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This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down


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Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Monday, 30 November 2009

Noble - Classic example of Trending Stock


DBS’ exposure to the entire Middle East region accounts for around 2% of its balance sheet

SINGAPORE, 30 November 2009 - DBS said today its total exposure to the city-state of Dubai is approximately SGD1.8 billion (USD1.28 billion). The bank believes that the situation is manageable as a substantial portion of this is to Dubai-owned companies operating in Asia that are sound, such as Labroy and South Beach, which is collateralised.


As of today, the only credit that is captured under the standstill notice is a SGD558 million (USD400 million) bilateral loan to Dubai World Finance, which represents 0.2% of DBS’ total balance sheet. The bank has no exposure to Nakheel.

DBS’ exposure to the entire Middle East region accounts for around 2% of its balance sheet.

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CreateWealth8888:

With this announcement, will it stop further panic sellling in DBS?

How will reverse mortgage affect Baby Boomers?

Posting this article by Jennifer Lohan on her behalf for sharing.

Baby boomers are trying hard not to get glued to their medical scooters, walkers, wheelchairs and lift chairs to spend the rest of their lives. So, they are turning to reverse mortgage so that they can stay on in their homes. Reverse mortgage is a type of home loan that will enable you to tap the equity that is trapped in your home. So, when you take out a reverse mortgage, you are freeing up the equity in your property.


Reports furnished by the American Housing Survey (AHS) state that approximately 25 million homeowners are without mortgage debt and about 12.5 million of them are seniors and 62 years or more (as of June 2009). For majority of the senior homeowners, equity is their biggest asset.

When do you qualify for a reverse mortgage?


You are eligible to take out a reverse mortgage under the following circumstances –

  • You have to be 62 years or older.
  • The house in which you are residing has to be your primary residence
  • You needn’t have a good credit. 
  • There are no income requirements

 How does a conventional mortgage differ from reverse mortgage?


In case of a conventional mortgage, you have to make payments to the lender each month. You should have a steady flow of income that can support your monthly mortgage payments. On the contrary, in reverse mortgage, you don’t have to make payments to the mortgage lender till the time you are residing in the house or till the time you live.


Are reverse mortgage proceeds taxable?


The proceeds of reverse mortgage are tax free as it is a loan advance and isn’t treated as income. You can receive the proceeds in the following manner –

  •  As lump sum 
  • Line of credit 
  • Monthly payments that are fixed 
  • By combining 2 or more of the above methods

 The cash you get from reverse mortgage can be used for any expense you desire and usually includes the following –

  •  Your daily expenses 
  • Medical bills 
  • Prescription drugs 
  • Traveling 
  • Funding education of a family member 
  • Paying off existing debts 
  • Home improvement and repair work 
  • Long term care insurance 
  • Estate tax 
  • Funding financial plans etc

 
What are the benefits of taking out a reverse mortgage?

 
  • You won’t lose your home -Unlike a conventional mortgage where you may have to lose your home in foreclosure due to non-payment, in case of reverse mortgage, you don’t have that fear.

  •  Proceeds are tax free- The amount you get from reverse mortgage doesn’t attract any tax.

  •  You retain homeownership- Reverse mortgage allows you to retain homeownership till the end.

  •  Funds can be used according to your wish- As mentioned above; you can use the money for fulfilling any financial obligation.

  •  No income requirements or credit checks

  •   It is easier to qualify for the reverse mortgage loan

  •  It offers flexible payment options as you can receive the money according to your choice (lump sum, line of credit etc)

 With so many benefits offered by reverse mortgage, Baby Boomers are expected to be equipped financially so that their golden years are not glued to hospital beds

False Wealth?

Stock Market is truly a False Wealth generating machinery. During Bull Run, it can make every one feel so rich and during the Bear Raid, it makes everyone looks so poor. Why do we need to feel so?

Critical Illness cover – the pitfalls

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/09/getting-to-heart-of-critical-illness.html

Bryan Nott , 23/04/2009 , News articles and press releases by Simpson Millar LLP

A recent independent study by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) warns consumers of the not giving the right information when buying critical illness policies.


Most people take out a critical illness insurance policy in case they become seriously ill.

The study revealed that:

68% of policyholders assumed they could claim for any illness that meant they could not work


55% believed they only needed to provide more information eg smoking behaviour or family history eg cancer when and if they made a claim

It is important that all consumers are aware that not every illness is covered under these types of policies and they should find out exactly which illnesses are covered and at which stage of the disease they may be entitled to make a claim.

By failing to give detailed information at the outset of the policy you could find yourself in the position of potential claims being invalid. It is also extremely important that you inform the insurance providers of any changes to your family history of illness or your own in order to ensure that any future claims have the best possible chance of being honoured.

The FSA believes that the study's results are worrying and believes that the limitation of the cover is not necessarily being adequately explained to consumers during the sales process.

The study also showed that although consumer thought they had been given all the details they needed during the sales process many were hazy on the finer points of the insurance policies.
------------------------------------------
 
CreateWealth8888:
 
If one can only claim during late stage of illness, CI doesn't really help. Late stage illness means no chance for survival. The difference in claim from CI and claim from death is just probably earlier by less than six months given the survival rate from late stage of illness is probably less than six month.
 
I think it is easier to withdraw your CPF due to critical illness than to claim for CI.
 
CPF FAQ:
 
Q: Can I withdraw my CPF if I am no longer fit for employment? If so, what do I need to do?


A: You may apply to withdraw your CPF in the Ordinary and Special Accounts if you are suffering from an illness which has resulted in you being permanently unfit from ever continuing in any employment.


You may apply for withdrawal online under my cpf Online Services - My Requests if you have a SingPass. Alternatively, you can also complete the application form CPF-MGS and mail it to us.

To support your application, please mail us a doctor's letter (dated within six months of your application) stating your illness.


Once we receive your completed forms and documents, we will obtain a medical report from your doctor or refer you to our panel of doctors to assess whether you are eligible to withdraw your CPF savings on medical grounds.


 
Do consider to include medical insurance and self funding. (keep sufficient large amount of money in yr CPF account).
 
BTW, I don't have any CI coverage; but, I do have medishield plus, medisave, and enough money in the CPF account to beat the CI coverage for the same amount of CI insurance premium that I could afford to pay.

Sunday, 29 November 2009

Portfolio Management - Passive Income (Re-visit)

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/10/portfolio-management-passive-income.html

me & my money, Nov 29, 2009, thesundaytimes

Some interesting points:

1. Like me, Wai Chung also spurred by the book - Rich Dad Poor Dad.

2. His passive income come from stock dividends.

Don't forget to include dividend play stocks in your Portfolio even you are a frequent trader and it helps.

Cash Is King?

Someone said this: "better to keep cash, i.e. put in a bank to earn 0.5% per annum. This may be a poor return, and does not cover inflation, but it is safer". He doesn't like the stock market now.
----------------------------------------------------------------
CreateWealth8888:

Is this a reasonable good advice?

BTW, he is not a money manager. For investing in stock market, one should listen to proven long time money manager like Anthony Bolton.

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/running-money.html

Important points to recap:

A GOOD investor gets it right 60 per cent of the time, says veteran fund manager Anthony Bolton. As for the rest of the rest of the time that he is wrong, the challenge is to 'just keep going'. 'When you make mistakes, learn but don't get too depressed. I sometimes see managers get into a declining spiral when they have bad performance, and they can't get back again. You have to be detached. You're going to have good times and bad, and you have to just keep going.'
'My best guess is we're in a bull market that will be multi-year. The first phase is a very strong phase, but because I think a lot of professional investors have missed out on the rise, it probably doesn't stop until a lot of them are sucked into the market. (CreateWealth8888: Stock markets are always driven up or down by the professional investors i.e. money managers)


'I think we're getting towards the end of the first phase. It could finish now or early next year. Then we get to a slightly different marketplace. There have been certain types of companies to own in the first phase. The types to own in the next will be slightly different.' (CreateWealth8888: Do your homework and open your eyes wide for the "types" to own)

'I generally found the companies that I lost the most money in were those that had high gearing. It's not that I would recommend to people never to invest in companies with high gearing or weak balance sheets, but you want to do it with your eyes open. If something changes for the worse, you want to get out quickly because the downside can be a long way.

'Someone has asked me - but surely low growth is bad for markets. I disagree. What markets don't like is overheating and rates going up. I think if you have low but sustainable growth and low rates, and if you can find growth stocks in that, you'll do very well.'
 
He tells punters who invest directly in stocks to do their homework and monitor market sentiment. 'The best opportunity to buy is when everyone hates stocks. You need a contrarian ability. I've been in the industry so long. I think if you get it right 60 per cent of the time, you're doing great.'

Rather than set a stop loss, investors should have an 'investment thesis' or a rationale to hold a stock, he says. Once that thesis is no longer valid, the stock should be sold - even at a loss. Mr Bolton is mainly a fundamentalist, but uses technical analysis which helps in timing and size decisions. 'If I'm looking at a stock that has done well for seven years, I look at it differently from one that hasn't done well,' he says. 'A stock that has done well has most of the good news in the price. If things change, there are lots of profits that people can take so investors are likely to suffer on the downside.'

As he writes in his latest book, investors should forget the price they paid for a share as it can become a psychological barrier when the price falls. 'The investment thesis is the key - check it regularly. If this changes for the worse and the share is no longer a buy and probably therefore a sell, you should take action regardless of the price being below what you paid. Trying to make money back in a share when you have lost money to date, just to prove your initial thesis was correct, is very dangerous. As a general rule in investment, it's not good practice to try and make it back the way you lost it.' (CreateWealth8888: Do you Average Down? - most retail investors love to average down. http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/search?q=average+down .

One should only do Average In, i.e you have pre-determined x% of your investing capital for that particular stock and buy them in batches when the stock price fall and not adding more capital just because it is getting cheaper)

Since when Stock Market is not risky? When I was younger, I have many times heard from many senior relatives and senior citizens telling me stock market is very risky. If I have listen to them, probably I will be having negative returns after inflation.

Saturday, 28 November 2009

Portfolio Management - The Importance Of Realized Profit

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/portfolio-management-asset-allocation.html

What were you thinking on Thursday and Friday when major markets around the world tumbled? Are you terrified by the -5% drop in HSI?

One good way to overcome this Fear is to have good buffer of realized profit and use the realized profit to diversify into different sectors.

When the panic selling hits the market, some may withdraw completely from the market and stay in cash and observe the market for a while. Others may switch to more defensive counters or counters that have little or not linked directly with the cause of the panic. So when panicky investors switched into your counters; your portfolio may be spared from huge damages from the meltdown.

It is also a good time to review what are those counters that survive this melt down and you may want to include them if they are not already in your portfolio.

How to have more and more realized profit? You have to SELL.

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/sell-is-not-dirty-word.html

DOW closed down -1.48% but FTSE recovered and up by 0.99%

Think not too bad. STI may escape bloodshed on Monday.


Friday, 27 November 2009

Keppel is first foreign property developer to break ground in Tianjin Eco-City

The Keppel Group of companies will leverage core competencies and expertise for their participation in and contribution to the Eco-City. Keppel Corporation and Keppel Land have interests of 45% and 55% respectively in the development.

“With the commencement of work today on Keppel’s development, we are making significant strides forward in our contribution towards the vision for a vibrant community in a desirable eco-driven live-work-play environment in Tianjin Eco-City.


“This will be Keppel’s showcase for sustainable developments in China and we will realise this vision with our competencies and experience,” said Mr Choo Chiau Beng
 
The Tianjin Eco-City is a landmark bilateral project between China and Singapore with private-sector investment and development. Located in the Tianjin Binhai New Area, the 30-sq km Tianjin Eco-City is envisioned to create a harmonious and sustainable community that meets the needs of an urbanising China and will be a modern township where 350,000 residents can live, work and play.


When completed, the 4-sq km SUA will be home to 26,500 households, with the first batch of residents expected to move in around 2011.

Sanity Check On The Strength Of Your Portfolio

Come next week, when STI tumbles, we will be able to find out the strength of our portfoilio and does stocks diversification help to mitigate the degree of damages?

Roller Coaster Ride expected?

Be mentally prepared for a deep ride down .................. This time will need the help of World Bank and IMF. Not sure any of SG banks affected?

City Developments Ltd is studying news of a restructuring of Dubai World, which is a partner in a CDL-led consortium that will develop the landmark South Beach site in Singapore


Worst Market


Masud said in April that Dubai house prices might drop as much as 70 percent from their peak last year. They’ve already fallen by more than 50 percent, making the emirate the worst-hit market in the global real estate slump.

Around half of the investors in the 40,000 unfinished homes may default by the end of next year, said Masud, who covers companies including Emaar Properties PJSC and Aldar Properties PJSC, the U.A.E.’s largest developers.

The Dubai government said yesterday it borrowed $5 billion from state-owned banks based in Abu Dhabi, half the $10 billion Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum said he planned to raise by the end of this year. The debt raised yesterday may not be enough, said Masud.



“One of the main off-balance sheet liabilities in Dubai’s property market is the funding gap to finish properties that are already started and which investors are defaulting on,” he said. “The fundamental liabilities are much larger.”



There is no certainty that Dubai World will successfully postpone debt payments because creditors have to vote on the proposal, Masud said.

Dubai Debt Delay Rattles Confidence in Gulf Borrowers

Dubai World’s more than 70 creditors face the prospect of writedowns on as much as $60 billion of debt if they haven’t unloaded their holdings and the state-owned company fails to win additional support from Abu Dhabi.




The biggest creditors are Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirate NBD PJSC. Other lenders include Credit Suisse Group AG, HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, according to a person familiar with the situation. Barclays slumped as much as 6.9 percent, the biggest intraday loss in a month, while RBS sank as much as 8.3 percent. Lloyds and Credit Suisse dropped more than 3 percent.

“Our exposure is immaterial,” said Credit Suisse spokesman Marc Dosch. HSBC, Lloyds and RBS declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg. Simon Eaton, a spokesman for Barclays Capital in London, also declined to comment.

Thursday, 26 November 2009

Kep Corp - Desperate Selling?



Book on TA for Beginners



If you are interested in learning TA, you may wish to borrow this book from our NLB.

Noble - Closed at a new high


If you are a Trend Follower, how often can you see such a long trending stock and diagonally UP?

Keep breaking all time high and making it so tempting to take profit; but after watching today actions on Noble, I am suspecting a few strong hands are supporting it and taking out all sellers.

I think I will keep it till the next bull. Cheers!

Dow Closes at 13-Month High; VIX Nears 20



Not too bad?

Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Greed And Fear - Part 5

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/greed-and-fear-part-4.html



In  “Trading in the Zone”, Douglas wrote that all trading errors due to Fears.

Four Primary Fears:

1. The fear of being wrong.
2. The fear of losing money.
3. The fear of missing out (on the trade and profits).
4. The fear of leaving money on the table, or giving back open profits.

These fears lead traders to second-guess their trading rules and strategies. They might buy too early as they were afraid  that the market was going to run away without them. And they might sell too soon as they were so worry that the market would snatch their profit, and not waiting for the trade to develop and to hit their set target.

The solution?

1. Have a  system.
2. Have a clear set of rules for entering and exiting trades.
3. Follow your rules!


Have faith in your system and faith in your rules. If your system is a good one you will make money.

So you must follow the rules of your system, instead of reacting to your emotions when deciding whether to enter or exit a trade.

Noble - Still Trending Up


 A super trending stock, how could one evaluate such stock?
Keep breaking all time high and every move up means over-value. Sell?






Kep Corp - Green shoot?



Will it follow like Semb Corp?

Keppel acquires Singapore’s largest district cooling systems service provider

Deputy Chairman of KIE, Mr Michael Chia, said, “The transaction complements and broadens KIE’s existing capabilities in environmental technology solutions and facilities management. First DCS will not only provide an additional recurring income stream for KIE, but also allow KIE to explore more opportunities arising from the drive for more environmentally friendly and energy-efficient solutions in Singapore and the region.

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Look like KIE is adding more wings and will it become a stronger Division in Kep Corp?

Keppel clinches marine contracts worth $165 million from Petrobras & Saipem

Another two contracts. You are man!!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Singapore, 25 November 2009 – Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M), through Keppel Shipyard Limited (Keppel Shipyard) and Keppel Verolme BV (Keppel Verolme), has secured two contracts worth a total of about $165 million.

The first project, secured by Keppel Shipyard from repeat customer Petrobras Netherlands B.V (PNBV), is for the pre-conversion of P-58, a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel for the Campos Basin.

The second project involves the repair and modification of the semisubmersible pipelay vessel, Castoro Sei for Saipem S.p.A (Saipem) by Keppel Verolme.

Mr Tong Chong Heong, CEO of Keppel O&M said, "As a Group, Keppel O&M has built a strong reputation and a trusted brand name for diverse projects with safe and efficient turnaround.

“We hope that with our versatility, experience and expertise, we continue to be provider of choice for the international market.”

Mr Renato de Souza Duque, Services Director of Petrobras, said, “We know Keppel very well. They have completed many projects for us successfully and have demonstrated excellent project management and reliability. We look forward to another high quality project from them.”

Keppel Shipyard’s scope of work on P-58 includes structural and piping renewal, tank coating as well as refurbishment and upgrading of the accommodation.

When completed in the first quarter of 2011, the vessel will sail to Brazil for the rest of the conversion which includes completion works of the topsides.

P-58 will have a production capacity of 180,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and gas compression capacity of 6,000,000 m3 per day. It will operate in Parque das Baleias’ north field, in Campos Basin and spread moored in a water depth of 1,400 metres.

“We are pleased to work on another major project with our valued customer Petrobras. The fruitful relationship we have built up with them over the years will enable us to work hand in hand to complete this project successfully,” Mr Tong added

Greed And Fear - Part 4

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/10/greed-and-fear-part-3.html

I have this chance to observe how the Greed and Fear action played out in a trader on her trade on Kep Corp.


She has queued to sell at $8.44 and sudden movement of price up and she quickly withdrew her sell order. She was very happy and hoped that Kep Corp could continue to move up.

However, an hour later, when HSI dropped sharply, probably due to stumbling of SSE when the Central Banker may tighten Chinese banks’ capital requirement.

Fear of losing and she pressed the panic Sell button at $8.41.

Guess what, Kep Corp recovered and continue to power up. The reason for more buying interests from BBs probably due to several month of dry spell (no orders announcement) and suddenly out of the blue, it announced 2 orders. The better one is on drill ships which many analysts believe that Kep is unable to compete.

In a long spell of dry season, 1 day of rain may bring hope to the farmers.

How can we probably overcome this Fear and Greed in the market to make better decision?

I am still working hard on it. FA or/and TA for Exit strategy?

Tuesday, 24 November 2009

The Case for Retiring in a Bear Market

by Jonathan Clements

In a sense, a bear market creates a financial cushion. If you can look at your beaten-up portfolio and remain confident that you have enough to retire, maybe you are indeed in good enough financial shape.


Of course, you might get a little impatient waiting for the next bear market to arrive. Want to retire today? Before you tell the boss, take your stock portfolio's value and mentally lop off 30%. Still feel you have enough money socked away? That's probably a good sign.

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CreateWealth8888:

That is probably close to my thinking of building a stock portfolio by discounting 30% as part of retirement fund.

5 Myths About ETFs

CreateWealth8888:

Investing in ETFs may not be simple as what you think and you still need to spend fair amount of time and energy to pick the right ETFs that are suitable for your investing goals and horizon; otherwise, it is probably just "blind" investing and hoping for the best.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
by Michael Iachini

Key points


  • Here are five commonly held myths of ETF investing and why it pays to look beyond your first assumptions.
  • Consider carefully what it is you're looking for from an ETF before you buy—and make sure your ETF delivers what you need.
  • Find out whether ETF investing is right for your portfolio needs.
you probably know a thing or two about exchange-traded funds, better known as ETFs. You know that ETFs are basically index mutual funds that trade like stocks. You know that they have low expenses and are easy to trade. You know that they are a cheap, easy, tax-efficient way to get good diversification.


Or you think you know all of that.

In fact, many ETFs may not have all of the good characteristics that you associate with this increasingly popular investment type:

Many ETFs have higher expenses than you might expect.

Some ETFs can be difficult and expensive to trade.

Rather than traditional indexing, some ETFs flirt very openly with active management.

Some ETFs can give you taxable income.

Certain ETFs give you no diversification at all.

Here are five commonly held myths of ETF investing and why it pays to look beyond your first assumptions.


Myth No. 1: All ETFs have low expenses

The first thing that many investors think about when they consider the good qualities of ETFs is the low expenses they carry. This is true for many traditional ETFs, such as the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500® index and carries a tiny expense ratio of 0.09%.

But did you know that some ETFs charge much more? For instance, most ETFs that track single-country indexes—such as the iShares for the United Kingdom (EWU), Australia (EWA) and Germany (EWG)—charge 0.52%.

You'll also tend to pay more for funds that are focused on a specific industry, such as the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil and Gas ETF (IEO), which charges 0.48%.


Another example: ETFs that follow unconventional indexes, such as WisdomTree DEFA High-Yielding Equity ETF (DTH), which charges 0.58% and weights stocks according to fundamentals like earnings, dividends and cash flow.

ETF expenses currently top out at 1.53% with Claymore/Ocean Tomo Growth (OTR), an ETF that aims to invest in companies that own valuable patents.

The expenses might be worthwhile if you need the specific exposure the ETFs provide, and they are still generally less expensive than many actively managed mutual funds. But be aware: The fact that something is an ETF doesn't necessarily mean it's the cheapest option.

If you're trying to compare expenses between an ETF and a mutual fund, the expense ratio is a good place to start.


Myth No. 2: All ETFs are easy and cheap to trade


Investors also love ETFs because of their liquidity—the ease with which they can be bought and sold. It's true that you can trade ETFs anytime during the day, just like a stock.

But there's a cost to trading, and it's not just commissions. Whenever you buy or sell anything on an exchange, there's a bid-ask spread—the difference between the higher price at which investors are asking to sell and the lower price at which they're offering to buy.

For ETFs that are actively traded all day long, the bid-ask spread tends to be quite small. But less-liquid ETFs (that is, those that are harder to trade) tend to have much larger spreads.

In addition, unlike open-end mutual funds, the price of an ETF doesn't necessarily match the net asset value (NAV) of the securities in its portfolio. The difference is known as the discount or premium to NAV, and it can be very unpredictable.

More-liquid ETFs tend to have smaller discounts and premiums. So while you can trade an illiquid ETF anytime, it might cost more in spreads.

For example, one lesser-known ETF, Claymore/Zacks Country Rotation ETF (CRO)—which tracks an index of international stocks that changes its country focus over time— had an average daily trading volume for the month of July 2009 of only $15,000 per day, with no volume at all on eight of the 22 trading days in the month.

During the same period, the widely traded S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) had an average daily volume of more than $18 billion—over one million times that of the lesser-known fund.

According to data from XTF, the average bid-ask spread for the less-liquid CRO fund during this period was 1.66% of the price of the fund. During the same period, the average bid-ask spread for the ultra-liquid SPY fund was only 0.01%.

If you had accepted the price the market had set each time you traded, it could have cost you 1.66% of your investment to trade CRO but only 0.01% to trade SPY.


Myth No. 3: All ETFs are index funds


You may like ETFs because they're index funds. With an index fund, you get all of the stocks in the index without having to worry about whether the portfolio manager is picking the right securities or not—the manager just buys them all.

However, not all indexes tracked by ETFs are traditional market indexes like the S&P 500.

Some indexes, like the PowerShares Intellidex indexes, are effectively actively managed; the company that puts the index together tries to include only stocks that it believes will outperform the market. And a few truly actively managed ETFs have been launched recently, such as Grail American Beacon Large Cap Value ETF (GVT).

This leaves you open to the possibility that the people or companies assembling the index will be wrong about which stocks will outperform. That's called active management risk, and avoiding that risk is one of the features of indexing that some ETFs fail to provide.

For example, the PowerShares Dynamic Market ETF (PWC), which is a total-market fund (meaning it includes very small to very large companies), has outperformed the total-market Russell 3000® index (which follows the 3,000 largest public US companies) by as much as 2.9% in a single month since its June 2003 launch—but it has also underperformed that index by as much as 4.2% in a single month.

Contrast this with a traditional total-market index ETF, the iShares Russell 3000 Index (IWV), whose returns have been within 0.05% of the index every month in that time period. While the more active fund may outperform a traditional index, the risk of underperforming is present, as well.

One way to tell if you're getting an actively managed fund in disguise is to read the language in the ETF's prospectus describing the index the fund is following. If the index picks stocks that are "expected to outperform," investigate further.

Myth No. 4: All ETFs are tax-efficient


Much has been made of the tax-efficient nature of ETFs, and it's true that they are often more tax-efficient than similar mutual funds.


Myth No. 5: All ETFs give you diversification


Finally, you may like the easy diversification provided by an ETF—by making one trade, you suddenly have a well-diversified domestic equity portfolio. This is certainly true for many ETFs. For instance, by buying one share of the iShares Russell 3000 Index (IWV), you gain exposure to nearly all stocks in the US markets.



This isn't true of all ETFs, though. Very narrow ETFs may provide you with very little diversification. iShares Dow Jones US Energy (IYE) looks diversified with 76 holdings, until you realize that more than half of its assets are concentrated in just five stocks! Buying shares of a gold (IAU, GLD) or silver (SLV) ETF gives you access to exactly one asset.



Generally speaking, the more narrowly defined the index, the less diversification it gives you. You can find the percentage of a fund concentrated in its top 10 holdings in the ETF Visual Screener on Schwab.com.



Myths debunked

Now you understand that not all ETFs are alike. Although many ETFs are good tools for providing inexpensive, highly liquid, tax-efficient diversification without taking on active management risk, some ETFs fail to live up to this billing.



Consider carefully what it is you're looking for from an ETF before you buy—and make sure your ETF delivers what you need

DOW - Recovered past 3 sessions of losses in a single scoop





Monday, 23 November 2009

Shake That Seller's Mindset?

If you are sitting on nice pile of unrealized profit, should we take realized profit now or risk the market taking them back. How to shake that Seller's mindset?

May we should be using Trailing Stop to capture as near to the top as possible instead of selling near or at the resistance?

SCI - Still Got Leg To run?



Three Marching White Soliders tomorrow?

Keppel to build Vietnam’s first semi-submersible drilling tender for US$200 million

Singapore, 23 November 2009 – Keppel FELS Limited (Keppel FELS) has received a Letter of Award from PetroVietnam Drilling and Well Services Corporation (PV Drilling) to build the country’s first semi-submersible drilling tender assist rig worth about US$200 million (S$277.3 million).


Wow. Another contract win for Kep Corp. Cheers!

SEMBCORP SIGNS CONTRACT FOR US$1 BILLION SALALAH INDEPENDENT

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/sci-weekly-more-to-come.html

As suspected, some are better informed. Market is never a level playing field.

SEPCO III Electric Power Construction Corporation (SEPCO III) of China is the engineering, procurement and construction contractor under a fixed-price, date-certain turnkey contract and Hydrochem (S), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hyflux, is the sub-contractor for the seawater desalination plant.

Watch out for Hyflux too!

Keppel to upgrade and repair 2 Noble drillships for US$304 million in Brazil

Finally, Keppel Corp has a contract win announcement. Phew!

Sunday, 22 November 2009

Olam Weekly - Getting weaker?


Running money

Published November 21, 2009, BT Weekend

Anthony Bolton's contrarian streak and eye for turnaround stocks has won him much acclaim in fund management and billions in assets for Fidelity. The retired fund manager remains very much involved in finance

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/why-do-we-still-need-to-read-charts.html

CreateWealth8888: Look at what I had posted on 2 May 09 an article where Anthony Bolton despite the March rally seeming to have petered out in the past couple of weeks and the uncertainty now posed by the swine flu outbreak. He was sticking his neck out and announcing the end of the bear market

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/05/announcing-end-of-bear-market.html

A GOOD investor gets it right 60 per cent of the time, says veteran fund manager Anthony Bolton. As for the rest of the rest of the time that he is wrong, the challenge is to 'just keep going'. 'When you make mistakes, learn but don't get too depressed. I sometimes see managers get into a declining spiral when they have bad performance, and they can't get back again. You have to be detached. You're going to have good times and bad, and you have to just keep going.'

'To spot turning points, I look at patterns of bull and bear. They're never quite the same. When the market has been rising for a long time and has risen a long way, I'm more cautious. And when the market has fallen a lot and for a long time, as it was in the first quarter, I'm more optimistic.

'Then I look at sentiment of investors. When they're very cautious I try to be optimistic. I look at long term valuations over more than 20 years. If the three line up with each other as they did in the first quarter, you may not get the exact date, but you could get the quarter right if you're lucky.

'My best guess is we're in a bull market that will be multi-year. The first phase is a very strong phase, but because I think a lot of professional investors have missed out on the rise, it probably doesn't stop until a lot of them are sucked into the market.

'I think we're getting towards the end of the first phase. It could finish now or early next year. Then we get to a slightly different marketplace. There have been certain types of companies to own in the first phase. The types to own in the next will be slightly different.'

'It's very difficult in short periods to differentiate between luck and judgement. You can do well for a couple of years purely by luck and no judgement. Our analysts rotate and cover an industry for two to three years. Most analysts go through two to three rotations, so it takes five to seven years before they get a chance to be a fund manager.

'When you work with an analyst for five to six years, you can tell if they have it or not. You see what their recommendations do, how they react when things go wrong. I think it takes that amount of time. You can really only assess potential people to be fund managers if you work closely with them for a number of years.'

He is frank about his mistakes, devoting a chapter to recounting them in his book. One of the disasters was a conglomerate called Parkfield which became one of his top 10 holdings in the early 1990s. It subsequently went into receivership and its shares were suspended and effectively worthless. He did not scrutinise gearing closely enough, he says. 'I have nearly always found you lose the most money on companies that are poorly financed when conditions change. The strength of a company's balance sheet is very important.

'I generally found the companies that I lost the most money in were those that had high gearing. It's not that I would recommend to people never to invest in companies with high gearing or weak balance sheets, but you want to do it with your eyes open. If something changes for the worse, you want to get out quickly because the downside can be a long way.'

The latest banking crisis, he says, was the sixth he has weathered. 'When our instincts tell us it's time to quit, this is nearly always the wrong course of action. The outlook for markets will look its worst at the bottom. I think to be a good investor and to avoid getting shaken out of markets when they are low or sucked into markets when they are high, you need to be somewhat detached.'

Paradoxically, he believes a backdrop of low growth and low interest rates are good for investments.

'Part of my thesis is that we're going back to a period of low growth in developed markets, and I think we'll have low rates for the next couple of years. Low growth rates are actually a good environment for stock market investing.

'Someone has asked me - but surely low growth is bad for markets. I disagree. What markets don't like is overheating and rates going up. I think if you have low but sustainable growth and low rates, and if you can find growth stocks in that, you'll do very well.'
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CreateWealth8888:

Hmm... let open our eyes to look for growth stocks in SGX. Which ones?

The Compound Magic Of Stock Transaction Timing - Part 2

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/10/compound-magic-of-stock-transaction.html





I believe many investors love the Rule Of 72 and start thinking how long would it take to double their investing capital?



Take a good look at STI main data point since 1990. We have to be realistic and mindful that the Rule of 72 can only work well in a prolong Bull market or unless Investors turn into Speculators and start shorting the market on the way down.

For the Rule of 72 to really work in our favor, we may have to time the market; and have to be good at market timing to avoid those market crashes or major corrections. It just takes 1 or 2 bad years to wipe off much of the past gains if our portfolio is caught by market crashes or major corrections.

So do you think that market timing is important for Rule Of 72 to work for you?

Technical Indicators?

Technical indicators come in three time zones.


A leading indicator tells what's going to happen -- like the smell of pizza in a box suggests that a meal's near.

A coincident indicator tells what's happening now -- the pizza's being eaten.

A lagging indicator tells what happened -- like an empty pizza box.

But some things don't act as indicators at all -- a pizza coupon in the newspaper doesn't necessarily mean a meal is about to happen, is happening or has happened.

When considering indicators, it's also important to remember that the closer a predictive value comes to 50-50, the less useful it is. You might as well flip a coin.

Saturday, 21 November 2009

Understanding Stock Market Risks - No 6 Risk

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/09/understanding-stock-market-risks.html

6. Liquidity Risk

This risk is associated with the ability to sell out our stocks easily without depressing the price level further and causing potential buyers to retreat to sideline in anticipation of more fire sales coming.

It is true that when we buy stocks which have low liquidity; we can have all the time in the world to buy slowly. I am not sure if the opposite is true when you need to sell? Do you really have the time in the world to sell slowly? Probably, you may have urgent need to raise money; otherwise, why would you be selling?

Some General Advices To Newbies In Trading

Some general advices to newbies in trading on possible sources of weaknesess:

  • insufficient capital
  • lack of knowledge and skills
  • lack of viable trading strategies and tactics
  • lack of emotional control
  • lack of buying and selling decision
  • lack of transactions history
  • lack of patience
The good news is all these weaknesses can be overcome and you will be successful. Cheers!

You may want to first read up on posting related to Stock Market ..

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/search/label/Education%20-%20Trading%20-%20Market

TA - Always Two Sides To Every Technical Decision



You may look at a chart with your own favourite indicators and system and see one thing, while another person who likes to look for e.g. reversals may look at the chart and see something else or totally different. Every buyer and seller have their own reasons to buy or sell and every transaction is matched between buyer and seller.


So who is right? Well, only the future will tell. You have to keep good record of every transaction you have made, and honestly you asked yourself, are you getting nearer to your trading goals or you are just making some wins and losses here and there and not really accelerating towards your trading/investing goals. Or you are just enjoying trading?

Olam Weekly


Noble Weekly


Market Crashes: What are Crashes and Bubbles?

From http://www.investopedia.com/


A bubble is a type of investing phenomenon that demonstrates the frailty of some facets of human emotion. A bubble occurs when investors put so much demand on a stock that they drive the price beyond any accurate or rational reflection of its actual worth, which should be determined by the performance of the underlying company. Like the soap bubbles a child likes to blow, investing bubbles often appear as though they will rise forever, but since they are not formed from anything substantial, they eventually pop. And when they do, the money that was invested into them dissipates into the wind.

A crash is a significant drop in the total value of a market, almost undoubtedly attributable to the popping of a bubble, creating a situation wherein the majority of investors are trying to flee the market at the same time and consequently incurring massive losses. Attempting to avoid more losses, investors during a crash are panic selling, hoping to unload their declining stocks onto other investors. This panic selling contributes to the declining market, which eventually crashes and affects everyone
 
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CreateWealth8888:

Asia is faced an asset bubble, due to speculation in real estates caused by low interest rate, due to stimulus spending by governments in many countries - NYTimes


With the current very low interest rate, many potential retail property investors ( defined as those are seriously net worth negative after taking on the housing loans as leverages) are thinking that investing in properties is the way to go for potential cash flow and future capital gains. How nice is to be a landlord?

Yes. While it is true that the fastest way to build up your wealth is through using the biggest leverages that you can find. But, retail property investors also have to be mindful that leverage is a double edged sword - it can also kill you faster than expected.
 
What made you think that the interest rate will remain low for a long time? Look at the historical Fed Rate, it could rise faster than expected and could keep rising for a long while.

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/search/label/Charts%20-%20Fed%20Rate

And if the interest rate is rising faster than expected, what will happen to the wonderful dreams of those retail property investors ( defined as those are seriously net worth negative after taking on the housing loans as leverages).

Do understand what is market crash - almost undoubtedly attributable to the popping of a bubble, creating a situation wherein the majority of investors are trying to flee the market at the same time and consequently incurring massive losses. Attempting to avoid more losses, investors during a crash are panic selling, hoping to unload their declining Properties onto other investors. This panic selling contributes to the declining market, which eventually crashes and affects everyone.

One thing about the leveraged properties, you may not need to sell it yourself, your friendly banker will force sell for you. Does it sound good?

"While we are free to choose our actions, we are not free to choose the consequences of our actions." - Stephen R. Covey

Friday, 20 November 2009

Goals - Part 2

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/goals.html

Someone set a Saving Goal of $50K in a year and told himself: "I'm still going to do it nevertheless. Armed with this suicide bomber mentality, I toiled month after month. I'm going to die trying it if I have to. When you announce to the universe that you wanted this so badly, things will bend over backwards to make it happen for you."


Yes, it is possible for your Saving Goal. You can hit your target if you do whatever it takes to get there.

But, there is one goal that may not be true - Trading Goal. Why?
"Stock picking is part science, part art, part luck, part intuition, and always uncertain - "not precisely knowing." - ???

I realized that for Trading Goal, no matter how hard you try, you may not even hit 50% of your Goal and not even you threaten to jump down from 50th storey. The Market doesn't know you and don't care whether you jump or not.

To consistently make money from the market required more than hard work and determination. It also required plenty of luck and intuition. Not sure is there any way to improve our luck and intuition?

If you come across any method that can help to improve luck and intuition, let us know.

SCI Weekly - more to come?



More to come? Some are better informed?

DBS Weekly



DBS is now back to May 08 price level. The recovery in DBS is amazing.

DOW - Not surprising, it follows the trend and corrected


Thursday, 19 November 2009

DBS - Either breaking higher or consolidating at much higher box






Congratulations if you are like me still holding on to its right issue. You will be rewarded for your patience and confidence in

Understanding stock movements

By R SIVANITHY


THE most popular phrase that stock market commentators use to describe rising prices is 'bargain hunting' and when the market falls, we often hear it was because of 'profit-taking'. Sometimes, these variations are used - 'demand was greater than supply' or 'there were more buyers than sellers in the market'.

But do stock prices really rise because of bargain hunting or fall because supply exceeded demand? Or is the use of these descriptions nothing more than commentators and analysts taking the easy way out and not wanting to think through the real reasons why the market moved the way it did?

Equating buying with rising prices and selling with falling prices is actually wrong because the two activities are two sides of the same coin. For every transaction done in the market, there has to be an equal number of buyers and sellers; the absence of one set of parties means no transaction takes place. If no transaction is concluded, then prices do not move.

What actually happens when prices do move is that shares have been exchanged among investors whose opinions and expectations have changed about the market or the companies concerned.

Rises and falls

For instance, prices rise because investor expectations have become positive. It may be that the company has announced a big, profitable deal. Or perhaps the government has just announced an upgrade in its economic forecast that could directly benefit that particular company.

Investors will then pay a higher price for stocks which they think will be later worth more.

Conversely, prices fall because investors have reversed their outlook and are willing to transact at lower prices. Their outlook for that stock or the market as a whole has changed to negative.

Similarly, saying that 'demand was greater than supply' to explain a price rise is wrong because stocks do not follow the traditional demand-supply frame work.

In a perfectly competitive market, demand for goods will be more when the price is low and less when the price is high. For example, a cell phone or a pair of shoes will sell in greater quantities if it is priced at $100 instead of $500.

Stocks, however, do not follow this predictable pattern. For example, when Creative Technology's shares fell to $5 during the regional crisis six years ago, analysts called a 'sell' on the counter.

When it rose above $60 a few months later, everyone said it was a 'buy' and the price duly rose to $66. In other words, demand for stocks is different from demand for any other goods that we know of and people will chase prices higher and higher. Recall the Internet boom of 1999-2000 and the fact that stocks rose by huge amounts, by as much as 40-50 times. Those same stocks either do not exist any more or trade for a fraction of their previous prices.

In his 1938 book The Theory of Investment Value, Harvard professor John BurrWilliams said: 'When the price of a stock moves, it moves because the demand curve moves, not because the quantity demanded changes.' A shifting demand curve is indicative of shifting preferences and, perhaps, sentiment.

Misleading phrases

What about the classic 'bargain hunting' and 'profit-taking', two phrases which convey no useful information to the reader or listener and whose common use actually mislead rather than informs?

Consider, for example, 'profit-taking', a phrase which implies falling prices because investors were cashing out. But what about those who bought? Presumably these buyers want to make money later, so why not say prices rose because of 'profit-making'?

Similarly, 'bargain hunting', which implies people bought because the items were cheap. However, the sellers obviously didn't think the stocks were bargains when they sold, so why focus only on the buyers?

The fact is that most of what we hear and read about markets today is misleading and is based on the wrong use of economic concepts. Stocks don't move because of demand exceeding supply or because people indulged in profit-taking or bargain hunting, they move because expectations change about the future.

They also move because greed and fear are present in differing quantities at any one time. Sentiment is the single most influential factor at work behind price movements. The sooner everyone recognizes this, the better.

Goals

 "Man is a goal-seeking animal. His life only has meaning if he is reaching out and striving for his goals." - Aristotle

And I believe it's very important to have goals. They help to keep us focused and motivated, giving us a sense of purpose and direction.

SCI breaking a new 52W High



SCI reported flat earning and yet can break a new high?

Wednesday, 18 November 2009

The Bandwagon Theory: A Glimpse At How The Market Really Works?

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/09/think-of-investing-in-stock-market-as.html

Another story of the stock market ...

Author: ?????

Imagine a bandwagon that is rolling forward at a quickened pace. Music that is very pleasing to the ear is being played from speakers from each side of this bandwagon, and a few people on the back of the wagon are partying, having the time of their lives.


The music, loud and clear, starts to attract many other onlookers that happen to be idly standing on the sidelines. These onlookers, unable to resist the sweet sounds being played, run to join the party that seems to be going on.

Progressively, more and more onlookers jump on the back of this bandwagon, and those few who were enjoying the first phase of the party begin to leave.

As the crowd of the new party animals on this bandwagon grows larger, the bandwagon finds it harder and harder to move forward at the same pace. It slows, enabling more and more late onlookers, witnessing the great fun, the chance to jump on.

The crowd grows even larger. Larger and larger the crowd grows, until the bandwagon, heavily laden with bodies of drunken party animals, can no longer move forward.

It finally comes to a complete stop.

Now that the bandwagon is at a complete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining the party is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board.

But the nature of the bandwagon is to move forward. It’s motionless state is unnatural, and therefore cannot last. It tries to move forward but can’t.

The crowd piled on back is too large. It must free itself of the heavy burden. And it does.

It quickly shifts itself into reverse, and jolts backwards, knocking a few of the party animals off the back.

The music stops.

Puzzled faces from the crowd begin to emerge. Before anyone figures out what’s going on, another backwards jerk takes place, only this one is move violent. Another large group of people get thrown off the back.

Now reality sets in.

The FUN has turned into a NIGHTMARE of EPIC proportions, and panic begins to run rampant. Some decide to jump off to their deaths. Another thrust backwards sends an even larger group of drunken, offbalance people, hurling to the muddy ground.

It doesn’t stop.

The jolts backward continue, each successive one more violent than the last. At this point, only a few die-hard dwellers are holding on, their very lives hanging in the balance by a very thin thread.

Failing to be completely free, the bandwagon angrily puts the pedal to the metal, and this final thrust backward is so vicious that it’s front wheels lift high off the ground, momentarily suspending the wagon in a perpendicular position.

The last of the hangers-on crash to the ground, broken and maimed to no end.

At this point, a new group of onlookers emerge from the nearby woods. They are clean and serene. Each move they make is deliberate and powerfully energetic, for they did not take part in the tragedy that just transpired. Or did they?

A few of the dejected souls lying on the ground take a closer look, a look that reveals something very interesting.

This seemingly new group is not new at all. It is the same group that was seen quietly exiting the party before it came to it’s violent end.

An even closer examination by a few more beaten-down onlookers reveals something even more stunning.

This group not only exited the party early, they were the originators of it!

“My God,” someone exclaims. Paralyzed, and unable to move freely, all these dejected souls can do is watch, as the masters of the game go back to work, again

No sooner does this bandwagon’s wheels hit the ground, than this professional platoon bolts for the wagon. In a flash they are onboard. Easy

The bandwagon, now free of the larger crowd, can move forward freely and gracefully, comfortably carrying the more astute group with it.


It’s pace quickens, and before long a smooth elegant stride is in place. After a few more miles of uninterrupted movement, someone from the masterful group flips on a switch, and suddenly the loud sound of entertaining music starts up again.

Someone yells, “OK everyone. Here they come. Let’s do it again.”

Within moments, those who were the former victims of the backward crash become interested again. The music almost calling them from the grave.

And once more the never ending cycle repeats.

(the hidden wisdom embedded in these metaphors, will allow you to claim a higher level of understanding and mastery at the game of the market).


--------------------------------------

CreateWealth8888:

Do you now understand how the game is being played?

DOW overcome profit taking again!



Will STI do a catch up?

Tuesday, 17 November 2009

Monday, 16 November 2009

STI - Finally breakthrough 2700 with power!







Pareto's Law In Investing?

Financial & Investment Dictionary: Pareto's Law

Theory that the pattern of income distribution is constant, historically and geographically, regardless of taxation or welfare policies; also called law of the trivial many and the critical few or 80-20 law. Thus, if 80% of a nation's income will benefit only 20% of the population, the only way to improve the economic lot of the poor is to increase overall output and income levels.


Other applications of the law include the idea that in most business activities a small percentage of the work force produces the major portion of output or that 20% of the customers account for 80% of the dollar volume of sales. The law is attributed to Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian-Swiss engineer and economist (1848-1923).

Pareto is also credited with the concept called Paretian optimum (or optimality) that resources are optimally distributed when an individual cannot move into a better position without putting someone else into a worse position.
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CreateWealth8888:

Pareto's principle can be true in your Portfolio Management. 20% of those stocks (multi-baggers) in your Portfolio are providing 80% of the returns. Likewise, 80% of losses are contributed by 20% of losers.



The rest are small gains and losses here and there; and don't have any serious impact to total or net returns of your Portfolio.

Take note of Pareto Principle and apply them to your Portfolio Management, let the top 20% of winners run; and prevent the top 20% of the losers from creating havoc and cut losses fast.

Sunday, 15 November 2009

Path To Financial Freedom? - Part 2


The path to Financial Freedom is easier and simpler if you choose to stay single. You only need to take care of your own personal future needs. But, if you choose to get married; welcome to the World of Dependencies.

You will need to provide adequately for your dependents. The path to Financial Freedom  is going to be very challenging; and be mentally prepared for any unexpected surprises that will put your plan into jeopardy. Did you see that there are more than one investing goal?



How will you choose your path to build up your wealth in the journey towards Financial Freedom? Where does your money come from?



You either work very hard to climb the corporate ladder.

In addition, you may invest in your own businesses or other people's businesses (stock market) to build up more wealth.



I have elected to invest in stocks and be an active stock investor who will spend time and effort to get it done.

I don't speculate in non-asset financial instruments like futures, options, forex etc because I am not a good speculator and I hate stop losses so speculation is out for me.  http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/09/gambling-investment-speculation.html

I also don't invest in overseas stocks for two reasons:

  • Currency risks is a double edged sword - I like to fight the market with one-edge knife so that I know where is the sharp blade is.


  • Monitoring one local market is really taking up lots of time and effort. Singapore market is a lot slower than oversea market. I don't mind the slowness as I am a fisherman.

Does it really matter where you earn that $ from?

Path To Financial Freedom? - Part 1

Why do we want to seek the path to Financial Freedom (or in my case Financial Independence - getting out of Rat Race: http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/10/what-is-rat-race.html and http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/04/four-financial-progressive-stages.html)


The official Retirement Age in Singapore is 62, and optional at 60 i.e. if you opt to retire at 60, then your company is required to pay you whatever you are entitled for retirement benefits. The retirement benefits provided by company will vary from company to company.

The Government will raise the official Retirement Age to 65, and not sure how will it affect the optional retirement age at 60? Maybe, the government will raise the optional to 62. Sorry, you got to work longer.

Why do we want to retire early from our paid jobs? May be all works suck as an employee? http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2009/11/all-work-sucks.html

For me, it is not really the works that are suck; but more of years of seeing those ex-seniors being slaughtered by Mgmt to improve their bottom line. These ex-seniors are once HORSES; but later ended up like COWS plowing the field, got milked by the management, and later got slaughtered and replaced by future young HORSES. Older staff are depreciating assets and always deem not cheap to be hired.

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2008/06/old-employee-depreciating-asset.html




That is the reality of corporate life and only fews can escape from becoming COWS. Never be fooled by your Job Security.

Open your eyes wide and start thinking as early as possible before it is too late to prepare anything that have lasting impact to your Wealth Life Cycle.

SPH - Another case of breaking down of a defensive stock?



Does SPH have real good expertise in property development and have an eye for good value land parcel?


Do you see how it tumbled after it announced its overpaid bid. Did you see the huge surge in volume and that is the end of the up trend; the trend reversed and could be another leg down? Are dividend yield players ready to catch a falling knife?

Saturday, 14 November 2009

Dow Theory - The Three Phases Of Primary Trends

Investopedia.com – Your Source For Investing Education.

Since the most vital trend to understand is the primary trend, this leads into the third tenet of Dow theory, which states that there are three phases to every primary trend – the accumulation phase (distribution phase), the public participation phase and a panic phase (excess phase).

Let us now take a look at each of the three phases as they apply to both bull and bear markets. Primary Upward Trend (Bull Market) The Accumulation Phase The first stage of a bull market is referred to as the accumulation phase, which is the start of the upward trend. This is also considered the point at which informed investors start to enter the market.
 
The accumulation phase typically comes at the end of a downtrend, when everything is seemingly at its worst. But this is also the time when the price of the market is at its most attractive level because by this point most of the bad news is priced into the market, thereby limiting downside risk and offering attractive valuations.
 
However, the accumulation phase can be the most difficult one to spot because it comes at the end of a downward move, which could be nothing more than a secondary move in a primary downward trend - instead of being the start of a new uptrend. This phase will also be characterized by persistent market pessimism, with many investors thinking things will only get worse.
 
From a more technical standpoint, the start of the accumulation phase will be marked by a period of price consolidation in the market. This occurs when the downtrend starts to flatten out, as selling pressure starts to dissipate. The mid-to-latter stages of the accumulation phase will see the price of the market start to move higher.


Figure 1: the accumulation phase

A new upward trend will be confirmed when the market doesn't move to a consecutively lower low and high.

Public Participation Phase

When informed investors entered the market during the accumulation phase, they did so with the assumption that the worst was over and a recovery lay ahead. As this starts to materialize, the new primary trend moves into what is known as the public participation phase. During this phase, negative sentiment starts to dissipate as business conditions - marked by earnings growth and strong economic data - improve. As the good news starts to permeate the market, more and more investors move back in, sending prices higher. This phase tends not only to be the longest lasting, but also the one with the largest price movement. It's also the phase in which most technical and trend traders start to take long positions, as the new upward primary trend has confirmed itself - a sign these participants have waited for.


Figure 2: the public participation phase

The Excess Phase

As the market has made a strong move higher on the improved business conditions and buying by market participants to move starts to age, we begin to move into the excess phase. At this point, the market is hot again for all investors. The last stage in the upward trend, the excess phase, is the one in which the smart money starts to scale back its positions, selling them off to those now entering the market. At this point, the market is marked by, as Alan Greenspan might say, "irrational exuberance".

The perception is that everything is running great and that only good things lie ahead. This is also usually the time when the last of the buyers start to enter the market - after large gains have been achieved. Like lambs to the slaughter, the late entrants hope that recent returns will continue.

Unfortunately for them, they are buying near the top. During this phase, a lot of attention should be placed on signs of weakness in the trend, such as strengthening downward moves. Also, if the upward moves start to show weakness, it could be another sign that the trend may be near the start of a primary downtrend.


Figure 3: the excess phase

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CreateWealth8888:
 

I believe Accumulation phase is over. So are we still in public Participation Phase or already in The Excess Phase? Recognizing it can make a huge difference to your portfoli management.
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