96 convincing and must not break down 1.85

NB: Recently, I bought some Noble @ $1.85

Following My Superheroes!

Just For Thinking ....

Wow! My Superheroes
 
When I was young, I read a lots of comics on Superheroes. I really love them and sometime I would dream of becoming the next superhero.

Then I was an adult, I have my Online Superheroes

In 200x, practically, I was visiting every investment blogs, cboxes, and forums that I came to know. I was hoping to find my online Superheroes in investing/trading in some of them. I was hoping to learn the magical power from them and also dreaming to become the next Superhero like them.

Some investment bloggers are more transparent, confidence and kind to blog out enough details on their portfolio or trading transactions for us to know how they are doing e.g. by providing stock name, buying and selling price, ROC, Portfolio Value and Returns, and etc so that there is no need for us to guess how they are doing. These were my favourite investment bloggers since I could easily rate them based on their posted results - Good, Average or Bad. The rest of other bloggers I would visit them for leisures like reading online news or newspapers when I was bored. I would take a quick glance but no serious reading since most of them would blog in a way for us to guess that they were doing "well".

Some of my favourite bloggers were doing so well and they became my online superheroes in investing/trading. I visited their blog days and nights. Sometime, I might join in comments or chats to clarify; but most of the times, I was lurking behind reading, taking mental notes and trying to learn from them.

Where are My Few Online Superheroes?

Sadly, after 2009, the Great Evil Bear from Planet Alien came in 2008/09 and killed them ALL They stopped blogging. One of them sadly posted the last article - " I have quited from full time trading and will be looking for a job."

Till now, I am still looking for my new online SuperHeroes. May be they will appear at the next Great Bull.

Bought (Subscribe) for Olam @ $2.56

Since 2008, I have been fighting Olam with only three commandos.

No 2 Commando: $2.52 (Front Line)
No 1 Commando: $1.68 (Guarding Base Camp since Sep 2008)

Past ROC for 8 rounds since Sep 2008: From 5.9% to 20.8% in 3 to 311 holding days.

Round 8: ROC 20.8%, 65 days, B $2.41 S $2.93
Round 7: ROC 15.8%, 311 days, B $2.48 S $2.89
Round 6: ROC 10.2%, 8 days, B $2.39 S $2.65
Round 5: ROC 6.3%, 3 days, B $2.45 S $2.62 (Bought back higher)
Round 4: ROC 5.9%, 15 days, B $2.26 S $2.41
Round 3: ROC 9.6%, 8 days, B $2.18 S $2.40
Round 2: ROC 7.0%, 8 days, B $2.18 S $2.35 (Bought back higher. Wait too long)
Round 1: ROC 9.8%, 161 days, B $1.37 S $1.52

Paulson addresses disastrous Sino-Forest bet

 Createwealth8888:

Read? Understanding Stock Market Risks - Financial Fraud Risk is real! (2)

Even the best investor like John Paulson also kena conned.


--------------------------------------------------------------------
BOSTON - John Paulson told investors on Friday he was 'disappointed' his bet on a Chinese forest company cost them over US$100 million in losses.

After staying mum for weeks on his disastrous bet on Sino-Forest, a forestry company that lost much of its value in the wake of a critical report from a short-seller, Mr Paulson finally broke his silence in a four-page letter. In the letter, he described the fund's initial interest in Sino-Forest and promised to watch the situation.

Mr Paulson's flagship Advantage Fund, the biggest in his US$37 billion empire, has lost 9.7 per cent this month thanks in part to Sino-Forest's crash. The loss turns the Advantage Fund into one of the industry's biggest single losers, with a 15.5 per cent decline for the year, said investors in the fund who were not allowed to discuss performance publicly.

While some longtime Paulson investors said on Friday they were angry with the billionaire manager, accusing him of having gotten too big to react quickly to disappointing market news, Mr Paulson said he was suffering right along with them.

'As the largest investors in the Paulson Advantage strategy, the Paulson partners share your disappointment in this outcome,' the letter said.
AR Magazine first reported the news on Friday.

A week ago, Mr Paulson liquidated his 14.1 per cent stake in Sino-Forest some two weeks after short-seller Carson Block and his Muddy Waters LLC research firm accused Sino-Forest of exaggerating its forest assets.

While some of Mr Paulson's funds are performing poorly, there are also some strong performers. His US$3 billion Recovery Fund is up 4.22 per cent, thanks in part to a winning bet on privately held bank OneWest. -- REUTERS

DOW vs. STI since Jan 2009

Technical Indicators? (4) - Does it really matter in SG stock market?

Borrow the idea from La Papillion


** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."


Read? Fundamental or Technical Analysis? (4)

Read? Technical Indicators? (3)

Read? Who Moves My Market? - Part 2

Read? Proprietary trader fined S$200,000 for manipulating stock market
Not enough? Want more?

Gohsip once commented:  Uncle8888,  you said "if you look at my charts posted with those technical indicators, they are just there to confuse people. LOL." You damn funny la!

If you happened to take a close look at my recent charts posted. I have decided not to be funny and stop confusing people.


Technical Indicators developed for which market?

Most of these common and popular technical indicators are developed by "ang mo" and they are tested and back-tested in the US markets to prove that these indicators are doable and may be reliable under certain market conditions.

But, you have to take note that these indicators are not developed for SG market and have not been proved by the developers that these indicators are still applicable here.

Well, sometime, I am really amused by some people who are trying to apply and test their TA knowledge on low volume stocks and blogging about it convincing. I think this is really a joke!

Especially for newbies to technical analysis, they may tend to trust and believe in some oldies showing off their TA knowledge in the cyber world.

Beware, if you choose to believe that these common and popular technical indicators which are NOT developed for SG stock market are still applicable and can be reliable here; then probably you need lots of money to exercise your brain.

Alternatively, you may be better off in learning to become pilot fishes and American cockroaches. Most likely you may be able to survive over market cycles.

DOW - Are bears back in control?

Dow 11,934.58 -115.42 -0.96%

4:35 pm : The resumption of selling pressure amid rekindled concerns over Europe resulted in another weekly loss for stocks. The market has mustered only one weekly gain, which was actually only an incremental move higher, since April.

News that Greece has agreed to a five-year austerity plan with the EU and IMF has been regarded as a positive, but participants remain mindful of the challenges related to passing the plan in parliament, implementing it, and then upholding it. Failure in any facet would prolong the country's troubles.

Traders were reminded that Greece isn't the only country in the eurozone periphery that is grappling with fiscal and financial problems when rumors surfaced that several Italian banks are undercapitalized. Questions and concerns about the financial future of countries in the eurozone periphery detracted from a pleasing IFO reading from Germany, which is the largest economy in Europe, and generally regarded as the most financially sound.

Domestic data proved pleasing, but the positive response dissipated after the open. To the surprise of many economists, first quarter GDP was revised upward to reflect growth of 1.9%. Durable goods orders for May jumped 1.9% after an upwardly revised 2.7% decline in the prior month, but orders less transportation increased by 0.6% after a 0.4% decline in the prior month. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a 1.8% increase in total orders and a 0.7% increase in orders less transportation

Olam

Quantitative analysis on investment?

Read? How do you measure Opportunity Cost?

Read? The little boy and the dollar notes

The final outcome of every investment decision or investing strategy will have an impact on the performance of our portfolio and measuring it against our investing goals or targets.

We can choose to either use CAGR or IXRR to measure this performance. We may even want to take it one step further by ploting it either as daily or weekly or monthly Line Graph as it is easier to visualise how our portfolio is doing.

Is this quantitative analysis on investment? Anyone?

STI

Straits Times 3,066.85 +22.13 +0.73%

DOW - Still closed above 12,000. Bulls have fought back!

Dow 12,050.00 -59.67 -0.49%

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate


Twitter LinkedInMore Share
Stocks finished off session lows Thursday following a report that Greece has forged a deal with the EU and IMF on an austerity plan, but investors were cautious following a weak jobs news in addition to the Fed's tepid economic remarks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 59.67 points, or 0.49 percent, to end at 12,050, climbing back from 234 points at its session low.


The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 17.56 points, or 0.66 percent, to finish at 2,686.75, rebounding from the day's double-digit loss.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, pared some gains to end above 19.

Greece won consent from a team of EU-IMF inspectors for a five-year austerity plan after committing to an additional round of tax rises and spending cuts, according to a report from Reuters. The Greek Parliament is expected to vote on the austerity plan next week.

"It goes to show with a light volume, how headline-driven this market is," said Sal Arnuk, co-manager of trading at Themis. "Over the next week, we’re going to see headlines finalize and once we get Greece out of the way, focus will be on earnings season."

Volume continued to be light with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 4.24 billion shares, while 1.11 billion shares changed hands on the floor.

Stocks had been sharply lower for most of the session following a handful of negative news:

Oil prices tumbled after the U.S. DOE announced it will release 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the overall International Energy Agency's release of 60 million barrels per day. U.S. light, sweet crude tumbled $4.39 a barrel, or 4.6 percent, to settle at $91.02 a barrel, while London Brent crude fell $6.95, or 6.09 percent, to settle at $107.26.

STI

Straits Times 3,044.72 +1.89 +0.06%

Singapore's May CPI up 4.5% on-year

SINGAPORE: Singapore's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 4.5 per cent on-year in May, on account of higher costs of housing, transport and food - the same figure that was recorded in April.

According to data released Thursday by the Department of Statistics, excluding accommodation costs, the consumer price index rose by 3.3 per cent.

Analysts had expected a moderation in May's inflation to 4.1 per cent, as monetary tightening helped tame inflationary pressures and global commodity prices fell.

But this was not the case as the cost of transport rose 7.5 per cent in May, as a result of higher prices for cars and petrol.

Housing cost rose by 8.1 per cent, as a result of higher accommodation costs and electricity tariffs.

Food prices rose 2.8 per cent, largely due to more expensive prepared meals and ingredients.

The consumer price index in May went up by 0.6 per cent over April this year.

The higher cost of housing was partly offset by the lower costs of transport, "recreation & others" as well as clothing & footwear.

Housing cost increased largely due to higher service & conservancy charges as rebates for service & conservancy charges were given in April but not in May.

The MAS core inflation measure, which excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport, rose 2.1 per cent on-year.

On-month, the MAS core inflation measure declined by a marginal 0.1 per cent.

- CNA/cc

Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? (10)

Read? Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? (9)

Fully paid home may go beyond the Returns of investment dollars and opportunity cost

What is the dollar value of the Mind of Peace and Beloved Gift to your family when you are gone?

The best gifts to leave behind for our family when we are gone are (1) fully paid home (if not, then fully insured mortgage insurance), (2) adequate life insurance coverage and (3) well written Will.

We should aim for ONE THING LESS to worry for them.

So, what is the dollar value of this One Thing less to worry for your family? Anyone?

Cowboys, Farmers, Fishermen, and Hunters.

Just For Laugh ...

The cowboys, farmers, fishermen and hunters were arguing among themselves who is the smartest in making money from the market and who has the right strategy to do it?

Actually, in investing there is only one right answer. The one who makes the most money in the shortest time is the clear winner of all.  How winner did it is the least important of all.

Olam

Noble

DOW

Dow 12,109.67 -80.34 -0.66%

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

Stocks fell in the final hour of trading to close lower Wednesday after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that the pace of the economic recovery is slower than expected, but offered no hint about plans for new stimulus measures.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 80.34 points, or 0.66 percent, to close at 12,109.67. The blue-chip index snapped a four-day winning streak, after trading flat for most of the session.

The S&P 500 slipped 8.38 points, or 0.65 percent, to end at 1,287.14.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 18.07 points, or 0.67 percent, to finish at 2,669.19.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded below 19.

The Federal Reserve said the pace of the recovery was proceeding more slowly than it had expected though it was primarily because of temporary factors. In addition, the Fed's policysetting committee said it will maintain interest rates at exceptionally low levels for "an extended period."

Meanwhile, the FOMC downgraded economic growth forecast by half a percentage point and expects higher unemployment until 2013 in addition to slightly more inflation.

"The reduced pace of the recovery partly reflects factors that are likely to be temporary," Bernanke said during the press conference. "Consequently...the committee expects that the pace of economic recovery will pick up overcoming quarters."

Some experts said traders were disappointed that Bernanke failed to expand on further plans to stimulate the economy, while others noted that it may never happen unless macro data continues to disappoint.

"The only way that [the Fed] could possibly consider QE3 is if the macro data refuses to improve and the market starts to take a real hit—another 15 percent from here," said Kenny Polcari, managing director of ICAP Equtiies. "But if that doesn’t happen and if things just muddle along, then I don’t think there will or should be any QE3."

Volume continued to be light with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 3.2 billion shares, while just 853 million shares changed hands on the floor.

Paulson May Deal Clients $720 Million Loss

Createwealth8888: Even Paulson also lost money!

----------------------------------
John Paulson’s $37 billion hedge fund sold its entire stake in Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE), the Chinese tree-plantation owner accused of overstating timber holdings, dealing investors a potential C$705 million ($720 million) loss.


Paulson & Co., which held 34.7 million shares of Sino- Forest as of April 29, said in a filing yesterday that it had disposed of the stake as of June 17. The New York-based firm’s holding was worth C$815.80 million when it was disclosed. Its value had dropped to C$110.69 million by the end of last week.

The investment is a public misstep for Paulson, 55, who’s betting on an economic recovery after making $15 billion for his backers in 2007 wagering against subprime mortgages. His largest fund lost about 13 percent in the first half of June, bringing declines this year to about 20 percent, as bets on Sino-Forest and U.S. bank stocks soured, two investors said last week.

“Paulson is under the limelight on this investment,” said Steven Persky of Dalton Investments LLC, a Los Angeles-based fund with $1.3 billion in assets. Still, “any money manager is going to have some losing trades, it’s part of life.”

Sino-Forest has slumped 85 percent since June 1, the day before Muddy Waters LLC, an investment firm run by Carson Block that’s betting against the stock, said the forestry company overstated its timber holdings. Sino-Forest has said Block’s statements are false.

Biggest Shareholder

Paulson, the biggest shareholder in Sino-Forest until the selloff, probably reduced losses by paring the stake before the Muddy Waters report. The hedge fund told clients in a June 3 letter that its total investment in Sino-Forest represented about 2 percent of the Advantage and Advantage Plus funds as of June 2. The funds have $18 billion in assets, a person familiar with the firm said at the time. The letter suggests the firm had cut its stake by about 30 percent by June 2, when Sino-Forest shares lost 64 percent.

A spokesman for Paulson declined to comment.

“Due to the uncertainty over Sino-Forest’s public disclosures and financial statements, we have sold our stock and await the results of the independent committee’s investigation,” Paulson said in an e-mailed statement.

Paulson owned Sino-Forest shares since at least March 2008, when the firm reported owning a 10 percent stake in the company, enough to trigger Canadian reporting requirements. By June 2009, Paulson owned 40.7 million Sino-Forest shares, a 19 percent stake, according to filings with regulators.

‘Very Supportive’

Paulson disclosed the sale of his stake less than a week after Sino-Forest Chief Financial Officer David Horsley said in an interview that the hedge-fund manager has been “very supportive, giving us suggestions” on how to deal with Block’s allegations. Sino-Forest shares have lost about C$3.8 billion in value since Block released his report.

Allen Chan, Sino-Forest’s chairman and chief executive officer, has denied the allegations from Muddy Waters. He established an independent committee to investigate and appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP to assist.

April Emspak, an external communications adviser to Sino- Forest, said company executives were not immediately available to comment on Paulson’s sale.

Paulson rebounded from similar losses last year, when the Advantage Plus fund gained as much as 18 percent, depending on the share class, after falling 11 percent in the first eight months.

‘Top Manager’

“Over the past five years Paulson has been considered the top hedge fund manager in the industry,” said Don Steinbrugge, managing partner of Agecroft Partners LLC, a Richmond, Virginia- based firm that advises hedge funds and investors. “This mistake in his portfolio will show he is not infallible, but he will still maintain the reputation of being one of the top players.”

The hedge-fund manager has been betting on an economic recovery by 2012, which is why he’s been bullish on U.S. banking stocks. Citigroup, Paulson’s third-largest stock holding according to a regulatory filing, has declined 19 percent this year, and Bank of America Corp., the firm’s fifth-largest stake, is down 21 percent.

Paulson told investors in a letter in late 2009 that Bank of America may almost double over the next two years. The stock has lost about a third of its value since then.

Poor becomes poorer. Rich becomes richer. Why???

Just For Thinking ....

Why Poor becomes poorer?

Inflation. Just inflation alone is enough to make the Poor becomes poorer.

Why Rich becomes richer?

More investment opportunities. The Rich has lots of money to invest for good returns when rare investment opportunities come.

Proprietary trader fined S$200,000 for manipulating stock market

 Createwealth8888: For obvious reason, I avoid low volume for short-term trading.

 -------------------------------

SINGAPORE: Forty-four-year-old Sim Tee Yang, who was with CIMB GK Securities, was fined S$200,000 for manipulating the stock market.

Sim knew that by trading in both CapitaMall Trust units and warrants, he could influence their prices and make a profit.

He lost some S$8,700 after trading with CapitaMall Trust units between May and August 2005.

But made a gain of more than S$25,000 when he traded with CapitaMall warrants at the same time.

As a result, he made a net profit of almost S$17,000.

Sim, who pleaded guilty to four charges last month, could have been jailed up to seven years, fined a maximum of S$250,000 or both, for each charge.

Eight remaining ones were taken into consideration during sentencing.

Defence counsel Andy Yeo told District Judge Toh Yung Cheong that Sim, who had a clean record, had not set out to undermine or rig the market.

Mr Yeo pleaded for Sim to be fined S$100,000, saying that this was "manifestly adequate".

Deputy Public Prosecutor James Lee, however, asked for a deterrent fine.

He stressed that there was a need to deter "sophisticated market players", like Sim from committing a similar offence.

"The need to protect investors' confidence in the financial market cannot be emphasised more", said DPP Lee.

- CNA/cc

DOW

Dow 12,190.01 +109.63 +0.91%

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

Stocks closed higher Tuesday, with the Nasdaq rebounding into the positive territory for the year, as investors bet that Greece will be able to avoid a default on its debt and ahead of a crucial confidence vote in Athens.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 109.63 points, or 0.91 percent, to finish at 12190.01, led by Caterpillar [CAT 101.39 3.21 (+3.27%) ], Alcoa [AA 15.37 0.59 (+3.99%) ] and DuPont [DD 51.72 1.33 (+2.64%) ].

The S&P 500 rose 17.16 points, or 1.34 percent, to end at 1,295.52. Many strategists are watching 1,360 as the next technical level on the upside for the S&P.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 57.60 points, or 2.19 percent, to close at 2687.26. Today's move marks the biggest outperformance by the Nasdaq versus the Dow and S&P since mid-October 2010.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, tumbled almost 7 percent to trade below 19.

Our short-term charts do indicate that we will see a minor rally unfold over the next few days, which we've been experiencing as of late," Michael McGervey president of McGervey Wealth Management told CNBC. "Our intermediate charts are showing a lot of probability that we will see lower prices over the next couple of weeks with the likelihood of rendering into a lull."

Volume was light with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 3.46 billion shares, while just 851 million shares changed hands on the floor.

Euro zone finance ministers said the Greek government had until July 3 to approve new steps to get the next installment of 110 billion euros. Meanwhile, the market expects a vote of confidence in Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou new cabinet to pass—the first hurdle the government must clear to avert the euro zone's first sovereign debt default. The vote is due around 5 pm ET. The euro gained against the U.S. dollar.

That Friday I went hunting ....

Just For Laugh ....

Last Friday, I went hunting and loaded my gun with three silver bullets. I took aim at three blue elephants.

Two elephants came so near and I fired two silver bullets. I hit the two elephants on their backside and they ran away as fast as they could. 

But, the third elephant didn't come close enough for me to shoot.

Today, some people are curious and ask why didn't you shoot another elephant since you have loaded the bullet in the gun.

Why should I risk the third silver bullet when I already have two big elephants were on hit.  I shall wait to collect the game. Save the silver bullet for the next hunting season. There will always be elephants. Get it?

How do you navigate in the stock market?

Following someone?

1. Following someone

You navigate in the stock market by listening to stock analysts and brokers; or you follow your favourite investment bloggers; or you follow the loudest and the most convincing chatters in cboxes or forums; or you follow the flavour of the day in cboxes or forums.

GPS Navigator

2. GPS Navigator

You swear that you have found the best GPS Navigator in technical analysis; but there are two ways to use it. 

You trust 100% the accuracy of its signal. When the GPS Navigator says Right you keep right and turns. When it says Left, you keep left and turns.

But, you found out the "RIGHT' way to use it. When the GPS Navigator says Right you keep right and turns. When it says Left, then you argue with it. It is not the 'RIGHT' way to turn. There is no Left turn hor! 

Map and a Travel Plan

3. Map and a Travel Plan

You have a Map on hand and have a Travel Plan of where you want to go. You study the map carefully and plan your route. But, there are many times you simply lost your way. You got stuck. You waste time by studying the map again and again trying to pick the next 'Right' route to continue your journey.

 
So how do you navigate in the stock market?

Createwealth8888 navigates in the stock market with a Map and a 10 years Travel Plan; but he will revise his Travel Plan again on 1 Jan 2012.

Second Gift from Jewel in Aussie

Today, so happy to receive second set of gift from Jewel from far far land in Aussie through the hands of her Aunt in Singapore. Thank you. Jewel and her Aunt too.

STI

Straits Times 3,053.51 +39.91 +1.32%

DOW Posts Third Straight Gain

Dow 12,080.38 +76.02 +0.63%

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

Stocks rallied to finish higher in thin trading Monday as fears over Greece's debt crisis subsided and investors snapped up beaten-down stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 76.02 points, or 0.63 percent, to close at 12080.38, led by DuPont [DD 50.39 0.82 (+1.65%) ] and Caterpillar [CAT 98.18 2.23 (+2.32%) ]. But the blue-chip index is still on track for the worst month since last August.

The S&P 500 6.86 points, or 0.54 percent, to end at 1,278.36.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 13.18 points, or 0.50 percent, to finish at 2629.66.

Despite the day's rally, however, stocks are still on pace for the first losing quarter since the second quarter of 2010.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, tumbled to end near 20.

Volume was light with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 2.97 billion shares, while just 786 million shares changed hands on the floor.

“There will be more market participation when there’s confidence,” said Brian Battle, vice president of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners, citing concerns over jobs, housing and the growing U.S. debt.

The euro zone finance ministers gave Greece a two-week deadline to approve tighter austerity measures in return for more emergency loans.

"The approval of the Greek parliament is absolutely essential and it will have to arrive in a timely fashion so we can take a decision on July 3,'' said Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the EU finance ministers.

Meanwhile, Moody's placed ratings of Italian Government-related issuers on review for a possible downgrade. The news comes after the firm said Friday it could downgrade Italy's rating.

The Capital Group Companies is cutting losses on CapitaMalls Asia. Why???

The Capital Group Companies, Inc unloaded more shares of real estate investor and developer and mall operator CapitaMalls Asia with 38.7 million shares sold from April 29 to June 9 at estimated prices of $1.77 to $1.58 each. The trades reduced its deemed holdings by 13 per cent to 271.3 million shares or 6.98 per cent of the issued capital. The fund manager previously sold 36.8 million shares on April 28 at an estimated price of $1.77 each and 89.16 million shares from July 2010 to March 1 this year at estimated prices of $2.07 to $1.75 each. Overall, the fund manager's stake is down by 164.66 million shares or 38 per cent since July 2010.


The disposals by The Capital Group Companies since July 2010 were made at below its purchase prices based on the 62.64 million shares that the group acquired from Jan 26 to Feb 12, 2010 at estimated prices of $2.28 to $2.21 each. The Capital Group Companies reported an initial filing on Nov 25, 2009 of 34 million shares at $2.26 each, which raised its interest to 5.37 per cent.

Investors should note that The Capital Group Companies' sale prices were lower than the IPO price in November 2009 of $2.12. CapitaMalls Asia announced on April 21 a 22.5 per cent drop in Q1 profit after tax to $50.194 million for the three months to March 31, 2011. The stock closed at $1.41 on Friday.

Olam's strategy: Long-term sustainability

Acquisitions, capital raising necessary for growth: CEO


By FELDA CHAY

THE market has yet to give its stamp of approval to Olam International's recent acquisitions and capital raising - done in the name of expanding the business - but chief executive Sunny Verghese is unfazed.

Mr Verghese: Argument will be won when the results start showing

During an interview with BT last week, Mr Verghese acknowledged that ventures such as its mega US$1.5 billion project in the Republic of Gabon have a long gestation period, and will not be earnings accretive in the near horizon. The company's recent move to raise funds through a share placement is also dilutive, he conceded.

But he is convinced that such moves are essential to keep the commodity supplier growing over the longer term, and that the argument will be won when the results start showing.

'Now as a CEO, and also as the owner of a business and a substantial shareholder, I have to make capital choices and investment decisions based on the vantage point of view of a continuing shareholder. Olam cannot just be driven by analyst or stock market pressures to deliver in the short term. We have to deliver sustainably over the long term.

'We have to believe that somebody is going to own this business forever, and think of what is in the best interest of that owner, how we can develop a strategy and make capital choices and investment decisions that will allow us to maximise the long-term intrinsic value of this continuing shareholder.'

Since Olam announced its Gabon fertiliser plant and palm plantation projects, its shares have fallen from the $3.25 they closed at before the deal was announced, to $2.59 last Friday - a whopping 20.3 per cent drop.

While the project is just one of the reasons why Olam's shares have tumbled - other reasons include an analyst report that raised questions on Olam's accounting restatements, and macroeconomic fears - investors are clearly unwilling to invest in the firm given that the project, Olam's largest to date, will only yield earnings in its financial year 2014.

The company's recent share placement has not helped. Since announcing its $740 million fund raising two weeks ago, its shares have tumbled 24 cents amid fears that earnings per share (EPS) will be diluted.

This could well be true, but Mr Verghese is quick to point that the group's EPS remains on track to double every three years. Under Olam's six-year plan that spans the financial years 2010-2015, the group set itself the target of earning US$480 million by FY2015 - quadruple the US$120 million that it earned in FY 2009. According to Mr Verghese, this means that earnings should grow at about 25-26 per cent each year. And so far, Olam has 'significantly exceeded this target of 26 per cent earnings growth'.

'So while we have raised additional equity and we will get diluted, we are hoping that on an EPS basis, growth over this period will be at 25-26 per cent. Which means our actual earnings growth could be 30 per cent, but because of dilution, we will still grow at 25-26 per cent.

'If you grow at such rates, you are doubling every three years. And we have developed a strategy and a pathway to be able to do that over the next few years.'

Of the funds raised from its recent fund raising exercises - which includes a US$1.25 billion syndicated-term loan facility and the $740 million equity placement - 40 per cent will go towards expanding its upstream business.

Another 45 per cent will go into its mid-stream manufacturing and processing division, while 10 per cent will be allocated to the group's supply chain core. The remaining 5 per cent will be reserved for Olam's downstream business.

The group's expansion upstream will see it invest in more coffee plantations, and Mr Verghese said it is looking to invest in plantations in Tanzania. Olam already has coffee plantations in Laos.

Olam is also going to expand its dairy farming activities in Uruguay - an initiative that has seen the firm launch its second offer for all of the shares of New Zealand Farming Systems Uruguay. 'Similarly we are going to invest in almond plantations in the US, palm and rubber plantations in Africa, rice farming, peanut cultivation, soyabean cultivation. We are also looking at getting more hard wood and teak forest concessions,' said Mr Verghese.

Plans for its mid-stream business include further investments in sugar milling, soluble coffee manufacturing, cashew processing, cocoa processing, industrial chocolate manufacturing, the packaged foods business - where a few acquisitions are in the pipeline, said Mr Verghese. Olam will make these investments using its tested approach: by making acquisitions that are bite-sized, taking up just 3-4 per cent of its market value. This amounts to some US$200-300 million per acquisition.

'We generally don't do large, company transformation deals. We follow a string of pearls kind of approach so that if one of those transactions or acquisitions go wrong, we are not risking the whole company. And that has been the track record. It has been a very successful model.'

Still, he left the door open to large transformation mergers and acquisitions. Referring to Olam's merger talks with French commodities firm Louis Dreyfus Commodities (LDC) that ultimately petered out, Mr Verghese said: 'While we considered the Louis Dreyfus merger, that is an exception. That is not the norm.

STI

Straits Times 3,013.60 +8.32 +0.28% 

How do you compute your net worth?

Generally, we compute Net Worth = Assets - Liabilities

Generally and globally accepted standard of computation of assets is to exclude your residential home (however, you can choose of your properties and designate it as residential if you have more than one)

I am more conservative and aware that some assets seem to be moving away from my reach e.g. CPF SA and MA as Government likes to put its strong hand in them.  I might as well exclude them as assets and treat them like bonus.

My Net Worth = Assets - Liabilities   (excluding CPF SA and MA)

Currently, I have zero liabilities.

How good are you at accumulating losses?

Borrow the idea from La Papillion


** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."

Brolp's article on How good are you at accumulating wealth? gives me an idea to be naughty with a BIAS post.

How good are you at accumulating losses?

1. Keep turning your losing short-term trades into long-term investment.
2. Keep averaging down on your losing positions.

and then one day you realized you are good at accumulating losses.

Is it too easy to be a forex trainer?

Borrow the idea from La Papillion


** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."

Read? Trading Courses – Does it work?

Yours Letters, thesundaytimes June 19,2011

Jaya Prakash wrote a letter on that subject.

I may like to change the subject a bit - Is it too easy to be forex or investment trainer?

Every Gurus claimed that they have made millions in investing or trading; but I haven't seen any of these Gurus putting up an audited claims to such results.

What is MAS doing? They should step in to regulate and accredit these trainers.

BTW, If the Gurus are so good and know how to teach people how to make easy money from the market. Why don't they conduct Kindness Draw every month to pick a few lucky fellows and then give them investing tips and help them to make some money. Every lucky fellow is entitled to only one chance.

What you think?

Help me! I am still losing money in my Investment Quadrant (6)

Read? Help me! I am still losing money in my Investment Quadrant (5)

What do I expect to see from some not-so-successful retail investor's portfolio?

I don't be surprised to see that their top losers are also their top holdings. Why?

Probably, They love to play Winning the Loser's Game and the losses became too huge and too painful and emotional to cut losses. They may have little choice but start fooling themselves into getting Discounts and taking Pain Killers

One way to help yourself is to stop playing "Winning the Loser's Game"; but can you really stop it?

Average Down or Pyramid Up? (2)

Read? Average Down or Pyramid Up?

Like it or not. Investing in the stock market is still a Game of Strategy. The ones who have better strategies that are closer to their heart will be most likely to reach their Investing Goals.

Winning the Loser's Game

When the stock market provides you the opportunity to average down; it is telling you that you are on a losing game. What is your strategy in this game plan by Average Down? Are you are trying to Win the Loser's Game?

Winning the Winner's Game


You spotted the opportunity in the market to win it bigger. You pyramid it up and raise the average cost in a winning game. When you are trying to win in the Winner's Game you will have margin of safety to exit when the market has proven you wrong. You may finally choose to leave the game with no loss or some profit.

Conclusion

There is No absolutely right or wrong but Only belief or bias. So what did you believe or bias?

Small retail investors so excited over SCB

For the past few weeks, there was so much excitement at Singapore No 1 investment cbox over SCB who is so kind to level the playing field for spider monkeys with no minimum commission brokerage.

Spider monkeys can now swing from tree to tree to pluck coconuts here and there at very low cost. Since these coconuts can be plucked at very low cost why worry whether the coconut is green, yellow or brown. No problem, just try one coconut at a time.

In investing, I have seen many successful investors learning their lesson from their most painful and unforgettable lesson of big losses before they became wiser.

Small losses here and there will not teach the spider monkeys the truth of investing. There will not be enough pain to hit them harder and make them learn from the painful lessons and become wiser in investing.

I think there is some similarity between swinging spider monkey and the boiled frog.

The Boiled Frog They say that if you put a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will leap out right away to escape the danger. 


But, if you put a frog in a kettle that is filled with water that is cool and pleasant,
and then you gradually heat the kettle until it starts boiling, the frog will not become aware of the threat until it is too late.

The moral of the story ..

If you can't feel the great pain immediately and learn from it; you may be killed slowly without even knowing why.

Boustead - Why sudden drop? Fat fingers or what?

STI vs. DOW since Jan 2009

DOW is still the Big Brother!

Stock Dividends - Sir, how do you want it to be done? Raw, medium or well done?

Read? High Dividend Yield Stocks? (10)

When you received your stock dividends, how do you want it to be done? Raw, medium or well done?

The way you treat it may determine how likely you are going to hold or sell.

Discount

When you received your stock dividend, you mentally discount your holding cost against the dividend received. It lowers your holding cost. So shiok! You may  even tell your wife. "Honey, it is cheaper now."

Every year it will become cheaper after receiving more dividends Why sell? Since it is getting cheaper soon. 

Pain Killer

Wah, so shiok! My dividend is coming in July. What paper losses? Never mind le. Oh ya! SCB account will be ready in end Jun so no problem to reinvest the dividend for compounding "interests" - Eight Wonder of The World.

After receiving so many doses of pain killers, pain no more liao.

Returns on Capital

You add the stock dividend in your portfolio P/L statement as part of the total realized gain. You are more concern on XIRR or CAGR of your portfolio. You could be one of those retail investors who are actively managing their portfolio and trying to optimize their XIRR or CAGR.

Sir, how do you want it to be done? Raw, medium or well done?

DOW - Stocks Have Their First Winning Week Since April

Dow 12,004.36 +42.84 +0.36% 

Dow, S&P Break Six-Week Losing Streak

By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

Stocks finished mixed for the week amid thin, choppy trading, but the Dow and S&P snapped a six-week losing streak, boosted by news a bailout for Greece may be near. However, gains were limited as investors were worried over the continuing economic weakness.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 42.84 points, or 0.36 percent, to finish at 12,004.36, snapping its six-week losing streak and ending above the psychologically-important 12,000-mark.

The S&P 500 gained 3.86 points, or 0.30 percent, to close at 1,271.50, while the Nasdaq slipped 7.22 points, or 0.28 percent, to end at 2,616.48. The Nasdaq is down for the fifth straight week. 

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, slipped to settle at 21.72 after surging to its highest level since mid-March during the previous session.

For the week, the Dow gained 52.45, the S&P eked out a gain of 0.52 points, while the Nasdaq shed 27.25 points.

“The market has reached a little too far in the bearish way, but at the same time, it’s too early to say this correction is over," said Howard Ward, portfolio manager of the GAMCO Growth Fund. "I don’t think 7 percent [market decline] is enough to blow the all-clear whistle.”

“This is a tough time to trade,” said Randy Frederick, Director of Trading and Derivatives at Charles Schwab. “The summer months are going to be tough—I expect choppy, but tight ranges.” 

However, Frederick remains optimistic about the year overall.

“In the third and fourth quarters, we’ll see a rebound,” he said. “When QE2 goes away, it will take a few weeks for people to have confidence and for the markets will battle back and forth. If [markets] can maintain their levels, it will give confidence that they are capable of going on their own.”

Stocks were boosted after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy said at a press conference said that they were united behind a new aid package for Greece. The news came after Greece's prime minister appointed Evangelos Venizelos as finance minister, replacing the unpopular George Papaconstantinou.

CMA - Way below its IPO price. Why IPO holders selling too?

STI hasn't enter into the Bear market yet and it has fallen so much.

Why IPO holder are selling too?