Read? Time in the Market > Timing the Market??? (4)
Uncle8888 knows clearly the difference and see through the debate on Market Timing vs Time in the Market through his daily tracking of investment portfolio across market cycles over the last 22 years!
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Hi Uncle8888,
ReplyDeleteWonder if you also track the performance if you had not taken back your initial capital i.e. maintain entire cash & CPFIS in the market with no market timing?
I just compared my market timing since 2010 with a theoretical buy-and-hold portfolio containing the main ETFs that I use (equally-weighted & annually rebalanced).
The buy-and-hold won by a couple % points per year, which resulted in 5X-ing my initial amount in 2010 (with no new injection of money).
My market timing got me about 4X, which means I lost a potential entire starting 2010 portfolio. 😬
The main consolation is that I had less volatility, lower drawdowns especially in 2018 & 2020, and sleep better at night!
Theoretically or snake oil method is to use the best performance of 12% CAGR from 2000 (initial capital at inception) to 2007 to add back those lost net investment gains to current investment gains is CAGR of 7.5% over 22 yrs or 194% opportunity ROC LOST! :-( Bang head liao!
DeleteThanks Spur and CW!
DeleteYou both just provided an inspiration for my next post!
;)