As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

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This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

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Tuesday, 13 October 2020

DBS - Time in the market or Timing the Market?

 Real retail investors on DBS. 

Time in the market or timing the market?  Either  one also NOT easy to do! 

Investor A

Ex-colleague:  Heard you very good at investing?

blah blah

Ex-colleague: How is the market?

CW: Banks and properties are cheonging! DBS at record high!

Ex-colleague: Sianz! I sold my DBS @ $14+

blah blah

CW: I am still holding some DBS bought at $7+ since SARS time.

blah blah

Ex-colleague : When are you going to teach me how to make money?


Investor B

Last night; one ex-vendor and ex-colleague jio Uncle8888 for dinner at the famous Clementi Satay. Of course; when they have dinner with Uncle8888; one of the thing to talk about will be on investing.

This ex-vendor is amazed at Uncle8888's decades of holding multi-bagger stocks and seriously he wanted to learn from him on how to hold multi-bagger stocks over the next market cycles.

His biggest regret of unable to hold winning stocks and this he must learn from Uncle8888 for the next bear market.

Uncle8888 bought DBS at $7.53; but he bought DBS at lower than Uncle8888 at $6+.

The biggest regret is that he sold DBS far too early; otherwise he will be the one telling better story of high yield of 9% multi-bagger blue chip - DBS.



Investor C













15 comments:

  1. Ooh I forgot my tongue in cheek advice 3 yrs ago to start buying DBS when trailing div yield hits 6+%. I think must be quite a few times in the last 6 months when this happened. :P

    Ya, current FY dividends cut ... but this is playing a recovery story or a long term hold for div.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mine was/is B&H&S,Repeat&Rinse since day one(Conceptualised b4 plunging into the market in 1987/88, more or less and reinforced after caught by my 1st B/B cycle.) Old habits really dies hard. Or U can't teach old dogs new tricks?

    That's why since i have invested in the market, i look at the market everyday.
    After sometimes U get creepy eerily looking markets.

    Again the Question Äll roads lead to Singapore(Rome) is true or not?

    i believe it is true only some roads are 99 bends and turns.

    LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Because i look at the market(SGX) everyday, sometimes U will see things happened unbelivable impossible but it happened(Scam in the markets, etc...)

    ReplyDelete
  4. CW,

    Most retail bei kambings got "washed" by vested interests that "timing the market" is for fools and speculators.

    So they thought "time in the market" is all they need; without realising that is the equivalent of saying, "Stocks will always go up!"


    1. Today's SPH price is lower than the lows during March 2009. Monopoly and owned by big daddy some more. So? You mean with more "time in the market", youths will return to reading papers in hardcopy?


    2. 2/3 of Keppel's revenue during the boom years came from their O&G subsidiary doing business in Brazil. Success is what we have to sacrifice to achieve it. What did Keppel O&M sacrificed? Integrity and honour.

    A bit of Singapore's so called whiter than white reputation got sullied too.

    Will Keppel return back to above $10?

    Of course can! But you'll hope the new management will be like the old SMRT management - just focus on share price and sweep everything else under the carpet ;)

    Shhh.... Don't ask; don't tell.





    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPH was once Singapore "Property" Holding; but decided to focus on core biz. LoL!

      Delete
  5. Yes but also a "MEDIA Monopoly Corporation" mostly own by the Elites of the day, b4 INT. has changed everything.

    Not say i did not benefit but only quite little because when i realised it was a BOND LIKE INVESTMENT, not long afterwards, INT. has changed everything.

    Nothing is forever the same even for our 3 BIG BANKS.

    SIA has been affected badly now; will it resumes it's past glories after Covid vaccines for everybody are available?

    Hope so because SIA affected many other associated companies/industries.

    This is not like NOL, the G can sell to somebody leh.

    Can or not sell?

    (Never vested in SIA b4 - associated companies yes more than once. Also kena one even now).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. temperament,

      Lao Lee once said he is willing to "sacrifice" SIA, but he'll never give up Changi Airport's status as a regional aviation hub...

      There was a bit of "concern" when KL and Bangkok got their new airports up and running in the past. Bangkok is much better located to play Changi's role. What we lack in location we made up for it with "efficiency" ;)

      Your nothing is forever is so right!

      Never take anything for granted.

      Unless of course we believe stocks always go up!

      Delete
    2. Hi SMOL, I recalled you once asked who ever bought shares and never sold. Well, I believe I am that guy.

      I have been and still is a lazy investor. Tracking stock prices was and is just not my thing. I buy shares regularly and they will remain with me till;

      1. They get delisted
      2. They merged with other stocks
      3. They went belly up
      4. Some bigger shareholder offered to buy over (but didnt achieve sufficient majority to delist)
      5. They become multi-baggers
      6. They become penny stocks

      I bought my very first stock - SBS for their concession pass in 1987 and that started my journey in stock "investment". It was small amount each year. My focus, as shared earlier, was on property. I guess I was influenced by the crowd I moved in. Everyone in that crowd was talking property. I have bought 4 properties in all and sold 2. That is, currently I am holding two. One for staying and one for income generation. The property investment fervour was permanently dampened with the rapid introduction of a slew of cooling measures especially the TDSR, and ABSD.

      Since then I have been channeling the money into stocks AND refunding money into my CPF.

      So how did I fare in my investment journey? I really dont know! Tracking my investment performance was not something I do.

      I only started tracking my passive income in 2011, and is coming to 10 years. The passive income streams are dividends from my stock holdings, rental income and interests from CPF.

      From 2011 to now (9 years and 10 months), the combined passive income (combined for my wife and I) came up to roughly $1.2M. The amount is sufficient to cover the cost of our investment property. This Covid year, Mr Market has taken back (paper loss) about $200k?? But I am still buying shares regularly (every month).



      Delete
    3. mysecretinvestment,

      Fantastic!

      You bought and SOLD properties, not just buy-and-hold ;)

      And you made loads from your property SALES!!!

      No REALISED gains how to invest the winnings in stocks and transfer back to CPF?


      Life is good when your CPF is a minority share of your total networth. You the man!

      Putting money in CPF is not investing to get rich. Its to ring fence your profits so you don't lose them back to the markets. A hedge, if you will.


      1. You got a POWER day job! You need capital to play the property game. 4 some more!!!

      2. You have a few multibaggers in stocks like CW to dilute out those lemons you've picked ;)

      3. The passive incomes from your stocks, CPF, and rental property are powerful panadols to dull the pain of paper losses from stocks. In fact, they're your opportunity funds. You sly fox you! You wouldn't mind stocks going lower, do you? (That's why snake oils need to burn evenings and weekends to ensure regular cashflow in to dilute their losses)


      Its nice to see so many quiet, quiet Tarzans in our community.

      I'm just an ant hill compared to your 泰山.


      Thanks for sharing!

      I hope more readers will understand investing/trading is about 8 immortals crossing the Eastern Sea. Just do it your own way!


      P.S. Your story fits my anecdotal observation. I know more people who have done well in properties than those who made it through stocks.

      Which also fits the statistics from CPF - more have lost money using CPFIS to invest than those who used CPF to buy properties.

      Wait. I should become a property agent!

      Delete
  6. Sometimes mgmt quality & company culture really do play a critical part, even if the industry is sunset or shitty.

    The recovery story of another major newspaper company in one chart.

    They too got hit badly by new & free forms of media. But made a drastic pivot early on.

    Not that I would have stayed as an investor. I'm not so patient! Plus their dividend is quite pathetic.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Don't forget Singapore is a little RED DOT.

    For SPH to be like NYT the possibility is quite slim.

    But can it becomes a new identity somehow?

    ReplyDelete
  8. But i won't want to bet on it(SPH).

    There are many better bets, i think.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Some people simply got no time for the market thanks to a busy but successful career. When the job generates good income with low risk, then it doesn't make much financial sense to get distracted with risky, competitive financial markets. However, not investing at all is not a wise option. Buying and holding low-cost passive indices with long-term track record of beating professional investors, low time commitment, believing in "Time in market beats timing the market" will work better for them.

    Some people can time the market. They should ignore standard advice like "don't time the market", especially if they love this kind of activity.

    All depends on individual situation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i think for me always is Mother statements can summarise the wisdom behind why people say them.

      And must take heed and apply the wisdom to our thoughts & actions.

      "Different folks, different storkes"

      "All roads lead to Singapore(Rome)"

      "If you don't have the stomach for when your portfolio is down 50%, don't invest in the market in the 1st place."

      "Actully there is no right or wrong time to buy in the market. Only there is the right time to sell in the market. The problem is hardly anyone can do it right." (Me thought).

      And many, many more but the best of all is we all think we are better than the below quote. Which many of us aren't - including me lah.

      Quote:-

      "By having the humility to simply accept the returns of the stock market, and paying next to nothing in expenses, ordinary investors will outpace most pros".

      Do we consider ourselves as ordinary investors?

      No, right?

      But most of us are, i think.

      Of course me too.

      Delete
  10. Base on "By having the humility to simply accept the returns of the stock market, and paying next to nothing in expenses, ordinary investors will outpace most pros".
    It seems to work if all historical data and assumptions are true.

    http://moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

    Mine will be from 1987 to 2019.

    Anyone think it is so, so calculation only?

    ReplyDelete

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