STI : Sell in May and Go away!

 

 

 

Rate of correction is quite steep.

-4.3% in 9 days!

Finally, all members in Uncle8888's Long-term Portfolio are generating passive income!

read? BIOSENSORS : Finally it pays dividend!

Indeed a long wait .....

 

Sembcorp Marine unit gets US$220.5m contract

By

Carine Lee

         

 

Sembcorp Marine has, through its subsidiary PPL Shipyard, secured a US$220.5 million contract from BOT Lease Co Ltd, a leasing company of The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ - PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

Sembcorp Marine has, through its subsidiary PPL Shipyard, secured a US$220.5 million contract from BOT Lease Co Ltd, a leasing company of The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

The contract, announced on Thursday, is for a jack-up drilling rig scheduled for delivery at the end of January 2015.

The contract is not expected to have any material impact on Sembcorp Marine's net tangible assets per share for the current financial year ending Dec 31.

Why People Get So Emotional About Gold

By: Marshall Gittler

I recently wrote an article for CNBC about why I thought gold was going down. It was a pretty straightforward article, I thought, maybe even a bit dull with its echoes of Economics 101.

Well, I couldn't have imagined the response I got, which were mostly negative and angry. The experience made me wonder: why were so many people so upset with me for trying to explain why gold has been going down?

Gold peaked in September 2011 and the decline has accelerated recently, with the price down over 20 percent since last October. This is a fact. You would think that investors in gold would want to understand why it's falling so that they can decide whether to get out now or, if they think the reasons for the decline are wrong, buy more. So why get so upset? The answer to that has a lot to do with what makes someone a good investor. It's a lesson that everyone should learn if they are going to invest in anything.

The reason is what behavioural finance calls cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is what you experience when you find out something that goes against your beliefs. The best example is the typical TV news interview with a murderer's mother. She always says what a good boy her son is, he would never do anything like that, he loves his mother, he loves his dog, etc. etc. This is normal. When faced with some new information that goes against our long-held beliefs, most people prefer to ignore the new information or rationalize it away rather than change their beliefs.

The more time and effort people have invested in those beliefs, and the more costly it would be for them to admit that the new information is true, the greater the dissonance that they experience and the greater the need that they feel to reduce it. Reduce it not by changing their beliefs, but by ignoring or discrediting the new information.

So a mother, who's spent years and years raising her son and does love him, would naturally just refuse to believe that he's a murderer. And an investor who owns a lot of gold, subscribes to newsletters about gold, talks about gold with his friends, and has made a lot of money in gold in recent years, is likely to refute or reject any new information that says now might not be the best time to buy gold.

This is especially so because most people have a lot more confidence in themselves, their knowledge and their decision-making abilities than they should. I could see that in the responses to my article, some of which showed an imperfect understanding of economics at best.

For example, one reader who execrated me for saying bank reserves aren't money, argued that they are money because the U.S. Federal Reserve pays interest on them, which ignores the fact that the Fed didn't pay interest on them before 2008, the European Central Bank currently doesn't pay interest on them, and the National Bank of Denmark actually charges a fee for holding them! Yet they were very confident in their opinion. Overconfidence is a big problem in investing.

Unfortunately, if someone does begin to feel unsure about their beliefs, then they usually won't try to learn more to see if their beliefs really are true. On the contrary, they'll generally take action to justify their existing beliefs. This is called confirmation bias. They will sort through the article and pay greater attention to any facts that support their position than the facts that don't. They'll try to find some small part that they "know" is wrong, and will therefore feel justified in ignoring the whole thing.

The important point to learn from this is that investors have to realize their own biases and tendencies and deal with them when investing. The market doesn't care what you believe any more than the rain cares whether you get wet. You can't let your emotions get in the way of your understanding the market, otherwise you can get swept away.

Cognitive dissonance can be deadly when it comes to investing. When you're investing, it doesn't matter whether you are right or wrong; what matters is whether you make money. You shouldn't invest to prove something about yourself, to prove to other people that you're smart or that you're right, because at some point you're definitely going to be proven wrong. Some losses are inevitable in investing. It's not a shame. It's not a disgrace. It's normal. One of the keys to being a good investor is therefore to minimize your losses.

Confirmation bias can also be deadly. Naturally, it's more pleasant to read things that you agree with than things that you don't agree with. But if you don't try at least to understand why some people think differently from you, you're going to lose money sometime. It doesn't matter how smart you are; nobody can know everything. That's why stop-loss orders were invented. As the famous investor Howard Marks said, "you can't predict. You can prepare."

You have to have a plan before you go into a trade. You have to understand why you are taking a position, you have to have a target for how far you think it will go (since nothing goes up forever) and you need to decide on the stop loss level: the point at which you decide you were wrong and get out of the trade.

If you want an emotional experience, go on a date! Get married! That's where your emotions should come into play. In investing, our emotions are our enemies. We have to understand them and conquer them or else they can cause us to defeat ourselves.

The author is the Head of Global FX Strategy at IronFX, an on-line trading firm specializing in Forex, CFDs on U.S. and U.K. stocks, and commodities. He was previously Head of the Forex Committee at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management.
 

Minimum of 10,000 hours hard work (2)

Just For Thinking ...


Read? Minimum of 10,000 hours hard work

How many retail investors are willing to put in a minimum of 10,000 hours hard work into their investing journey to make it a success?

Most of them are just willing to save more and invest money instead of spending some more quality time into acquiring investing knowledge and skills to survive in the market.


Putting avearge of one hour per day of learning and soaking into financial news etc ...

You will become expert in 27 years across 4-6 market cycles of Bull and Bear.


Putting average of two hours per day of learning and soaking into financial news etc ...

You will become expert in 14 years across 2-3 market cycles of Bull and Bear
.
(Uncle8888 is in this stage of learning)


Putting average of three hours  per day of learning and soaking into financial news etc ...

You will become expert in 7years across 1-2 market cycles of Bull and Bear.


"Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he'll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he'll have to touch to be sure." - Murphy


So did you see stars or bench?

BIOSENSORS : Finally it pays dividend!

Biosensors: Reports Financial Results For Fiscal Year 2013

 

For Q4 FY13, Biosensors reported total revenue of US$88.8 million, comparable to a year ago of US$88.2 million.

 

Product revenue of US$76.4 million, a 17% increase over US$65.3 million in Q4 FY12. Correspondingly, IVP sales rose to US$73.3 million, up 18% from US$61.9 million in Q4 FY12, driven by increased DES sales. CCP sales revenue was US$3.1 million, compared to US$3.5 million in Q4 FY12.

 

Licensing and royalties revenue was US$12.4 million, down US$10.4 million or 46% from US$22.8 million in Q4 FY12.

 

 

The Company has recommended a final dividend of US$0.02 per share for the financial year ended 31 March 2013 amounting to US$34.5 million, subject to shareholders' approval...

 

 

Money from China? Then "Made in China", shipowners told

By Rujun Shen

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chinese banks have sharply increased loans to global shipowners as European lenders retreat from the market but some are driving a hard bargain: the finance often comes with the condition that vessels be built in China.

The financing has given China's shipyards a lifeline after new orders dropped to a seven-year low in 2012. The government wants Chinese yards to move up the value chain by building higher-quality vessels and to become a player in the offshore energy equipment industry, a lucrative sector in the generally depressed shipbuilding market.

The role played by Chinese lenders has drawn the ire of some industry critics, who say an already oversupplied global fleet will only get bigger because shipowners are taking advantage of cheaper quotes from Chinese yards compared to other builders.

Chinese shipyards won new orders of 11.57 million deadweight tonnes in the first four months of the year, up 57 percent from the same period in 2012, data from the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry showed.

A key supporter has been the Export-Import Bank of China, a policy bank that provides financing to advance government economic goals.

"China Ex-Im is open to all clients who build vessels in China," said Chen Bin, deputy general manager of the bank's transport finance department.

"In this tough time we want to do as much as we can to help (Chinese) shipyards get orders from shipping companies," Chen told a Sea Asia shipping conference in Singapore in April.

BIG GREEK ORDER

Last month, Greek shipowners ordered 142 vessels, more than 60 percent of their global orderbook, from Chinese yards. Good pricing and Chinese financing were among the reasons, Greek Shipping Minister Kostis Moussouroulis was quoted by China's official Xinhua News Agency as saying at the time.

Among them, Diana Shipping Inc (DSX.N), Angelicoussis Shipping Group Limited and Dynagas Ltd. got loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, the bank said on its website.

The Ex-Im Bank as well as commercial banks such as the International and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) and the Bank of China (3988.HK) are some of the most active lenders.

Together they doubled their share of the loan book of the top 40 lenders to the shipping industry in the last two years to 11 percent, or about $46.5 billion in loans, data from Norway's DNB, the world's largest shipping loan provider, shows.

Ex-Im Bank had about $13 billion in outstanding shipping loans in May, up 30 percent from the end of 2011, and planned to offer more, Chen told Reuters. He declined to give a target.

"The enticement to order at particular yards on the basis that you will get financed certainly attracted a lot of non-listed European companies," said Timothy Ross, head of Asia-Pacific transport research at Credit Suisse.

Seadrill Co. Ltd (SDRL.OL), Sevan Drilling ASA (SEVDR.OL) and Singapore-based Frigstad Offshore Ltd, all of which have made orders at Chinese yards within the past two years, did not respond to requests for comment.

But Larry Pupkin, director of Singapore-based Littoral Management, which helps shipowners find yards for construction and arrange financing, said Chinese quotes and financing terms were attractive.

Chinese banks are not alone in helping their shipyards. Bankers and lawyers said policy banks in South Korea were also giving finance to shipowners to place orders at Korean yards, which topped China in the value of orders last year.

In 2012, South Korea won contracts worth nearly $30 billion, while Chinese yards received $18.2 billion in orders, according to the World Shipyard Monitor published by Clarkson Research Services. Global new orders totalled $85.5 billion.

So far this year, Chinese yards have won orders worth $5.4 billion for 184 vessels, compared to $11.5 billion in contracts for 125 new ships at Korean yards. In tonnage terms, China and South Korea were neck-and-neck, the Clarkson data showed.

"The view in the industry right now is, if you need money to buy ships, Chinese and Korean lenders will fund you," said Jon Windham, head of industrial research at Barclays for Asia ex-Japan.

PUSH INTO OFFSHORE EQUIPMENT

The oversupply of vessels, low shipping rates and sluggish demand has drawn concern from some industry officials in China.

"Banks ... shipowners and cargo owners should take an extremely cautious attitude towards shipping investment under this catastrophically oversupplied market," said Zhang Shouguo, executive vice president of China's Shipowners' Association.

In a letter posted on the organisation's website, Zhang estimated that global ship supply exceeded demand by 30 percent.

Beijing has promised to help its vast shipbuilding sector develop as part of a broader effort to upgrade the country's massive manufacturing industry.

In a 2011 document on the strategy to develop the offshore energy equipment industry, China's National Development and Reform Commission urged banks to increase financing to manufacturers.

Industry leaders in that sector are yards in Singapore and South Korea.

But a number of Chinese yards, including Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. Ltd, Yantai CIMC Raffles Offshore Ltd and yards under state conglomerates China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO), have started to challenge in the market for jackup rigs, which drill in water up to a depth of 150 metres (500 feet).

Chinese yards had 35 of the 95 orders for jackups by the end of the first quarter, from fewer than 20 at the start of 2012, Norway-based Pareto Securities said. Singapore had 45.

Seadrill, chaired by shipping tycoon John Frederiksen, placed an order last year for two barges and two jackup rigs at Dalian Shipbuilding, with a syndicated loan of $440 million in which the Ex-Im Bank of China took a sizable chunk, according to the bank.

Even in the offshore equipment field, which has a good outlook thanks to rising expenditure on oil and gas exploration and production, some Chinese bank executives called for prudence.

"Offshore (equipment) is a huge market, but we are concerned about a rush into the market en masse," said Yang Changkun, managing director of shipping at ICBC Financial Leasing Co. Ltd, an arm of ICBC bank.

Nevertheless, Yang told Reuters that ICBC Financial Leasing hoped to bring in 10 billion yuan worth of ship finance deals this year, equivalent to what the company did in the five years since its establishment in 2007.

HEYDAY OVER FOR EUROPEAN BANKS

European banks still dominate lending to the global industry, although their share fell to 75 percent in 2012 from 83 percent in 2010, the DNB data showed.

One major difference in strategy is that Chinese banks are happy to work with new shipowners, while European lenders appear to be working more with existing clients.

"There are European banks that are able to do new business, however, some of the same banks are also spending a lot of time managing their existing book," said Gregg Johnston, partner at law firm Stephenson Harwood LLP in Singapore.

German lender Commerzbank (CBKGk.DE) last year said it would wind up its ship finance unit. France's Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) sold part of its shipping loan portfolio to Citigroup (C.N).

"I don't think European banks will go back to the strength they had before the crisis. Asian banks will very nicely fill the gap," said Mario Behe, co-head of ship finance for Credit Suisse in Singapore.

Stocks Close Higher; Dow Finishes at Record High, Ends in Positive Territory for 20th Straight Tuesday

By: JeeYeon Park CNBC.com Writer

Stocks shaved their gains but still ended in positive territory across the board Tuesday following a long holiday weekend, buoyed by supportive comments from central banks around the world and a pair of upbeat economic data.

The blue-chip index finished higher for the 20th-straight Tuesday. The last time the index even got this far was in 1927 when the Dow closed up 15 consecutive Tuesdays between June 1927 and September 1927.

"If you believe in calendar folklore, the day after a three-day weekend has a bias to the upside and the final week of the month has a bias to the upside and it's terrific Tuesday again," noted Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services. Cashin also noted that trading volume has been on the lighter side.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shaved its gains but still logged a triple-digit gain of 106.29 points to end at 15,409.39, led by Microsoft and United Health. The Dow was up 218 points at its session high.

The S&P 500 rose 10.46 points, to close at 1,660.06. And the Nasdaq advanced 29.74 points, to finish at 3,488.89. Both indexes closed higher for the 10th-consecutive Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, finished above 14.

 

Defensive Blue Chip yield stock: StarHub or Kep Corp??? (2)

Just For Thinking ....


Read? Defensive Blue Chip yield stock: StarHub or Kep Corp???

Assuming we have bought all the 30 STI component stocks at 2009 market low, what are their total shareholder return i.e.4 years of dividend plus capital appreciation at today market closing price.

Kep Corp : 8

StarHub :  13



Uncle8888's long-term blue chips holding secure the following position:-

Kep Corp : 8
Semb Corp : 11
DBS : 14
Noble : 18



Adding in STI ETF after Ray's comment ..

 

 

 

 

SembMarine wins jack-up order

 

Newbuild order: Statoil’s Category J jack-up design will work for three to four years at the Mariner oilfield
     

STATOIL

           

Danica Newnham

 28 May 2013 00:36 GMT

Singapore-listed Sembcorp Marine has won a near $600 million contract with Noble Corp to build a jack-up rig for work in the UK North Sea.

SembMarine’s Jurong Shipyard secured the $596 deal for a newbuild ultra-high specification jack-up rig with an option for an additional unit.

This followed Norwegian operator Statoil’s announcement last week that it had handed a $655 million contract to Noble for a multi-year drilling campaign at the Mariner oilfield off the UK.

In April, Upstream had identified Jurong Shipyard as one of the contenders for the newbuild construction job, as well as Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering in South Korea.

The rig will be built to Statoil’s Category J specifications and based on the Gusto MSC CJ70 design. It will be capable of operating in harsh environments, in water depths of up to 150 metres and can drill down to 10,000 metres.

The rig is scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of 2016.

Jurong Shipyard is also currently constructing six F&G JU3000N class jack-ups for Noble at a combined value of $1.3 billion.

Reflections at Keppel Bay tops the prestigious international FIABCI Prix d’Excellence Awards 2013

The iconic development wins the Gold award under the Residential (High Rise) category

Reflections at Keppel Bay, one of the world's most architecturally daring icon, has been conferred the highest Gold award in the highly acclaimed FIABCI Prix d'Excellence Awards 2013.

Receiving the award at the 64th FIABCI World Congress in Taichung, Taiwan, was Mr Tan Tai Chiew, General Manager of Keppel Bay, the joint venture developer behind Reflections at Keppel Bay, comprising Keppel Corporation and Keppel Land.

Mr Tan said, "The latest win reaffirms our commitment to develop world-class properties that bear the Keppel quality hallmark. Beyond architectural excellence, we strive to create desirable living environments that will enrich the lives of our residents at Reflections at Keppel Bay and across all our properties.

"As a global architectural icon, Reflections at Keppel Bay mirrors Singapore's status as a modern and forward-thinking nation. Keppel is proud to play our role in continually shaping our city skyline with distinctive landmarks such as Reflections at Keppel Bay, that also positions Singapore on the world map of prime real estates."

Strategically located on Singapore's southern coast, Reflections at Keppel Bay features six glass towers and 11 villa apartment blocks along a 750-metre shoreline. The 1,129 luxurious waterfront apartments enjoy unrivalled views of the bay, golf course, lush parks and Mount Faber. Designed by master architect Daniel Libeskind, Reflections at Keppel Bay is his first residential showcase in Asia.

Mr Libeskind added, "I am delighted that Reflections at Keppel Bay has been named the Gold winner by the FIABCI. Reflections at Keppel Bay has been influential, not only on the community but on the city at large. Singapore is known as a paradigm for innovative residential developments and Keppel Land has been exemplary in its desire for innovative, sustainable, and creative design. I am delighted that our close collaboration with Keppel Land is continuing with the new project, Corals at Keppel Bay."

The development achieved temporary occupation permit in December 2011. To-date, about 95% (901 units) of the 950 launched units at Reflections at Keppel Bay have been sold. Tapping on strong leasing demand for luxury waterfront residences in Singapore, more than 150 units have been set aside as corporate residences.

Riding on the strong demand for luxury waterfront properties, Keppel has launched Corals at Keppel Bay, also designed by Libeskind. Located along the historic King's Dock in the Keppel Bay precinct, Corals at Keppel Bay will comprise 366 premium waterfront residences.

The FIABCI Prix d'Excellence recognises international real estate projects that display distinction in various aspects of a development such as concept, architecture and design, development and construction, financial and marketing, environmental impact and community benefit.


Reflections at Keppel Bay has also won numerous international and local awards including:

• Universal Design Mark Platinum Award 2013 by the Building and Construction Authority of Singapore (BCA);
• Singapore Property Awards 2012, Residential (High Rise) Category by FIABCI - Singapore;
• The International Architecture Award 2012 by The Chicago Athenaeum: Museum of Architecture and Design and The European Centre for Architecture Art Design and Urban Studies;
• Special Award, Residential Building of the Year (Multiple Occupancy) by LEAF (Leading European Architects Forum) Architect Awards 2012; and
• Top score of 95.9% for the internationally-acclaimed CONQUAS® (Construction Quality Assessment System) by BCA.

Defensive Blue Chip yield stock: StarHub or Kep Corp???

Just For Thinking ....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dividend Investing Quiz time

 

Which one is the most likely defensive dividend yield play stock in SG market at last Friday market closing price and based on likely 2013 dividend payout?

 

 

 

 

1. StarHub @ 4.7% dividend yield @ $4.26
2. Kep Corp @ 4.1% dividend yield @ 10.91

 

What is your answer?

 

 

1 or 2?

 

 

Your answer is

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Right?

 

 

 

 

Now Uncle8888 is asking you to study carefully into the table below

 

 

 

 

 

What did you see?

 

 

 

What is your answer now?

 

 

Still

 

 

 

?

 

 

 

Analysts flag more bullish times for rig builders

Play of the week, ST, Sat, May 25, 2013


.. It is added that Keppel may benefit from having a shipyard in Azerbaijan as it is reportedly close to signing a contract with Socar, an oil and natural gas firm owned by Azerbaijan, for a semi-submersible rig worth between US$700m - US$800m.



BAKU, May 22 (Reuters) - Azeri state energy firm SOCAR plans to borrow more than $20 billion over the next five years to finance energy projects to help boost gas exports to Europe, a challenge to plans by neighbouring Russia.

SOCAR, one of the world's oldest oil companies, wants to send gas to Europe, hoping to capitalise on a desire in European capitals to diversify their supply from Russia after Moscow's "gas wars" with Ukraine disrupted supplies in 2006 and 2009.

The plan to tap its Shah-Deniz II project for an expected 16 billion cubic metres per year (bcm/y) of gas to Europe is in direct competition to the South Stream pipeline project, led by Azerbaijan's former Soviet master, Russia.

Vice President Suleiman Gasymov said he would approach foreign banks as well as turning to the state oil fund to pay for a $5 billion refinery in Turkey, a $17 billion oil and gas processing and petrochemical complex, the $8 billion Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline project (TANAP) and new drilling rigs on the Caspian Sea worth $4 billion.

"SOCAR starts implementation of four projects with a total estimated cost of $33 billion-$35 billion from 2013," he said in an interview.

"Sixty-five percent of the cost will be provided by bank credits, while the remaining 35 percent (will come) from Azerbaijan's own resources, mainly the state oil fund."

SOCAR is a sole shareholder in three projects and controls the TANAP project aimed at taking Azeri gas to Turkey and to markets in Europe.

Construction of the TANAP pipeline, which will be built from the Turkish-Georgian border to Turkey's border with Europe, is expected to start at the end of 2013 and the project's first phase is seen ready at the end of 2017 or early 2018.

South Stream, which will stretch more than 2,000 km to northeast Italy, is expected to be built by the end of 2015, its chief executive of the offshore section said earlier this month.

New drilling rigs on the Caspian Sea will be built for SOCAR by Singapore's Keppel.

CREDIT RATINGS

But credit ratings agency Fitch said in April that further investment or acquisitions by SOCAR would result in "a significant and sustained deterioration of credit metrics (which) would be negative for the ratings". Fitch's rating in April was BBB-.

In March 2013, SOCAR placed a $1 billion 10-year Eurobond with 4.75 percent coupon to refinance part of its existing debt and for its capital investment programme. The company's debut Eurobond issue was in February 2012.

Gasymov dismissed concerns over increasing SOCAR's debt.

"There are no risks for Azerbaijan over financing of these projects, because the state is behind them and we have a high international rating," he said, adding that SOCAR planned to borrow funds mainly in export-import banks abroad.

Fitch cut Azerbaijan's sovereign-credit grade outlook to BBB- earlier this month because the Caspian Sea nation raised spending as oil output declined.

Gasymov said the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the World Bank and some foreign commercial banks had already expressed interest in funding one of the projects -- construction of a new refinery at Aliaga in western Turkey, which is expected to be completed by 2016.

Azerbaijan's $34 billion state oil fund holds proceeds from oil contracts, oil and gas sales, transit fees and other revenues and uses investment proceeds to help finance social spending and infrastructure projects.

Apart from transfers to the Azeri state budget, it invests in real estate abroad and plans to spend about $1 billion on buying commercial property this year, mainly in Asia and Australia. (Writing by Margarita Antidze; editing by Elizabeth Piper and Keiron Henderson)
 

Mr. Fat Bear coming to town???

 

 

Sell in May and go away?

 

 

 

May 23 (Reuters) – The Osaka Securities Exchange on Thursday briefly suspended trade in Nikkei futures due to a steep drop as investors took profits following a recent sharp rally, after weak Chinese factory activity rattled investors.

The Nikkei share average slid as much as 6 percent to 14,682.05. The benchmark was last down 5.6 percent at 14,757.12, on track for it biggest one-day percentage drop in two years.

The broader Topix index was down 5.8 percent at 1,202.30, with volume already at record high with another 17 minutes before the closing bell

--------------------------

 

 

In Singapore, we are see some bloggers posting headlines like these ...

 

The day REITs and Dividend Stocks get slaughtered

 

Bloodbath all across the markets

 

Bear Is Here! Reits Down 5%! Japan Down 6%!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May be it is just ....

 

 

 

 

 

BTW, what is the right model in investing?

 

Wah! Uncle8888 wrote this in 25 Dec 2010

 

Two years+  of waiting ....

 

 

Read? Portfolio Management - Too much cash may become a problem

 

Read? Tadas Viskanta: "Cash is a Drug for most investors"

 

Uncle DOW so steady. Shed 12.67 points, or 0.08 percent

 

By: Justin Menza

                

Stocks closed modestly lower rebounding sharply in a volatile session as market participants weighed better U.S. economic data against the fears the Fed may soon start to curtail its bond buying.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 12.67 points, or 0.08 percent, to close at 15294.50, getting support from Hewlett-Packard's 17 percent surge. The company posted strong earnings which CEO Meg Whitman attributed the strong results to a better-than-expected performance in enterprise services and printing.

The S&P 500 shed 4.83 points, or 0.29 percent, to close at 1650.52, while the Nasdaq ended down 3.88 points, or 0.11 percent, to close at 3459.42.

The Dow was down as much as 127 points, while the S&P 500 was off 20 points at the lowest levels of the morning.

Global Markets Roiled by Nikkei's 7.3% Slide

Singapore shares closed 1.77 per cent lower, in line with regional bourses which dived following weak China manufacturing data. The STI fell 61.20 points to 3,393.17.

 

SINGAPORE: Stocks in Singapore closed 1.77 per cent lower on Thursday, in line with regional bourses which dived following weak China manufacturing data.
The Straits Times Index fell 61.20 points to end at 3,393.17.
Volume was 4.6 billion shares.
Losers led gainers 482 to 73.
ComfortDelGro ended 11.7 per cent lower at S$1.925 on news that the Singapore Labour Foundation was selling part of its stake in the company.
CapitaMall Trust was down 5.65 per cent at S$2.17, CapitaLand lost 2.66 per cent to S$3.66, while Golden Agri-Resources was steady at S$0.570.
DBS dropped 0.75 per cent to S$17.15 while Jardine Cycle and Carriage fell 2.5 per cent to S$46.86.

 

Financial markets around the world were roiled Thursday after Japanese stocks suffered their biggest slide since the country was hit by a devastating tsunami more than two years ago.

Several reasons have been blamed for the 7.3 percent fall in the Nikkei index to 14,483.98, including a spike in Japanese government bond yields and unexpectedly weak Chinese manufacturing figures.
Mixed messages from the U.S. Federal Reserve about when it may start withdrawing some of its monetary stimulus have also contributed to Thursday's retreat.

While Wednesday's written testimony to lawmakers in Congress from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared to signal that the central bank was not yet ready to change its super-easy monetary policy, subsequent comments—and the minutes of the last rate-setting meeting—triggered speculation that the pace of asset purchases could slow down.

Global Markets Slump
 

Fed tapering fears sparked today's global market selloff. Richard Hoey, BNY Mellon; Michelle Girard, RBS; and Ed Keon, Quantitative Management Associates, discuss.

Much of the recovery in global stock markets over the past few years has had its roots on the extra liquidity that's flown through financial markets as a number of central banks, particularly the Fed, have pursued stimulus programs.

"The mood has switched from greedy to fearful," said Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares, which was only around 70 points off its highest-ever close on Wednesday, was down 2.1 percent at 6,700. Germany's DAX, which has hit a series of all-time highs recently, tumbled 2.8 percent to 8,293 while the CAC-40 in France was 2.4 percent lower at 3,955.


U.S. stocks, which fell sharply Wednesday, were poised for more declines at the open. Dow futures were 1 percent lower while the broader S&P 500 futures fell 1.2 percent.

Those declines though are dwarfed by the scale of the reverse in Japan's Nikkei. Some sort of decline in global indexes had been anticipated following a run that's seen many post historic highs.

The Nikkei has been the best-performing major index this year, having risen around 45 percent—before Thursday's loss—to five-year highs. The Nikkei has been buoyed by the announcement of an aggressive monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan, which has piled the pressure on the yen. That development is a potential boon to the country's exporters and therefore to growth.

Many in the markets blamed the Nikkei's fall on the spike in the interest rate charged on country's benchmark 10-year bond to above 1 percent for the first time in a year. That unnerved investors at a time when Japan's already overburdened government finances are vulnerable to rises in interest rates.

The interest rate, or yield, later slipped back to about 0.9 percent.

The sell-off is a reminder of Japan's vulnerability as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to end two decades of stagnation with unprecedented monetary easing, increased government spending and reforms to make the world's No. 3 economy more competitive.


The level of Japan's debt is higher, relative to its economy, than even some of the crisis-stricken European countries. But because it is mostly owned by domestic investors, especially huge banks and insurance companies, the country's credit rating has remained steady. About a quarter of the national budget is interest payments on government debt.

Markets elsewhere in Asia sank sharply after a survey showed China's manufacturing contracted in May. HSBC said its preliminary Purchasing Managers Index fell to a seven-month low of 49.6 in May from April's 50.4. Numbers below 50 indicate that activity is contracting. Analysts had expected a more modest decline to 50.3.

The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.2 percent to 2275.67, its biggest fall in a month while the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index shed 0.7 percent to close at 1014.47.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slumped 2.5 percent to 22,669.68. South Korea's Kospi lost 1.2 percent to 1,969.19. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2 percent to 5,062.40.

There were big moves across a range of financial assets. In the currency markets, the yen was the main mover following the rise in Japanese yields. The yen has bounced back strongly, after falling to near five-year lows against the dollar on Wednesday. The dollar was trading 1.7 percent lower at 101.39 yen, having earlier fallen to a low of 100.86 yen.

Oil prices were under the kosh too amid concerns over the global growth environment—the benchmark New York rate was down $1.19 at $93.09 a barrel. Gold, however, was in demand as it benefited from its status as a haven at a time of uncertainty. It was up 1.3 percent at $1,385 an ounce.
The main debate now in the markets is whether Thursday's developments mark the end of the euphoria that has gripped many investors this year.

"The fact that the equity markets fell so hard on these headlines overnight indicates that perhaps investors have been guilty of too much exuberance in recent months," said Jane Foley, an analyst at Rabobank International.

DBS Bank named top brand in Singapore

 

 

DBS Bank has been ranked the most valuable brand in Singapore for the first time, coming ahead of Singapore Airlines, in Brand Finance's annual "Top 100 Singapore Brands" league table - PHOTO : SPH

DBS Bank has been ranked the most valuable brand in Singapore for the first time, coming ahead of Singapore Airlines, in Brand Finance's annual "Top 100 Singapore Brands" league table.

The bank moved up two places from its No 3 position in 2012, DBS said yesterday.

According to Brand Finance, DBS had the highest brand value growth over the last year of US$1.16 billion, which was a 50 per cent increase over its 2012 value. The bank's overall brand value has more than doubled in the past four years, rising from US$1.36 billion in 2009 to its current value of US$3.47 billion.

Said Karen Ngui, managing director and head of group strategic marketing and communications at DBS: "The significant growth in our brand value is a testament to the strides the bank has made, both in Singapore and around the region. In recent years, we have delivered strong earnings growth and are today the largest bank in South-east Asia and a leading Asian bank."

Samir Dixit, managing director of Brand Finance Asia Pacific, described DBS as "a great example" of a brand-focused business, where the brand plays a significant role in helping build the business while the organisation seeks to diversify its revenues away from its home market.

London-based Brand Finance is an independent brand strategy and valuation consultancy. The ranking incorporates data from all listed companies. Each brand is accorded a brand rating and a brand value.

STI 3,454.37 Up 10.47(0.30%)

 

Retirement Income for Life??? (12)

Read? Retirement Income for Life??? (9)


Read? Retirement Income for Life??? (11)


Like it or not.

One day, we must live on our retirement income for life.

See the diagram below:

Uncle8888 passed this copy of retirement planning worksheet to somebody.

After simulating with the retirement planning Excel worksheet, he told me that his initial assumption for his number is wrong. To retire comfortably with fair level of certainty of retirement income for life; he has to rework his number again and rethink his investment strategy to include growth.

Keppel Corporation: Sells 6.7% of Keppel REIT at S$1.555/unit

Keppel Corporation (KEP) announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Keppel Real Estate Investment Pte Ltd, has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Goldman Sachs (the placement agent) for the sale of 180m units of Keppel REIT (6.7% of total issued units of KREIT) for S$1.555/unit.


The aggregate cash consideration of S$279.9m took into account KREIT’s last transacted price of S$1.605/unit as at 20 May 2013 and the 30-day VWAP of S$1.5129.

This is at a premium to the book value and NTA/share of S$1.31 and S$1.28, respectively, as at 31 Mar 2013. Upon completion of the sale (expected 27 May), KEP’s interest in KREIT remains substantial (from 58.2% to 51.5%)

Biosensors Receives CE Mark Approval for BioMatrix NeoFlex™

 

0 May 2013 10:24 Biosensors International Group, Ltd. has announced CE Mark approval for BioMatrix NeoFlex, the latest addition to the BioMatrix family of drug-eluting stents. BioMatrix NeoFlex features a new advanced stent delivery system, improving pushability, trackability and crossability.

 

It also has a lower lesion entry profile than its predecessor. BioMatrix NeoFlex retains the same unique combination of abluminal biodegradable polymer coating, proprietary limus drug Biolimus A9 and flexible platform which has made the BioMatrix stent family an increasingly popular choice of DES in the global markets where it is available...

 

 

Sembcorp Signs Joint Venture Agreement with Takamul to Develop Centralised Utilities Facilities for a Major New Industrial Site in Oman

- Project extends the reach of Sembcorp's pioneering centralised utilities business and strengthens its presence in the Middle East

Muscat, OMAN, May 19, 2013 - Sembcorp Industries (Sembcorp) is pleased to announce that its newly-incorporated wholly-owned subsidiary, Sembcorp Utilities (Oman), has signed a joint venture agreement with Takamul Investment Company (Takamul), a subsidiary of Oman Oil Company, to develop centralised utilities facilities for the Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZ), a new major industrial and commercial hub that is set to be one of the world’s largest special economic zones.

Under the agreement, Takamul and Sembcorp’s 65-35 joint venture entity, Centralised Utilities Company (CUC), will serve as a one-stop provider of a range of centralised utilities such as power, steam, water, sewerage treatment and on-site logistics on a captive basis to multiple industrial customers in the Duqm SEZ in southern Oman. CUC’s customers will include anchor customer Oman Oil Company, which is developing a 230,000 barrels per day refinery targeted to begin operations in 2018 as well as a petrochemical complex on the site. CUC will have an initial share capital of OMR1 million (approximately S$3.2 million), of which Sembcorp’s 35% stake will be funded through internal resources.

Sembcorp and Takamul intend to invest in separate special purpose companies which will develop and own facilities supplying CUC with energy, water and other on-site logistics. Operations and maintenance of the facilities will be undertaken by CUC. Sembcorp and Takamul are currently working on the terms and details of the special purpose companies.

This concept of a centralised utilities model will be the first in Oman. This project builds on Sembcorp’s considerable expertise and operating experience in this field. The company is a pioneer in centralised utilities. Under this unique model, multiple customers are offered an integrated supply of energy, water and on-site logistics produced by centralised facilities. By outsourcing critical utilities to Sembcorp, companies can focus on their core business and save on investment and operating costs. They can also be assured of reliable solutions which meet stringent environmental standards. From its beginnings in Singapore’s petrochemical hub, Jurong Island, this model has been successfully replicated in key industrial sites internationally. Including Duqm, Sembcorp’s centralised utilities model has now been implemented in 10 sites across Singapore, the UK, China and the Middle East. The company also lends its expertise to develop local resources in markets where it operates through skills and knowledge transfer programmes.

The signing of the joint venture agreement took place in Muscat today between His Excellency Nasser bin Khamis Al Jashmi, Chairman of Oman Oil Company, and Tang Kin Fei, Sembcorp’s Group President & CEO. The ceremony was witnessed by Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Law, K Shanmugam.

Mr Tang said, “We are very honoured to be selected by Takamul as their centralised utilities partner for this important new SEZ at Duqm. As the pioneer in one-stop outsourced energy, water and on-site logistics for multiple companies in energy-intensive industrial hubs, Sembcorp is in a good position to support the growth of the Duqm SEZ. We look forward to working closely with Takamul in making CUC a success. We also look forward to growing Sembcorp’s business in Oman as well as the Middle East, a target region for future growth for our Group.”

His Excellency Nasser bin Khamis Al Jashmi said, “This is a significant step in a very positive direction. The CUC will contribute to His Majesty’s vision of developing Duqm as a major national and international hub supporting the economic development of Oman. We are happy that Takamul and Sembcorp have joined forces and together we are confident of a very successful outcome.”

“Sembcorp was selected through a very extensive evaluation process of a number of utilities providers, because of their considerable expertise and operating experience in this field,” Nabil Al-Ghassani, CEO of Takamul, added.

Strategically located along the Gulf of Oman with a long coastline running along the Arabian Sea, Duqm has been targeted for development as a major maritime gateway for trade in crude oil from the Gulf, and as an important industrial and commercial hub. With a land area of 1,777 square kilometres and an 80-kilometre coastline, the Duqm SEZ will rank as the largest SEZ in the Middle East and North Africa region and one of the largest in the world. It will be administered, regulated and developed by the Duqm Special Economic Zone Authority, a financially and administratively independent government entity. Encompassing a sea port, city centre, industrial zone, tourism zone, logistics centre and an education and training zone, all supported by a multimodal transport system connecting the SEZ to nearby regions, the development of the SEZ is expected to take place in three phases from now until 2025.

Sembcorp’s presence in Duqm will mark its second project in Oman. Earlier today, Sembcorp celebrated the official opening of its first operation in Oman, the Salalah Independent Water and Power Plant. The largest and most efficient plant of its kind in the Dhofar governorate, the plant plays a major role in meeting the region’s growing power and water needs. It supplies 445 megawatts of power and 15 million imperial gallons (69,000 cubic metres) per day of desalinated water to the Government of Oman’s wholly-owned Oman Power and Water Procurement Company under a 15-year power and water purchase agreement.

The signing of the joint venture agreement with Takamul is not expected to have a material impact on the earnings per share and net asset value per share of Sembcorp Industries for the current financial year.

 

Believing Bullshit! (2)

Just For Thinking ...



Read? Believing Bullshit!


The day Uncle8888 finally stopped Believing Bullshit!


Some time we ourselves are to be blamed for our own lack of commonsense and stupidity in Believing Bullshit and committing deadly investment sins.


Deadly Investment Sin #2

The "Guru" belief: if I can't predict the market, there's someone somewhere who can - and all I need to do is find him.

Deadly Investment Sin #6

The "System" belief: somebody, somewhere has developed a system - some arcane refinement of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, computerised trading, Gann triangles, or even astrology - that will guarantee investment profits.



But, the moment we woke up from our own stupidity; we will realise it can't be like that.

He or she can make thousands and millions of dollars by clicking here and there in the stock market; but have to play dirty trick and spent hours talking and explaining just to convince 20 to 30 naive people to pay $X,XXX for their trading course.

Doesn't make sense. Right?


Read? Get Rich Courses or Coaching? - II

Cars??? Might be the most expensive, under-utilised and depreciating assets for many car owners in Singapore!

Just For Laugh ...

Cars???


Might be the most expensive, under-utilised and depreciating assets for many car owners in Singapore!


Why?

Do you believe most of the cars in Singapore spent 60%, 70% or 80% of their 10-years lifespan depreciating their asset value at car parks?

No?

Capital Appreciation through Capital Preservation

The late Phil Fisher was one of the great investors of all time and the author of the classic book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. Fisher started his money management firm, Fisher & Co., in 1931 and over the next seven decades made tremendous amounts of money for his clients. For example, he was an early investor in semiconductor giant Texas Instruments TXN. Fisher also purchased Motorola MOT in 1955, and in a testament to long-term investing, held the stock until his death in 2004.

"Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" - is a MUST READ!






"Capital Appreciation through Capital Preservation" - Phil Fisher


Does Uncle8888's Pillow Stocks Strategy has the similar effect of capital appreciation through capital preservation?

Firstly, Return of Capital.

Secondly, Good Yield.

Lastly, Capital appreciation

Read? Pillow Stocks Strategy (2)


First, don't lose your Capital and then grow your Money Tree.

Money will just drop from the Money Tree twice or once a year.

What else can we ask for in our retirement life?