As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 85 years old in 2041 for two persons over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Click to email CW8888 or Email ID : jacobng1@gmail.com



Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Saturday, 29 February 2020

Let See How Bad This Time or This Time Is Different (2)


Read? Let See How Bad This Time or This Time Is Different


Two decades of long-term investing and short-term trading (not so good) from Jan 2000 to Feb 2020 and more than 10 years of waiting for the next market crash. Coming or not in 2020?














Friday, 28 February 2020

Singtel


SGX


Read? SGX - Turning Bearish after hitting 52WH @ $8.61???


STI : Correction or Bear?

Read? STI : Swee swee rebound??? (2)


Your battle plan guide???




Let See How Bad This Time or This Time Is Different

27 Feb 2020 as reference to see how bad this time in our local SGX market as Panda/Koala retail investor.








Illusion Of Wealth In The Bull Market

CW8888:  Another data point in the history of stock market to prove this illusion of wealth in the stock market!

Read? Stock futures point to more losses after Thursday’s massive tumble amid coronavirus fears

U.S. stock futures pointed Thursday night to more losses after the major indexes suffered a tumble that sent them more than 10% below their record highs.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 16 points, but indicated a loss of more than 150 points at Friday’s open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also pointed to a lower open on Friday.

The Dow plummeted nearly 1,200 points on Thursday — its biggest one-day point drop ever — as worries over the coronavirus possibly spreading sent stocks spiraling lower. The 30-stock average closed in correction territory along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

The Dow had closed at a record high on Feb. 12. It only took the S&P 500 six days to fall from an all-time high into correction levels, marking the broad index’s fastest drop of that magnitude.

“People have been so preconditioned to buy the dip and to always expect the market to recover that people can get smacked around with moves like this,” said Patrick Hennessy, head trader at IPS Strategic Capital. “No one knows how this thing ends.”

Thursday’s declines also put the Dow and S&P 500 down more than 10.5% each for the week, on pace for their worst weekly performance since 2008.

The sharp drop came after California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state is monitoring 8,400 people for coronavirus. Meanwhile, the CDC confirmed on Wednesday evening the first U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin in Northern California, indicating possible “community spread” of the disease.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases outside of China has also jumped. In South Korea, more than 1,700 cases have been confirmed along with over 600 in Italy.

“The timing of this was just the worst with respect to investor sentiment being elevated,” said Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group. “I’m not sure that the market has really priced in the potential economic impact of this.”

Concerns over the coronavirus have also led several companies to issue earnings and revenue warnings. Microsoft said Wednesday one of its key divisions may not meet the company’s previous revenue guidance. PayPal also warned about its outlook on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin warned U.S. companies will see no earnings growth this year. “Our reduced profit forecasts reflect the severe decline in Chinese economic activity in 1Q, lower end-demand for US exporters, disruption to the supply chain for many US firms, a slowdown in US economic activity, and elevated business uncertainty,” said Kostin, the bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist.





Thursday, 27 February 2020

STI : Swee swee rebound??? (2)


Monday, 26 August 2019

Read? STI : Swee swee rebound???

COVID-19. STI not so scary???

Trump’s comments and Microsoft’s warning came after the Dow fell more than 100 points on Wednesday, adding to its massive decline for this week. Through Wednesday’s close, the Dow has lost more than 2,000 points this week. The 30-stock average is also on pace for its worst percentage-point weekly performance since 2008, down 7% over that time.


The Dow has also fallen more than 8% from its record high set earlier this month.



Wednesday, 26 February 2020

ComfortDelgro : Bought @ $2.01 (2)


Read? ComfortDelgro : Bought @ $2.01


Straits Times Index

3,117.52

-40.72(-1.29%)

Taxi didn't crash into longkang?

Lack of shorting and selling by BBs???






Sunday, 23 February 2020

The Power of Retained Earnings: Warren Buffet


The Power of Retained Earnings

In 1924, Edgar Lawrence Smith, an obscure economist and financial advisor, wrote Common Stocks as Long Term Investments, a slim book that changed the investment world. 

Indeed, writing the book changed Smith himself,
forcing him to reassess his own investment beliefs.

Going in, he planned to argue that stocks would perform better than bonds during inflationary periods and that bonds would deliver superior returns during deflationary times. That seemed sensible enough. But Smith was in for a shock.

His book began, therefore, with a confession: “These studies are the record of a failure – the failure of facts to sustain a preconceived theory.” Luckily for investors, that failure led Smith to think more deeply about how stocks should be evaluated.

For the crux of Smith’s insight, I will quote an early reviewer of his book, none other than John Maynard Keynes: “I have kept until last what is perhaps Mr. Smith’s most important, and is certainly his most novel, point.

Well-managed industrial companies do not, as a rule, distribute to the shareholders the whole of their earned profits.

In good years, if not in all years, they retain a part of their profits and put them back into the business. Thus there is an element of compound interest (Keynes’ italics) operating in favour of a sound industrial investment. Over a period of years, the real value of the property of a sound industrial is increasing at compound interest, quite apart from the dividends paid out to the shareholders.”

And with that sprinkling of holy water, Smith was no longer obscure.

It’s difficult to understand why retained earnings were unappreciated by investors before Smith’s book was published. After all, it was no secret that mind-boggling wealth had earlier been amassed by such titans as Carnegie, Rockefeller and Ford, all of whom had retained a huge portion of their business earnings to fund growth and produce ever-greater profits


Throughout America, also, there had long been small-time capitalists who became rich following the same playbook
.
Nevertheless, when business ownership was sliced into small pieces – “stocks” – buyers in the pre-Smith years usually thought of their shares as a short-term gamble on market movements. Even at their best, stocks were considered speculations. Gentlemen preferred bonds.

Though investors were slow to wise up, the math of retaining and reinvesting earnings is now well understood. Today, school children learn what Keynes termed “novel”: combining savings with compound interest works wonders.

************

At Berkshire, Charlie and I have long focused on using retained earnings advantageously. Sometimes this job has been easy – at other times, more than difficult, particularly when we began working with huge and ever growing sums of money.

In our deployment of the funds we retain, we first seek to invest in the many and diverse businesses we already own. During the past decade, Berkshire’s depreciation charges have aggregated $65 billion whereas the company’s internal investments in property, plant and equipment have totaled $121 billion. Reinvestment in
productive operational assets will forever remain our top priority.

In addition, we constantly seek to buy new businesses that meet three criteria. First, they must earn good returns on the net tangible capital required in their operation. Second, they must be run by able and honest managers.

Finally, they must be available at a sensible price. When we spot such businesses, our preference would be to buy 100% of them. But the opportunities to make major acquisitions possessing our required attributes are rare. Far more often, a fickle stock market serves up opportunities for us to buy large, but non-controlling, positions in publicly-traded companies that meet our standards.
Whichever way we go – controlled companies or only a major stake by way of the stock market – Berkshire’s financial results from the commitment will in large part be determined by the future earnings of the business we have purchased. Nonetheless, there is between the two investment approaches a hugely important accounting difference, essential for you to understand.In our controlled companies, (defined as those in which Berkshire owns more than 50% of the shares), the earnings of each business flow directly into the operating earnings that we report to you. What you see is what you get.

In the non-controlled companies, in which we own marketable stocks, only the dividends that Berkshire receives are recorded in the operating earnings we report. The retained earnings? They’re working hard and creating much added value, but not in a way that deposits those gains directly into Berkshire’s reported earnings.


Read? The letter - Berkshire Hathaway Inc.


Read more? Relating to posting on Retained Earning

Read? You Know Company's Balance Sheet In Its Simplest Form???

Why Uncle8888 is NOT a fan of S-REITs for this simple reason - retained earning!






Friday, 21 February 2020

Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (10)


Read? Yield of dreams: Investors have "a once in a lifetime opportunity" in blue chips (9)

Read? Long or Wrong Term Investing Is Like Banging Your Head on Hindsight???

Hope that lowest dividend for Sembcorp Ind of 5.4% yield on cost in 2018 and 2019 is finally over.



ComfortDelgro : Bought @ $2.01


Read? ComfortDelgro

Hand itchy liao!

Will ComfortDelgro crash like SARS period?

Read? ComfortDelGro increases taxi rental rebates by another S$10m


In all, the total amount of relief that ComfortDelGro cabbies will receive works out to S$28 million over the next three months.






Thursday, 20 February 2020

Median household income in 2019 is $9,293


Read? Income inequality in Singapore at lowest in almost two decades: SingStat

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME ROSE

The SingStat report also said median household income from work among resident employed households - households headed by a Singapore citizen or permanent resident and at least one working member - grew 1 per cent in real terms, from S$9,293 in 2018 to S$9,425 last year. 

Household income from work refers to the sum of income from employment and business - including employer Central Provident Fund (CPF) contributions - received by all working members of the household. 

------------

Median income incl all CPF in Jun 2019 survey is $4,563

Median household income in 2019 is $9,293

We may use the above number as guide for our retirement income planning. How much is enough to live comfortably in Singapore WITHOUT squeezing ourselves too much by bench-marking to Median income level.

Median income after CPF is about $4K

Median household income after CPF is $8.2K

Monthly "passive" income per person of $4K should be okay!





Wednesday, 19 February 2020

Workfare Payouts (4)


Read? Workfare Payouts (3)

Hmm ... 

Workfare is really about Work first then Government gives some Fare. Less work. Less fare (fair)

Uncle8888's Workfare for 2019 is $2,310 because he worked less so less fare!

Read? Budget 2020: S$1.6 billion Care and Support Package to help Singaporeans with household expenses

The Government will also provide a Workfare Special Payment, with Singaporeans on Workfare receiving 20 per cent more for work done in 2019, in cash. The minimum payment is S$100.


Look like he may be getting more fare with less work! Lucky or what?





Tuesday, 18 February 2020

Return On Human Asset vs Return On Financial Assets??? (2)


Read? Return On Human Asset vs Return On Financial Assets???


In Singapore, our financial assets for retirement income and assets draw-down can be from saving, lending (bonds), investment and CPF

One data point from Uncle8888

His lifetime of 39 years of earned income as full-time employee and concurrently 20 years as retail investor in local SGX trying to build more wealth through the stock market.





















Monday, 17 February 2020

ComfortDelgro


Read? ComfortDelgro


Sunday, 16 February 2020

Becoming Successful CPFIS DIY Retail Investors???

 Our CPF OA 

The Ordinary Wage (OW) Ceiling limits the amount of OW that would attract CPF contributions. The OW Ceiling is capped at $6,000 currently. For example, if an employee’s OW for a calendar month is $6,500, his CPF contribution would be computed based on an OW of $6,000; CPF contribution is not required on the remaining $500.

Read? CPF Contribution and Allocation Rates


Median Income in Singapore

Read? Income growth slows in Singapore; median salary now above S$4,500: MOM report

Read? ​Summary Table: Income

The nominal median income of Singapore residents on full-time employment increased this year to S$4,563 from the S$4,437 recorded in 2018, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) report said.


How big is our CPFIS as war chest for market timing for the next few STI crashes?

Assuming $6K monthly CPF cap and 2 months bonus i.e. total 14 months of CPF OA and 35% of CPFOA to grow CPFIS as war chest.




















From the numbers,  it seen that most of us may not have high 6 digits in CPFIS as war chest.

So what is the other strategy to deploy our CPFIS fund into the SGX other than investing in managed fund as retail investor?

Read? Relating to CPFIS


Saturday, 15 February 2020

This time is different! SARS vs Coronavirus. Why so panic when Singapore raised its Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) level to Orange on Friday? (2)


Read? This time is different! SARS vs Coronavirus. Why so panic when Singapore raised its Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) level to Orange on Friday?


Not sure how many of us also received this forwarded Whatapps message?

Who is that bloody idiot started this chain of Whatapps messaging?


















Naturally Reduced Volatility Impact To Our Investment Portfolio In Wealth Decummulation Phase


Number doesn't lie!

As each passing year deeper into the land of decummulation during retirement; the volatility impact across market cycles to his investment is naturally reduced! 

Since it is naturally reduced year on year; what is there to worry about volatility! Right?




Thursday, 13 February 2020

Long or Wrong Term Investing Is Like Banging Your Head on Hindsight???


Alamak! Bang head for selling way too early!


Read? DBS : Sold @ $21.04


Forecast dividend has increased from $1.20 to $1.32 for FY 20






Saturday, 8 February 2020

This time is different! SARS vs Coronavirus. Why so panic when Singapore raised its Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) level to Orange on Friday?

The panic level was raised so fast and extreme!

The cause was due to contagious messages from WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram  keep escalating the panic but not the actual virus itself!

During SARS; no WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram. Right?

KNS!



Tuesday, 4 February 2020

Rent out your spare rooms for passive income??? (2)



Living with strangers may pose health hazards to the family. Who knows what diseases your tenants may be carrying?


For this round is Coronavirus: Some landlords in Singapore, fearing infection risk, turn away tenants returning from China

Read? Rent out your spare rooms for passive income???


Monday, 3 February 2020

Retirement May Actually Be Bad For Health


He retired at 65.

He suffered stroke at 67.

Now, he is 69!

After more than one year of painful and tearful struggle on stroke rehabilitation; he finally able to walk steady without his walking stick!

Now, everyday; he enjoys his walk and drinking plenty of water!

Life after retirement

After his retirement at 65; he has plenty of spare time and what did he do to past time?

More spare time means he has more time for smoking and also more time for drinking beer while watching endless TV and videos.

He said that this is how he ended up with stroke - more time for smoking and drinking after retirement!














STI At 50-50 Support Line: Rebound or Breakdown



Lai lai!

Place your bet!

50-50 tomorrow




Sunday, 2 February 2020

He Has Retired At 58! (2)


Read? He Has Retired At 58!

Ex-bosses and me

When they know that you are active in the investment space. 

Read? Now It Is Alright For Him To Ask Share


Ha ha!

Something that is still of common interests that talk about even after retirement!

Ex-boss asked him how is the market going forward?

This time; he wanted to park some retirement fund into stocks for second stream of "passive" income on top of his rental income.

He bought SIA on Friday and asked okay or not?

Told him that Uncle8888 also tracked SIA and told him SIA low at SARS and Sep 11.

SIA has survived SARS and Sep 11. 

He smiled and said he has planned to Average In!

He also mentioned Kep Corp and Temasek "taking over". 

When Uncle8888 mentioned his Kep Corp position and yield since 2001; he surprised out with  a loud Wah!

Read? Why I Don't Average Down?





















How To Make My Investment Portfolio More Defensive???


Finally; after 20 years across market cycles; Uncle8888 realized this practical and realistic way to make his investment portfolio more defensive. Hee hee!

When he started spending his passive income; his investment portfolio investment is becoming more defensive. 






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