Property Investing - Case Study 2

On Adam Khoo

In 1998 (probably at low property cycle), he bought condo in East Coast, $480K, sold it in 2004 for $650K

Gross Gain = 35% over 6 years. Gross Annualized Gain = 5.9%

Annualized Gross Rental Yield = 7.5%

Just purely looking at annualized Gross ROC of 5.9%, without any leveraging, may not really much better than buying blue chips during market low for those with smaller capital.

Now, comparing with my personal annualized stock dividend yield (since 2002, before that I didn't bother to track) of 8.3%.

I mainly hold blue chips for dividend play. So, for long term investors, it may not be wise to overlook those blue chips giving good dividends. If you have spare cash, you may want to "eyes open wide" to look for blue chips with good dividends

BTW, I intend to agree the view of http://market-uncle.blogspot.com/ on Property vs Stock. See his view as belows:
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06 December 2008
Property vs Equity as an Investment

Rationale

I happen to have chat with my former colleague on the investment merits of equity versus property, in the context of passive income as primary concern and capital returns being secondary. Under this context, an investment must be one that provides a stable cash flow, either from monthly rentals or dividend payouts.

Property vs Equity

Rents vs Dividend

At first glance, property provides stable rental returns, usually in substantial monthly figures that can supplement or even substitute active incomes from work. Monthly rental figures in the magnitude of $3,000 to $5,000 are reasonable for renting out entire 3-room condominium units in reasonably attractive locations, close to basic amenities like MRT station, food centres etc.

On the other hand, dividend from equities are usually paid out once a year and are far less stable than rents. The amount are usually meagre and are regarded more as extra annual bonus than monthly income supplements.

Leveraged vs Unleveraged Portfolio

But on closer look, the significant difference in payout can be attributed to leverage. To obtain the rental figures listed above, a typical condominium would have cost anything from $700,000 to above $1,000,000. A typical well-to-do middle income household that can afford to purchase a second property would typically have to draw down a housing loan ranging from 80 to 90%. Few from this group will be expected to 'cash and carry' their property.

In contrast, few sensible people who invest in stocks with objective of getting stable dividend returns would take up any loan to finance their purchase. If the typical well-to-do middle income household above who can afford to pay a 20% down payment or $200,000 on a $1,000,000 property, instead use the down payment to for share purchase, it would have earned them only $14,000 in dividend annually or $1167, assuming a 7% dividend yield (a respectable figure in 'normal' times). This is way below the $3,000 to $5,000 for rents above. The difference attributed to leverage can hence be seen quite clearly.

What if they are willing to take up a $800,000 loan to buy shares? Combined with their original $200,000, there annual dividend income would have been $70,000 or $5833 monthly, a equally respectable figure. But in both scenarios, I have not taken into account the cost of borrowing. Since equity loan are usually unsecured and the cost of borrowing will be much higher than a comparable housing loan.

Fall out from current financial crisis

Every crisis offers new opportunities. The current credit crisis is no different. Property prices and rents have started falling and could plunge further given weaker demand and greater supply in the years ahead as more new property projects are ready. More information can be found in the URA's website.

If falling property prices offers opportunities, plunging equity prices offers even greater opportunities, though the risk should be higher (risk must commensurate higher returns). Once built, the condominium should remain there but there is no guarantee the company still exist to honour the claim by the shareholder.

I extract out 7 relatively high and stable dividend play equities from SGX and summarise them in the following table:

The 7 are well represented by 3 shipping trusts, 2 REITs and 2 food industry related business. The stability in yield arises by nature of the business, e.g. Singapore Airport Terminal Services and Pacific Andes, or by long term contracts e.g. The shipping trusts and REITS.

Taken together, these 7 offers an averaged yield of about 26%. Reusing the example of the middle income household above, a $200,000 investment would give $52,000 annually or $4,333 monthly, without leverage!

But the fact these equities offers such high yields is due to the underlying risk. Other then Singapore Airport Terminal Services, the other 6 businesses are highly leveraged and there is no certainty all will survive the current credit storm. Even if they could, there is a high chance dividend could be cut due to lower income and hence reduce the yield significantly.

Conclusion

Given the current credit storm, if I have the funds to purchase a private property, I would rather threw them into equity. The chance that all 7 high yield stocks above turn into useless scrap paper ALTOGETHER is actually quite low, at least, that's what I think. Unfortunately, I don't have such funds now...still waiting for Singapore Pools to give me a hand.
Labels: property