As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Sunday, 25 January 2015

Kep Corp : Graphical Crystal Ball Glazing???


Starting from ....

1. New Order Book

What did you see for the two red arrow?
































2. Net Order Book Distribution (Revenue recognition)

What did you see for Year 1 (2015) relative to previous years?

Relatively higher revenue in 2015

Why?




















 

2015 is very busy year for deliveries.

15 JUs/1 Semi/1 Accom. Semi Repair/2 JU Repairs

1 FPSO Upgrade/2 FPSO Conversions/3 Turret Fabrications


1 FPSO Modules Integration/1 Transformer Platform


1 Floating Crane/1 Depletion Compression Platform


1 Pipelay Vessel/2 Ice Class Supply Vessels/1 Ice Class 


Multi-Purpose Duty Rescue Vessel/2 Submersible Barges/1 Tug



3. Net Order Book vs Future Revenue Trending Pattern


What did you see on future revenue from 2015 onwards?


























Why is Kep Corp taking Keppel Land private?


Is there something Kep Corp's CEO cannot say it out?


4. Operating and Net Margin





















 5. Kep Corp Group PATMI vs its O&M


Lastly, you see what you see and Uncle8888 sees what he saw.

So don't ask him what he saw. Most retail investors are bias in their thinking and analysis. 



 
 




7 comments:

  1. Come come lah uncle huat!
    Tell us what you saw.
    My eyes see until cross eyed liao. Lol

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ya. Me blur sotong. CW, please tell us

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Uncle, pls share what you see. I am a new investor in KC and at this moment, I am unsure if it's such a good deal. Appreciate it.

    My reason for buying KC was for dividend, in excess of 4% at my recent entry price for a blue chip.

    Your Hg Neighbour

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just about everything is cyclical.

      Nothing goes in one direction forever.

      Tree’s don’t grow to the sky.

      Few things go to zero.

      Cycles always prevail eventually.


      You can’t predict. You can prepare.

      - Howard Marks




      I suspect Kep Corp CEO is aware of the above truth.

      Kep Corp can't predict when the oil will rebound (Listen to webcast if you have time or wait for 1 or 2 days to read the transcript if no time to listen) so Kep Corp has prepared to meet the down cycle by privatizing Kepland to receive up to 46% of its earning to offset the weakest in O&M.

      In this way, for those who are in KC for blue chip dividend yield at least 4 or 5 %; you should be okay for 2015 and 2016 based on my graphical crystal ball glazing.

      I suspect Kepland investors may take up Kep Corp offer in exchange for 2 Kepland for 1 Kep Corp share and then fully "own" 100% of Kepland and the rest of Kep Corp's businesses. Trade up 28 cts dividend in Kepland for $36 cts in Kep Corp.

      i.e. Sell 2 units of Kepland and buy 1 unit of Kep Corp.

      Not good deal for Kepland holders?

      Who say no good?




      Delete
  4. Look at chart for Net Order Book vs Future Revenue Trending Pattern

    You can see the similar pattern in FY 2012.

    Revenue in 2015 is suspected to fall below $7B and probably why CEO must prepare to offset this weakness. How?

    Listen to the webcast. Kepland is a low hanging fruit to be plucked without taking any integration or execution risk.

    Even SGX waive KC to seek shareholders approval as SGX sees relatively no risks to KC shareholders.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Tks for reply Sir. I agree, we are definitely in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environment.
    Same reason as to why I do not even follow stock markets daily.

    Talking abt yield, it's because I did not get the interim dividened, that's why the yield based on 36 cents is 4 plus %.
    I will certainly hang on and cheer KC with you.

    Can I request you alert your many fans the next time you add KC? ;-)

    ReplyDelete

Related Posts with Thumbnails