Stock picking is part science, part art, part luck, part intuition, and always uncertain - "not precisely knowing."

A while ago I could have been convinced that if I put in a lots of effort into FA , TA and watching the market closely to gain knowledge, skills, market view, and a lots of experience, and with intelligence would produce some good returns from the stock market.

But, while the intelligence and experience will help me avoid unnecessary risks, apply money management, reduce day-to-day emotional stress, it doesn't assure me of the desired returns from the market. The market does whatever it wants, rational or irrational, it's just the market. It is always uncertain and not precisely knowing


Who are those that really move the market up and down? This is the mass of market watchers with either plenty of money, plenty of shares on hand, or plenty of guts. Once these masses rush in or rush out, prices will move drastically in either direction, and then after that the news will come out to explain and justify these price movement.

There is no proven method of detecting the forces and magnitude of these market watchers. TA can only show us after these forces have swept over, and often it may be too late for the poor chaps like us to get in. If we are lucky to be on the right side, we survive and profit from it, otherwise, we will be agonising, doubting our intelligence again, and questioning why are we so foolish again and again. Some will give up and turn to another bunch of TA gurus to seek for another holy grail.

Perhaps, only those truly professionals or the market sharks have such capabilities to drive the market and profit from it, but definitely not for ordinary investors/traders, we can't. These truly professionals or the market sharks are not your fathers or mothers. They consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth.

So, I've learned to accept the market as it is, a reality. It's never going to be what I think it should be, but I can still use my insights to reduce my risks of running into financial stress and still have time or money to go fishing.