The Buy and Hold Investors’ Nightmare

Being a Buy and Hold investor is like living through a nightmare where you find yourself the main character of the Greek “Myth of Sisyphus."

Futile and Hopeless Labor: In this myth, Sisyphus is condemned by the god Zeus to an eternity of futile and hopeless labor. He must roll a heavy stone to the top of a mountain. But then the stone rolls all the way back down … and Sisyphus has to push the stone back up again to the top.

A sentence of “futile and hopeless labor" is similar to the situation that Buy and Hold investors have faced during many periods of stock market history. Since “Bull" Markets are inevitably followed by “Bear" Markets, the investor’s hard-won gains from the Bull Market up-cycle evaporate as market prices fall during the Bear Market down-cycle.

That’s not to say the stock market hasn’t gone up over time. Looked at over hundreds of years, the market has grown at a 7% average growth rate. You might say: What’s the matter with 7%? The problem is that in order to have a statistically high probability of achieving an average growth rate that high, you should expect a potential wait of as long as 20 to 40 years!

Bear Markets Appear at Regular Intervals: Looking at the past 200 year historical record as author John Mauldin does in his book Bull’s Eye Investing, there have been 7 “secular" bull market cycles and 7 secular bear cycles … the bulls averaging 14 years in length and the bears 15 years. The word secular means “era" as in a long time.

Bull and bear cycles are long enough to consume a major portion of your earning years. Look at the cycles of the past century: The Depression-era bear market cycle lasted from 1929 to 1945. Then the bull cycle after World War II lasted from 1946 to 1964. After that, a new bear market cycle lasted from 1965 until 1981. The most recent bull cycle ended in 2007.