History of the Greatest Bear to be noted

http://mysmartrade.blogspot.com/2009/03/dow-jones-bear-rally-likely-to-continue.html

The 22% rally on the DOW since March 9th was the fastest two-week advance since 1938. The DOW have fallen 54.5% from it's Oct 07 high. History tells us that in every major Bear market there will be also major Bear rallies.The 1973-1974 cyclical bear market (dropped 47%), had two rallies of approximately 10%. The 2000-2002 bear had three big rallies (19%, 21.4%, and 20.7%). The current bear has had four double-digit rallies (13.1%, 17.7% and 18.3% and the recent 22%).

At the start of the bear market that led to the Great Depression, the Dow tumbled 89%between 1929-1932 and had a total of five 20%-plus rallies over the course if its 34-month decline . The first was a massive 48% rally. The last rally of 24.6% was followed by a final decline of 53.6%.

Since 1900there were 23 bear markets, the average bear market rally is a gain of 15% lasting an average of 50 days

If toxic asset clean up plan and the stimulus package that Timothy Geitner's proposal works and banks start to lend actively again, we may be able to tell ourselves ‘the worst is over and the `Great Recession' will not materialised, we can all start to invest rationally again. Whether this proves to be right (again) , we probably will not know till a few weeks/months later. The next quarter corporate reportings will really put the recent optimism to an acid test. If the market crumbles again under the disappointing corporate reportings, market cynicism will creep back…..and yes, then this will prove to be just another bear market rally. The average bear market rally is a gain of 15% and the major bear market rally average 25%. The average bear market rally would give the Dow a 7,500 upside. However, if we take the average of the major bear market rallies of over 25% we can project an upside target of 8,250