I started serious Investing Journey in Jan 2000 to create wealth through long-term investing and short-term trading; but as from April 2013 my Journey in Investing has changed to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Since 2017 after retiring from full-time job as employee; I am moving towards Investing Nirvana - Freehold Investment Income for Life investing strategy where 100% of investment income from portfolio investment is cashed out to support household expenses i.e. not a single cent of re-investing!

It is 57% (2017 to Aug 2022) to the Land of Investing Nirvana - Freehold Income for Life!


Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Saturday, 20 November 2010

Long-term investing and short-term trading? (2)

Read? Long-term investing and short-term trading?


What does the Market say about long-term investing?

Can long-term investing still be rewarding even with dividends accumulation?


Friday, 19 November 2010

Long-term investing and short-term trading?

What do I mean by long-term investing and short-term trading?

The same counter can be for long-term investing and short-term trading. Why not?

Some examples:

Long-term investing

  • The oldest stock position that I am still holding since 2001 is Kep Corp. At today closing price, it is a 6.5 baggers.
  • The newest stock position that I am still holding since 2008 is Noble. At today closing price, it is a 2 baggers.
Short-term trading


      Portfolio Management - Returns and Risks of losing it back!

      Read? earlier articles related to the topics - Portfolio Management

      Don't be fooled into thinking that your success as a stock investor is measured by the increase in the value of your portfolio's holdings. It may be not. What you really want is to make the most returns with the least risk to your investing capital.

      In simple term, you may need to fully understand the wisdom of the ancient Chinese's saying in investing: 见好就收. (It means that if there is a reasonable profit for yourself, don’t be greedy to risk further by wanting more, one should take back one's capital and its returns and leave some on the table for others.)


      Don't ever let this happen to you!
      Read another related ancient wisdom? 3 Ms of Trading – Mind, Method and Money - Part 3



      Thursday, 18 November 2010

      DBS 4.70% OFFER OF NON-CUMULATIVE, NON-CONVERTIBLE, NON-VOTING PREFERENCE SHARES MORE THAN 3.5 TIMES SUBSCRIBED

      Offer attracts total applications amounting to more than SGD 1.8 billion; to cater to strong retail demand, DBS increases offer size from original SGD 500m to SGD 800m



      SINGAPORE, 18 November 2010 - DBS Bank announced today that its offer of SGD 500 million in aggregate liquidation preference of 4.70% non-cumulative, non-convertible and non-voting preference shares has closed. The offer attracted strong interest and was more than 3.5 times subscribed.


      As at the close of the offer at noon today, total applications amounting to more than SGD 1.8 billion had been received. Of this, retail subscriptions via ATMs and Internet banking alone amounted to more than SGD 1.4 billion, while the placement and reserve tranches meant for institutional investors and employees of DBS saw total demand of more than SGD 400 million.

      To accommodate the strong retail demand from the Singapore public, the bank exercised its upsize option in full, to increase the total size of the preference share offer from SGD 500 million to SGD 800 million. DBS has allocated the bulk of this, or SGD 550 million, to meet retail demand. The remaining SGD 250 million has been allocated to the placement and reserve tranches.

      Occam's Razor in TA and FA?

      Occam's Razor: "one should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything."

      “The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct.” or "Simply put, the simpler one is generally correct."
       
      Yeah. To apply Occam's Razor in my stock analysis:

      • By simplifying my TA, I just look at support, resistance, price-volume actions, and trend lines.

      • By simplifying my FA, I just look at consistency in dividends and low dividend payout ratio. Dividends are real money paying out by a company, and can only be sustainable if company continues to have cold hard cash from its business. Probably, this is the only indicator in FA that really matters; anything else are just guess works by retail investors who have limited resources to do anything substantial.
      Read? Fundamental or Technical Analysis? - Revisit 3

      Read? Pareto Principle

      Wednesday, 17 November 2010

      Best Dividend Strategy?

      Read?  High-yield, low-payout stocks stand out!

      Learn to look at TSR (Total Shareholder Returns) when investing in the stock market.

      High dividend High Payout = Good TSR
      High dividend High Payout + Capital Growth = Better TSR
      High dividend Low Payout + Capital Growth + Dividend Growth = Best TSR

      When investing, go for the Best TSR!

      HK: Shares fall 2%

      HONG KONG - Hong Kong shares fell 2.02 per cent on Wednesday on concerns about Chinese anti-inflation measures and the eurozone's debt worries, while Shanghai dropped 1.92 per cent.

      The benchmark Hang Seng Index lost 478.56 points to end at 23,214.46 on turnover of HK$103.04 billion (US$13.30 billion).

      Chinese shares closed down 1.92 per cent as investors continued to mull the possibility of more policy steps to curb inflation, dealers said.

      The Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A and B shares, was down 55.68 points at 2,838.86 on turnover of 158.7 billion yuan (US$23.9 billion). -- AFP

      High-yield, low-payout stocks stand out!

      Read? High-yield, low-payout stocks stand out

      (Re-post it under label for Education - Trading - Dividend Yield)

      Portfolio Management - The Importance Of Realized Profit (Part 2) - Revisit

      Portfolio Management - The Importance Of Realized Profit (Part 2)

      Tuesday, 16 November 2010

      SKorean central bank raises rate to 2.5 percent

      Read? DBS to sell preference shares to retail investors. Really ah??? (2)

      SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korea's central bank raised its key interest rate Tuesday for the second time in four months amid persistent concerns about inflation.


      The Bank of Korea announced that it lifted the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate to 2.5 percent from 2.25 percent at a monthly monetary policy meeting.

      The decision was widely expected. A total of 11 economists at 13 financial institutions surveyed by Yonhap Infomax, the financial news arm of Yonhap news agency, predicted the bank would increase the rate to 2.5 percent.

      The central bank surprised economists last month by keeping the borrowing cost unchanged as concern about potential exchange rate risks to the global economy offset worries about domestic inflation.

      Still, the central bank warned last month that "upward pressures" on prices were unlikely to abate. Indeed, the country's consumer price index for October, announced earlier this month, rose 4.1 percent from the same month last year.

      Beginning in late 2008, the Bank of Korea steadily cut its interest rate to a record low 2 percent to combat the effects of the global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn. It raised the borrowing cost to 2.25 percent in July amid solid growth prospects for the domestic economy and budding inflation worries.

      Tuesday's rate decision also comes as South Korea's economic expansion has weakened. Growth in the three months ended Sept. 30 slowed to a rate of 0.7 percent from 1.4 percent in the previous three months. It was the second straight quarter of slower growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

      Singapore's Sembcorp sells $195 mln rig to Transocean

      SINGAPORE, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The world's second largest rig-bulder, Sembcorp Marine , said on Tuesday it has signed a $195 million contract to sell a jack-up rig to drilling contractor Transocean .


      The company said in a statement that the contract was not expected to have any material impact on the consolidated net tangible assets per share and earnings per share of the company for the year ended December 2010. (Reporting by Harry Suhartono; Editing by Alex Richardson)

      DBS to sell preference shares to retail investors. Really ah??? (2)

      Read? DBS to sell preference shares to retail investors. Really ah???

      Yesterday, two colleagues asked  me can buy or not?

      This is what I told them?

      • It is dumb to compare the yield between a risk-free, short-term  instrument like fixed deposit and long-term capital-locking instrument like NCPS when you are very sure that you will be holding it for the next 10-20 years. Anything comparing with near zero returns will make you feel damn shiok! But why lock up your capital for 10 years when every 4-5 years a big bear will come?
      • The current low interest rate 0.X% has only ONE way to go that is UP i.e. 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% or even higher. Nobody know exactly when but the way UP is definitely certain when governments start increasing rate to fight inflation.
      • DBS (mother share) is currently trading at around 4% dividend yield so does DBS NCPS 4.7% still make interests-wise sense when you already have clear intention of holding it over the next 10 years.
      • When interest rate rises, probably stock price of DBS NCPS 4.7% may have to fall even below par to offset the rise in interest rate to attract new buyers. That is the way that risk-reward mechanism works in the market.
      Good or not, they decide themselves. LOL

      Warren Buffet actually buys and sells more often than some of his followers.

      Big Changes for Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio in Third Quarter

      Monday, 15 November 2010

      Hyflux wins US$100m contract to build plant in Libya

      By BERNICE BONG


      SINGAPORE - Singapore's biggest provider of water-treatment services, Hyflux, said on Monday, it has won a US$100 million contract to carry out engineering, procurement and construction works for a seawater desalination plant in Libya.

      The project at Tobruk in northeastern Libya is the first in the African country for Hyflux.

      The desalination plant, which will use reverse osmosis technology, will produce 40,000 m3 of desalinated water per day when fully operational.

      Hyflux stocks dropped 1.2 per cent to $3.25 on a volume of 117 million shares after announcement of the contract.

      Sunday, 14 November 2010

      Pareto Principle

      By Albert Yang



      Read? Parkinson's Law

      Pareto Principle ~ “20% of the effort generates 80% of the results.”


      Background Blurb: (From Wikipedia)

      The Pareto principle (also known as the 80-20 rule, the law of the vital few and the principle of factor scarcity) states that, for many events, 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

      Business management thinker Joseph M. Juran suggested the principle and named it after Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who observed that 80% of income in Italy went to 20% of the population. It is a common rule of thumb in business; e.g., "80% of your sales come from 20% of your clients."

      The Pareto principle is only tangentially related to Pareto efficiency, which was also introduced by the same economist, Vilfredo Pareto.

      Pareto developed both concepts in the context of the distribution of income and wealth among the population.

      Known to most of us as the 80-20 rule, it explains quite a bit about how our world is run. 20% of the clients make up 80% of the sales. 20% of the clients make up 80% of the headaches. 20% of the activities take up 80% of the time.

      The list is endless. There are even variations on the 80-20 principle, such as the 90-10, the 95-5, and the 1-99. Of course, if you take a Pareto of a Pareto (Pareto2) you get 80-20 of 80-20, yielding you 64-4 (80% of 80% = 64%; 20% of 20% = 4%).

      Like Parkinson's Law, Pareto Principle is another big law that engulfs your work life as well as your personal life. Given that your job is to optimize your life, spotting Parkinson's Law, and applying Pareto Principle to it, is really the basis of the optimization.

      Let me try to explain how it applies to most projects in the business world, and in combination with Parkinson's Law, you will begin to see how these two laws all but guarantee that a project will be delayed and over budget (even before you factor in Hofstadter’s Law.)

      Let us begin with a project we have been assigned. The project deadline is in two months. Regardless of what needs to be done, because of Parkinson's Law, we already know that we are going to cut it close, and it will fill all two months, regardless if we have ten tasks to accomplish in those two months, or one hundred tasks. Because traditional project management says, we go ahead and list out the tasks we have to do, and begin those which are on the critical path; or more than likely, the project will begin with those items that will take the longest.

      Given our timeline, we already know that according to Pareto Principle, the tasks that will take 80% of our time will only yield 20% of the results. But when we apply traditional project management; what tasks do we start off with first??

      That's right, those that will take 80% of the total project time to complete. So let's suppose that we have task A, and task B. Task A will take six weeks of our total eight weeks, and task B will take only two weeks. Because we feel that we'd like to have some buffer as a project manager (if you didn't notice it, the creation of a buffer has fallen us victim to Parkinson's Law, even with Hofstadter’s Law), we will start with task A first so that if we don't finish in the six weeks, we still have two weeks left as buffer.

      But because of Pareto Principle, we know that task B is: 1) Easier to do 2) Can be completed in two weeks 3) Will account for 80% of the entire project.

      But because traditional management says otherwise, we will start with task A, which is: 1) More difficult to do 2) More time consuming than we first estimated, regardless what the estimation is 3) Will take 80% of our time 4)

      Will account for probably less than 20% of the project. So by week 6, task A is not completed. “That's ok, because we have an added two weeks buffer!!” You will say to yourself; but Parkinson's Law of course, kicks in, and you will take all eight weeks of your entire project time to finish task A (and of course, task A WILL be finished by the eight weeks because of Parkinson's Law) but when you have finished with task A, you have only finished 20% of the project.

      Therefore, by Parkinson's Law, (and lack of Hofstadter’s Law) you will tell your boss that it wasn't your fault, and you need more people, even though you really only have 20% of the tasks left, you will now have more people working on smaller amounts of tasks than you did the previous eight weeks (Cope’s Law).

      The lack of understanding of these two rules, Parkinson's Law and Pareto Principle, is pretty much the reason that most projects are delayed and over budget.

      If you are a student, in your student life, if you had to clean your room before you did your homework, you will of course spend 80% of your time on cleaning your room to avoid the homework, and in fact, you will take longer than that because of Parkinson's Law. When you are done with cleaning your room, you will have spent 80% of your time, doing less than 20% of what you needed to do.

      If you are in sales, you will spend 80% of your time rearranging and alphabetizing your business cards, and only spend 20% of your time making cold calls, which is what yields you clients, not the rearrangement of business cards.

      When you understand this however, you will be able to spot it and thus be able to defeat it. I will show you later on, how by reversing the two laws, Parkinson's Law and Pareto Principle, you can do most tasks and do the more efficiently. You can spend as little as 20% of the effort, and 50% of the time, and yield a better
      product all at the same time!

      -------------------------------------------------

      Createwealth8888:

      How to spot Parkinson's Law and applying Pareto Principle to our investment strategies?

      We should be more productive in our investment and avoid expanding our time and effort for more and more stock/company analysis which may take away too much time from other aspects of life even though we personally may enjoy it; but not sure our other family members can really agree to it.

      Over time when we become more skillful and with the right strategies we should be able to spend 20% to get 80% .

      Read? My money works harder for me (3)

      Read? Is this worth my time and effort to trade? (3)

      Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? (4)

      Read? Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? - 3rd revisit

      Good debt and bad debt?

      If you take out a loan for consumption e.g. car loan, or even housing loan; you are really mortgaging your future for current gratification. Don't mistaken the idea that your residual home is an investment. The house you live in is actually a consumption item. You can't really make any returns on your house unless you sell it and then either downgrade or rent another home to stay. But, do remember you only live once, are you sure you want to really downgrade your current lifestyle for the sake of having returns on investment?

      In simple terms, any loans taken for purpose of consumption cannot be considered as good debts. Right?

      Why housing loan is so cheap?

      Housing loan is a secured loan and the bank has nothing to lose except you and so that is reason why it is so cheap.

      Expect the Unexpected

      Don't believe me? Ask those people who file for bankruptcy how they have ended in such a sorry state. Many would say they have taken calculated risks but didn't expect things can happen so badly and left with no alternatives except bankruptcy.


      Anchoring your residual home

      Pay off your housing loan for living in is like anchoring your residual home to the sea-bed. Once your boat (residual home) is strongly secured to where it is and it will no longer be affected by drifting currents.

      Parkinson's Generalized Law

      Read? Parkinson's Law

      Parkinson's Generalized Law ~ “You will always get the lowest item of which you deem acceptable.”

      Is this Law true to me?

      So far it is a yes for my profit taking targets.

      I have specified that my profit taking target for short-term trading is at least $500 or 3%. So far since Nov 08, I didn't get anything lower as it is deem not acceptable.


      During last Friday regular monthly lunch meeting with two friends (actually it is my friend's friend who became very serious in doing short-term trading and long-term investing and not my friend) to talk on investing and trading.

      She has expressed interested in applying for some DBS NCPS 4.7%; but I advised her to forget it if she aspires to be a successful active investor. She must know what exactly she really wants from the stock market and keep training her mind to focus on her investing goals while improving her method and money management. That is the way to go.

      Read? 3 Ms of Trading – Mind, Method and Money - Part 3

      I believe any successful ACTIVE investors or traders will doubt their abilities to make an average of 4.7% returns on their investment in their respective investing/trading time frame.

      So remember Parkinson's Generalized Law ~ “You will always get the lowest item of which you deem acceptable.”

      Parkinson's Law

      By Albert Yang


      Parkinson's Law ~ “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”

      Parkinson's Law of Finance ~ “Expense expands so as to fill available budget.”

      Parkinson's Generalized Law ~ “You will always get the lowest item of which you deem acceptable.”

      Background Blurb: (From Wikipedia)

      “It was first articulated by C. Northcote Parkinson in an article published in The Economist in 1955, later reprinted together with other essays in the book Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress (London, John Murray, 1958), based on extensive experience in the British Civil Service. The scientific observations which contributed to the law's development included noting that as Britain's overseas empire declined in importance, the number of employees at the Colonial Office increased.”

      While I have listed quite a few laws, just as according to Pareto Principle, Parkinson's Law will make up the bulk of this book, and it IS the 20% that will make up 80% of your daily battles. Understanding Parkinson's Law will probably be the single most important knowledge you have in your life. (No, I'm not kidding nor exaggerating). This law and its sole understanding will determine if you have a good marriage, if you have a great retirement, if your country is clean, if your life is happy, if you get a promotion. Singularly, it will so engross and encompass every aspect of your life you won't believe it.

      Parkinson's Law, and its subsequent corollaries; are almost magical in its profoundness when you understand them. If you have a project, and you are given a month to complete it, you will complete it in a month. If you have the same project and are given two months to complete it, then you will complete itin two months.

      Anybody who has ever been a college student understands this. While a paper is due in two weeks, most of us will do the paper the night before. If the paper were assigned and we were only given one day to finish it, we would all revolt against the professor, yet when you take a look at the reality of the fact, most of us actually do it in less than 24 hours all the time. So Parkinson's Law, as it applies to school and business, is fairly easy to understand and there are dozens of examples that could be sited. These however, are fairly clear and straight forward.

      It is however, the subtle underlining forms of Parkinson's Law, those that we don't notice, that really ruin our lives.

      Let me give you a few examples. Does your alarm clock have a “snooze” button? If so, and you use it, you are a victim of Parkinson's Law. If your alarm is set at 7:00am, and when it rings, you press the snooze button and “sneak” 10 more minutes of sleep in, you are now a victim of Parkinson's Law. You can almost call it the Parkinson's Law of sleep, “Sleep will expand to fill time available.” So even before you actually get out of bed, you are a victim to Parkinson's Law already, and it goes downhill from there.

      Because you woke up 10 minutes later, you try to sooth your nerves by telling yourself that you have plenty of time; which of course according to Parkinson's Law, is another lie in and of itself. You say you have plenty of time, and so you slow down your morning routine, and bam! Parkinson's Law applies again, and your morning routine expands to fill (and then overfill) your available time.

      Once you finally get to work, you sit down to answer ONE email, and then one email becomes ten emails, and soon, what you were suppose to do Monday morning is not done. So you say to yourself, “That's ok, I'll just put in a little overtime tonight, no problem.” But what you didn't understand was of course, that Parkinson's Law applies to overtime, and so by giving yourself overtime, Parkinson's Law kicks in once again, and the amount of work you do because you allowed yourself to do overtime is actually the same or LESS than if you didn't have overtime.

      This all seems ridiculous, but it's true. If you are the boss of a company, take heed. In a survey of employees who worked 6 hours a day, 8 hours a day, and 10 hours a day. The SAME PERSON, working 6 hours a day, is MORE efficient and got MORE work done than working 8 or 10 hours a day!

      How can this be?? It's a mixture of Parkinson's Law and Pareto Principle actually. Even if they had 6 hours of work only, if given 10 hours, they will automagically expand the work to fill 10 hours. So productivity goes down as does efficiency. This is further witnessed by the increased productivity of company CEO's who only go into the office three times a week; or even as little as one time a week compared to those who are at the office all the time.

      I will talk more about this when I introduce Pareto Principle, and its combination with Parkinson's Law.

      Understand one critical thing though, Parkinson's Law of time, does not shrink, it only grows. That means, when you have a project that is one week long, and later on, you find out you have two weeks instead of one week to finish it, then you will take two weeks. BUT, if you had a project that was two weeks long before, and you then are given only one week to finish it, your project WILL BECOME DELAYED.

      So Parkinson's Law only expands, it doesn't shrink. I teach you later on though, how to make it shrink.

      Read? Parkinson's Law of Finance

      Saturday, 13 November 2010

      Olam in US$1.3b Gabon fertiliser project

      SINGAPORE - Singapore-based commodity firm Olam International Ltd said on Saturday it will set up a US$1.3 billion ammonia-urea fertiliser complex in the central African nation of Gabon.

      The project is a joint venture with the Government of Gabon, in which Olam will own an 80 per cent stake.

      Olam said in a statement the complex should commence operations by the first half of 2014 and run at a full capacity of 2,200 metric tonnes of ammonia and 3,850 metric tonnes of urea per day by the fiscal year of 2015, producing a total of 1.3 million metric tonnes of urea per annum.

      'The investment will be financed on a debt/equity ratio of 65:35. The debt portion estimated at US$845 million is expected to be entirely funded through non-recourse debt financing at competitive terms,' the company said.

      'Olam's share of the equity investment is estimated to be US$364 million, to be phased across the three-year development and construction period.'

      Olam will either self-fund its portion of equity or partly sell down the investment through a partial sale to strategic or financial investors, it said.

      Separately, Olam also said it has entered into another joint venture with the Gabon government to set up a 300,000 hectares palm oil plantation which will require an investment of US$236 million over seven years.

      Olam, which has 70 per cent stake in the palm oil joint venture, said planting will start in 2012 and is targeted to be completed in 2016.

      The company's shares have risen by 22 per cent since the start of the year, outpacing a 12 per cent increase in the benchmark Singapore index STI . -- REUTERS

      Understanding Stock Market Risks - Financial Fraud Risk is real! (3)

      Read? Understanding Stock Market Risks - Financial Fraud Risk is real! (2)

      Another one! This type of risk can never be discovered through by any sort of TA or FA.

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


      Scam cheques leave dent on crust of BreadTalk


      Malaysian unit discovers issue of RM1.5 million in unauthorised cheques; police report filed

      By FELDA CHAY

      SOMEONE has been skimming the cream off BreadTalk Group. The food and beverage player said yesterday that its Malaysian unit had found that unauthorised cheques had been issued to the tune of RM1.5 million (S$623,000).

      BreadTalk spokesman Joyce Koh said that the unit, ML Breadworks, uncovered the misappropriation last week during a routine internal review. ML Breadworks is 90 per cent owned by BreadTalk International, a wholly owned subsidiary of BreadTalk Group.

      A police report has been lodged in Malaysia and investigations are underway.

      A finance manager from another of BreadTalk's subsidiaries in Malaysia has taken charge of the financial operations of ML Breadworks with immediate effect.

      'Right now, we do not have a clear view on who the culprit is, so we are doing this to ensure an independent eye is kept on the (company's) processes, and to ensure that operations continue to run smoothly,' said Ms Koh.

      BreadTalk, whose brands include Food Republic, Toast Box and Din Tai Fung, became famous for the pork floss buns sold at its bakeries. According to its website, it has more than 300 boutique bakeries and 40 food atriums and restaurants.

      The misappropriation of funds has dented the group's third-quarter results. A $622,000 provision was made - equivalent to about 4 per cent of pre-tax profit for 2009.

      Yesterday, after the market closed, BreadTalk reported a 4.8 per cent rise in Q3 net profit to $2.8 million. This translated to earnings per share of one cent.

      Pre-operating expenses incurred for its first Din Tai Fung restaurant in Thailand contributed to the lacklustre Q3 showing. For Q3 a year ago, BreadTalk earned $3.2 million.

      BreadTalk said: 'Raw materials cost will continue to challenge companies in the food and beverage retail space. The group will continue wherever possible to contract directly with our key materials suppliers to mitigate the impact of price escalation.'

      Q3 revenue rose 26.8 per cent to $81.3 million.

      The bakery segment of the business registered a 49 per cent decline in operating profit to $0.9 million, mainly due to the provision for loss as a result of the misappropriation of funds, and a lower contribution from Singapore bakery operations. BreadTalk attributed the latter to the removal of the government's Jobs Credit Scheme.

      BreadTalk shares closed 0.8 per cent or half a cent higher at 65 cents yesterday.

      Parkinson's Law of Finance

      By Albert Yang

      Parkinson's Law of Finance, “Expense expands as to fill available budget” is probably the singularly biggest reason that you will retire poor. Its defeat will also be the singular reason you will retire rich. A lot of people, who are making $2000 a month, will say “If I only made more money, things will be better.” What happens though, is when they make $4000 a month, or even $10,000 a month, they feel the same pressure, if not MORE pressure because as their salaries increased, so did their expenses. While not in so many words, the book

      “The Richest Man in Babylon” by George S. Clason, teaches a method to defeat Parkinson's Law of Finance. By saving a fixed pE J'@ ECwU PJ\P d in their lives. It is so important that it bears repeating one more time and in all caps:

      “PARKINSON'S LAW OF FINANCE, AND ITS DEFEAT WILL BE THE SOLE DETERMINANT OF WHETHER YOU ARE RICH LATER ON IN LIFE OR NOT.”

      Consider etching that into stone and hanging it on your wall. With the modern methods of automation we have at our disposal, we really have NO excuse why we can't defeat Parkinson's Law of Finance. Going to Harvard, or getting a good job, these play at best- in their lives. It is so important that it bears repeating one more time and in all caps:

      “PARKINSON'S LAW OF FINANCE, AND ITS DEFEAT WILL BE THE SOLE DETERMINANT OF WHETHER YOU ARE RICH LATER ON IN LIFE OR NOT.”

      Consider etching that into stone and hanging it on your wall. With the modern methods of automation we have at our disposal, we really have NO excuse why we can't defeat Parkinson's Law of Finance. Going to Harvard, or getting a good job, these play at best, 3rd fiddle to Parkinson's Law of Finance as far as your wealth and poverty is determined. I've summed it up in one paragraph, but please don't let the volume of words fool you. I cannot stress it enough, if you have no solid financial plan in which to defeat Parkinson's Law, then no matter how much money you make, it will eventually become zero.


      “The fool and his money are soon parted.” (Thomas Tusser) and how true it is! I believe Mr. Tusser was talking about the lack of understanding of Parkinson's Law. If you are still not convinced, look at movie stars of Hollywood and those who have gone bankrupt. They make, (have made) millions and still manage to blow it all away? Why?!? The answer, Parkinson's Law. If you get nothing else from this book, this point alone is well worth the price of the book.

      So we've discussed Parkinson's Law and how it pertains to time, and money, but what about a husband or a wife? What about what kind of car you drive, or eating good food vs. fast food? How can all this be blamed on Parkinson's Law??

      Simple, in its most generalized form, Parkinson's Law states that “You will always get, the lowest item of which you deem acceptable.” This means that if you think, “ugly” is ok, then your husband or wife will be ugly. If you think “I don't really care what we eat, McDonalds is ok” then you will eat McDonalds.

      If you say “I don't mind if a job pays only $5 an hour” then you will get a job that only pays $5 an hour. Whatever item you deem acceptable, the lowest item on that list is what you will get. If you go to some place that is dirty, the reason that place is dirty is because the people that live there, deem that level of dirtiness to be acceptable, and therefore, generalized Parkinson's Law kicks in and that place is dirty.

      If you “don't mind” that your future husband smokes, then your future husband will smoke. If you don't mind that your future wife is fat, then your future wife will be fat. If you don't mind that you eat microwave dinners for dinner every night, then you will eat microwave dinners every night. While this sounds almost ridiculous, it is not.

      When you hear interviews or read books about very successful people, you will notice that amongst them, the commonality that they all will not accept substandard to be passed as par standard. Subsequently, they never receive substandard anything. Think of it like this, there is a hurdle, and you will always just cross over that hurdle. If that hurdle is low, then what you get is low, if that hurdle is high, then what you get is high. Do you want your house to be clean all the time?

      Apply Parkinson's Law to it, and deem dirtiness unacceptable. You will be surprised how something as simple as raising the minimum accepted standard, will have a profound impact. I remember in high school, there was an English teacher I had who had a ridiculously high standard. Consequently, everybody stepped up their game, and met her standards.

      If it's ok to leave the dishes undone overnight, then they will be left undone overnight. If it's ok that your kids bring home bad grades, then they will bring home bad grades. Parkinson's Law, as you can now see, controls almost everything around you. But it gets worse. Parkinson's Law is against every fiber of human nature.

      For most of us, given a choice of difficult or easy, we will always default to the easy. That is human nature; and when you do so, you have lost the battle against Parkinson's Law. Like manna from Heaven, defeat of Parkinson's Law, cannot be stored like canned goods; its defeat cannot be accumulated like frequent flyer miles, and its defeat cannot be given to someone else like a well wrapped gift box. You and you alone can see your Parkinson's Law at work in your life, and only active daily effort can keep it at bay. It's harsh news, but it is reality, you can NEVER get rid of Parkinson's Law, but on a daily basis, with careful planning and help from other laws, you can at least keep it at bay. When you do though, your life will open up to a wonderful world filled with excitement and possibilities.

      It is CRITICAL, that you understand this law, and its profound effects on your life. It is equally critical that you can SPOT this law before it happens, and prevent it from happening. Later on in the book, as I cover more laws, I will help you use a combination of things to defeat this law and in fact, use it to your advantage.

      Continue to read next? Yang's Law in Investing

      Yang's Law in Investing

      By Albert Yang

      Yang's Law ~ “Given two items A and B, of which you are an expert in A, and little about B, you will always invest more in B than A.”

      Confidence Transposition ~ “People who are experts in one area, assume therefore they are experts in another.”

      Background Blurb:

      This law is one that I came up with after careful assessment of my own personal life and the problems I faced in my life. It stems from the observation that professionals, when they lose large amounts of money, almost never do so in their own field of expertise. They instead, invest more in areas they know very little about or are not in their field or scope of expertise.


      Most authors write from the vantage point of experience that they have personally gleaned; and I am no exception. This has been a personal battle for me, and one that I am happy to share in hopes that by doing so, others can avoid the same mistakes I have made. The concept is simple to explain, but wrapped wholly in strange psychology. From Yang's Law, stems a corollary that is almost as profound, one that I aptly name Confidence Transposition. It is difficult to explain one without explaining the other, so I have grouped them together in hopes that it will increase your understand of them.

      We shall start with the corollary first, and work our way to the law. Let's take someone we all know, the basketball player Michael Jordon. A legend in his own time, we may never see another basketball player like him ever again. Yet, when Michael Jordon retired, he tried out for the baseball team. Why would someone like Michael Jordon do something like that? The reason is, most believe (and wrongly) that if they are experts or professionals in one area, then they therefore can be experts in another area. This psychological conclusion, I have coined as Confidence Transposition: “People who are experts in one area, assume therefore they are experts in another.” This is why a large percentage of medical doctors play the stock market (and lose). They believe and say often, “I can do open heart surgery, how difficult can picking a few stocks be??” Consequently, most doctors invest in the stock market, and lose. Now we have a chicken and egg problem, leading us from the corollary to the law; while the doctor is an expert at medical practices, he knows nothing about stocks and finance; yet when it comes time to invest a large chunk of his money, HE WILL INVEST MORE IN THE STOCK MARKET THAN IN HIS OWN PRACTICE. This is then crux of Yang's Law: “Given two items A and B, of which you are an expert in A, and know little about B, you will always invest more in B than A.”

      I am not a psychologist nor do I play one on TV, but this sort of behavior is unexplainable and yet happens all the time. This is the reason you hear doctors and lawyers, who are cautious when it comes to investments in their own professions; become a loose gunslinger with their money when it is a subject that they know little about. Be it a transposition of confidence on their part, of just a strange psychological phenomenon; one thing is for sure, Yang's Law applies to almost everything we do, and only through eternal vigilance can you really defeat it. Always work with your strengths and defer your weaknesses; it sounds like a simple concept that is well grounded, yet it is a concept that most of us never follow. Yang's Law, will be the reason people say things like “I love cooking; I don't know why I became an accountant instead of a chef.”

      These sayings are simple admittance to being defeated by Yang's Law. Yang's Law, when combined with Confidence Transposition, spells almost guaranteed disaster; you will overinvest in something you really don't know that well; and you will justify it by saying that because you are an expert in A, you are confident that the choices you make about B are good. What is worse; to sell yourself on the false confidence, you will over invest in B, just to prove that you are an expert in it; (which you are not).

      I can only share with the reader, that Yang's Law has ruined countless opportunities for me, understand it, and understand that NO, you aren't an expert outside of your field, and because of that, be cautious, and be overly cautious, never transpose your confidence and never invest in what you are not an expert in.

      I want to let the reader know a few key differences about Parkinson’s Law, vs Yang’s Law. Parkinson’s Law, I liken to cancer or cirrhosis of the liver, it kills you slowly, day by day. Where as Yang’s Law, is like getting hit by a bus. You can be a doctor or a lawyer, be great at your profession, only to lose your entire life’s savings in ONE bad investment due to Yang’s Law. But be it death by bus, or death by cancer, both Parkinson’s Law and Yang’s Law will bring certain death to you (or make you wish you were dead) if you do not pay careful attention to them
      Yang's Law ~ “Given two items A and B, of which you are an expert in A, and


      little about B, you will always invest more in B than A.”

      Confidence Transposition ~ “People who are experts in one area, assume

      therefore they are experts in another.”

      Background Blurb:

      This law is one that I came up with after careful assessment of my own

      personal life and the problems I faced in my life. It stems from the

      observation that professionals, when they lose large amounts of money,

      almost never do so in their own field of expertise. They instead,

      invest more in areas they know very little about or are not in their field

      or scope of expertise.

      Most authors write from the vantage point of experience that they have

      personally gleaned; and I am no exception. This has been a personal battle for

      me, and one that I am happy to share in hopes that by doing so, others can avoid

      the same mistakes I have made. The concept is simple to explain, but wrapped

      wholly in strange psychology. From Yang's Law, stems a corollary that is almost

      as profound, one that I aptly name Confidence Transposition. It is difficult to

      explain one without explaining the other, so I have grouped them together in

      hopes that it will increase your understand of them.

      We shall start with the corollary first, and work our way to the law. Let's

      take someone we all know, the basketball player Michael Jordon. A legend in his

      own time, we may never see another basketball player like him ever again. Yet,

      when Michael Jordon retired, he tried out for the baseball team. Why would

      someone like Michael Jordon do something like that? The reason is, most believe

      (and wrongly) that if they are experts or professionals in one area, then they

      therefore can be experts in another area. This psychological conclusion, I have

      coined as Confidence Transposition: “People who are experts in one area, assume

      therefore they are experts in another.” This is why a large percentage of medical

      doctors play the stock market (and lose). They believe and say often, “I can do

      open heart surgery, how difficult can picking a few stocks be??” Consequently,

      most doctors invest in the stock market, and lose. Now we have a chicken and

      egg problem, leading us from the corollary to the law; while the doctor is an

      expert at medical practices, he knows nothing about stocks and finance; yet when

      it comes time to invest a large chunk of his money, HE WILL INVEST MORE IN

      THE STOCK MARKET THAN IN HIS OWN PRACTICE. This is then crux of

      Yang's Law: “Given two items A and B, of which you are an expert in A, and know

      little about B, you will always invest more in B than A.”

      I am not a psychologist nor do I play one on TV, but this sort of behavior is

      unexplainable and yet happens all the time. This is the reason you hear doctors

      Trying to profit from Bulls or Bears?

      Just for Laugh ....

      Do you try to profit from the bulls or the bears?

      Profit from Bulls?

      You buy from the bulls and then trying to sell to the next bigger bulls for profits.

      Guess what can happen?

      One day, a bigger bear suddenly appears and you did not run faster than the bigger bear. The bigger bear may take back parts or all your profits from the bulls or you may lose even more.

      Profit from Bears?

      You buy from the bears and then trying to sell to the future bulls for profits.

      Guess what can happen?

      When a bigger bull suddenly appears but you did not run faster than the smaller bull. The bigger bull may give you loads of money.




      Who do you buy from?

      "Matured" Investors

      Just for Laugh ...

      "Matured" does not refer to an investor's age.

      You become a "matured" investor when you realize that you have stopped going to ATM to key in for IPOs to tikam tikam or show no interests in DBS NCPS 4.7%. You now have full confidence in your investing skills that you can generally get better returns elsewhere or one-two hundred bucks in your pocket by the way of lucky draw is just too little for comfort.

      Friday, 12 November 2010

      DBS to sell preference shares to retail investors. Really ah???

      Read? DBS to sell preference shares to retail investors

      It should be read as "DBS is replacing DBS 6% NCPS with DBS 4.7% NCPS".

      High chance that most current holders of DBS 6% NCPS will take up DBS 4.7%. In another word, DBS is refinancing its long-term debt at a lower rate so it is positive for the mother share.

      At today closing at $14.04, current DBS dividend yield is about 4%. So does it still make sense to take up DBS 4.7% NCPS?

      My War Room (3)

      Read? My War Room (2)

      "Sell to Bulls and buy from Bears" - Createwealth8888


      My War Chest: Active and reserve commandoes are on standby now to fight the bears


      Thursday, 11 November 2010

      Olam Q1 net profit jumps 56%

      SINGAPORE - Singapore-based commodity firm Olam International Ltd said on Thursday its net profit for the July-September period soared 56 per cent from a year earlier to S$29.7 million (US$23.08 million).

      Olam, a US$5.47 billion company which generated S$10.5 billion in revenue in the 2009/10 financial year, said the higher profit was driven by increases in sales volume and net contribution from all business segments.

      Revenue in the July-September quarter was S$2.5 billion.

      The stock closed up 0.3 per cent on Thursday at S$3.33 after it reached a 52-week high on Tuesday of S$3.41. It is up 27.7 per cent since the start of the year versus an about 14 per cent increase in the Singapore index.

      In September, Olam said it was in preliminary confidential discussion with Louis Dreyfus, one of the world's top commodity traders, in relation to a possible business collaboration which may take the form of a merger.

      The talks between Louis Dreyfus and Olam, which operates in 20 product categories across 60 countries, underscore sector consolidation as global players expand across commodities to take advantage of booming demand driven by a rising world population and fast-growing emerging economies. -- REUTERS

      Wednesday, 10 November 2010

      Brasfels in line for Petrobras floater double

      The Brasfels shipyard is close to signing contracts for the topside integration on two floating production, storage and offloading vessels to be used on Petrobras-operated pilot pre-salt projects in Brazil's Santos basin.


      Gareth Chetwynd 10 November 2010 03:08 GMT

      One consortium made up of Modec International and Brazil's Schahin Engenharia, and another consisting of SBM Offshore and Queiroz Galvao Oleo e Gas, have been mulling their options for complying with local content requirements in Brazil.

      Both have settled for the Keppel Fels-run facility for the integration work on their chartered units, according to the electronic news bulletin Energia Hoje.

      The units, dubbed FPSO Cidade de Sao Paulo and FPSO Cidade de Paraty, are expected to arrive in Brazil in the first quarter of next year after completing hull conversions at China's Cosco yard and Keppel Fels in Singapore respectively.

      The Brasfels facility is one of the success stories of the Brazilian offshore sector and is now working on two major production platform construction projects for Petrobras. These are the semisubmersible unit P-56 and, next in line, the tension leg wellhead platform P-61.

      Brasfels recently completed the integration project on the FPSO P-57, chartered to Petrobras by SBM and soon to start production on the Jubarte field.

      Modec's FPSO Cidade de Sao Paulo was supposed to be installed on the Guara field on Block BM-S-9 by the final quarter of 2012, paying a dayrate of $675,000.

      Minor delays on the conversion project and also in securing the integration slot are understood to have generated a slight delay in this schedule.

      The FPSO Cidade de Paraty will be installed on the Tupi Nordeste field on Block BM-S-11.

      Both units will be able to process up to 120,000 barrels per day of crude and 5 million cubic metres per day of gas.

      Right issue back again (6)

      Read? Right issue back again (5)

      Test of retail investor's mind and heart

      Rights issue can be a test of retail investor's mind and heart. Are they in harmony?  Is the mind or heart controlling the retail investor?

      The mind may say "No". It is like throwing good money after bad money; but the heart is unwilling to cut and go and then seek for the next opportunity.

      So it is either cut and go as we don't need to win back in the same manner that we have lost it or sell the rights to lower the holding capital cost at diluted interests.

      Tuesday, 9 November 2010

      High-yield, low-payout stocks stand out

      Read Createwealth8888's view?  Not All Dividend Stocks Are Created Equal!

      High-yield, low-payout stocks stand out
      Strategy tends to outperform others in most rising markets


      By CONRAD TAN

      INVESTING in stocks that offer high dividend yields but pay out only a small proportion of their earnings tends to outperform other strategies in the long term, according to Credit Suisse analysts.

      Outperform: M1 is among Singapore stocks with dividend yields of up to 6.3% a year at current prices but pay out as little as one-third of their profits as dividends

      'High-yield, low-payout essentially means you are buying yield stocks that are trading at a low price-earnings ratio', or value stocks, its analysts said in a report on Asia-Pacific equities last week.

      Such an investment strategy tends to outperform others in rising markets except in the bubble phase, they said. Also, 'a low payout implies that these companies are retaining cash for growth which also helps long-term performance'.

      They analysed stocks in Asia-Pacific markets for the best-performing strategies during the period January 2009 to June 2010.

      In Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan, buying high-yield, low-payout stocks would have earned investors the highest returns over that period compared with other strategies, they found.

      The other strategies tested included buying stocks that paid no dividends; stocks that had high dividend yields; stocks with both high dividend yields and high payout ratios; stocks with low dividend yields and low payout ratios; and stocks that had low dividend yields but high payout ratios.

      The performances of the various strategies were also compared with that of buying an overall portfolio of stocks for each market.

      'For most markets, the high-yield low-payout strategy was the best performing strategy followed by the non-dividend paying stocks for a few markets,' the analysts said.

      Stocks that pay no dividends are also called growth stocks. Instead of seeking dividends, buyers bet that the share price will increase substantially so they get large capital gain when they sell the stocks.

      In Singapore, stocks that paid no dividends showed the biggest returns over the period examined. But investing in high-yield, low-payout stocks was still the best-performing strategy over a longer period of 15 years examined in an earlier study, the Credit Suisse analysts said.

      Among those they consider to be high-yield, low-payout Singapore stocks are telco M1, rig builders Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine, transport group ComfortDelGro Corp, real estate developer Allgreen Properties and conglomerate Sembcorp Industries. (Createwealth8888: Yeh, I have Kep Corp and Semb Corp in my portfolio)

      These stocks have dividend yields of up to 6.3 per cent a year at current prices but pay out as little as one-third of their profits as dividends. All are rated 'outperform' by Credit Suisse.

      Other stocks, such as Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust and property firms MCL Land and United Engineers, have dividend yields of over 3 per cent a year but pay out less than a quarter of their earnings as dividends.

      Biosensors International Group posts higher net profit of $11m for 3Q


      Noble's Q3 net profit climbs 19%

      By ANGELA TAN


      Commodities group Noble Group Limited reported on Tuesday that its net profit for the third quarter of 2010 rose 19 per cent from a year ago to US$157.19 million.

      Excluding other gains in the current quarter, the adjusted quarterly net profit was US$131.1 million, comparable to the corresponding period last year.

      Revenue was up 79 per cent from a year ago to US$14.94 billion. The higher revenue levels reflected the impact of a more stable economic environment which returned commodity price levels to more normalized levels.

      Noble's energy segment, particularly Oil & Gas division, now represents 64 per cent of group revenue.

      Right issue back again (5)

      Read? Right issue back again (4)

      As retail investors it is much harder to think how our interests in the company can be diluted by not fully subscribing to rights issue.

      Here is the story of BB and easier to see why?

      BB has a 9% stake in Company A and was given a Board seat due to the 9% holding in the company.

      One day, Company A does a 1 for 1 rights issue.

      BB's Investment Manager thinking that he was smart. He sold the rights and made millions of dollars out of it.

      He went to his boss to tell him the "Good" news.

      Investment Manager: "Boss, we have made millions of dollars from selling those rights. So will I be expecting a special year-end bonus?"

      Boss: "You idiot! We have just lost our Board seat  as we now only have 4.5% stake."

      Get it?

      Anyone need more examples? let me know .. I can then think more about it.

      Stock Market is never short of Greater Fools sometime!

      Just for Laugh ...

      What do you think of those buyers who bought the stock on the day of XD at higher price? Why don't they buy before XD and collect dividends?

      Right issue back again (4)

      Read? Right issue back again (3)

      Before rights issue, e.g. we have X% ownership of the company and if we subscribed to all our entitled rights issues we will still maintain X% ownership of the company but at higher capital holding cost.

      But, if we don't fully subscribed to rights issue, then after rights issues our interests in the company i.e. X% ownership is diluted over the entire holding period.

      Making some money out of selling rights doesn't negate the impact of diluted interests in the company if we still stay vested in the company over long-term.  That is the reason why I always subscribed fully to any rights issues and have not sell away any rights to lower holding capital cost or thinking that I could made some profits by selling the rights.

      So don't get confuse over stock price appreciation due to stock market actions and interests in the company i.e. X% ownership. Interests in the company will entitle us to any future corporate action e.g. the subsequent rights issue,  bonus issues, stock split or consolidation,  etc. These are two different thing - stock price appreciation due to market action and interests in the company. Get it?

      Right issue back again (3)

      Read? Right issue back again (2)

      Selling Rights?

      Once you don't have the money to subscribe to the rights issue, you have become a sucker; but by selling away the rights, you just become a sucker slowly as your interests are diluted anyway.

      Monday, 8 November 2010

      Investors hum to frenzied beat of the IPO gold rush

      Brokerages report rise in opening of new accounts as new listings bring buzz back to market


      By JOYCE HOOI

      (SINGAPORE) The ground floor of brokerages across the CBD have been livelier than usual, as walk-in clients clamour to part with their money, keen for a piece of the initial public offering (IPO) gold rush. But already, it is evident that some prospectors will do better than others.

      With blockbuster offerings from Mapletree Industrial Trust and Global Logistics Properties (GLP) making splashy starts this month, remisiers have seen a surge in new account openings by novice investors.

      'I've had 10 new accounts opened in a two- week period. For the majority of them, it was because of the IPOs,' said Shane Ng, a remisier with Kim Eng Securities.

      CIMB Securities has also seen a jump in the opening of new trading accounts. 'For the months of September and October, clearly things have picked up a fair bit,' said Malcolm Koo, head of sales at CIMB Securities.

      'As a whole, on a year-on-year basis, we are seeing growth in terms of new accounts being opened. It has been a good double-digit growth for us every month,' he added.

      While most of them tend be new believers in the gospel of stockmarket recovery, others are born-again investors who have gained renewed faith in stocks.

      'We have seen reborn investors who have not been trading for decades coming back because of the IPOs, and we've got enquiries that have been a lot more frequent since September,' said Albert Fong, a remisier at OCBC Securities.

      'They are investing also because the interest rate offered by banks is almost zero,' he added.

      Over at Phillip Securities, the revival has been resounding. 'I've seen 50 accounts being reactivated over the last one or two weeks,' said Henry Tjoa, a remisier there.

      On the whole, the numbers have appeared compelling as well. Since June, total monthly turnover on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) has risen rapidly, from a volume of 22.6 billion shares in June to 45.4 billion shares in September.

      While the numbers for October are not out yet, they are bound to be higher than September's. The greater mystery, however, is whether the players that stampeded into the market in October will still be there by year-end.

      Already, brand-new accounts have seen little action beyond the flurry of IPO-flipping, which usually happens within three days of a successful application. 'Most of them are fresh graduates with not a lot of money to invest anyway,' said Kim Eng's Mr Ng.

      In a market that had been starved of IPO action for the first part of the year, some brokers and investors have begun opting for a scattershot approach, now that offerings are abundant. 'I just tell them to apply - doesn't matter what stock. I mean, GLP? Who really understands logistics? I don't even read the financial statements,' one remisier said.

      Another remisier with two decades of experience has his reservations about the IPO euphoria. 'They like the government-brand stocks like GLP. Whether or not it's a good choice remains to be seen,' he said.

      In what could cast doubt on the underlying fundamentals of the market, some of the smaller issues have already been priced below their offer price, as investors do a hit-and-run with IPO applications.

      XinRen, which was 4.3 times oversubscribed earlier this month and had a euphoric adjective placed right before 'debut' to describe its first day of trading, saw its share price drop to 53 cents the day after - below its offer price of 55 cents.

      Oxley Holdings, which listed last week, did not even have a debut worth writing home about because it felt the fickleness of the punters before its first trading day closed, leaving it 1.5 cents below its 38-cent share price.

      And poor Anchun International Holdings, which listed last Monday with an offer price of 28 cents, ended the week at 23.5 cents.

      Some remisiers, however, believe that the good times for the market are here to at least visit for a while. 'The market will still perform for the next 3-6 months. It's not at a frenzied point yet,' said Phillip Securities' Mr Tjoa.

      Others think that, good times or not, it is the turbulence that will separate investors from punters.

      'On a long-term basis, it will be on an uptrend but in between, there'll be some pullback here and there,' said OCBC's Mr Fong. 'The fear used to be prevalent among the small-time investors but the confidence is coming back. I just hope they don't get carried away.'
      -------------------------------------------

      Createwealth8888 welcome the newbies and re-born retail investors back to the stock market; but they did to remember this:

       "The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder.

      Noble appointed exclusive agent for PT Beraua Coal

      By ANGELA TAN


      Noble Group Limited said on Monday that it has recently been appointed as the exclusive marketing agent for PT. Berau Coal production exported to international destinations excluding Japan and Malaysia.

      PT. Berau Coal mines coal in East Kalimantan, and is Indonesia's fifth largest producer with targeted total production in 2014 of 30 million metric tonnes.

      The Noble marketing agreement extends for the life of the PT. Berau Coal assets, with Indonesian domestic sales by PT. Berau Coal (accounting for about 30% of total production) continuing to be marketed by PT. Berau Coal directly, and with export sales to Japan continuing to be handled by Sojitz Corporation (a 10% shareholder in PT. Berau Coal).

      Noble will co-ordinate the marketing of PT. Berau Coal product from its Singapore office and will immediately utilise its extensive global network of offices to market PT. Berau Coal production directly to the end consumer.

      DBS Vickers said on Monday that 'this announcement is significant, as it could potentially almost double (Noble's) coal trading volume from Indonesia', currently expects Noble to procure around 15 million tons of coal from Indonesia, excluding Berau.

      Finding Back The Stolen Wealth By The 2008 Greater Bear (2)

      Read? 9M FY 10 Quarterly Performance Report

      Major STI Data Points since 1990

      Singapore shares end at 35-month high closing at 3,300.40

      Finding Back The Stolen Wealth By The 2008 Greater Bear


      The market bulls keep throwing out surprises and showing their strength.

      While STI is still -14.8% away from its Oct 07 peak; but my portfolio is just -4.8% away from its Oct 07 peak value. What should I do next to minimize the next bear from taking back too much?



      SEMBCORP DELIVERS STRONG PROFIT GROWTH

      - 3Q2010 Group net profit grows 65% to S$244.1 million


      - 9M2010 Group net profit up 33% S$564.2 million

      Highlights from Sembcorp’s 9M2010 Financial Results


      • Turnover of S$6.7 billion, down 6%

      • Net profit before EI of S$532.1 million, up 26%

      • Net profit after EI of S$564.2 million, up 33%

      • ROE (annualised) at 21.1%

      • EVA at S$584.1 million

      • Strong balance sheet and cash flow

      - Net cash position

      - Operating cash flow (before changes in working capital) of S$1,015.9 million

      Biosensors - Sold $1.21 ROC 22.1%

      The sin made in 2008 has been forgiven today. 1022 days or 2.8 years is really a long wait. Many thanks to the bulls in Biosensors.

      Round 2: ROC 22.1%, 1022 days, B $0.98 S $1.21


      Round 1: ROC 1.1%, 1 day, B $0.830 S $0.845

      Noble - Sold $2.08 ROC 20.8%

      The last Nobleman who was sent to fight in the Commodity Jungle in 2010 has finally returned to Base Camp after spending 185 days.

      Hope to gather more feathers for a thicker mattress soon ...


      Round 13: ROC 20.8%, 185 days, B $1.72 S $2.08 (Price has been adjusted after XB)


      Round 12: ROC 5.4%, 190 days, B $1.87 S $1.98 (Price has been adjusted after XB)
      Round 11: ROC 10.1%, 45 days, B $3.04 S $3.37
      Round 10: ROC 6.5%, 20 days, B $3.07 S $3.29 (Bought back higher)
      Round 9: ROC 5.7%, 74 days, B $1.71 S $1.82 (Bought back higher)
      Round 8: ROC 34.3%, 100 days, B $0.96 S $1.30
      Round 7: ROC 5.7%, 10 days, B $1.02 S $1.09
      Round 6: ROC 3.8%, 1 day, B $1.01 S $1.06
      Round 5: ROC 12%, 27 days, B $0.965 S $1.08, (2nd Half)
      Round 4: ROC 14%, 8 days, B $0.965 S $1.11, (1st Half) - Bought back higher
      Round 3: ROC 7.1%, 8 days, B $0.830 S $0.895
      Round 2: ROC 31.6%, 20 days, B $0.800 S $1.05
      Round 1: ROC 16.3%, 28 days, B $0.910 S $1.08

      Just a few multi-baggers may be enough for your kid's university fund


      Just to share my personal experience with readers that it is still possible to build up your kid's university fund from realized stock profits in stock market cycle of bulls and bears.

      Trading 93 rounds of Kep Corp plus its accumulated stock dividends since 2001 has been enough to fund my two kids' university education and I am quite sure I am not the only person who made it. I know he did it too. Read? One guy called Alvis and his multi-bagger blue chip Genting!. So it is definitely possible. Let me know if you are one of us too?

      Friday, 5 November 2010

      Thursday, 4 November 2010

      DBS to sell preference shares to retail investors

      By SIOW LI SEN


      DBS will sell preference shares to retail investors soon, said Chng Sok Hui, DBS Bank chief financial officer.

      'We plan to launch a retail tranche before year-end,' said Ms Chng on Thursday to reporters after the bank posted third quarter net profit of $722 million, up 28 per cent.

      Last month the bank said it is considering selling preference shares to retail investors following the successful sale of $1.7 billion of preference shares to private banking clients.

      The preference shares with a fixed dividend rate of 4.7 per cent was snapped up by private banking clients.

      Ms Chng declined to specify the size of the retail tranche or the dividend rate.

      The October preference shares were sold at a minimum of $250,000.

      Retail tranches also typically command a lower dividend than those for private bank clients, but this is likely to be much welcomed by retail investors who receive almost zero interest for their savings accounts. DBS and POSB savings account pay 0.10 per cent for amounts up to $100,000.

      Hyflux's Q3 net profit up 5%, plans 1-for-2 bonus issue

      By ANGELA TAN


      Hyflux Limited reported on Thursday that its net profit for the third quarter ended September 30, 2010 inched up 5 per cent from a year ago to S$19 million.

      Revenue grew 9 per cent from a year ago to S$137.45 million.

      China accounted for 29 per cent of total revenue, while Middle East and North Africa contributed about 62 per cent.

      Its cash position increased to S$307.6 million on September 30, 2010 from S$166.7 million on December 31, 2009.

      Hyflux is proposing to issue one-for-two bonus share to reward shareholders for their continued support.

      Under the proposed bonus issue, each existing shareholder will receive one bonus share for every two existing ordinary shares he owns. A total of 285.38 million bonus shares are expected to be issued.

      After XD, stock price will drop?

      Just for Laugh ....

      Obviously, whether the stock price will drop or not after XD will depend on the size of the dividends given.

      If the dividend is just 1-2 cts, how much can it drop?

      Fed to Spend $600 Billion More To Help Boost US Economy

      By: Reuters with CNBC.com


      The Federal Reserve launched a controversial new policy on Wednesday, committing to buy $600 billion more in government bonds by the middle of next year in an attempt to breathe new life into a struggling U.S. economy.

      The decision, which takes the Fed into largely uncharted waters, is aimed at further lowering borrowing costs for consumers and businesses still suffering in the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression.

      The U.S. central bank said it would buy about $75 billion in longer-term Treasury bonds per month. It said it would regularly review the pace and size of the program and adjust it as needed depending on the path of the recovery.

      In its post-meeting statement, the Fed described the economy as "slow", and said employers remained reluctant to add to payrolls. It said measures of inflation were "somewhat low."

      "Although the committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of research utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow," the Fed said.

      Stocks showed relatively little reaction to the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bounced around between positive and negative, a day after closing at its highest level since April 26. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq also were mostly flat.


      Longer-dated U.S. Treasurys shed gains, with 30-year bonds falling more than a point.

      The US dollar fell against the euro and also pared gains against the yen.

      The central bank repeated its vow to keep the federal funds rate on overnight loans ultra-low for an extended period. Some analysts had speculated the Fed might broaden this commitment.

      Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig continued his streak of dissents, saying the risk of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits.

      In a separate statement, the New York Fed said it would temporarily relax a rule limiting ownership of any particular security to 35 percent.

      It said holdings would be allowed to rise above that threshold "only in modest increments." Including the Fed's ongoing plan to reinvest maturing assets, the New York Fed expects to conduct $850 billion to $900 billion in Treasury purchases through the end of the second quarter of 2011.

      With the U.S. economy expanding at only a 2 percent annual pace in the third quarter of this year and the jobless rate seemingly stuck around 9.6 percent, the Fed had come under pressure to do more to stimulate business activity.

      The central bank had already cut overnight interest rates to near zero in December 2008 and bought about $1.7 trillion in U.S. government debt and mortgage-linked bonds.

      Those purchases, however, occurred when financial markets were stricken by crisis, and economists and Fed officials alike are divided over how effective the new program will be. Further bond purchases, however, are viewed with a skeptical eye by many economists and some Fed officials.

      Indeed, some worry further bond buying could do more harm than good by providing tinder for inflation that will ignite when the recovery finally gains traction.

      Markets had already seen sharp moves in anticipation of a resumption of bond purchases by the Fed. U.S. stocks and government bonds have rallied, while the dollar has taken a drubbing in advance of the decision.

      Stocks have also been supported by expectations—now validated—that Republicans, viewed as more pro-business by investors, would seize control of the House and pick up Senate seats in elections on Tuesday that were seen as a referendum on the economy.

      Since Republicans campaigned on a platform for smaller government, Congress may be less likely to offer fresh stimulus spending if the economy sputters, leaving the Fed as the primary source of support.

      With the prospect of a long period of ultra-low returns in the United States, investors have flocked to emerging markets, pushing those currencies higher. Emerging economies, worried about a loss of export competitiveness, have cried foul.

      "We are all under attack by the relaxed monetary policy of the United States," Colombian Finance Minister Juan Carlos Echeverry told investors on Tuesday.

      The Bank of Japan, which meets on Thursday and Friday, is also poised to launch a new round of bond buying. The European Central Bank and Bank of England also meet this week, but are not expected to shift policy.

      DBS THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS RISE 28% FROM YEAR AGO TO A RECORD SGD 722 MILLION

      Performance underpinned by customer-driven flows as execution of strategy progresses

      SINGAPORE, 4 November 2010 – DBS Group Holdings’ third-quarter 2010 earnings rose 28% from a year ago to a record SGD 722 million. The performance was underpinned by loan growth and customer-driven non-interest income as execution ofthe new strategy continued to progress.

      Net interest income rose 1% from the previous quarter to SGD 1.08 billion as the benefit of loan growth was offset by continued softness in interest rates. Loans increased 1% during the quarter from broad-based corporate borrowing across the region and housing loans in Singapore. Excluding currency translation effects, loans rose 4% or SGD 5.7 billion from the previous quarter. Net interest margins declined four basis points to 1.80%. Yields for new housing loans were lower than those that had run off while deposit costs in Hong Kong were higher.

      Non-interest income fell 2% from the previous quarter to SGD 730 million. Fee income declined 5% to SGD 340 million as a fall in loan-related fees was partially offset by an increase in investment banking revenues. Most other fee activities were maintained at the previous quarter’s level. Customer revenues from treasury products rose 10%.

      However, lower trading gains and a more prudent valuation reserve methodology more than offset the improvement in customer flows, resulting in overall trading income declining to SGD 223 million. Net gains from the sale of investment securities rose 26% to SGD 123 million as market conditions were conducive for taking profit on investments.

      Expenses rose 1% to SGD 726 million on higher technology costs to support business expansion. The cost-income ratio stayed at 40%.

      Non-performing assets declined 6% to SGD 3.51 billion as recoveries and write-offs exceeded new non-performing loans. DBS remained prudent in its classification and 38% of non-performing assets were still current in interest and principal. The nonperforming loan rate improved to 2.1% from 2.3% in the previous quarter. An additional SGD 195 million was set aside as specific and general allowances.

      Cumulative allowances amounted to 97% of non-performing assets and to 124% if collateral was considered.

      For the first nine months, net profit (before one-time items) rose 26% from a year ago to SGD 1.97 billion. The results were driven by higher customer flows in non-interest income and by lower allowances as asset quality improved. Since December 2009, loans expanded by 13%, and by 17% or SGD 22.1 billion if currency translation effects were excluded. DBS’ differentiated offerings enabled it to improve its market share of Singapore-dollar loans by 1% point to 21% during the nine months.

      Return on equity for the third quarter was 11.1%, similar to the previous quarter. For the
      nine months, it improved to 10.2% from 8.7% a year ago. DBS remained well capitalised, with the total capital adequacy ratio at 16.3% and the tier-1 ratio at 13.1%.

      Wednesday, 3 November 2010

      Be Far Better At Selling Than At Buying? (Re-visit)

      Samuel Johnson - "Between falsehood and useless truth there is little difference. As gold (paper profits) which he cannot spend will make no man rich, so knowledge which he cannot apply will make no man wise."


      ***paper profits - add in by Createwealth8888


      Read? Be Far Better At Selling Than At Buying?

      Tuesday, 2 November 2010

      CapitaLand sells 49% stake in Indian JV for S$30 mln

      By KALPANA RASHIWALA


      CapitaLand said on Tuesday that it will sell its entire 49 per cent stake in Runwal CapitaLand India for about Rs 1.02 billion (S$30 million) in cash to India's Runwal group, which owns the remaining 51 per cent stake in the joint venture company.

      Runwal CapitaLand, a company incorporated in India, is developing The Orchard Residency, a 590-unit freehold residential project located at Ghatkopar in Mumbai.

      'CapitaLand and Runwal have worked closely together towards the successful launch and implementation of the project. The divestment is consistent with CapitaLand's active capital management, and enables early recycling of capital ahead of the project completion,' CapitaLand said in a statutory filing with Singapore Exchange.

      'India remains a market with good potential given its huge population and strong economic growth. CapitaLand remains open to new investment opportunities in its core segments,' it added.

      The consideration was arrived at on a willing-buyer willing-seller basis, taking into account, among other factors, the value of sold units, the market value of unsold units, the costs to complete the development and the date on which the consideration is expected to be received by CapitaLand.

      Runwal CapitaLand has commissioned a valuation of the equity and preference shares of Runwal CapitaLand by an independent chartered accountant. According to the valuation report, the value of the sale shares is Rs 1,023,900,000 (about S$30 million).

      CapitaLand's carrying value of the sale shares, based on the management accounts of Lonsvale as at Sept 30, 2010 was about S$15 million.

      Are you following or listening to others on your investing?

      By Jason Zweig

      This brings me back to one of the very first things I ever published about investing: Its your money and your responsibility. (TBP mirror) Neither the Fed Chief, nor your advisor nor any guru nor blogger nor Jim Cramer. You are the one who is going to be either going to live in comfortable retirement, or eating cat food tacos.

      Monday, 1 November 2010

      Keppel’s eco homes in Tianjin Eco-City draw strong buyer interest

      1 November 2010, Singapore/Tianjin – Just over the weekend, Keppel has sold more than 90% of the 220 units released for during the soft launch of its Seasons Park residential development in the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City (Tianjin Eco-City).

      Seasons Park, comprising a total of 1,672 residences, is the first collection of eco-homes to be launched in the Keppel development where Keppel Corporation and Keppel Land have interests of 45% and 55% respectively. Keppel Land is also the project manager for the Keppel development.

      Mr Ho Cheok Kong, President, Keppel Land China, said, “We have been receiving very strong interest since the groundbreaking for Seasons Park. The positive response during our soft launch reflects the confidence of Chinese homebuyers in the Keppel quality hallmark and international experience.

      “To meet demand, we look forward to launch more homes soon and are heartened by genuine interest in the new and distinct eco-lifestyle presented in the Eco-City and our Keppel homes.”

      The average price achieved was about RMB11,000 psm for the units sold during the soft launch. Majority of the buyers are from Tianjin and surrounding regions.

      Besides leading the Singapore Consortium in the Tianjin Eco-City, Keppel will develop its own 36.6-ha site located within the Start-up Area. The entire Keppel ecodevelopment, which will be launched in phases, is expected to yield about 5,000 homes in total as well as commercial developments including office and retail with a total gross floor area of about 680,000 sm.

      Seasons Park is strategically located along the Eco-Valley, the ecological green spine linking major transit nodes, residential developments and commercial centres within the

      Eco-City. The development is also in close proximity to the Eco-Business Park and the commercial sub-centre.

      Amongst Seasons Park’s popular features with the homebuyers is the well-appointed clubhouse with facilities such as an in-door temperate swimming pool, sauna, gymnasium, snooker room and a café cum reading lounge.

      The Keppel Group will leverage core competencies and expertise for its ecodevelopment as well as its participation in and contribution to the Tianjin Eco-City which will be its showcase for sustainable developments in China.

      It will galvanise the expertise and talents of international consultants and agencies to contribute towards the development of a thriving city in an ecologically sustainable urban living environment. In line with Keppel’s commitment to the vision for the Tianjin

      Eco-City, its homes and commercial properties will be developed to achieve at least the BCA's Green Mark Gold standard or its equivalent under the Tianjin Eco-City’s Green Building Evaluation Standard (GBES). The GBES evaluates a building in six areas, namely: Land Savings & Outdoor Environment, Energy Efficiency, Materials Savings, Water Savings, Indoor Environment Quality, and Operation & Maintenance.
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