I started serious Investing Journey in Jan 2000 to create wealth through long-term investing and short-term trading; but as from April 2013 my Journey in Investing has changed to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Since 2017 after retiring from full-time job as employee; I am moving towards Investing Nirvana - Freehold Investment Income for Life investing strategy where 100% of investment income from portfolio investment is cashed out to support household expenses i.e. not a single cent of re-investing!

It is 57% (2017 to Aug 2022) to the Land of Investing Nirvana - Freehold Income for Life!


Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Thursday, 5 June 2008

Hot news for Kep Corp, SML, and SCI

SDRL - Seadrill orders four jack-up newbuilds for delivery in 2010
Seadrill has entered into agreements with KFELS and PPL Shipyard in Singapore for the construction of in total four jack-up newbuilds with delivery in 2010.

The two units to be built at KFELS will be based on the KFELS Mod V 'B' design. The rated water depth is 400ft and drilling depth is 30,000ft. Deliveries are scheduled in June and November 2010 and the total contract price for the two units is approximately US$420 million. These jack-ups will be the fifth and sixth jack-up orders that Seadrill has placed with KFELS. The previous units have all been delivered on time and budget and are all in operation for various oil companies.

The two units to be built at PPL Shipyard will be based on the Baker Marine Pacific Class 375 Deep Drilling design. The rated water depth is 375ft and drilling depth is 30,000ft. Deliveries are scheduled in March and November 2010 and the total contract price for the units is approximately US$430 million. These jack-ups will be the second and third jack-up orders that Seadrill has placed with PPL Shipyard. The first unit, the West Triton was delivered on time and budget in early January this year and is currently operating for Apache in Victoria, Australia.

Seadrill has in addition received option agreements for further jack-up newbuildings in 2011.

Alf C Thorkildsen, CEO Seadrill Management AS, says in a comment,
"These newbuild orders are the best way to increase Seadrill's near term earnings potential in the offshore drilling market. We are convinced that the market for offshore drilling units in general will remain tight in the years to come. The decision to initiate the US$850 million building program was taken based on expected high return on invested equity due to the following factors; the current jack-up order book is less than 20 percent of the existing ageing fleet (which has an average age of 23 years), the jack-up newbuild capacity before 2011 at first class yards is limited and the number of term contract for jack-ups is increasing.

"Furthermore, the combination of deliveries, pricing and expected return is attractive compared to other investment alternatives within the offshore asset market as well as corporate opportunities. The Seadrill Board has specifically concluded that this opportunity is superior to increasing the bid for Scorpion in order to achieve a potential higher acceptance. The four jack-up newbuilds will grow the Seadrill high quality jack-up fleet from eight to 12 units. It is not expected that the newbuildings will significantly reduce Seadrill's short-term dividend capacity. Longer term, dividend is expected to increase as a function of the orders. Seadrill's shareholders should be assured that Seadrill's focus will continue to be on the deepwater segment. However, the Board will continue to work opportunistic in order to seek to maximize return to shareholders based on investments limited to modern drilling assets."



Analyst contact
Jim Daatland
VP Investor Relations
Seadrill Management AS
+47 51 30 99 19

Media contact
Alf C Thorkildsen
Chief Executive Officer
Seadrill Management AS
+47 51 30 99 19


Seadrill Limited
Hamilton, Bermuda
June 5, 2008

NOL - No selling pressure today. Looked alright

My Portfolio Tracking



sharing My Portfolio Tracking with the brothers

Portfolio update - Bought NOL @ 3.70

Wednesday, 4 June 2008

Tuesday, 3 June 2008

Full-time investing

Like to share one article Googled. POSTED BY DANIELXX (Thanks to him)


The buoyant stock market may have got some investors/traders who have made good money to consider quitting their jobs and doing investment/trading full-time. This is evident from the enthusiastic response to a thread with the same title in one of the share forums (wallstraits.com I believe). Judging from the comments of one or two of my contacts who have gone down this path, I would think there are pitfalls that one has to be aware of to avoid being sorely disappointed and suffering heavy opportunity costs.

Firstly, one's risk appetite changes tremendously when going from part-time to full-time. Any entrepreneur would tell you this: that when they start their own business, every cost component becomes magnified to them because it all flows toward their bottom line. So it is for one trading/investing for a living. In general, return is directly correlated to risk, which means the eventual returns may not be what was projected at the onset of turning full-time. For traders and investors alike, the level of volatility which previously worked fine for them might now seem too risky; the change in risk outlook is subtle but palpable. It is a psychological barrier that is difficult to overcome.

Secondly, mental discipline is compromised. An investor previously too busy to track stock prices suddenly finds all the time in the world for his own allocation; the temptation is too great for him to follow the path of least resistance and monitor stock prices since his fortunes are tied to them. Routine office work, whether one likes it or not, gives a definite structure to one's mental framework and hones useful skills. Social interaction and the exchange of ideas with other people (colleagues, clients) also augment this. All such activities are lost when one turns inward to one's own investment portfolio.

Thirdly, one's investment horizon is shortened as there is a definite pressure to "bring bread home every day" or at least every month. While buy-and-hold is hardly the way to go (except for people like Warren Buffett), one should also not be primed to sell every time a portfolio stock rises by 10-20%; as Peter Lynch advises, let the profits run. Worse, one might buy a stock for the wrong reasons as a result of the shortened investment horizon; where previously he used to buy an illiquid stock for its long-term prospects and wait for it to be recognised, he might now start buying highly valued, highly traded momentum stocks to reap quick gains in a highly risky musical chairs game (or the "greater fool" game). Patience is a virtue highly relevant to investing; that virtue is often attenuated when one depends on and consequently focuses excessively on one's stock portfolio.

Fourthly, one has to reconcile within oneself the role of a trader/investor in contributing to society. This social pressure cannot be underestimated, especially from the older generation. This view is understandable, and indeed, one will have to assess his motive for turning to full-time investing/trading. Is it mainly due to push factors (job dissatisfaction)? If so, it is time for a rethink. As for contribution to society, there is none: all that talk about bringing liquidity to the market and helping to ensure efficient resource allocation and prices is just plain bollocks; traders or investors bring nothing to society, unless they reach a certain scale of operations akin to that of venture capitalists. One has to be comfortable with that.

All things being said, there are people who trade or invest successfully on their own, in various areas such as equities, commodities, futures. I would think to overcome the psychological barriers described above, one has to have at least one million bucks to consider this avenue as a complete full-time option, or at least half a million with another additional source of passive income to be comfortable with this chosen path for the long-term. Assuming an annual dividend yield of 3% (typical for the Singapore market), one can collect $30K in dividends on a million-dollar portfolio which is adequate for covering the household expenditure ie. capital gains will be the main instrument for growing the portfolio and the full-timer will have to be confident of making this happen. Additionally, the drive to constantly enhance one's knowledge in this field should be there; there are so many ways to improve one's reading of stocks, from enhancing one's knowledge of the various industries through reading, to locating sources of information to enable monitoring of the environment in which one's stocks operate, to streamlining the stock selection process, to understanding the global or regional markets with a view to assessing global supply and demand dynamics. It would be fair to say that the level of discipline involved is similar to that in operating one's own business.

Monday, 2 June 2008

Kep corp - survive profit taking, breakout tmr?



Uncle DOW well behaved tonite, tmr it will breakout.

Sunday, 1 June 2008

Kep - breakout on Monday?

Keppel FELS to build 6th ENSCO semisubmersible rig worth US$537 million

1-June-2008

Keppel FELS to build 6th ENSCO semisubmersible rig worth US$537 million
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
6-May-2008

Keppel FELS secures order for a US$512 million rig from ENSCO

Keppel FELS Limited (Keppel FELS), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Offshore & Marine Limited (Keppel O&M), has secured a contract to build a US$512 million ultra-deepwater semisubmersible (semi) drilling rig from a subsidiary of ENSCO International Incorporated (ENSCO).

To be delivered in the second half of 2011, the ENSCO 8504 will be the fifth consecutive semi that Keppel FELS is constructing for ENSCO.
------------------------------------------------------------

Wow! Both Kep and SML are still getting more orders at higher price, probably, to offset higher cost. They are not squeezed by their customers.

I think Kep will breakout on Monday liao. Last Friday, closing with doji near resistance line. Keep up, Kep. Cheers!

Lesson learnt on NTUC Income Saga

Lesson learnt to be passed on to my children. Buy Term for protection and invest the difference for return. I believe that we are the only person that truly care about our investment; and definitely not the so-called money managers, who work for salary and they are not your "Dad". They are not going to ensure you that you get "rich" or say sorry you get "Poor".

We should put in the best effort to increase our FQ and invest the rest of money.

Few days ago, I reminded my two elders that their father is still their best FA, and listen to nobody else.

Saturday, 31 May 2008

How much is enough?

In another word, bro dream is asking me a complex question with no simple answer. How much is enough? This amount will depend on what are my values, goals, and desires.

I define financial independence end goal as when staying employed becomes an option or effectively out of the rat race; and I do not need to depend on an active employment income. My nett worth drawdown and passive income will be able to support my living expenses for the next 25 years after 55 i.e. assuming not living beyond 80 years old. Both my parents did not survive beyond 70 years old so I don't think I will last beyond 80, probably, my spouse would.

(1) What is my expected monthly living expenses for next 25 years?

I have been tracking my monthly living expenses since Jan 2001 so I know what is the maximum, minimum, and average monthly expenses. Then, I use this formula Expected Monthly Expenses = (Maximum + 4xAverage + Minimum)/6 to estimate.

(2) How much is enough?

Enough = 25 x Expected Monthly Expenses x 12

(3) Where to find this amount?

I will exclude CPF Special, Medisave, home; and absolutely zero debts. I will live at this home till death. BTW, home is five walk from MRT, shopping mall, and park. 15 mins bus ride to Punggol marina. I don't think I will want to shift elsewhere.

(4) Is this really enough?

Next, to do some sanity check and baring unforeseen life events, and if it happens, then life will be much tougher and will have to face it when it come; otherwise, there will be never, never, be enough. No matter how much?

I assume that I need not support the two elder ones when they start working and the monthly expenses will be reduced by 40%, and when the last one start working, the monthly expense further reduced by 20%.

With the assumption, then I overestimate the living expenses forecast for next 25 years to include 3 kids university expenses, medical expenses, major household applicances replacement, house repairs, and some misc.

The sanity check does show this amount is enough barring any unforeseen life events happening

(4) Where is the contingency fund?

I plan to allocate 50% of this amount for drawdown for monthly expenses and it will be able to last for 10-12 years. The other 50% for investment income which will help to offset inflation. From history, the market cycle between the two peaks is less than 10 years. I will be able to recover any capital losses. CPF Special account will be the additional buffer.

(5) Lastly, pray to God for blessing and good health.

May 08 - End Game Goal update



I think the days of easy profits are over, and moving forward towards this End Goal for next three years will be harder and tougher. No more foolish thinking that easy money can be made from the market. Cheers!

Friday, 30 May 2008

Thursday, 29 May 2008

Kep and SML

Both Kep and SML are doing well today with good volume so will there will a possible breakout tomorrow? Uncle DOW, hope you don't tumble tonite!

SML and Kep - Will the rise continue with this news?

Petrobras Hits in Deepwater GOM
Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Petrobras announced the discovery of oil and gas in ultra-deep waters in the Central Gulf of Mexico, in the U.S., via its Petrobras America Inc. subsidiary, based in Houston, Texas. The discovery was made via the Stones # 3 well, drilled to perform the exploratory assessment of the Stones discovery, which is operated by Shell and located in Block WR 508, in ultra-deep Walker Ridge Quadrant waters. Petrobras America Inc. holds a 25% stake there. The remaining partners, in addition to Shell (35%), are Marathon and ENI, with 25%, and 15%, respectively. The Stones # 3 well is located at a depth of 2,286 meters from the water line and reached a total depth of 8,960 meters under the sea bed, finding oil in multiple reservoirs. Future drilling and assessment activities are being planned to define this discovery’s size and commercial viability.
This result confirms the potential of significant oil reserves in this type of reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico, where Petrobras operates the Cascade and Chinook fields which at the present are in the production development and facility construction phase.Petrobras will be the pioneer company in production in this type of reservoir in ultra-deep waters. It will also pioneer using an FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading) type platform in the region, the production of which is slated to go online in June 2010. In this same area, Petrobras also holds 25% stakes in the Saint Malo field. This field is operated by Chevron and is in the assessment and extension exploratory drilling phase. Also, studies are being done to the production development project for Saint Malo.
Holding stakes in these discoveries confers Petrobras a differentiated position in the Walker Ridge Quadrant and its neighboring areas. Furthermore, these discoveries are aligned with the company’s Strategic Plan and are important steps in the consolidation of a quality Exploration and Production project portfolio in deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico."

Wednesday, 28 May 2008

Monday, 26 May 2008

Anyone else interested in Brazil Oil?

Keppel Attracts SunAmerica as Cheap Way to Brazil Oil (Update1)

By Kyunghee Park

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's push to find $135-a-barrel crude in water more than 2 kilometers deep is prompting AIG SunAmerica Asset Management Corp. to invest in Keppel Corp., the world's biggest oil-rig maker.

Jersey City, New Jersey-based SunAmerica Asset, owned by American International Group Inc., bought 865,000 shares after a 24 percent decline in the first quarter, according to regulatory filings. Since then, Singapore-based Keppel has climbed 19 percent, five times as much as the Straits Times Index. The shares, priced 19 percent below smaller competitor Sembcorp Marine Ltd. based on estimated 2009 profit, may rise 27 percent to S$15 over the next 12 months, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Melinda Baxter.

``Demand for rigs and floating platforms will continue to be robust for at least the next four to five years,'' said Soo Hai Lim, a member of the emerging-markets team responsible for $12 billion of Asian equities, including Keppel, at Baring Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong.

``We favor Keppel and Sembcorp Marine because they are the leaders in the industry,'' said Lim, whose firm is a unit of Springfield, Massachusetts-based MassMutual Financial Group.

Untapped Reserves

Keppel is selling more deep-water rigs, which are twice as expensive as those for shallower water, as supplies tighten amid an intensifying search for untapped reserves further from shore. That helped the company post profit margins last quarter that were 1.9 percentage points wider than Sembcorp Marine's, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, 16 recommend buying Keppel and four say to hold it. The company's offshore and marine unit accounted for half of first-quarter net income.

Keppel dropped 2.4 percent to S$11.52 as of 11:20 a.m. in Singapore. Sembcorp Marine fell 3.6 percent to S$4.32.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-owned oil company also known as Petrobras, plans to order 40 drill ships and platforms worth about $30 billion for delivery by 2017 after finding the Tupi field, the largest Western Hemisphere discovery since 1976. The field may contain 5 billion to 8 billion barrels.

``We are likely to see order-book momentum picking up again in the short term,'' Winnifred Heap at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Singapore wrote in a May 21 note. The analyst rates Keppel and Sembcorp Marine ``overweight.''

An offshore platform takes as long as 32 months to design and build after a contract is signed. That means Petrobras will continue to award orders until 2014 to meet a 2017 delivery target, according to analysts.

More Spending

Keppel and Sembcorp Marine may capture 27 percent of the global market this year for semisubmersible rigs, which use anchors weighing more than 10 metric tons, JPMorgan said.

Petrobras, based in Rio de Janeiro, said May 21 it struck oil in a well in 2.1 kilometers (1.3 miles) of water off the coast of Sao Paolo state. The company has leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore that find and other prospects.

The head of Brazil's oil agency said last month that the nearby Carioca field may hold 33 billion barrels of crude, making it potentially the world's third-largest. Petrobras is evaluating the field and hasn't confirmed the estimate.

Such findings may require even more offshore-equipment spending, Petrobras Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa said May 21.

Oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc will spend a record $98.7 billion this year on exploration and production, more than quadruple the amount eight years ago. Crude oil rose to a record of more than $135 a barrel on May 22 as OPEC ministers said they could do nothing to stop a rally that may be heading to $200 a barrel.

Jumping Prices

``The underinvestment in the 1980s and '90s in the industry gave rise to this jump in the oil prices,'' Choo Chiau Beng, Keppel's senior executive officer, said April 24. ``There will be demand for offshore equipment.''

Keppel, whose Brazilian yard is the largest in the Southern Hemisphere, has completed projects for Petrobras that produce more than half the country's output of 1.8 million barrels a day, according to Keppel's Web site.

The Singapore company's S$11.8-billion ($8.69 billion) backlog at the end of March includes a $1.2 billion Petrobras contract for a semisubmersible platform.

Demand for the offshore units has pushed up prices the past two years. Samsung Heavy Industries Co., the world's second- largest shipbuilder, won a record $942 million order for a drill ship earlier this month from Stena AB, owner of Sweden's biggest ferry company.

Rising Costs

Higher labor and material costs associated with construction of the P-51 offshore platform for Petrobras helped push Keppel's fourth-quarter operating profit, or sales minus the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses, down 40 percent. That prompted DBS Vickers Securities to advise caution on the shares.

``We are still avoiding Keppel for the moment,'' the Singapore firm said in a May 22 note. It has a ``hold'' rating for Keppel.

Even so, investors say the tight yard capacity and higher fuel prices will translate into more offshore-equipment orders, extending the industry's boom.

``The upcycle for offshore equipment, like drill ships and offshore platforms, has just started,'' said Park Hyoung Ryol, who helps manage $1.2 billion, including Samsung Heavy shares, at Consus Asset Management Co. in Seoul.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kyunghee Park in Seoul at kpark3@bloomberg.net

Saturday, 24 May 2008

STI High Low



The rate of fall in STI has slowed down, probably due to lack of aggressive sellers. It might be a good sign. Let see how badly will STI fall on Monday.

SML - can it survive the profit taking on Monday?



Earlier buyers have been sitting on a very nice profit. Let's see how they run.

Friday, 23 May 2008

8 Rules to break to build Wealth

By Melissa Ezarik

Being "upside down" is usually a negative term when applied to financial matters, but multimillionaire Robert Shemin believes that sort of thinking is ... well ... upside down.

Shemin, author of "How Come That Idiot's Rich and I'm Not?" feels there are two positions when it comes to wealth: right side up and broke, or upside down and rich. Shemin prefers upside down. The best way to build and maintain wealth, maintains Shemin -- once considered the "least likely to succeed"-- is by breaking the rules you think and hear about when building wealth.

Following are eight rules worth breaking -- in upside-down order -- and what Shemin and other financial gurus have to say about them.

Diverging from the traditional mind-set may put you on the right course to riches.

8 rules to break to get and stay wealthy

8. Avoid mistakes, learn before investing
7. Don't ask for help
6. Follow the path your advisers recommend
5. Don't invest in unchartered territory
4. Try to time the market
3. Have enough money or good credit to invest
2. Don't get into debt
1. Have a plan


8. Before investing, learn enough so that you're not going to make any mistakes

The problem here: Fear causes inaction, Shemin says. "Everything in life has a risk and a cost for doing it, and a risk and a cost for not doing it. Rich idiots focus on the risk of not doing something." In his experience, most people don't get started on stock marketing or real estate investing, or in estate planning, because they're so scared of making mistakes, they're overwhelmed.

"Of course you should expect to make mistakes when you start investing (or any time)," agrees Ramit Sethi, who writes the popular blog, WillTeachYouToBeRich.com. " But if you start with small amounts, any mistakes won't hurt you too bad. Plus, any mistakes can be mitigated by time."

7. Don't ask for help

"We're taught from an early age that you've got to do everything yourself and that if you ask for help, something's wrong -- you're dumb," Shemin says. Yet he adds that getting help is critical to most people's success. "Getting rich is a team sport."

From selecting the best stocks to the best mortgage, trying to figure out everything yourself is stressful and won't likely result in the best decisions, he explains. "Everybody's good at a few things and not good at a lot of things."

M. Nora Klaver, author of "Mayday! Asking for Help in Times of Need," says, "Asking for help is actually a sign of strength. It shows that you recognize the gap between where you are and where you want to be -- financially and otherwise -- and have both the smarts and guts to take action and seek others' support."

6. Choose the path your advisers recommend

Of course, asking for help wisely means asking the right people. Get referrals, and in interviewing potential financial advisers, "ask how they're getting paid," Shemin says. "You really have to be careful about who you're dealing with."

Michael Edesess, author of "The Big Investment Lie: What Your Financial Adviser Doesn't Want You to Know," says, "The path your financial (adviser) advises is the one that will make them the most money. Money they make is money you lose. It's that simple." Edesess adds that there are ethical financial advisers out there but, he contends, "You're most unlikely to find them at the big-name firms."

5. Don't invest in uncharted territory

Shemin gives the example of virtual real estate, which people are buying and selling with real money through Second Life. "When I found out about this, it made no sense to me," Shemin says."And a lot of smart people out there ask, 'Why would anybody buy and sell space on the Internet that doesn't even exist?'"
But that's right-side-up-and-broke thinking. So, Shemin says, "The rich idiot in me found some experts to explain it to me, and now I understand. It's out there and it's growing and it's something that's of interest. I have a lot of students and friends who are making fortunes sitting around on the Internet."

4. Try to time the market (Createwealth8888: Goes with the market tides instead trying to time the market high or low as you can more easily tell a rising and falling market)

Every day, Shemin says he hears people say that the financial or real estate markets are down, making it a horrible time for investing. Sure, if you're trying to make money within 90 days, maybe it's not the best time to invest, he agrees. "But if your goal is five, 10, 20 years away like it should be, then we know over time the market's going to do well," he explains.

"Nobody can effectively time the market," says Sethi. "We've seen this time and time again, with people thinking they can time the market and failing." And as Peter Miralles, president of Atlanta Wealth Consultants, points out, "Timing the market is not investing. Timing is speculation." Miralles sees valuations, or the process of estimating the market value of a financial asset or liability, as less subjective than market timing and something that can lead to success.

3. Don't invest until you have the money or good credit

Certainly most finance experts would not agree, but Shemin says building credit and maintaining a good credit score aren't necessary in building and maintaining wealth.

This example of upside-down thinking is one he learned in his early 20s, when he went to buy his first real estate property. Shemin had grown up in a cash-only home, and it didn't occur to him that never having borrowed meant he had no credit history. The bank denied the loan. But rather than letting the property pass him by, Shemin found a friend with good credit and they cut a 50-50 ownership deal. When Shemin sold the property a few months later, his cut of the profit was about $20,000. "Not bad for a kid with no cash, no credit and no experience," he writes.

Even though he has built a credit history now, Shemin says he hasn't checked his score in more than two years. "Everybody in America worries about their credit score -- it's like a badge of honor," he says, adding that it's only important if you need to use your credit. His own experience has taught him that there can be ways around it.

2. Don't get into debt

"Most people think debt is debt," Shemin notes. "No matter how hard you work, your money is going to work harder for you if you put it in the right things." For him, that has even meant doing real estate deals with a credit card. "A lot of people say credit cards are bad, but not for me. It's discipline. I pay them off every month."

Sethi learned just how common it is to not to understand bad versus good debt when he gave a talk at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine and spent most of his time comforting the students who paying for their educations with student loans that they'd made the right financial decision. He knew they would enter an industry where they would almost assuredly be able to pay off their debt. "You made one of the smartest decisions in the world," he told them. "That debt is just a hoist to get to let you get to the next level."

1. Have a plan

Shemin says he failed math in high school, but he does remember learning that things with zero probability happen all the time. "Has anything in life not worked out as you planned? As a business person that happens about eight times an hour to me, so you'd better be prepared," he says. To most people, that means having a plan A. But Shemin says it's best to have a plan B and plan C, and sometimes even a plan D and E for when things don't work out as planned.

Miralles says, "A plan should be dynamic and will change as you grow in wisdom." He suggests building a plan and showing it to as many as five people, and then repeating the process every six months as the plan evolves.

Tanya Marchiol, founder and president of the Arizona independent real estate firm Team Investments, also agrees that it's best to break the rule of having a single wealth-building plan. She's an advocate of financial goals, but says the path to them shouldn't be set in stone.

"There will always be an abundance of opportunities that will present themselves to you. If you have your mind set on only those things written out in your plan, you could very well miss out on that opportunity, (which) could have been the one that would have gotten you where you wanted to be faster than your planned investments allowed," she says.

Yet, Shemin notes, even on the road to wealth, it's important to have the right mind-set and realize you're rich already -- with family, friends, health, freedom and "appreciation for what you have already and the gifts that are yet to come."

Thursday, 22 May 2008

Portfolio update - More NOL @ 3.56




Ride this ship safely to Germany or drown half-way at high sea?

Wednesday, 21 May 2008

SCI

I sold yesterday and today you go up big, big hor!!!

Tuesday, 20 May 2008

Sunday, 18 May 2008

NOL - What is brewing there? M&A?

6 bullish white candles, rising price and 4 consecutive days of rising volume. What is driving this stock? Gooogle did not return any recent news.

Let see I could get some more on Tuesday and ride this ship to Germany for M&A.

Saturday, 17 May 2008

Do you know where are rocks? (stocks)

I like this story ...

Once, three millionaires decided to take a short break. After some discussion, they agreed that the best way was to row a boat to the middle of a lake and have an afternoon tea.

They rented a boat and rowed to the center of a serene lake. As they sat down to enjoy their tea, they realized that they have forgotten to bring the teapot. they looked with amusement at each other.

"No problem. I'll get the teapot," volunteered the first millionaire. He stood up, put one leg over the side of the boat and began to walk on the water back to the shore. After purchasing a teapot from a village, he walked on the lake and returned to the boat. All the three millionaires were ready to have their lazy afternoon tea.

As they boiled the water, they found out that they had forgotten the tea leaves.

"Leave that task to me," volunteered the second millionaire as he stood up. He put one leg over the side of the boat and walked on the water. After purchasing some tea leaves, he returned to the boat by walking on the water.

Soon, the three millionaires smelled the sweet aroma of the tea and drank it. Then they realized that there were no sandwiches. An afternoon tea would be wonderful if there are some tidbits.

"okay. since both of you had ran the errands earlier, it leaves me no choice but to get some sandwiches," volunteered the third millionaire reluctantly, when the first two millionaires cast their eyes on him.

He stood up like the other two and put one leg over side of the boat. He began to put his weight on his leg. Splash! Splash! He sank and struggled to keep himself afloat. Seeing that he was drowning, the other two millionaires jumped in to rescue him and managed to get him into the boats.

As the third millionaire was drying himself with a towel, he asked sheepishly, "How did you two manage to walk on the water?"

The millionaires looked at each other, then at him and replied, "We know where the rocks are."

If you know where the rocks (stocks) are in your life (market), you too can be a millionaire and walk in the waters of your life without drowning.

(extract from book entitled "from Beggars to Millionaires")

Power of Dream, Self-belief, and Strength of Determination

In today, ST, May 17 2008, Sports section on Page S31.


The Natalie's life story teaches me the lesson on the power of dream, self-belief, and the strength of determination. It is also true for trading success.

Friday, 16 May 2008

NOL - did not see it coming




I underweight NOL as I have concerns that high oil price will impact its earning; but, it turned out to be wrong. Maybe now, there are more and more believers buying the Hapag-Lloyd and NOL merger story.

Kep Corp - Good recovery



This stock is really taking me through the roller costal high drop ride. Got in @ $11.34 on 28 Jan 08 and reached all time low $9.29 (-18.6% or -$2.05)

It may test $13 soon.

Thursday, 15 May 2008

Portfolio update - Bought JES, Sold SML and WMI




Bought more JES @ $0.42. Sold SML @4.12, bought 4.08. Sold WMI @ 5.02, bought @ 4.96. To recover capital and then use the recent purchase WMI @ 4.90 and SML @ 4.02 for a longer term. (Cleared the cupboard of old inventories)

Is stock trading that easy?

From Kelvin's blog:

Stock trading atttracts many people because it’s easy to try. Many view it as an easy and quick way to riches.

Do you agree with this statement?

Think about it.

---------------------------------------------------------
I have asked about this before - Is stock trading that easy? Some professional traders are given scholarships to learn the craft!

----------------------------------------------------------
My colleague started active trading last year, and he is feeling very stressful now, market goes up, goes down, up, and down. Sell and then goes up big times, buy, and it goes down, cut loss, and then see it goes up, and so on...

I has advised him to read books by Van Tharp on trading psychology, and success-related issues such as self-sabotage. , Ph.D or visit http://www.smarttraderblog.com/

Tuesday, 13 May 2008

Kep Corp- slowly moving up



Collected dividend $0.55 for Kep Corp today. Cheers!

SML - possible breakout soon?

Monday, 12 May 2008

Portfolio update - add YZJ @ 1.12

Sunday, 11 May 2008

Me & my money, thesundaytimes May 11, 2008

Well said by Dr wong:


"One cannot depend on salary alone. We need passive income as well. I hope to be business owner rather than worker"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------


I, createwealth8888, trade and invest to achieve a second passive income; and to reach FI stage by Sep 2011, where the passive income from yearly drawdown (4%) from this net worth plus trading profit to become the main stream income and salary to form secondary income or no income.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Motivational guru Tony Robbins teaches that the reason for doing something rates much higher than the methods you use to get the job done. If you have the strong enough “why” to begin trading – then you will find a way to get the job done. ( extract from David Jenyns )

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personal goal keep you motivated and focused. Take that goal and put it where you will see it when you wake up in the morning and before you go to sleep each night. If you really want to burn this goal into your subconscious mind you should read it aloud once each morning and evening.

This technique really works. It is not “corny”. This is a key technique Napoleon Hill teaches in “Think and Grow Rich”; the class success book teaches how to turn your thoughts into riches. ( extract from David Jenyns )

Saturday, 10 May 2008

Wealth Creation Strategy Video

http://www.listofpennystocks.com/personalvideos/wealth.html

SML - possible breakout soon?



I have added more SML on Friday. Looking at rising volume and price despites STI going down is a very good sign of early buyers are coming on board to take off the profit takers. Is possible breakout coming soon above $4.22? What about its parent SCI? Shouldn't it be performing too? I will be adding more on Monday if SCI come down further.

Friday, 9 May 2008

Mp3 Question & Answer Download Sessions

By special request: here's your chance to listen into 3+ hours of question and answer sessions with Stuart McPhee and David Jenyns.

Note: These sessions were recorded in the lead up to the Triple Your Trading Profits workshop. Please do not email us requesting tickets as this event has now passed. We are looking at releasing the DVD recordings at a future date but no date has been set.

http://www.tradeology.com/stuart_mcphee.html

Portfolio update - BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!

Thursday, 8 May 2008

Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Portfolio update - buy cosco and JES

Portfolio update - Bought JES @ 0.425 for a long ride




Got on board a smaller ship for long and rough ride to its IPO price @ 0.67

-----------------------------
Sunday, 16 December 2007
JES International Holdings Limited


The Company is a major PRC shipbuilding group with production facilities capable of producing different types of vessels. It produces bulk carriers, containerships, ocean engineering vessels (mainly crane barges for offshore oil sector and offshore construction building works) and RO/RO vessels. Our customers include major shipowners based in Europe, Canada and Asia, including the PRC.

Public offer of 16.195m shares at $0.67 per share.
Placement offer of 356.94m shares at $0.67 per share.

Tuesday, 6 May 2008

Portfolio update - contra Cosco and synear, 1 win and 1 loss



Contra Cosco ROC 4.9%, synear -1.5%

Saturday, 3 May 2008

Trading - could be looking easy?

ST, May 3 2008, Page S33.

Adv: Thriving on passion
Back from the Finance Scholarship programme, UOB trader Charles Chua is driven by adrenaline rush and pumped-up action.

Look at this adv. They are professional traders and scholars in the market to win our $$$. So I don't think that trading is that easy as we like it to be. We could be trading with these professional traders as counter-parties. They are very well trained, and have vast resources to take on the market. I am a small fish takes small bites, and hope that I will be smart enough to survive.

Everyday, Charles get excited when SGX open and so do I. He is happy ending the day with some profit. I am happy to end the week with some profit as I do not have the skills and resources for daily profit.

STI will have to catch up soon


Is harvesting season coming sooner than expected?

Will the sell in May this year will be different? Buy in May and sell in June this year?

Friday, 2 May 2008

FerroChina

FRC has been sold down after releasing strong Q1 result. Why like that?


--------------------------------------------------
SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Steel-maker FerroChina
rose as much as 4.9 percent after Hong Kong's South China Morning
Post reported that Australia and Russian firms are eyeing at
least a 20 percent stake in the China-based company.
Shares of FerroChina, which makes galvanised steel, hit an
intraday high of S$1.49 with over 4.8 million traded.
The newspaper report, which did not name its source, said
FerroChina has attracted interest from Australia's BlueScope
Steel and Russian firms including Evraz Group ,
part-owned by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, to buy a 20
percent stake in the Chinese company.
But the unnamed source said FerroChina may receive a large
offer and sell more than one-fifth of the firm.
"Some of the real acquisitive guys may come in with a huge
bid and the whole company could get sold," the newspaper quoted
the unnamed source as saying.
The report follows an announcement from FerroChina last month
that it had hired Merrill Lynch as its strategic advisor.
In March, FerroChina executive director Nelson Fong told
Reuters that the company would consider long-term alliances or
strategic investments by outside parties, but he said the owners
would want to retain some control.

Stocks rise and Dow crosses 13,000 as dollar advances

Does it mean that out of bear and into early bull or just bear market rally? I bet on early bull. Cheers!

------------------------------------------------------------
Stocks rise and Dow crosses 13,000 as dollar advances
Thursday May 1, 6:21 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
The Dow Jones industrials cross 13,000 as dollar soars and optimism rises about economy


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street shot higher Thursday as investors, while anticipating another dismal jobs report Friday, viewed the rising dollar and falling oil prices as promising signs for the economy. The Dow Jones industrial average soared nearly 190 points to close above 13,000 for the first time since Jan. 3.
ADVERTISEMENT


The dollar jumped on better-than-expected economic data and the Federal Reserve's apparent resolve to monitor inflation. The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.4 percent in March, more than predicted, and the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing contracted in April by a bit less than anticipated.

The readings were not all positive -- consumer spending ticked higher mainly due to rising energy and food prices. The ISM's report also indicated that companies are hurting from climbing costs.

But the dollar, which has recently strengthened after a protracted decline, rallied anyway, pushing the euro down more than 1 percent to $1.5461 in late trading. Trading was thin, with major currency markets in London and elsewhere closed for the May Day holiday, but the dollar's advance helped crude oil fall briefly near $110 a barrel and then settle at $112.52. That alleviated some of the inflation-related anxieties in the market, given that crude recently traded at a record near $120 a barrel.

"I don't know if it's all turned around, but I think oil got out of control," said Todd Leone, managing director of equity trading at Cowen & Co.

The Dow rose 189.87, or 1.48 percent, to 13,010.00, after briefly rising more than 200 points. It hadn't closed above 13,000 since Jan. 3, when it ended at 13,056.72; the Dow is still down 8.15 percent from its record close of 14,164.53, reached Oct. 9, 2007, before the brunt of the credit crisis hit Wall Street.

Broader stock indicators also enjoyed a significant advance Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 23.75, or 1.71 percent, to 1,409.34 -- its first settlement above 1,400 since Jan. 14. The Nasdaq composite index climbed 67.91, or 2.81 percent, to 2,480.71, its highest close since Jan. 10.

The dollar's rise came a day after the Fed lowered key interest rates by a quarter-point, but indicated the economy should keep growing moderately, while inflation is the growing concern.

"What we're seeing is that maybe the economy is not falling off a cliff, but perhaps leveling off," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at New York-based brokerage house Avalon Partners Inc. "I think the Fed (rate-cutting campaign) is over with, even though the Fed's statement didn't say that."

The economic assessment statement accompanying the Fed's rate decision was unclear about its policy going forward, but it has been widely believed that the central bank will pause following a string of cuts that lowered rates by 3 percentage points since last summer.

On Thursday, banks, homebuilders, chip makers and retailers surged, after getting battered earlier this year due to worries about the mortgage crisis and its effect on the global economy.

Bond prices fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.77 percent by late trading from 3.73 percent late Wednesday.

As the dollar moved higher against other currencies, gold prices dropped.

Investors are predicting another gloomy reading on U.S. employment on Friday. The Labor Department's report is expected to show a 75,000 net loss in jobs for April -- which would be the fourth straight month of losses -- and a rise in unemployment to 5.2 percent from 5.1 percent in March. In a negative sign ahead of that data, the government said Thursday the number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits increased by a greater-than-expected 35,000 last week.

However, with the government sending stimulus checks to taxpayers and Fed rate cuts still working their way through the financial system, many investors are focused on the second half of the year, when they are betting the economy will rebound.

Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp., one of the 30 Dow components, declined $3.37, or 3.6 percent, to $89.70, after it said its first-quarter profit rose 17 percent to $11 billion -- not as high as analysts expected, despite record-high oil prices. Lower production volumes caused the company's profit margins to shrink.

But on the whole, corporate profits have been coming in a bit stronger over the past few weeks than the market had expected. Meanwhile, spreads between rates on riskier securities and rates on safer issues have been narrowing, indicating that the credit markets are getting back to normal.

After the Fed's rate cut Wednesday, that pattern continued Thursday. Bank stocks benefited -- Citigroup Inc. rose $1.04, or 4.2 percent, to $25.99; Bank of America Corp. rose $1.85, or 4.9 percent, to $39.39; and JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose $1.60, or 3.4 percent, to $49.25.

In another sign that the financial sector is on the mend, the Fed said late Thursday that investment firms averaged a relatively low $18.6 billion in daily borrowing over the past week from the Fed's emergency lending program. Earlier Thursday, the Fed auctioned off $24.12 billion in super-safe Treasury securities to big investment firms.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 13.57, or 1.89 percent, to 729.75.

Advancing issues more than doubled decliners on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume amounted to 4.32 billion, up from 3.66 billion shares traded Wednesday.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.60 percent. Markets in much of the world, including Europe and Hong Kong, were closed for May Day.

Thursday, 1 May 2008

Hyflux - cover story in The Edge, Apr 28, 2008

Most water stocks in singapore are small and unnoticed by investors. But that could change as their order books swell. Hyflux has already doubled its order book to %1.5B and significantly improved its earning visibility for the next two years. Does it means Hyflux will begin to attract smart money?

STI High - Low

Wednesday, 30 April 2008

Portfolio update: Bought Synear $0.595 and Cosco $3.22

Hyflux: Won more projects in China

Hyflux has been winning more projects; but, it does not seem move any higher and also daily volume is low. Why? Smart money not interested in the next big thing - water after oil meh? I used CPF fund to hold Hyflux for long term till 2011 - another 3 years to go. I believe in Olivia's dream


The Moisture Merchant
Dealing in Liquid Assets
By JAKE LLOYD-SMITH

Posted Monday, April 5, 2004
Olivia Lum, head of the fast-growing water-treatment company Hyflux, never knew her biological parents. She was adopted at birth by an elderly woman she called Grandma, and home was Kampar, a poor Malaysian mining town where an exodus of jobs had left most residents with no income. After Grandma sold her house to pay some gambling debts, Lum was brought up in a wooden shack without running water—unless you counted the rainwater that would regularly seep in and flood the floors. To keep Grandma's spirits up, Lum used to say that when she made it big, she would buy her a new house. "Of course it never happened," Lum says. "She died before I became successful."

Lum found her success in the water business. She worked her way through college and earned a chemistry degree, but she always saw the business world as the way to climb out of poverty. Fifteen years ago, drawing on her meager savings, she founded Hyflux (NCC: $20K from her saving), a company that pursued a wide range of water-related ventures in Asia, from cleaning wastewater in China to investing in desalination plants in Singapore.

Today, Hyflux is one of the hottest firms in the Asian water market, and under Lum's leadership it has scored a number of R.-and-D. breakthroughs. In the 1990s, the company developed an ultrafine membrane filter (pictured above) that is used in all the company's major products. More recently, Hyflux, in association with a U.S. group, began manufacturing a condensing device called the Dragonfly, which produces potable water by extracting moisture from air—and could change the way water-scarce countries meet their daily water needs. There are some drawbacks: the surrounding air must have at least 40% humidity, and each device costs about $1,000. Lum, however, insists that the unit price will fall as her team refines the design, and says Dragonflys may soon be found in refrigerators and even cars.

Hyflux is now a $270 million company, and Lum's biggest challenge will be to sustain its rapid growth. "There are further good years ahead," says Kerryn Tay, an analyst at GK Goh Research in Singapore, pointing to growing demand for Hyflux's products in China and government support at home. For her part, the hardworking Lum wants Hyflux to be worth $3 billion within five years. Grandma would approve




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AWARD OF WATER TREATMENT PROJECTS ESTIMATED AT RMB 371
MILLION IN CHINA

Hyflux is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiaries (collectively referred
to as "Hyflux") have been awarded two water treatment projects worth about RMB
361 million in the Jiangsu Province in China.


HYFLUX WON BID FOR WORLD’S LARGEST REVERSE OSMOSIS MEMBRANE
DESALINATION PLANT IN ALGERIA
· Project value is S$632 million
· Project almost doubled order book to S$1.5 billion
· The largest contract undertaken by the Group to-date
· The single largest ultrafiltration plant leveraging award-winning
proprietary membrane
Singapore, April 22, 2008 – Hyflux Ltd (“Hyflux”), a leading provider of integrated
environmental solutions, has won the bid for the world’s largest seawater desalination
plant in Algeria, with a project value of US$468 million (about S$632 million).

Monday, 28 April 2008

Sunday, 27 April 2008

Kep and SCI - XD on 29 Apr 08

Let see any buying interest on Kep and SCI after last Friday selldown on Kep and SCI. Monday will be the last day to collect dividend, Kep $0.55 and SCI $0.15.

Good dividend yield play.

Saturday, 26 April 2008

FerroChina 1QFY08

FerroChina continues strong performance, posting
triple-digits revenue and earnings growth for 1QFY08

Will it run up on Monday?

Friday, 25 April 2008

Portfolio update: Sold STX 3.74 ROC 17.1%. Bought YZJ 1.10, WMI 4.66



Bought STX @ $3.17 on 7 Mar 08 after its pullback; but, it came crashing down all the way to $2.32 (-27% paper loss).

Thursday, 24 April 2008

Tuesday, 22 April 2008

Trading For A Living

By Geoff Turnbull

There can’t be many traders who haven’t at least considered the idea of telling the boss what they think of him, throwing it all in and going off to trade the stock market for a living. It’s a big risk financially, and that uncertainty is what stops most from jumping ship. Is it really possible to trade for a living?

The Dream

You know how it is, you’re sitting in a traffic jam at some unearthly hour of a particularly wet and miserable morning, on the way to the same office you have sat in for too long to remember, and you’re thinking - there must be a better way – life shouldn’t have to be like this.

Your mind starts to wander and you find yourself thinking back to that stock you bought only a week ago, and how it skyrocketed giving you enough profit to takes the kids to Disneyland in the summer, and you begin to consider if you couldn’t make a fulltime living at this trading game.

The advantages are certainly tempting; no more pointless meetings with the manager, hours to suit, holidays whenever you feel like it, and with your home-office - no more traffic jams.
Heck, come to that you could even make home anywhere you want it to be! By the time the traffic starts moving again. you’re busily calculating how much cash you could make if all your trades went like that last one - you’re almost ready to write your notice letter there and then!

The Bad News

Time for a reality check. Certainly all of the above benefits are there to be enjoyed, but it’s a huge step from full time employee to full time trader. Are you really ready to give up that monthly pay-check just yet? Can you really cope not knowing how much money you’re going to make month to month? Are you prepared for the months when you actually lose money instead of make it? There are many things to consider before taking the leap of faith.

Considerations

Before you even think about trading for a living you have to know how much money you need to live on, that is, how much cash do you need to generate every month in order to survive. As a financially minded person you already have good home accounts, or are at the very least vaguely aware of where the money goes. So take the annual figure (monthly is no good, you need to account for annual recurring items like insurance premiums, car servicing, and vacations), add 50% and divide by 12. Why add 50%? Because there will always be unexpected expenses, and as traders we are always prepared to expect the unexpected.

Now you know how much money you need each month, you can look at your savings and work out how much buffer money you have, that is, how long you could survive without earning anything at all. You can’t expect to be an instantly profitable trader, and even the best and most experienced have periods of drawdown, so you need to be ready for the worst. If you can’t live for at least six months from your savings then you are probably under capitalised and are not ready to give up that pay-check just yet.

An important but often overlooked aspect of under capitalisation is the effect it will have on your trading; if you are trading because you need the money, then you are trading scared and you’re almost certainly going to lose. You cannot distance yourself from the money-aspect of the trade if you are relying on the money.

Living expenses are only one part of the financial equation. Next you must consider how much trading capital you need. This is the money actually facilitate trading, in other words your account balance for trading margin, and the money you will be spending on data feeds, software, and internet access. You must account for this separately, you cannot start eating into your daily living expenses money just because you took a bad trade and need some more margin.

The amount of trading capital you require will depend very much on your trading style. To day trade the US Stock Markets for example, you must have at least $25,000 in your account, so budget for $30,000 to allow for positions moving against you (if you fall below the $25k minimum even briefly, your account can be frozen for up to three months). If you are holding positions overnight you may manage with a lower balance but bear in mind your buying power and consequently returns will be reduced.

If all this is starting to sound expensive, well it is. There’s no two ways about it, you simply cannot survive long term as a trader if you are under funded.

This article will be concluded in part two.

About The Author
Geoff Turnbull is a full time day trader, and a contributor to http://www.stock-trading-world.com

In part 1 of this article I started to look at the financial implications of giving up the day job to instead start trading full time for a living. There are more than just monetary considerations as we will see later, but for now, there are some more costs to ponder.

More Costs!

Let’s move on to equipment. Presumably you already have a PC and internet connection by virtue of the fact you are reading this on the internet. But are these both up to the job of trading full time? Again the specifications for both hardware and ISP will depend largely on your trading style, but if you’re relying on a 100Mhz Pentium II and a dial up service, you’re setting yourself up for failure. So budget for quality equipment, budget to keep it up to spec, and budget for some repairs too – expect the unexpected.

Many traders make the mistake of saying “This will do me whilst I start out, and I’ll get something better when I make some real money”. This is quite simply false economy, you are unlikely to ever make real money with a substandard setup (and this applies equally to substandard software and data feeds). This is a cut-throat business and 95% fail, you must give yourself every advantage you can. You wouldn’t enter the Indy 500 in a go-kart with the intention of buying a better car when you’ve won a few races, and the same thing applies here.

Earnings

When you’ve added this all together, you have a pretty good picture of how much money you need to generate from your trading in order to live. Does your past performance suggest you will be able to meet this target? It’s tempting to say “When I go full time I’ll make much more”, but how do you know this is the case? Perhaps you can take a couple of weeks holiday and try it out – if you don’t make enough in that two weeks then you’re not ready. A few weeks really isn’t enough time to know if you’re going to succeed though. An ideal next step then is to cut your day job hours to part time and trade maybe two or three days a week. This way you know you have some money coming in, you get to trade for real, and if it all goes horribly wrong you are probably better placed to get back into full time employment than someone who quit the working world completely.

The option of part time work is a luxury many of us don’t have however. So does it have to be all or nothing – trade or work? Why not keep the day job and trade outside your working hours as well. If you are trading and end of day strategy, then this is easily achieved by doing your research in the evening and placing the appropriate combinations of Stop and Limit orders with your broker.

For day traders, certainly practising is easier if your intended market is not your home market, for example if you want to trade the US and you live in the UK where you can come home and paper trade in the evening.

There are other try before you buy options open to the day traders who want to practise trading their home market outside of normal hours though. eSignal allows you to download tick data for any symbol and play it back in real time or speeded up so you could trade the whole day in an hour. Other vendors have similar offerings, and if you have an IB account you can use AutoTrader to record tick data during the day for playback into a demo version of SierraCharts or QuoteTracker for free.

The bottom line here is that before you take the plunge, you need to have done everything in your power to prepare yourself for what lies ahead. It will still be harder than you ever thought, but it will be nigh on impossible with no preparation whatsoever.

Other Considerations

There are a few non-financial aspects to consider before going full time with your trading. If you have a family, how will the change impact them? Do you have the space to work uninterrupted during the day? It’s important that the family don’t assume that because you are at home you are automatically available to take the kids to school, or walk the dog. Make sure from the start that everybody knows the ground rules and that you can separate your working time from your free time effectively.

Consider also the social impact of leaving your full time employer. Again, if you have a partner or family are you going to drive each other nuts being in the same house all day? Relationships can be tested to the limit! Or if you live alone, are you going to drive yourself nuts being on your own all day? Trading full time can give you enormous amounts of free time, but if you have nothing to fill that time with you can quickly lose the plot – I’ve seen it happen and it’s not pretty.

Is It Worth It?

Nobody can tell you if trading for a living is for you, it’s something you have to find out for yourself. I’ve seen traders go through highs and lows to challenge those of any stock chart, but for most it has proved to be a good move. The long list of benefits are all there for the taking, as with any change of career or indeed any major life change, as long as you go into it with your eyes open, and above all prepare, then there is no reason why it cannot work for you.

About The Author
Geoff Turnbull is a full time day trader,

Sunday, 20 April 2008

Semb Corp

With dividend of $0.15 and XD on 29 Apr, will there be panic buying by funds the next week in view of DOW closing +1.81%

Friday, 18 April 2008

Stocks Take Flight on Earnings Blast

U.S. stocks soared at the opening bell Friday amid renewed hope that the worst is over for financials. Solid earnings from a few Dow components also gave the market strength.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 200 points, or 1.5 percent, in the first five minutes of trading.


Does this means the worst is over?

Bear market end tonite?

I think DOW will rally tonite and put the bear to sleep. STI on Monday will rally. Don't miss the boat.

I did not take profit lately as I am expecting big rally in STI should be coming soon.

Monday, 7 April 2008

Book: The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douuglas

Available in NLB. This book has been recommended by some top traders themselves. It is about preparing ourselves psychologically for trading.

Is the worst over?

Reuters
World stocks power to one-month high
Monday April 7, 4:07 am ET
By Natsuko Waki


LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks hit a fresh one-month high and the dollar rose on Monday, bolstered by firmer commodity prices and growing expectations that banks are close to cleaning up their credit-related troubles.
ADVERTISEMENT


Optimism also stemmed from speculation that finance chiefs from the Group of Seven rich nations, meeting in Washington this weekend, are considering drastic steps to fix banks and markets battered by the U.S. mortgage meltdown.

Portfolio update - add more SCI @ 4.18 on its pullback

Wednesday, 2 April 2008

Is Market Rout Nearing End? Cheers!!!!

UBS, Lehman Capital Raisings May Signal Market Rout Nearing End

By Elena Logutenkova and Aaron Kirchfeld

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Securities sales by UBS AG, the world's largest money manager, and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. underpinned a rally in financial stocks yesterday that may signal an end to eight months of market turmoil.

UBS, battered by the biggest writedowns from the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, announced plans to seek 15 billion Swiss francs ($14.8 billion) in a rights offer to replenish capital, while New York-based Lehman, the fourth- largest U.S. securities firm, raised $4 billion in a stock sale.

The fund-raising plans quelled speculation the companies might follow New York-based Bear Stearns Cos., which agreed to sell itself last month to JPMorgan Chase & Co. for a fraction of its market value after a run on the company. Investors looked past Zurich-based UBS's 12 billion-Swiss franc first-quarter loss disclosed yesterday after record writedowns on debt securities, as well as Deutsche Bank AG's $3.9 billion of markdowns.

``When UBS does a massively dilutive deal and the stock still goes up, that's helpful,'' said Henry Herrmann, chief executive officer of Overland Park, Kansas-based Waddell & Reed Financial Inc., which manages $65 billion. ``It's a rally associated with the presumed elimination of survival risk. The market's getting a little more comfortable that the crisis is over.''

UBS rose 12.3 percent in Swiss trading, the biggest gain in two weeks, leading a 5.1 percent rally in the 60-member Bloomberg Banks and Financial Services Index. The company has lost 55 percent of market value during the past 12 months.

`Enough Demand'

Chairman Marcel Ospel, 58, who helped form UBS through a merger a decade ago, will be replaced by general counsel Peter Kurer. UBS said it plans more job cuts at the investment bank and will set up a separate unit to segregate assets at risk from the credit-market meltdown.

Lehman advanced 17.8 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the most in two weeks, after increasing the size of its sale to 4 million convertible preferred shares from 3 million and saying demand ``significantly'' outpaced supply. Investors paid $1,000 for each Lehman preferred stock, which can convert to 20.0509 common shares once the stock reaches $49.87, or 32 percent higher than the closing price on March 31.

``Investors were worried that these big writedowns were going to impede their ability to raise capital,'' said William Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Optique Capital in Racine, Wisconsin, which owned 565,000 Citigroup Inc. shares as of Dec. 31. ``The way Lehman was able to bring in capital, that mitigates a lot of that risk. Clearly there's enough demand for these companies that raising capital is no longer the major overhang.''

Debt Writedowns

The debt market turmoil spurred by rising U.S. mortgage defaults hasn't abated, and presents the most severe crisis for banks in 30 years, Morgan Stanley and management-consulting firm Oliver Wyman said in a joint report yesterday.

The world's biggest financial companies reported about $232 billion in credit losses and writedowns since the start of 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In all, investment banks may post $75 billion in markdowns in 2008, the report from analysts led by London-based Huw van Steenis said. Revenue from investment banking may drop 20 percent in 2008, with credit businesses declining 60 percent, the analysts said.

Deutsche Bank, which operates Europe's biggest investment bank by revenue, said yesterday that it expects to book first- quarter writedowns on leveraged loans, commercial real estate and residential mortgage-backed securities. The Frankfurt-based company said market conditions ``have become significantly more challenging.''

``I don't see how many banks are going to sustain revenue because parts of the business have disappeared due to the financial crisis,'' said Stefan Mueller, a managing partner at Proprietary Partners AG, a Frankfurt fund management company.

Federal Reserve

While investors agree that more writedowns and share-price swings are inevitable, Kevin Rendino, who runs the $6.5 billion BlackRock Basic Value Fund in Plainsboro, New Jersey, found cause for encouragement.

``You want to get all the bad assets off the balance sheets, and the banks are in the process of doing that,'' Rendino said in an interview. ``You're seeing the writeoffs, the charges and the replenishment of the balance sheets, so all that's good.''

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its main lending rate on March 18 by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent. The central bank also started a lending program for brokers, which is similar to the so-called discount window used by commercial banks, after the run on Bear Stearns.

``You can't ignore what the Fed has done,'' Rendino said. ``It's been a game-changing set of events over the last couple months. It doesn't make the bad assets worth more but it's going to be good for banks and it creates a better environment for financials going forward.''

Saturday, 29 March 2008

STI direction?




STI has staged a good recovery. Will the momentum continue?

Synear has also made good recovery and I will hold Synear for long term as history has shown that companies that have exposure to Olympic Sponsorship will have strong branding and their sales will do well.

Tuesday, 25 March 2008

Portfolio update - Contra NOL

Monday, 24 March 2008

Friday, 21 March 2008

DOW bullish closing before long weekend



Looking at bullish closing of DOW before a long weekend and the intra day, it was real bullish buying with heavy volume. Will STI play catch up next week?

Sunday, 16 March 2008

I do not Use Stops Here is Why...

http://www.themoneyblogs.com/steve/my.blog/i-dont-use-stops-heres-why.html

Reproduced here:

Don't Use Stops, Here's Why...
Posted on 03/01/2007 08:08:15 | Link | Post Comment

One rule that we often hear as traders is to, “always use protective stops” on every trade. When I first started trading about 7 years ago, I did not use stops. At the time, I had several trades that had collapsed because of “unexpected bad news.” One bad trade would sometimes cost me 5-10% of my total account value. As I looked back at my account statements, I would think--“if it wasn’t for this 1 bad trade, I would have done pretty well this month.”

Unfortunately, I quickly realized that those “bad trades” are just part of trading; you can’t avoid them. It’s just impossible. Soon, I read some of the wonderful books by Bill O’Neil who professes that you must have a 7-8% stop on every trade so that you can never lose too much money on any one single trade. I felt enlightened. I felt that all of those “bad trades” that I had had would soon go away and that my “true” performance could finally shine through.

What I learned was that the “bad trades” did for the most part, go away, but many of my successful trades went away too. In the end, my trading performance became even worse than during the time before I was using the stops. I began “stopping out” on lots of trades. To anyone that has been through this, you quickly realize that compounding 7% (or even 2% for that matter) losses causes your account to go down fairly quickly. So even though, you can’t get “too hurt” on any one trade, you can get very hurt by lots of small losses on many “bad trades.”

This led to my next revelation. Brace yourself. What if I did the exact opposite of what I was doing? If I was dying a slow death from having “protective stops” on all of my trades--I thought... what if I got rid of the “protective stops,” and made all of of my trades have limit sell orders (for a gain).

In other words, I let my losers run, and I stopped out of my winners. Heresy! Guess what--it worked. All I did was create a trading plan that was the opposite of everyone else’s. The biggest problem with doing this, is that I couldn’t stomach it. It only made sense, that eventually I would be a loser. Well, all in all, I was a winner. But, this experience began my pursuit of a trading style without using stops.

What I learned was that I needed to learn how to manage my own risk without using stops. Using stops is asking an external tool (the stop itself) to manage your risk. You always have to pay to have someone else or something else manage your risk, and the flip side of that is that you get paid for managing your own risk.

This is the concept behind mortgage pricing. Fixed 30 year mortgages cost more because the institution is managing the risks involved with interest rate fluctuations. In contrast, for a 1 year variable loan, you as the borrower carry that risk, and you pay less for your money over the long term for doing that.

Anyway, I am digressing. In terms of the market, you need to learn how to carry your own risk. I do this in my own account by making sure that my position sizing is relatively small amount based on the variability of the stock relative to my account size.

In other words, for the time frame that I trade, 1-14 days--I look back and make sure that if the worst move that has ever happened in the last year to that particular stock happened again--it would effect less than 1% of my account equity.

On top of that I use options so that I have an absolute floor to my losses. That works for me. The end result is that when whatever position I’m in is shaking people out, I can wait patiently for my exit point (which is based on an indicator, not an absolute price).

This means that even after adverse moves, I am still, almost always getting out of my positions after some up move. I don’t sell when other are selling, and I don’t buy when others are buying. I do the opposite. It is really one of the keys to trading, to be contrarian, to be alone.

It is hard. If you don’t believe me, try going to the movies by yourself tonight--it’s just not that fun being alone. But in the market, it pays.

And, for all of the numbers junkies like myself. Here is are some results from just 1of the systems that I trade with and without systems. The data looks similar to this for just about all of the systems that I trade.


---------------------------------No Stops-------With Stops (20%)
Compounded Annual Growth--36%--------31%
Max Monthly Draw Down ------6.6%---------7.8%
Sharpe Ratio ------------------2.00---------1.79
% Average Gain ---------------3.2%---------2.8%
% Average Loss ----------------5.1%---------6.9%

This is just one example of many.

Lastly, thanks to everyone who’s been writing me while I haven’t been writing. I got really tied up with taxes, work, blah blah blah.

Good Luck,

Steve


1 Comments:
I too have learned that using stops is a great way to lose money. I have found that if I make what I think are great entries and it goes against me, I will inevitably get stopped out before it turns around and goes back up. I am very careful about not being the "greatest fool" and yet I find that almost every time the trade will initially go against me, sometimes hideously, but it always comes back. For this reason, I have found that "scaling in" works best together with patience.

Wednesday, 12 March 2008

Portfolio update - Bought SCI 4.08

Friday, 7 March 2008

Portfolio update - Buy back STX @ 3.17




I am not too worry about buying STX as there will be Korean bargain hunters waiting. You only have to look at this to judge it.

STX Pan Ocean Co., Ltd. (“the Company”) wishes to announce the number of the
Company's shares migrated between Singapore Exchange (“SGX”) and Korea Exchange
(“KRX”), which is a mandatory disclosure under the KRX Listing rule 31-2. The details
of the migration of shares are set out as below: -
1. Details of share migration (As of 6th March 2008)
Daily number of shares migrated from SGX to KRX: 8,010,000
Daily number of shares migrated from KRX to SGX : Nil
Net number of shares migrated this month : 25,203,000
2. Date of Confirmation : 7 March 2008

Thursday, 6 March 2008

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