I started serious Investing Journey in Jan 2000 to create wealth through long-term investing and short-term trading; but as from April 2013 my Journey in Investing has changed to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Since 2017 after retiring from full-time job as employee; I am moving towards Investing Nirvana - Freehold Investment Income for Life investing strategy where 100% of investment income from portfolio investment is cashed out to support household expenses i.e. not a single cent of re-investing!

It is 57% (2017 to Aug 2022) to the Land of Investing Nirvana - Freehold Income for Life!

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Value Investing
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Sunday, 25 January 2015

Kep Corp : Graphical Crystal Ball Glazing???


Starting from ....

 1. New Order Book

 What did you see for the two red arrow?






























2. Net Order Book Distribution (Revenue recognition)

 What did you see for Year 1 (2015) relative to previous years?

Relatively higher revenue in 2015

 Why?


















 

2015 is very busy year for deliveries.

15 JUs/1 Semi/1 Accom. Semi Repair/2 JU Repairs

1 FPSO Upgrade/2 FPSO Conversions/3 Turret Fabrications

1 FPSO Modules Integration/1 Transformer Platform

1 Floating Crane/1 Depletion Compression Platform

1 Pipelay Vessel/2 Ice Class Supply Vessels/1 Ice Class 

Multi-Purpose Duty Rescue Vessel/2 Submersible Barges/1 Tug


3. Net Order Book vs Future Revenue Trending Pattern
What did you see on future revenue from 2015 onwards?


























Why is Kep Corp taking Keppel Land private?


Is there something Kep Corp's CEO cannot say it out?


4. Operating and Net Margin



















 5. Kep Corp Group PATMI vs its O&M


Lastly, you see what you see and Uncle8888 sees what he saw.

So don't ask him what he saw. Most retail investors are bias in their thinking and analysis. 

 
 




Posted by Createwealth8888 at 12:18
Labels:

7 comments:

  1. SMK25 January 2015 at 16:03:00 GMT+8

    Come come lah uncle huat!
    Tell us what you saw.
    My eyes see until cross eyed liao. Lol

    ReplyDelete
  2. Siew Mun25 January 2015 at 17:45:00 GMT+8

    Ya. Me blur sotong. CW, please tell us

    ReplyDelete
  3. An26 January 2015 at 06:33:00 GMT+8

    Hi Uncle, pls share what you see. I am a new investor in KC and at this moment, I am unsure if it's such a good deal. Appreciate it.

    My reason for buying KC was for dividend, in excess of 4% at my recent entry price for a blue chip.

    Your Hg Neighbour

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Createwealth888826 January 2015 at 07:27:00 GMT+8

      Just about everything is cyclical.

      Nothing goes in one direction forever.

      Tree’s don’t grow to the sky.

      Few things go to zero.

      Cycles always prevail eventually.


      You can’t predict. You can prepare.

      - Howard Marks




      I suspect Kep Corp CEO is aware of the above truth.

      Kep Corp can't predict when the oil will rebound (Listen to webcast if you have time or wait for 1 or 2 days to read the transcript if no time to listen) so Kep Corp has prepared to meet the down cycle by privatizing Kepland to receive up to 46% of its earning to offset the weakest in O&M.

      In this way, for those who are in KC for blue chip dividend yield at least 4 or 5 %; you should be okay for 2015 and 2016 based on my graphical crystal ball glazing.

      I suspect Kepland investors may take up Kep Corp offer in exchange for 2 Kepland for 1 Kep Corp share and then fully "own" 100% of Kepland and the rest of Kep Corp's businesses. Trade up 28 cts dividend in Kepland for $36 cts in Kep Corp.

      i.e. Sell 2 units of Kepland and buy 1 unit of Kep Corp.

      Not good deal for Kepland holders?

      Who say no good?




      Delete
  4. Createwealth888826 January 2015 at 08:03:00 GMT+8

    Look at chart for Net Order Book vs Future Revenue Trending Pattern

    You can see the similar pattern in FY 2012.

    Revenue in 2015 is suspected to fall below $7B and probably why CEO must prepare to offset this weakness. How?

    Listen to the webcast. Kepland is a low hanging fruit to be plucked without taking any integration or execution risk.

    Even SGX waive KC to seek shareholders approval as SGX sees relatively no risks to KC shareholders.

    ReplyDelete
  5. An26 January 2015 at 08:47:00 GMT+8

    Tks for reply Sir. I agree, we are definitely in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environment.
    Same reason as to why I do not even follow stock markets daily.

    Talking abt yield, it's because I did not get the interim dividened, that's why the yield based on 36 cents is 4 plus %.
    I will certainly hang on and cheer KC with you.

    Can I request you alert your many fans the next time you add KC? ;-)

    ReplyDelete

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