I started serious Investing Journey in Jan 2000 to create wealth through long-term investing and short-term trading; but as from April 2013 my Journey in Investing has changed to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Since 2017 after retiring from full-time job as employee; I am moving towards Investing Nirvana - Freehold Investment Income for Life investing strategy where 100% of investment income from portfolio investment is cashed out to support household expenses i.e. not a single cent of re-investing!

It is 57% (2017 to Aug 2022) to the Land of Investing Nirvana - Freehold Income for Life!


Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Friday, 20 September 2013

S’poreans want to semi-retire at 57: Poll

MOST people in Singapore dream of semi-retirement, according to a survey by HSBC.

But some semi-retirees have to keep working part-time for financial reasons, it found.

The bank's study on retirement, Life After Work?, found that 61 per cent of respondents working in Singapore plan on semi-retirement - if they have not already achieved this.

The study defines a semi-retired person as someone who works fewer hours but keeps up some paid work as retirement age approaches. Those who plan to semi-retire expect to do so at the age of 57, before retiring from all paid employment at 60.

Reasons for semi-retiring are largely positive, with 57 per cent wanting to keep active and 43 per cent doing so because they enjoy their work.

But others do it out of necessity - 30 per cent cannot afford to retire fully and 23 per cent still need to work to bridge a shortfall in their retirement income.

Some are not even sure if they can retire at all - 17 per cent expect to work their entire lives.

People without spouses are particularly vulnerable: 30 per cent of those who are divorced or separated say they do not think they can afford to retire.

The head of customer value management, retail banking and wealth management at HSBC Singapore, Mr Harmander Mahal, said: "Semi-retirement has unfortunately become the prevailing lifestyle for many who cannot afford to fully retire. Inflationary pressures, a rising cost of living and the desire to maintain one's pre-retirement lifestyle are driving people in Singapore to continue working."

He added that it is important for people to start planning and saving early so that they will have no retirement regrets.

But the survey showed that such lessons need reinforcement. Nine per cent of retirees here think that they have failed to prepare adequately for a comfortable retirement.

Asked what was the best financial advice they have ever had, the most popular answer is to start saving at an early age.

This was followed by saving a small amount regularly, developing a financial plan for the future and buying your own home as soon as you can afford to.

Those who have done their sums well expect to leave an inheritance. Among fully retired people, 70 per cent will leave an inheritance, with a median amount of around $473,000.

As for the source of their retirement income, Singaporeans are buying into the mantra of self-reliance. Savings form the largest proportion of the average retiree's income at 29 per cent, with investment income making up 18 per cent.

State pensions or benefits make up 21 per cent of the retirement income, lower than the global average of 37 per cent.

HSBC surveyed about 1,000 respondents in Singapore via an online survey

Thursday, 19 September 2013

Dow, S&P 500 end at record highs as Fed leaves stimulus intact

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied to record highs on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in a surprise to markets, decided against scaling back a stimulus program that has helped fuel Wall Street's rally of more than 20 percent this year.

Stocks were lower before the announcement, but after the Fed announced it would continue buying bonds at an $85 billion monthly pace for now, the Dow and S&P 500 indexes quickly climbed to all-time highs.

While equities jumped on the Fed's decision, questions remained how long the rally would last as the central bank expressed concerns about the economy's future growth with likely budget and debt limit battles in Washington to come.

Market participants had largely been expecting the central bank, after a two-day meeting of its policy-setting committee, to begin a withdrawal of the bond-buying program by about $10 billion a month.

"No taper, the market loves it. We will see if that lasts but boy, we are off to the races," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial in Waltham, Massachusetts.

"From a short-term stock market perspective it can be seen as a good thing because the market likes to see continued Fed stimulus. From a real economy standpoint, what it says is the Fed is actually more nervous about the economy than is generally perceived."

In a news conference following the announcement, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the plan is to maintain a highly accommodative policy, with the central bank looking to see if its basic outlook for the economy is confirmed. Only then would the U.S. central bank take the first step to remove the stimulus.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) rose 147.21 points or 0.95 percent, to 15,676.94, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 20.76 points or 1.22 percent, to 1,725.52 and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 37.942 points or 1.01 percent, to 3,783.641.

The S&P's previous closing high was 1,709.67 and the Dow's was 15,658.36, both on August 2.

About 580 stocks on the NYSE and Nasdaq hit new 52-week highs on Wednesday. About 325 of them hit their highs after the Fed announcement. Priceline.com Inc (PCLN) hit an intraday high of $1001, the first S&P 500 company in history to reach that landmark level. Shares in the online travel agency closed up 2.6 percent at $995.09.

The Fed also lowered its forecasts for economic growth. It now sees growth in a 2 percent to 2.3 percent range this year, down from 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent in its June estimates. The downgrade for next year was even sharper, 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent compared with 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent.

Separately, a White House official said Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen was the front runner to take over the top job at the U.S. central bank when Bernanke's term ends in January, the strongest indication yet of her likely nomination.

Wednesday, 18 September 2013

Keppel secures two FPSO contracts worth S$190 million

Keppel Shipyard Ltd (Keppel Shipyard) has secured two Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) conversion contracts from repeat customers worth a combined value of S$190 million. These contracts are from SBM Offshore N.V. (SBM Offshore) and M3nergy Offshore Limited (M3nergy Offshore).

Mr Michael Chia, Managing Director (Marine & Technology), Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O&M), said, "The award of these contracts from our repeat customers affirms their confidence in us. These contracts from experienced FPSO fleet owners and operators SBM Offshore and M3nergy bear testament to our commitment to quality conversion and upgrading services.

"Over the years, Keppel Shipyard has worked closely with customers worldwide to bring to the market a range of offshore production solutions. We will continue to ensure the success of our latest FPSO projects to value-add to the global offshore production market."

Keppel Shipyard's new conversion project for SBM Offshore is for the FPSO that will host the Stones ultra deepwater development by Shell in the Gulf of Mexico. Once installed, the vessel will be the deepest production facility in the world, as well as the deepest FPSO with a disconnectable buoy (Buoyant Turret Mooring or BTM).

The yard's work scope for the Stones project includes refurbishment and life extension works; upgrading of living quarters; fabrication and installation of the internal disconnectable buoy BTM system and topside module supports; as well as the installation and integration of topside modules.

The FPSO design has a processing facility capacity of 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 15 mmscfd of gas treatment and export. The converted FPSO will be able to store 800,000 barrels of crude oil and its total topsides weight will reach 7,000 tonnes.

Including the Stones FPSO, Keppel Shipyard has undertaken 20 major projects for SBM Offshore since 2000.

Meanwhile, Keppel Shipyard's second contract is from M3nergy Offshore to convert an FPSO for the Bukit Tua Field.

For this project, Keppel Shipyard will undertake refurbishment and life extension works; fabrication and installation of new structures, piping systems, spread-mooring system; upgrading of the living quarters; as well as the installation and integration of the topsides process modules.

Scheduled for completion in the second quarter of 2014, the FPSO has been chartered by PC Ketapang II Ltd for its operations in the Bukit Tua field, which is 35 kilometres north of Madura Island, offshore Indonesia.

The FPSO conversion contract for the Bukit Tua field in Ketapang Block, Indonesia, was awarded to the consortium PT Trasamudra Usaha Sejahtera - M3nergy Offshore Ltd. M3nergy Offshore is a subsidiary of M3nergy Berhad.

The FPSO will have a production capacity of up to 25,000 barrels per day of liquids and a storage capacity of up to 630,000 barrels.

The above contracts are not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

CW8888's estimated Order Book



Wall Street climbs on expectations for modest Fed taper

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will make only moderate changes to its stimulus that has been highly supportive of stocks and other assets at the conclusion of its two-day meeting.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee began meeting on Tuesday to discuss whether to trim its bond purchases, or quantitative easing. Many investors expect Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will announce a scale-back of purchases by $10 billion a month to $75 billion, while keeping rates close to zero.

"The ($10 billion) appears to be what investors are looking for, as long as the taper is not bigger than people were expecting the market will react positively," said Paul Mangus, head of equity research and strategy at Wells Fargo Private Bank in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"The Fed is very aware of how they believe investors will react. They've been very skillful about trying to manage expectations."

A statement with the FOMC's decision will be released on Wednesday afternoon, followed by a Bernanke news conference.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) rose 34.95 points or 0.23 percent, to 15,529.73, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 7.16 points or 0.42 percent, to 1,704.76 and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 27.853 points or 0.75 percent, to 3,745.699.

The S&P 500 closed above the key resistance level of 1,700 for the first to since August 5 and is 0.3 percent below its record high of 1,709.67.

U.S. consumer prices barely rose in August, but gains in rents and medical costs pointed to a stabilization in underlying inflation that could allow the Fed to scale back stimulus.

Adding to investor confidence, crude prices continued to fall as a deal averting a U.S.-led attack on Syria calmed fears of a Middle East oil supply disruption. (O/R)

Brent settled down 1.7 percent to $108.19 and is down 2.5 percent in the past two days. U.S. crude settled down 1.1 percent on the day at $105.42 a barrel.



Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Cut loss or Write it off???



Just For Thinking ...



Are you struggling with yourself constantly whether to cut loss or not?


One way to overcome your emotion and stop struggling any more.


Do you still have plenty of cash rotting in the bank as War Chest?

If yes, write it down to one cent per share and move on.

Now when you look at that stock again. It is a winning stock. Right?

Only when you run short of money, then start thinking about this "winning" stock. Cut loss for capital!

It is all in the Mind!






Blue chips no supersized return???



Read? The Scientific Approach to Achieving Double Digit Returns Using Value Investing



Never heard of Blue Chips Crisis Investing and Return of The King Investing???


Supersized Return? Why not?


Method, Money, Mind!










Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 117.88 points, or 0.77 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks and bonds on major markets rose on Monday after former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew from consideration to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading investors to believe U.S. monetary policy might stay looser for longer.

Signs of progress in reducing tensions in the Middle East, after a Russia-brokered deal on Syria's chemical weapons also helped to support stocks.

Summers' surprise decision on Sunday came just ahead of the Fed's policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank is expected to begin to scale back its asset purchases from the current pace of $85 billion a month.

With the withdrawal of Summers, investors wagered that U.S. monetary policy would stay easier for longer if the other leading candidate for Fed chair, Janet Yellen, the Fed's current vice chair, should get the job. Ben Bernanke's term as Fed chairman expires in January.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 117.88 points, or 0.77 percent, at 15,493.94. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 9.62 points, or 0.57 percent, at 1,697.61. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 4.34 points, or 0.12 percent, at 3,717.85.

The Nasdaq stock index rose for much of the session, but turned negative in afternoon trading, pressured by a 3.2 percent decline in Apple Inc shares. The Dow and S&P500 also ended off their highs of the session after President Barack Obama stood firm in warning Republicans in Congress he will not negotiate over an extension of the U.S. debt ceiling as part of a budget fight.

"We are still riding positively on the Summers announcement, however with the debt ceiling deadline less than a couple of weeks away, there will be heightened sensitivity to it," said Andre Bakhos, managing director at Janlyn Capital LLC in Bernardsville, New Jersey.

"We are still up and the market is still riding a wave higher and until there is something tangible to create a sense of fear, the trend remains solid."

Monday, 16 September 2013

New gas-fired power units registered, will start up soon

 
Latest capacity additions raise possibility of lower electricity prices

Keppel916
Keppel Merlimau Cogen's latest unit is its second new 420MW CCGT (following the one that it started up in September last year) - PHOTO: KEPPEL CORP

MORE new gas-fired power units of over 400 MW each will be starting up in the coming months, including those by Singapore's newest genco PacificLight Power, Tuas Power and Keppel Merlimau Cogen - bringing Singapore's total gas-fired generating capacity to more than 9,000 MW.

Such gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) - as opposed to older steam turbine units - have become the dominant source of power generation here, accounting for 86 per cent of total generating capacity.

The latest capacity additions will take total generating capacity to levels way above peak electricity demand here of around 6,600 MW, raising the possibility of lower electricity prices here.

Reporting the new additions, wholesale electricity market operator Energy Market Company (EMC) said that the three gencos had recently registered their new CCGTs with the National Electricity Market of Singapore (NEMS).

Sunday, 15 September 2013

Rising Fed Rate. Falling DOW???




Debt-free — and that, to me, is richness enough (Re-posted)


Recent hot topics on debt.

So it may be the right time to re-post one of my favourite articles relating to debts in Mar 2009

Read? debt-free — and that, to me, is richness enough


Who is the Other Twin Sister of Stop-loss who is not commonly known???




 
Read? Uncle8888 does not practise Stop Loss!









Who is the Other Twin Sister of Stop-loss who is not commonly known to retail traders or investors???



You are in some profit but when your stock price turns quickly against you.






You hit the Sell button! Think later.

Taking profit is never wrong hor!




It is never wise to love One Twin deeply and hate the Other Twin easily.



Who is the Other Twin Sister?

Too cheam???

Time to buy Uncle8888?


















Saturday, 14 September 2013

Book: The New Good Life



Read this book.





















If you are not a trader, can consider reading. LOL!

BAU at NLB.


Fifth Viet-S'pore industrial park breaks ground

Sembcorp is lead partner in S'pore consortium in the JV located in central Vietnam
 

BT 20130914 KTVSIP14 755040

STRATEGIC LOCATION


VSIP Quang Ngai will offer manufacturers a new and alternative investment locale away from Vietnam's northern and southern regions, where labour markets are tighter and costs continue to rise - PHOTO: SEMBCORP DEVELOPMENT

In Quang Ngai

UNDETERRED by the many challenges facing Vietnam's economy, Sembcorp has once again upped its investment in the socialist republic - this time by building central Vietnam's first large-scale industrial park worth US$337.8 million.

This latest of five Vietnam-Singapore Industrial Parks (VSIPs) is sited in Quang Ngai province, about 90 minutes' flight south of Hanoi. It offers manufacturers a new and alternative investment locale that is away from Vietnam's northern and southern regions, where labour markets are tighter and costs continue to rise.

VSIP Quang Ngai will take shape in the form of a 1,120ha industrial park and integrated township; the industrial park will take up 600ha, with the other 520ha slated for commercial and residential purposes.


The Secret Behind Supersized Returns???



Just For Thinking ...


Read? The Secret Behind Supersized Returns


Read? Uncle8888's Open Secret Behind Supersized Returns





 

When is freedom in your life?



  1. No more Office Hours!
  2. Most of your time are not dictated by meeting schedules and calendar meeting alerts.
  3. No more meeting invites
  4. No more daily, weekly, and monthly Reports to submit.
  5. Everyday is TGIF
  6. What else?


When will it happen?

More good days ahead when we finally step into the Edge of Financial Independence ...

But, you need to do first.

Set your Financial Goals to reach there if you have not done so.
















Friday, 13 September 2013

Madness of men in the stock market???


Just For Thinking ...



"I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men," Newton apparently said after he lost his fortune.


Createwealth8888: Do we think Newton didn't calculate enough not to lose his money?



south sea bubble newton
 
 

Thursday, 12 September 2013

One Chinese character retail stock investors must know!



Just For Laugh





 

SembMarine wins US$346m Helix deal


SEMB965412

Featuring the latest technology, the rig is an efficient purpose-designed platform with capabilities to perform a wide variety of tasks, said Sembcorp Marine - PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

SEMBCORP Marine's subsidiary Jurong Shipyard has secured a US$346 million contract to build a second semi-submersible well intervention rig for Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc (Helix).

Scheduled for delivery in mid-2016, the semi-submersible light well intervention rig will be built based on a design jointly developed by Sembcorp Marine Technology Pte Ltd (SMTP), a fully-owned research & development subsidiary of Sembcorp Marine, and Helix.

Featuring the latest technology, the rig is an efficient purpose-designed platform with capabilities to perform a wide variety of tasks, said Sembcorp Marine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 135.54 points to finish at 153,26.60, logging a three-day win streak,



The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 135.54 points to finish at 153,26.60, logging a three-day win streak, boosted by IBM and Disney.

The S&P 500 climbed 5.14 points to close at 1,689.13. But the Nasdaq slid 4.01 points to end at 3,725.01. So far this month, all three major averages are up more than 3 percent each.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, fell below 14.

Among the key S&P sectors, health care and consumer staples led the gainers, while utilities slipped.


 

Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Start early in your Investing and win???



Just For Thinking ...


Commonly said, read or overheard advice for investing and retirement planning

“The sooner you can start investing, the better you are."


Thinking back, Uncle8888 also started quite early in "investing" e.g. tikam for IPOs in his early days of investing and following brokers' advice and stock tips from people around him.

When he had some spare cash, his hands became so itchy to "invest" or trade?


To be successful in investing, it is not just by starting Early.

It is Start Early and Get it Right as soon as possible by putting in minimum 10,000 hours of hard works into learning and upgrading your investment knowledge and skills.


Read? Minimum of 10,000 hours hard work (2)


"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle


"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." ~ George Soros

Tuesday, 10 September 2013

DBS Bank highest-placing at 3rd spot.

Global Finance magazine has named the World's Top 10 Safest Commercial Banks, and three Singapore banks -- DBS Bank (3rd), Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (4th) and United Overseas Bank (5th) -- made it to the prestigious list.

Rabobank from the Netherlands topped the list while TD Bank Group from Canada came in second.

The latter half of the Top 10 list was filled with Canadian and Australian banks.

Here's the complete list of the World's Top 10 Safest Commercial Banks:

1 Rabobank - Netherlands
2 TD Bank Group - Canada
3 DBS Bank - Singapore
4 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp - Singapore
5 United Overseas Bank - Singapore

6 Royal Bank of Canada - Canada
7 National Australia Bank - Australia
8 Commonwealth Bank of Australia - Australia
9 Westpac - Australia
10 ANZ Group - Australia

Winners were selected through an evaluation of long-term credit ratings—from Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch—and total assets of the 500 largest banks worldwide, said Global Finance in a release.

The full World’s Safest Banks report evaluates the safest banks in Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Asia, the Middle East, North America, Latin America and Australasia.

“Despite not enjoying government support, these banks are among the strongest and most secure institutions in the world,” notes Joseph Giarraputo, publisher of Global Finance.

The detailed report findings are to be published exclusively in Global Finance magazine's October 2013 issue.


Createwealth8888:

With an average of 7.2% yield on investment cost, Uncle8888 shouldn't have any nightmare holding DBS for cash flow over the next few years.




Wall Street jumps, Nasdaq ends at highest since September 2000

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq ending at its highest level since September 2000, as upbeat data from China boosted optimism about the health of the global economy.

Sentiment was also lifted by merger activity and easing concerns about a potential Western-led strike on Syria.

The S&P 500 closed higher for a fifth straight sessions, posting its best daily performance since August 1, while all 10 S&P sectors ended higher. More than 70 percent of companies that trade on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq rose.

Basic materials shares (.SPLRCM) led the day's gains, rising 1.5 percent, after China's August exports handily beat market expectations while consumer inflation held steady. U.S. Steel Corp (NYS:X) jumped 3.5 percent to $19.53 while Alcoa Inc (AA) rose 2 percent to $8.08.

"This is more proof that the Chinese government's attempts to stabilize the country's economy are helping, and that really got us up and running," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.

Equities added to their gains in afternoon trading as it appeared less likely that a resolution authorizing military strikes against Syria would easily pass the U.S. legislature. Geopolitical uncertainty related to Syria has been a major market driver in recent weeks, with investors especially concerned about the potential impact on the oil market.

U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid set a test vote for later this week, but it was unclear whether the measure would attract enough backing to clear anticipated procedural roadblocks.

"Every poll shows it would be very difficult for Obama to get authorization, and that might be enough to delay any action or at least make the action more cautious," said Selkin, who helps oversee $3 billion in assets. "Both of those would give the market a leg up."

Separately, a Russian proposal to place Syria's chemical weapons under international control was welcomed by the government in Damascus, which praised the Kremlin for seeking to "prevent American aggression.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was up 140.62 points, or 0.94 percent, at 15,063.12. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) was up 16.54 points, or 1.00 percent, at 1,671.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was up 46.17 points, or 1.26 percent, at 3,706.18.

The S&P rose above its 50-day moving average for the first time since August 23, a sign of positive near-term momentum. The index has risen for five straight sessions, up 2.4 percent over that period.

Volume was light, with about 5.67 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average this year of about 6.25 billion shares.


Sunday, 8 September 2013

Olam Weekly


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Dividend Value Payment Type Dividend Type Financial Year End Dividend Number Tax Exemption Clause
SGD 0.04 Per 1 Ordinary shareTax Exempted (1-tier)First & Final30/06/2013010One-tier tax exempt
Record Date *07/11/2013
Record Time *17:00
Date Paid/Payable (if applicable)14/11/2013





Olam Daily





 

Waiting for STI Bear Market? How much patience do you have?




The Luck Factor in Investing??? Extra-ordinary Yield on Cost



Read? The Luck Factor in Investing???


Even for Dividend Yield, short-term one can get lucky too as some of these corporate actions taken by companies cannot be analysed.

Buying at the right moment is Luck Factor at its best!


Color coding for Yield on Cost:

Green: > 15%
Blue: < 15% but more than 5%
Pink: < 5%


Saturday, 7 September 2013

The Luck Factor in Investing???



Stock picking is part science, part art, part luck, part intuition, and always uncertain - "not precisely knowing." - Author?


Investment is luck or skill? Michael Mauboussin resolves the mystery

The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin

How did this book come about?

The topic of skill and luck is something I've thought about a lot over the years, especially in the context of sports — where I have been an avid participant and a fan all of my life — as well as business and investing. Skill and luck is interesting in the sense that everyone knows it's important but there's been relatively little done on it.

There is work on each of the components, including skill, luck, reversion to the mean, but nowhere is this all brought together. Further, I had enjoyed a number of very popular books on randomness and luck, but felt they emphasised more the fact that luck is pervasive rather than how to figure out how much luck there is in an activity and, most importantly, what to do about it.

How do you define luck?

I suggest that there's luck in an activity when three conditions are met. First, it applies to an individual or organisation. Second, it can be good or bad. And, finally, it is reasonable to expect that a different result could have occurred. I also like to distinguish between randomness and luck. I view randomness as operating at a system level, and luck at an individual level. For example, if I gather 100 people and ask them to call consecutive coin tosses, randomness tells me how many will call 4 in a row correctly. If you are the one who calls them right, you are lucky.

Note cases where luck wouldn't apply. For instance, Warren Buffett has often said that he was lucky to have been born when and where he was born. But by the definition I have adopted, that is not lucky because it is not reasonable to expect a different outcome could have occurred. Only he could have been born to those parents at that time. Now he may have been fortunate, but by my definition he was not lucky.

You say investing is a mix of skill and luck — how exactly does that work?

One way to think about it is that skill reflects elements under your control and luck reflects elements outside your control. So in the context of investing, you can identify things within your control: which stocks you select, how diversified your portfolio may be, how your portfolio is positioned based on various possible economic outcomes.

But there's a great deal that will be out of your control, including macroeconomic developments, unanticipated behavior by the customers or competitors of a company in which you hold stock, and broader technological change.

So investing will have elements of skill and luck. The key question is how much does each element contribute to long-term results. The answer, by the way, is that luck is a major factor for investment results over the short term but skill is relevant over the long haul.

Read? Luck and Skill???



17 September Luncheon Talk: The Keppel Story presented by Mr Choo Chiau Beng


CW8888: Pay to hear story!
 
 
THE KEPPEL STORY

From it`s humble beginnings as a local ship repair yard, the Keppel Group has become one of the largest conglomerates in Singapore.

Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O&M) is a global leader in offshore rig design, construction and repair, ship repair and conversion, and specialized ship building. It integrates and harnesses the experience and expertise of 20 yards and offices worldwide to be near customers and markets. Driven by innovation and capable people with the Can Do! spirit, Keppel O&M strives to become a builder of distinction in every aspect of its business.

The Luncheon Talk will be given by Mr Choo Chiau Beng, the CEO of Keppel Corporation Ltd.  Mr Choo is also the Chairman of Keppel Land Ltd, Keppel O&M Ltd and Keppel Infrastructure Holdings Pte Ltd. In 2010 Mr Choo was the first recipient of the prestigious NBAS Award.

Mr Choo will give us the Keppel Story, how they came to be a global leading Company, how to survive and be competitive in a changing market and in economic turbulence times, plus finding new innovative solutions for the customers.

Date:  Tuesday 17 September 2013

Time:  12 Noon till 2 PM

Place:  Hilton Singapore, 581 Orchard Road S 238883

Price:  $ 70.00 for NBAS members, $ 85.00 for non-members

Lunch buffet and drinks included. Bring your collegaue or friends!
 

Like it or not. We as ordinary retail investor have to measure our investment performance. Why???


Like it or not. 

We as ordinary retail investor have to measure our investment performance.

Why???

Some retail investors may think that measuring investment performance using CAGR or XIRR or Rate of Return is for "boosting" investing ego.

May be those people said this are not Economics students or they know too little on Econ 101. They don't really understand the future value of money!

The future value of our money 20 to 30 years from now will  depend on our investment strategies taken and their rate of return achieved over the next 10 to 20 years. We need to know exactly how to get there. No measuring. How to know?


Read? Fight your biggest worry: Inflation!!!


Who are likely to be affected by inflation?

The middle income is affected.

The poor is badly affected.

Unless, you are telling me that you are so rich that inflation is insignificant to you; then you don't need to bother to measure your rate of return in your investment performance as you can't finish spending your money in your lifetime.


Measuring your Rate of Return on your investment performance has nothing to do with "boosting" your investing ego.

Don't ever get it wrong!

It is about fighting our biggest worry as consumers. INFLATION!

Read? Measuring your investment performance
 











Friday, 6 September 2013

Is correction for STI over???


Singapore shares ended higher on Friday with the Straits Times Index gaining 8.9 points to 3,048.35.

Some 2.72 billion shares, valued at S$1.19 billion were traded. Gainers numbered 248 while losers numbered 181.

 
 
 

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Keppel FELS delivers Ao Thai Super B jack-up

Transocean to operate newbuild unit off Thailand for Chevron

Transocean has taken delivery of a Keppel FELS newbuild Super B jack-up bound for offshore Thailand to drill for Chevron.

Singapore’s Keppel said the unit, named Ao Thai, had been delivered on budget and on schedule.

Keppel FELS managing director Wong Kok Seng said that the unit was the fifteenth delivered by the contractor this year and that Keppel FELS was on track to deliver a record 20 by the end of 2013.

It is the third unit of its kind the yard has built for Transocean after the Transocean Siam Driller and Transocean Andaman.

The unit comes equipped with larger spud cans to allow it to operate in soft-soil areas, and can stand offline in its drilling system package, allowing for simultaneous drilling and drill pipe preparation.

It also has 1.5 million-pound drilling system and maximum combined cantilever load of 3200 kips to help drive drilling operations.


Sunday, 1 September 2013

Value Trap and Margin of Safety (Illustrated)



Just For Thinking ....



Read? Value Trap and Margin of Safety


After reading Margin of Safety by SMOL.

Now Uncle8888's turn to illustrate with real life picture on Margin of Safety.

Less Analysing. More Investing - Createwealth8888


How to feel like a winner in your investment?



Just For Thinking ....


Doing this ...


Very high chance that you will feel like a winner in your investment!


Read? Compare Bank Account Rates in Singapore








 

Reaching the Edge of Financial Independence. Next, watch your Beta closely! (2)



Read? Reaching the Edge of Financial Independence. Next, watch your Beta closely!

Passive Income exceeds Expenses = Financial Freedom???









Probably, we are just at Edge of Financial Independence. The volatility of the market can still give us minor headaches.

"To be financially independent is to be able to maintain your desired standard of living, without ever facing the risk of running out of money." - Goh Eng Yeow


"Trusting the vagaries of the stock market to try to achieve that goal is really too much like a roll of dice." - Goh Eng Yeow







Saturday, 31 August 2013

War Room Planning for market correction and next Fat Bear





Book : Happy Money


We don't need to spend lots of money to be happy!

But, cannot under-spend our money too. Later other people happily spend huge amount of leftover money.

"Life is short and fragile". When we tio dementia we also don't know how to count money liao.

This book is available at NLB.







 

Benchmark Your Gross Monthly Income From Work









 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: Comprehensive Labour Force Survey, MOM
Latest figures published in: Labour Force in Singapore
 
Notes:
  • Data exclude full-time National Servicemen.
  • Data are for mid-year.
  • Residents refer to Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents.
  • Gross monthly income from work refers to income earned from employment. For employees, it refers to the gross monthly wages or salaries before deduction of employee CPF contributions and personal income tax. It comprises basic wages, overtime pay, commissions, tips, other allowances and one-twelfth of annual bonuses. For self-employed persons, gross monthly income refers to the average monthly profits from their business, trade or profession (i.e. total receipts less business expenses incurred) before deduction of income tax.
  • Before 2009, full-time refers to employment where the normal hours of work is at least 30 hours a week while part-time refers to employment where the normal hours of work is less than 30 hours a week. From 2009 onwards, the threshold between full-time and part-time was revised from 30 hours to 35 hours to align with the revised definition in the Employment Act.
  • Data for 2005 are not available as the Comprehensive Labour Force Survey was not conducted due to the conduct of the General Household Survey by Department of Statistics, Ministry of Trade and Industry. 
  • ^ Deflated by Consumer Price Index for all items at 2009 prices (2009 = 100). Figures in brackets are deflated by Consumer Price Index less imputed rentals on owner-occupied accommodation at 2009 prices (2009 = 100).
  • n.a.= Not available


Read? http://www.iras.gov.sg/irasHome/page.aspx?id=15060#IIT


Benchmark yourself as Tax Payer.

Individual Income Tax
Taxable Individuals by Income Group
As at 31 March 2013 for the Year of Assessment 2012


 





Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 30.64 points (0.21 percent) at 14,810.31

NEW YORK: US stocks closed a mostly downcast week on a sour note on Friday following fresh indications the Obama administration plans military action against Syria.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 30.64 points (0.21 percent) at 14,810.31.

The broad-based S&P 500 dropped 5.20 points (0.32 percent) to 1,632.97, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gave up 30.43 points (0.84 percent) at 3,589.87.

Friday's trade was light on the last session of the month and before the long holiday weekend. US financial markets will be closed Monday for the Labour Day federal holiday.

Uncertainty about Syria, coupled with uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting and low trading volumes, produced a "buyer's strike" this week, said David Levy, portfolio manager of Kenjol Capital Management.

"There's just no impetus to buy," Levy said. "We're heading into a three-day weekend with plenty of uncertainty and we're also heading into a month with quite a bit of uncertainty."


Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Singapore shares prices fell 1.0% on Wednesday for the 10th straight session of losses.


SINGAPORE: Singapore shares prices fell 1.0% on Wednesday for the 10th straight session of losses.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) shed 29.84 points to close at 3004.18.
The fall was in line with Asian market weakness.
Jitters over a possible US military strike against Syria hit Asian markets and added to recent worries the US may pull back on its stimulus.
The STI initially dipped below its 3000 support but recovered some ground towards the closing.
In the broader market, losers outnumbered gainers 373 to 114 and trading volume totalled 3.05 billion shares.
Thai Beverage was among the losers, shedding 7.7% to close at S$0.420.
Real-estate stocks were hit by the latest government property-cooling measures announced, with CapitaLand down 2.3% to S$2.93 while City Developments lost 2.2% to end at S$9.76.   






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