These techniques can help you gauge how your portfolio is doing in retirement
Dec. 8, 2013 4:32 p.m. ET
When you're saving for retirement, it's
fairly easy to measure your progress. You compare your actual return
with your expected rate of return and look at the total value of the
portfolio. If you aren't getting your expected rate of return—and if
your portfolio's projected value falls short of your target—well, your
plan is
But what happens when you're living
in retirement? How do you measure success or failure then? There are, of
course, several methods for doing so. But a recent survey by Russell
Investments, a Seattle-based asset manager, shows that financial
advisers don't agree on the best approach—and that some could be flying
blind when assessing your nest egg. Here are a few techniques to
consider:
But it has its shortcomings. For one, investors and advisers develop an "unhealthy focus on chasing yield at all costs to get the income stream they need," Mr. Greenshields says. What's more, this method may not necessarily match an investor's actual spending needs very well, nor does it address the risk of possibly outliving your assets; odds are high that you will have to spend down principal over the course of your retirement—especially if you live past your life expectancy.
Capital Preservation
It's
a simple approach, says
Rod Greenshields,
a chartered financial analyst and consulting director for
Russell. You're trying to preserve principal and only spend interest and
dividends. So unless your plan calls for dipping into principal, having
less money in your portfolio at year-end than you did on Jan. 1
suggests your plan isn't working.
In Russell's survey, 34% of advisers—the largest group—favor this approach.
But it has its shortcomings. For one, investors and advisers develop an "unhealthy focus on chasing yield at all costs to get the income stream they need," Mr. Greenshields says. What's more, this method may not necessarily match an investor's actual spending needs very well, nor does it address the risk of possibly outliving your assets; odds are high that you will have to spend down principal over the course of your retirement—especially if you live past your life expectancy.
"Attempting
to assess the success of a retirement-income strategy is much more
complex than relatively simplistic portfolio goals," says
David Blanchett,
head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management,
a Chicago-based provider of advice and managed accounts.
Projected Rate of Return
Here,
you review whether your portfolio's actual return met or exceeded your
required return. Fall short of that goal, and the income plan is a
failure.
But again, simplicity isn't
necessarily a virtue. "You might be too tempted to increase risk if you
pay too much attention to portfolio return," says
Michael Finke,
a professor and coordinator of the doctoral program in personal
financial planning at Texas Tech University. "And risk means a higher
chance of both success and failure."
The Balance Sheet
A
more sophisticated way to measure the success of a retirement portfolio
is the one used by large pension plans. You compare what's called the
actuarial present value of your assets and liabilities. The twist:
Instead of looking at current assets and liabilities, you look at the
value of all your expenses in retirement as a lump sum as compared with
the value of all your assets as a lump sum.
Take
a married couple where the husband, 69, and the wife, 68, have an
after-tax portfolio of $1 million, an annual Social Security benefit of
$25,000 with a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment, and a pension of $10,000 a
year with a 75% survivorship benefit and no inflation adjustment. That
income stream's present value would be $588,686. Add that to the value
of their portfolio ($1 million), and you get $1,588,686 in total assets,
in today's dollars.
On the liability
side, if the couple wants to spend $60,000 a year in retirement, after
taxes, with a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment, they would need $1,402,156
in today's dollars to fund their living expenses.
In
essence, investors with a surplus are in good shape, while those with a
deficit don't have enough to pay their expenses in retirement. The
latter likely would have to adjust their savings, investments or
projected expenses.
Few advisers—just
15% in Russell's survey—use this method, but Mr. Greenshields suggests
that it works the best. A balance sheet uses today's market information
and today's interest rates as a starting point, he says.
"Our
take on this approach relies on using current interest-rate curves,
specifically Treasury yield curves to reflect a 'risk-free' rate. Those
are about the most robust predictions of the future you can get."
A Mix of Methods
Still
other experts say you shouldn't use any single method to assess your
retirement portfolio, but rather a variety of methods. "I believe there
are a number of measures, all based on forward-looking expectations,"
says
Harold Evensky,
president of Evensky & Katz Wealth Management, a Miami-based
financial-planning firm, and an adjunct professor at Texas Tech
University. Those measures include an investor's goals, taxes and
economic expectations. And your portfolio would be a success if it lasts
beyond your household's projected life span.
Adds
Morningstar's Mr. Blanchett: "The obvious problem with a single metric
is that retirement is something that is going to be 'experienced' over a
relatively long time horizon, which could exceed 30 years for a
couple."
No matter what approach you use, it is critical to gauge the performance of your portfolio continually.
"Measuring
success shouldn't be a static concept but an ongoing process," Mr.
Evensky says. And rules of thumb, he adds, are hard to come by.
"Investors' lives are far too unique, markets far too uncertain,
and—most frightening—politicians exist."
Mr. Powell is the editor of Retirement Weekly and a columnist at MarketWatch.com. He can be reached at encore@wsj.com.
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