From Investing cyberspace ...
命里無時，求之不來 ...$DBS(D05.SI)
床前明月光，疑是地上霜。
舉頭希望 37.00，低頭見 6.00
Uncle8888 never fail to smile whenever this Guru 低頭見 6.00 and recalled his ex-colleague's real wait for DBS $6 to happen in 2009. LOL!
Read? DBS : ONE STEP CLOSER TO SGD 6.00 (2)
1.5 to 2 times the force of GFC coming for DBS to go down to $6?
Read? The Secret Behind Buy And Hold And Then Laughing To The Bank Revealed! (2)
Buy back is not easy due to our last ACTION price anchoring bias! --> Read? On why sound investing principles will always work??? (2)
Posts
Uncle8888,
ReplyDeleteBad news sell more than good news. ;)
Did the guru show screenshot of his open short positions on DBS? Lol.
As a statistics & numbers person, what I'm going to say will seem out of character:
If one wishes to engage in longer term big amount buy, hold, sell, buy, hold, sell etc should look at "flows" & "energies", rather than focus on 1 or a handful of hard numbers.
This "stock qi" or "market qi" can be roughly seen in longer term charts. If you have a mathematical mind like Buffett or Munger, you can also probably construct the patterns in your head from the raw numbers.
Temporary anchoring on prices may be more suitable for short term trades, where prices can jump between a range for a while ... irrespective whether the major trend is down, sideways or up.
At the start of 2020, there was US$4.0192 trillion in circulation (this was the record then, the long hangover from GFC/QE). Thank to COVID, this increased to US$6.7 trillion by Jan 2021. Then Biden came along, the Fed went into overdrive, by October 21 it was US$20.08 trillion. Other than the US$, any other currencies would would have collapsed big time even a tiny fraction of such sum of money was printed. Then the Fed repeated the same trick as it did in 2014/15, up interest rate to "combat inflation". Parking funds in money in US$ becomes attractive, and the US$ strengthen instead of weaken, thereby curing the US of the ill effects of money printing ! The current global inflation is partially due to this irresponsible money printing (on the pretext of saving the "world" from the economic fallout of COVID, actually to serve US' interests more than anything else). In fact, the US is partially responsible for at least 2 other factors that brings about the current inflation - the Ukraine war & the energy crisis, global warming & its adverse effect on crop production. Arguably US also plays a part in supply chain disruption, an indirect consequence of its China "decoupling" strategy.
ReplyDeleteWhen Nixon unpegged US$ from gold on 15 August 1971 (thereby giving the US the license to print money at will, US$ being supported by petrol money, amongst others), 1 ounce of gold = US$35. Now it is US$1,800 per ounce. If we accept that gold maintains its value as a desired commodity with finite supply, then the US$ is currently grossly over valued (by at least 50 times).
No, the US is not foolish to start a proxy war with China (in the same vein as the Ukraine war). The current dominant view in the US is that such a war is in the US strategic interest. This is the Wolfowitz Doctrine (an extension of the 2 century old Monroe Doctrine), which surfaced after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 (to prevent by all means the re-emergence of a new rival to the US in global dominance). Cries to ignite a war with China (albeit a proxy one) have became louder in recent years, see Graham Allison (author of "Destined for War") and Elbridge Colby (the strategy of Denial - a desirable war in the Taiwan Straits). See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEchkn3unl8