Uncle8888 learnt first hand through Crash got Sound when he was reaching 55!
Same same!
It happened to Uncle8888 when he was near 55! So what is stopping Mr Market from repeating History when you are reaching 65!
1M65 is real wealth in CPF; but 4M65 through investing in the market is an illusionary wealth depending on market timing; so we better be lucky to survive through market cycles to cash out and keep it safe or return 4M back to CPF for real 4M65 when we are nearer to 65!
Long, long ago, in his late 40s; his long time FA shared this CPF SA hack (or he was actually hacked); and of course he would believe in good story of maximizing his SA and RA 4% compound interests; and invested $100K from CPF SA in XXX Global Balanced Fund!
Global Balanced Fund should closely match 4% CPF SA risk free return. Right? Don't ever believe projected return!
Hmm .. Uncle8888 was once also into passive investing! LOL!
May be Uncle8888 is just unlucky as this XXX Global balanced fund happened to go through GFC; but when it started to recover he was nearer to 55 and decided it was time be realistic that it is NOT easy to beat 4% year on year compounded interests in CPF SA or CPF RA. He sold this fund and refund back to CPF SA.
Happy lor as there is net profit after GFC Big Bear ....
Read? Turning 55 Soon? Here's A CPF Special Account Hack You'd Want To Know!
Posts
Spur,
ReplyDeleteYou are right.
"The price? Higher volatility, but in these cases, you're rewarded for taking on extra risk over the longer term. Most people don't have the stomach or patience. ;)"
Smol,
DeleteLol!
I'll cut Uncle8888 some slack. It's a really really high bar to hit SA's risk free 4+% rate.
If the opportunity cost is a risk free 2%, then it's another thing.
So no surprise that anyone will have a change of heart especially when age is of concern & you're going thru bear markets in real time.
(Err no, I'm not calling Uncle8888 old :P )
I have never invested my SA as the risk-reward doesn't make much sense. Ok maybe I'm old lol.
I took a glance at the funds currently approved for SA and they're mostly active bond funds ... Really really crap.
Anyway the better funds that have a chance of beating their index are usually Asian equity or balanced fund.
And there's an Asian balanced fund which launched in June 2003 (good timing by the fund house, near the market low), which is very popular with SA investors.
Total returns from June 2003 to June 2022 is 208% ... you more than tripled your money. CAGR of 6.1%.
Bad news? During GFC it dropped -35%.
If you didn't invest & left it in SA, returns will be 111% in the same 19 yrs.
So one has to ask himself if the extra 100% return is worth the -35% drop, and whether he has the time of 10+ years for the outperformance to really beat SA's 4%?
For those with runway of 20 yrs & iron stomach, sure go for it.
For old foggies, probably the only time to even consider is when major stock markets have dropped at least -40%. In this case, the major Asian stock markets.
I didn't invest SA during GFC as this fund was still relatively new & unproven in bear markets, other SA funds uninspiring, and of course bxlls dropped after > -$450K drawdown in my cash portfolio. 😖
Spur,
DeleteI trolling ;)
If CW had bought his balanced fund 1 year AFTER the GFC and sold it last year when both equities and bonds were having their best bull runs, the story would have been different...
Which goes to show how crucial Market Timing is - entry important; exit lagi important!!!
So much for anytime is a good time; don't wait for a correction...
What can go wrong? Its CPF approved leh!
The biggest danger is when the CPF acolyte, flushed with 1M at 65, but have ZERO experience how hard and volatile it is in the Earn More arena, decides to capitulate and join us on the Earn More path as a "virgin" at the "young" age of 65...
Either he develops a hole-in-the-heart seeing his peers having 4M65, or he got "persuaded" by a sweet young thing in tight skirt showing him charts of S&P500 averaging 8%-10%, and reminding him inflation is running at 5%...
Hey! My money is rotting in CPF!!!
How do I open a CPFIS account?
P.S. Youths who lost everything in their crypto ventures but survived may become better Earn More practitioners. Losing money is like taking vaccinations shots for the Wuhan virus. Even veterans like us have to take booster shots from time to time!!!
At the very least, you'll know how to tell the difference between snake oil "projections" and those who let their track records do the talking.
CW is one who lets his track records do the talking ;)