As retail investors we can conservatively count our chickens before they are hatched. Not only we can conservatively count our chickens; we can even set Goal to achieve them despite not having any control over the market. We just need Process and War Chest full of bullets to achieve that Goal. How important is our War Chest i.e. full of bullets?
It doesn't matters! Don't take it too seriously! This you must understand it seriously; then it doesn't matters whether to escape or to achieve. Once you have wealth formula in your good hand; you are okay!
Do you happen to know any investment bloggers in Singapore who have made their first million from the stock market way before they made their first million from their job? Post their blog link here! Read? Climbing your investing or corporate ladder? (4)
CW8888: Few more trading days to go before October Effect ended.
Stocks plummeted on Wednesday as a sharp drop in tech shares and worries about corporate earnings added fuel to this month's steep pullback. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 608.01 points at 24,583.42 and erased all of its gains for 2018. The S&P 500 dropped 3.1 percent to 2,656.10 and also turned negative for the year. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.4 percent to 7,108.40— entering correction territory — as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet all traded lower.
"An increasingly murky macro picture is clouding the 2019 earnings outlook leaving investors to largely shrug off a solid start to the third quarter earnings season," said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell. "While valuations have certainly come down in recent weeks, at 16 times forward earnings for the Russell 1000 index, they aren't in the bargain basement by any means, especially if earnings growth slows more than expected next year."
Stocks have taken a beating this month. The Dow has dropped 7.1 percent in October, while the S&P 500 has pulled back 8.9 percent. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has tumbled 11.7 percent.
Netflix tumbled 9.4 percent as investors second-guessed valuations for the once high-flying video streamer. Facebook and Alphabet both fell more than 5 percent, while Apple dropped 3.4 percent. AT&T, meanwhile, dropped more than 8.1 percent after releasing its quarterly results.
Worries about a slowing economy under pressure from rising interest rates grew after the Commerce Department said new home sales fell to a two-year low. The data also hit homebuilder stocks.The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) dropped 3.5 percent.
"The housing numbers were not good," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "There's a lot of uncertainty heading into the end of the year. It just feels like people feel more comfortable spending short-term rather than long term."
Bank shares fell on fears of slowing growth for mortgage and other loans. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) dropped 4.1 percent. Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup both pulled back more than 1.5 percent. Bank of America's stock dropped 3.1 percent.
SINGAPORE: Temasek Holdings' first public bond offer for retail investors was more than eight times subscribed, said the Singapore state investment firm on Tuesday (Oct 23) after the close of the offer. Valid applications of around S$1.68 billion were received for S$200 million worth of bonds offered to the public, said Temasek. CW : Hmm ... lots of cash not going to the stock market to invest? So many retail investors/savers prefer Return of Capital than Return on Capital.
Where should we honestly and diligently focus before reaching FI, FIRE or FIRe? If more investment bloggers in Sinagpore are upfront and more transparent to show the their ratio of their earned income, saving vs net investment gains up to date. It is quite clear where should we focus once we see that picture? Invest/trade to achieve or escape? Earn more to achieve or escape? Some time; Uncle8888 feels that too many investment bloggers in Singapore have over rated on the investing and not on the earning part. Earn more then only we can work on the saving part to invest well.
In long-term investing, your ACCOUNT SIZE really MATTERS - CW8888
With zero divestment income from stocks; 2018 will end as follows against historical data points and another year of under performing as investment blogger. Achieving 8.2% yield on Own Capital in 2018 - Under-perform!
How much endurance do you have as retail investors? Market timing is as important as time in market as both timing are NOT mutually exclusive. You have already win or lose at your entry price. Your entry price just needed to be verified months or years farther down the road. Who are those people who tells you that market timing is not a critical success factor?
It is NOT until; you have learnt and discover what works for you in the stock market; you are more likely to continue to lose money in the stock market. It is not much different from playing Mahjong! You lose to others who are winning and better at the Money Game!
Walau! 45. M1 is not a new business for Keppel. Keppel was one of the founding shareholders in 1994, before its telephone service was launched in 1997, and the IPO in 2002. We have worked with and supported M1 for over 20 years, and it has yielded very good returns. 46. Keppel has invested S$170 million over the years, and in return received S$737 million of dividends and proceeds from the sale of some shares. In addition, Keppel’s present 19.33% stake, held through Keppel T&T, had a market value of S$291 million as at 21 September 2018, before we announced our offer. 47. In short, M1 has been a good investment for Keppel. We believe that with the necessary transformation, it can continue to be a valuable asset for the Group. But we have no illusion that the transformation journey will be quick or easy. It will take at least a few years. In the meantime, subject to the approval of IMDA, we are offering a compelling premium to minority shareholders of M1, who are not prepared to wait and bear the related risks, to realise their investment in M1 upfront.
No re-investing of dividends from Kep Corp which was bought in Sep 2001 at $1.32 till now. All dividends were refunded through CPFIS back to CPF OA to earn 2.5% compound interest since Dec 2001. After 17 years, ROC based on total compounded interests from Dec 2001 to Dec 2018 = 135% Average ROC per year = 7.9% The beauty of compounding will only happen near the tail end and then it will make the Average looks attractive. Compounding interest separates the rich from the broke. The great Albert Einstein once said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn't … pays it.” The 1st decade of dividends sitting in CPF OA earning 2.5% return was boring! Any difference from ugly duckling or ugly caterpillar?
CW8888: Did you get your FI, FIRE or FIRe number right based on your assumption?
SINGAPORE: Singaporeans will be living longer lives in 2040, according to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
The result of the study released on Wednesday (Oct 17), ranks Singapore third in the world, with an average life expectancy of 85.4 years in the year 2040.
Those living in Spain are forecast to have the longest life expectancy, at 85.8 years, followed closely by Japan at 85.7 years.
The United States is forecast to drop the most in ranking among high-income countries, from 43 in 2016, to 64 in 2040. Average lifespans in the US is only expected to increase 1.1 years.
Overall, all countries are "likely to experience at least a slight increase in lifespans", says the report.
The increase in Singaporeans' life expectancy can be attributed to its health system and how key health issues are addressed, says the study on health and life expectancy.
“The future of the world’s health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories,” said Dr. Kyle Foreman, Director of Data Science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and lead author on the study. “But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.”
The top six health drivers that explain most of the future trajectory for premature mortality are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, tobacco use, alcohol use and air pollution.
CAUSES OF PREMATURE DEATH
The study, published on Tuesday in the international medical journal The Lancet, projects a significant increase in deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, and lung cancer, as well as worsening health outcomes linked to obesity. In 2016, the top 10 causes of premature death in Singapore were ischemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, stroke, colon and rectum cancer, suicide, chronic kidney disease, liver cancer, and breast cancer.
In 2040, however, the leading causes are expected to be lower respiratory infections, ischemic heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease, lung cancer, chronic kidney disease, liver cancer, colon and rectum cancer, stroke, hypertensive heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases.
ALTERNATIVE 'BETTER' AND 'WORSE' SCENARIOS POSSIBLE
The study is unprecedented in scope, Dr Foreman said, and provides more robust statistical modeling and more comprehensive and detailed estimates of risk factors and diseases than previous forecasts from the United Nations and other population studies institutes.
IHME researchers leveraged data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to produce forecasts and alternative “better” and “worse” scenarios for life expectancy and mortality due to 250 causes of death for 195 countries and territories.
Researchers produced forecasts of independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income, and years of education, along with 79 independent drivers of health such as smoking, high body mass index, and lack of clean water and sanitation. They then used information on how each of these independent drivers affects specific causes of death to develop forecasts of mortality.
“Inequalities will continue to be large,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.
“The gap between the ‘better’ and ‘worse’ scenarios will narrow but will still be significant. In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely. But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet.”
In a “worse” scenario, life expectancy decreases in nearly half of all countries over the next generation. Specifically, 87 countries will experience a decline, and 57 will see an increase of one year or more. In contrast, in the “better” scenario, 158 countries will see life expectancy gains of at least five years, while 46 nations may see gains of 10 years or more.
CW8888: For those who can trek; you can consider local trekking as local tourist especially when you have just recently retired. A sure way to pass your time quickly while you transit from your full-time job routine to something else. You have days, weeks or months to think about it! Nicholas Walton : A 53km walk from Tuas to Tanah Merah ferry port in one day shows Singapore in a new light.
Every time when Uncle8888 reads something like this : Diversify, diversify, diversify . Don't be Panda or Koala in the stock market; you will be become extinct very soon! Chun bo; after more than 17 years with only Singapore socks in SGX; Uncle8888 still haven't become extinct! It is never about the Method! There is no such thing as the right Method for anyone. It is about your own outcome. You choose your own Poison and let your own experience and outcome determine your own right Method!
Can pictures really hint us on what to do? Take risks and reap rewards or remain status quo and wait for Eastern Wind to win the battle! It is all about the price to pay; the risks we take and the rewards we reap. How bad is our status quo?
What sort of investing strategies is this? Just a few Warriors out there at the battlefield fighting hard to bring back food yield at about 8% to feed an army of Monks doing nothing but chanting for the next Bear market to come at the Temple of Capital
Read? Seafood Soup This time is the right stall at Blk 127 coffeeshop. Fish soup and rice sold out so you eat whatever is available when your turn come. Sliced pork, pork ball and fish maw Ee Mee soup with one slice of fish.
I suppose you’ve heard by now that the stock market DJIA, -2.13% SPX, -2.06% dropped big-time Wednesday. Thursday wasn’t so great, either.
As usual, a move like this has caused quite a bit of angst, worry, and pandemonium on social media and in the news. People are downright fearful and upset.
Want to know how I responded as an early retiree? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Oh, I worked out, took a walk in an early Colorado snow, and played some video games. But I didn’t panic. In fact, I didn’t even know the market was heading down until I saw it later on Twitter TWTR, +0.85% . I don’t watch the market much and I’m certainly not living my life based on whether it goes up or down. On a daily basis I give it less thought than what I’m having for dinner that night.
So how did I get to the point where I don’t care about the market? And more important, how can you get to that point and retire early no matter what the market does? Well, that’s what I want to share with you today.
Before I get started, let me say that much of this article might seem like I’m boasting. I’m hopeful you’ll read it as it’s meant: as advice from a good friend who’s been there and who’s willing to tell you the truth even if it stings a bit.
This is the one (yes, ONE) thing you need to do to retire early without fear that a market drop will kill your finances:
You must build in some margin of safety into your retirement plan. And the more margin and number of ways you build it in, the better.
To explain a bit, you need to develop several efforts that will protect you in case something bad happens—you get sick, your property is destroyed or stolen, you get sued, or the market drops big time. Any of these (and more) can happen to you in retirement. If you’re prepared for them in advance, you will sleep as sound as a baby despite the challenges.
There are lots of options for creating margins of safety, but here are the five most useful.
1. Invest your assets to generate multiple streams of income CW8888's version is Three Taps Solution model for sustainable retirement income for income
Retirement is less about building assets and living on them than it is about generating a livable income in retirement.
To illustrate this, let’s assume you need $50,000 a year to live on in retirement. Which of these two options do you think is better?
• You have $1. 25 million in investments which you can withdraw at 4% a year to get to $50,000.
• You have $600,000 invested in rental real estate that throws off $50,000 in income per year.
Now you could argue that the first is “better” because you own more, but the fact is that you make $50,000 in both scenarios. It’s the income that’s most important, not the size of the assets.
Given that you want/need income, isn’t it better to have multiple sources coming in? Of course it is.
This is why I have structured our assets to include income from rental real estate and dividends in addition to being able to draw from assets. In fact, if you invest correctly you can earn enough off your assets that you never need to draw them down (which is where we are). In this case, the market’s performance is a non-factor. As long as the income keeps flowing, you’re fine no matter the value of your assets.
In addition, by having multiple streams flowing in, you know that if one goes away or is severely constrained, you have others to pick up the slack. One is good, two is better, three even better, and so on.
2. Create additional income separate from investments
Besides arranging assets to churn off income, consider other ways to grow income. Developing a side hustle is a great option. Two amazing benefits to developing a side hustle include:
• Helping you get to retirement much faster. In fact, a side hustle can be the vital part to allowing you to retire in 10 years or less.
• Providing yet another stream of income in retirement so you both earn more and have an even more diversified sources of income.
And if you pick the right side hustle, one that you enjoy, you can earn extra income and it will never feel like work.
After a year of retirement I bought a business and can truly say I’ve enjoyed working on it. It gives me a fun, creative outlet and something to challenge me a couple of hours every day. It’s not burdensome and yet it does provide a need to keep active mentally. After all, you do not want to retire then crawl into a hole. This side business allows me to keep “in the game” without being too taxing. It also provides a very nice extra income.
3. Build a bigger nest egg than you need
One of the biggest issues early retirees have with a market drop is with a situation like this:
• You need $50,000 per year in income from your assets in retirement.
• You have $1.25 million in assets, so at 4% you can withdraw $50,000 per year.
• Then your assets fall to $1.1 million and now you have $44,000 per year.
The problem here is that the retiree is playing it too close with their funds. Everything has to go right for the numbers to work.
Here’s a news flash: everything NEVER goes right. Something always happens. Income is lower than expected. Expenses are higher than expected. And so on.
It’s easy to combat this by saving more than enough for your needs. Consider this scenario:
• You need $50k per year in income from your assets in retirement.
• You have $1,750,000 in assets, so at 4% you can withdraw $70,000 per year, more than enough to cover your spending and add to your next egg.
• Then your assets fall to $1.25 million and now you have $50,000 per year.
You’re still OK even after your assets fell by almost 30%.
See how this margin of safety can be so powerful?
4. Earn some extra income
CW8888: OMG! This is low income job! Even lower than landscape and security jobs. Okay. okay.
Cannot like that and anyhow compare to full-time or part-time employment class of job. Understand that clear difference between part-time and free-lance job:-)
Once you retire you’ll find that the thought of going back to work is close to being as painful as pulling out your fingernails. It’s just something you don’t want to do.
But if push comes to shove, you could go back to work either as part of your retirement plan or as a safety measure in case the market leaves you with a shortfall.
A simple $15 an hour job for two days a week (16 hours) will earn you $12,480 a year. At 4%, that’s equal to investments of $312,000.
This is why having a part-time job (or a side hustle) is so great for retirement. Which is easier, working two days a week or saving an extra $312,000? I think you know the answer.
And the truth is that most people retiring early or even considering it could earn significantly more than $15 an hour. We’re talking teachers, business people, doctors, and so forth with many valuable and marketable skills. It would quite easy for them to earn much more than $15 per hour, making this suggestion even more beneficial.
If you don’t want to go back to work, you can always sell some things to provide temporary income relief. Most American households are so crammed with stuff that having a sale would actually make life more pleasant.
I walk by homes where people park outside their garages for the simple fact that the garages are filled with “stuff”. And these are 3,000 square foot homes. When you fill up a house that big with so much stuff that it takes over your garage, you need to sell some stuff. And don’t even get me started on those who rent storage units long term to keep stuff they will never use.
Sell your stuff, declutter your life, and make some extra money along the way to tide you over.
5. Cut back on spending
Even a retirement budget can be trimmed in most cases, so if the market collapses and your income suffers, get out the chopping block.
The most likely categories for cutting back include travel, entertainment, eating out, and the like—all the discretionary expenses that many Americans consider needs but are really luxuries.
And if things get really drastic, you can permanently lower some large expenses by downsizing your home. You’ll save on so many expenses that almost any market drop can be compensated for.
So you can see how each of these suggestions can provide a margin of safety to protect you when bad things happen. Even better than having one of them is having multiple ones so you have backup plan after backup plan. That’s how you can live in retirement peace and not even pay attention to the market.
How to get margins of safety
This raises the question, how do you get these margins of safety? Here are some thoughts:
First of all, it’s personal finance 101. You need to earn as much as you can, save as much as you can, and invest for growth initially and then income. I break this down into the simple acronym E-S-I. Do these for 20 to 30 years and you’ll be set.
Second, consider developing a side hustle along the way. Even an extra $10,000 per year can make a big difference. If you don’t want to “trouble” of creating a side business, consider getting a part-time job when you retire to help ease the financial pressure a bit.
Third, as you get closer to retirement (5-10 years out or so), look for ways to invest that generate higher returns than the 4% withdrawal rate allows. Real estate is a great example of this.
Finally, consider postponing retirement a year or two if it allows you to accumulate extra assets for a needed buffer.
If you do these things now in preparation for retirement, you, too, can then ignore the stock market drops and withstand many other calamities that might come your way.
Then you can spend more time on the really important stuff—like wondering what’s for dinner.
Stocks fell sharply on Thursday in a second straight scary day on Wall Street as investors dumped equities around the globe because of fears of rapidly rising interest rates, a possible global economic slowdown and overly ambitious tech valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 545.91 points lower at 25,052.83, bringing its two-day losses to more than 1,300 points. The S&P 500 dropped 2.1 percent to 2,728.37 and posted its sixth straight decline. The broad index also closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. The Nasdaq Composite pulled back 1.3 percent to 7,329.06 and briefly entered correction territory at its lows on Thursday. The Dow fell as much as 698.97 points at its lows of the day. The indexes bounced after a report said President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet at next month's G-20 summit, briefly giving traders hope a full-blown trade war with the country could be avoided. CW8888: October Effect really arh in 2018? October, a month known for major market sell-offs in the past, has been a brutal month for investors so far. The S&P 500 has lost 6 percent during the month so far and is now higher by just 2 percent for 2018.
Stocks sank on Wednesday as a steep decline in tech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates sent Wall Street on pace for its worst day in eight months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 831.83 points lower at 25,598.74 as Intel and Microsoft fell more than 3.5 percent each. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 4 percent to 7,422.05.
Every household is different and relative! How much is enough is definitely relative? Read your Past and forecast your Forecast. So far; Uncle8888 still prefer this model after searching through the cyber world and NLB bookshelves on adequacy for retirement planning. Read? Is Your Nest Egg Holding Up?
The Balance Sheet A more sophisticated way to measure the success of a retirement portfolio is the one used by large pension plans. You compare what's called the actuarial present value of your assets and liabilities. The twist: Instead of looking at current assets and liabilities, you look at the value of all your expenses in retirement as a lump sum as compared with the value of all your assets as a lump sum.
It is likes saying all retail investors CAN be good investors! After spending years in the market; some will realize they are probably richer if they choose to save or just top up their CPF accounts regularly. Sometime; Uncle8888 doesn't know how to say to them! Also cannot tell them don't invest lor! Sigh! When you started investing significantly at different stage of a market cycle; it is quite difficult to achieve good investment outcome.
Why do we need to think so hard to justify FIRE or FIRe? The purpose of FIRE or FIRe is to take back full control of our time from our ex-employers/jobs to re-allocate our time according to our own purposes. Our own purposes may be or may NOT be meaningful to others. Why bother or care? At your Own time. Own target. Fire or don't fire! It is up to you! That is the beauty of FIRE or FIRe! Can you appreciate it?
Rather than planning on working longer to set yourself up for your golden years, start saving more money now, he says: "The way you get the best return on retirement — I call this ROR — is you save, save, save, save, save … And you retire in your early 60s, able to afford it, and then you really go have the best years of your life." Settling down in your 60s means "having the energy to finally do what you want to do when you want to do it," says Bach. "Will you have energy at 75? Yes, you will. But guess what? It won't be the same as you do when you're 65. Sixty to 75 are the 'go go years' in retirement; 75 to 85, it's the 'slower go' years; 85 to 100, it's often the 'won't go' years."
Yesterday; one ex- colleague at wedding lunch said that his mobile phone at back pocket was pick-pocketed at JB City Square Mall without knowing when it happened. He last remembered leaving the restaurant after lunch and took his mobile phone on the table to his back pocket and walked out. He still in self-denial and said KSL Mall may be safer! Don't go to City Square anymore. Walau!
Last updated : 15 Sep 2018
I am 62 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and finally retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee on 1 Oct 2016.
Single household income since 1995 with three children. Eldest son and daughter are now working and youngest son still in his 3nd year Uni in SUTD.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I am now executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038.
Disclaimer: Stock trading involves significant risks. Create Wealth trader is not a licensed Investment Adviser and will not be responsible for any losses which you incurred. You are advised to always do your own homework before making any trading decision.